Transcripts For CSPAN2 Taiwan Elections Discussion 20240713

I appreciate all of you coming out. Thank you. I particularly want to think russell and Global Taiwan Institute for partnering with us on this program today. Im glad we could work this out. There was a little election over the weekend and i dont know if everyone noticed but judging by the turnout perhaps you did. At the outset here i want to say a couple words about the election of taiwan on saturday and just a couple and turn it over to our guests and Panel Speakers to offer advice and insight. First of all, i think that the election says more about taiwan than it says about anything else. I only highlight that because i think we are immediately moving to what this means for china. For all practical purposes, all practical purposes, taiwan is not a part of china. Why do we move immediately to talk about what this means for china . What it means most is that taiwan values the same things that the rest of the free world values, its conducted its southern president ial election and major ecommerce meant. Its getting to be such a normal thing that its barely even merits congratulations anymore because we have an election every four years, every two years with midterm elections and the world does not congratulate us on having made this achievement but its commonplace in taiwan and become commonplace because they value the same things we do. I think the elections to hold a message for china and it is more than just one country, two systems which does get back to some of those fundamental issues. China needs to take a new approach to taiwan, one that recognizes where people in taiwan are on matters of taiwan sovereignty and taiwans relationship with china. Will they do that . We will hear from our guests in that regard and im very skeptical that they will because i think in beijing its an attitude they can predict the future and they understand the needs of history and that somehow history and economics will vindicate them in the long run and i think its an intellectual arrogant way to look at the future and what they need to do is look more closely at the demographics and the trends in taiwan and despite all odds that they will not do that i hope they will. The third thing i think that is election holds it holds lessons for u. S. Taiwan relations Going Forward it offers some new opportunities and the reelection and her position now and its slightly diminished but given the opportunity for u. S. And taiwan to move forward on some things in particular with ford on a freetrade agreement which i would say should be the number one priority in that relationship Going Forward right out of the gate out of the election because it coincides with the opportunity thats been created by that u. S. Side. Got a terrific group of people to talk to us about this today and we will start out with congressman ted, ted is the congressman from florida representing the Third District which he has done for seven years but more relevant to our task today i think is the fact that hes on the House Committee Foreign Affairs related to asian pacific. Hes been a terrific friend and ally of the Heritage Foundation. Many of the thing takes here in washington focus on asia generally but specifically on taiwan and i dont know if youve heard of this news but congressman is in his final term because remarkably he is keeping a pledge that he was elected and i think that is terrific achievement and im proud of him for having done that. Having worked with him a little bit over the last few years i can tell you one year is putting time for him to make trouble. Im sure he will have a lot to do this coming year and im sure it will go out very strong so were happy to have him here today to talk to us about the specifics of the elections and what holds in store for u. S. Taiwan relations. Congressman. I appreciate it. Good morning everybody. I want to get my water ready here. My taiwanese friends [speaking in native language] weve developed a great relationship and we appreciate your hospitality on everything we have asked and done and you have always been there with taiwan and we appreciate it. Happy new year to everybody. I want to start off just saying congratulations to taiwans president for winning reelecti reelection. Her election saturday speaks volumes on taiwans teacher and by winning with the largest margin ever recorded and beating her opponent by more than 18 points it sends a clear message where taiwan and the people of taiwan stand. They stand for liberty and freedom and democracy with no interference from any nation. The president is the modern Ronald Reagan of the asia region. Unfortunately china appears to dismiss the president s victory and her office and that is starting a dialogue with beijing on conditions that taiwan sovereignty and democracy are to be respected and chinas taiwans Affairs Office reiterated that dialogue must be predicated on the acknowledgment that taiwan is part of one china and chinas commitment to applying the one country to systems formula that is trying to be currently used to govern hong kong as a semi autonomous territory and keep in mind the protests in hong kong have brought about the devastation to the hong kong economy and world standings. It has changed the narrative of the Safe International hub for doing business, Business Travel, Business Travel and tourism have declined precipitously during the past seven months and unless things change in hong kong they will continue. It will take years for that economy to recover. China has to be wondering if that effort to take control of the judicial system and the dishonor the fiftyyear agreement that they had made between Great Britain and china was worth it. It was beijings growing influence in the legal system and the performance to handle the protests in hong kong that undoubtably energized the taiwanese people and the opposition to the proposal. China would be wise to apply the lessons they are learning and they are actively learning in hong kong to further actions against taiwan. That is, if you threaten ones freedom, democracy and sovereignty there will be a huge cost paid. Keep in mind the people of hong kong and much of the world realize that hong kong is a province of china. Thats