Transcripts For CSPAN Key Capitol Hill Hearings 20240622

National captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2015] things are winding down here at the press club. If you missed any of the discussion of discussion with the chancellor at unc, you can find it online at cspan. Org. The herald newspaper today reporting that Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell thinks the senate could pass along stalled Cyber Security bill before leaving for august recess, but that it will take cooperation. Could see a procedural vote to move forward on that measure tomorrow. Party lunchesin right now. You can catch the White House Briefing on cspan2. And of course, the senate with a gavel back in. More live coverage is coming up in about one hour, talking about the future of afghanistan with general John Campbell, the general of Operation Resolute support starting at 3 00 eastern time. Throughout the month we are looking back at the cities we visited this year their histories and cultural life. Tonight a look at austin, texas. Tonight at 8 00 a discussion on the threat of ice. Posted by the Aspen Institute with retired general john allen. Here is a look. Isis is losing. Theirou listen closely to tactical communications, they have got problems with morale right now. Not long after they burned captain [indiscernible] of isil foreign fighters rebelled against that kind of brutality and were summarily executed. By the central element. There was the. Atime within kobani, moment in the campaign where it was said we would lose that, but they impaled themselves on terrified about being sent there because they knew that there was only one outcome. Recent activities along the border in syria have led to other, similar messages. There are many places within the dutch infrastructure where the morale is not good. As we begin to strangle the defenses and finances, it becomes more difficult for them to sustain their operations and pay their fighters. General allen, currently the special president ial envoy for the Global Coalition to counter isis. You can watch that entire conversation tonight at 8 00 eastern time. Also from the aspen forum a discussion about a nuclear iran from the former acting cia director, john mclaughlin, and panel of experts to recently held an Agreement Panel on what an agreement might hold. Good afternoon. My name is claire york and im a phd student in the War Studies Department at Kings College in london, and i am also a 2015 aspirin Security Firms caller aspen Security Firm scholar. This month, we witnessed the agreement of a deal between the p5 plus one and iran on Irans Nuclear capabilities, however, many questions remain. Is it a historic agreement that sets the term, and will it strain nuclear ambitions, but what does it mean for the region more broadly . This panel will address the threat of a nuclear iran. It will assess how best to cancel them and how this deal already constrains our mission. Moderating this session is michael probably, probably, a politico senior correspondent. Besides joining politico, michael was chief Foreign Affairs correspondent with time magazine. He is reported from more than a dozen company countries, including iraq, egypt, mexico, saudi arabia, turkey, lebanon, and ukraine were things are often busy from time to time. Michael thank you so much for coming. I am glad to see a good turnout. This is going to be a great panel and needless to say, this is a topic on everyones minds. We are going to go little bit beyond some of the things you have been hearing for the last 10 days and try to look forward at what the iran deal means for the u. S. , iran, and the region. We will talk a little bit about the mechanics of the deal and if people want to ask about that, that is fine. For this panel, we will not spend too much time on centrifuge count and 24 days. Starting on my left is john mclaughlin, former Deputy Director and acting director of the cia. Next to him is matthew spence, who recently departed the pentagon where he was Deputy Assistant secretary and a special assistant to the president , advisor to two National Security advisers. Alan spent 25 years in government, including as vice chair of the intelligence council. John, let me start with you. Secretary kerry got quite a grilling from committee, in which, among other things he was told he had been fleeced, bamboozled, and was likened to a hotel guest who left nothing left with nothing but the hotel robe on his back. Do you agree . Give us your take on the deal. John i would say, leaving aside all the details about centrifuges and percentages of enrichment material, we can come back to that. I would say this deal is not as bad a deal as the critics think and it is not as good a deal as we would like. I think on the whole that it is better to have this deal than to not have a deal. And i can see it unfolding in about three different scenarios. Anyone who tells you they know exactly where this is going to go in todays middle east is delusional. We can come back to the scenarios later, but i would leave it at that, it is better to have this deal than not. Host ellen, we will get to you. Give me your initial take on the deal and im going to follow up with something you wrote about what the deal could become. Just measuring the agreement for what it is. Ellen i think it is a remarkable diplomatic achievement. I think the iranians still has some hard choices to make of whether they will comply as fully as the agreement obliges them to do, but i look at it through the prism of, does it change the dynamics for Regional Security . I think once we get past this position of theory alex their tricks and drama, and people have an emotional reaction as to when as to whether they trust the iranians are not, i think this is a net positive. Let me follow up from the getgo, because you had a pretty ambitious take on what it could become. You said this deal is a great moment of opportunity for the arab world, israel as a silent partner, to strike a deal with iran. Can you explain what you mean by that . Can we really expect more arab cooperation . The agreement in a way is a narrow Technical Agreement on only some of the rons irans behavior that we found problematic and most harmful to american interest. We would have security obligations and the need to respond if iran went further along the path of becoming a Nuclear Weapons capable state. The countries in the region were telling us it was an existential threat for them. We then jinned up a very high Risk Strategy with our u. N. Partners and got to the finish line on a plan that does limit irans, and virtually prevents them from becoming a Nuclear Weapon state for at least a decade to a decade and a half. It is still a little bit confusing to me, and as you say, the other reasons why there is turmoil and violent and distrust in the region are clearly creating an environment where people are only looking at the downsides of the agreement. They are not looking into potential up sites. What i was trying to do in april, when we look out over the horizon, how might this change regional relations . I think arabs should see a net security benefit to them to know that there is not another Nuclear Weapons state in the region, but it will be a. Of adjustment. It is not the first a period of adjustment. It is not the first time the United States has tried to establish a new modus operandi. How they talk about the agreement and their longterm relations with iran. Met, you were on matt, you were on the inside as this in folded. Did you think the deal would go through russian mark were you surprised go through . Were you surprised and what should we be thinking about . Matt the one conclusion, had the negotiations been in aspen instead of switzerland they would still be going on because no one would have wanted to leave. It is a far better place to talk about these hard issues. The way i think about it, i was pessimistic about whether a deal would happen because i was not sure if the iranians would get to the place they needed to be. If you look at the tremendous amount of pressure they were under, manifested by the election of the president which showed the dissatisfaction of where the country was going, they were definitely under pressure. It was unclear if internally test internally iran could reach a place. I am thinking about the adage that this is really at the very most, the end of the beginning and only got. The two things im most concerned about, verification and inspection, and what happens if there is cheating. Second, recognizing that any arms control agreement is just dealing with that, arms control, but the nuclear piece is just one part of broader issues of the ron irans behavior in the area. How do we deal with their other bad behavior and how do we think about a strategy past the Nuclear Agreement . Dealing with a whole other range of things that iran is trying to do. I want to go away from that and talk about it in more detail. I want to talk about events this week. Ash carter just visiting netanyahu and then he went to riyadh. What do you think those conversations were like, and what could at carter be telling the israelis and saudis that they have not heard 50 times . Matt i think probably i have been there 30 times in the last few years, and in a sense, something similar to what they have heard before but it is important that they keep hearing it because it has the advantage of being true. The United States knows that you ron more than an arms control issue. Iran has regional hegemonic interests. They have the largest conventional military in the region and a huge amount of asymmetric threats. When all this means is that the United States is not going anywhere just because a deal has signed. In some cases, even though i think the likelihood of war has decreased and the likelihood iran will get a Nuclear Weapon has rapidly declined, americas commitment is still there. The message to israel and the saudis, the United States will have an enormous commitment in the area. We have 34,000 American Forces stationed in the reason, over 10,000 deployed troops, some of the most advanced aircrafts, missiles, and technology that that region and the world has ever known. That is not going anywhere and because of that, theres a huge amount of concrete manifestation of americas commitment to resisting the range of the rons irans behavior. We will be there to deter them from doing bad things. John, talk if you would about the role of the Intelligence Community. Two different types of intelligence that will be important. One is the kind of close monitoring of iranian facilities and suspected facilities, and the question of verification, will we catch them if they try to cheat. The other is an analysis about iranian domestic politics and what its intentions are. Do we really have visibility into what direction the country is headed . Why dont you take on the first question and talk to the extent that you can about the role the Intelligence Community will have in backstopping this deal in a way that the administration cannot talk about in a lot of public detail . John let me just elaborate on one point that that made. I find that israeli opinion is a little more very gated on this issue than one might think. As far as i can tell, those israelis think this