The worst antisemitic attack on u. S. Soil in history. It happened in pittsburgh. That sparked a lot of calls for change to gun laws that never happened. That is different than the topic of talking about protecting the Second Amendment in the Rural Counties that matter so much. There is a lot of important Second Amendment here. That is clear. To help gun laws impacted the election, im not sure. There have been so many issues that have taken precedence in pennsylvania. You see it in poland all the time. Gun laws and gun control might have come up on those surveys. They are not right now. It is something that i dont have too much of a grasp on at this point. Host you can follow julian rouths reporting if you go to postgazette. Com. Thank you very much for your washington journal continues. Host we are back with nick clark, associate professor at susquehanna university. What do polls say right now in this snapshot of time about where the race stands . Average thenes that different polls put Vice President biden ahead between roughly 4 and 6 . Frank then and marshall has a new poll this morning i think with some of the upper end of that trajectory. There are some single polls that give him more of an advantage. It is looking like biden as an advantage between 4 and 6 . Host is it enough to get out of the margin of error . Guest i believe so. On the high side the margin is around five point. Even if the Vice President were to come down a percentage point, that would be enough to do it. That is a high margin though. Most cases will be between 3 and five point. If none of the other states are competitive, pennsylvania will decide it. While we may not know the outcome of pennsylvania on Election Night, we will know if it is a landslide for the Vice President. If it is close, it will likely come down to pennsylvania. Host what about those who do not traditionally vote . How did they vote in 2016 . What do we know about whether the candidates are getting them to show up this time around . Guest we do expect turn out to be higher. Pennsylvania typically has a higher turnout rate than the rest of the country. But there are still between 30 and 40 of eligible voters that are not turning out. President trump did mobilize new people to the polls last night time and he may do so again this election. We are getting some evidence their people voting for the first time for Vice President biden because they think the election has consequence. They are being motivated to turn out as well. I think both campaigns are focused more on turnout than trying to get new voters to the polls. There have been efforts over the last few years to register new voters. I think they are both focused on turnout with their own base of supporters. Host what is your take on the Supreme Court yesterday and their decision on pennsylvanias balance . Ballots . Guest it obviously has consequence because it means the states can continue counting ballots for a few days after the election. If the election is close, if the margin of error were in the president s favor and we see the difference of. 01 , those additional ballots may make a difference. The Supreme Court decision could favor continuing to count ballots which could be in favor of Vice President biden. I dont think that question is settled. I think if we get to november 4 and theres not a clear answer, there will continue to be legal challenges and the court may hear the decision again. Host what are the rules in place in pennsylvania for a recount . Is within know, it the margin, i think it is roughly under 1 where there is an automatic one. I think you will see both campaigns challenging in order to have a recount if it is anywhere close to 1 . I think likely we will see a recount just because the consequences are going to be so dire. Host where will you be watching . What pockets of pennsylvania will you be watching on Election Night and why . Guest there are some counties that flipped from blue to red in 2016 that could flip back. Northampton county on the eastern side of the state, erie county in the northwest part of the state. Those are three counties that were blue and flipped. Bluef them flipped back to in the 2018 midterm. There is a chance those three could go back to blue. I think Beaver County defeats pittsburgh. That has been eight more republican county but it did go blue in the midterm. You could see that coming back. I think cumberland in the center. The map is going to look largely the same. Most of the counties that are red or blue in 20 and 2018 will remain so. But there are five or six counties that could flip back. The margins across the state, if the Vice President is able to do 5 better in traditionally red counties, that could make up the difference in 2016. Host we will go to gary in philadelphia, supporting the president. Good morning. Caller good morning. You are never going to change philadelphia and pittsburgh. They will always be democratic strongholds. They always have been. I think we will see in pennsylvania a lot of Trump Supporters are not going to say it because there is a lot of violence towards Trump Supporters. We have seen people have their homes damaged, signs taken away. You see jews in new york getting attacked when they are jews for trump. There is a lot of negative sentiment toward Trump Supporters in general. What i think you will see in