Listening in washington and around the country and around the world. I am mike ohanlon at the Brookings Institution. We are honored to host mark esper who, after being introduced by my boss, retired general john allen, he will offer remarks on how the covid19 is affecting the armed forces and anything else. I will ask questions and then i will hear from you. If you have not already submitted your welcome to do so. Apologies that we may not get to all questions. Ado, let me hand the body the baton to john allen. Good morning. My name is john allen and i am the president of the Brookings Institution and it is my great pledge to welcome you all to , featuring dr. Mark esper. Esper was sworn in as the 22nd secretary of defense on 2019. 0 323, he served as a secretary of the toy from november 20, 2017 the summer of 2019. He is no stranger to service. He is a 1986 west point graduate and upon graduation he was commissioned in the infantry and that makes at least two infantrymen on this call. In the 101st airborne thesion and participated in cherishedwar with the screaming eagles. He commanded a Rifle Company in the Airborne Battalion Combat Team in italy and retired from the u. S. Army in 2007 after spending 10 years on active duty and 11 years with the guard and reserve. For much of the following decade he continued his service in and around the government. Hagel, bill frist and as the deputy secretary of defense under george w. Bush. He would then go to a distinguished career in the Defense Industry most recently serving as the Vice President of government relations. Us we are soall of honored to host you in this crucial conversation. Yours is one of the most important roles in our government and we thank you for all that you are doing to keep us safe and let me commend you for making Artificial Intelligence and tech modernization key priorities for the department of defense. Of utmost issue significance to include brookings as we go to ensure that we maintain our preeminence in these areas around the world. Moving to todays events, secretary asher will provide his own and will be joined in the conversation by Michael Hanlon who also will field questions address via the email eventsgs brookings. Edu. We know you are theoretically neutral on this issue but speaking for the annapolis graduates, we are looking forward to you making happen americas football game. It will be an important moment in the recovery of this country and it will bring some light in the darkness that we have been experiencing. I know you are theoretically neutral so let me saying go navy and go army. Esper thank you so much and thank you for that kind introduction and for hosting me. See youhanlon, good to again and great to be here with you today to talk about the impact of covid19 on the department of defense and the way it is for the pentagon. We are very proud and what they have accomplished in the two months that they have been tackling covid19. On february 1, we activated our Global Pandemic plan and remained ahead of the curve at every turn. Have done of what we at this point in time. We currently have 62,000 Service Members deployed across all 50 states. 45,000 National Guardsmen are active in every single state performing a wide range of tasks. We have thousands of medical professionals, doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists. The army corps of engineers with 2000 folks deployed, expanding capacity and some of the larger cities. Im very proud of what the team has done. We recently redeployed the comfort after a multiweek mission in new york city and the mercy will soon depart from california. To our reached out friends and allies and ive spoken to many of my colleagues about what we can share and how we can help them. We recognize that during this time of crisis, we still have to rely upon friends and allies. We remain as sentinels. They continue to probe our airspace outside of alaska in the northern frontier. In iraq busy into the middle east and afghanistan edit all points and it all points to a turn. We are sidebyside with our allies. We had a discussion with our nato partners about how nato can and should respond to the coronavirus. With what issed happening and we are very cognizant of the impact we have seen and plotting the way ahead. The dod has been very busy. We can talk more about that in our discussion but we are also cognizant about the impact that covid19 may have on the force. Today i can tell you we have had a very low impact on readiness but over time we are anticipating what could be a greater impact if we dont see a change in trajectory from the virus or how we adapt ourselves. Those are all things we are taking into consideration, and i look forward to discussing these things in the coming hour. I am so proud of our men and women in uniform. I would like to thank all of them for what they are doing. Pick up by echoing that last comment in particular. Debt ofwe a huge gratitude to the men and women in the armed forces and all of those who are protecting and keeping us safe. I went to look at this question of readiness and how you will think about ensuring that in the period to come. We can break it into specific categories, people, planning, maintenance, equipment procurement. I would begin with people. You mentioned the force has not been hit thats heart hit that hard so far. I dont know if you would to share any statistics. I think it is about 5000 diagnosed cases in the entire military . And where do you see that going in the months ahead . Esper we can talk to each of those categories. On the people front, one infection is too many, but in terms of a 2 millionstrong military we have had fewer than 5000 infected. Fewer than 100 have been hospitalized. That is a testament to a couple of things. We have a young, fit, healthy force, and secondly we have been issuing guidance since january. I have issued instructions to senior commanders to get out either to service or respective commands. My, as you know, age of those commanders kazakhstan that can amplify or refine