Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713

Ahead of the trade talks in washington we just heard from President Trump on those trade talks lets get straight to kayla in dc with the latest. The markets have been whipsawing all day in response to chinese officials telegraphing exactly how they feel about the trade talks earlier today we had chinese officials telling bloomberg theyre open to a partial deal even though theyre frustrated by the black listing of 28 security and technology companies. Then we had a report about purchases of soybeans. Then we had a reuters report later in the day that said that chinese officials because of the black lifting by the commerce department, they are lowering their expectations for the outcome of these trade talks perhaps a shot across the bow to the u. S. Government as it tries to figure out exactly what to do behind closed doors and what potential truce, deal or no deal to accept or leave on the cutting room floor as it were. That report significantly moved the market perhaps the intention of those chinese officials who were speaking to those reporters. And just after that news broke, we asked the president about his view os trade talks and his response to china. Its really only two people that matter in this one, and thats president xi and myself we get along very well i cant imagine he likes me the way i did when i first became president. So certainly there are two people that matter, as you heard the president say, himself and president xi but they are not going to be meeting this round it is going to be vice premier, the treasury secretary of the United States and the u. S. Trade representative perhaps if it goes well enough, President Trump and president xi could meet next month. And if things go well in the next couple of days, you could see the tariffs on 250 billion not raised to 30 from the 25 but definitely, melissa, people are saying those sanctions that the Customers Department announced are a real issue its just unclear how the u. S. Is going to respond to all of these Smoke Signals that china is putting out. Does it sound like the president was more optimistic about the chances of the deal in the latest the Public Comments that he made just within the past 15 minutes or so he recycled some familiar semantics, so its not lit clear whether hes thinking any differently about it now than he was, say, monday he said hes been tough on china. He did hit back at chinas view that its stated for a long time, any deal needs to be a winwin it needs to show that china and the u. S. Are on equal footing. The president said no, weve been down. Were not going to do a deal that looks like that. Thank you so we saw the whipsaw action yesterday. We finished with session lows and now session highs. What do you make of this its very hard to handicap on a daytoday basis, but then President Trump actually said any deal has to be better than 5050 in the u. S. s favor, and im paraphrasing, because weve been taken advantage of for a long time. Which may be true, by the way. And the chinese are walking it back again from where i said, i dont see anything getting done. Do they come away tomorrow and say weve laid the foundation for president xi and President Trump to speak in a month . Yes, thats a bullish outcome. I just dont see it happening. I think both sides are too dug in at this point. Not even a small deal i dont think so but it doesnt mean im right. Maybe just pushing out on tariffs, nothing on tech or ip but its bipartisan. They have been taking advantage of us. Its a doipt issue i think youre going to see a small deal and thats enough to keep the market going. The next couple of tranches of tariffs, wouldnt that be a positive thing for the market . The smallest bit of progress is positive for equities in the relatively short term. So if we get some kind of movement, if we get Something Like guy had said where all of a sudden, okay, President Trump and xi are going to meet next month, i think that would be a positive move for the short term but you cannot handicap this theres been a lot of damage done if you look at the strategic part of this, we know that trump likely needs a deal before the election comes along however, the chinese dont and theyve pushed it out this long and guy tas haukd about this the whole time, their incentive is to push it out until the election so im not sure even if we have the progress, what is the long term this is bipartisan. Elizabeth warren is just as hard on china as trump is so this is not i think theyre beginning to realize china, that theres not an easier deal coming. Im not sure. When you think about it, if weve done all of what weve done so far just to push out an increase of tariffs that exist that didnt exist over a year ago, which have actually caused us to go into a manufacturing recession, if you look at the ism data that we got in september, it was the lowest print since june of 2009, okay showing contraction. If we just push out further tariffs, do you expect the markets may like it. Do you expect the Global Economy to but you understand were not doing this over tariffs. This was always about thats the point, steve but you have no leverage over china. You have zero leverage over china. The longer this goes on, how much leverage do you think either side has if we go into a global recession eventually companies are going to have workarounds in their supply chains. Not if demand falls off. Recessions are cyclical theyre going to happen. We havent had one in a long time. Im not going to argue with you. We know that recessions are cyclical you dont have to be an economist to say it. I think that theres a fair point to be made that President Trump would like to have a win in the column when it comes to china ahead of the elections it may not have anything to do with is it a win if he doesnt encompass