Amazon and a white shoe wall street firm with a noteworthy winning streak im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight tim seymour, carter worth, guy adami, and danny moses stocks in the green with the dow jumping more than 330 points, extending its longest winning streak of the year to seven days the s p and nasdaq closing near their highs of the day markets are in a wait and see period cpi next week, nvidia earnings towards the end of the month so, while we wait for these potential catalysts, we thought it might be a good time to ask the traders what they see as their high eest conviction trad. Guy . Exciting time, guy. I was hoping baited breath stop it come on what is it going to be . That means the one i feel most strongly about. Yes, exactly. Gdx, melms. Why pull up a chart finally, the gold mining stocks are catching up to the underlying commodity, that, obviously, being gold. And gold has been under pressure until today, but you know what, the mining stocks have been hanging in there and actually going higher as a matter of fact, i think today or the last couple days, we made a multiyear high i think gold is absolutely in play i think its basically held in there like a champ in the face of many things that historically would take lower, and here we are. So, gold goes sideways from here, which i dont think is going to happen, i think its going higher i think the miners the play huge catchup in the back half of 2024 this has been a trade you have liked as well, tim. If i didnt have my High Conviction trade tonight, i would have guys High Conviction trade. I think the meainers have had a little trouble with the inflation story. Im not sure that thats right i also think that gdx could be flawed if you look at the size of newmont and what thats meant to the overall return. I think gold is going a lot higher i think Precious Metals are going higher time frames are arbitrary, right . Year to date, could be one month, six 12 months is not thats a trailing 12month data. The s p is up 1 gold miners are up 26. Its been a great area of the market what it has lagged, though, is the commodity. And so, theres leverage and operating business relative to the underlying commodity theyve been great already, up 26 , but theres more to come. Oh, okay. Im expected to give a short idea, always, when i come on, i want to say, im glad to be back when the market is up again. This is, like, third time in a row. Really good to be here im watching the lower end consumer i love the gold trade. Thank you, danny. Im watching the lower end consumer, and a rate cut, two, three, is not going to help them and you are already seeing whats going on in subprime auto and the subprime consumer. Discover is being bought by cap one, no one is paying attention to that. Im looking at some of the names right now in subprime auto cacc y two names, which weve talked about on the show before, affirm and upstart. This is your High Conviction trade. Right yes, you have to deal with the ebbs and flows of the shorts, Short Covering, but i think were in motion here, and just think, this economy has been so strong for so long, imagine if unemployment ticks up. Theres casualties to that in some of the companies. Havent we heard this for a long time, that tick higher has not happened and affirms delinquency rate was only 2. 3 if you bring up a carter chart of affirm, youll see its been on the down swing, pops have come up bottom line is, theyre handcuffed by how much funding they can get and they are expecting an uptick going forward. So, just imagine if you couple that with unemployment rising, those are the people who get hit the most when unemployment rises. We talked about this last night in terms of these firms dont even know what other buy now pay later loans, the same consumers might have on another platform this has been a very the room is getting louder in terms of the voices talking about it danny is hitting something that i think we all fear. Today, you had a jobless claims number, its a volatile series, it was up 20,000, its still historically very low, but all we do is talk about the consumer that has a job theres no question the fed is targeting the labor market whether they say it or not and theres no question theyre going to succeed at some point so, at some point, the credit issues, and again, whatever your timing is, it will play out. And to the extent that theres been there was a moment when buy now pay later and affirm and these a lot of these essentially a lot of this funding came to market, it was the case when the consumer had all kinds of money to spend. They dont have that same pocketbook are you thinking down into the teens, that kind of thing, or yeah, i do. Upstart is much more precarious. The book value is 5, 6 thats how it should be valued its a Financial Company i know were going to talk about another company late theirs posing as Something Else, were going to get to that at some point, but that was very cryptic it is always so shocking. I want to watch i have no idea what that is. Who could guess but in terms of this trade, guy, timing is everything. Timing is everything. When youre shorting something. Pull up an affirm chart since this december, this past december, this stock has made a series