I appreciate all of you taking the time out to do this. Before i give a brief summary of the report which i hope all or most of you were able to get, it will be posted online by the way right after this event. I wanted to say a couple of thank yous, first is to the Ford Foundation that we are just completing our second year of funding with the Ford Foundation. They have been a great partner with us. Thank you to the Ford Foundation for believing in us, a slightly nontraditional partner for them on this. I want to thank my coauthor, carmen who is currently a louse aos working for unicef. If you are watching online, hello carmen. And then i want to thank our panelists who i will introduce in a minutes. This is an issue that has come onto mine and our team radar more and more over the last couple of years that we have been looking at this. It really is an issue, this issue of regular migration that is frustrating in a lot of ways. When you talk about people who are moving without some sort of regular status, so often you are talking at least in the United States about Illegal Immigrants. In the report, we shouldnt say that Illegal Immigrants dont exist, they do, but they are a small subset of the overall stock of migrants globally that doesnt have status and is in isnt able to move through regular orderly and safe means. Theres a really important conversation to be had about what to do for those people and with those people. I see this report as the beginning of a conversation. We need to be having more conversations like this in policy circles. We need to have more panels like this in more discussion and thistables talking about real phenomenon of people on the move in desperate people moving out of desperate circumstances, most of the time, and what we do about that. The shadows construct is one that we have thought about here at csis because the regular irregular migrants not only live in and travel through the shadows, but the idea of the irregular migration has been one that has been caught in the shadows of broader forced migration, forced displacement and migration conversations globally. Those conversations typically revolve around people with internationally recognized status. These are legal immigrants, refugees, asylumseekers. I think those are really important architectures that we have for those people and we need to maintain those and we need to strengthen those. But a regular migration is a critical global and underappreciated phenomenon, hence the existence of this report and hence why you are here today. We estimate there are over 100 million irregular migrants, slightly more than our friends at iom. We have taken our own slightly broader definition of irregular migration. The reality is we dont know. That could be an overblown estimate, could be a conservative estimate. A lot more work needs to be done on this and we hope that we can do it. Heres where i Say Something controversial. People in d. C. And the United States and europe and elsewhere dont really like to talk about migration right now. Csis is a bipartisan institution. We are not in the gotcha game. We want to present good, credible bipartisan solution to the challenging global issues of our time. I think the u. S. Needs to take a leadership role. That is my controversial opinion. I think that even in todays political environment, ignoring the root causes of why people are moving irregularly and only focusing on people who are arriving on the border and the size of the wall is a mistake. I think that mistake has long term ramifications. We, carmen and i and our program here argues that [no audio] [crowd talking] hello . That was for all of you folks on cspan2 that broke on the Pete Buttigieg rally to join us here on csis. I think the u. S. Leadership is both critical and feasible. Realistically not on everything. This is where my controversial opinion maybe gets tempered with a little bit of reality. But, i actually think ignoring this issue is not an option and so thank you again to all of you for being here and i would like to invite brian, cindy, and key to the stage for what i know will be a very interesting conversation. Are we good on these mics . [applause] can we get on the mics . We have foiled their plans. You probably came in small part to get a free copy of the report and thanks for doing that and hopefully you got one, but i hope you also came to hear from three people who i think are really important in this space, they are addressing this and other issues from a host of different perspectives, so i think its not just about the report and its not just about listening to people like me. One of the benefits and privileges of working at csis is that i get to email people like brian and cindy and say, we are doing this thing, would you be a part of it and thankfully they say yes. Brian, i want to start with you. You are the head of the Community Stabilization unit and migration agency, also known as iom. You have been with iom since the year 2000. And you have worked in the boston, afghanistan, indonesia, nepal, iraq and countless other places. You are a published author yourself on Climate Change and displacement. You have a handbook on communicating with disasters disasteraffected communities and relevant for a later part of this conversation i think you have also written about libya and labor migrants suffering in libya from those caught in the crisis. So brian, if i could just ask you a broad question first about we talk about shadows in this report where migrants find themselves. You work with stabilization and in some of these places where these shadows exist. Can you talk just a little bit about how you think about these issues . Sure, but i must begin by thanking you for the opportunity to be with such an esteemed panel. Its great and the report is very helpful in the commit will weve had a few years now is really important. So thank you. I look at the issue probably mostly through the eyes of the people that i have met, the faces of the people and the conversations that i have been fortunate enough to have over time. Of anecdotes. Awas in eastern niger, historical transit point for migration corridors heading north. I met this 17yearold guy from burkina faso and he had just come back after a failed trip to europe. He told me about the consistent, horrific events that had occurred. Until then he had been imprisoned in libya. He told me with a smile on his face and his and his and eyes about it brought me back to a philosophy class on kierkegaard where we talked about the best day of his imprisonment in libya from an he was sold north african prison owner to a Subsaharan African prison owner because he thought he would be deemed to valuable enough to live. Just last week there is an article in reuters about 15 migrants that were trying to cross the med. 14 of the 15 died, the one gentleman from ethiopia survived and was talking about the boats and the ships that were passing and he saw their faces and they moved on. Its horrible, so what is it means to me . When you get too attached to the horrific stories that we face, it can affect you personally. So we have to take a step back a little bit and take a look at some statistics and numbers and you have to wrap yourself in that. For the missing migrants project , it is 1750 that have died so far this year. That is down from three years ago where it was over 5000. At least now theres a little bit more of an understanding of data. If you go back to libya, i remember when qaddafi was killed and iom, my organization was being asked a very reasonable question, how many migrants are in libya . Check out the presleys. Press release. You go back and look at it, 75,000, 150, 250, i didnt know. Just did not know what the answer. Now approximately 670,000, 80 male, about 10 are minors. It also mean we rethink vulnerability and when you apply that to migrants. When you think tradition, i have done a lot of humanitarian response and an