Here. Thank you for Crescent Petroleum and for the Global Energy center. Maji has been a person ive been stealing ideas from for a long period of time. He happens to be one of the best thinkers and actors and an analysts of the region. Its always a pleasure to have him here. So thank you so much for being here. Todays event was organized by the councils Global Energy center. Our Iraq Initiative is led by has been our who moderator today. Its been a game changer having abas working with us. Hes one of those rare individual who is understands the workings of the countries hes covering iraq so intimately but also the workings of washington which in many respects is sometimes more difficult to follow. This mornings discussion is iraqs facing the daunting challenge with crisis underway and citizens demanding reform as well as the news just yesterday that Prime Minister adal adomadi will resign. Despite the current unrest and uncertainty of the future iraq has made significant progress in years by carrying out elections about a peaceful transfer of power in the region where this is not the norm. We have to keep reminding ourses of how unique that is. The United States and iraq have a long and complex history. We all know that. Iraqs relations with iran have strained aspects of u. S. Iraq relations. But its more important for us to work togethers as partners. As we saw for example during the mission last week that resulted in the death of the isis leader albaghdadi. The u. S. Operation was one key ingredient for the success of that operation. We dont espn a lot of time on individual bilateral operations in the Atlantic Council across our 13 programs and certains that act on issues in all regions of the world. What we do is we focus on the bilateral relations that we think have outsized importance and theres no doubt that thats the case in iraq and therefore our Iraq Initiative. Today our expert panel will help us understand these dynamics and more. Before i turn the floor over to moderate with our panelists, i would like to briefly introduce them. Former l rahim is a ambassador to the United States as well as a member of our Iraq Initiative committee. Shes the cofounder and president of the iraq institute. Joey hood were always happy when someone can break loose of their government offices to come here. We know how demanding your jobs are. Hes the Principle Deputy assistant secretary of state of these affairs. He spent much of his career working in the middle east and in particular on the arabian peninsula. Hes served as deputy chief mission in iraq and kuwait as well as principle officer in deran, saudi arabia. Maji shafar is the c. E. O. Of the Crescent Group of companies. Serves on the trusty on the arab form for development and the iraq energy institute. He also sits on the board of fellows of Harvard Medical School and the International Advisory board of the princess Start International and of course, the International Advisory board. The just to show the reach of the work that we do together and crescent, today in singapore we held the third workshop for a project called the role of oil and Gas Companies in the Energy Transition. It was held during the Singapore International energy 2019 as part of their think tank round table sessions. The workshop gathered a number of individuals from a variety of Southeast AsianResearch Institutions and low cal representatives of International Oil and Gas Companies and yielded key insightsisms i wont go into them here but there are issues that majid has pushed us us to look more closely at which is how oil and Gas Companies can take a leading role and a very positive role in an Energy Transition driven by broadening and enriching the energy mix through the companys that produce and market them to face challenges such as Climate Change and and other issues. Really thinking into the future. So with that, ill turn the floor over to abas and our panelist. Before do i that let mesa lute masterfully ho has led our middle east programs. Stephanie ali who has been instrumental in working with abas on the set of work around iraq. O over to you, abas. Abbas good morning, everyone. Thank you for being here. I direct the Iraq Initiative. Thank you, fred for these wonderful introductory remarks. And we are honored to have an allstar panel today. And you know,s the it takes that kind of an allstar panel to talk about iraq and the complexities of this country. So without any introductions, we will have a discussion a little bit from this stage and then open the floor for the audience for questions, im sure, everyone has many questions. Indulge thesewill questions and will answer and we will we will do our best to decide or demystify what goes on in iraq. I we really have to recognize everybody in the room. All of you are our friends and people who help us a lot with your presence, with your ideas. But i would be remiss if i do not recognize my good friend and the Advisory Committee member for the Iraqi Initiative dr. Astrabadi. He flew from indiana to join us for this event. Thank you, sir. And again, the ambassadors and the friends all of you are welcome here. And thank you for being here. So let me go with the rule of ladies first. Rahim. To ambassador ambassador, youve seen these events unfold and you are one of the people who have been in this town and elsewhere very informative and contributive to the debate. How do you see the trajectory of these these protests, their context, regional and international, and where do you think they are going in terms of their influence on the political scene in iraq, the government future, possible changes, or are we going to have another wave of protests that will go home and then we will relive this once again . Hopefully not. But im interested to know where you see the future. Yes, lots of question. First of all, lets establish that we are at a crucial and possibly turning point in iraqs political development. Theres no question. I think from october 1st, the protests have created a new narrative, a new scenario and projected a new vision for iraq that we havent had. I wont say since 2003, we havent had for decades. The protests started, of course, as a demand of services, of jobs, and so on. But what was interesting is that as they progressed and as violence began to be practiced against the protestors, the demands changed. And then they became a demand for, you know, Holding People to account for corruption, a demand for resignation and so on. And then, the final thing was a demand for a wholesale change in the political system. So we really are now at the int where theres a direct ideological confrontation between protestors and between the Political Class that has vested interest, the protestors want complete change in all the principles, the system of governance that weve had, the electoral law, the constitution, elections and and and a whole mass of institutions and documents that were, in fact, at the basis of the state after 2003. They want an overhaul of all of this. Die et, an overhaul is metrically opposed to the die metrically opposed to the Political Partys that have become sbreveraged in iraq. Ideological