The whole epstein matter what happened . Hes been going on for a long time, been going on for a long time, the whole epstein episode, and i know its under investigation but attorney general barr thats who will be handling it the retweet which is what it was, its a retweet, was from somebody thats a very respected conservative pundit, so i think that was fine, yeah. [ inaudible question ]. No, basically what were saying is we want an investigation. I want a full investigation, and thats what i absolutely am demanding. Thats what our attorney general, our great attorney general is doing hes doing a full investigation. [ inaudible question ]. The hong kong thing is very tough situation, very tough. Well see what happens, but im sure it will work out. I hope it works out for everybody, including china, by the way. I hope it works out for everybody. [ inaudible question ]. No. Its a very tricky situation i think it will work out, and i hope it works out for liberty. I hope it works out for everybody, including china i hope it works out peacefully i hope nobody gets hurt. I hope nobody gets killed. Mr. President , are you more optimistic that you can get a deal with china on trade ive always been optimistic my only question is whether or not they were willing to wait and take the chance on winning the election and deal with somebody who is weak and ineffective and doesnt know what hes doing or shes doing like they have had in the past this should have been done 25 years ago. Should have been tonyears ago or five years ago. This should have been done a long time ago. This should have been done by biden and obama. China has taken out 500 billion a year and much more than that if you include the property. What im doing now should have been done many years ago [ inaudible question ] maybe there ought to be a different poem on the statue of liberty that says immigrants should stand up for themselves and take care of themselves. Do you think that should be changed . I dont think its fair to have are the american tax pasch its about america first. I dont think its fair for the american taxpayer paying for people who come into the United States so what weve done is institute what took place many, many years ago at our founding virtually. We are just reinstituting it, and i think its long overdue. Im tired of seeing our taxpayer paying for people to come into the country and immediately go on to welfare and various other things, so i think were doing it right [inaudible question ] i think that what chris cuomo did was horrible his language was horrible he looked like a total outofcontrol animal. He lost it, and frankly i dont think anybody should defend him because he spews lies every night, so i dont know why anybody would defend him but chris cuomo was out of control. I watched it i thought it was terrible. So i dont know who is defending him. Maybe they didnt see it maybe they havent gotten a full picture, but i think anybody that would have seen chris cuomo would have said thats a disgrace youve never seen me do that [inaudible question ] well, i think chris kwemo was so out of control that i would not have wanted to see a weapon in his hand. I guess his fist is not a weapon he talked about it but didnt do anything i think chris cuomo was very much out of control actually [inaudible question ] well, anthony was a guy who worked for me, who real didnt have a clue. He worked for 11 days. He made terrible statements and gestures and everything to people that worked in the office i think youve heard emschlapp talk about it in great detail. Anthony didnt support me in the beginning. He was with somebody else and then he went to somebody else, and he only came to me after it was a foregone conclusion that i would win. I havent been a fan of him. I think anthony is somebody thats very much out of control. He doesnt have what it takes, he real doesnt. He wanted to come back into the administration for the last five months, beg me to come back in, and i said anthony, i cant take you in, im sorry. Hes a nervous, neurotic wreck he called so much, and i said anthony, im sorry, i cant do that i cant take you in, and i said youve got to the stop all these phone calls, too many calls, anthony, and i wouldnt take his call, and lo and behold now he feels differently, but anthony is upset because he wanted certain things the main thing he wanted was to come back into the administration, and as you remember better than i do, he was a disaster for the 11 days [ inaudible question well, we have tremendous plastics coming over from asia and china. Its not our plastic its plastic thats floating over in the ocean and the various oceans from other places now, plastics are fine you have to know what you do with them, but other countries are not taking care of their plastic use, and they havent for a long time. The plastic that were getting is floating across the ocean from other places, including china. [inaudible question ] i am convinced that mitch wants to do something. Ive spoken to Mitch Mcconnell hes a good man. He wants to do something he wants to do it i think very strongly he wants to do background checks and i do, too, and i think a lot of republicans do. I dont know frankly that the democrats will get us there, but ilspoke with chris murphy, a senator, had