unaccompanied female is fairly high up on the list in the midst of a crisis. It was actually the twentysomething groups of guys who were migrants who were the most vulnerable in libya because they were perceived to be part of a conflict. They possibly could have been recruiting recruited. With the africa planned, there 20s. Rican men in their they were all being targeted. Whereas the unaccompanied females primarily where working at residences and were fairly safe. What does that mean . What kind of commodities we needed to have the border when people are coming across anticipating a lot of women coming across. This is happening. That was 2011. Year when fairly big you look at dealing with migrants and the issues they were facing. Bighailand there was a flood in bangkok and further off of the north. They were all these myanmar nationals. There was approximately about one million. All of them did not speak a language. They did not have access to services. They had to get assistance i was there at the time and king with the head of the who was in a difficult political spot. I really appreciated his commitment to helping migrants. If you only have 70 resources, you are also not helping someone else and you are not helping thai nationals. Tested the concept of impartiality. Just trying to put a little bit of a positive spin on that, you move forward and 2014 came the migrants and countries which left developed countries and more developed. 2015, the federation of the red cross came forward with a campaign on migrants. And i think we are in the space now where we are institutionalizing some of the needs of migrants and how to best address them. I think wehe things should talk about here is the Global Compact and how that is moving forward. Me to if you will allow go to other panelists but i would love to touch on the compacts and what you are seeing coming forward and how that will be operationalized. Cindy, thank you for being here. I was looking back on your bio and reminded you are dr. Cindy wang. Thank you for being here. Policy fellowor at the center for global development. The incoming Vice President of strategic outreach at Refugees International. I really cant wait to hear you talk a little bit about what youre going to do at Refugees International. I think its very interesting and relevant. You were director of policy at the state departments cso, conflict and stabilization operations. You are Senior Advisor to the counselor and chief of staff of the state department and you have done some really incredible things throughout your career. Thank you again for being here. You have tackled these issues both in the migration for forced displacement, even some of this irregular migration stuff. From research and of policy and from within and outside of government, can you just talk a little bit about your reactions to what brian said or this issue in general . Thank you. Its a real honor to be here and its been really fun to have this collaboration. Different think tanks can play nice together. Absolutely. Its been great because as you said, the need for more attention and i agree with your controversial statement of a need for u. S. Leadership on these topics. So, you caught me in a little bit of a philosophical mood. Not as philosophical as kierkegaard. I read your report and congratulations on it. It did make me think about some of the questions and ideas you pose there around what is the state of those postworld war ii order, the 1951 convention on refugees, the 1967 protocol and the caveat here is that most of my research and work has been focused on refugees so i come at through that angle. I completely agree it is time to take a step back and that we shouldnt be yes, there are real refugee protection concerns in the world and im so proud to have joined Refugees International because i think we need those independent voices out there but we also have to grapple with the fact that the world order is changing and we can either approach it from a position of fear and say we have to clamp down and protect what is there and protect the institutions thats providing Invaluable Services for some of the most valuable people in the world. We can either clamp down or we can take a fresh look and saying this is going to be a time, but a little bit more about the research he really challenged us to take an approach that we know will be longerterm to rebuild the system and im interested in your thoughts because i think these are not perfect him will not be perfectly unfermented but they are the next step in trying to outline the future of the architecture that we need. I was really moved by what you said about the experience in ibya around who are the most vulnerable . And when the uhcr was set, it at ho was most vulnerable the time. And the research ive been ing, not just myself but g. C. D. But my partner mr. Clemens and mentioned in your report the Central Americans fleeing and at the top of the political discourse and the rigorous empirical work g. C. D. Has done finding that there is no way to disentangle people fleeing violence from people also looking for economic opportunity. Its a mix. And using statistical methods you can say there is a relationship between people and increases in homicides in particular municipalities and the presence of longterm unemployment and underemployment, so it really challenges us to think about how we cant separate, if someone answers on a survey, i came for economic opportunities, it could be that and the school that they had sent their child to is closed because of Gang Violence and their neighbor has been targeted and maybe that doesnt respond to a definition of Refugee Status that exists but theyre really fleeing difficult circumstances. So i think there really is an opportunity to bring together different methods to create a better understanding of vulnerability and displacement today. So one other thing i really appreciated about your report is that it does talk about a spectrum as ive discussed and really challenged me to think about looking at refugees where some governments like turkey have provided kind of permission for people to be in turkey but only in specific places. So there was in the news recently the fact that there was the reports of the deportation of syrians who were not in the government that they were registered in. So theres a whole spectrum of situations and even for efugees and those who have Refugee Status or are in refugeelike situations, even their status can be irregular in some ways and was another example in the news recently that came to mind. And just to give a teaser on the work ill be doing at Refugees International, its really around how to better take that fresh look and better understand also about how the public, thats too general of a term, but how does the public think about migration and my focus will be for displacement and refugees in particular, but in that example of someone whose neighbor has been killed, mother has been threatened, i do believe and hope that the quote, unquote, average person or many people we can say look at that and say that person deserves protection. We should help that person. We need to help that person and we have to do a lot of work to build consensus around kind of the reality of vulnerability and we havent touched on climate vulnerability which is mentioned in your report, so we have to build a consensus around some of these understandings. We do need public support. And u. S. Leadership means leadership at the highest level but also engaging in public dialogue and Public Education about vulnerability and protection and what that means from a very basic human level and also what that means at the level of systems and institutions. And i almost always say this in panels though there have been very challenging times on refugee and asylum issues recently and by disposition an optimist and do have to believe this set of challenges which will not only affect the United