the tariffs . Its not a win. What can be perceived, what he will portray as a win im not talking about a real win. Thats a sugar high if theres something he can chalk up into the real world lets talk about what the market is going to do so you get this incremental progress and the market may rally on this, but then the reality of what dan is talking about is that were already in this global slowdown, possibly recession. Demand is not picking up so ultimately i think the market starts to get rational and say there was a win in that column but it hasnt changed the economics any, and therefore we continue to try to get mired in this. Steve made a good point it is bipartisan i would agree a hundred percent. But my pushback, if you give me a few seconds is a lot of this has now come down to saving face especially for the chinese i think its more important. Although its clearly important for President Trump. With a potential, and im saying potential president warren, i think maybe the trading, the negotiating trial might be such that a deal with be struck and the chinese could save face. I know thats somewhat nuanced but i think its important President Trump has a very distinct style and hes not particularly soft when it comes to some of the rhetoric that he goes back and forth. Calling them enemies and such doesnt really help the cause. Lrn is nelizabeth warren is exactly warm and fuzzy they argues the same way that President Trump does but ill grant you that, that President Trump does it in a very course, in your face, twitter, social media. Thats much more aggressive than elizabeth warren. Lets talk more about the Market Expectations heading into tomorrows trade talks joining me is trading officer. Are you expecting anything, be it skinny or small or paired down this week, neck week . It seems like both sides are talking about the possibility of a narrow deal, maybe more agricultural purchases and i think this is a great discussion that you all are having on the desk in terms of if we simply postpone tariffs that have been threatened but not implemented, how big a deal is that again, shortterm its good news were moving a threat or at least postponing a threat. Does it change uncertainty, does it unleash cap x i would argue probably not and even if we have a small trade deal, now we have election uncertainty. If im a ceo and i dont have to make an investment right away and i can wait and see what happens, im probably going to wait and see what happens. It probably puts a cap on things but youve got amazing aggressive Global Central Bank easing providing an offset so im kind of thinking about this as a muddle through economy and market that trade deal, whatever happens this week, who the heck knows but i agree trump probably wants a deal before 2020, something to put a win in that column and thats good news at the margin but it doesnt move uncertainty and its not going to be enough to change animal spirits before the election. Do we sustain these levels even if its muddle through . I think thats a really good point. When you think about a lot of the investors out there, people like me. We have balanced portfolios, stocks, bonds, lots of stuff were not going to be out of the equity market altogether, but really since the trade war started most of the money going into equities isnt going cyclicles. People who need equity exposed ur are doing it in the safest way they can which in a way is resulting in crazy valuations in these sectors. So if we have good news just like we saw at the beginning of september, the rubber band snaps and cyclicles take off, but i dont have a high probability on that kind of news being sustainable for now. Rebecca, the other phenomena has been that because the u. S. Is not in recession yet, a lot of capital is flowing into the u. S. But weve seen Consumer Confidence roll over like it did this time last year. Obviously the ism prints were not great. How much does it concern you that the u. S. Is about to crack . We all know on this desk that the u. S. Is driven by the consumer and yes, Consumer Confidence has come off its highs but with an Unemployment Rate at 3. 5 and refi rs on fire again as falling Interest Rates have helped mortgages so the consumer is in a good place. If we see the manufacturing contraction of companies laying off workers and if those laid off workers arent going out to eat or going to a movie or buying a new car, then we need to worry but as long as we see fed easing and the transmission channel continues to work, its hard to see a recession. Im keeping a close eye on jobless claims and Consumer Confidence those would be the big ones to me that tell us if that spillover is happening. We talk about u. S. china often because we have. Are there other factors at work regardless of whether or not a deal is cast that is market negative or market positive . Do you think were making too much of a u. S. china trade deal . I dont, actually youre talking about the two biggest economies in the world that are really its not just about trade. As you all alluded to earlier, its about National Security, and potentially about a capital war. When we see the bills that are being put forth, bipartisan bills that could make it harder for americans to invest the china or china to list on u. S. Exchanges, its bigger than just trade. Its really are we going to have a multipolar world or are we going to break into two distinct blocks thats a longerterm issue this is a big deal i dont think were wrong to focus on it. But there are a lot of other drivers out there. We were just talking before the show as we get into yearend and we see all the large Financial Institutions have to prepare Balance Sheets for certain regulatory targets they have to meet, do we see a liquidity squeeze similar to what we saw at the end of large year theres loots of other factors so the