The fact that President Trump has come forward with a new strategy so there are 3 Million Girls in school and there is a moral component so there is a lot of progress that doesnt get a lot of coverage when the price is way too high. From ambassador way new is a former coordinator so we have a very good people to cover the issues today. You cannot solve those challenges without diplomacy and development and we welcome the fact that requires a securityis component that it is changed by diplomacy and development we want to have that part of the conversation and work ourselves out of a job if it is in a different place then the amount of assistance is much smaller than 10 years ago. Something north of 10 . If you l every every dollar theyre collecting in taxes and that pays for schools and m hospitals we want to see Economic Growth, said tax collection or work ourselves to a smaller part of a job. And then to have a vision so that nonmilitary side is critical. Ink the my very good friend will be moderating this discussion is a new senior fellow buthe it is of privilege to have her with us. I will introduce the the ambassador from the afghan perspective and will make a few brief remarks then to turn the panel over to my friend. [applause] thanks daniel and ladies and gentleman, announced by the president of the United States that we welcome the ship to the condition basedme go strategy with the number off the troops and well we welcome this announcement it is aggressively pursuing these reforms with he said reconciliation efforts. And military is not the only solution. Good gov and corruption and education with the reconciliation are vital steps to achieve the stability. The government of afghanistan the lions the United States with the government of afghanistan to measuring achievements against the federal bench mark the president of the two countries will meet regularly to discern that the benchmarks are met to the time lines those areas including economy is security and peace reconciliation so of thein Business Climate the Financial Sector are under way also with the infrastructure and then with that agenda of with determination with government services. So with the reconciliation with that multilateral mechanisms it is an important platform in this direction calling for our reach of reconciliation we believe the of proper support of the International Community in these areas. I would like to end of the note that afghanistan is moving forward. [inaudible] [laughter] [applause] so i will introduce the uh the distinguished panel i enjoy and by a the ambassador former deputy vansittart in coordinating director and also the former Mission Director of afghanistan for usaid and Ambassador Richard olsen with special representative for afghanistan and pakistanden president and ceo of the africanamerican tueber of commerce. Call it off so i will begin so what is different in afghanistan since september 811 . So what are the key achievements of those data points since september 11 that we can show progress in afghanistan . And then i will ask questions about the future strategy of afghanistan. As a former System Administrator from usaid from what we made before were focused on building that social infrastructure which was estimated getting curriculum decided building clinics getting girls in school to establish a bid by system with that early Infrastructure Investment so the death rates went up to where they are now about where it is now that is a dramatic progress firmly it tokes 30 years and schools 80 percent now there hasas been a little fallback there are more schools built perhaps too many so i think education and that has taken dramatic steps forward so other economic steps are important to know theyre working very hard to comply with these requirements and with very little capacity of their own industry to do that for, theyre working through that diligently with great support the revenue collections have started to do pick up with domesticty resource mobilization is improving because the president has focused trying to approve domestic resource mobilization i qualify that because the imf is in a workout so they better be okay. [laughter] subregional growth there was big market led growth going on like to lullaby and other areas that i think is a model i dont like to throw in callable as an automatic so naturally there are more investment in trade going on in the institutions that the president is moving aggressively there is a bunch of announcements that they made with a direct rail service from china coming into northern afghanistan and flights happening every three weeks from kabul into india. That is positive in hearing im government officials that will be speeding up with a road to integration and that but will give them access into a free port area for exports is critical lastll is a very positive thing that has taken too long for a the president and the government to move the industry sector with the specter of allocation that shouldve happened probably two years ago he did open announce at open access policies the you will seest Big Investments coming in which early on in afghanistan with the department of defense would build that infrastructure was a driver of that early on. I will not cite your accomplishments but your government was the main daughter during that time also it was a consortium and they use 2002 as a Reference Point so probably until the time that i served with ambassador weighing in afghanistan i was there with the search through 2011 but since that point progress has