States but is already affecting so many countries that there is a way for it. So ill end with one last the country that ive been looking at that is i think providing a lot of leadership is colombia hosting so many venezuelans and just taking a very positive approach and some of the research ive done talks about given the right to work so not only permission around residencey or Refugee Status, that refugees are actually given the right to work and allowed to contribute and i think there are governments that are keeping the doors relatively open and seeing that optimism and that potential opportunity in hosting refuse degrees refugees or even those without status as well. You brought up about a zillion really important points there. Just two i wanted to highlight. I had the opportunity last week to help lead a course here at csis for a bunch of journalism students and they chose venezuela and displaced venezuelans and the status issue as their topic and so with my colleague, we were the topical experts on this and i learned a lot about why we do this verbal dance every time we talk about venezuelans. We talk about venezuelan migrants and refugees and venezuelan People Living in refugeelike situations. Theres this dance that happens and there was a really important point that we figured out through the course of that week which was part of the reason is because countries like colombia are affording a version of temporary protection and status, and so if we go ull on into the refugee asylum push, that may actually have overall negative consequences in the grand scheme of things so it was sort of the unintended potential consequences of good intentions, all of that to say these are really complicated issues and theres no easy answer to this. If i could follow up on one point on that, i do think theres times when norms are shifting relatively quickly but kind of the de facto what is on the ground and what the political narrative and approach is potentially even more important so that we think about these examples where its not there could be unintended consequences to both practically and politically speaking of invoking status that looking around, are there seeds where this could grow and colombia could be a role model for other countries in the region and kind of also start to think how we build the system from the bottom up i think is also a really important line of inquiry which is what it sounds like you had with the students last week. And they were really phenomenal undergrads that were not topical experts on this but asking the right questions and makes me hopeful on the future of journalism. And the other point i wanted to make is the point about the Central Americans. We have a case study on this report on mexico. And the idea is not to talk about mexicans coming to the United States because as we point out in this case study, 1995 called and they want their problem back. Thats not whats going on right now. There are some mexicans that are coming north but more mexico, even though its policies and psyche and our psyche towards mexico and our policies towards mexico is focused on mexicans coming north, the reality is that mexico is in that receiver of people right now. And theyre having to deal with the influx of the Central Americans and the haitians and even the venezuelans and beyond and by the way, mexicans that are leaving the u. S. And going back to next co. And their systems arent really set up for that. And we were talking about this and as part of the research we went down to the guatemalan border so the cover of this is actually from a migrant shelter in southern mexico. And we were talking to people down there this idea what you and michael have done really Excellent Research on about how if you ask someone, theyll say yeah, i came for a better life. But if you peel back that onion one layer, its because of the reasons you said, if im a woman walking at night and i live in a poor neighborhood and theres not a light in my neighborhood, im at risk of Sexual Violence or maybe i dont have enough money to have a lock on my door, so were at risk of just vandalism and robbery at every moment. Maybe thats not top of line for that person when theyre asking that question on that survey, but like i said if you peel back the onion a bit, i am willing some people are. I bet there are other credible researchers than i that are talking to people but thanks for that. Youre the chief operating officer at the International Medical corps and you maintain an affiliation with George Washington university. You were at tulane before, youre a man of many hats. And were very happy to have you here. You were relevant for this conversation, you were also the head of the office of foreign Disaster Assistance in the Bush Administration at usaid. So youve come at these issues from a whole host of different perspectives, academic practitioner, government official. So same question to you, how do you think about these issues . First, i will congratulate you and csis on the report and really to keep the migration issue regular irregular at the forefront. I think it through with the urgency we have to come up with a better way to deal with migration flows. Where i think your report noted that perhaps with rising sea levels in bangladesh we may be dealing 40 or 50 years with an entire country under water, what do we do with that entire population . In new orleans where i live and louisiana, as you know, we are losing land by the day where if youre outside the levee system , already there are towns that are under water. What do we do with this population . Its relevant overseas, its relevant here. I think what how we approach and how i approach we need to have more evidencebased approach to dealing with the migration issue. And a project that, while at tulane and George Washington that we worked on, was we developed and stood up what we call the Resilient African Network this is a collaboration of 18 Subsaharan Africa, and included stanford, tulane and now George Washington. And the network looked at how do we measure resilience . Resilience to conflict, resilience to food and insecurity and violence, how do we measure that and use that knowledge and evidence to actually inform Innovation Solutions to attract resilience . And some somalia, an interesting study, we partnered with the university to look at how do populations become more resilient to conflict and chronic displacement and developing using a mixed method study in six communities in somalia, we had identified dimensions of resilience we found to be protective factors. They had high pickive value in terms of mitigating the impact of chronic displacement. Those three are very similar to whats been identified in your report. Governance, and access to basic services. So in Host Communities that had policies that promoted protection afforded basic human rights, that afforded the displaced population opportunities for livelihood, that had afforded them access to basic services, we found higher scores of resilience. And i will take that further in terms of applying it in my current role with the International Medical corps, and if you could put on that picture on the slide here, which is that in june, i had the opportunity to travel out to libya and tripoli to look at our programs firsthand. Brian has already mentioned here in terms of when we think through irregular migration, libya comes to mind where youve seen the pictures, youve seen the stories. Libya now is a country of transit. There are also these pictures here in terms of the sea rescues that take place, the International Medical corps is operating in nine Detention Centers and providing health care and providing sea rescues. And this is what irregular Michael Jordan rants or Migrants Migrants are facing. Youll see in the middle picture, the side of that room is probably the size of this room. D at that time during my visit, there were over a thousand young men housed in this