not only physically ut ideologically we have had attempts. And weve had attempts against e Prime Minister and the majeria, there have been attempts to say, ok, we will reform. We will do the things that the protestors are asking for. But so far theres no indication from the establishment that they really intend to go through this wholesale change in the political system. And therefore if we dont have a breakthrough in this confrontation, i dont see where the impasse and i think if the institutions of government and if the Political Class dont respond, were going to have a continuation of the protests, and my concern is that theyre going become more violent partly because there are signs now that some of the protestors are so fed up that theyre willing to go into armed conflict. But even more serious and more eminent in my view is that there may be a confrontation among political armed political groups themselves. Weve already seen some settling of scores particularly nonks shiah militias. And this has not been declared publicly. But it has been understood on the street and in political circles that there are these. Forts or or actions and i think thats the most dangerous thing that can emerge that you have rival militias going against each other under the cover of the protests that really trying to gain the upper hand in a situation of chaos. Thank you. We will go back to some of these impacts in our conversations, and i would like to turn to joey. Last time we sat together in the embassy in baghdad, we had that beautiful, you know, outside seating and, you know, baghdad was looking more peaceful. That was in may 2019. And then i went back to baghdad n september and october. Actually i witnessed the first week of the protest. And i visited the ambassador. And we were talking about how things were looking better. There were two forums in baghdad in september. Both of them were talking about the economy and energy, and like what used to be normally conferences were about security and all of the other things, the green zone was open and you could drive through. And it wasnt like youre driving through the tunnels with the t wall. And all of a sudden, something one thing led to another and the volume cainor and things changed. And i was thinking would by able to get out of the airplane before they take it over . My thing is from the American Point of view, iraq has provided time and again so many assistance, packages to iraq on security and on other aspects. There is some strategic framework agreement. And the the u. S. Was instrumental with the defeat of isis even though the iraqis did all of the heavy lifting and fighting. But it was very important for u. S. And International Communities engagement. The secretary made a statement of support for iraq in general. But my question is where is the United States government now stands in terms of the the protests. The government measures, and also in light of the fact that, you know, the United States must be very careful when the sensitivities of the region are important, probably some people argue that the u. S. Should not publicly give any support for protests or any of that search would not be viewed in different lens. But on the other hand, the u. S. Has is on long tradition of support of of Democratic Change and a reasonable pace hich iraq has been going on an what do you see the u. S. Government or where is the u. S. Government position right now on both of these issues. First of all, thank you for having us here, abbas. Its an honor be with you. And to be amongst so many mentors and friends and once again to say hello to the iraqi viewer who are watching. We are all watching very carefully and closely with whats happening in the country. Were very concerned about it. I think you heard us say that we call for nonviolence for both sides. The right of the protestors to demonstrate respectfully should be respected. And that the demonstrators should also not be violent, not be carrying arms. Because iraq is lucky to be one of those few places in the middle east where people can express their views loudly in the streets. And as long as they do it peacefully, this is an extremely good way for the government to really know wham its people are thinking and what theyre passionate about. And to adjust course. And we recognize that we have to talk ful about how we about these things because there are people who are ready to recognize us and involve us in all sorts of conspiracy theories. But the reality is that we remain ready to help iraq bailed stable and strong and sovereign government just like weve been doing. We think this is what protestors want. And this is what we want as well. And were ready to work with the government in putting together the any sort of reasonable response to the protestors demands, which we started to hear some of from his excellency the president yesterday. We would be interested to know what kind of timeline hes thinking about. We would be interested to know how we can be of assistance through the International Organizations or directly or bilaterally. Were ready to help. Thank you. Majid, you represent a sector thats the most important sector in iraq because its not all them at least the, you know, numbers go from 85 to 95 percentage of the iraqis where the revenue is coming from. The Petroleum Industry and this cannot really stand without the support and participation of International Corporations that work in iraq. And that contribute to the iraqi economy. There are also other businesses and energy like the ones who will deal with electricity and other projects that iraq is trying to accomplish and also, the industries. Now, stability is very important for the work of these organizations and for your companies and corporations. You are just one of those and you take a importantn important part of the iraqi industry there. There is also the ability not only for the International Corporations, even things like the sports events, you know, the Iraqi National team was supposed to play in bazra and then now i think its moved to another city or probably out of the country. So this is really, stability is very important. How do you think the international business, whether they are investors or corporations who work in iraq on the field, view this and what are their sensitivities, their apprehension, maybe, or their fear also around the risks that can be coming out of this practice stability and also to the continuation of the government . Thank you. So, thank you for the easiest question so far. I am never going to do easy questions. To talk about, you know, iraq taking whats below the ground and getting it up rather than unfortunately those who are above the ground being put into it and i hope and pray that iraq achieves more of the former and less of the latter. So the Energy Potential for iraq is huge. The proven reserves are 140 billion of oil and that number i believe is well below the reality. The exploration is being done, its still very much in its infancy, the industry there, despite the fact that were in the 21st century and despite all the challenges iraq is now achieving five Million Barrels a day, half a