been more supplemental so with regard to education and health soda major crisis that we were looking at during that period was the actual transition and the effect it would have on a the government and economyagineo those that are popping upoo the economy in the short period of time to scale down the troops and i would say it appears to have weathered the worst of it it hit bottom a yearandahalf agoat a in the economy is beginning to rebalance to reflect the important thing is putting into place a National Procurement law as the president is engaged in running the economy also he was very much involved to shape those Assistance Programs i would say there is little government capacity grew overwhelming the government and the country so there were a lot of parallel structures areng now the government has donei th to braying more assistance so with is a coordinated process i can say from my experience now we have been involved for more than 10 years the one thing it does not make it into the headlines is the capacity ofthad the government in the ministry of education so we are often told by the government, slowdown were in charge did not ready to move to that district so we follow the government. In char this is much more aligned with the government and thenem coming at a university or the of system that we do know with a lack of a future to include a lack of a job is one of the reasons insecurity is fuelled. I am not an economist by a political officer by trade i will not go heavy on trade but in terms of what is different between now and 9 11, the main difference for us as americans with noth attacks against our homeland since 9 11 and i think that in particular just as the economy begins to be banned after the transition in 2014 it is the case of the security situation has been steadier that after the end of combat operations of taliban through everything they had at the Afghan Government and not have been able to hold them for any period of time sold the way those latest numbers suggestth the government retains control of territory that accounts for 21 million afghans were the taliban is in control that holdst between two or 3 million afghans. So i think there is a bit of a perception that the taliban is a descendant that could be truly geographically but what it is doing is getting gray areas of control over deserts and mountains and the urban centers continue to be under government control especially the five great cities. That is important because another element alluded to is the population that population growth has been almost entirely in the cities. Kabul had 200,000 in 2001 now it is in the millions i dont know if anybody even knows how many between four and 5 million is the estimate most of those are young and connected to the outside world by telecom in the way that has not happened ever in afghan history. It is a very different place , much more urbanizedd. And is much more connected to the house side world than it ever has been in theth past. I think so we need to think about this this is an old conflict to when tony and i were talking going back 40 years or 100 years even if you go back to the 11th century but it does seem that so would we see a progress. So what we face along the way the reason we go into afghanistan so the reason we years still in afghanistan last you do with that terrorist threat and if you look at of broader region there is still a lot of radicals and terrorist in as areas there is a possibilityrr if they would precipitously leave more chaos would return to that space soe. Within that context it is important to remember we did not understand the scope and complexity of the challenges we were taking on when we went into afghanistan they were working with partners and allies there is of mixed of modernizers and traditionalist and in many ways were telescoping the process to build a more modern state and society into a period of time that is hard to find anothernd nation where this is taken place so it is not surprising there is a lot of challenges so in addition to the civil war the regional rivalries that continue to complicate the situation so it is a complex set of challenges as the government we have learned a lot along the way but one of the things is if we are going to succeed there are a number of very important path of action that need to be coordinated well as security actions are important but one of the points were here to talk about today it is also essential we have good assistance with economic related programs with very effective diplomacy inside afghanistan with pakistan and in the region to come together so that remains a tough set of challenges. So everything of of policy the United States justt announced, the real focus is how will it be implemented in . Working with our afghan partners trying to find a way to play a more constructive role which has a very important relationship with pakistan to move everybody toward a political settlement one of the key parts is to make it more explicit the were aiming to move toward a political settlement that will take a lot of effortat wil and we can talk about that more but it is my belief not just United States but many partners and allies it will be those numbers of the ministry that are increasing the effectiveness to deliver services to the people in afghanistan there will be those Afghan Soldiers but also reaching out to the taliban and others to create a space with there are political discussions. This is a great segue for rednecks set of questions for the future will looking at the recent