pretty wellwritten. That was in the agreement in 1997 by Great Britain and china. By the people that made that commitment there was no question that hong kong is a province of china. Taiwan is not and has never been part of the prc or the Chinese Communist party. You guys know the history of how taiwan formed when shanghai left and went and they fought the civil war and lost and left to taiwan to develop a new nation. Its the vague policy and i blame our country and some of our leaders, policy of president nixon and carter and Henry Kissinger that allowed the one country to system cloud that confusing cloud of confusion to be maintained for too long. It is time to clear by this confusion before chinas actions escalates more tension in the region and gets to a flashpoint that we dont want to see, as they did in hong kong with the now infamous and misguided extradition law before it is too late. This is something no one wants. We seen enough conflict in this world it i will be 65 in april and ive seen enough conflict. This is something we should Work Together to diplomacy so that nations can prosper and of nations prosper their people prosper and people prosper we are safer. China has accused president tsai ingwen of stealing the victory with populist policies, smears against political rivals and fear mongering against china. Theyve also contributed the results of foreign interference, in particular the United States. This is so false. Its their action. We got singled out along with senator rubio and Chuck Schumer and nancy pelosi and myself as the ones that were causing the dissent in hong kong. The blame for that false trickery on beijing with the extradition law that they pushed through. We have written about this and i meant to bring pictures that i dont have and the people of hong kong have experienced freedom and liberty. They have had that for over 70 years. Unfortunately, the people from china of the communist party and president xi, the bureau and the pla which i have coined the cc pc, chinese, and his party complex they have never experienced freedom and liberty for it when you to take that away from somebody it is a force of nature that says no, we will not be suppressed. Again, president tsai ingwen said she is willing to have dialogue with china if there is respect for taiwan sovereignty and democracy and that is all they are asking for it president site is also wise to pin it to the south for Economic Diversification and that is what i want to talk about it where do we go from here connect the people of taiwan has spoken distinctly, clearly that they want to have their sovereignty selfgovernance and so president tsai ingwen to prove it to the south and to increase diplomatic relations with all countries and diversification and investments with other countries so that they are not solely dependent on china. We, countries in the free world, should increase taiwans world acceptance in the form of diplomatic acceptance and reentry into the world organizations like the World Health Assembly and the un but we are one of the first i know in our congress when beijing forced taiwan out of the wha, World Health Assembly, said they could not be read presented there independently. We said this is not right. Taiwan has contributed so much to the world of health with the sars epidemic and they will continue to do that and these are things they know no borders but when you get into epidemiology and diseases they know no borders but we want all hands on deck and for one country to say you cant participate is wrong. One cannot anticipate or believe president xi will change his policies. For him to do so would be admitting a mistake and in china president xi never makes a mistake and he cant afford to. That would show weakness and he cant afford to as i said, especially in lieu of the election within a couple of years. Yet president xi and the cc pc, chinese, and his party complex would be wise to except taiwans willingness to understand this, except the willingness of the status quo. Respect their sovereignty. China has nothing to gain by trying to unify taiwan to the mainland however, they have much to lose. It will force an International Backlash with countries and companies wanting to divest from china. I see that so clearly and you see that in hong kong. I got businesses that say we are in hong kong or thinking about expanding but we are not now. That is for an area the people agree is a province of china. It will force an International Backlash, like i said, and these companies will want to divest from china. If china accepts the status quo that taiwan is a sovereign and selfgoverning democracy they, taiwan and the world, will all benefit. President xi and china would gain much respect to except president tsai offer and leave them alone. With that, i will conclude my remarks. I appreciate you all letting me come by and talk. I feel very strongly about this and i know as we talk to people from around the world we got our manufacturers looking to do the abc model and that is manufactured anywhere but china because of the regression and the lack of following the rule of law this is something that will continue until china chooses to change their tactics. We cant force china to do anything. I dont want to. But i think we, as democracies around the world, we can have actions change by the way we choose to do business and who we choose to do business. I want to congratulate president tsai for winning a resounding election. We look forward to her leadership and look forward to working with the ambassador and i thank you all for letting me come by and participates. [applause] do you have time for one or two questions connect greats. Down in front. We will get you a microphone. Good morning congressman. After this election we are saying that the Chinese Foreign ministry sending a strong message urging the World Community to adhere to the one china principle but do you see after i want people sending a message to the world that they want to have a democratic side of the world and do you see the International Community starting to open up with after secretary pompeo sending his message congratulatory message and do you see some more countries opening up to be more openly supporting taiwan . I