Million Barrels a day from the kurdistan region. Really, other than the United States, its been the big growth of Global Oil Production and certainly the Fastest Growing in opec, and thats despite lack of legislation, the war on isis, the internal political wrangling over revenue sharing, the political infrastructure, all of those challenges achieved such incredible growth of main of production. And it can sort out the necessary things, what is really possible. I think we as a company, were certainly very committed to iraq, never stopped producing in the kurdistan region. We were awarded three more blocks with the federal government, including the difficult area which has been liberated from isis, but we feel able to work there. And its really about Service Delivery and thats one of the big asks of the demonstrators, also. I think that jobs is key and the fact that growth has been insufficient not only for iraq, but around the world youre seeing this, because of insufficient growth and major since 2003 particularly in electricity, and clean water in the south was a big issue, especially in basra. And it is a shame that despite such amazing resources that hasnt been achieved yet. A lot of work is underway to try and, you know, achieve better delivery of these basic services, but the political system also needs to get together and take some Strategic Decisions and some political decisions. I think that one of the things thats been holding back the progress in the oil and gas sector is there isnt still this agreement in the constitution, which is revenue sharing basically for us as a population. There was an attempt years ago to package all the legislation in together. It was unfortunately failed, probably was too big an ask. Probably makes more sense, first, how are you going to share the pie and then after that, everybody has an interest in growing the pie. Right. And thats more on the investment laws. So theres a lot of work that still needs to be done, but no doubt iraq has Great Potential in this sector. Let me follow up on this and one of the issues that you have to deal with as International Corporations and the oil sector and in the petroleum sector, is this lack of legislation that can make things easier for iraqis and also for their international partners. And you are sort of steady and closely following the iraqi legislative system. What would make it easier for both sides . In other words, looking for something that is fair for both the iraqis and for the International Corporations to be included in that law . So, i think on the again, two separate debates. One is the political one internally, how does iraq split the revenues from oil and gas. And the principle. It is clear. It is proportional to population and putting it into place. Draftsyou start putting in the parliament, you have to have political agreements, and it has not taken place yet. And then about investors in fiscal terms. There. As been evolution there were complaints from the International Oil companies about the fiscal terms. It was not just about the rate of return, it was the structure, a Service Agreement where it was cost plus, and the investors became contractors. They had no intent to keep costs down. They had little incentive to innovate and optimize beyond that, because they got a dollar a barrel. , theireral ministry current model which they haven t expertise in is more of the investor agreement. And they put a price on natural guarantees including with crude. Many countries in the middle east have failed to price the gas, and not surprisingly there is little investment in that sector. Iraq has huge potential in natural gas. Not only to meet its own needs for power and industry, but to be a major exporter by pipeline. Well, thank you for that. Back to iran. You mentioned, i mean, i gave you so many questions and i realize that, but that what we do as academics. Im trying to learn to be in this business. You know, because you need to really test whats there and that, you know, how doing from how to go from talking to students to experts, thats a different story. But let me follow up on my questions and your answers. People talk about two scenarios that are plausible. The demands of the protesters and many people in Political Parties, especially those who , andtheir eyes on his job they think realistically they can have it. There are those more interested in reform. They think the resignation of the government of the Prime Minister will put iraq through a the parties would not be able to form another government for a long time. Protests, and protests mean a lot more destruction. The country will be halting its activities for a long time. People,l hurt so many especially unintended victims who are waiting to have government. And the business as well. Men on theneed ground to meet the protests. Theeen these two, resignation of the continuation of the government and the parliament, and have them be the agents of change and reform, where do you lean, and what do you think is the more realistic and plausible scenario . Well, i think its important to always keep in mind that ahmadi became Prime Minister as a compromise solution and that there was no single block that nominated him. It was an agreement between the southern block. And they got together and chose somebody who was seen as an independent. In other words, not belonging to either of their political groups. And the outset, this looked like a sensible arrangement. And he arrived as a Prime Minister with a legacy of a political system that has been hobbled and dysfunctional and certainly not highly regarded by the population. So he did come with this badge or he had to deal with this baggage. The fact that he didnt have the backing of a single major party, rather than being an asset has now proved to be a liability because theres nobody defending him. And even who originally was a great backer came out openly a few days ago and said, he should resign. The problem is, there are mechanisms. I dont think that the restignation of the government is going to create this vacuum. The problem is not that. The problem is what is going to replace them . And if you are looking from the perspective of the protesters, it is not enough for one individual to be scapegoated and to resign if in fact the replacement is going to be also somebody from the powers that be. They are looking for radical change. I hate to use this term. They want to see a paradigm shift in the politics of iraq, okay . So the resignation on its own, unless its tied to a much more farreaching and Broader Vision of reform, is not going to help. The dissolution of parliament and early elections, if we follow the same electoral law with the same or a similar type of Electoral Commission and the same party law, Political Party law, and thats an important element, if those remain unchanged, we are going to reproduce the same type of parliament. All of those are not going to be the type of reform that people want, and theyre calling for. And not only the people, but it has been very clear about the type of farreaching radical reform thats required. We have the resignation in lebanon, okay, fine, and