is not a good deal they do not all speak of it quite as harshly as you netanyahu does. They see a shortterm advantage and the basic fact is that iran will be less nuclear, after a 90 day transition. The deal does not really take effect for a while yet, but it will be nice less Nuclear Capable than they were. They were two to three months away from a bomb. They will be a year away from a bomb if the steps occur. He is really concern is more about the longerterm and we can talk about that, because at the end of 15 years, the game is up. On your question, i think what we will see here is a kind of and let me make clear, i am not speaking for the Intelligence Community so im not giving away something that i should not, but i probably will because it is hard not to hear it hard not to. Please do. John i think you will see a synergy between the technology the intelligence world and technology. Intelligence will be looking very carefully at iranian behavior, and we are pretty good at this, to detect suspicious activity or cheating. I would remind everyone that in 2002, that is exactly what we detected in the case of north korea, which had an agreement with the United States made in 1994 to stop their Nuclear Activity. We detected they were preparing to acquire the materials for a uranium enrichment path. They have been using plutonium. I think intelligence will be very good at this. I want to say a few words about the iaea. They are pretty good. Theyre probably undermanned for this job at this time, but they have a record and they are going to be, by virtue of iran at some point in the next three months, accepting what is called the Additional Protocol to the nonproliferation treaty, they will have authority to be much more intrusive in what they do in iran that they have been now, which is something that israelis have noted to me that has an advantage. There will be more intrusive monitoring. If you look at, even the issue here is where the problem will come on that side. The first time we detect some sort of suspicious activity somewhere, and iran does not want us to look their there, there is an elaborate procedure that can stretch out over 24 days of negotiation about whether we can look, and everyone is assuming that during that period of time they would sanitize that site. I want to say the iaea has pretty good records of that sort of thing. There are instances in both iran and syria where they have gone in after israel had bombed a suspected nuclear facility, and managed still to determine that Nuclear Activity had been underway, largely because what they do is take miniscule squab swabs of various things that could be suspected to be nuclear associated. They did this in iran when they were previously lying to us about an electrical factory that was also nuclear related. The bottom line here is, it all works as it is supposed to work, the intelligence and inspection part of this i think will be pretty effective. But i also suspect that is the first place where it can break down. Because of iranian objections to somewhere we want to go. One of the most worrisome aspects of the iran suspected program was that a place, where it was thought that they were doing conventional explosive testing with a substitute for nuclear testing, and they have not allowed us to go there. In the agreement it says very little, other that there will be a separate arrangement between the iaea and iran. There are a lot of negotiations. A separate agreement has become a point of contention in congress. Ellen intelligence coverage of the iran issues may shift a bit in the good direction. As you all know, think about capabilities and intentions. At least on the softer human side, there are at least some relationships. We have been able to establish some kind of human contact with at least some of the key players in iran. Were not anywhere close to the Supreme Leader, we do not know what happens in the inner sanctums, but at least there are now channels that i think will be a breath of relief after so many decades where we were following iran remotely and knew that we could follow large movements of military forces, but we really felt handicapped at not knowing enough about the internal politics. We all know this agreement was negotiated by the good guys of the ron, if you want to believe that, the president and foreign minister, but there is a whole other part of the iranian system that probably takes a whole another view. I am not suggesting that the time secretary kerry has spent that somehow that is sufficient, but it is a big improvement on what we have had. I think intelligence people are certainly aware of what others are aware of. Those who visited a ron and spent a lot of time there. There is nothing in this agreement that guarantees a transformation in iran. Having said that, iran has competing power centers, it has a quasidemocracy. 40 of the University Graduates are women. It is still very repressive at the top, that we saw as recently as 2009, a Reform Movement the got squashed but hovers the need the surface. And i think the election of rouhani, he was not supposed to win. The expedient council determines who gets to run. In the last go around, they did not even let ross on johnny run r afsanjani run. Rouhani was the one person who is thought to be a little offcenter in terms of the regime, and he won, which tells us there is some sort of yearning there for engagement with the outside world. That being said, those of the top still call the shots so my point is, there are competing power centers. And if this agreement goes well, what do i mean by goes well . If rouhani gets what he was bargaining for, sanctions relief, which can also be seen as a detriment, but if he gets sanctions relief, and the parliamentary election i would expect his faction to have some traction and maybe gain some votes. What does that mean . Maybe the balance in their Parliament Starts to shift a little bit. These are gossamer concepts but it is kind of what you are working with. Matt, do you think that is too optimistic . For my experience, people in the pentagon take a dimmer view on these. Do you want to jump in . Matt if i was doing my job right at the pentagon, no one would ever accuse me of being an optimist. I would say i agree with what ellen and john have said, we need to understand the potential impact of having so many contacts between the United States and iran. The United States communicated with iran through the swiss protected power, the u. N. , and occasional, highlevel letters. Now you have senior u. S. Diplomats talking on their cell phones, spending weeks at a time having intense negotiations. Those types of things are not going to change interests in international conflict, but the fact that we do not have that provides channels to test issues and see if there are channels we can talk through. We should not underestimate the possibility that we are talking to them at all. With the iranians, more openness is only in our interest, even if we recognize we are not speaking to the full spectrum. Is that enough . You had some interesting thoughts that i read about our history of misjudging iran, so we do not really see the Islamic Revolution coming. We continually overestimated the influence and promise of the moderates and in burned by it several times in the past decade. Is this time different . Do you think these talks really give us reason to think it is different, or is there more we should be doing . Do we need to recognize our limitations . How do you think about it . Ellen when the revolution came and there was after actions in the 1970s and 1980s, there was a painful acknowledgment that we let the shaw tell us we could not talk to the opposition in iran. Very hard in a country that went from authoritarianism to this very messy and all attractive revolution. There was a period in transition or the United States was the most powerful foreign power. We were involved in every aspect of iranian life, and they were our great partner and friend in the region along with saudi arabia and israel. Think how much has changed. The recognition that even with a large embassy, we had censored ourselves a bit because of that special relationship and did not deeply understand the society. This is, i think, an ongoing challenge for analysts and democratic countries around the world of not just ours, but i think our European Partners probably face some of the same dilemmas, that you are always balancing how much you want to get along with the incumbent regime, and how you want to be making sure you are scanning the horizon for what might change and who are the other actors, and who are some of the rising voices in this country question mark we sometimes center ourselves, sometimes we have no access. I am not suggesting that the switch has moved 180 degrees. This will be a very gradual, incremental process. In this period, during these negotiations, the state department and other parts of our publicprivate world have been able to open the aperture for Civil Society exchanges. There are some Amazing Things going on at the nongovernment level between the United States and iran. Berkeley enchiladas university have an exchange, but it is all nongovernmental. There are exchanges on environmental issues. There are joint projects on teaching the iranians about urban resilience because they are earthquake prone and have some of the same Natural Disaster issues that we have. We are trying, which is why i think we want to go back to, even though the president was very scrupulous in saying this deal was only about the nuclear activities, we made no promises, and it was not contingent, the iranians may have wanted that more comprehensive approach but we took a very technocratic approach. I think there is a bigger box in which this is happening and that is beginning a process of trying to engage more openly with iranians for the longterm, whether the revolution survives or whether eventually it is replaced by a more open regime. Anecdotally, this is probably a small part of it, but i have seen journalists getting to know each other on twitter and sharing notes and starting relationships so maybe there is a little bit of twitter diplomacy happening. Ellen lets acknowledge that the journalists who go to iran are at high risk. Having said all that, i think about the fact that most, if not all of irans neighbors who are in real proximity to them, for lack of a better phrase phrase think this is crazy talk and naive. Despite that, i was surprised to see Ashton Carter say that king solomon had expressed his support for the nuclear deal. This comes after a year and a half or more of the saudis railing against it and saying it is crazy. So first of all, im surprised to hear the reaction. And i want to talk about more specifically some things were doing to reassure the saudis. What was your reaction to that . Mr. Mclaughlan they were never so hard up against a deal that they threw down a red light and we couldnt do this. Mr. Spence they were never so hard up against a deal that they threw down a red light and we couldnt do this. If theres a deal, we heard resources are stressed, we heard about the pivot to asia, are you really going to be here if the deal is done . I think they are savvy to realize the deal that happened right now, the question is