You about how Retail Investors are feeling right now. Well explain. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight steve grasso, karen finer man, dan nathan, and guy adami. The s p rising 0. 6 . The nasdaq up 0. 4 . Well get to that in a minute, but first, new signs that the Retail Sector is ripe for some dealmaking. Shares of nordstrom popping more than 9 after reporting of its founding family is looking to take the company private. This news coming after similar attempts six years ago was ultimately unsuccessful, but it is far from the only deal percolating in this consumer space. Macys saying its agreed to open its books to potential acquirers. It and kohls have attracted activist interest in weeks. And theres tapestrys deal for capri, which is expected to close later this year. And shares of American Apparel giant Gildan Activewear popped after the board said it has several potential buyers for the company. Is this just the start of a coming wave of m a activity . T karen . Its a ton of activity. Pa chin coe, which is a game probably before your time, but guy played it a lot. Damn straight i did. So, the nordstrom, to me, is sort of the most interesting and actually the least likely. Sort of the idea of a family raising debt to buy out the company and i think at one time maybe there was a real estate aspect of it. So, many of those pieces arent in vogue anymore, but the cost of capital has gone up tremendously. And you dont want to be an indebted retailer trying to compete in this world. So, that one is a little harder to fathom. I could see maybe a merger with another company, that may be, thats in the same business, similar in the macys situation, which it is interesting to me how this is evolving. I do think that heres a chance now for brigade to show theyre serious, and they do really have financing, and theyve said, if you can show us your books and we, you know, we think theres more value there, so we could see a deal worth more than 24, which is their current bid its not a bid, this is our level, its not a formal bid. So, thats sort of interesting. The gildan story is a really odd one, where the ceo was thrown out last year for not doing enough, not really being a ceo, apparently. That is sort of interesting, because i believe thats a decent chance it gets sold. This whole space was so cheap. So, thats not surprising that now theres interest. Thats thats exactly right. The whole space has been cheap. And i think what this tells you is, the market is saying, maybe its a bit of an allclear sign, were through covid, the recession that everybodys talking about is not coming, the valuations make sense, we can wrap our head around the business models. Now is the time to sort of act. And maybe thats going to be true. Some of these stocks, pull up aber com bee and fitch right quick, you look at this stock, you think, oh, my god, this is a parabolic move. It has to be expensive even despite the move weve seen, its still actually a very reasonable valuation for some of these names. So, you can understand why people are getting their arms around them. I still think well talk about macys in a second, that probably sort of lef states sle up. We looked at home depot, i dont know if it makes the prior alltime high, but this is one that probably continues to grind. You are probably watching cap p capri. I sold it around 50. It just really hasnt performed the way it bounced that first day when i was announced, as soon as it was announced. Really didnt hold price. Kind of fell in a precipitous fashion. I sold my tap estry. As soon as we were doing this, i knew guy was going to bring up aber com bee, its up 400 on a oneyear performance. It was better than nvidia last year. Right. If you look at american eagle, same type of thing. That kmchart is smooth, easy. Its funny, the things that are gaining in the retail space that its not really the Department Stores. So, macys has that 24 bid, its not you said 6. 6 billion, is what theyre willing to pay, are they willing and i saw the interview, when they originally said, maybe a couple weeks ago, what would you be willing to pay . Im not going to bid against myself, but a considerable amount more. So, macys still in play for another couple of bucks to the upside. I feel like retails a space that you once poopooed, dan, saying the consumer is going to fall out of bed, blah, blah, blah its all blah, blah, blah. Its interesting. We spend a lot of time talking about dicks last week. We saw that move to the upside when that stock blew out to an alltime high. And weve seen foot locker. Were going to get nike in a couple of days. I think for every dicks, you know what im talking about, steve, there is a foot locker. So, thats why if i had a dime for every time i heard that. So, my point is, i want to hear what chewy has to say about online sales. I want to hear what how nike is navigating the kind of geopolitical environment, i want to hear about the breakdown between online and stores and that sort of stuff. But again, i think a lot of this stuff kind of seems kind of oneoff. Look, look at a costco, they didnt see an uptick for a week after it reported its earnings, so, i guess my point is, its easy to poopoo this stuff, but it is getting more stock specific. And you throw in the potential for m a, because some of the dogs end up becoming darlings. Tomorrow morning, well see cigna jewelry, which had a very difficult pandemic, because nobody was getting engaged, and it takes years of dating before you get ingauged. They are trying work through that. Apparently thats how it works. That stock is not expensive, 10 short interest. That, if they come up with decent numbers, that could really pop tomorrow. They should be coming back to p prepandemic levels, but at this point, if you do the twoyear sort of delay yes, i think the Inflection Point is upon us. Interesting, Dicks Sporting Goods yes. Comes out dks, pull up a chart, youd be like, oh, my god, its got to be extepensiex actually no. Probably had, i dont know, 11 eps growth. Just came off at the quarter i think on march 15th. A bevy of analysts raised their price target. I think the average price target is 211. 