Makes the company so far resilient to higher rates. Dom chu has the numbers. To your point, kelly, if you look at the s p 500, thats down roughly 54 to 5, does represent session lows at this point even at the highs of the day, only down about three points so it has been negative. Specifically in tech and communication, thats been driving the down side. 245 points on the down side. For those listening on sirius xm, its 4133 at those leaves do you 2 , 12,555 for the nasdaq each of these major indices is below the longer trend 200day moving average. Another place to keep a close eye on, look at the semiconductor etf again, the chip makers is below the 200day moving average, so something to keep an eye on as well for some of the stocks driving the action, of course, earnings from alphabet, even microsoft sharply up day yet is down about 3. 5 today. And meta platforms, weaker on the heels, and all eyes on amazon this afternoon, given what we have seen, with earns that could be something to warrick at well if this isnt something weird, so much weve been talking about, the notion that bonds and stocks have been selling off at the same time, the death of the 60 40 portfolio, on a day weve hit the session low, we have hit session highs in the bond market, treasuries specifically. It almost seems fundamental that people would be taking risk out of the stock market and buying Treasury Bonds on the heels of it it hasnt been happening recently that could be something to watch. Even as it ticks down again. Lets get to the strong Third Quarter number thats the stronge pace since 2021, the Third Quarter. We also learned that bigticket items surged job his claims remain near historic lows. Joining me is blerina from rowe price is with us. And steve is also with us. You can look at this report and see some stuff that might create weakness in the current quarter, the fourth quarter. Inventories were a big contribution to the final number thats probable going to come off a little bit this quarter. Spending was another part of it. Then you have to step back and say, okay, for a year or two, weve been misforecasting, badly forecasting the consumer and getting it wrong and wrong and wrong. The question becomes now, will the consumer finally, given the headwinds, give it up . I guess i have my doubts the economists have been wrong for a very long time we really dont know what the level of savings is. I remember thinking, kelly, a year ago people were on this show saying consumers have no more savings they sure seem to be spending. I think you have some Interest Income accruing, finally real wage gains out there i see it stepping down, but i dont see it going to zero, and i think it can handle some of the he headwinds. Lorelorena, i feel like you l agree. What that does mean for the fed here by the way, i think what is supporting the consumer is the labor market aggregate incomes are strong and also improving then it seems almost contradictory that the fed would lean against its Forward Guidance and hike one more time this year. I think this has a lot to do with what is happening in treasury yields, especially in the long end of the curve. Were seeing yields increase, even though the probability of hikes has declined i think for the fed, there seems to be some equivalent, where maybe the markets and the Financial Condition tightening could be doing the job for them, so it does not necessitate another hike so, what happens then as weve seen, if yields dont come down, do you think the fed would react by tightening . I think its very key that the increasing yields we have seen so far is sustainable i think this is the key. We dont necessarily the fed doesnt necessarily need to see further yield increases from here, but any pullback in yields, a meaningful that brings us back to august levels i think would be an indication they need to deliver that extra hike if the economy remains as resilient as we have seen. At this point, i have no reason, looking at the data, to believe that the labor market is going to crack any time soon. Steve, what were you going to say to that . Nominal yields on the ten are 5 i dont think that continues growth is 5 knoll nominal yields are 5 . That means nominal growth is a bit higher, then, maybe 8 its not to be in a world of higher rates i think the fed may step back and say its not entirely clear its unwarranted so, i think things do step down here, but its not a crazy place to be right now with 5 yields on this. Blerina i think another element we having discussed is the lags of tightening and higher yields playing out in the real economic the key is the duration extension both for households and for firms. A large portion of u. S. Households and firms locked in lower Interest Rates before the fed started hiking that means, of course, the increases in rates that we have seen so far, which are substantial are going to bite, but this is going to happen with a longer life. I think the fed here is a risk manager, and what theyre trying to do is, saying, okay, well give the economy some more time for this long lag to play out, but were not precluding the possibility that, if this resilience continues in 2024, they can deliver higherlower cu resume hiking. Steve, i wonder if this discussion is too backwardslooking and relying to which on the data strength from the past two quarters. The forwardlooking momentum here, it just doesnt seem week as encouraging yeah, i think people are really reluctant to buy into a positive story, given the headwinds and the kind of reflection, which is backwardlooking forecasting that people do, but it certainly seems like, if you look back at the forecast, its been wrong for a long time, kelly i dont know when that if you give it up and suddenly youre, like, okay, suddenly im optimistic if thats the last straw, but i think the earnings numbers have kind of held in there, given certainly the surge in prices, and like blerina said, you have the wage gauge. I believe households are net lenders to the economy, they are not net borrowers. I was looking