Transcripts For CNBC Fast 20240703

Ahead this our. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. Our guest trader tonight, Katie Stockton of fair lee strategies. And we start off with the newest milestone for Interest Rates. Yields on tenyear surging part the 4. 6 mark, getting closer to breaking above october 2007. The benchmark rate is up 1. 4 Percentage Points from its april low, massive move. The rapid rise in rates taking a particular toll on a few sectors. Real estate, utilities among the hardest hit. And while stocks closed off their lows of the session, the attempted rally lost some steam so, how worried should stock investors be about these rate moves . We like to play a game i love games. Here on fast money, where i would say, imagine if yesterday i told you this would happen, what would the markets do . If i said to you, guy i love games. That tenyear yields would go above 4. 6 , what would the market do . Nasdaq is probably obl oblit obliterating, russell, small caps are getting whacked. Vix is north of 20. None of those things, and the opposite when it comes to small caps. Which is a good sign. 4 4190ish, got down to 4230 something today and bounced 40 handles, so, maybe close enough for government work. The market was oversold. Im sure katie has views on this, as well. In the shortterm, all very good things. Definitely. With that said, the fact that the tlt really didnt bounce at all, you would have thought yields would have backed up. They didnt do it. And i said this for awhile, yields going higher is not a good thing. Yields will continue to go higher until they dont, and if they start to go lower, its because something probably broke in the equity market. I can come up with a scenario, where yields go down, its bad for the market. And i dont think its particularly good they go higher. Whats your take on the action today . I think theres something to the trajectory of yields. When they accelerate like this, youd expect a much bigger impact on Market Sentiment. So, sentiment has gotten to the place where it is bearish, right . After today, maybe more so. We look at metrics like the vix, like the fear and greed index you and they are showing bearishness, but maybe not the point that we need. Guy and i are looking at the same levels, 4180 to 4195 is support. Its not that far away anymore. And treasury yields, they are poised to confirm a breakout this frizz, so, the level that was cleared last week, it feels like ancient history, its 434. Assuming that breakout is confirmed, the next resistance is 5. 25. It seemed crazy when i first introduced that lefshlgs but at 4. 6, it doesnt seem quite as crazy. We talk about the seas seasonality we talked about it. I feel as if i might be getting drawn in here, because i im starting to get negative. So, when you start to get negative, you have to look at the seasonality again. So, if i feel like im getting drawn in, what is the Retail Community feel like . Theyre getting drawn in, too. And when you look at the last four septembers, those are down. When you look at the last four octobers, those are up. Im holding onto stocks, i sold a bunch of crap stocks you owned crap stocks . I did. I didnt feel like i bought them knowing that i own them, but i definitely over the years have figured out that they were not going to perform well in this market. And you got rid of those. But if you look at the large cap tech names, if theres going to be a rally in the overall market, those names have to rally. So, i stayed long some stuff. They held up very well today, considering what was going on with rates and what held up really, really well, julie, small caps. You are our resident expert there. Yeah. What did you make of that solid Performance Today . 1 on the small cap 600 index. Well, you know, i think its kind of a case right now where if you look at valuations, you know, across market cap, across sectors, you know, the place where people are finding value with still in small caps. And if things are not quite as bad as we had feared at the beginning of the year, these guys should probably be okay. The real question is kind of, what is in what is on Balance Sheets, how much risk do some of the businesses have . And like i always say, you have to be really choosey when you Start Playing around with small cap. But i agree, you know, i think until we get less of this bear steepening, its really, really hard to get enthusiastic about equities. But for us, were still looking at quality and it seems to be the best place to be in this september, thats for sure. Yeah. What happens if oil comes in a little bit . What ha what happens if the dollar comes in a little bit . What happens if the uaw strike ends . I know this could be a wish list like all of these things combined, or . Or some of these things, some of these things start to trickle and you start to get that m mom momentum, it doesnt take a whole heck of a lot to have the market rally from where we are now. Do you think its going to come in i think 100 is probably the nice fat round number. I think the dollar just think about this. If Jerome Powell sees that maybe the market is taking it on the chin, maybe he backs up a little bit. Maybe its not one more. Hes never going to say it, but the market will start to interpret, maybe there isnt one more rate hike, and what happens if they think that . They start running into equities again. Okay. But the problem is