what is next. The what is next is the most important thing happening right now. Everyone talks about president obama gathering the leader of the gcc states in camp david talk about with that means. There is an effort that goes well past year before, or 18 months and two years before, which i remember working a lot on, about what can we do to build up the capabilities of the gcc, and what can we do to assure them they can deal with the threat . The threat they worked on were Cyber Security, Maritime Security and the closure of the strata vermouth, and air and missile defense. All of those things that iran poses a threat. We need to intensify efforts and use the deal is an opportunity to get the gcc countries to work more closely together because all of those threats are reflected action issues. No one country can deal with them at one time. You can try and find an opportunity to bring about some of the cooperation that has been incredibly hard to do since the founding of the gcc a long time ago. Mr. Crowley did you want to chime in quickly . Ms. Laipson i think the u. S. Has made a lot of progress with the gcc. The invitation to come to camp david made a difference. Within the gcc you have different approaches to iran. The United Arab Emirates is a Major Trading partner, theres a Person Community that lives there. You have a spectrum of views on the sectarian sunni shia problem, and on dealing with iran in general. If you give it the high level of security and deterrence, i agree. When it comes to economic interaction with iran, they have different policies. Mr. Crowley john were you going to mr. Mclaughlan go ahead. Mr. Crowley let me ask about how we strike the balance. What matters suggesting us as a result of this deal, in some degree you have to flex more muscle in the region. We have to not only reassure allies like the saudis, but demonstrate to the iranians that they can have the run of the place. How do you find a balance between doing that without stumbling into a confrontation that blows of a nuclear deal, blows up whatever fledgling relationship we might have . Do you think we can walk that line . Mr. Mclaughlan its going to be hard. One way to get out that question is to say remember, these negotiations and been going on since 2007 in one form or another. The middle east that we are seeing today is so dramatically different than the middle east we had in 2007. We have a middle east now that is in conflict on at least 45 dimensions. The persian arab, sunni shia, reformer versus traditionalist, terrorist versus regime. I can probably add fifth, terrorist versus terrorist. We have never seen that before. So the kind of task you are sketching out for the United States here is extraordinarily difficult. You could say that the middle east right now is experiencing Something Like the i dont know, that 40 years war in europe. Back in the 17th century. That was about religion, commerce, territory, and ultimately it was sorted out after all those years, 30 years. It may be that is what we are seeing in the middle east now. For the United States, almost anything we do is going to provoke and opposite reaction somewhere. I think were going to have to handle this very carefully. In the inspection process, there are going to be disputes. We talking about this as if it is a done deal. The delicacy here is going to appear sometime in the next 90 days. For example, most people i dont think realize that iran still has to work out with the iaea a kind of roadmap for how the iaea will behave and what it will have access to, and how inspections will actually work. That is going to be contentious. Inevitably, we going to want to look at something they dont want us to look at. At that point, i think we have reached the crunch point. Because irans view, which they have expressed, is if we back away from this agreement, then all bets are off with them. They start enriching again. And they quickly become, i think, a Nuclear Threshold state again. Were going to have to calibrate all of this. Mr. Crowley what if things go off the rails and there is talk about a military option . You warned in 2012 u. S. Strike on iran would be a very bad option. Since then, the military has this massive ordnance penetrator, 15 ton weapon that can probably, possibly, some debate, hit other underground sites. Does that change the way you feel about it . Mr. Crowley you can mr. Mclaughlan you can do it surgically, if by that you dont have to followup with 20,000 troops. Here is my first caution about that. When you look at the history of warfare, one thing stands out above everything else. When you inflict violence, you dont know where it is going. You dont. You might think you do, but you dont. So thats the first thing. If we do that, we had better prepare very carefully for option b, option c, option d. So that we have some idea where this could go, what scenarios could come out of it. Second, military strike would do functionally exactly what this agreement is doing. It wouldnt for all time destroy the nuclear capability, it would delay it. In this agreement, by the way, what it does everything but bias time. Thats all it does. If you believe that tend to 15 years from now, assuming the iranians follow the rules and play the agreement out, they would then have the capacity, as the president having knowledge, to become a nuclear state. We bought that time. Given the past for and just guest out of the middle east, thats not a bad thing. We dont know where the middle east is going to settle out. We talk about the saudis and for example, im not sure why king solomon is saying what he is saying. But they are in a kind of funny situation now because our very close relationship with saudi arabia, egypt, and the closer relationship with israel postdates the fall of the shop. Prior to that, iran was her big partner in the region. Now the saudis and the egyptians in particular must be looking at this whole arrangement and saying is there a tectonic shift occurring here, potentially, in which our relationship with the United States, our overall positioning in the middle east is less than it is . If we look ahead here, if you were going to cite the certainties, i was a one certainty out of this is iran is going to become more powerful, for better or for worse. Theyre going to become more powerful in the region. Either with this agreement, without it. But particularly with it. Mr. Crowley matt, what is that going to mean . I know you spend a lot of time looking at these scenarios. What are couple of the friction points we have to be careful of . Weve already had a little bit of tension in the last few months to read is that going to escalate . Mr. Spence i agree with what john said. Iran will have an increasing population, and increasing youth population, even if you hold a sign nuclear issue, this is not a disarmament agreements. This is iran is still growing in the region. The thing you talked about is, i think the Major Concerns are what they can do with Maritime Security, but they can do with cyber issues and other asymmetric issues. I. R. Number being on an aircraft carrier, going through the strait of her moves and seeing these small iranian fast boats, which are both the look like they could have contraband were a waters gear behind them, or potentially something to be very deadly to ships going through. Those of the types of things that iran still will have that we need to be very wary about what they are doing. Its not irans issue to shut down the streets right now because of oil doesnt flow, its bad for them particularly now is there getting back on the market as much for us. The fact that they can have that threat and that uncertainty, and were still not clear about the decisionmaking of who controls what within iran, those of the issues are think we really need to be mr. Mclaughlan let me give you an assessment from an israeli former Intelligence Officer. This is what i agree with. It also will perhaps puncture the impression that ive given that im a starry eyed optimist about all this. I do see potential for good things coming from it, but this former Intelligence Officer from a very senior, sees it this way. Three scenarios, i will mention them in terms of the least likely first. And the most likely last. First scenario, transformation. In other words, what i think the administration is hoping, and to degree, betting on is what all of us have talked about as a possibility, that is that iran, through all of these contacts, through the changing nature of that society, 60 of the people in a society have grown up since the revolution. A general disenchantment with the mullahs that exist, even though they still are allpowerful, transformation could occur. Its conceivable. Second scenario. Because of the north korea scenario. They play along for a while, follow the terms of the agreement a year or two, things are going well. Then they either break out of it, or they are caught cheating, and the whole thing breaks down. Thats essentially what happened with north korea in 2002. After an agreement in 1994. Cease their plutonium production. Scenario number three he calls it strategic patience on irans part. What does that mean . He says they play the game of. In his view, he says this is the most likely. They play the game with minor bumps, hiccups along the way. We get through the inspection process, they do what they are supposed to do, they hold their enrichment 3. 67 for 15 years, and in years 10 to 15, they have the opportunity to experiment with more sophisticated centrifuges. They play it out, and that your 15, they become they move them towards becoming a Nuclear Power. The operational implication of all of that is that even if i have the or he has the order of things wrong, we probably need to prepare in our operational planning and diplomacy for all three of those scenarios, if we want transformation, how do we help bring that about . If we want to avoid the north korean scenario, how do we do that . If they play it out and 15 years from now, what does that mean . We need to think all of those scenarios through. Mr. Crowley limit cut you off there. Edit people have a lot of questions. I invite someone who really doesnt like to deal to chime in here. I think theres been a little bit of optimism, in the green shirt there. Im gordon chang. There has been substantial evidence that the North Koreans have been sharing Nuclear Weapons technology with the iranians since perhaps the beginning of the century. And that means that in effect, iran could have this material in north korea and probably has plans for the North Koreans have developed for the devices themselves. The question is, how does that affect our ability to inspect this agreement, especially because many people have said that is the critical factor going forward. Mr. Spence the way i think about that would be, to take a step back and look at what you need to have for a deliverable Nuclear Weapon. Thats the biggest threat. You need enough nuclear material, you need to actually make a Nuclear Device that is testable and actually works and effective delivery message method, icbms or missiles. Those are three very difficult things to have. We are incredibly paranoid to make sure that we are looking at the shortest hole in a tent, to actually dont have any of them. The