Transcripts For CSPAN2 U.S.-Transatlantic Relations 20170918

We will make it through and stand together and be united. Host of course. Thank you for your time, congresswoman. A forum on us transit atlantic relations as european Foreign Policy experts talk about europes approach to russian aggression, trade, immigration and relations with the United States on these topics. The Brookings Institution is the host of this event. Thank you for joining us here. My name is bruce jones, Vice President of the Foreign Policy here at brookings and my pleasure to welcome you here today for todays event hosted by the Brookings Center on the United States and europe in collaboration with the robert. [inaudible] this event is part of our expanding partnership. This is a multi Year Research program and platform that will spur a range of new activities that will spur on debate not only on the relationships but on global issues the transatlantic partners can touch together and work on together. We are very grateful to bosch for the support of this initiative and were particularly grateful that they recognize that the value that perkins brings. Fe we are very pleased soon to be able to announce the new bosch senior fellow that will be joining us at capacity to our team to address some of the challenges and questions in the relationship and, as we see in todays discussion, those are substantial. The challenge is based in europe are numerous from an upsurge inn nationalism and on populism,m, institutional turmoil following the brexit decision, to lingering economic concerns after the financial crisis, slot growth, high on employment, russias continued effort to destabilize europe and the ongoing refugee crisis. Of course, the United States has a fair idea of its own issues to be working through which adds to the complexity of the challenge. We are approaching a little European Election in germany and these issues are shipping up not only to be central to those politics but to the broader european debate, as a whole. I would say that in both cases, both United States and in europe, these debates are constraining discussion about the way in which we need to be working in the world and tackling larger global issues. I think the discussion is extraordinary and timely and underscores the need for this expanded effort on the Transatlantic Relationship and in the work we can do together. We will be building on that effort here at brookings, as yo know our team has had some changes. Many of you know that fiona hill who was the director of our center for europe and the United States is joined the white house as senior director for european russia. She is on leave from brookings for that assignment and while she is way im very pleased that our europe team is in new leadership in tom rice. He recently authored a very important book called all measures short of war which is the best account of their of the changing geopolitics of the moment in which the Transatlantic Relationship is located. We have a couple of other folks joining our team which is terrific. Victoria newland, assistant secretary for europe and shall be joining the team. Our current president of the institute will step down later in the fall. Jamie. [inaudible] p and im delighted today to welcome the french visiting fellow who joined the team now. As you can see we are adding considerable policy making and its real testimony to the partnership that we are able to do that much appreciated. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the proceedings over to my friend and partner from bosch. He will say a few remarks and then we will get underway. Christian. [applause] thank you for that, bruce. Ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome from my side and a big thank you to our colleagues at brookings for hosting us here today in dc. My name is christian and im senior Vice President of. [inaudible] it is a pleasure to see so many guests and members and familiar faces at the Transatlantic Community for the second eventto of brookings boss initiative or in short the bb ti. When asked about the state of Transatlantic Partnership germay federal president and until recently foreign minister recently told the press that there was never been so much uncertainty in the history of the germanamerican relationship as there is at the present moment. Whether or not you agree with a the statement, i think is beyond doubt that we are facing one of the most difficult periods for Transatlantic Relations in decades. This is among the many reasons why the Brookings Institute have expanded our corporations under the bb ti and its two pillars, highquality research and programming and parking scholars are scaling up research and analysis on the most pressing transatlantic issues and challenges over time. Over the course of the next year are two institutions will host a series of events on both sides of the atlantic to build and expand a resilient Transatlantic Network contribute to sustained dialogue between united in europe, and to reinvigorate the transatlantic collaboration on global issues and social cohesion. This is an issue, challenge, not only in europe but also in the us, i guess. The topic of todays panel, the future of europe, cannot be more timely. The challenge is that the eu currently faces are enormous and as current foreign minister recently put it have brought the historic projects of the eu to the brink of collapse. In the economic sphere lingering concerns about the future of the slow growth and persistently high unemployment rates and in many eu countries continues put pressure on politicians and the european project. The Foreign Policy spirit external actors like the increasingly authoritarian governments of turkey and russia, as well as transnationar terrorism and this day is another sad note for unfolding in the city of london all these challenges test the European Union. One of europes biggest concerns is the large flow of refugees and migrants from africa and the middle east. Since 2011 civil war imploded and its a massive rescue be christ crisis with a vermilion had in people toward the European Union. [inaudible] it has triggered a perceived righteousness regarding the Fair Distribution of refugees against the eu countries and ultimately contributed to brexit, as well as the rise of rightwing parties, some of which harbor very strong anti eu sentiments. In germany, current polls show the right wing alternative for germany to possibly rank third in the upcoming federal elections later this month. Giving the uncertainty of polls these days this or six place would be possible, as well. Thes these forces continue to challenge the european project from within. Longtime assumptions like the benefits of open borders and the significance of deeper and Wider European Union and even the relevance of the Transatlantic Relationship are being contested. It is therefore only consequential that the bb tis focus of topic of 2017 is the resurgence of nationalism with the comparative perspective on similar developments in the us d in order to assess the character and dynamics behind them, as well as the constraints they place on Transatlantic Relations. Cu i will not come to an end without some hope and optimism even though