facility. This facility in this picture to the right had one bathroom. As we spoke to the young men within this Detention Center, their daily ritual is to be able to wait in line to use the facilities. That is their reality day in and day out. Theyre sleeping next to each other and theyre waiting for something to happen. And these are individuals who had paid smugglers to be able to bring them into libya hoping to be able to transit out. When they arrive at the border, theyre picked up by local militias who then put them into a Detention Center where theyll go back to the families and try to exploit and get additional moneys and theyre detained here for upwards of 69 months. In this population, there are irregular migrants but theyre also what we would consider to e refugees who are waiting for interviews with unhcr and looking to be resettled or perhaps find a solution. We also see groups of young children, youth, that are housed in these detention facilities among the men. As you can think through here in terms of the protection related issues, this is the reality here. Again, i just wanted to put the picture out there but bring it back in terms of what is it that we can do perhaps to mitigate the negative impacts of when things happen where these protection issues come up . D going back to governance and services, libya was not always a transit country. It was a point of destination. So in the 1950s and 1960s with the oil and economic boon there, this was a large pull factor for many within Subsaharan Africa and at the height of the pro immigration policy, open borders, where Subsaharan Africans did not need a visa in order to come to libya. I believe there was Something Like 2. 5 million migrants in libya compared to a total population of six million. So migrants played a huge role with regard to the economic backbone of society within libya. So when you see a breakdown in terms of the governance structure when its not affording basic human rights and when youre not allowed access to basic services and you dont have a means in terms of generating livelihood, you move quickly from being able to have positive pull factors that actually benefit both the Host Communities and countries and migrants themselves to a situation we see today in libya that for many of these individuals, theres not a lot of hope. It strikes me that as you were talking, i was thinking if we had just replaced the word libya with venezuela to what youre talking about, venezuela used to be a destination for workers because of a oil boon and they were very welcoming to colombians escaping the narco wars in the 1990s and now look where they are. And im glad you brought up governance in that same conversation. Im rereading why nations fail right nowo so im really hot on institutions and governance. So thanks for that. You also mentioned bangladesh. And cindy, i know youve been in bangladesh recently thinking about sort of a compaq in a different way. I want to come back to you in a bangladesh compaq point. But ryan, tell us a little bit about where we are with the global compaq on migration . Im mainly going to ask you about the g. C. M. , the extent you would like to comment on the g. C. R. , thats fine but where are we going and does it matter . I think it does. I totally agree with you. But i thought id love some softball action. Theres nothing quite like a multilateral nonbinding process to really excite the crowd. Thank you for that. It will be this december the g. C. M. Will have its first birthday, and one thing that came out of the g. C. M. Which was not borne in a vacuum but born out of regional processes that had occurred and earlier affirmations is a network, and a Migration Network was created, and whenever you have a network, of course you have an executive committee and then you have a secretary. Thats a role that i. O. M. Has d theyre participation from u. S. Women and unicef is bringing someone on to help with the secretary but just so the executive committee and the network is all Available Online for those who are interested. And very recently the network just came out with a work plan. And the work plan, looking at some of its core activities, theres a startup fund for safe, orderly, and regular migration. Theres a goal to capitalize that up to 25 million. I think 1 million is in right now. On that and with any funds theres the Steering Committee and multilateral affairs. This is why people hate multilateral. Im kidding. And i. L. O. Is engaged in that again and i think u. S. Women and if im skipping a u. N. Brother Sister Organization youll get an angry email. I will. And it also has donor countries and germany is participating in that and then also countries representing sending, receiving and transit countries, although now theres so many countries its all three. How that will be sorted out, theyre going to have to work through. That just got constituted in may. This is the fund. The fund got constituted in may and then theyre pulling everyone together in october to figure out exactly what the modalities will be. So theres one more pretty important structure, and ill just give some key dates, but the International Migration review form, the global compaq said this form will be created, the global compaq was stateled and this form is at the head of state level and theyll be meeting every four years, the first time will be 2022. And bangladesh and spain are leading that process. O for some key dates, this december 11, the oneyear anniversary, youll have the annual meeting of the network. As per the g. C. M. , theres an obligation to provide an evaluation of how its performing. Done by e year, thats the secretary and by us and partners and then the subsequent year, its done by the secretary general. So were really pleased it has that level of visibility. The u. N. Secretarygeneral. The u. N. Secretarygeneral and baked into i think thats significant that he himself is playing a role in the operationalization of the g. C. M. So well be looking at that. Hell be engaged every other year in the review and there is an annual review process which is already baked into that. And then the goal is how do you operationalize it and make it relevant on the country and regional level . One way you do that is with a fund. And so as of today, theres approximate 50 u. N. Country teams that have been looking at the g. C. M. And figuring out of of the various 23 parts the g. C. M. Would be relevant for their country team and trying to align themselves with it. I dont know what percentage of the audience i just put to sleep, but let me tell you why i think this is really important. The g. C. M. I dont think you put this audience to sleep, by the way. This audience likes to get a ttle down and dirty in the wonkesphere. Despite the fact the u. S. Decided to pull out of the process in december of 2017, i hope one day the u. S. Dos back. Comes back. Even without that, the reason im excited about the g. C. M. Is it was a member state driven process. You just said the Member States are continuing to be involved. You guys are serving as the secretary, youre not serving as were going to come up with all the solutions and get people to sign it off. Member states are actually having to do the really hard work of negotiating with one another on language, on things that are not really easy to talk about. So its going to be harder, the process is going to be harder but id argue that the process being harder will lead to the outcome being more durable and more long lasting. Thats at least my version of optimism. Cindy, i also happen to be a Glass Half Full type. I think what you described as the next steps is really continuing on this sort of member state driven you know, there needs to be a secretary, you need to be playing a role here but the fact that the secretarygeneral himself and the Member States are still involved i think is a really significant thing. Yeah, i would agree. I think one of the challenges