that it may not be one more, or it may be one more, but maybe markets not really thoroughly factoring in the idea that rates could stay where they are right now for a very long time. Maybe thats what were learning into. I understand what steve is saying. The pushback would be, the feds a side show now in terms of one more, no more, doesnt matter, theyre staying where theyre staying, i think, and the move in crude oil and the reacceleration of inflation suggests they should, and quite frankly, the rhetoric theyve been pretty steadfast, so, its not them thats to blame. The market has chosen not to listen until recently. I say the damage has been done, because i dont think weve felt the effect at all in terms of 525 points of hiking. Were starting to feel it now. That will factor its way into the market, and yeemds go yield going higher should be a good thing. Its not a good thing now, because its got nothing to cowith the economy. Its got everything to do with supply and demand, and the market is demanding higher yields to buy our debt, rightfully so, by the way, when you look at some of the problems we have here. Our next guest said back in august he thought rates would move to 4. 5, maybe beyond. Lets bring in andy constand. That was a great call by you, and news that the treasury was going to have a much bigger than expected issuance. That hasnt happened, but a lot of the move has happened. How do you expect in to play out . Right. Thanks for having me back, melissa. Since the government announced a significant increase in the amount of longterm Treasury Bonds they plan on issues, shifting from bills to bonds, you know, the s p is down 7 , nasdaq is down 7. 5 , russell is down 11 . The twoyear note which i agree with guy, is, you know, basically fixed, but is up 26 basis points. But really, the big action has been in the tenyear and the 30year, which are up 65 basis points and 71 basis points. And as you said, the supply hasnt really come to market yet, but the supply announcement clearly mattered. So, what were having is a bit of frontrunning of that, where markets price in this additional supply. And so, i think about 75 to possibly 100 of that pricing in for the supply has happened in the bond market, and its possible that when the supply actually does come this quarter that you could push yields a little bit higher, but im thinking that most of this run has occurred, and youve got 10, maybe 15 basis points more of higher yields in the near feature. So, youve covered a lot of your shorts in this position, andy, and thats simply because the riskreward is not there anymore. You say that yields will probably go higher, but at this point, its not worth shorting bonds for that move. Right, right, exactly. I mean, you can choose to be long, short, or flat, if you are a speculative investor or hedge fund investor. And, you know, the choice right now is to have no position, because, you know, i do see a possible, you know, i do think a likely 9 to 15basis point increase in yields, but its come a long, long way, and so, a bounce on weak data or any any sort of weakness even in equities would, you know, support bonds briefly. Though i think the supply means that going long bonds speculatively doesnt make sense, because you are just going to run into that wall of supply. Andy, great to have you on when you originally did and great to follow up now. Well done. So, theres what i think could potentially happen. If yields were to go lower, marketedly lower from here, its probably because something broke and broke meaning the equity market. And youd have this sort of perceived flight to quality in the form of the bond market. I dont think thats particularly healthy, but thats a scenario. Does that make sense to you . Sure, but i think what and that is how things have played out year over year for 40 years, when things get bad, bonds rally, but it usually happens after stocks fall. And i think the the recent rally in bond yields, the rise in bond yields, the selloff in bonds, has not been felt yet by the equity multiple. So, i think the next step before we get to the step youre talking about is for equity multiples to contract a little bit, you know, my sense is, the same sort of move in equities that we have had, when you add on the move to bonds, equities need to catch up a little bit to the downside. My guess is around 5 . You are short equities . I am short equities, yes. Okay. Andy, great to have you. Thank you so much. Pleasure, melissa. Andy constan. Julie, you agree with andy . Yeah, i mean, for the most part, i think that it makes sense, logically, but the one place that i kind of wonder about is, you know, we talk about the wall of worry, but theres also this, you know, wall in the sitting in cash, earning 5 , and i just i worry a little bit on being too bearish, because i do think theres the potential for people who have been really happy earning 5 and looking at returns in the market that are much better than that. And starting to wonder, hey, maybe i need to get back involved. Particularly if theres a nice little correction. Brave people may start stepping in. So, im not sure it will be quite as connected as that, and i do think its probably going to hit, if its going to hit anywhere, its going to be on lower quality for sure. Katie, do you think equities need to go down to sort of match that move higher in yields . I mean, were still recommending being