Decline and a loss of momentum in the market overall. Steve, this is one of those situations where over the last couple of weeks there have been folks who have said the market has been hot this year its due for maybe a breather. Is the problem right now the idea that there is no nearterm catalyst to propel things back towards the upside yeah, but you could argue there were no nearterm catalysts to propel it to the upside from the beginning of the year in fact, there are negative catalysts that should have propelled it downward. I dont think its necessary catalysts. The market was tough to figure out all year this is the easiest part of the market to figure out, because it had a big run, were in the dog days of summer, volume is lighter and its typically when the market takes a breather. I dont think you can draw anything from the direction. Im so tired of hearing about the 50day moving average. Hearing about it every 10, 15 minutes. It Means Nothing it may mean something for shortterm technical trades, but for fundamental investors, it Means Nothing. Lets stop with the 50day moving average but folks are using levels like that to figure out its a talking point. Its a talking point, and if theyre looking to pull back to a certain level, they say i want to step in and buy more on sale, sometimes people use those moving averages. Sometimes some people do. Its a smaller segment of the market its mostly algos. Some technical traders if i see a stock particularly cheap, im not going to say i have to see if this breaks the 50day moving average. Bill, theres also a positioning factor at play you watch a lot in the derivatives markets. You check out whats happening with futures, how traders are positioned, long or short futures markets, options, contracts. Is there anything youre cleaning right now with regard to whether or not theres a momentum shifting around in thee upside or the down side . The bias is for healthy consolidation. I do disagree, there was a catalyst to start the year, it was the underpositioning it is the negativity that was there. Earnings were really they were pricing in the trough that was here to come i think that now its the total opposite everybody is really buying into this rally, putting money to work june and july seasonality. This is the dog days of summer now were seeing consolidation this is a healthy consolidation. We were saying a 5 pullback, right now its about 4 . Its moving into the 50day moving average this is healthy, though. Im looking at this as being very healthy now as carl points out and mike santoli as well, were not that far away from that price its not that this is one factor that is going to dictate the entire direction of the market, but its a milestone its a marker along the way that people look at karen firestone, i would like to bring you into the conversation. Steve brought up the idea that fundamentals are an important part of the picture as to why the markets are trading the way they are do you feel as though some of the fundamentals that weve seen at least, so far this earnings season, have justified the valuations at current levels or do you feel as though this particular part of the market maybe is due for the pause because the fundamentals are just about where they should be . Sure. Thanks, dom. I think that what bill said is absolutely true. The market was cheap it was down at its low for the s p in october and december. 28th was the bottom for the nasdaq remember, the stocks that were talking about, the mega cap names were up between 36 and 48 on average but you had names like meta up its still up 150 they were cheap stocks these stocks got crushed during 2022 they deserved to go higher now that theyve gone higher and people have piled into them, because with so much market cap available, its easy to buy these stocks theyre wellknown names so, they perhaps have gone a little ahead of themselves if you look at, you know, alphabet, for example, its below a market multiple. These have not been such fantastic stocks that you say, my god, theyre 75 times earnings we think a pause is healthy because the rest of the market is up single digits. If you look at sectors other than consumer discretionary, technology and Communications Services that are all up in that 40 range, youre really talking about the rest of the market up low single digits. If the rest of the market starts to show earnings that can sustain multiples in a 15 to 20 range and they should if the earnings start to improve and we dont have a recession, i think we can see more growth in the market after weve had this pause. Maybe a month or two the market is still only 7 from its alltime high right now. So, shannon, theres been a dynamic that maybe steve, also bill and karen just alluded to, the idea that theres a consolidation happening right now. What does the consolidation look like to you . Were seeing signs that theres traders and investors who are in essence maybe mini rotating, if you want, out of names into technology and into places like energy and health care is this the beginning of at least a bit of a mean reversion trade back towards some of those value parts of the market . Well, i think one of the things that you have to remember is that coming into this year, those two sectors that you mentioned, energy and health care, were tops on the list for many investors in terms of which sectors they thought would outperform this year clearly we have not experienced that so, i think, number one, just looking at it from a portfolio construction standpoint, taking some gains off the table, there has been significant money made in this top 7, 10, 15 stocks, whatever you want