remarks what are the of a the key components of a non military strategy it afghanistan . In the second question what is the of biggest challenge to implement the key component . The hat new commitment to security is relativelyly modest to bring in the traders with the Afghan Special forces where thee taliban is present or were they are contested so they can take control of those areas to provide governancede dl and development in those areas u. S. Assistance program im all sharper barely working in areas where the government has control so with the government can expand its control moving into those areas fairly rapidly to provide services would be a priority. Im not saying we go back to a Counter Insurgency approach so with the world bank to have the effectiveghania mechanism through theb National Solidarity program has become the citizens charter it is a robust model operating in 25,000 communities in building at a very organic level with development so my view is that is the unnecessary element after security has been the team did new areas that other development will, your education through marketbased Economic Growth i will be a little bit provocative because i think there are things from the private sector economic standpoint that need to be said publicly pursuant to complement the president to move forward the import substitution base focusing space gemstones agriculture 22 of the economy that is a given we also want to continue more aggressively pushing independent Power Production with a longtermm concessionary agreement to focus on call and gas and other hydrocarbons the only one to do coal developmentnt for afghanistan this year it has very good quality clean burning coal to supply the a Nervous Energy requirements around the country. Quiremen we need to fight corruption of highprofile cases there was a threestar general whoho has been on trial and convicted for highlevelel corruption to increase the Public Financial Management that only 35 percent of the of budget is getting spent that his enrages live up i parliament itself fired seven ministers this posture as a result so now things when to stop and start. Stop funding endless Capacity Development projects to work on building a market lead the economy to sustain 400,000 workers each year. A lot of those are refugees that are returning you look at the numbers some have College Educations and now are forced to come back and getting resettled the private sector will build that. Not a sustainable plan longterm. You would like to see what is designed and implemented by the private sector with the priorities of the government and i will give you one example now because of the workout situation the bank is advocating a spend no more money on Mission Critical infrastructure because they are bad. Ncritic the multiplier where they would like us to spend more money Going Forward this social investments and specifically cash transfers with health and educationca this is sad day critical to the point and mineral extraction that will not get done without that Donor Community being in sync. With that short Bilateral Agreement and has not been amended since 2004. In between those two countries with that are taken very weak agreement between us. F it is i was sitting in these meetings we would like to see that bilateral to where the private sector there council that would be to to better integrate its that strategy that with private sector aspects. Ink g the afghanistan is very focused upon the implementation but i dont want that need to take a strong economic relationships there is no bilateral trade or investment treatment and after 50 years of those two additional we have those w agreements in place for years. Because no u. S. Multinational will, and invest and allow personnel. Theyd for the afghan american chambers perspective 2 of afghan businesses are usingca private banks to fund investment. Private ba in all those rather places. We want to see the Afghan Central Bank was in the ultraconservative lending rules for the business eckert sector soon elevate give a higher percentage to those that keep it but not what is available for investment to invest in hotels or the marketplace for our manufacturing facilities wect like to see the bank to use those guarantees with other types of tools that can help us to get capital flowed again inside of the economy. We are asked to talk about the future of afghanistan in the context of current u. S. Policy making a couple of observations it is a non timeline based approach with military forces with a modest increase in military forces noting a harder line publicly. T but none of these are dramatically new even in the ninth time line based the appointment at that 8400 level it was conditioned space. Yvonne that increase nothing from my perspective that is sacrosanct. Hi with those troop levels that are there. Said to have a gradual shifting of emphasis of policy. So the formal statement is policy Going Forward was a little less clear is what the u. S. Government sees as the overall objective and the central objective and it seems to me for the u. S. Government there are two broad options Going Forwardr thi one is where we hearted and the afghan state has developed over the last 16 years andy other alternative is to attempt to foster and pursue a political settlement having been in the state of the civil war for the last 40 years kelso will keying in in pakistan that the taliban has a safe haven with the record of counterinsurgencies that is pretty grim. So i never proponents of hearing that political