short, being hedged, and yet, we think that the market is potentially even within a couple of weeks of a tradeable low. We are starting to see signs of downside exhaustion, we talked about, in Market Sentiment gauges, market breath readings have gotten deeply oversold. So, these are all creating a backdrop that is more favorable for equities. And we have the support coming into play. There are some countertrend signals from our indicators in both yields and equities. Were supposed to get a signal countering the down move in the s p 500 in the next couple of days. So, were bracing for what we think will be a nice entry point, and yet, we want to see the momentum gauges shift before we feel confident in covering the hedges, and getting more long. Yeah, and it doesnt have to happen, when you say october is usually a positive month for the markets, it doesnt have to happen as of october 1st. So, this could be a twoweek event to katies point, or could be a week event. So i think, if you go into october, november, december, those are good months for the overall market. So, i wouldnt get too bearish. Yeah, the seasonals are very strong in october, november, especially. I think people get ahead of the santa claus rally. December hasnt quite held that same positive seasonality that it used to. And thats a good two to threemonth move that we could position for. The question is, is that going to be it or is it going to yield a lower high, keep us rangebound. Ho ho ho, right . Yeah, to you, too. Gobble gobble . Yeah, that. Turkey day. But thats all good. Happy hump day. Love that. Listen, i understand what everybody is saying here. I totally get you. We might be within a couple weeks of a tradeable low. The question is, you know, what does that look like, that move to the downside, is it a flush . Do we get a vix north of 25, which we havent seen in quite some time. All of those things are in play. Todays action was really encouraging. We traded down to levels, seemingly bounced in the face of yields going higher is a good thing. Well see how long that lasts. And we havent talked about the geniuses, couple hundred miles south of us that could potentially shut down the government. Didnt even think thats priced into this market and thats something to be concerned about. Here is a would you rather. Oh. Ill pose it to steve. I love this game. Did you know . Go ahead. Would you rather, money right now, yielding 5 in bonds, or or entering a new position in the stock market, spy . From here to year end. Entering new position, spy. Without question. Because its almost like buying for a dividend, right . I mean, that could either you have that stat tick right, right. The market should be up dramatically from here and that obliterates that 5 . Okay. She would have been great on lets make a deal like ay mon. I actually do host a game show. All right. Moves in treasury yields got us thinking, what other charts could tell the true tale of the markets. Lets go around the horn. Guy, youve been looking at banks . Kre is the one. I think small and regional banks are a huge tell. They were getting cratered into the spring for obvious reasons. They bounced on the back of Silicon Valley bank, somewhat counter intuitive, but the fed backstopped everything. Had a huge run. Giving a lot of it back. And it feels like were going to round turn. If the regional banks start to roll here, it suggests maybe the company is not as strong as we hope it to be and maybe theres another fly in the it onment. The kre is what to watch. Steve . Triple qs. Seems like were hitting a support level in triple qs, and you have apple, microsoft, nvidia, meta, and amazon, its 40 of the triple qs. If that rallies, then the markets going to be in good shape. Julie . The fed put out this chart talking about excess savings, right . And everyone says, you know, people have such a high levels of excess savings, but what really matters is who is holding the excess savings. And whats really clear is if you are in the top 20 , you still have a lot of excess savings that you can draw from. But if you are kind of below that, youre really starting to dip past where you were before the pandemic started. And so, i think looking at things on a real basis, if adjusted for inflation is important in terms of thinking about Consumer Spending going into the holidayen is. And we saved the professional for last. Katie . So, were looking at the fear and greed index, and it is a gauge of Market Sentiment. Itting a regalts a lot of different measures into one. And in july, it was extremely overbought. Meaning that investors were too gr greedy, it peaked around 82 . Now its at 25 after todays action. And 25 south is an extreme oversold. And again, it has us looking out for that tradeable low. All right. Coming up, micron on the move. Were all over the afterhours action, as results have crossed the wire. The latest numbers next. And pedaling higher. The deal thats sending shares of peloton stretching to new heights after the bell. Well bring you the details when fast money returns. New projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. When you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. Visit indeed. Com hire and get started today. This is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. sfx stone wheel crafting the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . Nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, whawatching