pennsylvania are people who do not want their counties to turn into the areas that are democratically run. I believe it was Lancaster County that had an incident where there was a police shooting. There were protests that almost turned into riots. Instead of turning into a full out riot, they charged every Single Person who was arrested and they are pushing them through the justice system. They are not letting them go or bailing them out. When we talk about law and order and what kind of administration we want, i think it is very evident in pennsylvania when you see in Rural Counties they put a quick quash to any issues. I think that speaks volumes to what we will see in the middle pennsylvania. Host nick clark . Guest i think most red counties will stay red. I think the law and order message the president is advancing is likely resonating with voters that have already decided theyre going to support the president. Theres not a lot of evidence in the polling data it is changing anyones mind. I think it is resonating with people already convinced. The question is, is it going to mobilize greater turnout . Our Trump Supporters going to be more likely to vote . I have my doubts about that. I think it is a highly mobilized group. I think they are already likely to turn out and vote. I suspect you are right. If the polls are wrong and pennsylvania stays red, that maybe one of the expo nations. But i have some doubts about it now. Host how confident are you in polling this time around . Guest we are in a different situations. A lot of polling people were basing projections on in 2016 were national polls. We did not have as many state polls. They are more reliable and consistent indicators of what is going on in each date state. They accounted for errors in 2016. Confident just because of the differences that make up the polling methodology that the polls may be more accurate. We did see that in 2018. They were far more accurate in predicting the outcome. Host the demographics that were not weighted enough in the 2016 polls that supported the president , what are those voters say now about the selection . This election . Guest lights without a College Education remains whites without a College Education remain supportive of the president. We have seen some movement of white women without a College Education. That particular group supported the president in 2016 by 10 to 20 points. It is basically even between biden and trump right now. Does firmlyup remain in the president s camp and there are a lot of white voters without a College Education in pennsylvania, which is what makes it much more of a swing state. Supporting the president , welcome to the conversation. Caller thank you. I have a couple of points. I live in florida. Im 82. I have an overall view point, i guess, but i am an avid trump supporter because i watched him as i was growing up in philadelphia and what he could get done in new york when nobody else could because i did work in new york for a while, too. But as far as the university of pennsylvania, my father graduated from the university of Pennsylvania Law School and let biden has a what do you call them . A big fund at the university of pennsylvania and i dont even know if he lived there, but the chinese are the people who gave him the money for that fund at that university of pennsylvania and my father would be turning over in his grave. Secondly, pittsburgh, used to live in pittsburgh. I love pittsburgh. Is booming. It is using with people. You can barely get across the street. They had to put in new ridges. My son immediately within a year of trump coming and got a 6,500 raise. Anything people say trump didnt do this or trump didnt do that or trump lies nobody actually tells me what was the lie he told. Host im going to pick up on what you said about your son. Are people saying they are better off in pennsylvania than they were four years ago . I dont think so and im not sure even the president s supporters are saying that. I think they look to the president as the one who can improve that situation. His success in 2016 was based on a message around change. We are going to make your life that are. In a lot of ways, he is trying to repeat that message even though hes coming at this as an incumbent and his supporters are saying a lot of what is wrong with the country are factors beyond the president s control, but by reelecting him, he may be able to make the country even better. Host what about independence, nonvoters, swing voters, what are they saying on that question . Guest independence and swing voters are looking a lot more like democrats who are saying the country is not that are off, in fact it is worse off. There is dramatic need for change and they dont look at the president as the one who can deliver that. They look at him as primarily responsible for the situation. It is roughly in the high 80s and low 90s among democrats who would say that and the high 60s among independence. Host jared, beachwood, michigan. You are undecided. Caller i was calling because i was listening to the program here and i heard one individual calling from michigan just a couple of towns over from where i live. I heard his comments, they were not spiteful or anything but then i heard the philadelphia color and she started screaming and ranting and raving, dont tell us how to do things, you dont