think we will see that. I truly believe that. If you look at hong kong its a province of pushing 8 Million People and 25 of those people are coming out and the removal of freedom and liberty. I have a set of pictures i did not bring what i can describe them to you. I have a blade of grass and an asphalt road with fiber to ask you which one was stronger you could look at it. Asphalt is hard and can crush the grass but when you see grass growing and pushing through asphalt which is more powerful . What that represents is freedom and liberty that you cant suppress that. Thats an innate ability or trait that all humans have that they want to be free and china does not have enough people or money to suppress freedom and so i thank you will see countries and companies further expand, is my prediction in the future, the taiwan and china smart they would accept and respect the offer of president tsai, shes not looking for independence but she wants to be left alone as her people do. They would be well served if they did that. China has already benefited so much from type what taiwan, as the world house, why would he want to rock the vote connect using what happened in icon when those numbers come out you will see a huge drop in their productivities of gdp and i think other countries will recognize that. Other questions . Congressman, you argue that its time to recognize taiwan as a country and will you push u. S. To wreck a nice time on or dual recognition, both china and taiwan . We have. We continue to do that. If you go back to the foundation of shanghai when they fought the war and he was the ruler of china and after world war ii. Then they had a conflict with the communist and he lost and they brought the kmt, to taiwan and form their own nation but since that time they got their own flag, own economy, own form of government and no National Anthem and all military and economic powerhouse. There are 11th trade partner. If china was smart they would not cause disruption where they cant win. Yet, they could overpower taiwan and they could do that but does that pay to their benefit and play to their benefit longterm or will that cause not just regional conflict but do you think other western democracies will sit still and watch democracy in that part of the region that is not causing anyone problems but benefiting entergy bidding . Will be also around and watch that been taken away . That is the question they need to ask the bureau and president xi can say face by changing policies and that will be his decision. I know where this will stand and its 40 years into the making and we had a visit by president tsai and we were honored to be able to sit with her in new york right next to her during a dinner and i thank you will see that happen more around the world and you will see other countries, and reopen relationships with taiwan. We are at a point in the 21st century that we dont need the confirmation and we need to expand the nations and expand trade and focus on those that make us stronger. Thank you. [applause] that was terrific. Particularly good analogy. I will remember that one. Thats poignant and very applicable to your daily suburban life. I like that analogy. It gives me great pleasure and honor now to bring to the stage sammy. Stanley is taiwans representative to the United States and he can be forgiven if it seems like much longer than 40 years because i think some of us have known stanley for a long time because hes represented taiwan for some 40 years in Foreign Service and in switzerland, malaysia, hungary, many headquartered posts and in fact, other students here in washington in the past. He brings a tremendous amount of wisdom to this job instability and hes been an excellent representative herein washington for all of us who are interested in taiwan issues but with that let me invite stanley to come to the stage and offer his remarks. [applause] well, thank you very much for having me, walter. I think first of all immediately after the Election Results came official in addition to the state department warming encouragement message of congratulations there was one particular gentleman, secretary mike pompeo and he tweeted i quote, the United States congratulates doctor tsai on her reelection in taiwans election. Taiwan once again demonstrates the strength of the robust democratic system. Thank you, president tsai for your leadership in developing a strong u. S. Partnership. We thank him, secretary pompeo, and all taiwans robust democratic system and president tsai leadership in developing the u. S. Partnership. We cannot agree with him more. And here congressman yoho, id like to take this opportunity to thank you very much for more gracious and powerful support. This is brought me back to marcs stage, the Heritage Foundation, congressman yoho joined senator of colorado and shared by in the videoconference with president tsai when she was transitioning through honolulu, hawaii and i was sitting beside her and the conversation was so lively, so enjoyable, so inspiring and stimulating. Again, six month ago july 2019 congressman yoho would travel from washington to new york and beat the crazy traffic in midtown manhattan and met with her in the big apple and also attended on gala dinner where she received a major gift from the National Endowment of democracy and Freedom House for her outstanding leadership in defending taiwans sovereignty and democracy. Political freedom, Civil Liberties and human rights. Just to remind you because of all this Great American organization, and ngos, what they have been doing in the writings of them and doing National Endowment, Freedom House and couple of others being blacklisted by china and just yesterday mr. Of the Human Rights Watch was denied entry in hong kong again because of what this organization has been doing something right. So, this is a very important issue here and we always believe that any proud country of the United States, taiwan, big or small is like any proud individual, men and woman in this room. If you dont stand for something you will fall for anything and this is what the january 11 election in taiwan was all about, and equal this is what the robust u. S. Taiwan relations are about. It is about celebration of victory of democracy