of lower lows, lower highs, in a very defined downtrend. Theres your chart right there and thats in place. Of course, the problem with a trade like this is exactly what you just said. Trying to catch the timing i think what youre hoping for and you saw some of it today, actually had a decent day to the upside on decent amount of volume you have a couple of days where shorts capitulate, and thats probably your opportunity to put that short position back on. Do you see the levels that danny is hoping for . Yeah thats why i asked, because it looks as though its going lower. Now the question is how much tim, lets get to your High Conviction trade well, you outlined a scenario, what markets are doing, theyre grinding higher, and were within 50 bips of an alltime high. Say what you want about the fed, also its a waiting game, but were in an environment where probably the central bank thats going to be cutting first is the ecb. My highest conviction trade is europe its european blue chips if you look at the euro stocks 50 or the 600, its finally outperforming the s p for the first time maybe in a decade and this could just be a small window but there is a dynamic here, where there are technical and structural reasons why european understood sis have underperformed the s p and certainly the nasdaq over the last five to ten years, and they have a lot to do with the mag seven. The Biggest Tech Companies in the world live in the United States, its tough t flows and passive fund flows into europe. When you have asml novo. And novo, you have some pretty sexy, you know, pharma, bio tech, and Tech Companies that are getting their just due. And if you look at the performance of europe over the last year, these companies have had a same disproportionate outsized return profile to the overall index. I think we know in the blicep, the i is my international etf. I think you have a dynamic here, where international really has a backdrop even with a stronger dollar. And again, the dollar will strengthen, if the central bank differentials favor the fed being tighter than the ecb but its still going to be good for european stocks. Look at the european banks it is easy to pick on Deutsche Bank over the years, but if you look at their performance, look at a bnp, ubs, these are stocks that are up 20 , to 25 . So, i like europe and i think its going to continue. Weve had strategists put forth their version of the mag seven, i think today you mentioned that the latest is they like acronyms, too, guy. Who you dont see, you 1. You dont get as high multiple with gra nonolgranola you seem disappointed what did i do wrong . Theres no such thing as blicep, tim. You know this. But you were playing by the rules and you decided not to granola. Well, granola, youve got gsk, youve got r ooche nestle. A couple of ns they really bent the rules people have done that in our game, as well. I wont name names, but but the point is they are very Interesting Companies and its essentially an a antitechnology bet. Yes its all about europes no w weighting in technology, heavy weighting in big banks, not a lot in retail. Its a very different index than the s p. Its a value story yeah. Theres no question. And if weve been struggling mag sevens are having trouble making new highs and i think its wait for nvidia to really see what happens i think its interesting there is one Company Leaving europe, coming to the new york stock exchange, which is flutter. I know tim knows it very well, which is fan dual, and theyre going to be listed on new york, theyre moving from the lse here, end of may, they report numbers. We see whats going on with wagering the money in the Kentucky Derby. Much cheaper than draft kings, so it trades half the multiple of draftkings. Wow and going to the u. S. Exchanges, danny is totally right. This is going to see fund flows, most people dont know what flutter is i can finally be on the right side of passive flows. Quickly, this is sort of im sorry, melissa i am youre going to hijack the show right now you are. Im not you totally are when you say that, it makes me its such a bad connotation about hijacking. I dont want to be one of those people what are you going to do . The Kentucky Derby was this weekend. What is this gentlemans name . Danny who normally sits in this seat dan what was the winning horse . Mystic dan. Did you bet on that horse no. You had the other six horses you wanted to be contrarian i did im not a name understand that danny moses had six of the top seven horses and he still lost money. Guess who made money off of me fan duel, so, there you go all right, carter what is your highest conviction trade here so, john deere. And we can look at a chart or two in a second, but this is an important american franchise think 18084, 220 years, caterpillar didnt start until 100 years later. But its a stock that after basically a four bagger off the low of covid has consolidated for almost four years. So, lets go to the charts and see what we can see this is a comparative chart. Two lines, two colors. And you can see the divergence with caterpillar second chart is the here and now chart of john deere. And that setup is something thats about to move above a well defined downtrend line. And then finally, look at the longterm