know its happening in philadelphia. Unless the tv is lying to us and we are turning it on and seeing riots and businesses being burned to the ground, then we do know what the hell is going on in philadelphia. And we have a right to view our opinion. What is happening in philadelphia and a lot of other big cities are democratically controlled that are being destroyed. Myself,felong democrat but where i have gotten to the point where i am frustrated is ,n 2016, we cast our ballots but even when Bernie Sanders one , Hillary Clinton got the superdelegates. Host are you undecided . Gathering onfor the state fairgrounds which is normally the great minnesota gettogether. It will be the great minnesota gettogether when we start to do things right and that all begins with each of you getting out the vote. Minnesota,ell you, the last seven months have been challenging. It has been heartbreaking. It has been in some cases, unimaginable, dealing with covid19. What makes it all so unforgivable, it didnt need to be this way. Had we had leadership in the white house to partner with states and Public Health care, things can be different. Things can be different. There are countless reasons we need joe biden and Kamala Harris first and foremost. We need a president who believes in science. We need a president who understands partnering with states and we need a president who shows empathy and compassion to those they are supposed to represent. That embodies joe biden and Kamala Harris. [honking] here is the deal, minnesota. It has been a challenging four years, not just seven months. But the wonderful thing and the genius of our system is it is a rare opportunity in life when 100 hours can truly change the destiny not just for your family or your community or your state or nation, but truly can change the trajectory of this planet. We need American Leadership on climate change. [honking] leadership that stands with our democratic allies, not the despots on the others. [honking] need to end the chaos, the division, the hate, and the gas lighting and the good news is it is and our power to do it in the next 100 hours. 100 hours. And just let me Say Something about voting. That most precious american right and privilege to cast a vote and self govern was paid for in the blood of patriots here is what i can tell you anyone or any group of people that tries to intimidate voters does not respect the democracy. [honking] person or any group that tries to make it difficult to vote does not respect the spirit of people like john lewis who cross that bridge for the right to vote. [honking] but the good news is, what all of you know is when people like donald trump try and come to a state like minnesota that votes at a higher percentage than anywhere else in the nation, that values the right to vote, when you come here and try and suppress our right to vote, we know why you are doing it. It is because you are getting kicked. T thats why you are doing it. [honking] what we know is this is our moment. If youve got a al it, take it and drop it off. If you havent voted yet, it will be safe. Curbside vote if you need to on tuesday but do not allow the intimidation, the disrespect of our democracy and the undermining of all the things that make this nation great get out and cast that vote. Yet out and make sure [honking] there is no regret. 100 hours. We will sleep when we are dead but now was not the time to sleep. 100 hours. You wake up on wednesday morning, you wake up and know you did Everything Possible to , to putis nations ship dignity, decency, and compassion and humor and goodwill and all of the things that are personified in joe biden and Kamala Harris and what makes this nation great. We wake up on november 4, that is our reality. Lets do it, minnesota. [honking] they think the pandemic is very much ongoing and are concerned how the federal government is responded to that. I dont think its a given every from is going to flip President Trump to Vice President biden but overall, i think it has been a plus for Vice President biden. Host nate, in milwaukee, wisconsin. Caller i was calling in part because i know gerrymandering is an issue pennsylvania has two deal with like in wisconsin. In 2018, trump supported the gerrymandering which is basically rigged elections. One thing i was going to ask about on that issue, on taking away peoples freedom when it does to state elections is pennsylvania, like wisconsin, still have a gerrymandered state legislature that is not responsive to voters and is undermining the governors effort, potentially like wisconsin to deal with coronavirus . Because we have had problems with that. I think gerrymandering is something both parties have engaged in. While i agree it can and does work against democratic intentions, it is not uniquely in the province of republicans. The democrats have done it as well, most notably in the state of illinois. Pennsylvania has been dealing with it happy to be with you all today. This feels like such an important day. We are living through a Health Crisis and an economic crisis brought on by this pandemic and it feels so personal. Jobs,your health, your the businesses you built, your kids education. We are seeing a spike in cases here in minnesota and across the upper midwest. 2400 lives lost in minnesota. And covid is not the great equalizer. You know it is