settlement and that has to be the central objective of policy. In to tell about a political settlement i have yet to be a fourstar general that this will end in a political settlement not in outright military victory. So we should make this u. S. Policy political settlement does not mean the taliban will sue for peace. That is very unlikely scenario. Inning b so there has to be some modality for the taliban andin with those regional actors so if i were to identify that was fully articulated is the thought to bring about a diplomatic process for those that werero atghting. And with those insurgents fighting against the Afghan Government. But in some sense it has been fighting for the last 40 years. Such as my colleaguesnk have made clear the challenges we being together inside afghanistan to get to a positive outcome it is right there are very important things for the economy and governance a combination of working with the government and those Political Forces it isn important to remember that parliament is not to smooth at the moment. The gove still needs to be smoothed out at times. Still n so with this bilateral mechanism to measure progress to help facilitate progress even though we are asking a lot of afghanistan to change in these things are not ec the there will also need actors to participate. The with to understand what is going on. We in the internationalundersta partners need to discussr this Going Forward. And then not sought for a separated from the of their donors. The it is really important and there others that are working their with one and sort of another. And they will be key if we can move ahead with this regional process to help facilitate that so Coalition Management or Partner Management is the important one evection Going Forward but as rick correctly said of lot of that is outside of afghanistan with close coordination with what you are doing that is a big set of diplomatic task and all politics to get a useful dialogue going. To get a and into print as together to a common bird tojective. So there is a lot of definition and needs to go one where we want to me it in several years to sayain is there is a long standing set of issues to reduce their rivalry thinking how you do that so there is a lot to do here to demand a nuanced to of that coordinated u. S. Effort. Have a question of regional actors and going for word and now the next will be q a with the audience. Those regional actors and russia of the Security Side and china more aligned with investment with ambassador olson. Player a and with the assistance secretary for south asia and with those negotiations in the region and is not just hoping to forge security ties between afghanistan and india but the economic aspect and india has been a major player to support development in afghanistan but also to try to promote commercial ties and there is that commitment on the part of india us to expand trade and those Assistance Program and certainly on thehe commercial side. From commercial trade perspective pakistan with afghan goods and then catching up that i where exports with commodity trade experts in with those that dont have opium show that they regionally are the next door neighbors the chinese have attempted to strike rand bargains with gas supplies or rail lines to a lot economically to help the chinese commercial engine but not the afghan commercial engine for right now 70 percent of the afghan economy is informal so the trading borders to extract minerals and resources butin instead to enhancing the of livelihood or the power centers. So that a regional dimension and i ran is that insignificant. On the political side an increase of the hedging strategies says almost allll of the regional players rucept india. And to build the relationships with the taliban despite a lack of ideological issues on the part of iran. Pakistan has never really abandoned a hedging strategy with regard to afghanistan so china has become much lower engaged that day large the share a common perception and even to some extent with regard to pakistan that is a concern about an governs patient spaces with every tax on gass attack on the respective homelands. For those that have had a safe haven of sorts in those border areas. What is central to u. S. Policy right now but what has not received as much discussion what leverage United States actually has there is a considerable emphasis over the past decade and a half most recently in substantially more over the Years Service pales in comparison to what china puts into pakistan rainout. That economic corridor is a piece to put 46 billion into pakistan of directed investments. And with u. S. Economic sister assistance. But what and looking at day map is a landlocked country in then to sustain a garrison for some period of time we need to access by pand and air. And lester relations were to you dramatically improve and even by air the most direct route is over pakistan. So there is a temptation in washington with our degree of leverage because of how we view our own substantial Assistance Programs. Ance the reality that it will pursue is its own define National Interest we need to address this at a politicaldr level and the u. S. Taking the initiative to launch a Political Initiative that is a pathway toward the settlement of the conflict is the only way to redress field commit to question of hedging me. We will have to work very hard to establish this dialogue with pakistan with these partners pushing in the same direction unlike china to persuade them this is in the long term interest is