that everyone is looking at is how to benefit from the years of work, various regional consultive processes, theres the bali process focused on trafficking and the abu dhabi dialogue finding standards between laborsending and laborreceiving countries. The list could go on. But how to connect those bodies were sure that tapping into that knowledge. But what is positive behind each of those entities, whether the g. C. M. Or the regional bodies, you have Member States and you have countries that have positions, we can like them, we cannot like them. But they have their positions and engage based on their interests. And those that really have seen value in it just keep on moving along. Yeah. Please add to that. Maybe to jump in on the value of the g. C. M. And connecting it to your report on regular migration, i think there is a lot of interest and theres evidence to show that increasing the legal, safe, orderly, and regular pathways can help diminish the need for people to use irregular pathways. And just to mention, i know that yes, the avenue still needs to be further developed so it will depend on context in some cases but again to highlight the work of my colleague, michael clemens, you mentioned the mexico case and he did a study, a historical study that showed how providing temporary permits for workers to come from mexico to the United States, ending that program really led to an increase in regular migration because we talk about the push and pull factors, many of those exists. Whether or not there is a legal channel. So whether its the u. S. That needs temporary, Seasonal Agriculture workers, that push and pull will be there so if we provide more regular channels, and thats not only in terms of labor migration, temporary or permanent, but also in the cases where protection people should have Refugee Status in making sure that processing happens in a timely manner, i think really shows how Member States are and should be interested both because of the economic and other benefits of establishing these pathways but also because erol several months ago, you wrote, and maybe it was a year ago, you wrote what i would consider a productively provocative thing about bangladesh. Ky brought up bangladesh in a previous reiteration of our work of forced migration. I have been there doing research as well. Talk to us about you have been there recently talk to us a little bit about that. Talk to us about what you learned in bangladesh. Cindy yeah, we did put out a proposal for a bangladesh contract. The historysay about that, we were inspired in our thinking about the their compacts the global so at the country level. And even before that, when i worked at the millennium corporation, we also pulled together resources to support the country to achieve greater inclusive status. Theres a policy reform that are not about conditionality, like we will give you money if you do this, but what are the policy reforms necessary so we achieve the outcomes we jointly set forth . Thats a different context, because its not around displacement. But then there were the examples like the jordan compact, where there was a big commitment of both aid, concessional finance, and private investment that created a package where it created the conditions for jordan to really make a case to its own people, to say that we are hosting a large number of syrian refugees, and in order to give them access to employment opportunities, you know, we need to grow the pie. And thats a very understandable thing to believe. And the International Community did step up, and that led jordan compact, which is similar to the mcc case i outlined. Commitmentsents and in a productive dialogue and differentccess on commitments and i would say continual improvements. Again, not that it has been perfect. In the case in bangladesh, we thought is there also a package that can be put together to really change the dialogue, and i would say we have not achieved success. I think its really a tough conversation. However, i will say we have seen, and i saw on my trip there, some signs of progress. In that while there has not been large policy shifts, there have been greater cash for Work Opportunities for refugees. You are starting to see planning and thinking about what would a local abutment plan and cost look like that does try to grow the pie for everyone. And i do think those policy changes are really important. And we have done a report on the economic and fiscal effects of marketg refugees labor access. There are tricky political dimensions, but the more we can grow the narrative about growing the pie and the contributions refugees could make if they had access to the greater access to the labor market is an important part of the story around displacement, and refugees, displaced people are in average for ten years and those displays displacement displaced for five or more years are displacement 15 or 20. Erol and i think ky, i want to turn to you about a little about what we can do to help with this. Reallywed this is a meaningful illustration of the scale of the problem and the reality that this is about people. What can we do about it . Ky and i think you mandatory and orientations like the International Medical corps, we can put a bandaid on the problem. This is the reality. And these Detention Centers, they are, in theory, managed by the government, but they are really led by militia groups. Uponr access is dependent these militia groups, who prescribed the conditions, in terms of how long they detain, who they detain in these environment, what they are fed. And it is a real challenge, for our staff, day in and day out, to the witness to these horrific conditions. But if we speak out, our access to this vulnerable population would be denied. So a longterm solution here and we have seen this. You have touched on the approachral g. C. M. Here, but we have also seen effective measures between lateral and regional cooperation. Between countries that export laborers and migrants and countries that take them in. I think through the colombo meetings that brought together the south and Southeast Asian countries, as well as abu dhabi, but had the gulf states, and having that bilateral cooperation, where, perhaps in those countries, your exporting migrants, policy and information campaigns that allows the migrants to understand the conditions within which they would be deploying to, but also working with the countries that are taking in these migrants to create the types of policies that do not result in exploiting the laborers and providing conditions within which they are meeting the labor cap also being able to take care of themselves and their families. So i do think, again, this momentum needs to be built at the multilateral, at the , at the bilateral level, and ultimately, the solution is not how much aid and assistance we can provide to migrants. It is ultimately the big governmental policies that have to shift to be able to allow for migration to take place in a meaningful way. Erol i think that makes a lot of sense. Brian, i. O. M. Is not just a secretariat for the Global Compact. You guys are and implementing organization. You do a lot of important work on these and other issues. So same question to you. What we do about this . And i am primarily asking about the field, but i think that this idea of the policies and what we can do regionally and internationally and here in washington is really important. So take it in whatever direction would like. What can we do . Brian i will take it to your report. I like the title, because the whole idea of shadows a shadow can be caused by anything, right . Can be caused by a building, a person, by whatever. Erol i am 63, i because a few shadows going down the street. [laughter] brian well, i am not sixfoot free. The point is there is multiple things that can create the same situation. The same horrific situation. And you both have just been talking quite a bit about policies. At