i am german. We might not have a sense of f humor but we can be optimistic. This years election in austria, france and the netherlands prove that many citizens still believe in the european process is a project for the peaceful future and therefore i look forward to the german elections in a week from now because even though the odds are not richland, then, by the way, has to face the democratic partys on the platform of the established platforms of the democratic system which i think will be something to look forward to we still have the luxury in germany, in my opinion, some, compatriots on the panelc disagree but we still have the luxury that in germany the choice is between two real europeans and two democrats who run for chancellor. Im looking forward to todays insight from the Panel Discussion on the future of europe, as well as the following keynote conversation between victoria newland. Without further ado, i thank you very much for your attention and look forward to and engaging, thoughtful broking day. Thanks. [applause] thank you to christian and to bruce. E. My name is tom rice and im delighted to share a terrific panel, i think, on the future of europe and looking at the Transatlantic Relationship and looking forward to the conversation. We have a terrific lineup and very briefly i like to introduce everyone. They have very long bios in the sheets that i wont get into but im particularly pleased to welcome start new visiting fellow in the center for the us and europe and was previously policy planning staff in france. Were delighted to have her join us here first public event, first of many in the next few years. Is also a fellow and Senior Advisor and Mccarty Associates but most importantly, he is a new book that came out this week which is titled thatcher continent and the subtitle is europes fate of the west and i havent read it yet but i have purchased it and i encourage everyone to do so. I heard bill speak about it earlier this week and it is terrific. Look at the state of the eu and where it might be headed and we look forward to hearing from his book in a few minutes. Next is the senior fellow here at brookings and our residentto expert on germany and all things european and transatlantic. Next is a senior fellow of the director of the turkey project here at brookings. Lets dive into and if i could start with this important new book out this week, you spent the last two years talking to many of the Senior Leaders and their many officials and others in europe about this remarkablee set that affected the eu over the last five years. We look back five years and many people here said in washington that it wasnt an issue anymore because of all the problems have been solved. How do you think about it today in terms of the optimism and pessimism. Is europe in the process of unraveling or we have we seen a rebound that it might be about to turn the corner . Thank you, tom. I think theres a slight mood of optimism permeating europe today thanks to an economic recovery that has taken place the last few months. I think that the landscape is more fragmented than ever. The income gap between north and south is worse than ever. Is exacerbated by the economic crisis over the past ten years and theres a split between east and west. As weve seen, the worsening relations between poland and germany with poland asking for s war reparations which is raw and the battles that poland and hungary have been having with brussels that they seem to be turning their back on democratic values, in terms of cracking down on the free press and the judiciary and there will be a continuing struggle to sort this out, even after the german election and the presumption that chancellor merkel will get a fourth term. As tom alluded to, the recentth crises, the right refugee flows have been stopped from turkey into greece they continued from north africa into italy and spain which is creating a lot of tension in the battle to get russia to play a more cooperative role is still continuing. There is a newly resurgent and belligerent russia this week they are conducting for games in and around belarus which has troubled a lot of people at nato. The precedent set four years ago it was a prelude to what their military involvement in eastern or canaan before that it went into georgia. Beyond that, there is of course the very difficult negotiations over the next couple of years with britain on the exit from the European Union. There has been a some buyers remorse in britain but i dont think it has reached the level where theres the political decision by any major party and hold a new referendum andthere s possibly remove the print from you. An all of these problems aree continuing and i might add, we have the Fastest Growing them economy in ten years and the way populism is not really diminishing because the economic recovery but law and justice is a very Popular National movement and it remains entrenched in power. The classic divisions between right and left are being replaced in europe and between populist nationalist andthe bi globalist and this is the big challenge i think over the coming years for the west which is the fate of the west is at stake here and will take great political courage to get this resolved. Thank you. Constanza, people say that germany is an incredibly boring election and very little excitement which i think everyone in britain and the us would trade for in a heartbeat but we are looking beyond that and there is about what chancellor merkel and wachtel do in the next four years particularly but could you talk is about how you see germanys role and also the wider context in europe in this postelection environment. Sure. Thank you very much. Its great to see everyone here with a full room. Ou i take that as the company went to europe and the Transatlantic Relationship obviously. Io i thank you can say its boring on the service but i suppose germans are always a littlee nervous about their own country. Im certainly feeling nervous. The mere fact that the alternative for journey partytya that is only four years old and started out as an anti europe party is now an exclusively anti immigrant and in some ways anti semitic party, racist certainly, and has made noth effort whatsoever and has in h fact refused all calls to distance itself from the morees openly right wing extremist elements of this movement and the fact that its even about to enter the boom truck with dozens of members is frankly deeply disturbing to me. Although, christian, i agree with you that having them exposed to the glare of public scrutiny and having them working is probably going to reveals th weaknesses. In the course of the last four years they have made it into 166 state legislators and whether that is the case that performance is legislative has been abysmal. They are also members most of their egregious figures, like many populist movements and parties, they are in the legislator and theyve collected hefty salaries. They have made raucous statements and contributed very little or nothing at all to business and government. I dont think the world is coming to an end because of that but it will change the nature of german politics and if they, p right now they been going from Single Digits where