thing we need to realize is, iran needs to get all three. And once we have in this new world, where you have much more contact with iran, with iaea inspectors, as much harder for ron to do those types of things, whether theyre working secretly with the North Koreans or anyone else. Even if you get that knowledge, which, once its there, that knowledge exists and you can eliminate the knowledge to create Nuclear Weapons. The most we can do is try and stop and regular sleep regulate the behavior and make sure that even if we dont know what irans intentions are, we can make sure were not going to trust them to and do everything we can to crack down the behaviors. Thats the approach we need to take through this. As i look at the agreements, the same way i approached iran, it was distrust and verify. In no way did any of the behavior depend on trusting iran. He was using pressure to get them to the table, looking for opportunities, and along the way, doing everything we can to keep them honest because we dont really know what theyre going to do. Mr. Crowley anyone else want to chime in . Ms. Laipson we havent quite gotten to the broader perspective on nonproliferation. I think there is more the United States could do to delegitimize Nuclear Weapons. I think were going in the other direction again. We are revalidating that Nuclear Weapons are the mark of very advanced countries. I think there is doctrinal debates that happen inside United States, were watching in pakistan, india, and china increased their arsenals. I would say that we miss the opportunity to change the psychology of any aspirants to Nuclear Weapons. One other point is that some iranians, and are not suggesting that i believe everything they say, say that all along, we have not been listening. That irans goal is to be like japan. Which is to stop short of actually assembling or deploying Nuclear Weapons. But to demonstrate the technological ability so that only in extremist scenarios where they felt that their existence as a state was a risk, they would accelerate a program and go to the finish line. It took us a long time to trust japan. We are not ready to give iran that level, we dont have that level of confidence in iran. But i think we may be making some very glib assumptions that everybody in iran wanted to go all the way to a weapon, and that there is no internal constraints on them, in terms of going that far. Mr. Spence we conflate a nuclear iran, and a Nuclear Power rhonda Nuclear Weapon. Theres a difference between wanting Nuclear Power, and going through all of the talks to become a Nuclear Weapons state. I think for us, this is the opportunity to really test that. Thats what it is built around. And to make sure that we understand its not a homogenous view within the iranian population, its not a homogenous view of nothing or Nuclear Weapon. There are gradations. Mr. Crowley general hayden had a question, dont know where he is. There he is. Ok. Matt, i agree totally. The trying use that weaponization Delivery Systems and trying to explain the 2007 niv. If Ballistic Missiles are one of the critical pass coming going into negotiations with lisa quite publicly, they had to be included in any final agreements, and we took them off the table because of iranian insistence, how did they then enter back into negotiations during the last two weeks in vienna . And were not going to lift sanctions on the Ballistic Missile program in eight years or sooner, if the iranians meet certain conditions. Mr. Spence i was in the room during those parts of negotiations. The nature of the negotiation, and what you can get and what you cant, there is a maximalist addition the United States wants. We remain concerned about the bliss of Missile Program of course, regardless of theres an agreement or not. The way a look at this is without an agreement, iran can have an incentive to accelerate production of Ballistic Missiles and do much more. The fact that we are able to have some amount of reduction on that, at the same time, thats just in the terms of the agreement itself. I would say while the agreement itself is going on, the United States essentially has more insight into the program, even though we are not inspecting military sites, but just having the discussions with iaea. The other key part is, as you know, trying to increase the amount of integrated air missile defense, Ballistic Missile defense technology, and provide more of the technology to the region needs to proceed apace at exactly that same time. We need to see whats possible within the framework of sanctions, and what we can actually hold together with International Sanctions on that, and effectively see what is possible with the negotiated outcome. But while doing that, make sure were doing everything we can on the side come on the defensive side to prevent our own technology and make sure we can monitor and it was much as they are trying to do on the delivery side. Mr. Crowley i see eli lake, who i think we can count on to object. Eli lake the Supreme Leader of iran has issued a fatwa against Nuclear Weapons. As anyone seen it, and why hasnt this been published . Ms. Laipson i understand they submitted to the United Nations as a formal document, so the text exists. I just dont know whether anybody knows how to legally and politically accepted as a legitimate document that would have influenced the policy choices of other countries. He has done it, but most people say that he can also issue a fatwa to the contrary. I do think there is a discourse in iran that says Nuclear Weapons are on islamic. The iranians intermittently take that fatwa very seriously, and sometimes i think it doesnt quite make the threshold of being an important development. The fatwa exists. It was submitted i will try and find it for you. My understanding is it was submitted to the United Nations even before these negotiations reached a very active phase as to explain the position of iran on the nonproliferation treaty. Mr. Crowley unless either of you sees the fatwa, im going to take the next question. Im with the american bar association. I want to thank you for as always a very thoughtful panel. Two quick questions. The first is, what impact do you think this deal is going to have on the nonproliferation regime . A lot of people are saying the 15 years, given if you are correct, where ron stance that other entities will want to be more threshold like. And given the links of the leng of the agreement,th some recommend to their my the requirements to help monitor this over the next 15 years, maybe the creation of an executive and let us Later Committee the way we had in the helsinki accords, so we would have an Ongoing Group and expertise, a defense by it board talked about the lack of expertise we have. Im curious about how you feel about those points. Mr. Mclaughlan that would be a good idea. I would personally support the idea of a group like that, particularly a group composed of scientific knowledgeable people keeping their eye on the progress of this. On the nonproliferation regime, thats a hard one. I can see it cutting both ways. One positive thing about the npt with regard to iran, its a signatory. North korea quit, as you know. If they accept the Additional Protocol, and they stay in the npt regime, at 15 years, this particular agreement expires, but the npt membership does not. Nor do the privileges of the international, iaea, to inspect them and monitor, they dont expire. If they stay in the agreement. So part of what we have to do is monitor their appearance to the agreements very carefully. Now, if they shift to threshold status at 15 years, yes, others i think will want to do that. Although it is hard to peer into the future about the worth of Nuclear Technology 15 years from now. Right now, i would say why wouldnt iran want Nuclear Weapons . From the standpoint of their national interests. Countries look at what happened in part of the world, pakistan, and so forth. And now north korea has done three nuclear tests. And by all accounts, they are able to assemble 12, 15 Nuclear Devices, probably they can put one on a missile. And that has to make us a little more guarded and how we deal with north korea. People observe that. As will be a constant struggle, i think, over time. It will require more constancy of commitments and we have shown to limiting Nuclear Weapons. It has been a fad, almost. We make a few speeches and we convince conferences, and then we go back to whatever else were doing. Mr. Crowley time for a couple more. Right there. Pamela brown, fox news. I received a statement from a doctor, im think you mentioned pakistan. This is the statement personally i feel iranian leadership has very wisely and pragmatically save their country from bad situation. Call it a disaster, if you like. I would like to hear any personal reaction. Personally, i feel that the iranian leadership has very widely and pragmatically saved their country from a very bad situation. Call it a disaster, if you like. As is in response for me asking him about the p5 plus one. Mr. Mclaughlan i would have to assume that what he meant was, in the absence of an agreement like this, and in the presence of strong u. S. And israeli commitment to prevent them from having a Nuclear Weapon, that it was plausible prior to the agreement that a military operation might have been carried out here in. You asked if i still have the same opinion, i give you half an answer. I think one of the problems with the military operation is that apart from not knowing where its going to go, you would probably drive the iranian people together in support of the regime. I dont think you would create anything else. I think that is probably what he is talking about. Mr. Mclaughlan its a good thing for an airplane ride when you need some shut up. The last 50 pages are mostly names. The point i want to make is we sanctioned the hell out of them. The last 50 pages as lists of things we sanctioned. We sanctioned everything except maybe childrens toys, not even sure of that. That got them to the table. Interestingly, it didnt keep them from getting to within two to three months of a Nuclear Weapon. Mr. Crowley anyone else want to weigh in . Quests laura lauter, lotter. Hasnt the trading with the station on this . What would happen if the United States congress with a vetoproof majority rejected the deal . Essentially china, russia, and india have already begun lifting sanctions for all intensive purposes. We could thought resurrect the sanctions regime we are ready have, so what is congress thinking about what is next, because we cannot reinstate those things. I think you raise a really interesting point. I firmly believe in this agreement and think it makes the than 10tates safer now and picking generations to come. I also firmly believe we need to have robust and open debate about what this means. This an important part of National Security. Next, live to the brookings future offor afghanistan with general John Campbell, commander of Operation Resolute support here in washington, d. C. 10,000 uniformed personnel. This is an operation that is now nearing roughly its 14th year, although it is then renamed and now Operation Resolute support, an operation now only 10 the size it had been at its peak. 10,000 americans and a few thousand more