laborwe look sending and labor receiving countries, the unintended consequence of having your visa tied to your employer. If your visa is tied to your employer and things are not going well, you dont have the mobility. If you do not have an opportunity, you cannot really use redirect in a practical fashion. It exist. May a single entry visa versus a double entry visa. People go for work. You have a situation at home, you have to come back, a funeral or something. Then you go back to work. You were a regular migrant and now you are an irregular migrant. It was just a policy that created that. Your report talks about eritrea, and how that has such a Significant Impact on the creation of irregular migration, because people do not want to be deferred. We so often think about the natural disasters and the conflicts as drivers of displacement, and they are hugely significant. Some of the policy issues really have a very, very similar impact. So to help unpack the issues, which is why im really happy that we are having this discourse today, to be able to articulate the whole complexity of the situation because youre talking about drivers earlier. And one of the issues when were looking at drivers is that can you really just find one . In syria, absolutely. Right . Thats pretty clear, what a driver is. World,e swaths of the what was the tipping point, when you and your family said we are done . What exactly is that . An increase in the homicide rates, 100 88 . Increase in outward migration, nino. F. P. Report, in el communities, 1. 5 times more likely to then become irregular migrants. But it is so erol i am so happy that one person has read the report. [laughter] about causality . Cindy yes. Brian and allow me to have a far more distinguished person follow up on that issue. [laughter] because that is what we grapple with, this issue of causality. Cindy i was going to say those correlations are interesting, but it goes back to we need more research. And there are these moments in the Central America studies i mentioned where just circumstances enabled us to use causal identification strategy. But we really have to double down it is selfserving for someone at a think tank say we need more research, so take it with a grain of salt. But i agree. And i think it is critical because it is on the basis of correlation and case studies, studies,a wallow pulling it together, and here is the picture and how the new policies can respond. Ill end with back on how you communicate with people, theres a great study that came out of ucsd that was kind of putting people into someone elses shoes, what would you do . Maybe it seems simple, and i t really does get them to think differently. And i think a lot of them talked about statistics and communicating and connecting with people to build this new system. There is so much to the stories that all of you have told. And on the spot exercise, to say what would be that point for me or anyone to say i am out of here . Fromt to say my threshold, a life of comfort, is much lower than what people are facing when they make the decisions. Erol to the point where its not really a decision at all. Cindy right. Erol i can ask you guys a zillion questions. We have a good audience here today. And i want to open it up to some questions. Colleagues with microphones. All i would ask is you stand up and tell us your name and what organization you are with, if endare with one, and try to your intervention with a question mark, if possible. We have a gentleman right here and then we will take this woman in the middle. My name is liliana i was really impressed about those pictures. If i correctly understood you, you said one bathroom for that amount of people. So my question is what about the Health Issues there . Is there any system that allows volunteer,e a gyno medical team, to treat them . Erol that is a good question. And if the panel could indulge me, maybe i can take two or three and then answer folks. So the gentleman with the glasses over here. Usthank you for talking with today. I am a grad student at american university. I have a ton of questions, but i will stick to one that has been on my mind lately. I read recently that Climate Change was one of the big drivers causing the mass migration from the northern america. And central and i was wondering if you guys have looked at this a little bit in your research. What other areas in the world are we going to start seeing more Climate Change have an effect on irregular migration. And what is the dialogue internationally to address it and how to go about dealing with it . Erol thank you for asking the Climate Change question. It was on my list of questions. So nice that it worked out that way. Atmy name is louisa i worked the organization of american states, a working group for venezuela and the migration crisis. I am very impressed, listening to you. This is so enriching. At the same time, i have not heard anything about venezuela, and i would like to know why this migration crisis in ezuela has been reached has not reached the Global Awareness it serves. I was there at the border between colombia and venezuela. I have not seen anything in my life like that before. So i would like to know why. Erol certainly not in america. Thank you for that question. It is important. Since the first question was geared mostly at ky, but you guys can take any and all of these. If you skirt any of them, i will make sure to make a followup. Ky so on the question regarding access to health care within libya, there is about 800,000 libyats, give or take, in these days. The majority are not living in Detention Centers. They are within Host Communities themselves. There are groups, like the International Medical corps, partnering with i. O. M. And others, that provide Public Health in clinics. Our mobile medical teams come in and provide free rescues. But again, a lot of focus and attention has been on the Detention Centers themselves. We need to focus a little bit more on the broader population of migrants within libya itself. Balancen, it is a between shedding more of a light focus on these migrants, because one of the issues we are constantly grappling with is we operate a clinic in order to provide support to the migrants. When they are lining up and queuing in front of our clinic, it raises their visibility, and militia groups can come by and pick them up and put them in these Detention Centers. So in terms of getting access and the ability to provide care, it is an ongoing challenge in terms of dealing with the armed militia groups who are really in control and many of these areas. Venezuelacomment on my wife is venezuelan and asks the same question every day. Why are we not doing more . Numbers,we look at the there are more displaced persons growing out of venezuela then even syria. So this is a great problem and is a perplexing issue in terms of why it has not resulted in more action . That i also ask question. Someone i collaborated with at brookings put out an interesting piece showing that the disparity in International Funding that has been made available to displaced venezuelans i know there are a number of reasons and i know they have not done and Indepth Research enough to say with a hierarchy is, but going back to erols opening remarks, i think we do not have that kind of coordinated, focused global group that is shining a light and stepping up. There is a lot of fantastic commitment bilateral donors and private sector. I also collaborated with the partnership of refugees, who the ceo who recently said that the private sector also has to help. I do not know the answer, but it is something we have to be asking and pushing to make sure greater attention is paid. I do hope it is not just unfortunately, in a lot of crises, greater attention is paid when something happens. I do not hope for this to happen, but maybe there is a big epidemic. So i really hope the attention and leadership of the countries continues, and