in action and a triumph of a vibrant and Civil Society and raising freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, market economy, fair and free trade to the rule of law and abiding respect for human rights and Human Dignity trade Regional Peace and stability and those are our shared core values and beliefs in our common interests by all means. I asked the congressman yoho as he righted rightly pointed out democracy may be intercession in ordering a retreat but given the extremely precarious situation in hong kong and given the muslim gulags and underground christians what they have to go through in china the 23 million men and women in taiwan stay the course. They are at the forefront of pushing back day in, day out of this intimidation, infiltration, bullying and nonsense from 800pound colossus, distant cousin across the street however in hiding the postelection speech she kept her calm, her cool, her usual non provocative, nonconfrontational approach quoting a resumption of an exchange between two sides of the [inaudible] based on the printable of peace, parity, democracy and the dialogue with no collusion and no political precondition so on january 11 taiwan citizens have their voice and have their choice clearly made and their voice unequivocally hard for a transparent and peaceful process and once again prove that democracy works and works wellin taiwan in such a chinese speaking taiwan. It is absolutely taiwans biggest asset and strength and this brings me back to one of my favorite old sayings that if you want to go west, go longer if you want to go far, go together. No, we never take democracy or taiwans democratic Success Story but it is also about this overwhelming bipartisan support and unwavering commitments of the American People and the u. S. Congress and government and each one of you in this room under numerous others is a Firm Believer that taiwan could become a democracy as it is today and remain a vital partn partner. Rest assured that taiwan will continue to join the u. S. And all likeminded countries in protecting, pursuing the core values, beliefs and common interests, yes, taiwan can help. We are always happy to help. Thank you very much. [applause] with that would like to invite the executive director to the stage and his panel. Russell has assembled a Representative Panel of some of the most authoritative opinion on u. S. Taiwan relations imaginable perhaps from 2049 and a csis and George Washington university all longtime experts in their field. With this i turn it over to russell and he will guide us through the conversation on taiwan trade thank you. Okay. Good morning everyone. My name is russell and im the executive executor of the global taiwan entity and on behalf of gti i want to thank congress when ted yoho, ambassador stanley for those exceptional clear and inspirational remarks and i think they help you set the stage for the discussion we are about to have. In seven. Significant margins of 18. 5 or 2. 65 million votes. But people in the loony liberal democracy in the chinese speaking world have handed her and her Democratic Party another four years as the president and majority control of the legislative. The 2020 general elections are significant but while the victory is resounding, it has been far from smooth and guaranteed. So much defeat of the party in the november 2018 elections, interpreted as the referendum on her personally and dealing with unprecedented primary for the incumbent president she emerged as a favored candidate t favorin the 2020 president ial election and succeeded. The focus today will be on the latter but let me point out the factors i think we can get into in more detail. Third, the turnout of the views. They are not i have not seen the results yet, but given the high turnout rate we have an allstar cast of analysts and strategic thinkers who analyze what those mean in terms of cross regulations and also the responses. To my immediate left we have the Senior Adviser for asia and the director of the project at csi s. Where she works on issues related t to the securities and focus on Chinese Foreign and security policy. Prior to joining csi s. , she was also the consultant for various u. S. Government offices including the department of defense as well as the professor of international affairs. Published 22 books over 300 articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary affairs. I challenge anyone in the room who pays attention to the asia and is a and in the u. S. Government. Last but not least, we have said ththedebate co secretary for te institute and the policy institutes and the force of strategic Defense Industries and military political leadership. Mark has served in a variety of military and the private sector positions including serving 20 years in the u. S. Air force where he worked on intelligence planning and policy. Also he served as the infantry director for china in the office of secretary. Thank you all we have an incredible lineup of speakers each assigned to the specific topics and threads and for the moderated discussion as well as audience q a. I would like his first start off to address the issue of their reactions and implications. Thank you, russell and walter for inviting me to participate in a panel today. Very timely obviously. Everybody is very much interested in the implications, so thereve been several authoritative reactions and the one i paid close attention to is the one out of the Affairs Office and if you read into and find that there are references to all of the right phrases when it talks about the relations on kind of principle 1992 consensus operation to Taiwan Independence there is one phrase think is particularly important and that is as the spokesperson said that Development Across the relations is the right path to promote the ties and common development. This is in fact a policy that is inherited into the other aggressive policies china has pursued ove all over the world t just against taiwan. This policy is one they had here, the tactics but the question of course is a placeholder or is this going to be the policy that we see Going Forward. Very i think probably most of us would agree in a much different direction and lets remember for the first time january 2 