25 and they are probably too cheap. I think what youre going to see over the next couple of weeks are analysts that will continue to sort of chase the move to the upside. And seasonality, youre going into their sweet spot, with a lot of sports coming back out. Yeah. Lets get more on the outlook for m a in the retail space with gerald storch. What do you think is in the air at this point in the Business Cycle that is creating the stir in retail m a . Well, its not at all unusual when you have troubled businesses or sectors to look at different olutions. If you were the nordstrom family, im not surprised they are looking at something different. Their stock has been marooned at the same level for over 20 years. And they made an offer before, it was rejected by the board. Its kind of tough when youre inside, you need the board to approve it, when you go private transaction, but what theyre doing, clearly, isnt working, particularly for Department Stores. And so, there are obvious pararells between the nordstrom situation and macys one. In both cases, they are looking to see, can we take this private . Maybe we can run it differently and do things that are more revolutionary, in terms of the business model, you know, because you can make changes outside of the public eye without that kind of glare of having to make every quarter. And so, they have in common this notion that being private might be a better way to run it. Its karen, thanks for being on. The history of retail sort of it willers with leveraged buyouts that didnt work. So, what do you think the new model is, given where rates are . How much equity do you think you need to have to be able to do a deal where the company isnt burdened by too much debt . Well, i think the first deals done in retail were done at higher leverage ratios. I saw a study recently, its very clear that was true. There was a sense these Retail Companies were cash machines. Then you had, you know, competition from the internet, for example, ecommerce and amazon. Need to invest in this whole new platform on top of everything that you had in front of you. And you had rising competition, in the case of the Department Stores from the offprice retailers like tjmaxx and ross stores. And so, the new leverage that would be applied to these companies, i would believe, would be less than what you saw in the early private equity deals, so, people have gotten smarter as theyve seen the history of whats going on here. Just on the side of karens question there, what do i make of this environment right now, as far as retail, is it to dans point, stock pickers, which we can all agree with . What do we see in the environment . Whats the landscape right now in the cycle of Retail Companies . Look, there are clear winners and losers. You say stock pickers some companies are doing well. The consumer is clearly getting stretched, most recent retail sales report, clearly, not good. No matter what you want to say about what happened last fall or didnt happen last fall. It hasnt been so good lately. Companies like walmart, tjx, costco, amazon, have done well regardless. And consumers are flocking to those names. And you mentioned five below tomorrow. I would expect similar kind of results out of them. There has been very little change, by the way, who the winners and losers are. If you look at what happened in the Third Quarter of last year compared to the fourth, almost every retailer that posted negative samestore sales in the Third Quarter posted very similar, by the way, negative samestore sales in the fourth quarter. Same thing as you look at companies that were positive, again, like the walmarts, tjxs, they didnt change very much. So, walmart was up 4. 9 in Third Quarter, up 4 in the fourth quarter. The stocks may bounce around on the earnings days, because expectations have been set for differential performance, but then what you see, theyre doing the same thing they did before, in the case of the Department Stores, they were steeply negative in the Third Quarter and still negative in the fourth quarter. And the outlooks are not very good. Similar for a company like target. They were negative 4. 9 same store sales, negative 4. 4 in the fourth quarter, while walmart was up 4. 