nato troops. By way of a couple of points of background, we will generally and mattneral campbell sherman. In this particular fighting season i think you are aware most the hurricanes are doing most of the fighting. They are probably doing 98 of the fighting. One way is not just a number of troops where they have 330,000 between army and police, and and 14,000, but in casualties they are fighting extremely hard. Are toosualty levels high. We would like to see them the work. This is at a time when american fatalities a number in the singledigit. Perhaps four. This is a dramatic reduction for the role in the war even though it is quite important. The current plan of president obama is to reduce American Forces starting next spring. Although some of the Details Remain subject to reconsideration. What i would like to do now is we will proceed for about the next hour. General campbell is a very generous with his schedule. He is just in time for a few days. Were very lucky to have him. Very grateful. I want to remind you about the distinguished titles of these two gentlemen, and then ask a couple of questions of general campbell, a couple of matts. Then we will go to all of you. General John Campbell is a 1999 graduate of west point. Comes from a military family. And it has continued in subsequent generations as well. Inis now on his third tour afghanistan, the first as a kernel. He was in regional command east in 2010 and 2011. Suffering greatest violence along with regional demand south. And that time he lost almost 250 americans in that year, in that sector alone. There has clearly been dramatic change again in the u. S. Role in country. He was deputy chief of staff of the u. S. Army and a number of other positions, including serving in iraq. Matt sherman has also been at this for a long time. One of the most durable and resilient and remarkably gifted and committed american civilians to work in the war. He spent a number of years in iraq and afghanistan. I remember a conversation with him once when he told me one of the Favorite Book was called the forever wars. That was about five years ago. He is and now the political advisor to general campbell. I want to before i get into my questions, please join them all join me in welcoming them to brookings. [applause] general campbell thank you for time. Thank you for taking time to be here and show interest in afghanistan, and i would like to take the time to talk about a can of an and how i see it. I look forward to your restaurant. Minutes tobout 510 remarks but i would really like to go to dialogue. Otherwise i will ask a question. Ins is my third tour afghanistan. Every time ive been there asked and Security Forces continue to get better and better. They have challenges and issues in the past. We have worked on Close Air Support intelligence and logistics. Peschel operating forces. Again, i see them continue to progress and be very resilient. I talked about the number of casualties this year. It has been a very tough fighting season for all of afghanistan, both from a military side, and also, the number of civilian casualties gone on as well. I contribute most of them are caused by the taliban and other insurgents out there. I have a very Good Opportunity to see the afghan Security Forces from all different levels. As a kernel and then as a Major General in our general, my key leader engagements or battlefield engagement used to be cops. They see our circle dust soldiers as they interact with police. Working with the kabul in the ministry. The intel arm and National Security advisor. I am very honored to have that opportunity. Think they continue to progress. They have challenges is fighting season. Very tough on casualties as top about. Or is a lot of reasons for that. 80 plus Coalition Forces in the battlefield. Support kind of close we provided and past. Pakistan that has done quite well in the past year. The afghans are figuring this out. They do not have the same type of support from us. We are at the ministry level, the core level. The only place tactically we stay involved with the special forces, probably the best in the region, the Afghan Special forces. I look forward to taking your questions on and talking about afghanistan. It is near and dear to me. It has been for a very long time. Again, i would like to tell you a little bit about them as we go through the strings and answers. Benioff few specifics about the military dynamic and momentum. Before we do, you were talking about this earlier with me and i thought i would give a chance to remind americans why this is important, why afghanistan is important to our security. I know it is complex and sometimes and sometimes remote. G i wear two hats. Afghanistan at the end had. I continue to solidify the gains we have had over the past 14 years. I trained, and advice, and assist. The reason we went to afghanistan in the first place wein 2001 was to make sure were going to be a place, safe haven where insurgents were planning to hit the homeland. I do feel we are done great job from a conventional perspective and special operating verses and afghan Security Forces as well to make sure we have not had another 9 11. We have to continue to build the capacity of the afghan Security Forces in the region. They now have a president and a ce that are committed to the International Community. President connie is a commanderinchief. Every single day he is concerned about welfare. He visits their hospitals, training. He is stateside in the security quite well. For me, it really is about solidifying the past 14 years of gains they have made to ensure we have a stable afghanistan for central asia and that area, which i think early cuts down on the opportunities or insurgents to plan something to come to the homeland. I think anyone who has into an understand there are people out there that continue to want to change our way of life. To do that you sometimes have to play the away game. To do that in afghanistan has prevented us from having another 9 11. We are very blessed to have great men and women who continue to every single they put their lives on the line. We have kind of a sweet spot right now. 13,000 with nato. We talked about casualties. We have actually had one lost from the u. S. Soldier. Agreeing on blue incident. Bagrama civilian killed fire rocket attack and three contractors that were working with aviation folks. That is really it since the first of january. That is not by happens ants. We work very hard every day to mitigate. Again, i am really honored to have the privilege to lead men to think that continue about afghanistan and be part of something larger than themselves. We just learned the longstanding leader of the taliban appears stripped at two years or so. That is causing a lot of changes in the ranks. O years ago or so. How long is that taliban right now, and how was the fight going . How would you explain what has gone on in 2000 18, besides a big transition year where the afghans are overwhelmingly doing it on their own . How well should we think about the trend in the battlefield battlefield dynamic . Bu general campbell very tough fighting season. It started last year. Usually when we talk in terms of fighting season one april to one october. We have seen from the very last the fall we had political instability. The fighting continued through the winter. Really, that and Security Forces started. Did not wait for the taliban to initiate this. And started in february march timeframe. The 205th out of kandahar and 207 in iraq. They worked together. They took about two or four weeks of planning. They brought the commanders together. Along with the senior Afghan Police and army. It actually was a very complex plan that they want to take and initiate the fighting season first. They followed that up with another multicore operation. Then we had of month and a half where we had a little bit of a long. By thes caused caused insurgents going to the north. We have not seen this kind of fighting in the north. Not great levels, but it takes a few taliban to threaten a District Center. You have the people that call. Ut to cobble, the government we need some help. It really caused the afghan Security Forces to start moving some of their people to the north. They were trying to focus on another area. Over time, they work through that. A court commander in the 209th. Aere was a little bit of timeframe that they did not have the leadership. We are seeing around afghanistan. We talked about the south and east and have seen that of the past 13 or 14 years. I have seen him react to that. When we do crosscorrelation, the police or army. The taliban and do not have d 30 howitzers. Does not have an i35. M i17. Does not have humvees. Really gets down to leadership and having the confidence confidence to take it to the enemy. Even despite the casualties that the taliban and overthrow the Afghan Government. Theyis not going to happen will continue to come into cobble and see highprofile attacks. They will continue to take a magnetic id and put it on a bus. That is a good thing. The number of times that can Security Forces have stopped attacks on my headquarters and other places throughout cobble is really quite remarkable. What makes the news is the suicide attack. One or two people very low risk, to come into a city with upwards of 5 million people, really stuck tough to stop all of those. They will continue to work the system to build an afghan army and police they consist and on the road. Them trying to complete picture in my own mind and maybe others as well as the overall state of security in the country today. I know one thing you have done areownsized and now you commanding Resolute Support. You used to command the entire position for the security force. One thing youre done is give afghan afghans better stability. We did not produce as many documents for how we think the stability picture looks for own congress and public. I think that makes it harder sometimes for people to get a feel. My sense, and please correct me, is that the cities remain pretty good, especially by the standards of a wartime zone. Areas, the big circumference road around many of the populated regions and main travel roads is as secure as it has ever been in the modern era and the past six or eight years. I would like to hear you describe it. I could be wrong, and im sure the audience cares more about how you would explain the nuances. I think thebell cities, the ring route that provides most of the areas where the enemy to attack major afghan Security Forces is not happening like it was a year ago. Where they are having a problem again is the remote District Centers that represent the government. If the taliban takeover at District Center, that shows a loss of confidence in the government, people that live in the District Center will understand they dont have the right security. A year ago if they took over District Center, and maybe two or three or four a week or two before the afghan Security Forces have the capability to. Ake that back as soon as one of the District Centers has taken over, within hours. The time afghan Security Forces are taking that effect. They have the capability to react much quicker. Move forces all around the country. Nd take the that is a sign of progress as they move forward. They have technology, people, training. Holding those leaders accountable for the welfare of the soldiers and police. Then building the route with those folks as they continue taking offensive. They are very defensive in nature. 