a very good conversation well see what happens mitch, and i can tell you from my standpoint, i would like to see meaningful backgrown checks. I think something will happen. Theres nobody more pro Second Amendment than donald trump, but i dont want guns in the hands of a lunatic or main yeah, and i think if we do proper background checks we can protect that. Do you really think that the clintons are involved in Jeffrey Epsteins death . I have no idea. He was on the plane 27 times and he said he was on the plane four times. And bill clinton, a very good friend of epstein, he was on the plane about 27 or 28 times, so why did he say four times . And then the question you have to ask is did bill clinton go to the island because epstein had an island that was not a good place as i understand it i was never there. You have to ask did bill clinton go to the island thats the question. If you find that out, youre going to know a lot. Thank you very much, everybody all right welcome to the Halftime Report. Our breaking news continues now. That the president in bed minister, new jersey there speaking on a wide array of topics, including those delayed tariffs on china which caused the stock market to do what it is doing on the righthand side of your screen, off the best levels of the day, but nonetheless its a strong day for stocks lets go through some of the headlines there. The president speaking about that call with china saying it was very productive. Also saying that he agreed to delay those tariffs because he didnt want to hurt the Holiday Shopping season, that he did it to help different groups of people, he said to avoid the Consumer Impact which is interesting. That sort of flies in the face of the narrative that the white house has been projecting in recent weeks and months that the consumer here in the United States wasnt being impacted at all from the tariffs, that the consumer here, the u. S. Taxpayer as the u. S. Administration says clearly wasnt paying at all as weve pointed out on numerous occasions thats just not the case in certain instances and the president saying today one of the chief reasons why they delayed the tariffs until midseptember was because of the Holiday Shopping season. Lets also hit the comments that the president had on hong kong because that remains very much part of the story today as those protests are certainly heating up at the airport in hong kong the president saying that he hopes nobody gets hurt, that nobody gets killed that situation is escalating one of the busiest airports in the world. Numerous flights cancelled yesterday. Another developing situation there today. The escalation of tensions between the riot police and the protesters there, so were keeping our eye on both of those stories. Let mow just let you know as well that the president towards the end there speaking about the possibility of increased gun control pressures saying that the Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell, quote, wants to do something, those are the headlines that really relate to all that cover, certainly the tariffs and whats going on in hong kong which have not had a dramatic effect on the trading of stocks today but the tariffs certainly have and this news that the administration after a call with china described as very productive will delay some, although when you get down into the details it it may be isnt the story that we thought all the way through, especially if you look at a stock and an intraday stock, for instance, like apple, surging on the news by at least 10 and backed off a bit as its now becoming clear perhaps what exactly were talking about in the kinds of products that will be subject to those tariffs. Apple coming off the best level when things like apple watch, home pod, air pods may still be subject to the tariffs on deese 1st. Well cover all of the movement in the market because it affects so much of the market. Jon najarian, michael farr, josh brown, stef hi link and joe terranova. All right. So jon, we sort of set the scene for everybody. It was this headline about the delay in tariffs that sent stocks off to the races, and as we pointed out almost every day if not every week. Right. Youre always one tweet or one headline away from a market reaction. A big up or a big down. And its hard to gettow arms around what to do in that environment. True, very true, scott, and whats going on right now is the administration is giving china a little wiggle room here because examines hand is pretty close to being forced in hong kong they dont want to do that they would lose their status if they harshly went in there and put down the protests so hopefully they can get this thing under control. By xi jinping is under extreme pressure because hes got the trade negotiations on the one hand, scott, and then hong kong and then obviously in the back of his mind taiwan because if you do hong kong, something is going on with taiwan almost immediately. Thats a lot of pressure i think this kind of eases a little of the pressure because hes taking the pressure off on the trade front side, and hopefully xi jinping can deal with miss lam and whats going on in hong kong. Josh, no tariffs or at least delayed tariffs for some products from september the 1st until middecember not to make a broad political