11 basis points higher for your aussie 10year and we are ever so closer to hitting 5 for the u. S. Dollar yield. You are seeing a lot of the pain, the malaysian ring in the lowest since 1998. The south korean won, despite the bank saying they have to stay restrictive for some time. We are watching thailand and watching india, too. Rishaad absolutely. Having a look at what is going on in bangkok. That market just opening and having a look at what is actually happening. The index falling about. 9 at the start of the session. Looking at also the rupee in particular. Just off the day before yesterdays record low, so edging toward that as the dollar is marginally stronger. An fte futures indicating what is going on in the region and reflecting that. Not Much Movement for the but the bhat. Yvonne weaker home prices out of china. The middle east conflict weighing on markets this morning. President biden signaled his backing for israel as a vows to crush hamas, and during that 7. 5hour trip to tel aviv, he did increase his support for israel here. Also to allay concerns about this deepening humanitarian crisis in gaza while pledging 100 million in aid. President biden we are going to make sure you have what you need to protect your people, to defend your nation. For decades, we have ensured israels qualitative military edge, and later this week, im going to ask the United States congress for an unprecedented support package for israels defense. Rishaad Michael Heath is with us now out of sydney. What were the Key Takeaways from this visit . Michael as much as anything, it was just a show of solidarity. I think there were two tracks the president was hoping for. One was to show solidarity, to stand with israel, for an american president to be in tel aviv next to a war zone. The other was to meet with the regions surrounding israel and try to send a message to hezbollah, iran, to other proxies, that the u. S. Has got israels back and that we should keep the war localized. The difficulty was with this hospital blast, the jordanian king, the egyptian president pulled out of it, so that side of it, that regional effort, keeping things contained at a regional level basically fell apart. Really, it was just a u. S. Expression, as it traditionally does, of solidarity with israel. It is a u. S. President , an 80yearold flying in, 7. 5hour trip, it is very impressive, but nonetheless, it was only limited in terms of what he got out of it. Yvonne what do we have to watch out for next . Michael the u. K. Has a series of leaders coming in. We had the german chancellor before president biden. Now we have the u. K. Prime minister with a similar message of solidarity and trying to talk more to people in the region, but again, what we are waiting on at the end of the day is this ground offensive. Biden said that he spoke with egypts president , and they are going to open the border and bring in some humanitarian aid, but from all reports, it looks like things are very difficult in gaza, even outside the civilian deaths, which are very high. We are sort of in this waiting game of when does the ground offensive began, and how bad could the casualties get . Yvonne thank you. An update on what has been going on after that israel trip by the president. Lets talk more about geopolitics. Uncertainty there also way on the market. The cio of equities multiasset sustainability at mng investments. Great to have you back on the program. It is hard to really make sense of all this right now across markets. You are dealing with higher for longer and then you add geopolitical risk to all this. Should we just throw in the towel when it comes to risk assets for the rest of the year . Hi, yvonne. What is happening in the middle east is an unspeakable tragedy, and it touches all of us personally in a very profound way, and it does Impact Market sentiment, but from a fundamental standpoint, the mechanism of transmission is really oil price in the event we have tightening of sanctions on iran. The main driver of fundamentals right now in markets continues to be the higher for longer. If you want knowledge that Central Banks have most likely are going to stay at these levels for some time. Rishaad there is a growing sentiment that this time it is different in the middle east. Do you think that people should really give more credence to that . Things like this have been shortlived in the past. What is different this time about it in your view, which could perhaps mean something lasting longer term . It is difficult to say this is a long term issue, which flares up in tragic ways, and this is this has definitely been extremely tragic. It will solve perhaps it will take time. Not sure if we can say that this is different from a market standpoint at this point in time. Yvonne so what do you do in the short term . Obviously, theres a lot of talk about where to park your money right now. People start to think maybe the short end of the curve seems to be a good place to hide. Where are the safe spots in this market right now . I would not be trading what is happening in the middle east, as tragic as that is, unless, again, we have a flaring up of sanctions against iran, which is going to affect oil markets, given the tightening supply demand we are seeing their. We are really looking at what is happening across the global economy. We do believe we are likely to see a slowdown in disposable income on the consumer and the corporate side, and we have moved some assets from equities to fixed income. We have gone underweight