80 are on checkpoint. When you are on a checkpoint, you are very vulnerable to attacks. That is where they are taking losses on the small checkpoint. Afghan local police were designed to be the guardians of a village. They are selected by the elders of the village. They are supposed to guard the village. Without mutually reinforcing supports and therefore, they see the soft targets and take over checkpoints that up four or five people. Role of the next one. They are learning that as they go on the often do the plant operations, the number of casualties are much less. They planned them out. Hey plan for medevac when they are willing to verbal and not just sitting in those cities positions, they are not a target for the taliban. The president working that very hard. Senior leadership working that very hard. It has kind of been in their dna to be on checkpoint. Senior leadership working hard to get them off of that. I think you will see continued progress. Just remind folks, last year 5000 afghans in their lives, army and police in defense of the nation. Tour oft complete the service. Before they go awol. Are you finding insight to the future of the afghan Security Forces. How would you surprised summarize the Current Situation where you are losing people through a wall or attrition . General campbell we are working on what we can do to help them. They lose probably in the neighborhood of 4000 per month. A lot of that is casualties. Case is folks that go to a wall. Absence of leaving. We have done a deep dive. We affect why are they leaving . Young soldier and police that of infighting and home in for two or three years. You have not gotten a break. They are maybe not getting the right foods they deserve. Have not had the opportunity to train. And it gets down to leadership of training soldiers and police, something we take for granted and the Junior Officers do that very well, they do not have the same thing in afghanistan. Growing it but not there yet. When you are fighting all the time. When you need to take a break and have no other way and you are back home, you dont come back. That has really been the biggest issue. We are working on leadership, ways to retain people. When they invest in the afghan army, this is all volunteer force. A lot of times we forget about that. An all volunteer worse. Someone in list for three years and they want to reenlist. They have been doing it only for five years. You take a young soldier who was been at it for three years, he does not want to reenlist for another five years. Aba year or two years that they do not allow them to do that. Now they are doing that. How they have money to provide illnesses to recontract. Starting to apply the tools they have had for years that they just lost sight of. I think that will grow and maintain the army a little bit higher levels than they have had, and i think that is a good thing. It goes down to leadership in fighting common things like taking care of soldiers and police. Once they do that, i think the soldiers will stay. One senior afghan told me they do not need advisors to talk about patriotism were fighting. They got that down pat. We know they have been fighting for many years. They just need the right leadership to show them what right looks like to stay in the army, to stay in the police. I think they are making those adjustments now. I know some people have said the loss rates through casualties and a wall are unsustainable and the Afghan Forces. Obviously higher than you would like, but you would would you describe them is unsustainable . General campbell i think any casualty is a shame, and we have to take stock in that. We cannot forget about the Wounded Warriors they have. We are starting to incorporate Wounded Warrior program is into the afghan army and hopefully the police. I think that will be a good thing as we go forward. I think if they get rid of the attrition piece of it, work hard on recruiting for the whole year. What they do now, they do not route during the fighting season. They do not worry about recruiting april through october. The u. S. Army, we look at recruiting all year long. Also trying to make them accountable. A cork not core commander has to have a goal. Same thing with police. Starting to put those measures into place. Once they do that anyone to lose by battling and a wall is not good but we will overcome this reading of recruiting and retention. Ol is not good but we will overcome this recruiting and retention. You look ahead to the United States and our future in the afghanistan, we Hope Congress will continue funds for afghan Security Forces and Economic Development in many years in the future because they do not yet have this is able economic race to pay for this on their own. The on that, there is the military dimension, and we are thinking about two different priorities were us. One is the counterterrorism need. To what extent we want american drone, american intelligence in afghanistan or south asia into the longerterm future. The other question, what kind of support does the afghan army of what mightl need or they need even potentially the timeframe now projected. What criteria will you be examining to evaluate that progress . You talk about airpower and in other sessions. You talked about medevac. I know there are a few things undermined. Can you give a couple of the thank . General campbell you. It seems the challenges they have we have identified years ago. Duffyare things joe before me and john allen before him identified it will take a long time to build. Is atics and the u. S. Army very tough thing. Logistics and the terrain that you have in afghanistan quadruples how hard that it. Logistics, intelligence. Being able to take all these toferent sources, trying figure out what that really means, that took us many years to do. Those areas we identified will continue to work on those. That is where we are putting the on the advisors. Our visors today are the weapons systems. Were we at private and lieutenant and captains hour in the fight every single day, i have advisors now. I have advisors that are senior advisers. Areor civilians that experts in planning, programming, budgeting. Those kinds of things. Experts in transparency and accountability and oversight, rule of law, strategic communication. Those are areas we continue to work on very hard. We have metrics we measure every single week. Every week i get an update on essential functions as we look at it. Over time we will come to a point where we say that is the best we can do. They will not get further than that. Or i had six months left i need to prioritize and move advisors that will be more important in the long run. Im continually assessing the afghan Security Forces at the police and army as we go forward. , i do think for the long haul, intelligence, aviation, just takes a long time. 23 years to grow a pilot. Two or three years to maintain. We started late on growing their force. We will be there for a while to continue to work hard on the air worse. Sustainment is another issue. Force. Rk hard on the air not do well is we did not build middle management. It will take time to build what i call senior noncommissioned officers to get in there and keep the maintenance going. Those areas we will continue to look at. I assessed as every week as we move over. I think once it goes forward we are really looking at what it means from a u. S. Perspective. And then also, building an afghan capability. A ct capability for the region. The president has said he wants to be a regional player. So we look at that as well. Say has come on strong to what role can we play after Resolute Support . So defense ministerials and the foreign ministerials the last couple of months, the past couple of months we brought together the equivalent. All the countries that came out loud and strong to save they want to continue to contribute to the future and. The way they have gone about that is in these assessment. We assess what do they need to years from now back to what areas . Leadership is an area they of all caps about. Maintenance, aviation, intelligence. I think you will see nato, on board as we continue to work through that and continue to apply different country resources. Willing totners are stay longer even then currently planned if need be . General campbell i think theyre waiting to see where the u. S. Is going to go. Every day we are assessing that. I hope that my Senior Leadership anthe end of the fighting assessment of where we are, and i think they thought that, we will make decisions where we are in 2015 and beyond. Thank you. A question about the Afghan Government and one about the region and wrap up there. We of course here various reports about how well the president and chief executive officer are doing. Not only in the relations with each other, but bringing along broader political movement. We hear a lot of reports about how long it has taken for the be reformed. Still waiting on formal positions at this point. Could you explain whatever you think are the most important highlight to the audience. The rock eston, how well are they doing . Are they started to make headway or is it just an exercise in capping the attention so severe the next load into conflict or civil war at any given time explode into conflict or civil war at any given time . What is important to recognize is this is a very unique arrangement that has been made that has not happened in the past in afghanistan. Ae need to put it in context wider context of where we were a year ago and how we ended up in this arrangement we have right now. We had president kurt i president karzai that had been the leader since 2002. They had one in april 2014. He was not allowed to serve as president. You had a whole new crop of candidates standing up. Candidates to clear running themselves for president. Ofthink there might be a lot candidates running for president here in america but afghanistan have more. In order to win over a candidacy, you had to reach over 50 . No candidate was able to reach that threshold. The top two candidates, the first one abdullah with 40 if i am not mistaken and donnie with a lower percentage worst a runoff election. That happened two months afterwards in june. It was then contested, because them switch from abdullah being on top two got me being on top. So there was a wide recount that happened for a number of months. So you did not have an arrangement in place until september. Brokered byment was secretary kerry in the United States in order to bring both leaders together in order to help govern the country together. Very unique thing. You just had president karzai at the home. Now you have this unique arrangement where connie was president dr. Gillette being the chief executive who had handled a today operations. His position was established through a president ial decree. So this is very different. What is fascinating to see is how both leaders have a very different approach to common problems. Their strength actually have a real tendency to complement one another if they are able to Work Together on these issues. What