9 and 4. So, that gap is one of the highest in history. So the winners are clearly winning, and the losers clearly arent doing so well. If you want any single metric, look at samestore sales, thats going to tell you whats going to happen over a meaningful long cycle. When you think about the retail landscape, which retailer gets taken out . Whats top on your list . By the way, i you know, i want to be public about the fact, im actually on the slate for archouse and brigade, that directors have nominated for macys, so, i think thats a real situation, or i wouldnt be involved there. The Department Stores have been struggling for a very long time. Were talking decades. And its clear that what theyre doing is not working. Every so often, oh, were reinventing the store, were cutting expenses, were closing more stores, and all thats done is give market share to the offprice players to the discount stores, to the amazons of the world. Look at this. Youve got you talk about nordstrom, worth about 3 billion, equity cap. Kohls, 3 billion. Macys, 6 billion. Dillards, the best one, 7 billion. The total Department Store sector hasekequity cap of 19 billion. 175 billion market value for the offpricers compared to 19 for the Department Stores. Remember the old saying, why pay Department Store prices, that was the tjmaxx slogan for years and years in their advertising the question now is, you know, why pay prices for the stocks of Department Stores in todays world . Clearly, they have, you know, lost tremendous value to these other sectors. Without even getting to discount stores, walmart and target, or to costco, the ecommerce. The world has shifted, and we need to see some kind of a change. The storch portfolio has no Department Stores in it . Is that right . As i mentioned, it doesnt mean im not involved in these situations. But the the growth in retail has been in the obvious places. And the meanwhile, the older situations, you know, without a dramatic change, it would be were talking about 20 y yearsplus of similar stagnation. Kohls is the same thing, by the way. For all of these names. So, why do we think its going to get better now . I just think thats just foolish, unless there is dramatic and meaningful change. Gerry, thank you. Great to get your take. Gerry storch. My pleasure. Jmorgan stanley put out a list, on there was kohls and under armour. Well, that is steve, im sure, has thoughts, ill go back to dillards real quick. Three, fouryear chart in dillards, 30 stock in the height of covcovid, june of 2020ish, look at the stock now. They reported what was a good quarter, but year over year, earnings actually decreased, yet valuation is still compelling. And theyre sort of running laps around their compecompetitors. So, despite this move, you see exactly what im looking at. I mean, this stock, there are certain stocks that despite the moves still have value, and this is one of them. Lets get back to the market rally. Major indices closing well in the green with the s p posting its 18th record close of the year. Meantime, the yield on the tenyear softening, retreating from almost onemonth highs, but the move in crude stoking inflation fears. Up 17 this year. So, how challenging is this backdrop for the fed right now . What are we expecting, if anything, out of this meeting tomorrow . So, i think what the market has told us, theyre going to do nothing. What i think theyre going to do is talk down or talk around tweaking qt. Because you cant have qt, if you are setting the stage for a rate cut, you cant be letting stuff fall off your Balance Sheet at the same time. Because one is dovish, ones hawkish. So, you have to do something with qt before we even talk about rate cuts. Karen . Going to change anything, you think . Ah i mean, i dont think they should do anything, i think inflation is heading the wrong way, and if we look at oil, we talk about that all the time, oil, going into were almost at the driving season, oil was about 14 lower this time last year. Thats a pretty big move. So, i dont think they should do anything. But if they do, then they got to do the cut and talk really hawkish. Its become a real political, i mean, you saw the letter from elizabeth warren, saying, you better cut rates because its hurting the alternative energy companies. Ywe mentioned it last night. Theyre entitled to their opinion. Its the absolute wrong opinion, in my opinion. I think it will hurt more people than it will help. But again, politics gets in the way. To karens point, though, the two most important commodities out there are crude oil and copper, and gasoline underneath crew oil. Gasoline is up significantly, why these refiners are doing so well. And coppers breaking out right before our very eyes. So, i dont know what would force the fed to move in a meaningful way. And quite frankly, im not a big fan of the federal reserve, but i think Jerome Powell has been steadfast in his want to slay this inflation dragon. I dont think anyones listening to bernie and warren right now, and i think the Biden Administration realizes that they have, what, 7 1 2, 8 months in the election, and, you know, if they dont have inflation at least the idea of it under control, i dont i would suspect that theyre not dying for what would be politicized rate cuts that would just juice the stock market or juice the economy if inflation were to become imbedded, because thats the thing that they are getting very poor marks on right now, as it relates to the economy. And we can all sit around here, unemployments still below 4 , housing is okay, all those sorts of things, i know Consumer Credit is ticking up, but if that stuff starts to go the other way, that would be a real problem you got to cut you got to cut before that stuff goes the other way or else theyre going to be late. So, thats the misconception, i think the market has, is that were waiting for unemployment to spike higher or waiting for defaults to spike higher. If we wait and we see that, theyre late. Thats the only reason why it might seem the wrong thing to do, but they have to do it to stay ahead of it. All right. Coming up, we are checking in on nvidia after its big gtc conference. What they had to say about all aspects of the company. More on the semi trade next. Plus, builders bouncing back. Housing stocks in the green after strong housing data. Is the Group Building up a Strong Foundation . Dont go anywhere. Fast money is back in two. This is fast money with or buzzer beater he wont wax poetic on. Ad nauseam. But oh how he can nail a Software Solution like the best high screen pick and roll youve ever seen. You need ron. Ron needs a retirement plan. Work with principal so we can help you help ron with a retirement and benefits plan thats right for him. Let our expertise round out yours. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Rylee from rylees realty hi this listing sounds incredible. Lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. my name is oluseyi get iphone 15 pro on us. And some of my favorite moments throughout my life are watching sports with my dad. Now, i work at comcast as part of the team that created our ai highlights technology, which uses ai to detect the major plays in a sports game. Giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. Welcome back to fast money. Nvidia shares erasing early losses and closing the day up a percent. The chipmaker unveiled its latest chip platform blackwell last night. Jensen huang sitting down with jim cramer this morning. The Application Software is being offered by ansys and cadence, autodesk, adobe, and others our technology is integrated into theirs. Our technology is integrated into all these computer makers. And the world connects it together, and thats the reason why nvidia is everywhere. You can catch more of that interview, 6 00 p. M. Eastern time tonight on mad money. Elsewhere in the a. I. Trade, supermicro, shares tumbling 9 after the company filed to sell an additional 2 million shares to purchase inventory, expand manuf manufacturing, and research and development. The company was intended to do that premarket today, it got delayed, which is sort of unusual. So, theres some other little drama surrounding that share sale for supermicro. This is the second one, right, over the course of the last couple weeks good for them, by the way. They should. Exactly what they should be doing. Its not ridiculously expensive on valuation, but given the stock move, karen says this all the time. You have to take advantage of it, without question. Nvidia price action today was very good. Early on today, it was looking like it continued to want to break down from two fridays, again reversal, and the fact it closed positive on the day is encouraging. Lets continue to see what happens over the next week or so. I still go back to that friday of two weeks ago, the reversal, say that might have been a top, but i mean, you sort of you know, be your own guide at this point in this name. Rosenblatt securities says theyll likely be sold out of the blackwell chip through 2025 already. Through next year. Well, nvidias everywhere, mel. Apparently. One of the things thats interesting, amd had a bad day today. Amd is down 20 from the highs it made a couple weeks ago in that big reversal day. So, whats interesting to me, theres a lot of dispersion in this space. We saw broadcom report, the stock has barely seen an uptick, so, its interesting that the s semi trade is now becoming increasingly concentrated around nvidia. Nvidia, no doubt about it, trades well. It is consolidating here, in and around that 900 level. When its down, people buy it. Seems like theres no bad headline for this stock, but i just say this, that guy walked out there for two hours, walked around the stage in front of 16,000 people that were gagging over every word of his. People just come to your senses a little bit. I mean, like, this is a company that produces a product that you dont even touch. Its not even in your pocket like an iphone or anything like that. The last time weve seen this sort of excitement was in and around apple, and you can say this, were going to do this every night, you can say this, it has gained a trillion dollars in market cap this year. This quarter. Its anticipating blackwell, its anticipating being sold out for a year. All of this stuff, so, thats it. Have fun with it. Still doesnt mean that it still doesnt mean it can go further. I dont think thats what youre saying. It could. Or the markets were flatfooted when it came to anticipated what a. I. Should be and would become and should when you are saying it dwayned a trillion. A trillion ago, maybe we should have started the climb earlier. I sort of think theres Something Else going on today, which is him talking about, were everywhere, right . Hes partnering up with everyone. Everybody. Right . So, if he captures all of them, you have nowhere else to go. Right. And thats the part, to me, thats really interesting. And a. I. , of course, were in, i dont know what inning, not the first anymore, but early, early. And if hes going to be, you know, just sort of marking his spots everywhere, everybodys got to go to him, thats thats a whole other thing. Thats kind of fascinating. The other thing he said today in jims interview, everything we do starts with software. Yes. Really went out trying to sell the notion that it is a platform, if they are making the partnerships, its harder to switch, youre in that system, developers are building on that, and then, you know, you go out a year and where is