chart, and again, this is whats important. The stock goes from 100 on the covid low to 400 in basically a year a four bagger in a low beta sort of industrial sleepy name. And then after that has spent threeplus years going sideways. So, is it worth more or less than it was three years ago . In principle, its worth more. Play for the breakout. How do the final bounces line up i like it on valuation. Despite the move that its made, and again, if youre looking at a threeyear or even, you know, a oneyear or a tenyear, it has had at least a move over some time here. The multiple, its probably cheaper than it was five years ago. Its a company that not only is getting some of the benefits that the other Industrial Companies are getting from a. I. And efficiencies, but its a company that i think is probably in the sweet spot right now of an ag commodity cycle. Report on the 16th before the bell, may 16th, that is. You dont have the eps growth, however, you have a valuation thats basically discounting a lot of that. Trades at less than 14 1 2 times next years numbers. Its been building this base weve seen decent news out of caterpillar. We talked about the base yesterday. We did talked about a base, not the base dont get mad at me for that. I didnt bring it up i wasnt this is on point. Carter mentioned a fouryear consolidation. Big base. Yeah, and that, of course, is great thats what were setting up for sorry, im a little agitated now. Join the club. Meantime, weekly jobless claims coming in at the highest levels since last august, raising hope that the fed may cut rates. But our next guest isnt too convinced. Ben eamons is a senior Portfolio Manager and head of fixed income at new edge wealth ben, what are the factors that will drive us above 5 at this point . It seems like we found a nice little range here in the 4. 5 range or so. Thats what it looks like, but again, i was watching japan. Weve talked about it on the show before. The latest there is that the bank of japans now really openly out saying, we may have to move faster and sooner than we thought before, because theyre looking at the yen that continues to struggle. And the connection there obviously between the tenyear and the yen is pretty strong but i you this its really the japanese market that is going to play here, because thats inching towards 1 on the tenyear yield thats sort of a psychological barrier, right just like in our market when we went to 4 , now close to 5 , so, we have to really watch this, because as much as the market is controlled by the boj, as they say, they can just as much move as fast as treasuries, really lily kwidty. So, i think its going to be really interesti ing from here o bank of japan is going to manage Interest Rates so, if the boj does make a move, it would seem to me that that would be a permanent move a permanent move, meaning theyll stay at that level, higher levels, right . And so, therefore, the tenyear yield would stay at higher levels do you think this is a sustained move above 5 , because of this, or is this just a pop above . Because markets have been able to deal with a pop above here and there, but if its sustained, thats a little bit of a different story i think thats a good point, bau because if the link is there, that japanese Interest Rates go higher and correlation with u. S. Rates is there, then that sustained move, as you talked about, would be a completely different world. We have to put intoen c contexta 5 would do, it would put more pressure on the u. S. Economy, that would lead people to discounting there would be rate hikes coming in the global rate space as its being traded, japanese government bonds have never really played a role driving Interest Rates thats changing now. You could have, say a period of the tenyear hitting 5 or higher, and stay there, and then were going to keep debating it. So, i think theres this risk that were going to go higher. Ben, i want to say i agree with you the flip side of the coin is, though, gdp came in very disappointing. The data thats been coming out has been soft. That would suggest rates should go lower, so, you have this tug of war going on, and youre suggesting its going to be won by the supply side of things, and probably throw some inflation in there, and thats why you have yields going higher but is there a chance that obviously the economic side wins out and rates go down . There is, but i would im more on the side what youre saying the supply side is driving it. Because it seems to have higher rates have not really impacted that, and thats, i think, really a function of, we continue to put a lot of money in the economy every day im on this inflation reduction act, and infrastructure act tracker, so to speak, every day, i see emails from projects across the country i think its driving productivity higher, and thats part of the push behind rates, that makes it hard for them to go sustainably down. I mean, the other part of that is, we have no real Downside Pressure yet on inflation. Were kind of stuck where we are. Could develop, but i dont think its likely. This we get really moved down, i could see rates lower. So, i think its struggling here for the treasury market to make real gains the low end of the curve will continue to stay