in equities on multiasset strategies. Still quite balanced, so we have not run out the door on equities, but we have been extremely selective, and we are taking advantage of the yields at the long end of the curve. Rishaad you have been talking about the elusive recession. You just mentioned a slowdown. Where would the slowdown actually come from in the u. S. In particular . The consumer seems to be holding up. We have seen savings after covid essentially go to, well, zero, and on top of that, we have things like Student Debt Relief also on the back burner. We have other forms of capital which were helping to lift up the consumer perhaps dissipating. What is your view, then . Do we get no lending . Whats the deal . Thats the 60,000 question. It is most likely we will have a slowdown. You saw the results at bank of america where the ceo spoke about Consumer Spending slowing down. We are starting to see some signs at the corporate level, but how far and how deep it will be is very difficult to understand, but a slowdown is likely to happen because if you think about the fact that Interest Rates have really not hurt corporates and households in the states particularly until now because Many Americans on longterm mortgages and Many Companies have not refinanced yet. Once that happens we have a big refinancing while in 20252026, so you would expect companies to refinance more in 2024. That should hurt the ability to spend in other areas, so we do expect that slowdown. Again, it is a matter of understanding how deep and also how long it will take. Yvonne you said you were going to take advantage of the long end of the curve. Im just wondering, how do you factor in term premium, which is getting more positive these days . Also, theres a whole lot of supply that people are dealing with, too, in this fixed income market. Is the long end of the curve in some ways likely to stay elevated in terms of yield . What we have seen historically is that at the end of a fed rate hike, that is also the turnaround point for, for example, the u. S. 10year yield. We feel we are closer to that peak and we have ever been. Timing is always difficult. There is volatility, obviously, also related to geopolitics, and you are right, there will be an increase in supply. We believe there is enough liquidity on the sidelines to offset some of that supply, and we would also expect the long end of the curve will serve as insurance, should the macro backdrop really get worse. Rishaad what impact are higher rates having on individual companies in the u. S. , and are you concerned . We had one fed president talking about we have a problem with the commercial real estate side of things. I think your view is you should not be buying benchmark, so what should you be . It is very important to be selective at this point. Just look at the Balance Sheet. Make sure companies have strong cash flows, make sure that companies dont need to refinance themselves and their growth either in the market or through bank lending. It is really a matter of seeing the strength of the company in this market. By the way, we will have an earnings season that will probably be similar to the past one. We will see companies in the same sector faring very differently, and ultimately, this is due to how the Balance Sheet is managed, how the Pricing Power is set. I think it will also be a very interesting earnings season, the one we are entering. Rishaad thank you so much for joining us. Coming up later on, we will be speaking exclusively with the chief executive of map my india, competing against the likes of google. We will get a look at what they are expanding into, what their plans look like, and their strategy. That is all on the way. Yvonne more times of stress in chinas property sector. New home prices falling at the fastest pace in almost a year in september, so the deepest drop then we saw in the previous four straight months of contractions now. Figures also add to doubts over if beijings measures are enough to revive the sector. Rishaad just to add to the problem, it is not exactly good news for any Developers Come up with Property Market it is not exactly good news for any developers, but the Property Market will weigh on them. The grace period is ending for dollarbond payments. When is a bond repayment made and when is a default by default . Yvonne that is the that is the key question. We have been scrambling through all these bond circular financers, and the key answer will come from bondholders and trustees who are waiting for such a default notice that will come. One of those possibilities, 25 of bond holders are noticing trustees that a default event has happened, and we have not seen that yet. Yvonne i dont know. What is next then . You are watching what these bondholders say. Are we starting to think about restructuring and what this would look like . The advisors role is key in this process. The country is in talks with some of them already, so that has kicked off, but its going to be a long process. If we wind up back to look at the drop in home prices, this is 11 months straight drop for chinas home market, which was boosting the growth of the countrys economy. Now it is lagging, so if Country Garden has all these unfinished projects, once they put in more money to build them, what kind of prices are they going to sell them when the entire market is dropping . Are they going to make any profits on those projects . Rishaad the point is they dont need to raise money. The family could help a little bit. They have a