amd left in that . Thats the concern. And they have, to karens point, weve been talking about this, theyre 85 market share in this space. If theres supply demand log jams here, they are going to remain in that seat. If you talk about valuation, you look at a forward pe, invid ya trades less expensive than microsoft. Less expensive than amazon. Dont look at the pe now. Nvidia forward pe is 36 times. Even among chips its not the top five in valuation. Exactly. Which means it has tremendous amount of runway before this gets crazy. It was intel, they had all the market share, except you had to have at least one other supplier so you didnt get caught with nothing. Is that where we are right now . Nvidia theres amd. Maybe intel to some degree. Intel hopes, yeah. Theres a lot more fast money to come. Heres whats coming up next. Theres no place like home. And builders are putting hammer to nail, as the Housing Market looks to recover. The data sending those stocks higher, next. Plus, and speaking of real estate, why our next guest says commercial property is still looking for a bottom. The signs coming out of the credit market. Youre watching fast money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Were back right after this. Welcome back. We have a news alert on a Canadian National selling trade secrets to china about an american company. Eamon javers has the details. Eamon . This just coming in from a press release from the department of justice. They say a Canadian National was arrested earlier today in nassau county, new york, and this Canadian National was attempting to sell electric vehicle battery trade secrets to undercover officers. The person involved here allegedly believed that those undercover officers were legitimate Business People he could sell these secrets to. Now, it looks as if, from the context here, that the Company Involved as the victim of all of this was, in fact, tesla, given the description of the situation that the department of justice lays out in this press release. They are saying that a man, a Canadian National, resident of the peoples republic of china, was arrested for conspiring to send to undercover Law Enforcement officers trade secrets that belonged to a leading u. S. Based electric vehicle company. They only identify here as Victim Company number one. But again, from the circumstances here laid out in the document, it does appear that this may be tesla that was involved in this transaction, and melissa, the interesting thing here is, this person was employed by a Company Allegedly that was sold to tesla back in 2019, and has been living in china since then. So, its not clear exactly how much damage was done to tesla by these trade secrets walking out the door of that company, but the individual has been living in china for quite a long time, was arrested in long island today. Back over to you. Eamon, thank you. Eamon javers. Meanwhile, Home Builders getting a boost today. All up more than 2 with names like lennar and kb homes in the green. This after housing data for february came in better than expected. Housing starts up 1. 52 million compared to forecasted 1. 43 million. Building permits reaching their highest level since august. Part of it is seasonality, the weather was better in the past month. But still, very strong showing. I mean, weve talked about this now for the last two years. Interest rates, i get it, its important. Not nearly as important as supply demand imbalances, which still havent gone away. Heres the, in my opinion, the only well, one of the main risk, the unemployment rate. We saw it move from 3. 7 to 3. 9, if that continues, which, by the way, i think it will, i think home builder trade might get extended. If you believe that unemployment is going to stay at current levels, then you can make a very compelling case that these stocks are still a buy at these levels. Home retail insulated, karen . Maybe thats part of this retail thing, as well. I always wonder, though, what would happen to the Home Builders if we saw a series of Interest Rate cuts . You know, the knee jerk would be, oh, up, but at some point, you unleash all of this existing Home Inventory that hasnt been on the market. I were far from that, but i think it would be an interesting dynamic. Right. I think dr horton, the last time i was on, dr horton has been underperforming the space, and they are a spec builder. So, if you start to see rates even have a glimpse of starting to come in, people are willing to lift the leg and say, i could always refinance, but the Mortgage Rates have to be going in the right direction in order for them to lock up a mortgage thats much higher than they want to ultimately have. So, dhi has been a name that i think could catch up once we start to actually see rates start to begin to fall. Is the bottom in for commercial real estate . Our next guest isnt convinced. The signs hes seeing in the credit market that could be pointing to more pain ahead. Drew mcknight joins us on that, plus how problems for the banks could just be getting started. Fast money is back in two. Missed a moment of fast . Catch us any time on the go. Follow the fast money podcast. Were back right after this. Next. Next. Stop. We got it . No. Keep going. Aga. [ sigh ] next. Next. If you dont pick one. Oh, you have time. Am i keeping you from your job. Next. I dont even know where i am anymore. Stop. Do we finally have it . Lets go back to the beginning. Are you. Your electric future. Customized. The fullyelectric audi q4 etron. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks closing in the green today. The s p notching a record cloud. The dow jumping more than 300 points, and the nasdaq up 0. 4 . Shares of International Paper jumping 11 , leading the s p 500, its best day in more than four years as the Company Names a new ceo. Shares of pinduoduo lower today after reports the Company Shopping app temu is looking to lessen its reliance on the United States market. Dan, you brought this up before. Because they spent so much to get into the u. S. , that was actually benefiting google and meta, which, the reverse could be true, it would hurt google and meta. Obviously this plays into the whole kind of tit for tat thats going on with tiktok, too. How we kind of treat their companies who are trying to be here. Its been a huge boon, i think, for google and meta, but lets see if that happens. The other thing is, they are losing a lot of money being here, and so, you know, again, theyre going to likely shift that, if the political winds change a little bit. You think they lose a lot of money when they send me a 4. 99 bathing suit in a package from china . How do you think about it in terms of the impact on retail . Well, i think that its you think who has really been hurt, its h and m, theyve really been hurt, etsy was up a bunch this morning on that, ended up not up very much at all, but its i didnt think originally of your take on it, advertising dollars, that huge super bowl spend shop like a billionaire. All billionaires buy 4. 99 kids bathing suits from china. Look, you mean there are now two people on this desk that can probably know what that feels like, and one of them is our next guest. The other one is karen finerman. Oh, shop like a billionaire . Exactly. Nearly a trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans are set to mature this year. Thats an increase of almost 30 from a year ago, and that might be just one of the concerns looming over the credit market. Drew mcknight joins us here on set. Welcome to our set here in new york city. Thanks for having me. The last time we saw drew was in miami. So, what you think were at the top of the first inning when it comes to the problems were going to face in commercial real estate . How does this sort of unfold . Is it sort of a rolling default . A crisis situation . How do you see that . I do. I think its top of the first inning. I think if you look at the number of defaults to date, its very, very low. Why is that . Its a host of reasons. Theyve been able to extend maturities, but if you really think about it, theres Capital Structures that are pside down. Its not just in office, its always in multifamily. As you think about this opportunity and whats going to have to happen, real estate was the biggest beneficiary of low rates. That was the prime beneficiary, and unless rates can reset quickly, i just dont see an easy solution, you know, how does that play out, if you take a step back and think about the crisis in the early 90s, there were 700 institutions that fail ed. Weve had five so far. Im not saying were going to have that deep of a of a recession, but you know, if you think about rtc, it was very centralized to real estate. Our own view is the economy might be able to hold up okay, even if we have this real estate reset, but for folks that own real estate levered, it could be very painful. Drew, its interesting. One of your peers, jon gray, the president of blackstone last week, i think he said real estate prices have bottomed, and if you move fast, you can buy as sets at cheap prices. That seems to be very contradictory to what youre saying. You said were in the first inning of a reset here. I think they have a very large and long time horizon, so, in the context of trying to put 100 billion to work, maybe you need to get really aggressive right now. I think in trying to pick a bottom, i you this its really early. A lot of times, prices will go lower for real estate, i think almost across the board, and if you think about whats going how are Interest Rates going to go lower, because i think that will be part of what has to happen in order for real estate to reset, the only Interest Rates are going to go lower is if the economy really slows down and if the fed can actually start to cut, which, again, if you look at whats going on, boj just hiked today for the first time, i think, in 17 years, i think were actually far away from them really being able to cut meaningfully. Do you think were going to see some sort of Tipping Point event, like, a couple of big asset sales that force everyone to mark their books lower, which triggers all kinds of more collateral, whatever it might be, where liquidity crunch really quickly follows . You know, i think it its hard to know. I think if you look back at what happened last year, with Silicon Valley bank and some of the some of the crisis we had last year, that was really centralized on a handful of banks that had very specific asset liability mismatch and we still had a deposisit flight th was massive. I think with real estate, every bank has exposure, and to your point, if you think back to the Global Financial crisis, it didnt matter which bank was transacting. If any bank transacted at any price, everyone went through every banks Balance Sheet and if loans traded at 70 cents, every banks Balance Sheet is marked at 70 cents. I dont think thats correct, but if we do enter that stage of this sort of crisis, i think