live sportsy . Never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Here in the bay, our cars takes and all of our stuff where we want to go. But, our cars cant take us e with unpaid tolls. Vehicles with overdue, unpaid tolls may not be able to renew their registration until outstanding balances are paid. Payment assistance is available. Visit bayareafastrak. Org ase so go pay your unpaid tolls y and keep your wheels on the welcome back to fast money. Weve got an earnings alert on micron. Shares of the chip maker down by just about 4 afterhours on mixed guidance. Cnbcs Kristina Partsinevelos has the details. The call is still going on. Microns ceo started by calling the bottom for memory prices after what he called a very challenging year. The total Addressable Market reached a multiyear low, and thats why we saw revenues for q4 drop 40 year over year. We can say q4 earnings were a beat, but the company is still operating at a loss. Q1 eps guidance came in, i guess, larger than expected, in terms of loss. And then on the call, there were a few things, and thats a few negative points, and thats why we saw the stock drop. Traditional server demand remains lackluster. Its the first yearover year decline since 2016. They are forecasting 2023 pc and smartphone volume decreasing, but going to normalize for 2024, which is really now, its confusing, but its q1 now. And what was alarming was that 2024 cap x only slightly higher than this year. The china ban continues to impact revenue. And when i say impact, its about a 13 hit to total revenues. Free cash flow still going to remain negative for the first half of 2024. Of course, theyre going to bring up the bright spot, which is a. I. And their high bandwidth memory chip, which they believe is powerful enough to help with the a. I. Infrastructures and going to ramp up next year, but is that mow offset all of these points that this company is still facing . And theyre calling 2024 and year of recovery. So, a ramp in 2024 doesnt mean doesnt its not going to be strong in the first half, its going to gradually grow. Going f b going back to what you said before, tote day Addressable Market hit a multiyear look, what does that mean . Thats your total Addressable Market, why would it shrink to a multiyear low this year . This past year theyre going to say that, well, you know memory chips are commoditized in general, it follows the supply and demand chain. They believe perhaps the money has been shifting towards other type of memory products, like the high bandwidth, so, perhaps cap x dollars are going again to the a. I. Build, or maybe just decreasing altogether for some companies, so maybe thats why. But he didnt go into detail as to why its a great question, why tam is down. Perhaps its an analyst question going on now. Not sure. Yeah, because that would really put the pressure on micron to actually transition to that product, which is going to ramp up next year, which is maybe meaningfully add to their guy, what do you think of this . Great having we have this big desk, great not having her in that fish bowl and having her here on the desk. Number two, steve can talk about this. Average selling price declined mid teens. Looking for 4. 5 , thats 30 ish of their business. Thats the bad news. Heres the good news. The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows since december of last year. As long as we sort of stay above 64 1 2, were in good shape. But you remember by any chance may 21st, 2018 . Oh, my god, it rained. I remember it like it was yesterday. I had a sandwich that day at lunch. That was also the day, remember this, micron is a 50 billion market cap company, they announced a 10 billion stock buyback, i said on the show, you know what, this is a great sign, this is showing that theyre no longer commoditized, theyre not a Cyclical Company anymore that was the can i say the term, balls high for quite some time, so as much as i like to think theyve changed, they havent changed at all. Like tennis balls. What do you think of the chart. Higher highhighs, higher lows, you said. Pelled by that. I prefer stocks that are in longterm uptrends, but it doesnt look highly risky to me. Steve . Stock is up 36 year to date. When you compare it to nvidia, it seems like a failure. But when you look at nand and dram, its responsible for 75 of their revenues. If they get into the hbm3 chip, then the sky is the limit for a gee thats usually boom bust for them. China gets out of the way. Why that was thought to be a 20 hit. You like this on a possible 2024 ramp . I do. May not be Strong Enough to support a. I. Machines . I do like micron. I think people are throwing everything out and i do like my r micron here. Kristina, thank you. Thank you. Heres whats coming up next. Will nike swoosh after results tomorrow . The sneaker maker delivering numbers. But can anything turn this stock around . The arch support coming out of the options pits, next. Plus, crude hitting its highest level in more than a year. But can it keep up its energy . The traders are fueling up on that one ahead. Youre watching fast money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times sks square. Were back right after this. In the u. S. We see millions of Cyber Threats each year. That rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. So, the question is. Cyber attack as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. We