this is probably a tactical move because there are others in the government that he wanted to get rid of and so as he resigns, the entire government falls, and so on, so he can get rid of some faces, but in iraq, its different. You cant have one man resigning, only to be reproduced by somebody similar. And so, what do i see . Perhaps a resignation of the government. Hes offered to resign once a replacement is found, according to the speech by the president yesterday. Letter heame from a sent on the 29th. That is how the frame of now, the talk is, lets go back a few days. Were talking now in terms of days in iraq because every day, every hour seems changed. There was discussion and an agreement that they should find a replacement. There were reports by reuters and others that on wednesday in baghdad, met with them and said, no, you should not change so there are all sorts of interests at play here. And the picture is becoming more complicated. Will he resign . Will he not resign . If he resigns, who will replace him . So on and so forth. I think an orderly transition with reforms in the electoral law, in the commission, in the party law, early elections based on those, and a caretaker government, whether its a government thats under him or somebody else, to see it through a certain period of time is, to my mind, is the most orderly way to do it. Now, the problem with the president s speech, as you mentioned, is it was a little short on details, but i understand because theyre going through consultations and processes, but more to the point, it had no timeline. If, as some people have suggested, elections should take place in two years, i can tell you that thats not going to be satisfactory solution. There has to be a short timeline in order to light a fire under people and to keep their focus. So is it going to be a revolution . Is it going to be an evolution . Perhaps by mynature im more of an evolution, that needs to be anchored in solid steps of reform, legislation, followed by elections within six months may be, and then a review of the constitution. And the president s speech, everything has to be done through the constitutional frame work because iraqs countries countries inother the region, the only way you can have change is by some means that are extraordinary. Iraq has a process in place and can serve for an evolutionary change, in fact. And joey oh, sure, please. May i comment on this. Article 64 of the constitution, which my friend knows by heart, not the article, the whole constitution. [laughter] article 64, which ive read and reread in the last few days. There are two mechanism for dissolving parliament, what they said was i will agree to a to early elections which presumes the solutions parliament. There are two ways of solving parliament, either by a vote of twothirds. Theyre never going to do that, why should they . Or by a dual request from the Prime Minister and the president. And that certainly is possible. Now, the elections are supposed to take place 60 days after the dissolution. That seems to be a short timeline, but it can be worked around. So its possible to dissolve parliament, but i would like i would have liked the president , who has actually been the person who has really been able to preserve his credibility with the population. And i think, ambassador will probably push back on the reading of it because article 64, its kind of like the constitution, you have to read it backward and forward and bring some friends to help you. Thats right, yes. And thats what it is is basically one of the readings that the ambassador has to it and he is a legal scholar of great stature, i always defer to him on those issues, basically that one third of the parliament can initiate and twothirds. Requires a twothirds vote. And the other the Prime Minister would require a dissolution of the parliament, but it has where the ambassador goes. It has after the president approves it, it has to have a two third of the parliament to approve that, but means really there is no substance to this authority that the constitution gives to the president because the parliament agree to do that, but i agree with you, 64 is really and also the ambassador always bring was it 56, i . 56 where it gives the parliament fouryear term and basically you have to interpret one with the other. So, im sure the floor will have many questions on that from the audience. Now, joey, let me ask you in light of the same arguments that she was making, basically the United States was looking at iraq and it has two things major areas to focus on. One of them is internal politics of iraq and where it is going, all of the u. S. Investment in iraq and treasure and International Relations or bilateral relations and the potential of u. S. And iraq relations and also the regional security, regional development, what goes on in syria, turkey and in general. What is the order of concern the United States is looking at from possible threats and risks and possible consequences of what goes on in iraq if the scenario goes, god forbid, to something worse or something thats a prolonged process . Well, it goes back to our fundamental goal for our policy with iraq, which is a strong, stable and sovereign Iraqi Government because if youve got that, then youve got a great environment for american businesses to work in the oil sector or in other sectors of the economy. If youve got that, then youve got a strong iraq that can push back on, as ive said before, its totally abnormal for a special forces commander from a foreign country to be coming into another country and meeting with Political Party leaders and telling them anything. You know, a strong, stable and sovereign iraq should be able to push back on that and say get out of here. And to be able, also to project stability into places like syria by keeping a Strong Border and by enabling Counterterrorism Operations across the border so that organizations like isis cant resurge. So, thats our goal and what were putting into it is well and publicly known because we have to go up to congress and say, may we have some money to do this . So you can look up these numbers. Were the biggest humanitarian donor, the biggest donor to the Iraqi Security forces, the biggest donor to the mining assistants and have been for many years. What form does iranian assistance take . Who knows what that looks like . How much money are they putting into it . How much are they taking out . Nobody knows these things because of the way they do business and we would like to see that change and change through a strong and sovereign Iraqi Government, and i believe that thats exactly what the protesters are saying when they say they want a country, a nation, this that cant be translated into english precisely. They dont want to be a battlefield. They dont want to be an asset. They dont want to be a throughway for anybody else and we completely agree with them. All right. I would love to go for more, but i think i need to give the audience a chance to also ask and see what we can get in or where we can get the conversation going. Ambassador. President of the Gulf States Institute and former ambassador to