very rich family. On top of that, even if you sell them, they are already sold because people start paying their mortgages when they sign the paper. They are in an invidious position. Thats true. If you look at the personal wealth of the family rishaad because it is tied up in Country Garden. Yvonne thank you. Our bond and loan reporter on the latest when it comes to Country Garden as well. We are also watching some of these not just china but hong kong developers. We are seeing quite a decent price action here to the downside. There was a local report that they might look at cutting some of the curbs here. It looks like it was less than expected, so i think the market is a little disappointed by that. You have a whole rates environment that is roiling think developer space, but the developers index, i think we are still further down from 2009 levels. Rishaad exactly. This is a report that the chief executive spoke about the smaller than expected cut. We have analysts weighing in. The general belief is the Hong Kong Government cannot make a big change to the existing mechanism. Investors might be expecting more as well. We have a lot more coming up. This is bloomberg. Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. Its possible. With james hardie™. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management knows its easy to get lost in investment research. Get help with j. P morgan personal advisors. Hey, david ready to get started . Work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. So great getting to know you, lets take a look at your new investment plan. Ok, great this should have you moving in the right direction. Thanks jen. Get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. We are seeing increasing evidence of m a and other challenges building and what we expect momentum to continue this year, we expect most of the activity to materialize in 2024. The minute you see the fed indicate they have stopped raising rates, the m a and underwriting fell under will explode. Yvonne called in the Morgan Stanley ceo speaking at the companys earnings report. We saw shares plunge the most since 2020 after steelmakers posted a loss. Sonali Morgan Stanley on wednesday rounded at the big six banks reporting results for the Third Quarter of this year with Morgan Stanley saying that Wealth Management revenue fell short of expectations. Morgan stanley has the biggest wealth and Asset Management business out of its three big Investment Banking rivals, and it also fell short of Net Interest Income for the quarter. It also said that investing Investment Banking revenue had fallen more than Goldman Sachss and jp morgans for the Third Quarter. With that said, Morgan Stanleys ceo and his rival have signs that dealmaking could come back. There are green shoots for dealmaking in the future, and these investment banks would be poised to capitalize on it should the market start to stabilize. Rishaad also with earnings, netflix shares soaring as much as 15 in the extended session. The streaming company saying it is raising prices for some customers after posting its best quarter for subscriber growth in years. It added over 8 million customers in the Third Quarter, which was way ahead of forecast, and it did manage to boost its overall Subscriber Base to more than 247 million. Staying with corporate, we have apple ceo tim cook winning backing from Chinas Congress minister for sharing the dividend chinese market. He said beijing welcomes the tech firm and other multinationals to engage in whenwhen development in china. Cooks second visit to the country comes as apple faces slightly shy iphone 15 sales amid china further limiting use of its products for government employees. Openai is in talks to sell existing employees shares at an 86 billion valuation. Bloomberg learning the started behind chatgpt is negotiating with potential investors now. If it is successful, it would dilute. Dilute from current shareholders. Japanese banks after a record twoday outage to the domestic transfer fund. Domestic banks will reimburse transfer fees and also some of the penalties which have been incurred. The outage was the worst in the systems 50yearlong history and affected more than two million outbound remittances. Lets have a look this u. S. Congressional committee as it is targeting sequoia capital. It is investigating the Venture Capital firms investments in chinese tech companies. The committee wanting more information on the companys investments into Industry Groups like semiconductors as well as artificial intelligence. The panel also looking to sequoias investment in three firms amidst increasing tensions between the u. S. And china. Yvonne we are lower by about 1 in the shanghai composite. The csi 300 reached those levels back in october already. October 2022 lows, we are getting close to that. We are watching very closely other movers as well. His earnings picture, the middle east conflict, china home prices. It is all weighing down across sentiment here. You can focus on some of the evs and with tesla earnings, you are seeing most of these ev suppliers alike that are following. Hong kong China Developers with yields spiking and that weighing on overall sentiment. Of course, no word yet on what is next for Country Garden. You are seeing the hang seng down some 2 right now. There was talk about that tax duty, stamp duty cut. Reduction not as big as expected. Rishaad absolutely. Smaller than anticipated cut. I believe it is on the 25 of october that we are looking at the inevitable cut. Not being finalized, though, the report saying. It does plan to maintain some of the cooling measures, but any steps taken are not likely to be enough to be able to lift up sentiment. We have high mortgage rates, and we also have many of these properties also suffering from the fallout of what we have been witnessing on the mainland as well. Lets look at the macro movers. We do have, of course yvonne not looking at Dollar Strength, but look at the rupee. It is blaring red. The highest we have seen since 2020. Korean won continues to see weakness here. It has continued to be risk aversion across the board. We have plenty more ahead. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Before i started playing basketball, i was kind of quiet. I wasnt really that confident or outgoing. But now, with basketball, i feel like a leader. Yo, cayden sport for good means to me that ill be able to give back to my family and my community. Goals can be accomplished, dreams can be accomplished, but dreams are just dreams if you dont go out and try to achieve them. Learn more about sport for good at laureususa. Com. Rishaad there we go. They are getting ready to go for lunch in shanghai. We have the shanghai composite index hitting the lowest level we have witnessed it this year. The csi in focus there, 1. 6 . The decline in property, which is not helping things. We are looking past that gdp figure, which was strongerthanexpected. The Housing Market continues for a fourth month of declines in prices. All of this contributing to just ultimately a situation where the glass is, i suppose, three quarters empty. Yvonne yeah. Even that better data, the macro side, is not helping things. You take a look at how the rest of the markets are doing. Of course, japan going out of that lunch break here, this is how things are playing out. 2 declines across the board. The nikkei, there you go, to percent losses. Theres a very interesting story coming out from our colleague interviewing an exboard member, boj member about the possibility of what normalization will look like. Certainly that moving in a little bit earlier here as well. We are bracing for a mixed week with the yen amid reports authorities will intervene to support the weakening currency. Also, there was a story about this exboard member saying they are going to raise by year end. Quite an interesting interview you guys did. How significant is it that this exboard member is saying they could get out by the end of the year . Yes, he was a board member under the former governor in 2016 and 2021. Is it significant because he was known as somebody quite close to kuroda and somebody who sort of represents the consensus view within the board. What i mean by that is he is quite good at giving were policy may be going. For example, he told us in an interview in the past that the boj might expand its 10year yield range to 20, and the boj ended up doing exactly that in december 2022. He has already left the board now, but it is certainly worth paying attention to what he is saying. Rishaad absolutely. Hes got a bit of form. The logic here, what is behind it . Saying negative rates would be less impactful than raising the ceiling on 10year yields, for instance . Right. What he is saying is a little surprising. It is not the existing market consensus view here. He is saying basically that the boj is likely to scrap negative deals before it does anything to the y cc. His logic behind that is that in his view, real Interest Rates have fallen so much, at its lowest since 2016, that even if you scrap negative rates, it will not have that much of an impact on the real economy, so that is his view. He also says that because negative rates only impact a certain amount of commercial banks accounts with the boj, it does not have that much of an impact on the real economy. Compare that to raising the ceiling on 10year yields, and he is arguing that that could have much more of an impact on both the Financial Markets and japans fiscal conditions overall. That is his outlook. Yvonne that is his logic. How different is it to the view we are seeing and the consensus in the market . Right. It is quite different. For example, with the polls that we conducted last month with boj watchers, economists, the survey basically said that none of them saw negative rates being scrapped by the end of the year. Only 9 said it was likely in january. A further 50 said it is likely between april and july. Either way, his view is a lot more hawkish than the views out there at the moment. Rishaad thank you so much for that. Bloomberg economy and government editor there for japan and tokyo. We will cover Bloomberg Business strategy with the ceo of map myindia, a company trying to compete with the likes of alphabets google maps. That is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Based on your goals, whatever they may be. All that planning has paid off. Looks like you can make this work. We can make this work. And the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice . I can make this work. That seems to be universal. I can make this work. I can make this work. No wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. Because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. Yvonne the latest news we got yesterday was about india extending curbs on exports in a fresh bid to protect mystic supplies. Lets bring in our asia agriculture reporter. Tell us what was the thinking by this. Why is government so concerned about domestic food prices . [indiscernible] that