point i would make is you dont want to take your eye off trade but you want to make sure youre not so obsessed with trade that you forget all the other variables. The liquidity squeeze that happened at the end of the year, that helped presip it the fall we saw at the end of the Fourth Quarter. The good news this year versus last year is last year as we went into december, we still had a tightening fed and now we not only have an easing fed, but we have dozens of Central Banks around the world that are cutting rates so its a different monetary backdrop so thats good news. If we have some sort of trade deal, certainly good news. But before you get over your skis euphoria, you need to remember that you still have those other variables such as banks tightening up liquidity conditions ahead of yearend that might put a cap on your yearend party. Great to see you, rebecca patterson. Gross oh, youve been in the camp that theres some sort of a deal to be had what happens to the utilities that you like, that have gotten such high valuations i think the money has to come out of them and i did get over my skis and i bought cyclicles and i bought them too early. Theyre at deep discounts and i think you will see a lot of profits there once the market does turn. Rebecca made a really good point to guys good question the point was are we focusing too much on just the china trade deal and she said the one differential on this quarter four versus last year was that rates are going up and now theyve been cut in half and theyre going lower. Heres the thing the last couple of times you tried buying stocks when the fed started cutting Interest Rates, if you go back to 2008 and you go back to 2000, it was not a good time to buy stocks. So here we are and both times the s p was just off of an alltime high. Im going to stay consistent, over the last 18 months every time you tried to buy the market to a prior high, it wasnt a good time to buy the market. Thats just the point. So we are not in a mid cycle adjustment we are in a rate cutting cycle and so the longer this trade war goes on, the longer the fed and the rest of the Central Banks around the world are going to be cutting Interest Rates. The former chairman and ceo of nasdaq will be here well give us his two cents and talk about his new book. Plus apple continuing its march to alltime highs. More fafast money right after this man can i find an Investment Firm that has a truly longterm view . It begins by being privately owned. With more than 85 years of experience over multiple market cycles. With Portfolio Managers who are encouraged to do whats right over whats popular. Focused on helping me achieve my investors unique goals. Can i find an Investment Firm that gets long term the way i do . With capital group, i can. Talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. Talk to your advisor or consultant tell him were flexible. Dont worry. My dutch is ok. Just ok . Tell him we need this merger. Its happening. just ok is not ok. Especially when it comes to your network. At t is americas best Wireless Network according to americas biggest test. Now with 5g evolution. The first step to 5g. More for your thing. Thats our thing. Finding another target as trade tensions rise with china the countrys biggest unicorn. This black list hits at the core of china aepz ambitions, Artificial Intelligence in particular it includes the countrys most promising startups and unlike huawei, theyre not dominant in their field and they can struggle more. It is a 4 billion unicorn that develops facial Recognition Technology it filed for a 1 billion ipo in hong kong which would make it the First Ai Company to go public the plans could now be complicated. Goldman sachs, one of the underwriters, says that its evaluating its involvement in the ipo. Thats a 7. 5 billion startup considered the worlds most val yoo valuable company both startups have a number of ambassadors and, while the latest u. S. Move could deal a significant blow to these companies, keep in mind that some of the biggest American Tech Companies have been banned in china for years theres google, facebook, twitter, youtube, all of the companies and Media Outlets that you see on your screen are currently locked out of china. All of this to underline the rule that tech continues to play in u. S. china relation. Thank you our next guest is a man who has navigated some of the biggest market moving events in the last two decades. Joining us is robert greifeld, the author of the new book, market mover, lessons from a decade of change at nasdaq its always great to see you. Its great to be here. Well talk about the book in just a minute, but i want to get to what weve been talking about. We see so many chinese ipos come and list at the nasdaq i think you have some level of concern, but understand when youre going through negotiations people take different positions to posture during the negotiation so i would guess right now its primarily posturing, except for the National Security aspect, which i think has some real components to it but i think you see a lot of posturing. I think it would be really counterproductive for chinese ipos not to access nasdaq in the deepest most liquid Capital Market on the planet they dont want to give up that opportunity. Could you see a scenario in which even if something doesnt happen formally, that there is a chill on chinese listings as they wait for clarity that that will not happen . It would be almost more detrimental for them to list and then be forced to delist. So your question is can i see that yes. Do i think thats the probable outcome . No, i believe that youll see Chinese Companies come here. I think were in the thick of this trade negotiation, posturing is going to be very heavy. You cant get too clouded by the smoke. Let see what happens when the deal is announced. Bob, obviously