to call it i think rotation makes sense in terms of energy, certainly the economic environment is supportive of a rotation back into Energy Stocks i think thats what youre seeing there with health care, there are a number of different facets of health care, whether its managed care, drugs or disposables. Health care is a very wide, varied sector. We talk about this regarding industrials earlier this week. Its true for health care as well theres lots of different places to play in health care a number of those have not participated if youre thinking about just from an overall risk standpoint taking some of your winners off the table, taking some of those gains and reallocating to places where if we do experience a broadening out, there is relative value from a multiple perspective, its easier to find in those sectors like energy and health care than it is in other parts of technology. Steve, do you feel as though after seeing what we saw with the Consumer Price index data, and then what we saw with the Producer Price index data, so retail and business level inflation, do we feel as though theres no such thing as an all clear in the market. But do we feel as though the macro picture is stable enough right now where people can feel good about where they are in the market as opposed to fearing for a surge in inflation again and higher Interest Rates on the back of that and Everything Else no. I think theres something for bulls and bears in numbers you had a revision so, it was a little hotter this report when you factor in the revision downward from last month, youre basically hitting consensus. You have to look at it on an average basis. Clearly inflation has come down quite a bit, you still have Services Inflation which is being stubborn i dont think you look at the market in isolation. As we talked earlier, we have Credit Card Debt thats going a lot higher our economy is driven by the consumer its plain and simple. Twothirds of it thats true of most economies. I think you could have comfort i dont see a deep, dark recession, but youve also had some little dents in the goldilocks scenario where youre trying to thread all the fed tightening with a soft landing what set up for that, as bill talked about, what got you to these levels, which, by the way, markets didnt get where it is on fundamentals. It got where it is on momentum its coming back now momentum is reversing. So, no i think you take as much comfort today as you took yesterday, if youre a bull. As little comfort today as you did yesterday if youre a bear thats what makes markets. Steve brings up an interesting point with regard to some of the drivers. He mentioned the Services Side of things. One other part that gets attention is housing, property value, owner equivalent rents. Basically the cost of living from a housing and real estate perspective remains stubbornly high and it has not really pulled back to a certain degree that can kind of aid that inflationary story the Housing Market as a part of the overall stock market has been a momentum trade for various parts of the year. Do you think that housing story is in a consolidation or transition phase as well right now . Housing is a challenging area in that longerterm this is not actually dissimilar to energy, but longer term theres an undersupply, particularly for Residential Housing in the United States. On the back of that secular trend and inclusive of the fact that millennials are beginning to accelerate household formation as they move past the household payment part of their life cycle, there will be fits and starts in the housing story. This constant give and take, if you will, as it relates to supply is offset, particularly in this environment, by the challenge of affordability so, if we look at the Housing Market, what we really need to see, we need to see a reset of expectations in terms of affordability and Mortgage Rates going forward, which probably means we need to see expectations for rates to come down modestly in order to increase that affordability. I think as it relates to housing, theres a mobility aspect of this that remains somewhat unclear if youre thinking about, yes, were building houses, and who is buying those houses, in many cases it will be have to be new entrants into the Housing Market, not existing home buyers because they are anchored to very low Mortgage Rates. I think trying to figure out, you know, specifically where this housing growth is going to come from, how these companies will be able to monetize that and what types of customers and clients going after, you know, with some of the highend homes, for instance, where you would be required to sell an existing property and move into that, Mortgage Rates are prohibitive right now to support an en masse trade. What drives the economy typically are housing and auto sales, two major pillars of the economy. We heard about housing auto sales, used car prices are showing some decline if you go to trade in your smart car, your cute little smart car that you own thats what i got or your wife goes to sell her ferrari, the ferrari will hold the price because its luxury but your cute little car, you will get less for it thats a positive for inflation but you have to get through Services Inflation bill, heres what i want to say. We have talked about some of the ideas that there are maybe some fissures or cracks developing right now, nothing panicky or nefarious, but im curious about the momentum as you see things in technology. You did make some moves in your trading side of things we talked about the idea that you had some hedges on against your triple qs position against the nasdaq 100 yep can you take us through what you did and why . Leading up to the end of july, i was talking about looking at this summer doldrum, well go through seasonality so we got ahead of it. At the end of the july, we raised about 10 cash netted ultimately when we did that, it was the big tech names we sliced off. We cut totally tesla and amd, but doing that it was netting 10 because we also added to chevron, added to pioneer, opened amgen as a new position its been a rotation that weve done but theres still cash now now that the market has sold off, im looking at it as an opportunity to go shopping i want to be patient here. Its important to be patient right now every rally is getting slammed. It seems like every time this market rallies a bit, people are selling into it. The way i looked at the qqqs as protection, last year we would do a 1 to 1. 