comment, but the reality of youre always one tweet away or one headline away. Youre trying to manage money for people. Yeah. Put me into that environment. Well, so, the only way to win this game is not to play as ive said repeatedly because of exactly what you described and what were seeing on our screens in front of us the president of the United States is gas lighting twitter, and that is triggering trades by algorithms that are written specifically for these types of headlines, delay tear of, buy s p. New tariffs, sell s p. If you think that youre going to play that game against software you are more delusional than the people who are saying americans are benefiting from tariffs and were taking in billions and billions of dollars. None of these things are happening and actually i wouldnt be surprised if we resolve to the downside. I know people got excited, oh, they are going to save christmas and take the tariffs off some of the electronics. The damage is done its absolute chaos. Talk to anyone trying to do crossborder trade dont know whether they are coming and going youll never see the peak in cap x that you saw in 2018 its not coming back and in the absence you have two things supporting the market, buybacks and reasonable valuations with few alternatives absent those weeks probably close to 4,000 on the dow. Count your lucky stars that the fed is standing back and youll continue to have the buybacks that will keep the market okay but the idea that well have gas lit algorithm rallies as far as the eye can see. Its a total embarrassment. I was wondering if this was just obviously some semblance of a relief rally or if its one where we get back to reality where recession risks are rising there are a number of different statistics that i could cite and the numbers that wall street are passing around today well go through a little bit of it is this a oneday phenomenon, a couple of days, and were back to rallies weve tweeted these headlines before. When you think the blue, and well tariff everything that comes out of mexico and stocks plunge and then a week later and then the hard part is for fred and ethel who are 70 years old they are retired and they are looking at the income and trying to see if their money is going to last until they are 90 or 1 the 5 years old. They plotted out their healthcare expenses and they see this kind of volatility and they think should i be doing this, you know, and the answer of fred and ethel is, no, by the way, day to day just tune it out. Youve got to ignore this. Youve need to Pay Attention to the fundamentals and know that the economy is growing very, very slowly, scott. So good points made by michael farr, steph. Bank of america says the s p is on borrowed time in the 2s and sos, bond yields invert. Theres the lowest the spread is now the lowest since 07. You have fund manager survey, recession fears spike to 2011 high you have a third of respondents in that survey expecting a recession 12 months. You make sense of it youre running a multibillion dollar portfolio at tia. Its like i rolled my eyes when i saw the news this morning because its really, really very difficult. You cant react what michael just said. You cant react to the daytoday headlines, you cant as a longterm fundamental Portfolio Manager so what do you do and ive been talking about this barbell approach for a while, and i know youre probably sick and tired of me talking about it, but you cant really go after it today i would love to then really pile into cyclicals across the poured if in fact i thought we were going to make progress on trade. Now, look, this is good news today that maybe we get some clarity, some pushouts, but were not out of the woods so you, therefore, have to keep a balanced portfolio you have to have some cyclicals which i actually do and im overweight dickials. Youll never be out of the woods until youve got president xi and President Trump sitting at a table with the flags behind them and they have the signing ceremony and have the pens out. Thats my point you cant own if youre going to be a Portfolio Manager and are going to vest, you cant go all in in the cheap stocks because they have gotten beaten up on trade because we just dont know until we get the final agreement, if we ever get a final agreement. Youre buying stocks. You have to have some defensives and some offensives. Youre playing some offense today. Maybe. Maybe its playing offense by way of defense. So amgen i bought thats a new position for me because they won the enbrel case, 20 of their total revenues and their pipeline is Strong Enough and they are best of class and the stock can grind higher has nothing to do with trade thankfully because i dont want all my stocks to be exposed to trade. A good Quality Company lagged the sector because of the embrel case. A little more to go. Flip side, sold out of emerson because thats an oil proxy, and i dont think oil i think its in a trading range. Farr, not michael, david farr has done a great job running that company, and i do think that once he he might retire, they may split up the company. Theres a lot of optionality and the stock will languish. I did buy ge nibbled a little bit. Added to. My cost basis is around 9 so its around here i thought the quarter was actually better than the way the stock