youre here for a long time and you understood the exchange extraordinary well mma in the space, nom mma not happening. What is your sense in terms of exchanges in the next year certainly the hong konglondon deal did not last long i would say you have to understand that exchanges are fundamentally Transaction Processing companies and i would say back in the day and im sure its probably true, in the Nasdaq Data Center you probably have enough Processing Power toprocess every equity trade on the planet. So if you could put more flow flew that platform, then you certainly have better economies to scale thats always going to be an underlying discussion when you think about exchanges or payment systems, anybody involved with that kind of Transaction Processing so its a constant fact of life. It doesnt mean its going to happen you also have to mitigate that by the fact you have nationalistic concerns and regulators involved and they like having dominion over their local exchange. So last week we saw a lot of venture capitalists get together and talk about doing direct listings what is the exchanges role in that are you kind of indifferent to that i dont want to speak for nasdaq today but i think at the end of the day youre relatively indifferent because the company is trading its really a changing of the initial Capital Raising function which the exchange is not directly involved with so its separating out really two functions. One is to get public and then the company can decide in the future when they want to raise capital. And the problem it solves, if it involves any problem, is that if a company goes public, the stock goes up 30 , it goes down 30 , then the investors dont feel smart. So you have a way to isolate the two actions. So youve seen during your tenure, you saw the active go to passive with etfs. Do you think that thats somehow brewing some sort of a whiplash effect in the market weve seen volume decrease but its dined of scary to the individual investors, the etfs, how many there are. You talk about what ive seen in the world when i started at nasdaq in 03, floorbased trading was the dominant form of trading so theres been so many changes and certainly passive has been a Massive Movement so i believe that it will seek its balance in time. And i would say if 98 of the world is passive and im active, im the 2 thats active, i think i can do pretty well as an active investor and be able to broadcast the results. Passive has predefined rules that they have to follow if youre an active trader you know what the rules are and you can figure out how to trade and invest in and around the rules so massive change, passive is certainly a dominant form in terms of growth. But i would not rule out the active guys over time. So you were here when google in 2004 went public and the world was convinced this was a Transformative Company so in the past year weve had some companies that people feel just as staunchly about. Why are these deals in 2019 not working the way that some other big deals have worked in the past lets not forget that google did not exactly work. It was an auction and those guys were willing to try something new. It was a dutch auction. Yes and they didnt actually run the dutch. But google first day trading was down it was not that success in a day. It was a success obviously over time so i use that google example to say to people looking at the current ipos, dont worry about the day, worry about the fundamental business that youre investing in and what its going to do over time. What i get annoyed with is when people say, all right, they waited too long to go public and thats like saying i waited too long to rip off the investors. No, i come public because i have a good solid business that has a growth plan over time. And whether i do it one year or the next shouldnt matter, because im executing my business the same as i would when i ran nasdaq, youre not thinking about the quarter but building the institution over time so the timing in the ipo i think is much adieu about nothing. Google was a good company even though the First Six Months was not successful i had the pleasure of speaking with you on sidewasqu box and you made some headlines when you compared whats going on with todays ipos it seems this bubble seems to be bursting not just on the first day, but also in the hands of the private capital that had invested in these stocks and so im wondering if you think that this is less detrimental, if the dotcom bubble was much bigger the comparison is interesting, but i feel like theres some shortfalls to it. I think there are because the comparison is really about one company in particular that i referenced you can figure out who it is and that had a lot of attributes of things we heard in the dotcom era with respect to eyeballs, great user interface as opposed to underlying Business Metrics so i think youre isolating it to one company that clearly felt like a dotcom i wrote an op edtoday just on that so i think that stands alone as the outlier for this time and place. Your book, market mover lesson from a decade of change at nasdaq. What is going to be the next change i wish i knew, but i can make a guess as anybody else can. So i think what youll see is that theres an increasing concentration of the Capital Markets in a couple of different places so if i am a company in a far away country, 15 years ago that company was locked into that world. Now with the electronics in place today, the mobility of capital, you want to go to the deep pool. So when you think about the world today, its really the u. S. Led by nasdaq, london and it has been hong kong. So i would guess that some place in Mainland China will take that role but youre going to see the financial role centered around three years. And i think the lesser markets will have issues over time competing with