iraq and a good colleague of joey hood. This is for ambassador rahim, but also for all of you on the panel. I have been struck that the demonstrations, the emotions have largely been in baghdad and south. One of the questions i have is what is the attitude and participation in the kurdistan region, in nineveh, in anbar, and how do they view and participate in this protest against government inefficiency and how are they participating in the discussions of potential potential reform . Thank you, ambassador. Actually this question is so central to the problems that ail iraq. And ive been thinking about this and trying to disentangle. First of all, let me just say preemptively, that theres been from the students in support, there was also a letter of support signed by about 100 kurdish members of the kurdish intelligence here in support. So, where there have not been protests in kurdistan, there have been statements of support. In the last few days, they were also some small protests that came out in support of the protests in the south. Not their own protests, but these were solidarity protests. They were quickly snuffed out by iss, by the Iraqi Security forces. So, going back to this question, why is it happening . First of all, because in sunni areas in 2012 when they protested, they were immediately branded as terrorists, and so on, and they were mercilessly crushed by maliki if you recall. And then they were accused of being the pathway, the protests were accused of being the pathway of daesh into iraq. And so the last thing that the people in anbar or even nineveh want to be attractions of want to attract accusations of allowing terrorists to come in, so, they are very hesitant to expose themselves to these accusations, so thats one reason. I think the deeper reason is that the shia feel this is our government. This is shialed government. And this government, this shialed government and lets face it, it is, came to power in 2003 to respond to our grievances as shia. To elevate us as shia from the oppression of Saddam Hussein and so on. They have taken all the spoils, the shia leaders, we have had nothing. Basra is in a dismal state and is predominantly shia. All the south is predominantly shia. Theres a feeling that this government which is supposed to be ours and which is supposed to represent us has let us down. Now, for the sunnis, i dont think there is the same sense that this is our government. Theres much more participation by the sunnis now than we saw after 2003. And i think that the sunnis are much more part of the political process, the Decision Making process, but for the mass of sunnis, it is not yet something that they feel they can appropriate themselves. And then, of course, dont forget that all of these provinces have just come out from under daesh. They have their own problems, their own needs of reconstruction of bringing home idps. There really is a distinction, and this this tension goes to the heart of the problem that iraq faces today. I do not have the exact wording in front of me, but it could be interpreted as saying dont forget this is it just about the shia area. This is about all of iraq and all the components of iraq and that was a very Important Message to hear. I just wanted to build on something which was said, you know, the constitutional reform, electoral law reform, these may all be required. I am not an expert. Notiraqi constitution is perfect, but none of them are. Its not the only country think about what you can get twothirds vote to remove the chief of government at the moment. [laughter] but actually those will take time, a lot of time, and i dont see how theyre going to address the immediate needs of these demonstrators because actually, the crisis of legitimacy of Iraqi Government now is not one of democratic legislation or the constitution. And those were asking for, there are some, see it as we change the whole system. But what theyre really asking for, jobs, service, delivery and lack of corruption. But taking a year or two to change electoral law or change the constitution is not going to help with those. What i see with where the problem lies is in the executive, and the Service Delivery, by the government, is failing. And that needs kind of, emergency counsel self gratian, Emergency Task force on electricity delivery, giving them the freedom. If necessary, some outside expertise, and having an action plan and delivering. Delivering, and somehow keeping and somehow keeping those immune to political interference and corruption and that kind of pulling this way and that way all the parties, which has so far stymied the governments progress. Can i respond . I hate to disagree with you but i think the demands of the protesters have gone beyond asking for jobs and services. I think that was true on october 1, 2nd, 3rd. And i think, as i tried to show, they have changed. Now, keep in mind that i think it was october 4, the Prime Minister came out and said we are going to create more government jobs. The government is already in deficit, and i dont and the Public Service sector, the Public Sector is bloated. So, i dont know how theyre going to create jobs and what theyre going to pay, how theyre going to pay for them. The Prime Minister also talks about a new package, an additional package of social welfare. And in that speech, he tried to respond to the services demands of demonstrators. But i think by then, we had gone beyond that. And i dont think any kind of Service Delivery they cant create Better Health overnight. They cant create better schooling overnight. They cant create a million jobs overnight. I think that takes more time than reforming the electoral law and, im not talking about the constitution, reforming the electoral law, that having new elections and having a new government. I think that can be done in a shorter period of time. You also spoke about creating jobs and improving Services Without the interference and the derailing effect of corruption. That youre absolutely right, but i dont think its possible to do that unless you have a major reform of the political system. Always this, you have the spark and then you have the early commands, then once people are on the streets, they raise the ceiling and then, just like in negotiations, then you have to go back and this is going to be really an ever evolving demands on counter, offers and counter offers, and also there are so many moving targets and people are trying to i think we are in agreement. My point was not that you can assuage these demonstrations by the government offering to hire tens of thousands of more. My point was what they want. That, you know, changing the electoral law alone is not going to be enough. They see that as a means to an end, perhaps, but actually you cant wait for that. I heard from a senior, one of the most senior iraqi politicians at the moment, andy and he described it quite well. He said on the political front, we are actually in a good place. And thats not what we were ten 10 years ago. But on the economic side, we came from a system of socialist, state, centralized control for three decades plus, where the citizen had no rights, no