the guidance. At this point we are in good shape. It is tragic that we lost two Service Members, but only to the below is fairly good when we look at how we stack up against civilian counterparts. The force is holding up strong when it comes to coronavirus. What concerns me more is the longterm impact as we make adjustments to recruiting and training. Training, howsic new recruits flow into the training. Training. Ses we did a for the most part, we have seen a reduced throughput. That will be something that bears itself out in the long run. We are paying careful attention to that. Shut down the to pipeline. We have a small number of troops quarantining. Other measures are being taken to maintain the flow. Mike all the services are continuing recruiting, bringing in people to the boot camp, even though you suspended it a few weeks ago, is that correct . Sec. Esper that no part point did the id did an active do an active slowdown. They improved capacity to make sure we had sufficient testing, and said repeatedly never did they departmentwide standdown. They have the guidance from us come medical resources, professionals. They adopted it based on their situation. They train in different parts of the country. They have a Different Force flow , so they were able to adapt it to their unique situation. Michael why we while we think about the places people are concentrated the most we know the teddy aircraft air cap the aircraft has been in the news, are there other ships affected and do you anticipate staying ahead of that problem, or do the ships hold a special place in your concern given the proximity of the sailors on board . Sec. Esper statistics show the safest place to be is on a deployed navy ship as opposed to one that is on port. The Teddy Roosevelt has been affected. The second was the uss kidd. We are not sure where she picked it up. It might have been through a counter drug operation. The navy has taken good practices. They have learned from the Teddy Roosevelt. Before ships deploy, it goes through multiple tests. We do not bring a ship back in this it is not not replaced by one going out. We have had a ships that had sailorswe have had a ships thatd sailors infected, but that is not unlike what you might see at an army base or in air force base and air force base where you have sailors in the kingdom that might get infected by the virus. Before they go to see, we bring them in, test, quarantine, and make adjustments. To training have you seen trends in the proclivity of people to join through recruiting or stay in through retention . We know there are competing pressures. On the one hand, people are locked down and not sure about their futures. On the other hand we know a Silver Lining of economic downturns is the department of defense sometimes has an easier time recruiting and retaining people and you need out of that 2 millionperson force, 1. 3 million active, it hundred thousand so reservists, or so reservists, how do those numbers look so far . Well we do not have hard data with regard to recruiting. For a period of weeks, each of the services went to virtual recruiting and they told me the pace has maintained. It has only been several weeks and we will see. On the backside we have equally anecdotal information. We have had those that have asked to stay on board because they like what they are doing or the economic downturn has shown there is greater job security in the military. We will see how that plays around that plays out. Rehearse the back to replace basic training and we know that may, june, july are big graduation months. We want to make sure that they observe absorb as many as we can and put them through the system. Michael thank you. On the issue of training, i know that this is very complicated because my sins, and correct me if i am wrong, and an anecdote or two about how training has been affected, but my sense is small unit training continues p you can train an army squad, one dozen people, or maybe even an air force on that unit a cant, a backseater, you treat those groups almost like small families. You can test, quarantine. My sense is a lot of that training continues, though i have a specific interest in whether Flight Training continues as before. I know as you get to larger echelons, you have much more concern about your ability to prevent a few individuals who may be contagious and unaware from affecting the broader force. My understanding is in some of the bigger units, exercises, forex apple, your own army , upcises, your own armys until now you have suspended the brigade scale exercises. You are looking to resume that. Security forth a systems brigade rotation to the jrotc in the louisiana, which would be a little smaller, but more than 1000 soldiers. Is that basically how you are thinking about it stepbystep bigger exercises, and it is too sure to be too soon to be sure, i am confident, but what is your basic thinking about getting training back to where it needs to be . Sec. Esper you summed it up. The small of units, the more capable we are in preserving the training. The more risk you absorb, you people effective. You are all right you are right, we have had to suspend some training. That is the one area we are concerned about. That is one of the concerns that we look at. We have looked at tearing how our readiness. At the top of the tier are our tier one forces, Strategic Forces were premier counterterrorism forces, Cyber Command forces. All of those types of sailors, marines. Care with extra regard to testing, quarantining. We are preserving the capability that we know we absolutely must have. Michael if i could follow upmichael with a couple of specific examples apologies of some of these get sensitive and you might not be able to respond. Lets take korea we have had the air force raids, and the broader question as President Trump has tried to engage kim jongun, we have seen the fact countries move toward the defect of moratorium. In my opinion it is a good deal for the United States, but leave that aside, i know that you, secretary