they been in the polls throughout the summer and, in fact, german polls could almost be said to be rocksolid until quite recently. The democrats were at on now, the fpd is plummeting to 20 and ive got friends taking bets p they could go down as far as 18 which would be a National Disaster for a party that is 150 years old and the. [inaudible]8 as we know, half of the voters are not decided yet so there is deom there for surprise, i fear. Under the circumstances becauser we have a multiparty system it is highly unlikely that the next but the succession debate depends on september 24 and 1 minute. That is, of course intense concern to her own party and Everyone Wants to be her successor in germany in general but what everyone else wants to know is what will germany do on the front of european and transatlantic politics and theres a huge agenda waiting which is also been more or less suspended over the summer and. Both of you to respond to the. I dont want to take up all the panel time but yes, the job of restarting the europeanan project in the transatlantic alliance, to some degree begins next sunday afternoon. On the succession, is it assumed that merkel will stay the entire term and not runng again or would she step down before germany doesnt have term limits in its constitution but it would be the only other chancellor whos ever tried for a fifth term. He said that the position of the german president had been totally underrated and had far more power than he was going to run for that. Since he was already well into his 80s at that time i think his party told him in no Uncertain Terms that that wasnt going to happen. I doubt that merkel is susceptible to the kind of delusion that subject to and i think she wont do that. I theres been speculation about her jumping off and i dont think she would do that. I think she would serve through to the end unless something happens and she would step down. The key thing to know about Angela Merkel and what differentiates her is that she has not needy. T thin she does this out of a sense of obligation. I dont think she really needs the spotlight to exist and i dont think there is some switch and her they get slipped by the spotlight and thats fills herno up with meaning and purpose. I think she genuinely thanks she has a job to do and so we will be looking at the key question before germany is what happens to the center left if the social democrats take the trouncing that it it appears and does the very successful triangulation that Angela Merkel moving it to the middle on the model of what clinton did in the 90s and tony blair did and its a third way which is not on the left with the right and will the element of the cdu that want to do that prevail or will the more conservative elements want towa occupy the place that is now being occupied in part by the fda and will they try to ingrain that and refashion a much more angular and much more shall we say, ideological concern. One thing we might come back to later as the state is the fate of the. He board [inaudible] turkey turkeys relationship with germany has not been a great shape over the last year and theres a fraught relationship between erewhon and chancellor merkel and broader than that theres tort keys ten years ago people were still talking about five years ago pathways to membership and what is your perspective and how does turkey fit in to europe hanging in this question of europe hanging in the balance in which we will go. Not a day goes by without some excitement erupting from turkey and the german turkish relations of being the center for some time. I would like to draw some parallels and if we were to go back 20, 22 years into the mid 1990s there was a very similar situation and two. Relations between turkey andpu germany were terrible to do with arms purchases. Germany was reluctant to do it because human rights record of turkey was terrible and there was a turkish question and situation in the southeast and there was a member of therring o cabinet referring to european member of parliament from germany couple of ladies with a word that one shouldnt employ about women. This was the state of our relations but the difference between then and now is that at the time there was a Transatlantic Community and including the United States. The Clinton Administration that had a big agenda for turkey, engaging turkey and anchoring it into the Transatlantic Community through the European Union. This was a time where the Customs Union was adopted and this is a time when the Clinton Administration turned over the leader of the pkk and clearly there had been some bargaining behind closed doors which open turkey to introduce some reforms that eventually lead it to become a candidate and start the negotiations. The difference now there are two differences. One is commitment to a green turkey as being a weekend and what was shocking for me from the debate between Angela Merkel was the social democrats should be dumping turkey and the two of them reusing turkey just to one person, poor relations with one person while half of the country had actually voted in the constitution of almost half of it voted against those amendments and referendums encountered quite a few questions about free and fair. That is one importanttween difference, the lack ofcing tur commitment, both in europe and on the side of the atlantic, as well. The second one is that turkey at the time had still a western location, very critical using their language towards the eu and the west but at the same time still this was the turkey that was part and parcel of the moving along into the western world. This is where the differencee wt lies right now. Turkey is led by a leader and its very difficult to talk about who is around because our cape is not the party that he p founded back in 2001 and 2002 is not the party that it was. The party of what was thenro called muslim democrats and it not there anymore and its a very strange Political Party that, in some ways, excuse my language, in a stalinist manner has the soundings of muslim democratic founders of our cape peace to the extent of removing them from photographs and webig list of vendors. This is significant that the same time there is resistance to drift away from the west. In turkey, we also use the technology of the train that is moving toward the west but the people inside it are rushing towards the east and thatnally, depiction is a good reflection. Institutionally in terms of counsel of european rights,owly nato, et cetera turkey is fully inside the west. Economically especially the last couple of years its trade with the eu has been expanding and the only area to exports is growing is the eu and the United States. Stt the middle east and not russia. Direct investments are still coming into turkey overwhelmingly from the west and interestingly turkey is going in the other direction as well. There is a recognition in thecad ranks of the turkish president as well where ever there is a flareup for the turkish leader you hear cabinet ministers almost uniquely pointing out the vocation towards the European Union and its relations with the west. Right now the picture is one where clearly turkey is pulling away from the west and its leader is burning with anti