under pressure. The Global Central Bank experiment began in japan, so, now theyre right in the middle of it again. To guys point, if the tenyear yield starts to move in the u. S. Based on supply and demand, i dont think a lot of people are in that camp so, if you start to go north of 5 while inflation may be coming in, it may get people a a little exercise, as guy likes to say, and what do we do at that moment were backing away from qt, we could some day go to qe. But what gets people thinking about the deficit and the debt levels of the u. S. And what that means for higher rates yeah, that point, danny, is right. The real Tipping Point is the Interest Rate level in itself relative where gdp is. If youre getting Interest Rates 3 , 4 above gdp, people start calculating how the level is going to balloon, and thats going to be even higher rates. Thats what europe experienced ten years ago. Its hard to pinpoint the exact level of rates, because who knows, but i do think that you make a fair point here that this is another aspect of the supply side we cant ignore the deficit. We know that nothing is happening on the deficit front neither president is making any kind of statement or doing anything, perhaps, about it, so, the market is going to have to discount a risk premium. My estimate is, theres studies on this, too, its at least 30 basis points in the tenyear, that seems to be the case. That seems small, but its incremental, right talk about sustained, you take 30 basis points off the tenyear, you get a little data surprise, were above 5 and th. Ben, thank you for coming by. Thank you ben emons where do you see yields going . Yeah, i guess the higher for longer, when you hear mantras, something becomes very popular, like granola, for instance, dot com, a. I. , its usually right to sort of question it, not just embrace it so, we know this, at the end of 2022, in q3, we were at 4. 35 , thats october of 22. Were now may of 24 and were 4. 45 . So, unless im doing the math wrong, were up ten basis points in 20 months is that higher its not higher. Its maybe goldilgoldilocks that period, where weve gone up ten basis points, golds up 40 , s ps up 40 yields are up ten basis points since october of 2022 . I hear you on that. And again, you picked two points and you are usually very, you know you point that out every time, but we do have an uptrend in rates and you could go from july of 2020 and we have an uptrend thats doing this, or, for you people at home, Something Like that, and i just think that, bens right, were all right to be pointing out the difference between rising Interest Rates related to inflation and rising Interest Rates and its absolutely a credit issue for the u. S. Government. When it comes to rus, we dont know thats given us a lot of credit that maybe we dont deserve. Thats fair what i try to grapple with is, the feds talking about easing i would think that thats good for the economy. I would think the tenyear y yields wouldnt come down, they would go up in a healthy way we had 5 , 6 back before the government intervened. Its normal. And the economy is doing very well with these rates up here i think its starting to have an impact i mean, the human condition is to want to see change, right . Because somethings not moving, you are bored, you move onto Something Else in any part of your life . Very true we dont need to go into that weve been here for 17 years. But anyway point being, i mean, were always looking for something thats moving. What if it is just and i have a lot of big clients who say, were just in a sweet spot, its going to be this 4 to 5 and thats where its going to sit what if thats the case . Then the whole conversation equities go higher. Maybe so. Or its not worth talking about yields right all right, coming up, the data center reit reporting blowout earnings and saying a. I. Is helping them grow. Inside the big move next. Plus, roblox wreckage. Falling more than 22 on earnings today we will look at the numbers behind this buzz kill, right after this this is fast money with melissa lee right here on cnbc the future is not just going to happen. You have to make it. And if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. The all new godaddy airo. Put your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. T mobiles 5g Network Connects a hundred thousand delta employees so they can make every customer feel like theyve arrived before theyve left the ground. This is how business goes further with t mobile for business. Norman, bad news. I never graduated bufrom med school. Her what . But the good news is. Xfinity mobile just got even better now, you can automatically connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go. Plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. I gotta get this deal. Thats like 20 a month per unlimited line. I dont want to miss that. Thats amazing doc. Mobile savings are calling. Visit xfinitymobile. Com to learn more. Doc . Welcome back to fast money. Eqinix saying that the rapidly evolving a. I. Landscape continues to be a catalyst pushing growth the stock putting in its best day since 2020. A. I. Optimism boosting amazon to a fresh alltime high. Theyre up 25 this year and investing in mren plenty of. Of its own as of late. Guy, what