of defense, have to be concerned about units in a place like korea. Any detail you can offer . In general has done a great job on the peninsula. He implemented with the broad guidance we gave some bold actions to control it. He made restrictions, put other things in place. I can confidently say we are preserving the redness we need with our iraq allies p general abrams has been able to sustain that. I speak with him weekly. You are right. It is all about determining bad behavior deterring bad behavior and theyve been able to do that in preserving the readiness. Michael again, with apologies about pushing too far, they might be able to do companylevel training. Somehave been able to do units. They can do enough to mimic what a fight would be like. Sec. Esper whether it is an aircraft or a naval presence, we bring that as well. It does not have to be stationed on the peninsula to do that. Michael on the subject of asia, i will come back to readiness and covid, but some people have taken note of bombers no longer being permanently stationed on guam but rotating through. Others have wondered what is the pace of u. S. The plumbing in the South China Sea in response to what you said earlier, the increased tempo of some of chinas efforts to exercise its own claimed authority in the South China Sea . Thoughts on how your think about the planets . Sec. Esper since i came into office, i said i would implement the National Defense strategy, a strategy i supported as army secretary. A key tenant of the strategy is called Dynamic Force deployment, maintaining strategic perfectibility to ensure the readiness of your force. We have been taking several steps. She is moving back to deployed forces. What we can do is we have far greater flexibility. She has a multitude of symptoms the bombers perform. In terms ofnwin operational on perfect ability to our adversaries, and at the same time increasing readiness and maintaining assurance to partners. Navy, theds to the admiral has done a great job, picking up his tempo. We have been conducting a lot of surveillance flights. We continue to watch closely what the chinese are doing. As you know, and it has been reported, the chinese have been more provocative in that part of the world. We saw where they sunk a vietnam ease vessel. They are performing other things but not very aggressive consistent with the International Rules we should be following. Admiral davidson has done a good job in terms of maintaining that show of force, deterrence, show of readiness that we need. Michael one last question and i will come back to training if i could. Chinese have gotten pusher, if you will, usually they have handled most encounters with a degree of military professionalism, not all encounters, as we know tragically, going back to 2001 and some other recent events maybe three or four years ago to have their ships sail right in front of hours on a couple of occasions that were dangerous. On the whole, my understanding is most u. S. Military officers and others watching the situation have considered the chinese to be pushy but within certain, more or less, professional bonds. Is that accurate, and do you see whether thebout chinese show any professionalism in these Close Encounters . Sec. Esper it depends. Generally qualified qualify them as classified. Sometimes it might not be unprofessional. It might just be bad seamanship. We have seen cases where they are trying to perform a maneuver that is outside of the skill of the pilot, if you will. It is a mix of things. I talked to my counterpart, the defense minister. It is importantly we maintain lines of communication. We cite bad behavior, not just how they maneuver the ship or airplane, but also when they are taking aggressive actions that are outside of the norms of International Rules claiming territory or space that simply is not theirs. We want to make sure that we maintain, again, the laws of the sea, and the International Rules that have sustained assault really well for decades now. We see the chinese continue to try to bend those, she change those, and shape them in their own favor. Michael if i can return back to training and ask you to explain from a different angle how you were thinking, you already spelled out some of the things you intend to do and how you will perhaps start with units that are in parts of the country that are less affected or have enough Hospital Capacity or if there is a problem, they can respond, as secretary mccarthy explained last week in an event we did with him. I wonder if you will also rely on more testing becoming available and therefore as you get into the summer, when you resume a red flag or brigade location that you have even more ability to virtually test almost everyone going in, or will you rely on the quarantine concept, where you make sure anyone going to a big maneuver is tested and sequestered away for a couple of weeks, and therefore you are pretty confident that you do not need to worry too much about the potential for an outbreak . What are the different pieces of the puzzle, as you look at it . Sec. Esper for the most part, we have not stopped training. Training is critical to maintenance. We have had to make some smart adjustments to get there. To the degree we can train and do some social distancing, we are doing that. The challenge here, and i think you have spoken to it and some of the things you have written and said, each service is different, each training area, training scenario is different. You have to be able to adapt core principles, core guidelines. We have spoken to folks like dr. Fauci and are adopting his principles and guidelines, and giving commanders the ability to do that so they can optimize training. Greaterd, as we develop testing capacity, we are looking at how do we do that . How do we train the force and test the force based on those tears that we i spoke about earlier so forth until you get to the bottom. The last year will be the the er will be the bulk of your force, unless they are displaying symptoms, we wont test him. There is the