react the. They are in the restructuring story, early innings power was actually better. Thats what everyone has been freaked out about. Orders up 4 and cash flow better than expected aviation and healthcare had issues, not a perfect quarter but at 9 the risk reward is quite interesting. I wonder, joe, if you feel like were running towards the end of the road of the bond proxy trades. No. Not at all . Not at all. You know, the yield, the dividend plays. Thats the problem. The hunt for yield has been the headline. Thats the problem that on a day like today youre challenged by true asset and Wealth Managers are going out and talking about not just equities. They are talking about on a daylight today take a look at reits if youre underinvested. Take a look at what Precious Metals have done today they have reversed significantly. Does that mean its over for Precious Metals . No you want to continue to hold those. On a day like today, the temptation is there to do that just as it has been for the last three or four years where people said get out of bonds. Bonds are not the place that you want to be bonds are what you need in your portfolio. Back to the equities market, look, i didnt like the tweet on august 1st i didnt like the timing of the tweet today. It gives the appearance of manipulating the equities market, but in those 12 days youve found opportunities to buy equities whether it was a mastercard or intuit i like your buy of amgen you and i talked about adco and lamb research, names that im adding to, and ill give into the headline today best buy to me has fundamentally been a Solid Company thats been hamstrung by the potential of these tariffs. Now if youre pushing them back until christmas, okay. Ill take the bait on that one. Do you buy semis because of this do you buy tech hardware or any of the other stocks . Consumer electronics, best buy. I think you can take a look at the number of the retailers like Urban Outfitters a whole bunch get hurt when they talk about the tariffs moving up as much as the president had threatened to move them up, and most of those are up between 7 , best buy, urban up 5 . A host of others. I dont think you need to go there. You can go to quality and offpricers, t j. Max, ross stores. Dollar general. They get hit more on tariffs than the offpricers and they are so cheap walmart. Plenty of retailers out there, discretionary names that havent participated, and if we do get resolution they will benefit. And the letter x is hitting. U. S. Steel, fmoran, those stocks hitting again and moving up and pretty strong institutional money going into those names right now. Just one other point, scott, i dont think even if youve got President Trump and president xi down at a signing ceremony youre out of the woods here hes going to have another tweet. This is a president who likes the headlines. Have will be more tweets what we have to do is figure out how to live with the volatility and not overreact. We have to start pricing in that series of tweets. How do you live with it steeve is right when she says its so difficult to try and play it you cant play it you have to go to the fundamentals wait ten days like joe is talking. I dont know how to do that. Too simple to say we have a fourmonth reprieve in the market, that the rally is back on now no, no, not unless you take his iphone away you wont have a reprieve for ten minutes, much less four money. You have to listen to stephanie and say well look at fundamentals listen to sdwroe and say im looking at Business Models you listen to those companies, that you know, josh and jon have mentioned about they are not going to face the tariffs that are as high but they still have good Business Models good strong fundamentals earnings growth, good cash flow that will survive all of this noise. This is a time when you have to shut out the noise and look longer term. If i throw a stock in the wind if i like amd today, for example youre telling me dont even Pay Attention to tweet deck or anything else, and i just buy amd for the long term because all this noise is going to clear . You have to be willing to accept the fact that the fundamentals in amd may not change from monday to tuesday but the share price could be 15 higher or lower. Yes. You cant handle, that you shouldnt be in individual stocks and, b, you you missed the fundamental concept that a lot of what happens on your screen day to day is driven by emotion, not just your emotion but emotions of other people. Part of being a Portfolio Manager is right sizing your bets who has more beta and what doesnt . Amd has so much juice you cant be 200 or 300 basis points over the benchmark in that name because you have the headline risk, but could you size it 50 basis points above the benchmark . Certainly. Youll still get the benefit on the days that it actually goes higher. Joe made an important point about maintaining your Asset Allocation im already seeing horror shows out there. We looked at a portfolio from someone, not a client of ours, but a client of like a 3 billion team at a warehouse firm, and they had no fixed income, and and why i dont know our advisor said that jamie dimon said weights are going to 70 . This portfolio is a living nightmare. This is the kind of activity that you see out there when people think