here thats really interesting. Let me get my glasses on. I apologize here, but i have august personal Interest Income is up 140 billion, at an annual rate compared to the yearago period im just wonder, maybe all the seniors collecting the coupons now are booking those cruises, and maybe you cant get a room on the cruise right now . Also thinking about the irony its u. S. Households receiving the largess from the government that seem to be threatened the whole Balance Sheet story here is key. We spent a decade deleveraging to steves point, net assets of households, relative to their liabilities are at historical highs. The Balance Sheet looks healthy. We have a demographic effect where baby boomers have a ton of savings, and they dont have to pay mortgages at 8 Interest Rates, and were seeing that show up in resilience in both goods spending, as well as services both components have been stronger than most people expected for this year steve just real quick, i wonder, kelly, rather than spending time to figure out why things will be bad, maybe we should be spending time figuring out why things havent been as bad as we thought they would be. I think it discussion was unpacking a lot of that. Agreed. Well leave it there for now. Thank you both lets turn to markets some stock sector etfs can help investors avoid singlestock blowups. Mark, good to see you again. What kind of mood are you in these days well, cautious at best. Days like today dont help much. Youre seeing what the market is doing. Reports really arent that bad. Were find ago wrinkle or two of what we dont like about them, and then trashing some of the americas best companies thats a bit of an overreaction, but that could be a turning point. I just dont think it will be an easy ride to get there. Everyone set, you know, the react is so undeserved im not sure it is look at microsoft, right numbers helped by enovation and their shares were up on a pretty ugly today take google to the woodshed, i dont care, they need to keep up. You make a good point googles earns, the ad revenue, there was nothing wrong with that it was the growth rate in cloud. Thats my point, people are looking for problems where they may or may not exist i think the valuations got written up a bit too high. Youre pointing out microsoft. They 345i be the cream of the crop here in that space, but were going to look to see amazons numbers you have to lit really look at beets, but youre going the opposite way no, buy the sector if youre not exactly sure where each blowup will be. In tech, its okay. Ill tell you why. Who was on your air in the past 48 hours saying microsoft would have a great earnings number and bounce up in alphabet, which was going to have questionable earnings and a big drop down its almost impossible to time these quarterlyearnings reports. For the average investor to try to do that is extremely difficult. For insiders, its also very difficult. In a turbulent market, and this feels more like a bear market, i would rather by broadly diversified. In a bull market, we all look like heroes when we pick the winners. In a bear market, i have to be more defensive, protect client capital, and then strike hard when theres the all clear. I also just wanting to explain why financials here, where if youre feeling bearish, i get the valuation case, but are we so sure theyre cheap enough well, i really think it depends on what financial youre looking for, and the xlf, actually, large, highquality best of the best Berkshire Hathaway is actually in there. Jpmorgan, visa, mastercard nonbanks. You cant avoid financials, so we look for quality, broad diversification. You want to stay out of the community and regional banks, that will struggle thats why we migrate to the largecap etf sector. Last word, you would steer them toward Investment Grade with a yield of 6 or higher why . If you can take the volatility out of a port follow again, it depends on the investor but you could consider treasuries, but across the board, investmentgrade corporates with a low risk of default and intermediate duration can round out these wild swings. Interestingly enough, after the fed rate hike, the threeyear average return is only a percentage point or two behind the average return so you can get capital gains, plus a 6 interest rate, plus or minus, i think most investors would be well served to consider that in that area. Mark avalon, thank you for your time today. Good to be here coming up, our tripleheader executive Exchange First up, the ceo of Raymond James joins us to recap the quarter and give us his read on the health of the banks. Eqt surprising the street with a profit in q3. Ceo toby wright weighs in on that and entire state realty trusts ceo has a pulse check. Were looking forward to that. The s p is down 1 right now. The nasdaq the worst performer the tenyear yield drifting back up were back after this. Businesses need 5g solutions today. Thats why they choose tmobile for business. Mlb partners with tmobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. 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Great to see you, kelly we were driven by or Wealth Management businesses and the divert fitted businesses this is the third Consecutive Year in our year just ended so, its really a testament for the model, the longterm view that the firm has always keeping flexible. We have double the amount of capital to be well capitalized, a lot of liquidity we even look at these times that like ad ahead to be more challenging, looking at always opportunity opportunities ed models produce those results. We spoke with stifel yesterday, which also had a nice quarter. Well, you know, i think the recruiting success on the platforms is weve had just steady across our independent employee and our platforms for strong recruiting. Weve had it send of forever its or growth store story most importantly is, since even here and well before me. Having a model where advisers are free to leave. But they choose to stay, because they feel we have a high support environment, that