do you make of this new high here . So, amazon is breaking out. Carter, i think, did work on this a couple weeks ago and outlined this exact move so, well on him. Eqix is interesting. Yes, it has a great move, but pull up a longerterm chart. Look at the huge drop this stock had. So, what are we talking about here is this the beginning of something . Or is this just a bounce off an oversold condition now, as i look at it, you know, maybe have a little bit of a double bottom, but this is still a very expensive stock that probably found itself in an oversold condition like many of the stocks in that same world. Im not saying you fade this, but you better look closely at what youre buying the back story to that drop, it was the target of a report questioning the accounting there was an investigation opened, they said in the Earnings Release that the investigation is now closed. So, theres a lot of the internal investigation is closed yes but that caused a lot of Short Covering to happen in todays session. I have no i have no skin in the game. You did emphasize internal versus external. The difference, when youre looking at stuff like this and the people ma write reports like that, they do their work. They think theres an accounting irregularity, youre right, Short Interest grew. Its still not back where it was, it was over 900 when that report came out. I would not compare those two companies, ever, two different animals there for sure for sure. And also, you make a point, its the biggest oneday move since 2020, its all the same price as it is in 2020. So, just back to where you were four years ago yeah, amazons action is different. A strong move that gets you to a new alltime high, having been in a range, is a much more important thing than a strong move after having sold off a lot. Right but you amazon, so, if you go back to that alltime high at the end of 2021, were right there, right and talk about a v on a chart. Thats about as easy to spell out as you can i think the aws story is part of why this is going higher but whats underappreciated is the profitability in the retail business, and theres actually margin to pull, and this is something that weve talked about. Do they want to be profitable . Are they going to try to squeeze profits out of there all right theres a lot more fast money to come. Heres whats coming up next. Did netflix just win the streaming wars well ask an Entertainment Industry legend that question and much more as we dive into a groundbreaking tieup that could reshape the entire streaming landscape. Plus, roblox wrecked shares of the Online Gaming platform reeling as players pull back can the company get engagement back on track . Well debate right after this. Youre watching fast money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Were back right after this. Sandals jamaica sale is now on with rates from 199 per person per night. Visit sandals. Com or call 1800sandals switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. Take full control of your brand with your own custom store. Scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. And sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. A lot more. Take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify. Welcome back to fast money. Big buzz kill for Online Gaming fans roblox sinking 22 today for its secondworst day ever. This after the video game developer slashed guidance roblox sees fullyear bookings around 4 billion, which is down from its previous guidance of 4. 14 billion, on the low end. Daily active users on the platform jumped 17 to more than 77 million theyre not spending as much things are normalizing p people would spend hours and lots during the pandemic not good, i mean, listen daily active users up 17 year over year. Hours engaged up 15 year over year thats good until you look at the valuation. They have to do a lot better than that to justify this. And if you look, this was everybodys darling, i think, in 21 to 22 this thing has flatlined for three years. Its gone up and down along the way, but this is a nowhere stock to me. I give management some credit here, because their trends arent terrible, and they choose to be very conservative on this guide. The volatility on the stock, carters probably got a view this has traded in 100 increments, you know, over the last three years, and it once behaved as a high multiple stocks, as all behaved after the fed started to high and went into that cycle. But this stock has really just been trapped into a sideways move do you have a view . So, theres there are trading vehicles and this probably comes into that, and then there are investments if you are trades at 30 and your ipo was 45, below your ipo, what is it . So, three years later, everything youve done is negative, i would call that a trading vehicle at best. Always has a large move on earnings day, as we know Online Gaming, they should switch to onfline gamblgambling stocks finishing in the green today. The dow jumping more than 330 points to lock in a sevenday winning streak the s p rising half a percent and the nasdaq up a quarter percent. Goldman sachs now riding a sevenday winning streak the big bank gaining 7 along the way. Plus, a triple dose of afterhours action, dropbox, unity