5 position sizing on puts. We were on a downtrend now were in an uptrend. Just to be clear, you basically own the qs and owned puts on the qs we owned the stocks we owned individual stocks but you then bought the puts on the qs. Yes we did raise cash, but prior to raising cash, we had a 50 position in tech we raised about 10 cash, call it 40 , 35 in tech still. Thats my fear, if the market starts to sell off, tech will be leading the down side. Having the 40 basis point put position is just a cushion to digest this. Well have inflation numbers, jobs numbers as we look at these numbers that have come out, inflation is cooling but its supposed to cool we couldnt rally yesterday or hold the rally the market ended up slamming down i cut these puts earlier in the week because it did what i wanted it cushioned this move here. We can go through a bottoming process as the market digests things it shows how fickle the market is when you get a ppi number today that was still high. The thing about that ppi, the market reacted to that but it couldnt hold the rally to a softer cpi the producers, these Producer Prices, who are the producers . They are the public companies. These this uptick it was pretty much disinflationary up until today. These companies will be quantitative easing lower. This is good news to see a bit of an uptick in ppi, while cpi is trending lower. Then we get Michigan Consumer data today i thought it was a terrific read it came in at 3. 3 as Inflation Expectations chairman powell talked about i over and over and over again that Inflation Expectations are a selffulfilling prophecy if people thinkinflation will go higher, it will rise. Karen, one more road to you before we accelerate this conversation the tech trade weve been talking about right now, do you feel from a fundamental analyst standpoint that the Technology Trade is still worth buying at these levels even with the pullback in elevated valuations . I think this depends. If you look across the landscape, you can find names selling for under the market multiple with strong Growth Prospects over the next couple of years the chip cycle has been very hot it continues to be nvidia is an expensive stock its coming down theres a price at which people might want to buy it amd, same thing. Component companies. There are technology is very broad as a sector. Im not suggesting that its all oversold overbought some of it is, some of it is expensive. Its important to stay committed to the names that we dont think are expensive and look for some ideas that might be becoming less expensive now i would say its not a trade now. There could still be some weakness its pretty much in balance. As an investment, i think you pick up the ones that are reasonably priced. If youre investing, you cant pick the bottom. Or just leg in in dollar cost exactly right the nasdaq 100 is breaking below that key technical level this week, that could mean more down side ahead according to our next guest lets bring in jonathan krinski. You see all of these charts, lines and levels take us through why you think there could be could be hypothetically danger ahead. So, theres you guys have been talking about some of the moving averages. For us, moving averages are more a gauge of trend the fact we broke under the 50day moving average, there could be some issues there thats not the key reason that concerns us. The two key reasons are the volume profile that we talk about. Most people look at volume on a time series, how much volume trades any given day we like to look at it on a price basis, how much volume trades at each given price level over the last three years what weve found is around the 369, 370 level, there is a significant amount of trade. The fact we broke over that opens a down side volume pocket. We accelerated so quickly from the upside in late april when the qs were around 320 we rallied 16 from late april to late to midjune when the qs were around 370. That quick move on the upside can often be unwound on the down side that is the issue, the significant volume pocket. The other issue is momentum. If you look at weekly mac d, specifically the xlk, were switching from a sell signal, positive territory you have momentum leaning starting to roll of and a significant break of what we consider key supports. All that suggests down side risk ahead to us. Jonathan, weve made a lot and talked a lot about this idea that certain parts of the Technology Trade have been more impacted from a Downside Momentum standpoint than others. You highlight the semiconductors i wonder if there are other places in the market that youre watching now that are starting to show signs of deterioration or perhaps a pick up, if you will, even if there is such a case is it in Cloud Computing or software, cybersecurity or fintech or the multitude of