very important to get into and out come. Those that have friends groups to help facilitate that agreement. But if you dont some not so friendly friends show up of their own anyway to make it much more complicated to get to a peaceful solution. There is a lot of good economic things to get those across the pipelines toin agree and working for girl with the landmass. [laughter] so that is why in with that rivalry at the same time. Saw this leaves touche the very active Regional Policy of how do we incentivize a path using other actors that can be useful . Bidding pakistan is the greatest influence if they are organized in a way. N one how do we get engaged with the rail and and what willga they do to mess things up if they dont like what is going on . Through those first conference is we had in the fall 2001 and they want to play a constructive role. And they were happy to see the change. With geostrategic evidence theres a way if we can bring them into a process in a constructive way on Common Ground. Much. Now we have 25 minutes from the public we will takebout two or three questions at a time. The is identify yourself. I am interested in the future of pakistan and india a because according to my father we were possibly converts in the ethnic background. With ambassadors to explain that this question has beenas so convoluted and responsible for the chaos it with those drawbacks to the strategy and is the result of this confusion in from pakistan in the soviet invasion. I am from the afghan embassy. L they never announced al qaeda. Who are working together with other terrorist organizations so that assistance has been so that should side with the taliban. And with those terrorist organization. But were always open to the sincere dialogue but that never happens. Because because it does not take withe. Because in to help take action. But the only way is to focus more and then you also mentioned of the pursuit seven my question is. That will lead embassadort olson gophers. [laughter] who is the taliban . So to be relatively coherent organization for pro and knowing of primary readers and we can identify the fact that to us several governing bodies. And the first of city games in pakistan. With that Taliban Political Commission to deal with foreigners in negotiating with foreigners within informal presence in doha. And to jump to my colleagues question about mortality modality to save the firstever is to revive in 2013 to open formally the Taliban Office for the purpose of discussing peace with the Afghan Government in a publicly recognized way. Then the second step is to breed in the regional players who are so of significant, there are a lot of challenges their with great difficulty conceptually a double and how to reconcile to bring india and pakistan in the same room. I will not underestimate that but the sea was what they should be pursuing as a way for word but i fully agree the taliban has not renounced definitively any ties with the al qaeda. There are some hints there has not been a formal break and is well established and then to break with al qaeda and respect the afghan constitution those are end conditions and that was the policy of the United States but it is unrealistic to expect what are perceived as concessions would be made at the outset i think it will come at the end of the process. So that is the withdrawal of the four forces it is equally unrealistic to expect United States to concede that point early in the process but there is the diplomatic negotiation and discussion the only way to find out whether a deal is possible to get into that negotiating space and talk about the core issues. And they argue. There is the difference in from those living in pakistan it is true battle so and often it takes a long process to define what they really want what thega government really wants to find Common Ground there is a lot of failed efforts buy you try to create the conditions so that perception is more positive like in colombia how long it took many years from both parties in difficult negotiations so if you look adobes places been to attack specifically u. S. Persons or civilians or others that is part of the negotiations but that is part of the initial discussion hopefully youll get to that that is the point of the Afghan Government if we dont try this path is unlikely to find a solution where there is the active sanctuary and it is very hard to find. We have done a deal with havo the taliban, that is the least acceptable element with the Political Commission so it does suggest there is a degree of coherence. [laughter] em with the afghan womens council. Co focusing only on those military aspects so one topic with conversations is the womens role of the selfreliance conflict resolution and. How does that incorporate those achievements with the economic advancements while still avoiding backsliding and then put dissipation of the process . So as the ambassador wayne mentioned columbia as an optimist, i think about the implementation or to sign the deal and were done. Suss to questions for embassador olson moving beyond the modality to speculate that a broad outline in in terms ofve leverage with pakistan could you call mental importance of trade . If that is a source of leverage . That constitution and protects the rights of women and i believe that the administration is serious about mitt womens rights and Employment Opportunities for women. Their own development is limited lucansky literacy rates but it knows the donors Largest Program is on womens empowerment to buildng the of