weston is him and feels himself comfortable in the company of the russian leaders and russia. From the ages of europe there is a serious challenge there and i think it would be great if the west in the eu and the United States were able to pull up and bring back that agenda of the 1990s and i think there would be people prepared to play that. Thank you. In the beginning of the year of been almost petrified about the impending and thrilled by macron and hes seen as iraq star and allows people to hopes on him interning your future fate around. But, you know, just come from serving in the french government and how does it look from france what are the expectations for macron and has the relationship between him and chancellor merkel after the german election assuming she is reelected how realistic is the grand bargain between the two of them that helps him achieve his objective mark. I am delighted to be here foe this first event. Ve his well, actually you mentioned the campaign and it was a very exciting campaign. Quite different from the american campaign. Happy ending to planning for because the two main parties were utterly destroyed and especially the socialist party from which macron was coming from and what happened is that macron really iran a campaign on a pro European Base and many people pointed out he was waving during the meeting. Famously, we remember that he played the anthem on the night of his victory and he did something that wrenched politicians hadnt done for decades which is running ae really pro european campaign. A sort of european pride, if you will. Before hand, for years now the french politicians, as many other european politicians were too happy to exclaim that all the difficulties in europe are coming from brussels and all the successes from the national and macron just decided not to do that. After this very impressive windi and the following week where he got a huge majority in elections and once again crashed the other parties he had a rough summer and he is now facing a difficulty that he is down 22 points and appreciation pulls and is now, i think, down to a 40 of ratings and france which is quite low and its notgain terrible and it could be much lower but mainly because they are facing the challenges and they want to reform the labor and its getting into difficulty of governing and governing from the center and so making everyone happy is not on the left and not on the right and its easier to have a journal opposition to policies. What is interesting is that at the same time he is doing that on is running a very Ambitious Campaign on the front of europe, on relaunching europe and theres a sort of macron moment for the european stage mostly because theres nobody else to really put forward a europeann narrative to put forward a vision for europe. Mostly because the germans are busy with their own electionbu because the brits are busy with brexit because if you talk about Transatlantic Relations francis not putting a global narrative forward so he can be the one really putting out new ideas and he just did several times. Last week in athens inecting particular where he talked about european sovereignty and this concept is interesting. European sovereignty he is rejecting talking about european sovereignty he rejects nationalism and National Sovereignty and hes basically once again, confronting populist and nationalist and putting everything at the european level. Otectsod this concept of european sovereignty comes with some ideas around the europe that should be proud of itself in a europe that protects its models in the citizens and has specific ideas on the left. For example,. [inaudible] one of the brits will you will have seats opening and he wants to do a cross europe list of proviamentarians and he is also talking about europe of Cultural Heritage where those answers on the identity front as well and t his password ideas on the budget and finance minister in all sorts of new ideas out there and now its the turn of others to say what they think of it. They have a close working relationship merkel aims to be warming up a little bit on these ideas. She knows that because of the fractured europe she needed to do more on the topic and they launched his own vision and hes not talking about the europe budget but indeed talking about converging on the ministry and the funds as well. I guess, macron at the moment has this possibility of being heard on the topic but well see if that works out. Thank you. One of the interesting things te about macron is that people expect chancellor merkel to do after the election is to deepenh european immigration in certain areas, some are more difficult than others. Europe is not united on that and many people point to the uk obviously is a country that has objected to that but theyre not the only ones. We see in central and Eastern Europe very different narratives of europe where they want to see maybe less integration but at the very least same stagnant and they dont want to deepen integration on immigration and border controls and other issues. With president chupps recent visit it highlights the distinction between potus vision of europe and the more western european vision. I thank you addressed in the book but how significant is the divide emerging between westernu europe in Eastern Europe and doesnt have that real implications for where europe il headed and initiated we betu worried about the future of Democratic Institutions and parts of the eu . Ffort by well, i think that is right. After the german election we are likely to see an effort by chancellor merkel and resident macron to relaunch the effort to greater integration of europe and that would involve very difficult decisions about how to complete the Banking Union, strengthen the euro zone and the finance minister and you will see the 19 members of the euro zone attempting to move faster and those that are left out the other remaining eight countries after britain will feel that they are being left behind. This idea of a multi europe has been kicking around for quite some time but once this becomes more and more evidence you will see a lot of resistance from central and Eastern European countries who feel that they will be demoted to second, third class citizens and again this will lead to paralysis because of so many decisions have to be take on the basis of unanimity and if they try to come up with the treaty this would be stalled for years to come. I think there is a recognition that this will be a very difficult not to crack in terms of how you see Eastern European countries on board in terms of the european project. I might add that while 70 of europeans say they want European Union and they want to remain members of the European Union only 34 of them think that europe is going in the right direction and this is across the board in eastern and western europe. There are a lot of challenges facing the leadership and i think this is where chancellor, merkel recognizes that. The next phase of her tenure in power will be her most difficu difficult. Thank you. Constanza, do you want to i think all these divisions are very serious and they should be taken seriously. At the same time, there is also some real enthusiasm in unexpected places for