asymptomatic spreading of the disease. It is something we have known, but what we did not appreciate is we are expressing very high rates in the military with regards to asymptomatic transmission. We have to be careful about that and make sure if something happens we have the medical capacity to identify those persons, quarantine them and get them care as soon as possible. That is the approach we are taking. The longterm view, which is part of the discussion here today, is what do we do the next 6, 12, 18 months. Jointw, the view of the chiefs of staff, the command leaders, they will be a new vaccinentil we have a we are confident in. The sooner we can adapt practices, learn from the viruses and make changes, the better we will be, and the more likely are to maintain a high degree of readiness for the force. Were looking at all of those things right now. Michael before i come back to equipment and maintenance, i want to followup up on a point you made earlier the military is helping with research on vaccines and other treatments. Is there anything you can share on the details . I was up at four dietrich they were already on the front end with their Public Sector and private sector counterparts working on therapeutics. They have been on that since then. Darpa is engaged. Walter reed hospital. We are doing a lot on that end. We are anticipating an operation work speed, if you will. We are accelerating our efforts. I have been a number of meetings to figure how we can accelerate vaccine and Therapeutic Development testing and then production because the sooner we can get there the sooner we can get back to a normal that we all recognize, and the military has done a great job in that regard, in, looking very closely working very closely with their counterparts in the Public Sector. Michael a couple more questions about readiness and getting back to normal, and then i want to ask about equivalent. You are at the department of defense it does not look like your living room. I know there are some people at cia, dia, a lot of people in deployed locations do you have a mindset in mind for the people handling paperwork, but also classified that a certain amount cannot really be done by telework . Is there a concept for how that process plays out and gradually morphs back into something that but preservesl, enough of what we used to do that you can be effective and unclassified documents in that sort of advanced planning . Sec. Esper absolutely. We have been pleasantly surprised with how much we have been able to do when it comes to telework. In some cases we have seen an increase in productivity when it comes to telework. Our chief Development Officer has unveiled plans to reopen the pentagon and other buildings in the washington, d. C. , area. It was based on the president s plan and guidelines by Public Health experts. We can easily phase we can phase Office Building so we can get back to a normal and protect our people. The remains job number one. Ive three priorities attacked our Service Members, our dod civilians and their families, number two, ensure we can maintain our National Security capabilities, and number three, provide full support to the whole nation with an effort that has been underway since january. As you recall, we opened up our bases in late january 2 americans returning home from china who were brought back from the state department by the state department and others. We have been at this for several months and we know what is important. Sec. Esper michael thank you. I wanted to ask you about maintenance you mentioned that most kinds of training and maintenance have not been severely impinged upon, though you have higher line trainings that have been affected. What do you think you have all equipment,get missioncapable rates and maintainability rates back to hire levels . I think you have achieved a lot of that. Are you able to maintain that now, or are you saying reduction with partners at the subcontract level or contractor level being affected by the virus . Have seen again, we a lowimpact with regard to our readiness, but one of the big areas i am watching closely and were adopting our plans for is maintenance, and specifically the impact covid19 is having on the Defense Industrial base, not just four minutes, but production. We have a different type of workforce than the Service Members we have. In some ways, more susceptible, vulnerable to covid19. Some have shut down or on a reduced workload. That will have an impact on maintenance, whether it is local maintenance or depot level maintenance. Or if you are in a production line, it could have an impact there. Our undersecretary for acquisitions has done a great job, has been aggressive when it comes to talking to the industrial base. I will send a letter expressing my thanks and asking them how we can do better in terms of at full capacity. It is one of our concerns. We are working closely with them and ellen has done a good job in terms of cash flow, making sure we keep people on the line working. Governors,ed to people in the chapala supply chain about how we can protect provide protective equipment. All of those things will be on the table. Theyll be in and 4 important factor. Iger great a concern with production of the subcontractor level as opposed to the prime some are small, in the community. Can you say whether there are financial mechanisms that could help some of these subcontractors that and some of them should be more aware of . Sec. Esper absolutely. I worked in the industry and the further you go out, the more susceptible your folks are, whether it is a financial fluctuation or in this case a pandemic. We have to take care of them first and work act. Bigger companies have financial means to sustain themselves. It does not mean we should Pay Attention to them, but a priority has to be placed on the furthest end of the supply chain and work our way in there. That is racy you see a lot of all abilities were companies simply do not have the depth of financial means, personnel, whatever the case may