you could have that. Drew, what will be the warning soons for the audience . Small and regional banks rolling over again . Is it something in the hyg, the high yield credit etf . What should we be looking for . I think what will be the trigger will start to be the actual transactions. Youll see asset sales occur. Right now, there are banks that do want to delever that want to sell assets. They need to raise equity or raise reserves in order to do that. To steve and i were talking to the healthy banks, i think theyre going to be able to take the reserves, they have the earnings. This is a good environment. And i believe the strong will get stronger and i think the Smaller Banks that arent positioned will either have to get bought or get liquidated. Youve acquired performing loans, office loans, specifically, at just cents on the dollar, right . 50, 60 cents on the dollar. So, where else are you seeing these opportunities right now . Especially, you though, since were in the early innings and still expecting rough times ahead, you are still outthere buying assets . Again, i do think one of the things jon gray said was, you need to be buying as things are bottoming. If you can buy loans at a healthy enough discount and getting coupons along the way, you have the ability and downside protection, were also very active in forward flows, with Mortgage Origination and consumer finance. And then i think Real Estate Equity will be a big opportunity. I think its going to be a long road ahead. Drew, thank you for being with us. What are you looking for . Well, its why i asked the question. If there is a credit event, or in this lets back up for a second. A name like simon properties, stocks rallied 2 since the october low. In the absence of bad news, people are going to sort of flock to these names. But if you are in the drew mcknight camp and think theres somethings going to happen along the way and we are in the early innings, these things should start to roll over. The thing that i will continue to look at, the hyg, which basically doesnt move until it does, and thats going to bea warning sign. One thing drew said that i really agree with is, problem for regionals, not a problem, maybe, an opportunity, for bigger. To six that way. Long jpmorgan, im long nycb that the group coming up, bitcoins bad week. Dropping below 63,000 at one point today, more than 10,000 lower than the alltime high just last week. Is the crypto bull run already over . Plus, survey says well reveal the latest editor in chief poll with caleb silver. Thats right after this. Constant contact makes it easy. Helping him craft the perfect message like a marketing genius so his email stands out. Constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. If billy can do it so can you. Get started today at constantcontact. Com. Helping the small stand tall. What is cirkul . Cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. Cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. [alarm beeping] amelia, turn off alarm. Amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. Amelia, unlock the door. Im afraid i cant do that, jen. Why not . Did you forget something . My protein shake. The future isnt scary, not investing in it is. Youre so dramatic amelia. Bye jen. 100 innovative companies, one etf. Before investing, carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Welcome back. Bitcoin falling below 63,000 at one point today. Thats a steep drop from last weeks record high of over 73,000. The rest of the crypto space falling in sympathy. Microstrategy, coinbase, and more all seeing significant drops today. Jpmorgan warning that microstrategys bitcoin purchases could make bitcoins fall even worse. The company has bought 1. 5 billion in bitcoin over the last two weeks alone. Steve, youre in ethereum im in ethereum, im in ibit, one of the efts for bitcoin, and if you have 11 etfs, theres going to be a lot more people to sort of catch these moves. Bnd these moves are extremely volatile. Look at the longterm chart on bitcoin. Its not immune to the ups and downs. I do believe now you have a host of people in funds that are able to buy it, so, the low and you cant prove or disprove the counterfactual, but ultimately, it should trade in a lot tighter channel than it used to, and with that many more people that are buying it, i think its going higher. Ive been buying on dips. Ive been wondering, is it this idea the fed is going to be more disciplined and thats going to be one of the underpinnings, fed going nuts, but you would think gold gold has not kept up to the downside, better for you gold bugs, significantly underperforming gold, so interesting, drew mentioned bank of japan, first time in 17 years. I think thats part of it, as well. I think if this is a fed thats going to continue, at least if theyre going to sound hawkish, that is counter to what the bit count people want them to do. So, this move, to me, it makes sense. Its interesting, you mentioned gold and what its been doing. Gold gained 1. 