they know better than the markets, and people think they are outsmarting 1 hundred million professional investors. Wipe out your Bond Exposure because you think rates are going up your Bond Exposure and to joes point your bond proxies, thats whats kept you in the green over the last year, so if you think youre smarter than the whole world, by all means, you want to make these binary allornothing bets with asset classes. Go right ahead wish you the best of luck but thats not what will work for a majority of people so maintaining these bond proxy names, regardless of what your views are, i think thats going to be the key that gets you through these periods of volatility, and you may not look like the smartest man on earth every day or the smartest woman on earth, but thats not the name of the game the name of the game is stay in the game. Judge, yesterday, apple was stronger than the market, and it was hard to say why. Im not saying because this was foretold by somebody or an al gore or anything else. Apple was stronger, down like 90 cents and it was in the black for much of the day yesterday. Then they came out july smartphone shipments in china, not down as much as they thought. I think that was the reason that apple held in so strong yesterday, and obviously today its optimism about what some of negotiation might yield, even though as you said earbuds and many of the other things, air buds are not going to be part of what comes what is delayed september 1st. They are also buying back a ton of stock of their own. You bet. They got tons of support on that front. Thats what it looks like has been happening right at that 200 level on apple. But they all have been buying back a ton of stock this Corporate Tax cut has really resulted in a huge amount of stock buybacks you want to see whats supporting the market more than anything else. Stock buybacks. Stock buybacks are actually outpacing the alltime high, the receptions for mutual funds, and if you want to know like what happens when all these people are selling out their equity mutual funds which has been the trend since january relentlessly, record numbers, its buybacks that are picking up the slack, and you could say i dont like that or its not supposed to be that way. Well, that candidly is whats keeping the dow and the s p within 4 , 5 of the alltime high. Does todays headlines stop the massive decline that weve been seeing in bond yields i mean, banks are getting a bid today. Yes. No shock. Tell me what hes going to tweet tomorrow. Also the nfib today, it came out better than expected the Small Business gauge came out and who would have seen that i didnt see that coming at all, but its better than expected. 104. 7 or Something Like that, scott, versus 104 something was expected i think things like that are also why youre going to see those yields, you know, start moving to the other direction for a bit. Interesting that cowan had a note today saying washington remains the biggest threat to the banks through the 2020 election regardless of who wins for a variety of reasons. We said that yesterday. We said you could be faced with a democratic president ial candidate rather who is going to present a significant challenge to the financial institutions, but i think the important thing about the market, the equity market itself, is what michael and josh are talking about is the buyback impact, and when youre lowering rates and youre sitting in the sweet seat and you have an opportunity now to do a dead offering at these historically low levels. Yes. If investors are out there and they are actually going to go in and they are going to take your debt, great, ill do it all day long so you have buybacks running 13 higher this year than last year, approaching 1 trillion, and in that environment with lower rates thats going to even expand more cap x which josh is citing, yes, there was a cap x peak but cap x is 8 higher year on year ill take that. All right well step away and take a quick break. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. The street is loving mcdonalds the stock up 40 this year and a new call saying its time to buy, but do our experts agree . Its our call of the day plus, jon najarian tracking some unusual options activity stay tuned for his latest trades and we want to hear from you send us your questions at cnbc. Com halftime or tweet us halftimereport use the askhalftime the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes how do you gauge the greatness of an suv . Is it to carry cargo. Or to carry on a legacy . Its show of strength. Or its sign of intelligence . In crossing harsh terrain. Or breaking new ground . This is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedesbenz summer event, going on now. Lease the gla 250 suv for just 329 a month with credit toward your first months payment at the mercedesbenz summer event. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Welcome back, everyone im sue herera with an update on a very fluid situation in hong kong at this point protesters continue to occupy hong kongs international airport, one of the busiest in the world. We did have some injuries earlier. Police stepped in and used pepper spray and tear gas to try to subdue the protesters at this point we are getting some statements both from the chinese u. N. Mission and also a first statement from the chinese Central Government heres what chinas u. N. Mission says they say the protesters have smashed public facilities, paralyzed the airport and blocked public transport and used lethal weapons. This is the key phrase, showing a tendency of resorting to terrorism. Then the chinese Central Government moments ago came out and said that they firmly support hong kong chief executive carrie lam and her government in discharging their duties in compliance with the law and supports the police force and the judiciary. Earlier this week, china also issued a statement saying that the protesters and the clashes are sprouts of terrorism the reason those words are important is because if the protesters are indeed declared terrorists, it gives carrie lam, who is the ceo, the chief executive of hong kong, appointed by mainland china, it gives her additional powers to subdue the protesters. Thats why the language in this particular case counts enormously we have had some injuries. Weve seen blansz on the scene this is the second straight day where the transportation in and out of that airport has been disrupted, so were following what is a very fluid situation at this point, scott ill turn it back to you. Okay. We appreciate, that sue. Thank you for that. Mmhmm. Thats sue herera there, which is why, michael farr, you just said to me as sue was delivering that report as were watching those live pictures, the bond bid remains as long as it remains unsettled there, if not in other places as well. As long as the world remains unsettled, as long as were hearing about that, and as long as were hearing about, still, you know, the new nafta agreement isnt getting done theres another headline out there, talks with iran have gone quiet for a moment its the tough part its that unpredictable shortterm thing thats been swing our markets in every direction, and when investors make mistakes, scott, its because they have become emotional. We were just talking about it on the desk during a break, that you know, when investors get scared and they think that they have got to take profits, they got to do something now. Longterm investors never have to do anything now they just dont, and it makes it so much harder, but, yeah, our bond market could get a bid back very quickly and it could be later this afternoon. Lets talk about shares of mcdonalds this morning. They are up 20 this year, another new high today as mkm partners says, the stock should keep rising. 250 bucks. The price target is the heist on the street and ill focus on the lefthand side of the desk here, joe, you and steph both own the stock. You first. I think were both relatively somewhat nervous about the valuation. Yes. And wondering when the shoe is going to drop. Yes they have done a tremendous job over the last four years the stock price is a double, and they have done it with a massive refranchising effort they are now above 90 in refranchising, and then they have incorporated the Digital Strategy when you have a strong digitatstrategy and youre combining it with fast food service, you can going to gain momentum, and thats what mcdonalds has done. They have made the experience for the consumer faster, quicker, cleaner and a better menu. How about this, steph mcdonalds has done incredibly great, right incredibly well. The stock, as joe said, has been off to the races year to date, mcdonalds is up 23 , wendys 27 yum 26 . Qsr 42 . Starbucks 48 . Yeah. What does that tell you and i dont mean to bring that up as a negative on mcdonalds its just that theres so much focus on mcdonalds and so much focus them hitting a new high but oh, by the way these other stocks have done better. These other stocks have more beta and better growth and much higher multiples there it is and thats the savior, if you will, for why you would like mcdonalds over them well, so heres the thing i dont own a lot of consumer staple stocks because i find them very expensive relative to the growth that youre getting so Something Like a p g is 26 times and its growing, organic growth of 5 , 6 , maybe even 7 is sustainable, i dont think so, but anyhow thats what they just produced. Thats a good number thats a low number to pavement organic growth at 7 at 26 times. These guys will do mcdonalds will do doubledigit earnings and midsingle digit comps it acts like a staple stock, so where im underweight staples i can plug it with this, and oh, by the way, have you a ceo who has done a remarkable job in totally transforming the company on digital side, on the menu side and to joes point to the Consumer Experience side what bothers me is, a, valuation, and also 75 of the sell side has bice on the stock. Can you get another 15 out of this thing. No. I think the trade of owning some defensives, if that continues, this should continue to do fine, but the expectations some of this some of this is Like Technology and the companies have that invested over the last few years. They are seeing the benefit of that in terms of more habitforming behavior on the part of the consumer. Yeah. The digital experience. Thats number one to your point, its it looks like a rerating for the whole sector sheikh Omar Abdelrahman is up 1 has year to date from jah 1 the fundamentals of the business did not go up 