we put clients first, and our investment and technology that we believe on the wealth platform for advisers, we have the leading technology as advisers, come and kick the tires, they tell us that from the other firms. We know its been a tough period there lately theres probably a lot of Different Levels you can pull that maybe youve been through, but maybe your more Junior Team Members have never been through that. If youve been around long enough, youve got through these cycles this is typical some conditions start to change. Sellers usually are much slower to react he see that in the markets even for us, as we look at opportunities when we can lock in debt at low single digits, and its up significantly if we want to finance something, it changes the return on investment until prices adjustment a little bit, if this is the reality in the miss term to longer term, which arent record rates, but people have been used to free capital for a while there. Once people settle in on both sides then youll see activity pick up. The question is when, and thats what we cant answer everybody talks about groan shoots, and we did some he see in increased activity. Theres some activity, but certainly not the levels we would expect what would you see when youre thinking through how to be nimble and opportunistic, looking at the period, know there will be some opportunities as you hinted at before, just walk us through what that means across the rank and file and what that could look like. I think to think long term. During the mini banks crisis in march last year, a lot of people said rates arent going to up, and they locked in in panic. That put them in a precarious position well make money in either environment. So keeping flexible, thinking long term, well, just ride it out. Economic reality comes back. Think thats why through all these cycling, this year we had over 22 return on a nontangible equity, and even in 09, our worth year, we have a 7. 9 r. O. E. , and taking that longterm view, the opportunities come back. You tell people weve been through tough times before the markets will come back thanks in there, just see if you can help them, and theyll remember that. Real quickly, then, would you be looking at any acquisition in a time when weve seen a flurry of activity . Were always open for that. They have to be a cultural fit strategy ecly they have to mac sense. We have to integrate them. We believe they were to be part of the Raymond James family. And then they have to be at the right price. I think there are more opportunities. Im not sure the price adjustments are all there from our side, but sure, were always ready. We have the capital. Its just all those factors have to line up. Its interesting, you think theyre not cheap enough yet, if im reading between the lines. Yeah, i think if you look at where Interest Rates are happening, youll have a midterm squeeze on margins who knows when the fed is done it just values that cash asset differently on, you know, somebodys Balance Sheet, just like its had an impact on financial stocks if you believe thats here to say, thats the value. Honestly, when rates were zero, our industry overearned, and when rates go up, you have to say, okay, long term, whats a reasonable thread, and whats the value to us long term . You have to wait until all those factors align, theyre a good fit, and we can offer strategic advantages to our technology. Well be watching and waiting, in the meantime, paul, its great to have you here, especially on a day when the market is stretch like this. Thank you for your time. Thank you, kelly. Paul reilly, ceo of Raymond James. As we head to break, take a look at the sectors, as real estate is the top sector of ohm three in the green today its up 2 consumer discretionary, Tech Communications services all remain laggard the chip makers meta and our parent company, comcast, are each weighing on those group the exchange is back, after this when the day that lies ahead of me seems impossible to face a lovely day lovely day lovely day lovely day a bank that knows your business grows your business. Bmo. That first time you take a step back. I made that. With your very own online store. I sold that. And you can manage it all in one place. I built this. And it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. Godaddy. 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It would have created a company that rivals samsung, the leader in the slash memory space. Invisalign is having its worse day. Saying with Mortgage Rates tripling, that means no money for teeth otr terriers over to tyler for a cnbc news update. Merrick garland released a statement, saying several federal agencies are helping in the search for the suspected mass shooter garland said theyre all on the ground in maine now. A manhunt is still underway for a 40yearold individual named robert card, after police say he killed 18 people, and injured more Governor Desantis said hiss sending drones, ammunition and more to israel thats his latest effort to back israel, as he competes in the 2024 republican primary. President Vladimir Putin overassignment a simulation that came hours after parliament voted to rescind the countrys ratification much a Global Nuclear test ban state media shows putin directing the exercise on a video call tyler, thanks. Ill see you shortly. Coming up, toby rice joins us whats driving the rulests the exchange is back after this ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. To duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built n engine like google, but its pi and doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. And theres no catch, its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Welcome back to the exchange. Shares of eqt a bit flat, appeared the company had a surprise profit and revenue beat while nat gas prices collapsed in the first half of this year amid record production, eqt says high sales volume offset lower prices in the Third Quarter. They also finalized some acquisitions to increase future