it could be a positive story. And i will quickly say, on climate, it is not an area of my expertise, but i know in the areas of west africa, there are increasing trends there are reports i do not know they are all verified, but i know in syria that Climate Change played a role. So that is an area that it is a reality of human caused Climate Change. There is a response, Greater Research that bridges the causes, that there are these longerterm trends that we need to Pay Attention to as well. Start withess, to the prisons, the detention , i wish it was a matter how do we get to hear here. I interviewed a lot of those people who came from the Detention Centers. The vast majority are outside of government control. They do not have any access to and you either have a work prison or a killing prison. The work prison is where your under goodenough conditions that the owner of that prison can sell you on the daily labor market. And then there is one you are not. The situation is so horrific. I have been some steps am an optimist, and there are a lot of joint positions on how to improve the situation and how to have access. Just sosituation is much more horrible than a lack of access to basic services. Asis critically critically important as they are, it is unfortunately just so much worse. For the question on Climate Change, one of the most confrontational meetings i was ever a participant in was in fiji, the u. N. Climate change compact. It was a regional consultation, as a i had been brought subject Matter Expert on displacement. That Pacific Island states would look at migration as an adaptation shadow g as opposed to how about compensation . As an adaptation strategy as opposed to about compensation . The west had different opinions. So it was a very heated conversation. More recently i think you referenced in your report. Hey bought some land in fiji so migration is one of the adaptation strategies. So that is starting to enter the discourse a bit more than it used to. Beenenezuela, i. O. M. s privileged to work shortly with forr on the platform assistance of venezuelans outside of venezuela. Everything that the person with a question had. You are completely correct. It is not getting the resources that it needs. It needs a significantly more. Just today, the head of the platform put out a statement focusing on this particular issue. You just need to continue it. Ou asked why and i do not know maybe geography . I do not know for sure. But if you want to galvanize a response to libya, and youre looking for funding from the rightthe fact that it is across we cannot discount that. The amount of resources that go into turkey. And you look at the proximity issues. So is that part of it . That would not surprise me. But the honest answer is i do not have a good answer to your question. Erol normally as a moderator, i do not answer questions, but i will use moderator prerogative to answer a couple of these. I will start with venezuela, which is a fantastic one. Having looked at this recently, i do not think these are full answers, but your question about why it is not getting more attention is partially an appeal for us to talk about this more generally, and i am fully on board with that. Think it is a really important one. The first answer is a little bit of donor fatigue, although what brian said, and the way i think and unhcr is i. O. M. If youre looking for a bright spot, the collaboration between unhcr and i. O. M. Is something to watch, both in and in glow bangladesh and other places. But there is a regional appeal for venezuela displacement. The appeal this year is less than 800 million. It sounds like a lot of money. Like a lot of money. 800 Million Dollars is a lot of money. If you are thinking about responses to global crises and 5 atlion venezuelans displaced the end of the year, the International Community could sneeze and come up with 800 million if they wanted to. The u. S. Is one of the larger contributors to that, but as i mentioned, the europeans are onh more focused submediterranean africans coming across the mediterranean. And i am the sense not quoting anybody i get the sense that kind of like the u. S. And canada, this is a western hemisphere problem there are contributing, playing ball, going to the meetings, but they are looking to leadership on these issues from the United States. Of the venezuela conversation that does not get theed about near enough is islands. The caribbean islands there are Something Like 22,000 cortisol corps de 15,000 of the population on the island right now are venezuelans. That is backbreaking. Isill not go too far, but it important. Quickly on Climate Change, Climate Change is such a fundamental thing to talk about, because our next conversation we will have on this will talk about how Climate Change is at the root of all the other root causes. Liststed, as one of we it as one of a root cause, but if you think about Climate Change, it is the root cause of food insecurity, of rising sea people to forcing leave, so i think that is really critical. In the last thing i will say about climate is there is not really a Good International architecture response to those displaced by climate. Gcm mention gcr and people displaced by climate, but we have a long way to go. The reason i said 100 Million People is a conservative estimate of irregular migrants globally, because all of the people who are having to leave because of climate do not have official status. They do not fall under protections, they do not fall into any protection like that. I want to take a few more questions. Gentlemen in the glasses here, and then we will take one from there and the women here. I am trying to be equal opportunity. Thank you for this timely panel. My question is one of the key recommendations that you have on leveraging the private sector. So my question to the panelists is what can be done to increase the private sector role in these responses . What particular role ,an the private sector today with the markets today, and middle income and high income content . Erol excellent question. Gentlemen in the middle here. I cannot believe we have discussed the venezuelans and colombia so much without anyone pointing out that colombia has the largest amount of internal displaced people in the world, 7 million. Our idp and talk about lack of attention. I doubt that one president s and a has the that colombi largest amount of internally displaced people. Idps irregular migrants or Something Else . And how does the number of idps compared to the number of irregular migrants . For the you so much fantastic position of everyone. I would like to mention some comments and then have a question. Now, in theright more and are seeing huge amount of migrants around the world that are escaping home there are criminalized states in power or criminalized groups taking power. So they really have to leave. Irregularities. Situations,iminal criminal power. I feel like the foremost power are the mechanisms related to the problem and are moving really slow. We are creating a massive amount , in the irregular situation, that are extremely vulnerable. Either as a victim for the criminal group or the criminal are passing to the workers of the criminal economy. So my comment is this fact, in one way or another, touch or cuss what is the Pressure Point . There is more and more vulnerability of the migrants, and we are talking about millions and millions of people. I feel like the machine is eating itself, right . Erol i think that is a really good question. On page six of the report, talk about something, about how ,eople movement, so smugglers et cetera, it is no longer a niche business. There is a u. N. Report i use the term business elaborately. There is a report out that says between 5. 