different places we know tech is a broad umbrella to cover all these industries under. Clearly semiconductors are at the heart of some of the down side momentum. They were the leaders on the upside the way tech has traded for the last two years, its broadbased. You could differentiate the faang names from the smaller cap tech names its pretty broadbased some of the sell signals semis are Vulnerable Software is probably vulnerable. After you get that shakeout and pull back, thats when you can differentiate and start to see some relative strength from that pullback on the flip side, there is some positive momentum that were starting to see in the commodities space, energy has been a leadership area while tech is sending weekly sell signals, energy is seeing a buy signal we like energy versus tech here. Weve been talking about that for the last few weeks all right energy versus tech thats the from you. Thank you very much. Well see you soon thanks. If tech is rolling over, where do you want to be . Jonathan said energy is showing signs of life. Bill baruch is rotate nothing an industrial name. We added caterpillar this week caterpillar i like where they are. Theyre across the scope of industrials from construction to mining to energy to rails and marine theyre all over the place theyre the quintessential Industrial Company probably one of the top couple Earnings Reports this earnings season they broke out to a new record high after that. Its consolidated nice there after a couple of days postreport. This just goes to the theme of rotating where will we look for out performance this year . If tech is not up 40 the second half of the year, where will we go ive been talking about industrials, health care and energy to put myself in position here, Industrial Company that we do own is mass tech i talked about it a couple times. They set a record high last thursday and on friday reported earnings, down 20 , delayed contracts. Theyre an Infrastructure Company i still like, but if i need exposure in industrials right now from a positioning standpoint and mass tech wont do it for me, i need to get it from somewhere else. Caterpillar will be that spot. Are there places, karen, that you would be looking to get into outside of technology elsewhere in the marketplace are there compelling values in your mind . Sorry about that. I hope you can still see me. Its true that technology, if it takes a pause, which it seems to be doing, should mean that we go to other places. Health care is one industrials. I think caterpillar is interesting other than its at an alltime high we own a company, fortiv it did nothing for a while i would say its a mini conglomerate of interesting instrumentation and health care and technology within one Industrial Company and that stock is finally breaking out it looked similar to the caterpillar chart today. Health care. We think that United Health care is interesting here. Its not been a great stock recently, but we know were 3. 5 unemployment those people need insurance. This is a fantastic great cash flowing company that sells for a market multiple. In financials, how about a name like charles schwab. Charles schwab has suffered from being a san franciscobased financial company. Meanwhile its trading at a low multiple and shown a lot of good momentum and organi ic growth. Charter communications, a low teen multiple stock. It is starting to move its up about 20 from the bottom recently. It has had a tough time getting there. Those are names and stocks that we could find to buy here. Shannon, the last word before we head out to break is this idea of a rotation making anything seem at least part of the market seem more attractive to you versus others . I think one of the things our team focuses on is higher earnings visibility, high quality and lower beta so, i think this rotation is moving closer into some of the areas of the market and particular industries that are represented by those categories. So, you know, some of the areas, food and staples, retailing, telecom, i think that we have been notably somewhat cautious this year as it relates. Again, if you look at whats going to drive the next year or so, we would have said coming into this year that multiple expansion was not going to drive the market weve certainly seen that. Going back to strong earnings and companies with strong earnings and high earnings visibility going into next year, thats where were targeting, you know, in terms of our interest shannon, do you see any of those any Industry Groups that stand out given those characteristics that you were just talking about well, weve talked a lot about health care. I dont want to beat a dead horse. Ill beat a half dead horse there. Thats certainly an area were interested in. An area where emphases has been placed elsewhere is reits, for instance theres been a concern about office, real estate, cre in particular they probably deserve another look and personal products. If youre thinking about an area of the market that perhaps has been bypassed for more discretionary areas of the space, personal products is an area that makes sense. Shannon, thank you very much. Well take a break coming up next, a bullish call on one Big Oil Stock saying shares could rise 30 from here. Bill baruch owns that chart of the day here, that mystery chart. Well debate it in the nt llexca of the day segment halftime is back after this. One prawn. Very good. Did i say chicken wrong . Tired of people not listening to what you want . Its truffle season ah thats okay. Never enough truffles. How much are they . Its a lot. Oh okay im good, that its like a priceless piece of art. Enjoy. Or when they sell you what they want . Yeah. The more we understand you, the better we can help you. Thats what u. S. Bank is for. Huge relief. Yeah. This thing, its making me get an ice bath again. What do you mean . These straps are mindblowing they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. And you are . Im an investor. In invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to. Nasdaq 100 innovations like. Wearable training optimization tech. Uh, how long are you. Im done. Im okay. Every business thats why comcast business de is launching theal. Mobile made free event. With our business internet, new and existing customers can get one year of unlimited mobile for free. Its our best internet. Powered by the next generation 10g network and with 99. 