is most fortunate is both are generally on the same page when it comes to broadbased policies. When it comes to security, they agree. When it comes to regional relations they agree. Rights,comes to womens they agree. When it comes to reconciliation, they have a broad understanding of the need to move forward. Those are key things. That should not be taken lightly with with regard to the earlier challenges. They had. Where are the challenges they face. They faced difficulty with regard to personal. Time. S a long it is important to put it in a wider, historical context. Even with president karzai was president , it took him many months in order to put his cabinet together. It is a bit more unique now. While it does take greater time in order to come to an agreement on an individual go through parliament, once that agreement is made, that agreement is much stronger. They can fundamentally disagree on political dynamics, but if they are able to reach it, it strengthens the bond of the decision to have. Now, we have not been able to we have been able to have an entire cabinet formed except for the ministry of defense. It was a real surprise he was not able to pass parliament a few weeks ago. It is good he is still serving an acting capacity. What is also important is to look at some of the other senior government positions with regard to the governors and such. More than two thirds of the governors have been placed in looking at other subnational leadership. What is important to keep in the back of your mind is more time s, the stronger the bond is. They have a greater vested interest in working through some of the daytoday problems than throwing that away. While there are challenges they face, while there are others outside the government saying things need to be changed, i think they do recognize and hear them. I dont think it is at the point where anyone would bring this down. There is too much of a vested interest in this. The whole country recognizes the value of the International Community and afghanistans future and want to be able to work through those things. For the pastell three or four months matt and i have heard the next week the government will fail, it will fall. They continue to move forward. I think, as mass over time, they continue to understand the strength and weaknesses of each other. Both will complement each other when they work very well. It is about picking people as they have to satisfy different groups of health care where they are. I think they are working very hard at that. I think everyone understands yet to get medical treatment on his foot and went to germany. I talk to him and the doctor before they left, and over the past several days theyve been talking every single day. They talked about the issue at hand. I think between them they understand how important this is. They understand it is a very tough fighting season. 80 plus percent of the people in have set National Union government is the only way forward. I have talked to many Senior Leaders on the military side and civilian side, and what they will tell you if there are people out there trying to do the nationalp Union Government for moving forward. At the same time, the understand how important it is. They will not let that happen. I feel very good about the future of the National Union government. And also, an appreciation the teams around them of the International Community. That rang so clear when both of them came to the washington march. When donnie addressed congress with both of them making the rounds on the hill. Meeting senior u. S. Leadership. Leadership sacrifices and to be able to Work Together as a partnership is something that cannot be spoke of enough. Before asking about the broader region in the peace talks, and recognizing the investor mckinley are joining us, so you do not want to get too far into this him anything one could say that they have begun to deliver for the benefit of the Afghan People . Obviously continuing to make it work and preserving the fight and the cities, is already a lot , so i dont want to be unrealistic. It has only been nine months, 10 months now. 11, but still. Is there anything you can point theor continued growth and economy or Development Progress that has their signature on it for good, whole will early sign of where the government is going in afghanistam . N . Economic issues or something they view as a top priority. What is interesting to see is how they both engage the region in a very robust way on economic issues. Has beenrth, dr. Dula pushing forward on those things. With regard to the east, gon his relationship to be able to bring economic growth, particularly in the west. Opening up trade route with pakistan that have not been established in the past. Iran accord the presents greater opportunity. They see this kind of opportunity and afghanistan being a central hub that can really serve as a great benefit to all in the region. Afghanistan is going through a wider rebalancing right now. At the root of that is economic growth. They have done pretty well starting from a low base. They have done reasonably well. Some of that was propped up by the influx of our dollars and so forth. Inemember when i was afghanistan in the 2011 in 2013 timeframe, people were only scared about this year and what happened to the economy. They then able to keep it chugging along, even though we have reduced our present in the number of american dollars flowing in . Matt this gets back to another area where they know they have to address it together. This is something they cant and the given the scale importance of has. Our withdrawal from the country and the force numbers have really left a bit of an economic cap. Something they are like ok, we know needs we need to do this , and we know we need to reach out to the region. What is fascinating to see us hani is not only reaching up to the immediate region but the wider region. Even what comes to saudi arabia, the emirate china and some of the energy matters, its really is a key point that he emphasizes time and time again. We saw it just a few to go when he was at the brick, to moscow. Ever going there is to be longterm stability in afghanistan it will rest of the economic base. Last question from me about the region. You have been mentioning the knowledge part of key relationships are ready. Generally you mentioned earlier the interplay with the conflict of pakistan and their own security efforts. Im sure you will want to comment. Anything else of note in the region of late with regard to chinas role in the peace talks . Anything else we should understand you think is particularly failing project really important right now . Matt i have been in afghanistan for five years, and everyone says this past year has been most critical. This past year has been fundamentally critical. There have been a number of strategic shifts that have happened in afghanistan and the wider region that i think a lot of folks could not have predicted. They present both great promise in great peril to the region. Ais is why there is readjustment going on. Let me explain a few of them. I think there is issues with regard to pack in. We have all been reading about this in the press. Yes push forward with trying to have the undeclared state of hostilities, his word, not mine. Trying to have a fundamental shift. So that there can be greater economic growth. There can be the address with regard to security issues. Other sorts of mutual military cooperation. A year ago we did not know whether the u. S. Would still be in the region. Ago you have this horrific attack in pakistan. You have about 142 People Killed in the school. Ways and the way it was described to me he i could see the reason why. It was pakistan 9 11, which really kind of will in the its regard to their own borders that had to be addressed. Theyre going on which general campbell alluded to. Something we have been encouraging them to do for a while but now they have. There are secondary effects with regard to afghanistan which pushed insurgents to afghanistan, which is another reason why the security situation has picked up at times. What you are also seeing is with regards to greater reach out to Security Operations in economic cooperation. You are seeing advancement with regard to the peace peace initiative. Something we did not anticipate would take the momentum they did. So there are all of these rings happening that are truly strategic in nature. The reason right now is really influx. I really do think we have a great tragic opportunity in front of us in order to help make sure afghanistan does not return to the past. Because there is such change. Also a lot of promises. Anything you want to say at this point . General campbell i think we have been in transition the entire time i have been there. From a government perspective on the sick and forced perspective and regional perspective. The changes we have had based on abdullahdent and dr. Being a commanderinchief, looking at a wider regional perspective, engaging with an, i that withid not see president karzai, at least the past several years, and it is an people to make sure understand you cannot talk about afghanistan unless you talk about pakistan. He understood that and expended a lot of Political Capital to do that. I think originally he did not see a lot of return from that, fromt took a lot of pick the population in afghanistan. I think now as we continue to forward, i think people will say what he did in preaching out and putting demands on pakistan to drive the taliban to the Peace Process will be a good thing. It will take a long time. We should not kid ourselves that will happen overnight. Finding out he have been dead for 2. 