4 trillion in the last month, bitcoin, up 50 gold up is 10 , bitcoin is up 50 , its gained half that in market cap. So, theres still a bid for gold. Coming up, why retail traders are seeing markets as a glass half full. And where theyre putting their money to work right now. Details when fast money returns. With the power of ai. With a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. Just start with a domain, a few clicks, and youre in business. Make now the future at godaddy. Com airo at Ameriprise Financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. All that planning has paid off. Looks like you can make this work. We can make this work. And the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice. I can make this work. That seems to be universal. I can make this work. I can make this work. No wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. Because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. You can make money the hard way as a bullfighter is advice worth talking about. Or a human cannonball. Or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. Existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year not only will you save hundreds but youll also be joining millions who have connected to americas most reliable 5g network. Sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. Get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. Visit xfinitymobile. Com today to learn more. News alert here on chipotle. The stock is going to split. Yeah, the first in its history, chipotles board approving a 50 for 1 stock split. You can see the stock trading just about at 2,800. It would be become effective on the close of june 25th. You would need to buy the stock by june 18th in order to qualify, and it would begin trading on a postsplit basis on wednesday, june 26th. This would, i imagine, help them be included in more indexes, i would imagine, if you bring that price down. Melissa . Yep. The dow seems a little bit more likely, with the split. Bertha, thank you. And were going to see the stock pop, because that makes no sense at all, but thats what happens, right . Thats what happens. Mathematically, it makes no sense, but for other reasons, as bertha says, it makes sense. A lot of beans, by the way. Which you dont want. No. Even with the big run in stocks this year, individual investors are still optimistic on the market. Editor in chief caleb silver is here to dive into the results and reveal a new emoji heat map. This was a good one, because it really shows how investors feel right not about the markets, and that is, what, caleb . Sometimes that knee jerk reaction is the one you want, and cue joe cocker, because theyre feeling ing all right. More are cautiously optimistic. 49 . Twothirds say they are optimistic in some way. And a lot of them are expecting higher returns over the next six months, despite the fact that weve had 18 alltime hikes already this year, a lot of pressure in different parts of the market. But theyre feeling really good and ready to buy more. A lot of them, most of them, have money in money markets, though, do they intend on if they are feeling so good, why not put it into equities . We asked that question, and 60 said they have money market funds and half of them said they are ready to start moving that into stocks. All the sideline money, the 6. X trillion, that may come from Retail Investors, which could keep us at higher highs. Yeah. The bubble is, where dan thinks theres a bubble, a. I. , right . A. I. Related stocks, crypto, megacap tech, housing and real estate and internet and communication stocks. But they hold a lot of these in their portfolios and would buy more if they had more money. And what about crypto, too . Because, again, you guys do a breakout on that, and do people, like, you guys have millions and millions of viewers who go to your site every month. So, talk to us about what were seeing month over month, just talking about the spot etfs and bitcoin. Crypto was kryptonite up until this year, when the spot etfs came and we saw the big price spike. 1 in 10 are actually interested. Bitcoin curious. We have more people actually more interested in it, probably because of those spot bitcoin etfs. The price, that rings bells in peoples ears. And theyre worried about the president ial election and inflation, all the stuff all the usual. Caleb, great to see you, thank you. Caleb silver. Up next, final trades. Rylee from rylees realty hi this listing sounds incredible. Lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. [ ] your skin is everchanging, take care of it with gold bonds age renew formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. For all your skins, gold bond. grandpa vo im the richest guy in the world. Of 7 moisturizers and hi baby ns. woman 1 vo i have inherited the best traditions. woman 2 vo i have a great boss. Its me. man 1 vo i have people, people i can count on. man 2 vo i have time to give grandma vo and a million stories to share. grandpa vo if thats not rich, i dont know what is. vo the key to being rich is knowing what counts. What is cirkul . Cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. Cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. Final trade time. Steve . Iot, its samsara, internet of things. Karen . Yes, im staying short kre, which i put on against nycb. Dan . The z in zebra, that would be zoom. Hanging in there okay. Guy . I love caleb. I do. Yes. Hes great. And you guys are like, go back decades. He was a baby field producer and i was a baby reporter. And you are all grown up. Nice. The nasdaq, on the secondary offering. You buy the weakness. All right, thank you for tching ing my mission is simple, to make you money. Im here to level the playing feel for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to the woodstock of a. I. , nvidias tech conference. Im just trying to make you a little money. My job is to explain the stuff. Call me at 1800743cnbc or