this kind of further integration. The poorer countries, all three of them are gung ho for deeper integration. They became members of the euro zone at a time when it was an unfashionable thing to do and underwent some really quite painful National Authority measures to do so. That obviously had a larger political background which is the threat they feel and it is a political project of signing up. The other country that is more than you could possibly know because they never turn up in International Conferences is the spanish. If at any time you see a spanish senior diplomat come to washington they talk of the integration game more than the french, in my experience at least. Even though their own country may disintegrate with capital. [inaudible] lets wait and see, id say. Yeah. It is possible. Its not impossible that that would happen. At the same time, i think thee spanish have had benefited from nato membership and the eu membership and they know that. They dont have a significant populist movement interestingly so they never quite came up to the level of cities but i think that cattle and Independence Movement is seen in the western spain with a lot of wealth, a lot of distance. Im also not quite sure that the they would get joy out of it but i say this because the spanish federalism provides economy to the. [inaudible] we will see. He oth so, the other thing of course is that a lot of europeans know that there are problems that we have that cant be solved otherwise by deeper corporations. Whether you do that by actually kicking the can up to the european level or you do it on the intergovernmental level i dont think its really the kind of ideological issue that it wont was. I think that most people arere willing to tackle that and the seniormost pragmatists in europe focuses on government itself who introduced what people the intergovernmental, union method which was co port lets make europe more intergovernmental ten years ago in a famousch wasd speech. I honestly actually wish the french project well. Ea i think a lot of really good ideas there but i think that the germans may apply a break on some of them. Im hoping that we find a reasonable compromise but at the end of the day there will be more integration and we certainly one of the predictions people have had about europe is that there would be more exit movement but that hasnt come to past as far. I dont see that happening right now that is a trumpet effect as well. We will come to him in ais as moment. I just wanted to reflect on what bill said. We, meaning academics and maybe for all european integration, we assume that this was a menial process and that this would simply go on to the point of even turkey becoming a member of the European Union and this assumption collapsed with the financial crisis and im not very sure that we still have a good grasp of why it collapsed and what the implications and the consequences are out there. The reason why i wanted to come in is the way in which this bill is described this multi europe can be eternally destructive on itself. It made me think the dynamics in turkey and i wanted to explain how we came this far. I think needs to be addressed and taken up, precisely at the time, when we see europe putting projects forward including the Upcoming Elections in germany. I think it is not going to be an easy exercise and may be on the shoulders of the Younger Generation to think about and to come up with the kinds of ideas that the others in the european included in the upcoming election in germany, and resolving that is not going to be an easy exercise, and maybe on the shoulders of the Younger Generation to think about and come up with the kinds of ideas that the Founding Fathers of the European Union have come up with just after the second a world war. In terms of how president macron has been pushing this deep innovation line, how does he think about it . He must be aware of the division between eastern and western europe, does he believe theres a divide and theres some big differences there or does he basically believe that the eurozone can push on ahead regardless of what others think. Have always been quite attached to the idea of europe or a core of europe that would move forward. As long as it includes the branch. That goes without saying. They were never really into enlargements, there was always the deepening of europe or the enlargement of europe with two different angles on which the french were always deepening integration of europe. Im not sure exactly what macron thanks of poland, but i can see that he seems to want to replicate his message for confronting french populace on the national stage. What he did was really confronting the National Front and by pushing against her in the second round which had never happened before and by really demonstrating that she was mistaken, going. 5. And by also putting forward a very positive pro european message, once again of european price that nobody had done before and that seems to have worked. He wants to replicate that so he seems to be doing that on the moment at the european stage. Astic, its fantastic, its very impressive, he is very charismatic but i think there is a risk there and its a risk that i call the obama trap. That is believing that because your election was sot symbolic, because it was so strong and so powerful that your words will really be meaningful to other people and that you will, by your own charisma have people follow you in the direction you want to go. He did this several great speeches in europe and you can see already there is aea risk of Wishful Thinking and exactly like obama during his speech in 2009, putting forward a very ambitious plan for europe but not necessarily having the people responding to that ambition. In some ways trump does the same thing. Aving its so symbolic that others should follow suit. I think every president comes in having one and election. If i may, on the obama thing, the idea on the future of europe but hes proposing that other countries do so at the same time. He sang there should be more transparency and that they should not be discussed behind closed doors. Thats a fantastic idea, but that sounds a lot about the town holes that were organized around obamacare which actually was a moment where they really go together and strengthened together. There is a risk there that by macron being so ambitious to solidify opposition against him. I found the democratic conventions weird where they would have these conventions were people will come and be represented and talk about the issues. Thats what a parliament. But its comparatively weak one. I just want to point out, i think the most striking similarity to trumpsel election and the rise of the populist nationalists are the angry disenchanted voters who feel they been left behind by globalization and you also see 40 of young people,eeho under 25 had voted for marine le pen. There is a lot of worry that if they dont. [inaudible] you mentioned earlier the democrats had been swept away, not just in france but there message had been diminished in many other countries. Everybody accepts universal healthcare, the role of the state and in a way Andrea Merkel has destroyed those for her own such as gay marriage. I