software, sweetgreen all on the move after reporting results. Goldman sachs, guy, got to go to you. Good for david solomon, who has been under the spotlight for quite some time. During his tenure d. J. Sol, please. When the stock is on an upswing, hes d. J. Sol he can be allowed to dj excellent point hes made some mistakes, hes the first to admit it, but theyve pivoted to certain things at the right time and the stock has done extraordinarily well and probably going to continue this trajectory how does it look relative to other banks . Well, relative to morgan stanley, it sure looks good. The only question is, if i had this and was profiting, i think i would sell calls or put other hedging strategy great move getting out of the Consumer Lending business. Focusing more on what theyre really good at pick up in m a, the calendar sweetgreen, the consumers under pressure, are we paying 20 bucks for a salad . Are we paying seven bucks for a latte . Not anymore i mean, i just i see its up and i see the trends are decent, but i question yeah. All right, coming up, utilities quietly climbing to more than 52week highs, but there isnt a lot of agreement on where theyre going next tim and carter set for a fast money faceoff thats next. Plus, are the streaming wars over well sit down with an industry stud to talk the battle for the bundle right after the break missed a moment of fast . Catch us any time on the go. Follow the fast money podcast. Were back right after this. what took you so long . Im sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. You get the sauce i like . Of course youre the man i wish. The future isnt scary. Not investing in it is. Nasdaq100 innovators. One etf. Before investing, carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com welcome back to fast money. Shares of warner brother is discovery rising 3 today. The media giant reporting growth in its streaming business, though it posted a bigger than expected loss for the first quarter. Revenues coming in soft. The Earnings Report coming off disney and wbd bundling their offerings. The package will be available this summer. For more on the streaming space, lets bring in tom rogers. Executive chairman at orbit gaming and entertainment tom, great to see you, particularly in person welcome. Thanks for having me. So, for a long time, weve been saying that netflix is the winning of the streaming wars, so, this week, all the Earnings Reports, they may prove that who can be number two, though . Well, thats a great question, but i think the disney Earnings Report showed that disney really hit a milestone that takes away a lot of the skepticism i have had about this really . You know ive been cynical about disney and rightly so. Always saying, hey, dont just look at the sub growth on streaming, think about the linear business and its decline, but what happened, and no analyst really pointed to this, which was surprising to me, for the first time, can you see that the revenues of its streaming business are now as big as its traditional tv linear business they have kind of hit equilibrium. Run rate, 25 billion in revenue just about, on the streaming side now, obviously they have margin issues and profitability to prove, and the entertainment piece is disney and hulu did it profitability, but thats the kind of scale you need to be able to show that the streaming growth can make up for the whole on the linear side of the equation, which is going to continue to be dug deeper. So, when you say that the Earnings Report changed how negative youve been, how do you feel about disney now . Do you feel good about them . Theyre on the right path . They can make this work . Well, they got a lot of challenges still hulu is a problem child, no doubt. Its subs have kind of stalled. Amazingly, even though its the grand daddy of adtier streaming, its advertising actually designed, and its done so for several quarters, which is a bit perplexing. But disney, when you take away the duplication of espn , disney and hulu, has 77 million unique users in the United States, which is about what netflix has, so, if you believe that netflix is going to be in just about all streaming homes, youd have to put amazon in there, too, because so many people get it for free now, if you take the ad tier disney, with those kinds of numbers, really looks like it has a claim for three. And what hasnt budged, it doesnt look like consumers are taking more on average than four streaming services so, if three slots are taken, that really creates a lot of competition about who is going to be in there for number four if you look five years out, all these companies will probably going to make it, but the near term transition, which is really hard for these Public Companies to face, really looks tough, and that fourth spot is the one that really creates all kinds of issues for the other streamers so, you mentioned the granddaddy, i mean, you being the godfather, and youre playing the role of kind of what we do here, your call on disney is particularly interesting, given where the Analyst Community was very negative. So, lets put you in your analyst chair and ask you, back on the one that youve loved the story at netflix, the drivers now are what Free Cash Flow could be, you