freedoms, but job security, Service Delivery, and all that. We took that away and we declared in the constitution and aspiration for a marketbased Economy Private sector and growth and capitalism and so on. We took two steps forward and stop, right . So we either continue and achieve that aspiration or go back to what we have. And really, you know, become socialists again, beginning support the citizens. If we stay in this limbo, phony state, they will not accept it and tolerated. He said that a year ago and, unfortunately, no productive hybrid of the two. Ambassador. We have a microphone. Thank you very much for the very fascinating discussion, but if i could push back a bit again if i may, picking up on what majid was just saying, the last few remarks he made. You talked about evolutionary change and you begin evolutionary asked if youre not the only evolutionary asked in iraq. The parties are also extremely, Political Parties are extremely revolutionary way that at least three different sets of electoral laws in iraq starting with the very first electoral law which the United Nations to up for iraq, which treated iraq as a single district, whatever it was, proportional representation. The basic parties that been that have elected to parliament havent fundamentally changed, notwithstanding changes in the electoral laws over the last 15 years. What gives you any and thats precisely what the parties do. Every time they electoral laws change, they evolve to adapt to the new environment and come up to the top again. And weve been dealing with the same personalities, more or less , for years. 16 what makes you optimistic that changing the electoral law will yield any of the salvatori results that you hope for . It depends on what changes you make. And this becomes a rather technical discussion, which i would love to have with you. But i think there had been some ideas floated that, remember, its not a bad thing to have Political Parties. And you know, there are Political Parties in all democracies. It is a question of how you elect your representatives. And i think there have been suggestions for an electoral law that is more reflective of the voters choice. Im sorry, i dont want to go into it because there are different models that are being and i know in the president s Office Working with others they are looking at options. Thank looking at options. Sir . Thank you. I fear that you cant fight somebody politically with nobody, and i worry about the demonstrations at the moment have not coalesced behind an individual or a set of principles. And i think you said they keep moving the goalposts, and ambassador, you said things have changed from one day to another. To me, to avoid falling into more violence, i think the they really need a leader. Gandhi, somebody that can coalesce the opposition behind him, behind a single set of demands before they can move someplace. Is this right . So, i dont know. We were actually debating this interesting global phenomenon now, that whether its rack, let whether its iraq, lebanon, algeria, hong kong, chile or further afield you dont seem to get leaders anymore. They get organized to social media. It doesnt mean they cant achieve change and in the middle east algeria, lebanon, maybe iraq, theyve brought down the government. But what you can achieve beyond that is not yet clear. But it seems to be, i dont know the answer. But we live in a world where you dont have any more, or maybe you dont need, i dont know, mondelloondello mandela and the figures here i defer to more experienced speed is i dont have more expert in revolution but expert in revolution but [laughter] but i think you can die these things together. Ty tie these things together. People are coming up and protest because they feel their elected representatives are not reflective of their views and so theyre coming out and yelling those views. And so thats what i reform electoral system needs to do so that people know who they voted for, who represents them in a part of it, who they where they see something they dont like. I know who i can do that too in the u. S. Congress who represents me, but no iraqi can say the same thing about the council of representatives. Im sorry, you wanted to i want to say that there are slogans, or branding, if you want. They may be not be individuals, but jerry mentioned and i think thats a very important and i translate, its not country. Its not nation. Its more like the latin patria. So, its something you owe allegiance to, that you believe in, that youre emotionally tied to. This has become a major slogan. And i think that this type of branding, which is, im sure there are people doing this and thinking up these slogans and so on, or imagine unhappy, im going out to claim my rights. I think this has become a sort of glue for these protests that, sure, it doesnt replace no leadership, but it certainly gives the protests coherence pic a certain coherence. And i think that may be helpful. Right here. Two questions, one for the ambassador. You believe there is something missing in the demonstrations, the socalled iraqi identity . Do you believe that the changes that the demonstrators, they want, is going to bring a iraqi identityan rather than the shia or the ethnic identity for the country . And my second question for joey, id like to hear your assessment about do you believe he will be part of the problem or part of solution or whats happening in iraq . Thank you. Yes. [laughing] youre done . Oh yes, im done. Please. [laughing] ok. Ill answer. Please go ahead. You know, ive been really quite surprised. Its been sorted for years people say theres no iraqi identity, theres no national identity. And they say the same thing about lebanon, that nobody believes in a lebanese identity. Everybodys just thinking about well, im christian, im muslim, im shiite. Everybody has just doubted that. Ive always i feel both lebanon and iraq. There is, in fact, an identity, but that it has been submerged by a Political Class whose interests is in fragmenting this identity and undermining it into primary allegiances. And i think the really good things about the protesters in iraq and similarly, weve been talking about how iraq, lebanon, lebanon mirrors iraq and so on. But i think the healthy thing that ive been seeing emerge in iraq is that suddenly [inaudible] and all the slogans and billboards and flags that carry the iraqi flag as opposed to any other flag, and that declare no to sectarianism, no to fear, that this really shows that an iraqi identity exists and that its trying to break out from the chains or the pressures that have been put on it in order to fragment it. And i think this is an extremely healthy, healthy sign here and if theres anything im really encouraged by is, its that. Im also encouraged that christians have also shown support. Some kurds have shown support. People in him on have in him on have shown support. Yes, they havent come out and protest that i tried to explain that i believe in, but there is a National Solidarity in the name of this. Actually this the name of this. Actually, this question is for rend and for majid, as joey is my boss twice removed. Rend