think the mainstream ruling parties seem to be in a state of political bankruptcy. O nobody seems to have a compelling message to move forward, and this opens up the space for populace on both the far right on the far left. Im not sure, i know you want to comment on this but just pivoting, obviously british politics have been an unexpected state following and the negotiations seem to be running into trouble and most people believe it will be between the leaders. There hasnt been much space to do this before the german election. The question is basically how bad is this going to get after september when people need to get down to talk about the details, in germany , whats the probability ofsee n the outcome or are we likely to see it be dominated by the great pen of negotiation and a possibility. Okay, brexit. I dont know how many of you have seen the recentntea editorials, the sun had the great idea of publishing a pro brexit editorial in what i thought was german. German commentators have been going think this is worse than google translate. They describe it as a puffedre up dandy. It didnt go down very well. I also learned the expression of pigheaded intransigence in german. Its actually extremely funny. The problem here the thing is, of course, apart from these elements, brexit isnt funny. Britai i think its a tragedy for europe but i suspect it will also be at tragedy for europe of those people who voted for it because they thought their lives were going to become better. I think the economic and fiscal data that we are seeing now painted a very different picture. L world ar honestly, i deeply regret that. In my ideal world, brexit would have never happened, but i dont think there is an exit from brexit. I dont see that happening triet despite the fact that some people seem to be hoping that. His done i think there would be a public revolt if anyone tried that. We are going to see, on the european side, and attempt to get this done as cleanly as possible. I am not sure that we have yet seen the outlines frome britain. If you want to divorce, go ahead and do it we have a household to run and a family to raise. But, the one ray of light that i have seen last week which i thought was quite interesting was this new british proposal on contributing to the European Defense fund they can become the basis for british eu defense and securityre corporations in ways that are both pragmatic. If we had more of that we would all be a lot better off. Who is all of us . Really great idea, how can we work through this and also, how can we extend this attitude of pragmatism and trying to solve problems together while we are pursuing this negotiation which we understand our final and will happen. That would be my take on this. The larger point i wanted to make is that i think what were looking at in europe, after these last Election Year is over is a series of structural changes in european politics. Both of those are dangerous s because they are the result of the temptation by elected politicians to go around Representative Democracy and use social media and other forms of appeal to the electorate without going through what they provided for in their Constitutional Orders. So i think, in doing so, i understand the temptation that social media provides and how to use it successfully as an example of the current president of the United States or should i say effectively, but i think there in lies a huge danger to our Constitutional Orders in europe and thereby the stability of the european project, and that is something worth discussing in greater depth. In, trum were going to go to the audience in about ten minutes or so. I also want to touch briefly on Vladimir Putin, trump and iran. A quick follow up on brexit. There was a remarkable meeting three weeks before the referendum when they met with david cameron. Theyre trying to think, is there some kind of package off concessions or attractive ideas that would perhaps weigh the vote and they said look, we cant do this. They said why did youth schedule the referendum thursday in the week of the final exams of University Students and on the eve of the biggest pop Music Festival at glastonbury which meant young people were either going to get, go out partying or study for their exams. The young people who had the most at stake was around 30 and thats what caused the votes. T it caused a succession of tactical and strategicsi blunders and the tragedy is the people who will pay the most is young people who will avoid this. Whether there is a small chance that this can be reversed, perhaps a second referendum, im doubtful that it will be hard to reverse. Whether the brits have leverage, given that they are the Strongest Military power, i think they need to be very careful in how they play that card because that could generate a lot of antagonism from the european partners. We a moving from brexit onto Vladimir Putin, we havent mentioned them yet. Russia is playing a very active role in the politics of europe and the politics of the u. S. D looking ahead over the four or five year period, is there a possibility of leveling off of European Russian relations . We would like to see a continuation of tensions and a cold war of sorts between the two. What does that geopoliticalpl look like. Weve just showed an event. Persh promote. The way i look at it is theoretically, you would think that turkey would be deeply uncomfortable with the policies that Vladimir Putin has been following including the annexation of crimea and its policies toward ukraine, not to mention whats going on in syria. The reason for it is turkey is deeply attached to territorial integrity. Yet what we see are two leaders getting closer and closer to each other and one of them is even morere enthusiastic than the other. I think this may well be up to his agility and flexibility that lacks on the western side. E y to he used the coup attempt very successfully. The very issue that played to the heart of the president of turkey, at the time when he had just started to build bridges while the United States and the Obama Administration remained absolutely paralyzed partly because i suspect there unable to cash in on the way in which the public hit the street and defended democracy. By remaining paralyzed, thelutat west was allowed to hijack the whole thing. Thats where we are here. This aspect frightens me, the way in which they successfully sway a whole country to its government and Public Opinion. There is a Turkish University thats been running poles and its been easy to see how Public Opinion changes perceptions from russia is lower than the United States. When it was down in sanctions came up it peaked and it has come down. The United States is hovering at high levels. I think at the root of it lies the mismanagement of the coup attempt and the subsequence politics of it. They enjoy it to play along with them. One more question before we go to the audience. We have 15 or 20 minutes froms e questions. President trump has said he is determined not to certify in october. We will see if that transpires. R two ag nikki haley made a speech next door a week or two ago on how the u. S. Might pull out of the deal. Others have been speculating how that might happen. France has been