100 they are doing well, but thats not the reality. The reality is wall street likes these companies again and a lot just has to do with an overall strong environment. The nuggets. And the consumer is doing well. He was telling me about the nuggets. The best restaurant stocks do well. Thats a truism now you combine that with oil and gas not being a price impediment to the consumer theres a lot of good things. With everything were talking about, with what michael just mentioned about bonds and what you might see in hong kong or the lack of something that could percolate out of iran or any of these other things that could become a headline like that, not just a sweet, thats all the reason you need to know as to why joe and steph are winning this this trade because nobody wants to sell or get out of mcdonalds here, judge one of the safest stocks look at the recent earnings. They were just in line you show me another stock, guys, where its just in line with revenue, in line with earnings per share. That stock is going to get slammed. Mcdonalds didnt, and, in fact, its like 6 higher than when they reported that nobody wants to get out of this stock. Okay. Were going to stay on the consumer theme in just a moment because we have some unusual activity on a consumer stock up more than 30 , and jon has that coming up in unusual activity first the s p a second check big bay for a stock. S p up 47, and the financials. Halftime is back right after this tell him were flexible. Dont worry. My dutch is ok. Just ok . in dutch tell him we need this merger. in dutch its happening. just ok is not ok. Especially when it comes to your network. At t is americas best Wireless Network and now, get the option of spotify premium on us, with your unlimited plan. More for your thing. Thats our thing. Welcome back shares of modelez are up scott . Taking a look at the nice progression from the lower left to the upper right is certainly god for anybody like steph who owns it. People are betting on upside out to september today, and part of it is perhaps that Morgan Stanley upgrade last week when they came in and said, hey, take it to overweight, 62 price target they upped the dividend in the most recent report as well look at this nearly 12,000 of these calls, september calls. Less than 3 out of the money, scott. I think people are betting that this one makes that move throughout the summer and into september. Im long these calls ill probably be in them in the neighborhood of a month, month and a half second one real quick. Take a look at silver, slv its up 10 in the last month, and just what we said about mcdonalds also applies here who wants to get out of their Precious Metals right here because Something Else could be happening, whether its hong kong or anything else. We see people buying 1850 calls in slv right now like i say, weve had it hit multiple times this one is already up over 12,000 contracts 1. 2 million share equivalent love that. Lastly, very quick on j. D. , we talked about it last week. Just three days ago, talked about j. D. Now we see the stock making an 11 move today, stock and luckily the options are moving better than 70 . Thats why you trade options, and thats you get into a stock like j. D look at that 11. 2 on blowout earnings today. We probably have a question for you. Were got them on roku, marriott and more straight ahead. You still have time to submit yours. Go to cnbc. Com halftime or tweet us because were back in a little more than two minutes your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. You mighyour joints. Ngch. For your heart. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. phone ringing a phones offers big button,ecialized phones. And volumeenhanced phones. , get details on this state program. Call or visit and accessoriesphones for your mobile phone. Like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. phone ringing get details on this state program call or visit welcome back to the Halftime Report. Lets answer some of your questions. Joe, one for you about marriott from mark in atlanta, georgia. Is it time to get back in to mar in. Yes, it, and thats something ive done in the last ten days listen, the guidance was a little bit weak. The Revenue Growth and the unigrowth look a little bit week, but i think Arnie Sorensen has done a phenomenal job diversifying the brand, introducing new hotels, ac, a loft if youve ever stayed at them these are millenial hotels, shiny and brand new and places that people want to go to. Marriott for the long term is a great play. The linkster, from paul in downington, pennsylvania thanks for the recommendation on bx is now the time to buy carlisle . So blackstone good what about carlisle . Well, i think blackstone still has room to go because it hasnt been included in the index funds and it should be at the end of this month, so i still think theres upside to blackstone carlisle dont go to c corp until january of 2020 so have you time you can slowly build the position but i do prefer the position. For josh brown from nelson in brookhaven, georgia. Josh, cgc, canopy growth. Thanks, freddo. Seems to have mel ode out are you still optimistic about their potential . Thats a great question i am, and the stock has mellowed out. The whole sector has been under distribution if you