be to maintain those items, components that are critical to assembling, bringing together the entire product. Michael so far you have not had an adverse affect on the throughput of finished products, but you are concerned there could be some looming vulnerabilities because of because certain kinds of Component Parts do not get produced. That is essentially the crux of the problem . Sec. Esper it is things like that, and we have seen it acutely with regards to supply chains that extend in mexico. In mexico, they have shut down a lot of factories. That is been a concern. I have spoken to secretary pompeo. We are doing everything we can to get the line backup. That is just an example of where the production line extends beyond our borders into mexico. Nonetheless, we need to keep the supply chain moving forward, putting stuff to the system so we can maintain our readiness because of maintenance of parts, or because it is a replacement an entirely new system is to come online. Michael im starting to get a number of questions and a few of them could be put together in a broader question about finance for the industrial base. Are there any considerations about specific needs you may have to focus on more, either spreading the word that certain , ors of loans are available getting some help in any kind of a future Financial Relief package that has not been targeted clearly enough on the Defense Industrial base, or asking for more money in the supplemental, which is maybe a different question, based on different kinds of demands, including the 45,000 guardsmen, reservists, and active duty forces around the country helping with the responses today. In terms of a supplemental, another cares act, in terms of existing funds people may not know about is there any big funds you might want to send today . Sec. Esper i would say congress has been generous, giving us 11 billion or so under the cares act. We need to continue to leverage that money over the coming days and weeks. Youn, we are working that we anticipate the likely need for additional moneys coming out if there is a fourth supplemental because we see greater demand with regards to medical supplies. We also know we need to restock our shelves, inventory. We also want to continue priming the Defense Industrial base. We want people at work. We want to continue with payments, help with cash flow. Dod is not an island. We rely heavily on the private sector. Some money of the private sector workforce has been affected by covid19. If there is a shutdown order or maybe they are working in close quarters, management does not feel comfortable coming to work, we are trying to work through all of those. We are working at them one at a time. There is more we can do and will do as we try to plan ahead. I want to move to international questions where there might be a covid dimension as to laurent, or the u. S. Presence in afghanistan. Before i do, because we have been talking about the domestic homefront and i know it is very much on your mind, is there any additional concern you have, any looming needs for the department of defense to do even more in the future and some domains . Is youson i ask mentioned the hospital ships will not be needed because a few of the caseloads turned out to be not as great or might have already, such as in new york city, the one concern is the strength in the u. S. Police forces were you already seen 15 attrition in new york, 20 in new york in detroit i should not say attrition, sick leave people that have covid or are self quarantine, and the question that is raised as to whether the National Guard might need to go help is that kind of conversation happening or need to happen . How do you view the domestic requirements for military assistance in the future . Sec. Esper you hit on something that is very important. I said we had 62,000 Service Members out on the streets of america right now. 45,000 of them are national doingwho are tremendous work. We had well over 4000 medical professionals out there. We were very responsive to the need of the state and local authorities. Eventually we got to the model where we saw doctors and nurses either getting infected or simply worn out because they were running 24 hour days for weeks at a time. We were able to put our doctors and nurses into hospitals and either boost them or substitute for a period so they can rest up. I have not heard we have reached that point with the police forces. The National Guard would be well suited to do that, certainly better than the active component. We have not seen that yet, but that would be admission available to them depending on how the governor of each respective state wants to leverage them. Michael i want to pose a broad question about how covid19 is affecting potential american threats or adversaries. We know the pentagon for now has been using this socalled four plus one framework. You and secretary mattis and others modified it to what is called two plus three with a focus on russia and china first, and then korea, iran, and terrorism after that. The National Defense strategy emphasizes those concerns. We talked a little bit on china today. I wanted to ask in broad terms if you had any context about what you are seeing from the other major preoccupations of the department of defense russia, north korea, iran, and transnational terrorism. Terrorism seems unabated. It has not seemed affected in many kinds of attacks. Do you have any highlevel view or comment about the behavior of russia, north korea and iran so far . Sec. Esper the world remains a dangerous place. So many americans, rightly so, are focused inside these days. But we are seeing the same bad behavior we have seen before. The russians trying to probe our defenses in alaska. The chinese and the South China Sea. We are seeing all of that. Some places more pushy than others. Other places, we see them standing down because they are affected by covid19 as well. They are not reporting it as much but we know they are concerned about it. We are very cautious. We are also very conscious