a leading player in europe a leading player on the iran deal. How would europe react, what type of transatlantic problems might arise if there was a split over the iran s nuclear issue. On the iran deal, the first thing we have to say is it is as much ideological game around iran and an electoral game, letting go of the iran deal is also one of Trumps Campaign promises. He wants to do it. He will, in a way, try to do it in one way or another. As much as he pulled out of Climate Change. The court, he will want to find a way to show his face and he has done something on the matter. There is another game playing in the white house and a game of chicken where nikki haley is saying basically we will be on the right side and sayde that iran is not complying and then Push Congress to make a decision, whether they continue waiting sanctions or reinstate and congress is trying also to not do that, to not be in the position of being the ones for realistic reasons, waiting sanctions or be the one destroying the deal. Thats on the american side. I think we are going to see it play over the next few weeks, theyre always mentioning this sanction and that distinction may not be waived so it still quite uncertain. The reality is it will be the a big ball of contention, not only because of during the negotiations but also because they consider it important deal for regional stability and thinking of the case of syria, macron has says he wants to open the door to discussions or possible discussions on the future of syria and this cannot happen. It would put all of that into question. It will be as much as the Climate Change deal was, is a big bone of contention. Thank you. I just wanted to add, following what they said, i think relations are going to be one of the biggest pointsts of contention and last year they met or spoke with Vladimir Putin about 70 times. The principal message said look, one of the great diplomatic achievements fors postwar germany was to build peaceful and prosperous relations with all nine of its neighbors. Why cant you, russia, realize that building is similar prosperous relationship with your neighbors would be beneficial. Instead, you seem to be trying to destabilize your neighbors, and you need the west because your strategic challenges really come from the east. Chinas encroachment in eastern siberia and islamic radicalism in the south. One of the most frustrating exercises is that they could never get them to respond or engage to that question. N. As we all know hes using the hostility as a way of whipping up support for his regime. Lets take three questions in a row, keep it short and make sure theres a . Ic im peggy with the Congressional Correspondent for the his hispanic outlook and it seems clear that im behind brexit and almost allll of these difficulties, you have not mention that at all. Italy is dying right now with all their immigrants, and i dont know, theres some talk about italian exit because of not recognizing the National Sovereign rights to disk decide who can come in andid who cant. What do you think about that. Thank you. Im right behind. One of the european storylines is that france loved the European Community and the eu as long as it could run it, but now its clear that the junior partner has alluded to germany as the keys in terms of influencefr and authority and money to potentially put the brakes on some of those ideas. How is this partnership going to work, the driving motor going to work with germany as a senior partner and france is the junior partner. Thank you. Good morning. The explanation around economic inequality or migration are similarlyy heading the country. It was securing humor andd dancing ability. Well. I think its fascinating. You want to come in first . So many jokes about austria and germany that im having to suppress right now. On the franco german, i honestly think their friends and i have ever seen a french president willing, able and determined to take up that challenge i think its macron. I would really like this to be a more balanced partnership and i like not all of his ideas but a lot of them and i suspect that a lot of my fellow germansso including german policymakers think the same thing and would love to have an excuse to depart from some of the more rigid policies. Think macron could give us cove cover. The other problem is actually a real one. They have been flirting with russia and flirting with populism in the last election. I worry about them. Its not to say there arent a Civil Society on the other side of that, there is, but iit think austrian commitment to westernstyle democracy is looking a little tenuous and it appears to be closer to the thinking then we cannot all feel comfortable with. I would like to say a word on pruden, if i may. I think we obsess too much about him the person. I think what we should really be worried about is this interference in the question of democracy and it comes out of a sense of weakness. It is not going to stop until russia becomes a different kind of country, and because it is a very difficult and perhaps impossible proposition, that kind of action is going to remain a challenge for the for seeable future and because we no longer have a war on iron itrtain, the impacts of thesee actions, and their direct effect on us will be much more tangible. Be it already is much more tangibl tangible. I think this metaphor is very unhelpful. Enge t i think that it presents the single biggest coherent trust and resilience problem that we currently have on the agenda. That the generation we need to rise to and will occupy for the rest of our working lives. Thank you. I would like to take up the . Migration and italy. I think it relates nicely to some of the themes we were discussing. Moving forward, this is the issue that i think is even more important than the Banking Union in the sense that the European Union has been trying for a common immigration and asylum policy. Becoming marginally deeperer and deeper but it hasnt crossed the threshold, andth because it hasnt crossed the threshold and there is no Central Authority that can take these migrants and their asylumseekers and process their application from the center and then implement the decisions that are taken up by the centra central, countries on the edge of the European Union, like greece, to cemex then spain as well, carry the burden more and more. Ation it really symbolizes the tension between the desire to move through integration and domestic politics that are at the center of this area. Im afraid they will continue to bear the brunt for a while to come. Orhood i would like to point out, europes neighborhood policy was supposed to be a great leap forward in terms of making europe a morero strategic minded entity and one of the focuses was on development in north africa. The way to stop illegal immigration was to build up industries and sources of income so that they would willing to stay home rather than caught across the mediterranean. When they tried to do this, it was blocked, you have morocco, tunisia, these luscious tomatoes that they were willing to export into europe in january and february and they were blocked because the farm lobbies in the netherlands where they grow these tomatoes as hard as