and majid, do you think there will be a moment where the Political Parties would say enough is enough, and lets crush the protesters even more . A la whats happening in iran, in tehran in 2009 or in china in 1989 . You go first. Ladies first. [laughing] oh, dear. You commented earlier about i said theyd go at each other. Political parties want to preserve their interests, theres no question about that. Now, how far will they go to achieve that . Weve already had hundreds of dead. Nobody knows the exact number. But certainly hundreds, thousands of ruins. Of wounded. How far will the armed Political Parties, can you know, the communist party is an armed but there are Political Parties that are. How far are they willing to go to quell the protests . What will the backlash be . And i think, by the way, the here, that the response of the International Community is key. Because when the special representative, the special representative in iraq has produced two reports. The human rights repertoire has duced one report if it produced one report. Amnesty international has produced a report yesterday. I think the International Community, heavens, Mitch Mcconnell mentioned it in the senate yesterday. In australia, its been raised in parliament. The response of the International Community is going to be key to how far the repression can go. I think that is going to be a crucial element. I dont have much to add to that. Of course, everybody hopes and prays that there will not be violence and lives lost. The sheer scale of the demonstration and the fact that they are across the south gives them significant legitimacy, and any violence against them will delegitimize whoever commits it, and their backers. And that needs to be taken into account. I agree. The gentleman in the middle the gentleman in the middle there, i didnt mean to dismiss his question. But were willing to work with anyone and iraq who is willing to work for iraq. And i think what youre seeing seeing iraqis ask for now is the same thing, but also disentangle religion from politics from malicious. All armed groups need to be under the control of the central government. Thats a fact. And everyone agrees with that i think, between u. S. Government and the Iraqi Government. The disentangling of religion from politics, we heard try to talk about earlier how some of the coalitions and parties are now cross sectarian. There needs to be more of that so the people to look at a particular party or party leader and say theyre only for the sheer or their they are only for the sunni arabs or the kurds or whatever. Thats what iraq will have evolved into a much more Representative Democracy and thats what you want to support. Thank you. Thank you very much. Wonderful discussion. I have two questions to majid. Iraqi protesters have been nonviolent, particularly in just two days ago following, im sure youre watching every detail in iraq, just two make days ago i heard that somebody, the protesters, calling to go to the oilfields. And we know that. Some of the protesters have closed City Councils in the name of the iraqi people, you know. To what extent you see this really serious and may influence the political scenes and the economy in iraq . I cante were claim to be fully uptodate. Ive actually been in the u. S. The last couple of days and traveled a lot, but what i have read is the recent reports that came out that said the workers had gone on strike. But actually it turned out that they were demonstrated on their day off, which was amazingly responsible. [laughter] so the did not no, i mean they didnt want to harm iraqs production. But at the same time, they wore their uniforms and that caused the confusion. They wore their overalls and hard hats and they marched together with their Company Slogan in support of what the demonstration, but they did on the day off. So far, there hasnt been any impact. There has been, in the past of course, roadblocks, demonstrations outside facilities and this is because they know that this is a huge concern to the government and this will get into National Attention very quickly, which it does. In 1979, once an ioc workers went on strike, bashar fell within 24 hours because thats the lifeblood, as i said, unfortunate of these economies is still the oil and gas. But we havent seen any impact yet, and what we have seen has been peaceful protests and not violence against Indy International investors or around these facilities, as far as ive heard. Thank you. Im the krg representative. Thank you. Its been a very educational and fascinating discussion. Absolutely, i think theres total sympathy and empathy with the protesters across kurdistan, some of the political leaders have also made statements that their grievances are legitimate, also calling for an end to violence on both sides. I want to make one short comment and then ask the question. I would argue that the sunnis and kurds have already had their protests. As rend, you mentioned the sunnis previously protested and they were crushed brutally. You could argue that the kurdish referendum on independence was a form of protest. It was also a positive thing. We have a spirit of independence, ive been told like texas. But also, i think it was a protest. It was a protest against being not really part of the system and not really being represented. So, i would argue that the kurds and sunnis have had their protests. They were dealt with in whatever way they were dealt with. Now its the turn of the shia and i hope their protests will be listened to and will, in fact, improve things for all of us in iraq, whoever we are. Now, my question is, how would you assess to all of the panel how would you assess the reaction of the immediate neighbors of iraq . Is their reaction a cause for celebration or commiseration . Immediate what . Immediate neighbors of iraq. How has been there reaction to the protests . You know im going to talk about iran. Go ahead. Im not going to assess the reaction of kuwait to the protest. Weve seen all the reports as i mentioned earlier, soleimani flying in and giving advice. If i were a protester, this is exactly what i would be saying. Id be pointed to and saying this is what i dont want. I want my own country. I dont want someone else come in your telling us how to run it. And i think youve seen from the regime in tehran over the years have dealt with protests. The recce people iraqi people are saying were not going to have that. There had been a couple hundred deaths that we have deplored, and the iraqi people have said were not going home, were not going to be cowed by that. Iranians aref the thinking of trying to handle the protests and iraq the way to do in the own country, they need to think again. And i wish that they would not interfere in this and allow the iraqis to peacefully demonstrate and tell there, how they feel. If you sort of look around iraqs neighbors, who do we have . The kuwaitis certainly did not want to get involved in any way. Nor do the saudis, moving, you know. The jordanians, of course, are impacted because theres a disruption in iraq, which affects the trade and so on and so forth. And im sure the jordanians are also