5 billion dollars and 7 billion last year was made by people smuggling in a recent year. The u. S. Spends 7 billion a year on global humanitarian assistance. This is no longer part of the shadows construct is to draw attention to people moving through those irregular pathways using those. Lot so thank you for bringing that up. And i apologize to the panelists for getting excited about page six. So maybe i will go the other way. Brian i will start with the last comment. Just echoing what you said, erol. The smuggling and Trafficking Networks are so highly sophisticated. They have supply chains like a fortune 500 company. An issue that ties into the displacementat more and more so, an outward migration, many people think about it in an antiquated fashion. That is the one way movement from the global south into the global north. That is simply not the case anymore. About i think three years ago, the world migration report, that is when southsouth mobility and southsouth migration exceeded the idea of southnorth. But then the data gets spotty year. Spottier. And there is not so much light on the problem, hence the shadows. That is a growing trend, having these regional migration patterns. Much more so than crossing continents. It is an issue that exists in certainly an issue that is going to continue. For the private sector, to put the optimist hat on, i think we have an opportunity right now. Because a week or so ago, it came out from the business 150some odd ceos that turned Milton Friedman upside down, shared that shareholder profit is not the sole rationale of a corporation anymore. Thank you very much. We appreciate those signatories. So what does that mean and how do we unpack it and how will that impact migrants . Think of the positive impact it will have on managing the supply chains, on the ethical recruitment issues occurring. That is just a great space where the u. S. Can have a leading role. The u. S. Chamber of commerce is pretty forward leaning in this area. The u. S. As forward leaning as far as private sector engagement. Then as far as what the private sector can do itself, i look at it two separate ways, or kind of three. Bono. No, low bono, and no if it is philanthropy, that is great. We are all equal opportunity recipients of largess, preferably cash. , it is when the market makes sense, and you are ,ooking at an intervention doing what that business does and really creating markets, creating Job Opportunities in unstable environments. There is risk associated with that and ways to head to that risk, so it will be a conversation i would love to continue. , it the idps in colombia is the largest in the world. As far as the overall number of migrants that we are facing, i think i. O. M. Puts the figure 58 million. T the comment on venezuela to the initial, something for a lot of people to understand is the circular fashion of venezuelan migration. There is a lot of outflows but a lot of people going into colombia to Access Services and then going back to venezuela. Erol sometimes on a daily basis. Brian yeah. And our biggest request, which statement just earlier today is can the neighboring countries maintain what, to date, has been immigrationax standards allow people to cross out of venezuela and coming and accessing services. That is not simply an economic issue, right . It is not simply do we have the services and the capacity, it is also a political issue. When thel circle, back head of the thai red cross had to make a decision to get assistance to myanmar migrants, which means he was not getting assistance to certain thais who were in need, these decisions need to be made and they are not made in a vacuum. He took a lot of heat for that, and in the end, i really appreciated him for it. So hopefully in the end that governments will be even more welcoming in terms of migrants crossing in. Cindy i think we only have one minute left, so just to highlight, it is really exciting what has happened in terms of the different private sector engagement. I would say give cash if you can, and if you are not an position to, in a do Something Else. It goes back to what i spoke about, growing the pie. Whether it is regular migrants or refugees, you have to keep growing the pie so we can promote social cohesion and leave opportunities and no one behind. I think there are a lot of ways to that to do that. And the center for global leave no one velma and Refugees International launched a new initiative to look at how can we increase labor Market Access for refugees on the policy side and how do we further engage the private sector so we can generate more Sustainable Solutions together. Erol absolutely. Ky . Ky i will say this all states have the prerogative, the sovereign prerogative, to be able to prescribe the conditions for entry for nonnationals within their countries. But they should do so with evidence and data. This is really whether private sector can help. Because as cindy mentioned, we need more irregular migration opportunities that are labor based. So the private sector can match skills between what is the labor gap between countries, with countries that can export and train individuals. So this is where it can benefit a whole industry in terms of the private sector third to be able to be these brokers. You can train the laborers, place the laborers, and ultimately it benefits those countries that really need additional skills skill sets, and those who have a surplus of individuals that do not necessarily have those opportunities at home. Back to you have a right to be able to set those conditions, and make sure that is done with evidence and data and not on the rhetoric that is not just on practical realities. Erol my last question to the panel is if you were to leave the audience with a tweet length take away, based on this conversation or anything else of in iill bring this will put up what mine is, which is part of the report. And while we think about it, i think all of you for taking the time to do this and thanks everyone for taking the time to be here and asking really thoughtful questions. I am struck by the quality of questions asked at these events. Thank you for maintaining that high bar. So we have not started with cindy yet. Actually, ky. Up to bea heads transparent, erol gave us a heads up that he would ask us this. So migrants, whether they arent refugees, regular, irregular, to think that our that they are a drain on social services, a study noted 85 of the money is that migrants made stayed within those Host Communities. It stays there in terms of the texas taxes they pay, the rent they pay, food consumption. So therefore, it is an economic boon in terms of what it means for Host Communities. That would be my tweet he and 85 of what all migrants make stay within their Host Communities. Erol i was wondering when you were going to get to the tweet. [laughter] 280 characters. Cindy he gave us a heads up and i did not prepare. So i will and with a note that it is precisely in these most challenging times that we have to reject the politics of fear and reach for hope, light, and optimism. I am did not do any a u. S. Citizen. I did not do anything to earn my passport and earn the ability to fly to 100 plus countries without a visa. There goes god, and there go i. Erol thank you so much to the panelists. [applause] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2019] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] here is a look at our live coverage for friday. On cspan at 12 30 p. M. Eastern, the house will hold a pro forma session. Eastern,. M. Journalists and former white house officials examine the relationship between the press and the trump of measures include our 4 00 p. M. , congressional observers talk about the 116th congress and its effectiveness as a lawmaking body. 8 45on cspan 2 at eastern, a discussion on the opioid addiction crisis and its related issues. At 5 00 p. M. Eastern, the senate will hold a pro forma session. Yesterday, the president announced the establishment of command, the militarys 11th combatant command. He was joined in the white house rose garden by Vice President pence, defense secretary mark