baseballs,ts wanted to keep the market for themselves. This shows you, look, we knowhi all about lobbies in this country. The same thing has gone on in europe. Might also add that it becomes the two biggest recruitments for isis and a lot of retailers who went to the middle east came from there and if you saw recently, the terrorist attack in catalonia was carried out byby secondgeneration moroccans who had moved to spain. Maybe i will talk about, it was even more the case more striking right after brexit that it seems they had to face germany on more than one basis. I still think there are still a few elements that makes this relationship possible toward an equal relationship. They play an interesting historical role and also because it has a few elements that germany doesnt have any more. One of them is to bee refo extremely credible on the Security Side and we know that in the reform area, one of them is the Defense Security and there you have friends taking the lead on all of those topics. The other point is that it plays a role, sort of a a bridge between germany and south of europe. I think thats what macron is trying to do when he agrees it was clearly the europeanta sovereignty speech there was a message, i understand the greek, i understand your problems and your problems and hes taking the mantle of being the one to be able to reconcile europe. Just want to point out that is not just a question of all these people arriving and link to unemployment, theres a question of prosperity, but its also very much a question of identity of europe. T, its harder to understand, even if we have an extreme right, we are still a very diverse country with waves of immigrants and its changing now and its integrated to the highest level of society and i understand thats not the case for other european country, its different ethnic background. This will create a divide between east and west in every different country and this will not be sold overnight. When we are counting down the refugees and who takes them, et cetera, you have behind it a whole cultural and identity question. Is a gentleman here, three rows from the back. T thank you very much. At they r in light of the fact that somebody said 34 of europeome y feel that is headed in the wrong direction, what does that say for liberal democracy overall, especially in light of migration, income inequality and social media impacts. Is liberal democracy threatened . Thank you, and the lady over here. Thank you. [inaudible] i would like to mention briefly the Transatlantic Relationship and more specifically the relationshipte between the u. S. And the eu. We know the situation is quite difficult these days and i have a question, over the summer we saw that macron was able to build some kind of good relationship, they came to bastille day and it wasnt expected for the French Foreign ministry. You think background could be some kind of Bridge Builder between the eu and the u. S. To allow the europeans to maybe bring their messages to the white house thanks to the french president. And the final question was , let me put that one against the wall, yes, on the other side. The panel has about 30 seconds each. Thank you very much. I was curious, can we see ratification of the car, and european. [inaudible] why does germany seem to be holding it up, the common patent court. So from very general to very specific. We have about four minutes so if the panelists could answer any of those you choose, and also any other reflections and finish on whether you see the glass as halffull or halfempty. When we go in reverse order, if thats okay i will start with you. Yes, maybe i will suggest this one question, regarding macron and the state of the Transatlantic Relationship in general. There are many things that are pretty obvious ideologically in the way they behave and talk, but when they met twice already, there was no personality clash. On the contrary, they are new animals and the political sphere, they have never been elected to any elected office before winning the presidency, they both came and one in a surprise election and destroyed eitherace their party or the system where they come from. So in a way they saw each other in each other and they recognize each other and their personality quits. Image th i think it served a purpose for both of them. It was very good for trumps image that he would be valued enough to be invited there and he appreciated that very much. At the same time, former crown to show that he can talk to anybody, he is taking on the biggest challenges, even donald trump. More generally on how the french see the relationship, i think in a way they thought of donald trump before donald trump existed. They integrated the ideassrant that maybe the american alwarity guarantees would notee always be there, that the americans would have a very restricted vision and strategic interest and willbe not care about europe. They had integrated this idea and had been saying for years that europe should have itsbodyn own. [inaudible] now demonstrators just inviting this idea and its living proof that the french were right all along. Its wonderful. Just to finish, Climate Change in the run bill are still going to be. [inaudible] i would like to reflect on the first question and the challenge that liberal democracy faces. On this issue, it came up in the context of brexit. Ceu have politics that takes place in the way with societies weve and move toward more diverse and liberal environment. What i am seeing is a Movement Toward more and moreto. And populism. I personally, i get very nervous and very scared of referendums. Turkey was not a country accustomed to referendums. Now they are pushing them one after the other and seeing the consequence of that. Moving forward, it would be important that the establishment against which it seems there is revolt, they are still able to maintain that relationship and hopefully defend the liberal, democratic project that took off right after the Second World War and took it for granted. Although i am a lawyer, i know nothing about it. It will say one thing, patents arent just, theyre about medical technology and biotech. D huge amounts of money are involved in this. There is something of a world war going on between the american legal system. American law firms have been quite ruthless in trying to impose their standard on thec. European market for these things. That is a really interesting topic, let me put it that way. Its one that isnt generally discussed. Whatever is established there is going to be a really important institution. On the. Were just about out of time. There are many enemies out there, most of them outside our country. And thats what we have to do. When chancellor merkel returned home last meeting she said its time to take our destiny in our own hands and she pointed out that for the first time in 70 years shes dealing with president who sees europe as a commercial rival rather than a strategic ally. I think in terms of the big picture story, going forward, we could well be at a hinge moment in history where europe feels the need to move forward and find its own way and remove itself from the strategic umbrella and security protections of the United States. Thank you very much