9 reliability. Plus one line of free mobile for an entire year. Its the mobile made free eventhappening now. Get started for just 49. 99 a month. Plus, ask how to get one free line of unlimited mobile. Comcast business, powering possibilities. Bridgett is here. She has no clue that im here. She has no clue whos in the helmet. Are you ready . Im ready alright. Xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and onceinalifetime. Welcome back im Contessa Brewer. Heres your news update. That wildfire that leveled the hawaiian town of lahaina is now about 80 contained. Firefighters are making progress over two other firefighters. The devastation is still widespread governor josh green says it is the states largest Natural Disaster ever. He spoke with President Biden about hawaiis immediate needs officials report at least 55 people have died and the damage they predict will take years to repair and cost billions. Attorney general Merrick Garland announced hes appointing a special counsel in the hunter biden investigation david weiss who has been running the investigation will assume that role. The attorney general said weiss asked earlier this week for that change. Russia launched its first moon landing spacecraft in nearly 50 years. If the mission is successful, russia would be the first country to land on the lunar south pole, an area believed to hold pockets of water. The lander is expected to touch down in ten days well keep our eye on that all right Contessa Brewer with the news update thank you very much. Lets talk about the energy trade. Wells fargo making a bullish call on chevron saying shares of 30 upside from here its our call of the day bill, you actually own chevron yeah. Its right outside our top five. If you look at the resource life of these wells out there, for the last deck kid it halved. The world is demanding more and more oil as time goes. I love that chevron is in great position here. The company had a Solid Earnings report outside of the fact that earnings were lower the last quarter, but i think oil prices will be higher we increased chevron recently. We increased Pioneer Natural Resources which i think has a terrific spot with lowcost permian assets permian is a real place where production is picking up steve, is the oil and gas complex something youre even contemplating right now . If so, why if not, why not . I do contemplate is all the time its just not a sector that i think is prone to solid analysis you have a couple of outsized parties which are opec and opec plus that really drive it. Its by their whim, do they cheat, do they not cheat is china going to open or not open i prefer to play in sustainable demand thats growing and thats in freeport. Energy is always a trade i dont view it as a longterm investment the stock charts bear that out shannon, your thoughts here do you feel as though its attractive, energy, or not attractive at these levels were still posting in the sector, dom, negative year over year earnings for this sector. I think that the thing that to remember is i touched on it earlier this undersupply of the market we actually got more supply this year than we were anticipating, if you cobble together from all of the different sources that was primarily from nonopec plus members that we saw more supply on to the market. That, next year, could come down a bit. Our team has taken a look at this they have indicated that we could see lower supply in 2024, particularly here in the United States in terms of our supply into the market. If you base your expectations for Energy Stocks on Energy Prices, which have very strongly correlated over time, then that undersupply could create an opportunity next year, particularly if Economic Growth continues to point to a stronger outcome next year than was expected in the last couple of months all right so, that is our call of the day on energy. Straight ahead, well hit our chart of the day, the one sector notching its largest weekly inflows, fund flows since april. How the committee is positioned for that sector coming up next on the half. This is cynthia suarez, cfo of gogo foodco. , an Online Food Delivery service. Business was steady, until. Gogofoodco. Go check it out. Whaatt . overnight, users tripled. Which meant hiring 20 new employees and buying 20 new laptops. So she used her American Express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. Somebody ordered some laptops . Cynthia suarez. Cfo. Mvp. Built for cynthias business. Built for your business. Amex business. The first time your sales reached 100k with godaddy was also the first time your profits left you speechless. At the counter or on the go, save 20 with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. Start saving today at godaddy. Com welcome back to halftime report. Health care is just one of two sectors leading the s p this month. Check out our chart of the day which is bank