the deep liquidity in those major financial centers. Bob, great to see you. Its great to be here. Congratulations on your book. Bob greifeld i have the book. Did you read it already first of all, im disappointed because i like the books with the pictures and i was hoping we were here a long time, like maybe some fast money when were together all over these years so maybe in the second the second version, the second printing youre going to be on the cover, i think genius. The new book is called market mover, lessons from a decade of change at nasdaq pick a cope up you can read his op ed he mentioned it, its on our website. Weve got more coming up next. Announcer apples 2020 vision, why one top analyst says smart glasses could be the next big thing. And later, hitting head winds, what to expect from delta when it reports results tomorro stick with us. Fast money is back right after this along with support, chantix is proven to help you quit. With chantix you can keep smoking at first and ease into quitting. Chantix reduces the urge so when the day arrives, youll be more ready to kiss cigarettes goodbye. When you try to quit smoking, with or without chantix, you may have nicotine withdrawal symptoms. Stop chantix and get help right away if you have changes in behavior or thinking, aggression, hostility, depressed mood, suicidal thoughts or actions, seizures, new or worse heart or blood vessel problems, sleepwalking, or lifethreatening allergic and skin reactions. Decrease alcohol use. Use caution driving or operating machinery. Tell your doctor if youve had Mental Health problems. The most common side effect is nausea. Quit smoking slow turkey. Talk to your doctor about chantix. [spokesman] if youve tried colleg group cheering shed, snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelors degree. [woman] it doesnt matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu. Edu high protein. Low sugar. Tastes great high protein. Low sugar. So good high protein. Low sugar. Mmmm, birthday cake pure protein bars. Try lemon cake. A trifecta of headlines for apple this week. Raising its price target on the giants from 260 to 240, siting increased demand for the Iphone Models plus an analyst saying that apple may be planning new hardware releases, including smart glasses for early 2020 this inches the stock closer to a fresh alltime high. It is up 44 this year alone has the rally gone too far, too fast i would say if youre trading this stock this is a great opportunity to take money off the table. People are going to say youre out of your mind. Youre out of your mind you dont trade it you know what, you go back to october and the stock shot up to 229 and had an epic failure. Dan has spoken about this a number of times. From peek to trough, from 130 to 240 was a pretty swift move to the downside im not suggesting that will happen again, but look at what facebook has done over the last couple of months look at amazon, massive double top. Look now underperforming that stock has been the last month, month and a half so if youre trading the stock, why not take some money off the table. And if you want to buy it, thats a great way to phrase it. You wait until it makes a new high and you use that as your support. But the narrative was the hardware game was over, it was all about services the multiple was not going to increase you have a lot of levers that apple can pull now and now hardware is a tail wind . Its a buy now. This is a classic position that we always talk about. The positioning on apple had gotten negative when it came to sentiment around the iphone 11, and so incrementally it looked a little better and now people are on the other side of the boat. I suspect a lot of the move that weve seen off the lows is anticipation or at least speculation that things werent as bad as sentiment thought. Now sentiment is saying, hey, everything seems to be great theres going to be all these things coming out. So everybody is on that side of the boat is going to be on the other. I think guy adami is on that side of the boat. Thats dangerous when a boat lists. Dan, everybody who says negative dan, hes such a downer. Everybody says that hes actually had some bullish option action in the apple. Ive seen it on your show, hes done a tremendous job. Weve said for a long time the stock will sell at 228 i think guy mentioned the peak and trough decline. This company gave optimistic guidance and i think they thought the world that they lived in, that they were selling into china wasnt going to be altered that much by trade but on january 2nd when they preannounced the first time in like ten years on a negative basis, the stock had had a 40 peak to trough decline here we are year over year, the dollar is higher that last q4 in china, their units, iphone units were down 30 and a lot of that had to do with just their slowing economy, the trade war. So when you think about apple and the hardware in china, 6. 5 market share, number five behind four locals. I just dont see in this q4 how theyre going to be able to put up big hardware numbers. And if the chinese want to regulate apple, they can do it in services and they can do it in the app store theyre already starting to push back. To get back to the positioning point, everyone threw out the hardware number to trough levels that everyone discounted it off their Balance Sheets so right now all they have to do is surprise even incrementally. Except the government is getting mad about an app they have on their store that tracks police for hong kong protesters. Didnt you just say that buy it if it makes a newtime high yeah. But youre not saying to buy here. Youve got to wait until it trades above 233. Are you predicting another repeat of q4 i think the company would be crazy not to give cautious guidance they got caught with their pants down last q4 in china and the