need to rethink. Next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24 7 builtin security. Chip . At t business. Im hearing different ways for me to screen for colon cancer. Its time to use my voice, ive got a choice, more than one answer. I sat down with my doc. We had a talk. Knew just what to say. I asked for cologuard and did it my way. Cologuard is a oneofa kind way to screen for colon cancer thats effective and noninvasive. Its for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. False positive and negative results may occur. Ask your provider for cologuard. I did it my way welcome back to fast money. Check out shares of pell london spinning higher, announcing a fiveyear proitartnership with lululemon. Look at that pop in peloton. Does that mean it has hope here . Probably has some hope. This is kind of a nice marriage, i think, for both of them, right, because thank goodness lululemon realized that their purchase of mirror isnt really going to pan out the way they hoped and no one wants to buy it, so, that really tells you how weak that product is. Pell loton has much more conten for them, and it makes sense for these two to pair up, where they have a lot of weakness. I dont know if that makes peloton investable, per se, but it does give them a lot of interesting distribution through the lululemon store network and a better brand thats wellaligned with their higher income consumer. Its a good marriage they put up together. Guy . I dont know if im allowed to say his name. Remember jeff mackey back in the day . Never stopped you. You just said it. Ill tell you this. In december 2021, he said peloton and lululemon should do something. Hes nuts, i love him, but hes ahead of his time. This is more pimportant for peloton than it is for lululemon. I dont think its going to be all that accretive to peloton. The question is, is lululemon too expensive in this environment, and i think the answer is question. Well, nike is in need of some arch support. Shares breaking below 90 bucks, down 23 this year. And with earnings due out after the bell tomorrow, how are you lacing up on the name . How does that chart look to you, katie . You know, its a real downdraft, right . And weve seen a series of shortterm breakdowns. Theres risk that we see a longer term breakdown, as well. So, i think we want to avoid these downtrends. Theres a weak tape behind it, as well. Thats not helping. But until you see not just, you know, support discovery, but a momentum shift, i think theres better places to be. Options traders are betting nikes earnings move could have some real sole. Mike khouw has the action. Mike . Nike saw about 1. 6 times its average daily call volume today, and we are seeing an implied move of about 6 . Thats in line with historical average. The most active calls really were the 95 strike calls that expire at the end of this week. Buyers paying 74 cents for those. Speculative bets that we could actually see a bounce postearnings. What do you think . So, you know whats funny, if you look at sketchers, a name that no one likes, everyone has the same look. I watch, get a quick on guy. Sketchers. See . Everyone has that same look when you mention sketchers. Sketchers has outperformed under armor, theyve outperformed nike you know what they have now . A pickle ball shoe. Oh, my stop it. They have a pickle ball shoe. Specifically for pickle ball. Yeah. Nikes challenge, as katie said. And the chart on sketchers, youll think the opposite way. Look at the mirror image of sketchers. Werent you going to play pickle ball hold on a second. I got the slogan. What is it called, sketchers dont do it. Sketchers for pickle ball. When youve entirely given up on life. So mean happens to be true. Thats mean. Mike khouw, our thanks to you. Coming up, crude absolutely crushing it. But can oil keep fueling the big run higher, and what we can ex expect coming up . Helima croft is with us next. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks closing largely flat after a whip saw day. The dow down 300 points at its low, ending off by 70 points. The s p eeking out a gain and the nasdaq up 0. 22 . Take a look at shares of disney, closing below the 80 market for the First Time Since 2014. Meantime, oil spiking higher today, trading above the 94 market for the First Time Since august of last year. How much higher can prices go and what will it mean for the consumer . Cnbc contributor helima croft is with us. The number, the inventory numbers out of cushing was behind the spike today. You just spoke to the Saudi Oil Minister in calgary, so, how firm will the saudis be, do you think, in getting to 100 or going in that direction . I mean, right now, we clearly see momentum to 100 at brent. The big question is, we have an opec meeting next week. The Saudi Oil Minister said, yes, we made the decision to extend our 1 million barrel a day cult through the end of the year, but he said, were going to review that decision every month and we can go either way. It comes against a backdrop with u. S. saudi diplomatic negotiations. The question is, will there be an Energy Component of a potential u. S. saudi deal . I think the Biden Administration would clearly like more saudi barrels on the market. Because, look, there are not a lot of great options out there for this administration to get crude prices down. They are done the big spr release. The question is, are they really going to do