about whats happening out there. My watch force has been to remain vigilant. These uncertain times, you dont know how militaries will act so we have to remain vigilant on the front lines. The commanders get that. I talk with them neatly about weekly about this. We have everything we can as far as pushing hospital supplies, doctors, to make sure they can remain as ready as possible to deal with these threats. Michael i want to come back to the middle east in a minute where you have so many forces deployed, but one more question on russia if i could. In your opening comments, you mentioned the probing flights in the northern states and the eastern flank of russia. What about europe and the middle east, which has been the number one source of concern in regard to russian behavior, especially since 2014 . Some of the audience today has novemberut 2020 and any exercises we planned that have to be curtailed or postponed. And your sense of the preparedness in europe specifically with regards to russia and potential provocations. Do you see more provocations and you have worries about our preparedness in that particular theater . Sec. Esper i wouldnt say there has been a material increase in provocation. The chinese have been a little more aggressive out there in the pacific. The russians remain busy in libya, of course, syria, places like that. With regards to nato, the alliance has held strong. Ive talked to many of my counterparts from europe about their state of readiness, how we can help them, etc. Over the past two years, we have seen nato readiness increase. President trump has been very consistent, as of i, that they contribute more to defense, get above the 2 threshold. And they have. The supreme allied commander of europe has made nato readiness an initiative, which i have as well. 30 battalions, 30 squadrons, 30 naval ships ready within 30 days. Overall, the trend for nato readiness has been positive, in terms of both capacity, capability and the ability to deploy in a timely manner. All that is trending well at this point in time. And, that is generally where we see things right now. Michael on iran, we know that iran has been extremely hardhit by covid19 internally. Its obviously been pressured by the u. S. Led sanctions regiment. Yet, of course, iran tends to conduct activities that are often covert, not always that expensive. I want to ask you in a minute about iran and iraq, but first if i could focus directly on iran. We know there have been some concerns about iranian gunboat provocations in the persian gulf, visavis the u. S. Navy. Are you seeing any change in activity there . Do you have any concern that iran is getting back into a corner, so to speak, the Health Care System is in such dire straits, it is doing the only thing iran knows how to do which is to lash out . Sec. Esper iran has been hit very hard by the coronavirus. It has had an impact on the economy, on society. As we have been saying, if they paid more attention to their people, divert their funds to helping the population instead of funding maligned activities from africa all the way through the middle east, whether it is funding shia Militia Groups, providing rockets and ammunition to the Houthi Rebels if they focused their attention on their people, it would be a much better place. Instead, they continue this maligned behavior they have been up to now for 41 years. That continues despite the impact of sanctions, despite the impact of the coronavirus. In spite of all those things. We in the United States have offered medical supplies and whatnot, and they have turned that down. My hope would be that they would focus on the iranian people, try to help them through this. Try and provide the iranian people the testing, medical supplies, the proper policies to get through this because those of the folks that are suffering right now. Michael let me now ask about iran inside of iraq. There has been a lot of news in iraq the last few months and it almost seems like the world moves so fast these days that we forget the seismic developments. There were all sorts of different types of developments. Everything from iraqi protests against their own political leaders, partly due to economic malaise, partly due to concerns the iraqi leadership was too close to iran. People didnt like that. He saw some sniper activity, perhaps with iranian sponsors. The u. S. Retaliating against a Militia Group that were instrumental in shelling our bases. That led to a backandforth. We have the one of the more dramatic developments in middle eastern security politics in recent years. It seems like the conversation on that lasted for about a week. There has been a lot going on. I wonder how you take stock of the situation today, since the iraqis are still trying to put together a new government. They are still trying to figure out if they want to stay which is a decision they cannot make until they stabilize the new government. We are still figuring out if we can protect our forces better if the iraqis do not help us enough protecting our own capabilities. What is the state of play right now as we get into may, the u. S. Forces in iraq . Sec. Esper you covered a lot of terrain. The United States policy remains unchanged. We really want iraq to be a secure, prosperous and sovereign country. Were willing to support them in any way we can to do that. We are committed to the enduring defeat of isis, which means providing training, advising and assist. The iranian government has its tentacles into the Iraqi Government. It seems like it has escalated. At this point in time, the Iraqi Government is struggling because they cannot form themselves. You have a new designated Prime Minister who is trying to pull egovernment together. Hes being influenced by iran or iranian proxies through the shia Militia Groups. At the same time, due to the collapse of oil, the price of oil, you have seen a collapse in the revenues. It is a tough time for the iraqis. What we want to seize the iraqi people enjoy the sovereignty that they want, that they