breeze wasnt so great. Wow, that is amazing. Well done. At its high it had a trillion dollar market cap. It lost 40 . Thats real breeze. Thats wind coming up, options traders are beth that this Airline Stock is about to take off. Well reveal the name. Plus bed, bath beyond surging. Well give you the dai aetlsnd a whole retail roundup much more fast money right after this but in my mind im still 25. Thats why i take osteo biflex, to keep me moving the way i was made to. It nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. Osteo biflex now in triple strength plus magnesium. Filmgate is growing really staffing a small bquickly and. Is challenging. I needed to fill a production coordinator role. I was looking for someone with specific skills. So i posted a job on linkedin. Maribel had all the skills i was looking for. And looking at her profile. I saw shared connections. That was a plus. But the most important thing. Is the ability to connect to people and she had it. And i knew. She was the one. Post a job today at linkedin. Com grow welcome back to fast money. Check out bed, bad and beyond, surging 21. 5 after hours. Lets go back to headquarters for more. Thats right, minutes after target announced his departure about an hour ago, bed, bath and beyond named mark trenton its new ceo. Trenton was targets chief merchandising officer. Bed, bath and beyond is in the midst of a transformation that is seeing closures, and a board revamp many of those coming from three activist investors the market is clearly cheering trentons appointment. One source close told courtney ragen earlier, we dont only like this pick, we love this pick everything mark did at target is exactly what bed, bath beyond needs. Now weve got to see can he deliver more its a 55 shortage, so you have to be very careful whenever you get any hint of positive news. But when you look back at the chart the last thing you want to hear out of your stock is were back to 1998 support this has been an avalanche off a cliff, but you would not want to be shorting it right here. Obviously any hint of good news at all, and if the ceo comes in and starts closing stores, running it more efficient the upside could really hurt the shorts tremendously from this point going forward. If one of the activists is saying we love this pick that certainly pavs the way for some change. One thing stuck out and we actually talked about it merchandised inventory went down 17 . They stripped down inventory in a major way. What does that mean . Maybe theyre sort of greasing the skids for the next quarter maybe margins will improve comps are a disaster, but to steves. 53 shortage. It was a 14 price targets thats probably where it trade to. These were called big box retailers for a reason let me tell you what happens right now. I spent a little time in the bed, bath beyond recently. When they dont have what you want, you go home and go to amazon and you order it and it gets delivered to your house all the 20 coupons, you want, im just saying. Youre Shopping Habits notwithstanding, dan, i think the stock can go higher. I think steves point about the short interest, every time it sells off you probably buy it. Weve got a market flash on pg e. Melissa, pg e shares are falling nearly 20 in extended trade. The company has already declared chapter 11 now dow jones reporting that a bankruptcy judge has opened the door to a rival chapter 11 exit plan this opens up other potential plans coming from bond holders, so this is essentially a win for them some context here, wildfire victims are joining forces with bond holders to contest the current plan according to the latest headlines, the judge is ruling that the utility will face competition and again handed a win to bond holders. Melissa, back to you. Up next, taking flight, delta gearing up to report earnings tomorrow well tell you how the Options Market is setting up and as we head to break, Sustainable Investing is growing in popularity. Its more than doubled in 2019 the founder of Rock Creek Capital will explain why the rating is a good indicator of longterm profitability. I think the agencies will have to integrate esg into there and youre starting to see that. And i think the other thing is that so far its been about Quarterly Earnings and if you move towards longer term sustainability of a company, not just Quarterly Earnings, i think obviously you have to be investing in longterm value and investing in your staff and team. Otherwise you dont have a company. Announcer for more investment ideas from the biggest names, visit deliveringalpha. Com. Its abou. No trendy stuff. I want etfs backed by research. Is it built for the longterm . My reputation depends on it. Flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. So you can advise with confidence. Before investing, consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Delta heads into tomorrows Earnings Report down 6 since warning last week that tariffs on airbus jets with seriously inflict harm but the stock may actually be primed for takeoff roger is here to break down the action good to see you. As you mentioned, trading three times the daily volume of the puts and implies a 4 move going into earnings tomorrow now, what this means is quick trade school here, calculate the implied move, you take the cost of the atthemoney call and the atthemoney put and you divide by the stock price in deltas case were talking about the 54 call and put, divide by todays Closing Price of 53, gets you the 4 , close enough, implied move where you make money over 56 or below 52 now, this implied move is more than usual because probably last earnings you had delta move over 5 its given back all the gains and then some and is down about 10 in the last week breaking this oneyear up trend line. We look longer term, youre going to see delta has basically been in a move