quality and skills to become leaders in the economy. So both within the economy has been a critical part of u. S. Assistance over 12 years. That was put into the budgetrs. To fund other activities to direct loan pledges support that basically has two basic budgets and those that have been in some of theubte afghanistan budget and the house conference will continue those said they think there hasnt been any major announcement that will pull back from the. And one of the closest advisers is a strong support one of the Largest Organization supporting women globally but that was a big focus i know she has a big voice to maintain the support longterm. So with the United States went in the southern primary focus on the implementation whether midwives are othersmen. Have been implementing the vaccination and programs all over afghanistan now the death rate is down record numbers. Women have done that. So sulfone penetration is a large portion have so phones. To to get the call from the midwife to do vaccinationsth and Health Checkups and have children there as opposed to before to go for or fibers six hours to have health care. Is in just ulfilas the opening the door and i hope we continue our support longterm. Before i give a compressed version with reconciliation is respect for the constitution with the provisions. It is huge of the important is the important part of any political settlement once that was under way. Youd have to be a serious discussion and i think that i suspect they would want a strong womens representative component and the gains have to be preserved for girl what is the deal . This is very w speculative but it seems to me breaking down these issues purely internal issues that appear from the civil war and regional dimension that is interference is a the question of the four forces to say over the past 16 years. Would be would i would be looking to do is get assurances actual evidence of breaking the links between the taliban and al qaeda. And to in return to think about a withdrawal of Foreign Forces but obviously the devil is in the details to be sure there is something in forcible and reversible if they dont turn into a reality. The s external element that afghan territory cannot be a threat to anyone in the region are used against therne else. So to talk about the safe haven on the pakistan the side of the border he would say there are safe havens on the of their side. Those issues need to be addressed. And with that Peace Process this is the core issue of the one have much to use sayreai but those broad boundaries. There has to be some discussion the constitution if it needs to be amended and how the taliban in the peaceful way. P so that they do have some i meanhat afghan politics are about reconciliation to see this developing. To see how this would bepl brought about. We should not underestimate the emergence of the Islamic State it does change those dynamics someone it is not out of the aroma of possible that has changed the calculations on Foreign Forces to be discussed. End if that helps to assure the stability. Exit is true it has been the largest trading partner over the years. I havent looked at the numbers recently but i suspect china is moving ahead. I dont they there is anything we want to do to reduce exports so in that positive sense with that incentive that it is day textile producing country to import textiles into the United States would be a big boon to the economy but nobody is thinking about care its right now. I lea so whether this administration pursues trade deals. So potentially that doesnt have a real opportunity. Uick, i thats can be part of a confidencebuilding and trust building process there are people of both sides of the border but second it is important that is brought up. There are voices from the United States we have all dedicated a lot of time and effort. And over the last 14 years for those viewers who have been in afghanistan. And there are three major and so second and then nobody was in the region is specifically for employment. And that is the war industry. And with it to an drifty but even the greater problem everything in afghanistan but if you have the appendectomy the surgeon bin to get the surgeon to give face surgery and that actual problem of afghanistan. For a li so when candidate bill clinton said in 1989 that it is the economy. It any final comments . And wendy things the government economy. Economy and that is the only way to build sustainable growth. They would not hit that without the private sector being the economic engine. And to focus on the private sector solution but if you want to have progress you need to talk about economic diplomacy and jobs that wont happen unless there is a private sector not to grow y poppy. A formal certainly the objectivere of the government that the private sector they growth target being high a exports b for girl isnt with those mechanisms but as something it needs to be analyzed for go. At the end of the day there is no question with the success of afghanistan. Ienci and with that develop being rolled over the 35 year career is if you an unpaid political compact it works better and with that political compact. We do have the framework what progress is made. With the economic area the problem is making it work for girl so if we can do that over the next year we can hopefully see some good progress. Thanks for the of panelist and the discussion in this concludes this session and. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
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