output joining me is toby rice, the president and ceo of ewt good to see you again. Thanks for having me we seeing energy its not too hard to understand whye sites desired and this consolidation has been a company for us thats before synergies. Thats make it more reliable for these assets, were going to integrate their Carbon Footprint into our Net Zero Program here in eqt, and zero out these emissions. If im not manage taken, were not talking about the mature Industry Market share, but could we be headed in that direction what we are seeing is, we are seeing scale now actually start to create differentiating opportunities for energy producers. You know, this quarter was a great example of eqt leverages an showcasing the power of our platform or investmentagreed Balance Sheets all of these are creating opport opportunities. Our inventory and lowcost structure helps to make that happen our Balance Sheet supports these deals and lets them happen as a result, were creating some really great opportunities where not only are our investors going to get access to premium markets in the southeast part of the United States, consumers in the southeastern part of the United States are going to get more secure, reliable supply, which is going to be even more important in this world that were in today would you welcome if ch chesapeake and certainly that would help the story here at eqt. We want to be known as americas best natural gas producer. When were doing consolidation, we want to look at assets that make us a better business. Sure, were looking to check the box on the financial accretion, thats par for the course. And we certainly have a differentiated position on that part as you said, theres also some rewards to size could you weigh in a bit if theres anything weve learned, its hard to forecast natural gas price what do you think . It seems like every week we see another event around the world that throwing the Energy Markets into turmoil in 22 we were talking about the russia situation with ukraine. A couple weeks ago talking about an lng strike in australia now we have this conflict in the middle east. One of the things thats touted on the hill is this story line that, you know, we complain a lot about the regulations and the need to get more permit reform in place, so we can get more infrastructure built and before supply this world we hear people say, well, it cant be that tough, because the American Energy producer is producing at record levels of energy while that is true, the big question remains is that enough you look at the rampant inflation, rising eamortization for the first time in 20 years, Global Energy poverty has increased. Clearly the United States needs to do more unfortunately until we get there, well be living in an energy short world that will lead to a lot of roll tilt toby, thank you for your time today. Thank you, kell,. Still to come, the techheavy pass gab the underperformer day, as investors digest the results from google, meta, even microsoft this week with amazon after the bell today, mike santoli tells you if he expects more pain ahead or not. Thats next. Im hearing different ways for me to screen for colon cancer. Its time to use my voice, ive got a choice, more than one answer. I sat down with my doc. We had a talk. Knew just what to say. I asked for cologuard and did it my way. Cologuard is a oneofa kind way to screen for colon cancer thats effective and noninvasive. Its for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. False positive and negative results may occur. Ask your provider for cologuard. I did it my way the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Welcome back to the exchange. Dont look now, but the tech trade if you dont know this, by the way, its showing a few cracks, shall we say the nasdaq, smh and apple all below 200day moving averages. Whats the significance . Mike santoli is here on set with me to discuss. Technicals, you know, okay, so they dictate maybe nearterm trading ranges and weakness, but the mere fact we were below it in march. Its really more descriptive of the trend because the 200day average is still sloping up, the s p average was about flat, so i dont think its really a light switch that turns on and off, but it shows you demand is flagging, but the nasdaq was way above, so extremely stretched beyond that trendline. To me its corrected back. To me, the reactions to the numbers just shows you to what degree people have excess faith that they were impervious to a lot that was going on. Metas numbers were absolutely stellar for the last quarter, a bit of a whisper, and all of a sudden its game over. However, theyre only going back to prices at one, two, three months ago. I was pointing out, what about microsoft . There was a nice reaction to a stock that outperformed yesterday, and a source saying dont check today, because its already back below where it was. Microsoft seems to be the most benefit of the doubt, and it seems like theyve got it figured out, and of course, the a. I. Exposure, too but, in general, i think what the market is doing is giving credence to the catch down hypothesis theyre kind of retracing lower. However, if you look over three years, the nasdaq 100 and equalweighted s p are in the exact same spot. Crazy crazy. So you traded this for massive underperformance this year e. And kind of at the same place. In terms of the macro message, what what do you think its saying here the macromessage is the economy cant handle what rates are doing. Its minus the fact that rates are sold at levels that they have. Thats exactly right. It could be wrong. Obviously sometimes the market kind of overshoots in terms of pricing, but theres no i was saying yesterday, whirlpool not great guidance, it got crushed today. It god crushed from seven times earnings, and its down double digits. Wow i like to think a lot is priced in, saying these are in the cross hairs of whatever happens. Airlines are trading at exactly the cheap multiples where youre not supposed to buy them so, whats the next thing to watch here maybe its just incoming data, who knows . Its definitely the incoming data the fact were getting oversold, it should make a stand before too long, yiel yields have to c i think below 4. 