trading range from 62 down to 45 17point trading range were right in the middle of that i dont like those trades. Thats a oneup down risk reward i really dont like those trades back to you, melissa. He threw it back to you its his first time. Its brilliant, its not hard i mean it is hard, very hard dan last night said what jerks we were the first time he came on i thought he did a tremendous job. So really interesting about delta, we had a little guidance last week that stock had sold off about 10 . Below the uptrend, that implied move kind of fat for a stock that he just showed us the longterm has been in a trading range. So when you see implied Movement Like that, it could set up for long holders to sell premium and take in some yields. So i think thats an interesting setup. Do you know what the best months are for Delta November and december you buy it now in october. He was bullish i agree with that stance. We had good moves for the airlines we had American Airlines moving higher. The point is they go nowhere. You have a oneday move that sound great but then it peters out. So particularly delta has effectively been dead money. If you like to trade those ranges, knock yourself out i dont see them going anywhere. Speaking of delta, were going to hear from the companys ceo after the report be sure to catch the interview 7 00 a. M. Eastern on squawk box. Announcer options action is sponsored by think or swim by ameritrade woman what gives me confidence about Investment Decisions . Rigorous fundamental research. With Portfolio Managers focused on the long term. Who look beyond the spreadsheets to understand companies, from breakroom to boardroom. Who know the only way to get a 360 view is to go around the world to get it. Can i rely on deep research to help make quality Investment Decisions . With capital group, i can. Talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. Talk to your advisor or consultant that could allow hackers devices into your home. Ys and like all doors, theyre safer when locked. Thats why you need xfinity xfi. With the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. Which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. And people inside from accidentally visiting sites that arent secure. And if someone trys well let you know. Xfi advanced security. If its connected, its protected. Call, click, or visit a store today. Welcome back to fast money. Shredded, dead money, not working, spending unchecked, downgrading. Just a few of the scathing words bernstein had more fedex this morning and you would expect that to tank the stock but you would be wrong fedex hung in there today. This is just the latest blow for the shipping giant which is down more than 20 since it reported earnings last month. Is this an example of bad news, good price action . For today, absolutely and maybe for the next couple of days but where is bernstein 18 months ago . Fair question thats a fair question. They watch the show. Where were you 18 months ago the things that they said bernstein, line one i get a lot wrong, but collectively weve been saying for the last year that fedex is doing everything wrong the stock still has room to the downside i think today is a nice start in terms of what it did i think theres still further room to the downside. If it breaks here, its going back to the 2016 low, which is 120, thats 10 . Not everyone can get these things right all the time. But at the end of the day, it is a value trap and theyve got a lot of competing head winds. Im sit here today even sure this rally was that great in view of how the market traded today, for fedex i would not call this good price action. I still think it goes lower. You have ups and you have fedex. You cant talk about one without the other. Ups is up 60 . Fedex down 13 year to date. So now it gets back to the positioning again. Everyone is so long ups, short fedex, i think you have to unwind the trade. So would you be long . I have to look at the seasonality of fedex as well, november seems like a pretty good month for fedex historically. I thought that Fourth Quarter was terrible for these guys for the past couple of years. Overstaffed through the holiday season. Talking about monthly, though, not the actual quarter as a whole if you look at monthly performance, the 30day performance for november and obviously december skewed everybody last year. So you have to throw that year out and look at it as a hole on a mth, veonlynomber is a great month. Up next, final trades [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler. So you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. To take care of yourself. But natures bounty has innovative ways to help you maintain balance and help keep you active and wellrested. Because hey, tomorrows coming up fast. Natures bounty. Because youre better off healthy. I bought roku last week and im still long i think it has the upside to maybe 125 at this point. Gold has been on fire a lot of people buying gold, but people buying gold mines check out jdxj. I would not be buying apple into the october 30th range. I think thats going to be right down and im going to be reading that sucker when i get home. It doesnt have pictures. Wouldnt it be nice to have a fast money monday taj in the middle of the book i will tell you the news in california, out the power outages, you know what, its not a oneday event. That does it for us see you back here tomorrow at 5 00 mad money with jim cramer starts right now my mission is im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere. I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. Im just trying to save you money. My job isnt just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1800743cnbc. Or tweet me kpat jim cramer. There is a gaping hole in the American Education system. Although each calling it a system seems overly