of americas Michael Hartnet pointing out that health net saw the largest inflows since april. Karen, you have had some exposure here. Take us through the through the thought process. I think the inflows to health care are attributed almost 100 to the new diet drugs like ozempic and wegovy if you look at the charts of novo nordisk and lilly, both of whom participate in the field and announced if youre on these pills your risk of some type of heart event goes down, which makes sense because youre eating less food and less fat. That affects your heart. Those stocks have been unbelievable because these are blockbuster drugs. This is the ai equivalent in health care. Now, you have participation across the sector. We dont own these two stocks, but we do own companies that provide tools and instrumentation to biotechnology and to pharmaceuticals that are developing these drugs so, thermo fisher, which we owned for a long time. Its been a good stock and it suff suffered, but thats a name we like [ inaudible ] i think we lost kari for a second if you look at the way the inflows shaped up. Inflows are a sentiment gauge, kind of where the rubber meets the road people feel i want in. They give their mutual fund money or an etf money to a manager and say buy these stocks it could be one of the things where this is the early stage of that boom towards health care or is this something shortlived and we move on after a bit im preparing as if it will be lasting within our rotation weve taken some money out of tech and put it into these names. We added amgen, which had a terrific Earnings Report abbvie, thermo fisher. A bunch of these names i think well see the ball continue to roll, at least the second half of the year. If tech is not going to be up 40 or 50 the second of the year, where will you get out performance . I think health care is going through a nice accumulation, it bottoms out nice it had a great year last year. Encompasses a lot of different parts. You tend not to go as much towards the Drug Companies as you do the insurance things. Can you tell us why . Yeah. I think theyre more stable, predictable earnings and a lot cheaper. Im still benefiting you know, if you take a look at the obesity in the country, 41. 7 of the people in the u. S. Are obese. Yes. You have a lot of pick up on the drugs, but most of those people are insured. What does it do if youre insured if diabetes incidents go down, cardiac disease goes down . If you take those risks out of the system, the care of doing that, now its preventive, what will you do . Youll have fatter margins to health care. Then theres also productivity now youre able to get closer to the desk and youre making fewer mistakes on the keyboard the insurers will benefit as much if not more than the Drug Companies, because eventually there will be generics first its one company, then two, then three. Thats why i like the Health Care Companies humana has gone from 420 to 520. United health, great setup as well in their quarter. They are managed well. As Insurance Companies theres not a lot of variability in their earnings to me, theyre still very cheap. I like them. My biggest position combined, both of them humanity and United Health. Coming up, retail is a big theme for earnings next week Courtney Reagan will give us the setup and well debate the effects on the consumer. Halftime report is become after this the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . 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Courtney reagan has that setup for retail courtney we have two dow components, discounters and several others that are reporting results next week while the consumer has proven pretty resilient in the face of inflation, worry looms that theres a breaking point coming. Investors want to know if its here now walmart is getting two price target upgrades today. While the street has gotten increasingly concerned about target why . One reason is if consumers are buying more discretionary categories like clothing and electronics, and more groceries, that trade favors walmart over target home depot is forecasting a year of moderation but investors may be expecting more. If consumers are worried about a recession, tjx and ross stores may potentially see a boost. Well have to wait and see courtney, one last thing before we let you go whats the biggest report youre watching next week its got to be walmart. Walmart is obviously one that the street always watches to see whats going on with the consumer they have a nice Cross Section they also have their sams Club Business which tells us about an entirely different kind of consumer and helps us see about what might be going on at costco i think theres just so many different details that you can pull out of that report. It often just sort of helps us to understand what might be coming from other retailers going down the line all right Courtney Reagan, thank you very much well see you all next week. Kari, you own home depot bank of america is bullish on it saying the time is to see those trends improve the time to buy right now as things trough and get better do you agree with that call . We definitely do agree with that the stock obviously suffered when people stopped spending money on building a new deck on their house, which they did during covid and started to go to concerts. But thats now past over the last year and a half theyre doing a little bit of both theyre going to concerts but also starting to spend money on goods. Were seeing that across the board. We have not heard from home depot yet, the stock is up about 17 since the middle of may. The market is up 5. 