is a concern for the government. Rishaad is it a complete ban or could we get an extension on all this as well . The government has been prompted to extend the restriction. It is not a complete ban. Elections are coming. Some cases have elections next month, and the general election is expected next year. Yvonne what does this mean for sugar prices if this ban is extended for the Global Market . India is the major sugar producer in the world. At the same time producers are experiencing problems. His is basically a problem for Global Supply it is basically a problem for Global Supply. Im bullish on the market. Rishaad thank you so much for that. Our asia agriculture reporter joining us. Even this problem with the monsoon, etc. , etc. , has really been affecting some of these crop rises as we have been reporting. Consumptionrelated stocks we may well see again as the government saying they are going to increase support prices. We have also earnings for the likes of consumer staple companies. They are also at the moment feeling a little bit of pressure right now, but this, of course, is premarket. We get underway properly about five minutes from now in the cash session. Yvonne we are watching one stuck in particular as well, map my india. This has been pretty remarkable. They are a Navigation Company in india that competes against the like of alphabets google maps. It is one of mark mobius favorites when it comes to india. We are pleased to have the ceo of the Company Joining us from new delhi. Thank you so much for joining us. The stock has just gone nuts. It has been interesting. You have been talking about the need to expand overseas given your success in india. Give us the rationale of why and what opportunities. Thanks for having me on the show. We have been Building Digital map data and Software Products and platforms in india since 1995. We realized earlier on for unlimited use cases for automotive, enterprise goods prizes enterprises, for governments, and even app users, so the case is a Strong Financial company with bright prospects, but internationally, we can be super competitive on two fronts. One is a Software Stack along navigationable collective, but also on Digital Transformation platforms for geospatial systems and force management. If we can map a complex country like india from scratch, we definitely can do this for many emerging markets as well as emerging markets across the country, so we do see a Bright Future in the medium to long term for international prospects, but india is definitely the strong focus. Immediately, there are Growth Prospects here. Rishaad where you are going to expand to is part of the question. The other thing is youre offering, why would it be different than anyone else . Do you have a unique selling point than anyone else . Of course, mapwise, it will be country and jurisdictionspecific, but overall, what separates you from others who are doing the same thing . Like i said, on map data, we have the most influence for india but on a global level. We are building a High Definition information map using drones, satellites, lasers, essentially a metaverse. That allows us to do this with any country in the future, but beyond that, the software we have that was built into vehicles, embedded in the vehicle system, all the companion apps, all the companion vehicles, that is quite unique on its own. The distribution we have for analytics, for geospatial systems is unique in itself, so we see a strong essay is placed the map play we have in india. We will have to compete in the rest of the world, but we believe based on the thousands of use cases we have solved in india, based on our ability to effectively compete globally, and monopoly on the consumer side which has made it difficult. We think it will be able to compete in whichever markets, starting off in Southeast Asia and then looking about emerging markets. Yvonne how do you see the scope of the drones business in india going overall . What specific cases or use cases are you planning to expand to . The drone market in india has just taken off in the last few years. There are very few players of scale. We have taken a strong position as a whole stack Drone Solutions provider. We are helping the government with smart cities, with property , 3d property mapping. On the real estate side, on the tourism metaverse side. Some tons of use cases. So with public sector, private sector, there are defense opportunities. We think this is a third pillar to our business besides maps and ip, and we intend to go deeper into that in the time to come. Rishaad you have really struck collaborations with the likes of apple, bmw, and amazon. How do you leverage how are you leveraging those collaborations, and who is next . If you look at it, all the global multinationals, leading players in automotive, enterprises, tech, or corporates, partner with us for india. We are doing deep solutions and deep collaborations with them for india. This is a large market. We are looking to replicate a lot of what we are doing with them in india in other countries. That is part of our internationalization strategy. Yvonne can you tell us more about your consumerfacing app . What has been the response so far . That is something people thought impossible, given that google has monopolized when it comes to android phones. Nobody could have thought we could have dislodged them as the number one app on the app store and the number one Navigation App downloaded on the google play store. We have seen millions of