afraid that the breakdown can allow daesh to make renewed inroads in iraq. This is always a fear. Then youve got syria. Syrias got its own problems. Turkey, which for whom the kurdish issue is the paramount issue, as you very well know. And therefore, syria and turkey, that is their primary concern right now, which again leads us to iran. I would say iran is the one neighbor that has a direct, imminent interest in what is going on in iraq. You know, i dont want to go too far in assigning responsibility, but when you look at, you sort of do a para plum of iraqi surroundings, you will see either people, either coaches countries dont want to get involved. Just keep me away. Or theyre too busy with other stuff right now. And that leaves iran. Fortunately iran has a very strong interest in maintaining the status quo. Thats just a fact. I dont have anything to add. I think whats interesting is every time iraqis had demonstrations which were triggered by electricity, 50 degrees, no electricity, people are fed up, and you always historically, you know, monarchy fell in july, july seem to be hot month. Whats interesting is that was a triggered by iraq. Iraq had a much better some of electricity this year. Were in november. Its not a time when the temperatures and associate temperatures are high so does seem to be really about, as rend said, theres something systemic thats wrong, that is felt that is wrong, and they need the system to change. Because the way its going out its not delivering on their aspirations. Right. Speaking of electricity, actually last night we lost power and i had all night long to this point i got ready on candlelight and ive never done that. Then i was looking, i called louis and i said we dont have electricity. He said i will get to you once i you are right. Its really deeper than just electricity. We have one last question and then i will have three quick questions and we will wrap up. Yes. That was the minister of electricity in iraq. Im Emily Meredith from energy and intelligence. I was hoping you could talk about, we heard the u. S. Prevail upon iraq to become more energy independent. What youve seen in terms of progress and what else washington is looking for on that issue. Well, i wish i could point to more progress. There have been a few deals signed with european and American Companies, but we need to see more progress as quickly as possible. Its just unconscionable that iraq flares so much gas into the atmosphere that could be captured and turned into electricity for its people and then turns around and purchases electricity and natural gas from iran. Thats exact like carrying coal to the newcastle. There are plenty of American Companies with the Technology Available to help them do that, and we think thats the best route when youre looking to reduce corruption, as well because American Companies have a strong reputation for transparency. But i would also say that iraq has shown its capability, as you mentioned, majid. Its producing at historic levels. Its never produced this much oil. So, these things can be done. They just need to be a series focus on it, and thats again with the poachers is i think have been saying, that nobody is taking seriously what we are asking for. Hopefully they will now. So i so, i think the key is to focus on costs as far as iraq to budget and reliability. Absent politics. Joeys right, theres plenty of local Gas Resources which could fuel electricity. You mention the flaring in the south, but also in the center and the north theres a lot of associated gas. Were now producing 400,000,000 cubic feet per day in the kurdistan region. There are some power plants that are affiliate built one of, you do, less than 100 kilometers within federal iraq which are dd gas. Were taking our production up to a billion cubic feet a day over the next few years. And part of that could be supplied to federal iraq, a fraction of the cost of imported gas. But i mentioned the arab blocs, theres gas fields there and we initialed those contracts over a year ago, still waiting for just the signatures so we can get on. Within a year, we can be producing a couple hundred billion cubic feet of gas. Its definitely important it actually the shortages are but actually the shortages are further north and theres gas there. None of those it could be rapidly brought on, just need some decisions to move forward. Very short answers, but not yet become i know. Try to come iraqi energy independence, a shortterm, midterm, or longterm, or hopefully not never . Could and should be short term. And by that i mean a couple of years. It really shouldnt take more than that to enable selfsufficiency. And the import was supposed to be temporary anyway. At least thats how it was declared way back when. And, you know, colton newcastle when we heard some ideas, maybe import elegy or import from the neighbors, come on, that makes no sense at all. Joey, i know you have a meeting to go to. Quick question really. Were speaking about possibilities of getting the basrah country open, now with the current situation. Do you think you will continue to speak about that or do you think this is a possibility . The consulate did a lot of work in iraq, actually, from days of steve walker. Where do you think that is . You said i cant say yes, and i cant say no. Can i say maybe . [laughter] no, the United States remains committed to our presence in iraq. Thats one of the reasons we are building a stateoftheart facility for a new consulate in irbil. Were not going anywhere, but right now we cant talk about taking the consulate off of the suspension of operations, but we hope to be able to have that conversation soon when theres peace, theres stability, theres a strong sovereign government thats in charge of security throughout all of iraq and not other actors. And rend, do you see a finish of the term of the government roadmap in hist speech accomplished by the or the protesters will have their way . The roadmap is designed to meet the protesters demands but it doesnt go far enough and is not specific enough. So, if that is developed, and if the president can actually get the protesters going then i think there is a possibility of comforting the protesters. But all i can say is i dont know. Its because things are dynamic. Theyre changing and we dont know. Thats one step far away from joeys maybe. But i think we have to be honest. It has been a fascinating discussion. Thank you for our panel. They do all for attending. I appreciate it. Thanks a lot. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] the house will be in order. Has been years, cspan providing america unfiltered coverage of congress, the white house, the supreme court, and Public Policy events from washington, d. C. And around the country so you can make up your own mind. Gritted by cable in 1979, cspan is brought to you by your local cable or satellite provider. Cspan, your unfiltered view of government. Contenders for the 2020 president ial nomination spoke last night at the Iowa Democratic parties National Liberty celebration dinner in des moines. In this portion of the event, well hear from pete buttigieg, joe biden, elizabeth