know, you could have Free Cash Flow percentage north of 20 you have a dynamic here where they have pricing power. Whats the driver to the multiple, do you see we know theyve won theyve won theyve won the battles and the war so far well, i think that netflix, which, not long ago, people were saying, hey, this thing will never generate cash flow, as you say, is generating a lot of cash flow, and its margins are increasing, and they just upped their guidance on their margins. So, its in a category by itself i always say the crown as a program may be over, but its been crowned the most successful Media Company and it will continue and the international story, i think, is the one to watch they have 270 million subs theyre in 190 countries they got a lot of running room internationally to grow. They have a unique Programming Development opportunity relative to the others, in terms of the amount of local programming in other countries that they do that theyve been able to import to the United States and elsewhere, and make that successful on a global basis and i think that formula has a lot of running room, not to mention theyre growing in ad tier and the ad business now is very small, but that has real potential, as well folklore suggests the fountain of youth is not a clear th thing, but it is he looks younger than you do. Well, its a low bar. Id rather be known as the guy as opposed to hes the godfather. You talk about you talk about the godfather, i dont call my youngest grandchild by his name, i call him seymour and that is true lucky guy so heres the question to you. They report on netflix, april 18th no longer going to give quarter lie guidance for subs in 2025. Stocks down 13 they obviously probably knew that was going to happen was that the right move, focusing on revenue . I dont get that move i mean, if youre an advertiser in japan, youre an advertising in europe, youre going to sit there and say, you dont have to tell me how many homes youre in, im sorry, i dont need to know that. If youre pushing your ad business, youre going to toll the advertisers how many homes you reach. They need to know that number. Its all about reaching scale. So, that number is going to come out, and i really didnt get that at all. I think, you know, whats crazy about trading these media stocks on the basis of earnings, you know, netflix was down 10 or more on that, disney was down 10 . These are two companies that i think demonstrated with the earnings announcements how theyre strong, improved narrative going forward, yet, they have major declines paramount has been going up lately, when its in huge distress warner brothers, which, i think goes down every day real weakness today with its earnings, with a lot of problems hanging over its head. Trading on these earnings announcements with these media companies, i think do at your own risk tom, thank you for coming by. Thank you for having me which looks better, carter . Netflix or disney . One is a very weak stock thats trying to recover, netflix is a very strong stock, but the importance thing, so many stocks in the market have now gone back and exceeded their 2021 highs netflix has still not made a new alltime high. That was 700 700 the stock is at 612 higher, but for now, we have it as a strangle, and thats a different subject. Its amazing how netflix keeps finding another way to generate revenue, as tom was talking about. Live sports is the next big move they have a huge fight coming up in dallas with mike tyson. Thats the next iteration, how people are viewing is that going to be a sport its actually sanctioned now, so sports entertainment. Yes thank you thats right, melissa. Coming up, a rumble at this roundtable utilities leading the s p over the last month, and tim and carter are ready to go headtohead over what to do next with the group. You wont want to miss the studio b brawl next. Plus, teslas struggles continue why danny is doubling down, when fast money returns ga, the advanced form of dry agerelated macular degeneration, can irreversibly damage your vision. It can progress faster than you think. When ga threatens your eyes, take a stand. Slow ga with syfovre. Syfovre is an eye injection that was proven to slow damaging lesion growth over 2 years with increasing effect over time. 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Com. grandpa im the richest guy in the world. man 1 i have time to give. man 2 i have people i can count on. grandma and a million stories to share. vo the key to being rich is knowing what counts. Welcome back to fast money. The xlu has been a hit recently, outpacing every other sector in the past month and closing today at its highest level since january 2023 but not everyone on this desk agrees as to where the sector is going next tim thinks the rally is just getting started. Carter says its time to take profits. Carter, lay out your case. So, we can go right to the charts this is a followup, sort of idea, judgment, from an april 2nd piece published for clientse not going. You can see where the xlu is in relation to its 150day moving average. Pull it back a little further and you can see where it is in relation to its 150day moving average. Every instance over the past ten years when its been this far above trend, some