5 years will change the dynamic. There will be fracturing inside the taliban and and will drive some to the peace table quicker. So i think we still have to work said,h that, but as matt i do think this is a strategic opportunity to have a country and that part of the world that once to be part of the International Community. Leadership andor wants to move forward, but they will continue to need our support. They cannot do it without the interNational Unity. Thankfully we of 42 countries that are still tied to resolute for to either continue provide ,eople or money, and i think for me, the International Donor peace and people understand what they do contribute to afghanistan is making a difference every single day and to continue thats in the future will be very important. I look over to work hard with the of guinness and afghans to continue that. Fond of tuesday. She is been doing research on afghanistan for lisa. Speak. Vonda to much,nk you very gentlemen, for coming, your analysis, and most of all, your commitment. You spoke, both of you, of the importance of the National Unity thernment, and not just particular creature, the arrangement that came out of the election, but more broadly, the commitment of afghan politicians to the progress of the country. Coming to the government it self, much as it might be gratifying in some ways, there is an end over the jargon that is supposed to either indoors or dissolve this extraconstitutional arrangement. , our thethat parliamentary elections that are supposed to take place this year, which will likely not. Could you give us your reflection of what kind of preparation is being made for the parliamentary elections . What are the politics of that, and also, the impact on the Security Forces. If we see, for example, very contested, and particularly, if that happens in 2016, yet , u. S. R year of transition withdrawal will change for the diminishment of the u. S. Role. The timing of that, and the preparations of the afghans political place, thinking of the position, the pressures again coming together at the same time. I can raise two points to that. The apartment is on resource reset as you know. I think there will be a lot of sessions to address that more hisct with regard to particular the parliamentary elections. What will be interesting from my viewpoint is how they will be carried out from a security perspective im a just as you were saying. That will be fundamentally different from the past. In the past the coalition has been there in order to provide a lot of airlift, assistance. While they have their own airlift, certainly not in comparison in the past. Being able to time that with regards to weather and the fight they are taking on themselves will be a real test. Ownink as we all do our analysis on this, i think it beenbe a real milestone on being able to stand up and do that, both from a political perspective and security perspective. With regards to securing the if they are given a specific event in order to lock down in some ways, like when we year,hrough the psa last that was a very safe event. I was greatly impressed with that. They literally flooded the zone and were able to make sure there was nothing that with friend that from a security perspective. I definitely dont think that of being ableblem to perform. How it works out politically, i would not want to guess on that. What i have seen over the past year has constantly surprised me in terms of the twists and turns associated with these types of events. Right now it is definitely on everyones mind. The date has not been set. That will be a political calculation on all sides. What i will be looking at because of the vantage imf working with the military on that is how the military forces performed, prepare themselves for it, and able to execute those things. General campbell they can not even talk about it until they figure out the election reform. They Just Announced the past couple of weeks Election Forum committee. First meeting about two weeks ago. They will work towards what that means. When Parliament Comes back in, they will talk to parliament. It will decide probably in 2016 the spring or the writings or the security. I think from a security perspective, before the fighting season or after the fighting season, several months before that. ,nce the afghan Security Forces if it is a specific event, they have no issue doing the Detailed Planning to get ready to do Something Like that. I think they will do well. I think it has to get through election reform before they get anywhere on that before they had the election. At a time. Ake two right here. Second and first rose. Rows. Is karen mckelvey. I work for the bbc. Talked about how afghanistan is near and dear to you. I am wondering what you are most proud of. Since 9 11, but anything about your specific that you will remember about your legacy . Thank you. General campbell, matt, thank you for your courage and service to our country. I really admire both of you. My questions are aimed to be a little tough and may be hard, and maybe you cant get the truth. Give the truth. Over three years ago, the joint chiefs of staff told congress it was a Strategic Asset in many ways of the interest Services Intelligence organization. Since then, pakistan it has been quite clear it has been keeping the death of omar quite secret. Lot in afghanistan. The question i get asked all the . Ime, how can we try pakistan my question to you is the same one i get asked by audiences when i speak to them, how can we trust pakistans . Or against with us us in afghanistan . I have a second restaurant related to that. In his recent book, mike morale, for me former deputys director deputies director of the cia said we missed the boat on calling the islamic state. Our Intelligence Agency pretty clearly missed the death of omar. Diaral, the former head of set our Intelligence System needs to be reworked. Are you satisfied you are getting the right kind of intelligence echo does the Intelligent Systems need to be reworked to stop missing these big things . General campbell i have to remember all of those. Let me start with an easy one. As mike said, i went there in 2002 and 2003 as the kernel. I went back as a Major General and now the general. My son is a sergeant in the army and has in there twice. I have lost any friends in afghanistan. Iraq as well. What i think has impressed me the most is really working with Afghan Security versus, the men and women that continue to understand how important the role is to bring about change and again in. They had no lawns about putting their life on the line to do that. Alms lives on the line to do that. Little payunder very and very harsh continues continue to move forward for the good of guinness dance, to see to move an award, forward for the good of afghanistan to see them get an gives you goosebumps. They are very giving people. They take care of me and my men and women. We have had green on blue attack. They have gone after that very hard to make sure we can learn everything we can to get after that. They understand the sacrifice our men and women have endured. They understand our sacrifice the sacrifice our families have gone through. So when you work with a partner that is like that, you dont want to fail. You want to make sure everything you do you put your best effort toward. That is the way it is with the leadership. That is the latest with Afghan Police and army i have dealt with on three different tours and many trips there. Im honored to have the opportunity to continue to serve in afghanistan. People ask me all the time, is it worth it . Is the sacrifice worth it . Eyese to look parents in and tell them their daughter or son made the ultimate sacrifice and it was worth it, that i do believe that my heart it has been worth it and have made a difference and will continue to make a difference. When you talk about the definition of hope and what that means to the Afghan People, it is about what our men and women in the United States and many other countries have done for the past 14 years. They understand that, and i think if you ask any afghan on the street whether or not they wanted to have a continued presence by the Coalition Forces overwhelmingly you would find out that is very positive, unlike what you may hear in other countries. In afghanistan, they understand the sacrifice and one does there. On will work there has been speculation about whether he was dead or alive. , hishe myth out there presence they were able to keep alive through other folks out there. In smaller are way they operate. All they had to have was the notion of a spiritual leader and the commander that was out there that can moving. I think now when you will see knowing he is been done and has been dead for several years, april 2013, that will cause people to think the taliban fighters, what had i been doing this for. I think there is opportunity were afghanistan to push this and to bring in brother and sister in afghanistan as part of the pre Peace Process. Opportunity for afghan to move forward to facilitate bringing them to the table. I have a very Good Relationship with general heal. Once or to him about twice a week. I was there 10 days ago talking to him. Most of my conversation is how can we bring the afghan Security Forces and Pakistan Military Security Forces together to fight a common enemy that does not know the border that separates these countries. Rehealk in general repeal you have Leadership Team to understand it is not business as usual. To get up to the common enemy will have to Work Together. There is years and years of this trust, and if you talk to him within the Afghan Security versus the first thing they will say is pakistan has been harboring these guys and killing my brothers and sisters, but they also understand they have to have peace with pakistan before they move on. I think that is where they are trying to push forward. To connie piece is very difficult. Hani piece is very difficult. It is been the number one threat to Afghan Forces as well. There is no doubt pakistan over the years probably has not done enough to help us get after the threat. I had a very good one at one discussion with the general when i was over there 10 days ago. That will take time. Theynk as they look at it have a lot of other issues they will deal with inside of pakistan. They dont want him to turn on them, so they have to look at that as they work through it. I think he will see a concerted effort by pakistan to continue to drive the taliban to the peace table to drive down the violence level. Onhas been very strong giving him the antics to say you need to do this to show you mean what you said. Again, i think that will take time. Have i seen any memorable against him . Kistan i would tell you know, because i am so worried about the threat he brings to kabul. They are the folks that where suicide boasts best. We will continue to keep the pressure on pakistan. I think we will get after it. General Campbell Mike is a good friend of mine. We grew up together. I will not comment on his comments. Over the years have learned a great deal in all of our services and from an inner agency perspective, what we do and how we operate today is light years where we were 13 and 14 years ago. Our Intelligence Services is the best in the entire world. Do they have challenges . Yes, but i would staff that up against in the in the entire world. The cooperation between the military and in agency to include all of our intel community. We dont agree on everything, and quite frankly, i think they have a view that is last half empty all the time, and maybe glass half empty with a lot of holes in it. I will argue about that. If you go back and look at years and years of intel reports, and shouldve been done a couple of years ago. That is ok. They look at it very hard. We Work Together on assessments as we move forward. Were never going to agree 100 , but i would not want to be in afghanistan without the Intelligence Team that we have to provide indications, early warning, and the relationship that helps us mitigate the force protection issues i have every single day. To what i regards have taken away from these eight. 5 years, the most valuable thing to me has been the core moderate. Both military colleagues in civilian police. The afghans and iraqis. It is something that will always be deep to me and sends and the sense of purpose it gets. Mullah toward peace. That is the real drive that will continue. These are the sorts of things that these challenges, these curveballs, these are the things that come up, and the issue is whether you can stay focused. I think the primary players are focused on that. Orders the key thing, in to keep in mind with this, because it gets back to the problems i allude to, which is how president donning is trying to deal with pakistan. Knowing this is not going to be something that you achieve in a months, a fewew years