desire. You see the iraqi people out in the streets, it has been about two things corruption and influence of iran in their country. We want to do what we can to help them get through that and become a sovereign, independent, prosperous nation. Michael we still have roughly 5000 u. S. Forces in iraq consolidated in a number of bases. Is that a good summary . Sec. Esper we have an obligation to ensure we protect our people. As we have seen iran maligned activity, particularly in iraq, we know that iran continues to fund or resource or direct or somehow shape the behavior and actions of shia Militia Groups in that country. That is a threat to us. Its a threat that the Iraqi Government is responsible for and needs to take control of. I talked to my counterpart about it, as has the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. When you have a government that is struggling to form itself and get control, it is hard for them to do that. We have consolidated our positions. We support iraqs sovereignty. We have to see what the future of our presence in iraq will look like in the months ahead. Michael in a minute or two, i want to finish up on the broader question of the National Defense strategy and implementation of that. That is partly related to covid19, but also largely separate from covid19. Before i do, i want to ask about afghanistan. I realize this is a complicated question because im inevitably going to be asking you a question that touches on diplomacy and the Peace Process in afghanistan. I think at the moment, theres a little bit of confusion, perhaps intentional and perhaps even desirable, about what exactly u. S. Policy towards afghanistan would be if the Peace Process with the taliban and the government led team of political ors, ngos, Civil Society if that Peace Process continues to state bogged down, if the afghani government cannot decide on how they will structure powersharing between the top two individuals, and there is an uptick in violence, especially by the taliban against the Afghan Police and army, there is really no headway on seeing even the beginning of a promising negotiation are we really going to leave next year, according to the current plan . Or is there enough play int the deal that has been discussed, United States the still reserves the right to say the taliban is not negotiating in good faith and we are going to rethink our commitments. Certainly, we are going to rethink the idea of getting out altogether come 2021. Any comment on that broader situation which is now complicated by covid as well . Im not sure if it is complicated in which he makes the fighting over time likely to diminish because people get sick. So far, we have seen no report on any reduction in violence. Over to you, mr. Secretary. Sec. Esper lets go back to the basics. The basics of this our goal remains we do not want afghanistan to ever become a safe haven for terrorists who can attack the United States. That is number one. Number two is we know this conflict between the taliban and the Afghan Government is not going to be won on the battlefield. We have to have a political solution to this. That is the process we set up. The Peace Agreement we arranged between us and the taliban that eventually will lead to an afghan negotiation. That is the best path forward for all parties, particularly of the Afghan People who have suffered for 19, 20 years. That is the path we are on. It is fair to say that path has been long and why dn bumpy, and its behind schedule. We continue to talk to both sides about what they need to do to fully implement the agreement. There has not been a reduction in violence from the talibans side. On the other hand, they have not attacked us or major metropolitan areas. On the other side, the Afghan Government needs to organize itself and reach an agreement. We understand right now theres a possible new powersharing agreement coming out. If that is successful, we can form an Afghan Negotiating Team with consent with the taliban. We have seen some exchanges of prisoners not enough. That is the way forward. The United States will continue to support our afghan partners in that process. In their defense, we have conducted counter strikes against the taliban and we will do that. At the end of the day, we want to make sure afghanistan is not become a safe haven for terrorists. We are comfortable we can get down to a lower number and still adhere to the terms of the agreement. From there, we will make decisions that are conditions based. Michael a couple more questions and they relate, again, so the National Defense strategy, power competition and the path forward more generally. I guess i could put this in broad, big picture terms. Anything of particular note you would want to say, whether it is technologies that are showing more progress as john allen alluded to earlier that you were championing in your job . Whether it is any innovation you are seeing that you want us to be aware of and is ongoing. Anything beyond the immediate Crisis Management and covid19 dimensions. It is probably too soon to know there is going to be any effect on your budgetary topline from all of the developments in the world in 2020, not to mention the president ial election in november. But certainly the way covid is affecting our gdp growth rate, our debt, Everything Else is going to be debated at length in the months and years ahead. I assume you dont have any change yet in your expected topline. Can you confirm that and then discuss whatever you want to talk to . Sec. Esper i set my top priority would be the implementation of the National Defense strategy. We have been working pretty hard on that in the 11 months or so i have been secretary of defense. I will talk about some of those things. Much of it goes unreported. On the top line, i said if we are going to continue to increase readiness, make this to 5 etc. , we needed 3 growth year over year. Im concerned that the massive infusion of dollars into the economy by the congress and the executive branch, nearly 3 trillion, may throw