sort of mean reversion. So, the judgment is to trim longs to reduce exposure now, when its starting to become favorable on the street. Tim and that makes sense, because i im going to think i hear actually an ultimately a bullish bounce coming out of carter a couple of weeks after we pull back the bigger story for utilities, they were oversold from september of 22 to september of 23 on the intensity of the rates move, and there was some question about whether a lot of these companies had a balance street structure, but even a cost structure that worked were now in a place where people understand theres some dynamics that mean power demand is going hugher. Weve had a utilities world where it was always about supply and demand was kind of sideways to upwards youve all been hearing this, maybe you have been playing the demand, the data center around a. I. , and this whole dynamic putting possibly a 10 additional demand on Energy Prices by 2030 thats massive massive at a time when transportation, ev, even nuclear the trends around nuclear, its all interrelated i own utilities on a multiyear play i think theyre underowned i think the profitability and the Free Cash Flow of the next era, which was beaten up especially in 22 you make the best point of all about, you talk about, do you know that utilities total return and the s p 500 total return are dead even for 24 years . Really . It goes to show on a longterm basis, you always want to have yield as part of your portfolio. Didnt you promise, like, an allout, dragout we were going to be throwing each other down. Correct me if im wrong a couple gentlemen this sector trades relative to yields, tenyear yields tims point, i think the point youre making, i think its a stock picker thats a stock pickers group, not just about owning the xlu. Next year, 15 of the xlu a huge downdraft they reported in the middle of april. If you think the xlu is going up, to some extent, you have to think yields are going lower its also a valuation play, as well im in the tim camp. Coming up, danny is going to lay out his favorite short play. Why he thinks this already struggling name could still lose more than 70 of its value thats next. More fast money in two welcome back teslas charge continuing to get drained, down a percent and a half for a Third Straight day, in the red the company has removed 3,400 job listings from its site recently only three positions are currently posted the stock is down 6 already this month danny here sticking with his short call on the stock after calling for it to head to 50 here on our show last november so how do you feel about it now . For someone who cares so much about the human race, he is firing a lot of humans at this moment and everything is kind of falling apart in their core business hes pointing everybody to robotaxis and a. I. And autonomy at the same time, the doj is now, reuters reporting, is, you know, is investigating this for wire fraud, because hes been selling a product that doesnt exist. So, we have august 8th, this unveiling of robotaxi day before that, going to be the wrote. Shareholders are probably going to garant him 56 million in buybacks. Bil wayve, they are using autonomy right now for driving in cities. I dont think people paid attention enough im invested in a fund compounded that has an investment, they were there early, seven years ago, so, ive been up on the story for a long time people need to see the more time that goes by here, and their core business is coming under pressure, i think this move to own it for robotaxis and a. I. Is going to fade over time 150 billion market cap at 50 bucks seems like a reasonable valuation. You are still short still short looking for it to head to 50. Yeah. We have news on openai. Pippa stevens . They are planning to announce its Google Search competitor on monday that is according to a report from reuters, citing two sources familiar with the matter now, this,of course, would raise the stake in its competition with the search king google so, once again, openai planning to announce its Google Search competitor, according to reuters. All right, pippa, thank you up next, final trades. Ging their and payroll. Why would you think mere humans deserve to do their own payroll . Because their livelihoods depend on it . Because they have bills to pay . Hear me now, paycom return the world of hr and payroll to its rightful place of chaos or face a tsunami of unnecessary the likes of which you have never seen final trade time tim . Next era. Biggest position in the xle with a lot of data center exposure. Carter . Deere and company, better known as john deere. Danny so nice to have you here long flutter. Flut earnings next week guy never said that to me just saying. Nice to have you. Make me feel good the rangers are in carolina tonight. Ill be locked in. And the knicks, basically, you know, its a gritty team, as you know and you were watching the game last night do you have a final trade, guy yes, i do. Pan american silver. As thank you for watching ft. Mad money starts right now. Mad money starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but to explain so call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me jimcramer even on a geedecent day like to when the dow gained 33