downloads in the last few months. The reason is there are many more features such as showing 3d junction views or giving you speed camera views. It can connect to gadgets for your vehicle as well as connect to many more gamma five social feeding social features. It is getting traction in india. We take baby steps on b2c internationally. In india, besides b2b and b2c, we see the light for b2c business, and as this google monopoly on bundles in the eye, we think that will be a plus for us. Rishaad you got b2b, b2c, what about be to b2 military . Is the Indian Government interested . Are they a customer of yours at the moment and how much interest are you getting from other militaries . Two parts on this. The indian defense, we are working closely, but we are grateful to them. Selfreliant solutions on mapping. Even in g20, we played a radical role when it came to exhaustive movement, which is kind of a high security measure, but we look for defense forces, and the other part we do internationally is just like how we have done map my india. Theres a stack just like the indian digital stack which has been adopted in other countries. Every country where selfreliance is important in every country, we can help every country be full stack independent and selfreliant rather than being dependent on one company for one country. We provided the mapping needs in a nonmonopolistic way. That is the national map my nation approach. Of course, in india, we are doing this for the indian defense. Yvonne im in terms of how the competition is. I know you dont have that many domestic rivals, but there was some new regulations of relaxing of restrictions early last year on collection of the use of High Resolution data. Is that a risk to you that maybe there will be more competition in the space now domestically . We have been working as an Indian Company in this space for the last 25 years Building Products and platforms. Other Indian Companies also had that opportunity. It is not like we were a startup innovating on technology. We have not seen other players be able to emerge from the indian sector. The global competition was google. They could have, like they have in many countries, crushed domestic competition. They still can as an International Large power. We are one of the few companies in the world where the domestic players are strong. We think gives us a strong ability to compete with domestic or Even International players. The older you are, the more use cases you have. It is harder for people to compete over time, so that is with a very few Mapping Companies in the world. Rishaad a really good to talk to you. Thanks for joining us. All right, more on the way, a market check and more. This is bloomberg. Yvonne we are looking at emfx asia very closely. You talk about where the weakness lies is the indonesian currency. Korean won continuing to see weakness despite the be ok sounding a little bit hawkish over where rates will be. Jakarta composite looking like this right now. We are down about. 8 . About three hours to go before that decision. Rishaad looking for the benchmark rate to be unchanged. This really does build up risks for the indonesian currency. Bank of indonesia not going to do anything. Why . It looks like it will be the ninth straight month that the bank of indonesia will hold its policy rate, but it looks like it will be less comfortable doing that this time around. On the one hand you have inflation so low. The bank of indonesia governors saying if he was looking at domestic indications, he would have already started easing, but they have to be wary of global spillovers. At the same time, bank of indonesia has resisted the lower the lure of rate hikes to bolster the currency. What you should expect later is that they will talk a lot about policy tools such as fx intervention or the sale of securities to bolster the currency. Yvonne you mentioned what has been driving the currency. Is it mostly on Dollar Strength why we are seeing it at the lowest since april 2020 . Yes. A couple of things are bringing down the currency. First of all, exports, now out of the equation. You have coal and Palm Oil Prices starting to normalize. The current account has swung back to a deficit. Really its about how outflows because the bank of indonesia and the fed have a spread for results and for investors, thats not enough. For the currency, you can expect a bit more volatility ahead because in november if they hike another quarterpoint, it will bring key rates to unprecedented parity. Rishaad thank you very much. Yvonne thats why youve got one economist out there saying they might need a hike. Indonesia government reported joining us out of jakarta. Take a look when it comes to these markets right now. It continues to be a downhill story. Stocks and bonds falling in tandem. The dollar still firm across the board. You are seeing a mixed picture across commodities. Watching Oil Prices Also staying and Holding Around those levels. Two key drivers, the middle east conflict that you have, using sanctions on venezuela. Thats really driving that. Rishaad we are looking at the oil in more detail because up next, we go over and join bloomberg dave middle east and africa. Thats next. Thats hong kong. This is bloomberg. Get help reaching your goals with j. P. Morgan wealth plan, a digital money coach in the chase mobile® app. Use it to set and track your goals, big and small. And see how changes you make today. Could help put them within reach. 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