8 on the tenyear would help a lot. If the fed next week says we hear you, that could give a jolt. Thank you, as always, mike. Next, heres someone in the green. The shares are up 44 from the 52week low. Theres some consumer strength ceo tony malkin explains next. Different story for harleydavidson. Shares are down 10 despite an earnings beat, as shipments fell from the prior year. Middle on the call said consumers are sitting on the sidelines for big distressary purchases. Well be right back. Is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to help keep our Online Platform safe from cyberthreats . Absolutely. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that, too. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Fisher Investments its easy to think that all Money Managers are pretty much the same, but at Fisher Investments were clearly different. other money manager different how . You sell High Commission investment products, right . Fisher Investments nope. Fisher avoids them. other money manager well, you must earn commissions on trades. Fisher Investments never at fisher. other money manager ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. Fisher Investments no. We structure our fees so we do better when our clients do better. That might be why most of our clients come from other Money Managers. At Fisher Investments, were clearly different. Municipal bonds dont usually get the Media Coverage the stock market does. In fact, most people dont find them all that exciting. But, if youre looking for the potential for consistent income thats federally taxfree, now is an excellent time to consider Municipal Bonds from hennion walsh. If you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 18002173217. Well send you our exclusive bond guide, free. With details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. Hennion walsh has specialized in fixed income and Growth Solutions for 30 years, and offers highquality Municipal Bonds from across the country. They provide the potential for regular income. Are federally taxfree. And have historically low risk. Call today to request your free bond guide. 18002173217. Thats 18002173217. Is real estate resilient shares of empire trust is up 5 . Joins us now for an exclusive the Exchange Interview is the chairman appeared ceo, Anthony Malkin welcome back. Good to see you. Its good to have a positive story here i just hope we dont look back and say, we didnt see whatever is coming. We raised our fullyear guidance its the ninth consecutive quarter with positive marks, the seventh positive, with the lease rate absorption. People want our produces, were at the top of our tier, and we have a good story to tell, and the tenants want it. What are we len about the state of new york city i think the mayor made comments about were back to prepandemic levels of Office Workers i dont want so say yours is more low cost, but average has filled things back up . First of all, were modernized Energy Official with indoor environmental quality, futureready real estate number two, best Balance Sheet, lowest leverage of all the new York City Office reifs putting that altogether, were a prizing tier, which is the deepest segment of the market. Theres a lot of demand. And were a flight to quality in that were really outpacing the market with our performance. So i guess the question is real estate is taking a broader hit, because its competing for capital. Obviously theres concerns about the banks exposure. Are there idiosyncrasies that can help act as a cushion or maybe an offset to some of the headwinds . I think theres two pieces. We have four drivers office, destination attraction, and we traded out of our exchanges to manhattan residential. The second thing is, we positioned or Balance Sheet to always be ready for what might go wrong we have no floating rate debt. Best Balance Sheet of all of our peers, and we locked in longterm debt from our perspective, were in a position to go forward and take advantage of opportunities you also signed some leases with linkedin, starbucks, and some commercial activity as well what are the next kind of chess moves to watch well, i think first, first of all, runways so we can take advantage of opportunities by that, i mean acquisitions number two, we want to continue to emphasize or difference in that we can cooperate and help with our tenants operations and choices. Number one, our locations are fantastic. Remember, which is the deepest part of the market we really didnt lever up. So were in a good spot. Thats shown keep in mind, thats starbucks thats an office lease, not another retail lease, and linkedin is an office lease. Were happy to have a positive story to tell, anthony. Thanks for joining us. We really appreciate it. Thank you that does it for the exchange. For more analysis on markets and the economy, sign up for my newsletter next on power lunch, Sam Bankmanfried taking the stand at his own trial well have the lesatt and what can be behind that decision. Power lunch starts on the other side of this break to get to this milestone. The New York Stock Exchange is a symbol of what america is all about the potential of an american dream. It is day one. A lot of work has happened to lead to this historic moment. The only way you can move a Society Forward is a true expression of freedom. good afternoon, everybody. Alongside kellie y evans, im tr mathisen well preview whats to come and break down what it all means, especially in tech plus, Sam Bankmanfried he with the good hair is set to take the stand in his own dividends. Well get the latest from the trial and our legal expert will weigh . I heard he got a haircut, too, but well see the nasdaq losing the most today. Were off session lows, as we check on the s p 500, and the dow down about 0. 5 . Concerns about big tech spending well have mor