more . Were not hearing blockbuster spr releases. Theyve done deals with iran, but those barrels are already in the market. So, its not clear, really, where the administration goes next for additional barrels. I mean, it seems like they really dont have any tools in their tool kit at this pg to ge down in an election year. You know, if you look at big oil here in the United States, i mean, companies are not going to be, you know, operating more rigs to get oil prices i mean, they are run differently these days, they are committed to returning capital to shareholders, theyre not committing as much as their Free Cash Flow to new exploration, theyre not operating as many rigs compared to a year ago. That hope also seems to be to be gone, to increase the supply from here. Again, thats why all eyes are really on saudi arabia. And the rest of opec. I mean, what countries fit on Spare Capacity that they can deploy quickly . Its countries like saudi arabia. So, again, i would say, pay close attention to what is happening in terms of the br broader diplomatic discussions with riyadh. A number of senior u. S. Officials have been in saudi arabia over the past couple mo months. Again, its a deal thats going to encompass security, nuclear, saudi recognition of israel, potentially, but obviously this oil angle is part of the negotiations, because, again, the administration doesnt have a lot of good options. They would like to get this iraqi pipeline back up online thats been down for months. Theres a question, could you get venezuelan barrels on the market, if they do sanctions release, but that is not likely to come until next year. So, the immediate picture does not look spectacular in terms of additional barrels. Has the u. S. Replenished the spr or is that something we dont know until after the fact . Do we know if they replenished . You talked about their tool box, but do we know if they have reflenished already . So, the spr is down nearly half from 2020 levels. Now, in the summer, the start of the summer, they talked about being in buyback mode. There were indications of some initial buybacks, but then they paused buybacks so, the question is, will the administration potentially do some more smaller scale spr releases . That could be politically challenging, but again, it all goes down to what your options sweep. Now, i think they would like to get this grand bargain with saudi arabia, get the saudis to start tapering down that cut. And the saw dudi oil minister s they could go either way with that cut. The emphasis will be appealing to riyadh, but they have to think about fallback options. I dont think an spr release, a smaller one, is not off the table, but not a preferred option. And a bigger challenge for the administration is, the product shortages. Look at the diesel inventory. Those are very low. And the russians last week announced an export ban on some products. So, look for challenges for the administration in a tight Product Market as we head into winter, as well. The cure for Higher Oil Prices is Higher Oil Prices. Theres eventually demand destruction. Does that level come down in an Economic Situation that we have now, where consumers are feeling more strapped, they are faced with inflation in other places, Interest Rates are higher. How does that get adjusted . One of the big challenges is, you would think, at this price, it would be uneconomic for refineries to run these barrels. But when we look at the product short falls, look at the situation for diesel. For a refinery, it is economic to still run those barrels. So, given the issues that were seeing in terms of tight Product Market, theres no indication yet that at this price point were going to see demand destruction. So, that is a really big challenge for the administration, as we head into winter. Are we going to see potential product shortages, particularly in places like the east coast of the United States . Helima, thank you. Helima croft of rbc. Guy . Shes unbelievable in the space. Were lucky we have her, we have paul sankey come on to talk energy. We are fortunate to have them both. Weve been steadfast in our belief that Energy Stocks will continue to go higher. Exxon, multiyear high today, if not an alltime high. Oih bumping against highs, con coe phillips, marathon, psx all do well. Crude doesnt have to go anywhere and it will go higher. Are you find ing confident i oil, julie . It really looks like theres a clear floor under pricing right now, and its hard to really see how saudi arabia, with all of its pricing power, that it has struggled to achieve, is going to do anything to really alleviate that. Theyre getting exactly what they want. And i think, you know, Oil Producers here in the u. S. Are very happy, you know, to get paid more and do less, i mean, thats like my work motto, you know. I applaud them. Katie, where is the best chart in oil snrj. Yeah, i mean, the integrated oil plays have been so strong, the relative strength is definitely behind them, and we are seeing some breakouts in the european players. Really intriguing from a momentum perspective. And with this last push higher, we do have some resistance levels being taken out. So, for crude oil, wti, 94 is a key level for it. Above that, the secondary resistance is above 100 you so thats about 101. And, you know, you cant rule it out, because you have the positive intermediate momentum, and there are no signals except for