look at all the publicly trade, quote, unquote, cannabis plays, one looks worse than the next and they are all terrible heres what i would tell you i have a very, very small amount of stock no intention of adding right now. This is the type of story that i would rather add to on the way up so im watching the 200Day Moving Average which is about 40 i want to see it regain that level and have that at least flatten out before i get excited about it im in here very small im not adding i dont feel like theres any urgency. Okay. Okay. Youre responsible for everything you say on this show, okay not me, just you. Okay. Michael farr, for you from evans in tampa, florida long j j yeah, and i like the stock. In this world of seasickness i think this is a good dramamine stock. Has a aaa balance sheet. 14. 4 times earnings, discount to the s p, 2. 9 dividend, and ive toned forever. Tyler mathisen makes fun of me about it, but when you have a u. S. Treasury tenyear yielding 1. 65 and you get that twice for johnson johnson, got beaten up over the talc crisis, but this is a stock i want to own. Doc, roku, buy, sell, hold . Collar put spreads . Im ed holding that he havely, and that spread that judge just spoke of, a collar where you own a put, sell a call to pay for it, fancy, judge. Look at that. A fancy play, jon got a great book that describes exactly that. Options action a few times. You know, its a great stock. Just been on fire. Needham just moved the target up to 150 trees dont grow to the sky, judge. I think you lock some in. Thanks for the questions. Im prices are trading above a 200Day Moving Average more on erengy straight ahead on the half. Were back right after this. Welcome back to the Halftime Report, im seema mody this is futures now. Crude oil soaring today as the u. S. Delays some of the proposed tariffs on chinese goods easing trade tensions and giving investors hopes of a trade deal. Traders today are brian stetland crude is up over the last week, but down about 5 in the last month. How much should investors believe in this rebound . Well, it feels like things are starting to shift a little bit. When you look at the saudis theyre going to be willing to cut back more on oil here. The announcement that aramco might go forward in selling part of their shares here im not the biggest bull but things seem to reverse strong today in the oil markets and the stock market maybe Global Growth doesnt hit zero like everybodys predicting here and we get some growth and that way the upside to oil maybe 60 is in the cards. And anthony, what does the technical picture tell you about oil . Well, 56, 57 is the 200 Day Moving Average you mentioned were well above that right now. I have resistance at 58, and ill take the opposite of when brian said you know, not a lot of demand has materialized because of what happened with china today. In fact, demand is actually falling and u. S. Production is rising im looking to actually fade this rally. Okay, brian, anthony, thank you. For more futures now check out our live show at 1 00 p. M. Eastern. Well dive deeper into oil that and much more futur futuresnow. Cnbc. Com. See thats funny, i thought you traded options. Im not really a wall street guy. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade online now, read stephanie landsmans article on why one top money manager sees a growing risk that could slam stocks through next year. Go to tradingnation. Cnbc. Com now. Sonoma county declared a homeless emergency in 2018. You have to know the individuals youre serving to understand their needs. Working with ibm watson we can bring together data spread across dozens of departments. That gives us a fuller view of the people we serve. Dear tech, dear tech, we need to look after everyone in our community. And we want to help our fellow human beings. Its my special friend, antonio. His luxurious fur calms my nerves when im worried about moving into our new apartment. Why dont we just ask geico for help with renters insurance . I didnt know geico helps with renters insurance. Yeah, and we could save a bunch too. Antonio fetch computer antonio . Ill get it. Get to know geico and see how much you could save on renters insurance. Welcome back, big day in the stock market well do final trades right now. Michael farr, the guest from out of time. United technologies i think has gotten a bad rap here. 14 times earnings, 2. 3 dividend, great balance sheet. They did a lot of investing in these jet fan engines. Theyre going to benefit from them i think its a good Solid Company, and i think its going to do well. Kkr. Sjm. Good stuff. Thanks for watching. Dow right now up 407 points. The exchange begins right now. Thank you, scott hi, everybody. Here is whats ahead a tariff bomb shell, the u. S. Delaying some china tariffs until effectively after christmas. That, plus word of a phone call between our two trade reps has that market soaring today. Is the worst over, and what does it mean for the fed now . We will ask. Plus, worsening protests in hong kong. The local leader warning protesters theyve gone down, quote a path of no return as skirmishing break out in the airport. Well have the latest, and talk about how this factors into the china trade talks. And bringing skilled workers back to americas heartland. A look at ho