5 because investors are anticipating well hear something positive. The number may not be great but the trends may be very good and indicate that consumers are once again shopping at home depot pros are using the business. We think the product categories are great and some of the Commodity Prices have come down. That would be great for the next few quarters all right shannon, what is courtney alluded to the consumer what do you think we get in terms of consumer commentary next week . Well, not only do we have all of these retailers reporting, but we have retail sales, too. I think we get a read, number one, perhaps in the earnings to some extent about the relative strength of the consumer and where theyre continuing to spend. I think, again, courtney mentioned it, middle of the store spending, which tends to be more discretionary categories frankly, affords better margins and more Pricing Power pore these entities thats probably going to continue to come down a bit. The other thing to look at is if we look at the Inflation Report that we saw yesterday. We experienced an increase in food at home and Energy Prices so, both of those categories tend to take away from discretionary spend at big box retailers. Commentary on that will be important. The last thing is theft. We heard a lot about shrink over the last 18 months or so thats very difficult for analysts to quantify i think thats important, again, when looking at margins for the big box retailers. All right that was the call on the consumer straight ahead, we have the china trade as President Biden calls the Economic Situation a ticking time bomb. The keta and reaction for how you should be positioned for the china trade next opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. Its raising capital to help companies change the world. Opportunity is making the dream of Home Ownership a reality. And driving the world forward to a Greener Energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. At ice, we connect people to opportunity. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. fan 1 there ya go thats what im talkin about t. Rowe price, josh allen is this your plan to watch the game today . hero fan uh, yea. I have to watch my neighbors nfl sunday ticket. josh allen its not your best plan. But you know what is . Myplan from verizon. Switch now and theyll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. hero fan this plan is amazing josh allen another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. fan 1 that was josh allen. fan 2 mmhm. vo for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. A 449 value. Plus, get a free Samsung Galaxy z flip5. Only on verizon. Welcome back the war of words between the u. S. And china heating up as joe biden calls chinas economy a ticking time bomb. He made those comments during a fund raiser last night in utah just the latest dig aimed at beijing. The president rolled out an executive order banning certain u. S. Technology investments in china. This comes as you get increasingly bullish on chinese stocks you have relatively new positions in alibaba and baidu, as well. We did talk about ali earlier this week. You were not here for it no, i wasnt dont say anything behind somebodys back that you wouldnt say in person. Millions are watching, so when those comments come out, they do hear it. Yes, they do. Biden was at a fundraiser as part of the platform, and youll see it with trump and others, you want to be tough on china. The news is not reporting that he i dont want to hurt china. So when he issues an executive order, what does china do . They rat it will saber on taiwan but when you get through the noise, if you want to trade noise headlines, thats one thing. But if you look at the fundamentals and what china has to do, thats stimulate the economy. Theyre going to break things apart, they had a great report unbelievable growth, so i think that continues baidu, until they report, is going to be more challenging baidu is at a price that is extremely cheap without the same catalyst as baba coming up, final trades ahead. So keep it right here. Well talk more stocks right after this commercial break. You got this. Lets go. Gobble gobble. Ive seen bigger legs on a turkey rude. Who are you . Im an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this Smart Fitness mirror. Im also mr. Leg day. 1989 anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. I go through a lot of pants. Before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Welcome back to the half breaking news just moments ago right here in new york city. What you are seeing are images of Sam Bankmanfried arriving at the courthouse here innew york city well keep you posted on any new developments, but video just homes ago of that happening. Time now for final trades. Kerry firestone, we start with you. Making it short spending, traveling, highest rates are good thats American Express bill pioneer has resources for the third week in a row. They have done a great job extending resource life. Steve United Health i have no idea where the 50day moving average is on this stock, but i like the fundamentals. I see what you did there. So thats the call out there American Express, pioneer, and whats happening with United Health keep it right here the dow losing some steam. We wish you a nice weekend the exchange with kelly evans starts right now thank you very much, dom. Welcome to the exchange. Im kelly evans. Here is what is ahead this hour. Work for home well debate that and look at whether Companies Calling Workers back to the office could derail this scenario plus, in a tight labor market, typical education enrollment goes down, but this stoc