very shortterm ones. Coming up, a major milestone for marijuana, as the Senate Approves what could be landmark legislation. Jane wells is live from a pot shop. Jane . Melissa, 90 of americans almost support Legal Marijuana in one form or another, according to pugh research. Its taken the federal government to agree with that, but up next, a huge step forward, and could you maybe use one of these in here . Thats when we come back. This is Spring Semester at fairfieldsuisun unified. They switched to google tools for education because theres never been a reported Ransomware Attack on a chromebook. Now theyre focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. welcome back to fast money. Cannabis legislation clearing a major hurdle today. A Senate Committee approving a bill allowing marijuanarelated companies to do business at actual banks. Cnbcs jane wells has the latest. Jane . Hey, melissa. Up until now, they would have had to pay a lot higher rates, but this is the rise dispensary in pasadena, where most transactions are in cash, and businesses that have operated legally for years still cannot get a bank account at a federallyregulated bank. But today, finally, the Senate Banking Committee Approved a measure to let operations in states where cannabis is legal to get Bank Accounts at say, a chase, a b of a, and they cant be denied service just because they sell pot. Its going to be a very large deal, because it will be the first piece of federal legislation that actually recognizes that there is a 35 billion industry in the United States that services cannabis to our consumers. We really think its a big deal for the business, and for the stock, because this kind of thing can lead to more Institutional Ownership in the company. Okay, its not a done deal. It still has to go to the full vote in the senate. And the full senate. But the sponsor of todays bill says theres still another huge challenge. The i. R. S. , which will not allow these businesses to make normal dedu deductions. Its really absurd that cannabis businesses cannot deduct their expenses. So, they are required by law to pay taxes on their Gross Revenue rather than their net revenue. And that puts a lot of them in the red sometimes. By the way, this industry is not immune to inflation, guys. The company that owns this dispensary says demand is up, but a lot of buyers are trading down. Melissa . Yeah, and im sure trading down to the illicit market, which doesnt have nearly as many taxes and fees associated with the transactions. Jane, it is great to have you. Guy, i have to tell you, was so excited to see you in our rundown today. I jane. Am i allowed did we let go of the guest . No. You talk about mount rush more. Can you be somebody thats above mount rush more . Wow. Because if there is, thats jane wells. I mean i dig jane wells. Shes a legend. She is forget about cnbc. No. Shes television royalty. Broadcasting royalty. Look at her. Perfect. Thank you, everyone. Thank you, everyone. So it goes without paying, jane, its great to see you. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Jane wells, coming to us from a pot shop. Of course she is. So, we actually we talked to boris jordan yesterday of curaleaf and i asked him about consumers and demand and inflation, et cetera, and he said when rates are coming down, well expect to see the consumer to come back. Rates arent going to go down for a long time. Not only that, but the illegal market is what youre talking about, and not you know, politically, right now, no one goes to jail for the illegal market, so, theres really that headwind that is going to persist, and not only that, but theres a long way to go. The biggest thing is what the dea does with the hhs recommendation to reschedule. Yeah, yeah. How do these stocks theyve had massive runs. Listen, you look at basing phases, and we always say, wait for the breakout. Well, theyve broken out. Theyve cleared their 200day moving averages, they cleared resistance. Still arguably in a downtrend, but they actually hold a lot of promise. So, for those looking for value in the space, theyre showing some shifts in momentum that i think are promising. Coming up, Katie Stockton here will go off the charts, grab a paper and pencil, so, you are going to want to take notes where she is seeing bright spots in the market. The trades are next. Fast money is back in two. This is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. Cmon, were right there. Cmon baby. For everyone its the only we need. Go, go, go, go ah touchdown baby touchdown are your neighbors watching the same game . Yeah, my 5g Home Internet delays the game a bit. But you get used to it. Try these. Theyre noise cancelling earmuffs. I stole them from an airport. Its always something with you, man. Great solid greek salad . Exactly dont delay the game with verizon or tmobile 5g Home Internet. Catch it on the xfinity 10g network. Welcome back to fast money. It is shaping up to be the nasdaqs worst month of the year, but Growth Stocks may be hitting key levels were going to go off the charts with sky tee here. So, whats the case here for the growthier areas . We tend to see leadership from growth in stronger tapes, so, if we are talking about the corrective phase ma suring, even if just for the next two, three months, we want to rotate back into those growthier areas, the areas that exhibit leadership. One of the keys is that breath has