us off that course because we all recognize the United States has an e normous debt and we have to deal with that, too. There is a concern that will lead to smaller Defense Budgets in the future. At the critical time we need to continue to make this adjustment where we look at china and then russia as our longterm strategic competitors, that means shutting the legacy force and moving to a more modern force. That more modern force looks like and completely revitalized Strategic Forces. Rebuilding all three legs of the nuclear triad. Whether it is the groundbased strategic returns, the new ssbm s, or longrange strategic bombers. We are investing a lot of money in ai into hypersonic, our space give abilities, cyber. All types of things. That will continue. At the same time, last summer, we kicked off and we just had an update in the last month, a new joint war fighting concept that is the successor to airland battle. Making sure we are fighting it all domains as a cohesive force. We have big plans to reach out to our allies and partners in making sure they are well integrated in our efforts. There are a number of things we are doing on a variety of fronts to get to that point. Again, i have a 10 point plan in which we are executing that to ensure we are prepared to deal with the strategic threats we see in the future. Again, those longterm those longtermg adversaries being china competitors being china and russia. Michael are you concerned that even with the existing precovid19 benchmarks, we are going to see a plateauing of the Defense Budget . If that turns out to be the case, lets say we go through covid19, all the fiscal disruption, we go through the president ial election whoever wins winds up with sticking with a flat budget Going Forward because of some of the fiscal concerns. Are there still smart ways we can implement the National Defense strategy even though it will be a lot harder for you or your successor . Are there ways one can imagine incompatibletially with the National Defense strategy as you see it . Sec. Esper there are things we can do that are not budget dependent, if you will, unlike modernizing the force. First of all, i think we need to continue doing what i started last summer. I came in in late july, early august, and we were able to find over three months, 6 billion. I was able to put that back into things like our new technologies and other things we need to modernize the force. But, there are things we can do that dont require a lot of money that can help us get to that. I mentioned the new joint war fighting concept. We are now in the process of transitioning to a concept have Immediate Reaction forces and Contingency Reaction forces. Were implementing the policy of Dynamic Force deployment. I want to move much more towards operational deployments as compared to permanent deployed forces. There are a number of things we can do to keep our adversaries off balance, to improve our own readiness at the same time that dont necessarily involve massive infusions of dollars. That said, we do need that sustained topline growth. If we dont, we are going to have to accelerate the shedding of the legacy force and turning those dollars back into building the force we need in the future. Every Service Needs it. We need a larger, more capable navy that can operate, that can implement across the seven seas. We need to modernize our air force and start thinking continue working on six generation capabilities. The army needs to transition out of the reaganera big five and get into the next era which will be necessary for high intensity conflict. The marines are doing innovative things with regard to how they are adjusting their force. I think they have a good blueprint to do that. All those things need to continue. That means we need to shed the legacy far more quickly. There may be things we need to stop doing in order to free up dollars. There aree same time, policy things, adjustments we can make in our training. Relying more on our allies and partners to make sure we can get to that future end state we want ontime. Michael we are lucky as a country to have you in that job. We are grateful for the time you spent with us today. Thank you very much and very best wishes Going Forward. Sec. Esper thank you. Thank you for your paying attention and thank you for what brookings does. Michael my pleasure. Best wishes to you. Sec. Esper the same. Cspan has roundtheclock coverage of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic. And it is all available on demand at cspan. Org coronavirus. Watch white house briefings, updates from governors and state officials, track the spread throughout the u. S. And the world with interactive maps. Watch ondemand anytime unfiltered at cspan. Org coronavirus. The house remains out of session this week at the senate returned to washington this week to vote on executive domination. Later this week, possible work on fisa reauthorization and talks off the floor on future Coronavirus Relief authorization. Watch this senate live on cspan2. The house, after consultations with members and the attending physician is not expected to resume business until next week at the earliest. Until then, the chamber continues to hold brief pro forma sessions and negotiations continue on possible options for remote voting. Watch the house live on cspan. Washington journal primetime. A special evening edition of the washington journal on the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic. Dr. Libby roy of New York University on some of the more severe, nonpulmonary effects the coronavirus is having on u. S. Patients. Of Massachusetts General Hospital talks about work on self assembling vaccines being developed to combat the virus. Join the conversation tonight at 8 p. M. Eastern on cspan. Earlier today, House Minority leader Kevin Mccarthy discussed the impact of the coronavirus on congress and a plan to safely return lawmakers to the capital. He spoke with politico playbook for about 35 minutes
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