really contracted, as usual, during the corrective phase. The advance decline line has now pulled right back into some key support, and what that would suggest is that we do see breath improve, participation expand coming out of this corrective phase. And with that, we can revisit the areas of the market, like, say, an equal weighed s p 500 benchmark, small cap benchmarks, which also tend to be more growthy at times, and find our performance there in the shortterm so, we look at etfs like rsp, being very oversold, near some key longterm support. We dont want all of our charts to look like that, because it is a longterm range, but within that range, we have an intriguing overtold potential entry point. I think we wait for the momentum uptick, but were getting pretty close to that. What we really like to see, of course, are those longterm uptrends, and with that, we have xlk, great example the it was a source of outperformance, largely driven by the megacaps. I think you can go farther down the market cap spectrum within technology to find outperformance, to find leadership when the market resumes, hopefully resumes its cyclical bull trend. So, xlk is fair game but you can look at Something Like the Cloud Computing etf, and that has an oversold rating following what to me looks like a longterm turnaround that holds some promise there so, youre seeing these intermediate oversold indications, after constructive developments from earlier this year and well be on the search for bay to coming out of this corrective phase another area really beaten up recently, but had leadership before was the Home Builders so, if you look at itb, same idea you have this oversold reading, returning within the context, in this kashgs of a longterm uptrend, so, getting close, as well do you like these of these areas yourself, julie . Yeah, i think theres definitely spots in technology that are pretty compelling i think for us, its more so on the Software Names that are a actually incorporating a. I. And have been for decades, because it really has existed for decades. Thats the focus for now Home Builders, i think, are interesting. Some of them are particularly well positioned, and they typically the ones that we like have low leverage and assetlight Balance Sheets those are things like dream Finders Homes would be interesting. Grasso . Well, i have to go with xlk i have to stay consistent with the triple qs. Thats where youre gouge to find the value and youre going to get the most well, you were looking for beta, i was looking for alpha, so, we can meet up there. Its all greek to me. See what i did there see what i did there, mel . Come on. That was funny, right . Xlk is interesting looks like the smh chart, if you had them both sidebyside a huge top back in december of 2021, big selloff, traded back to those levels. Seemingly failed if i look at the xlk, i actually would rather buy it on a breakout through that 175 level than to play here. I understand what katie is saying, but youre basically long apple, microsoft, and a handful of others. Feels like apple is in no mans land here to me. Is it apple has support, basically, in line. It is not showing any buy signals or indications yet, but these corrective phases tend to unfold in abc fashion. I think were in the c wave for apple, which exhibited leadership on the downside, and i do think it comes back to it on the upside. Whats the best chart of the big cap tech im actually most compelled right now, previously was alphabet and amazon, but they are in pullback mode. Now that weve seen a pullback from microsoft, thats the one thats showing the first signs of downside exhaustion from a shorter term perspective, but with a broader bullish context, microsoft coming up, final trades. when the day that lies ahead of me seems impossible to face a lovely day lovely day lovely day lovely day a bank that knows your business grows your business. Bmo. In the u. S. We see millions of Cyber Threats each year. A bank that knows your business grows your business. That rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. So, the question is. Cyber attack as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. We need to rethink. Next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24 7 builtin security. Chip . At t business. Time for the final trade julie . Theres a. I. Hype and a. I. Reality. I like the bio Simulation Software Companies Like certara. Theyve been using a. I. For a long time. Katie ill go with that Cloud Computing etf or clou. Just a basing phase and pullback within it. Great to have you of course steve shoutout to dean harris from syracuse university, watching every night. Westrock i think limited downside, tremendous upside from here. He must be bored if he does that is he a dean or dean. First name dean . Sketchers im size 11, by the way. Psx. I think its breaking out to the upside thank you for watching fast money. Well see you back here tomorrow at 5 00. Cr thim, mad moneywi j amer starts right now. Watching money. In the meantime, mad money with jim cramer starts now my mission is simple, to make you money im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. There is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica other people make friends. Im just trying to save you a little money my job is not just to educate, but to put this into context so call me at 1800743cnbc tweet me jimcramer. Sometimes the market makes