last year included in his statement that we saw in the 40th anniversary that that is the is an option but i think that china will conclude is that its not convenient to draw the judgment of this inquiry dont want to spend my going into great detail in the results of id want to hand over a couple of points i think china is going to Pay Attention to. This is the second horse that they have put forth a candidate that wasnt very competitive. I is as much a kid and so im going to list the negatives for can they band ata and ineffectie candidate you of is part. That is would have to supports the people are going t were goie questioning me think whether a party they can either look at Going Forward. What is so mentioned the views that i think this is a is a rematch against. But is that oh so the negative side of the ledger so all of our concerns and we shouldnt let down the garde their guard and e complacent Going Forward nevertheless the political operations as active as they were appeared to have not had much success. And one is of course the candidate won more votes than last time you got more votes and if we look at the party vote in the legislative un vote, they got about the same and they got about 13 seats from their party so that is essentially about 33 of the vote. So, what this tells us is that this was people didnt trust them to defend the sovereignty, that they necessarily increasing and this is what the chinese fear is that there will be a growing support. The big story is the emergence of more third parties. Last time it was a new power party and now it is along with colby who was their qb has brought rejected. By their people of taiwan, and so i think that is worth keeping in mind. A few of their positives just to kick off his i think that despite their concerns about taiwan that they will conclude their ultimately and she has brought a push for independence, they fear that she will particularly in class their election they believe that the Vice President be a potential conflict for more runs like their government. But at their day, i think they know taiwan has brought going to take their same kind of an interest moves. I dont think they our that worried about their International Community abandoning one china and their reasons of course for the most important reason for their confidence Going Forward involving military capabilities so there will be voices in china and there already our. Hes to be their deputy in their taiwan Affairs Office. Hes essentially staying that fires veggies have failed. We should adopt a bargain. I think this is not going to prevail as their policy. I think you have a lot on the mic. Their slowing economy, one for the protest in hong kong. Tension on going with their United States as well. So i think it into will continue tuesday that unification it inevitable. Taiwan it part of china. But i dont think that he it going to fundamentally find that this it their time to conclude that chinese need have a completely new approach. We go back to their january 2nd speech which i think it important to continue to study. Although he it pushing to make progress on unification with taiwan. I personally dont sense that he it urgent about this. I believe he has brought set a deadline of 2049. As my friends and try tuesday he will be alive then anyway. [laughter]. I continue to believe that there it no hard deadlines that he has set. So think we will see their china has brought going to drop its preconditions for cost predict it will continue to learn taiwan and United States not to take provocative moves to challenge chinese sovereignty. Their chinese of course our not going to take watch she said in his victory speech at face value but they will Pay Attention i think it important to note that we talked about our commitment to peace and staple prostate relations, she said we have maintained non provocative non adventurous attitude that has prevented serious consequences for breaking out in their taiwan strait. There our some of people in china who study taiwan who agree with that. They may not be able to do this or say so publicly. I actually think that they understand that she has brought for example, their jeweled referendum that plies to independence as they have. Theyre not going to accept preconditions. Preconditions their dialogue she talked about. For example in accepting their existence of both sides. Im quite confident that china it going to accept their existence of their republic of china. But i personally think that the chinese our unlikely to conclude that this is their time to to really use military of course and their risks our high. Its not just a matter of season. Taiwan, its a matter of holding it. It it matter of winning over their people of taiwan. They could face a certain state. But to many people talk about them publicly. Happened in hong kong, well just have to ask their question to their people and do their people taiwan height for their own sovereignty. I personally believe that these essays they continue to talk about china having an important period of strategic opportunity. And i believe that this includes his assessment that peaceful Development Across street relations, their right strategy and their peaceful unification has brought unachievable. That said, they will continue of course their building up of their military capabilities. So their time comes that the leadership decides to support file and it will be prepared. But i would argue that having a decisive military exit advantage it their only factor that they will consider in making such a decision. Thank you. Thanks much. Anyway friend didnt take those ways. But i think take away a lot of that in terms of watch type a can take away from this and watch washington can take away from their Election Results. In beijing their likely reactions. Since their charge of abating will react with in review of his simulations in their past four years. I would like to ask doctor senter, to give us a review of u. S. Relations and how we got our down. We may be going. For years. Thanks very much. Thank you for sponsors. A very happy to be there. I belong perspective on this issue of it in some of my focus it really watch this megxit for the improvement. Their remarkable and permit this been taking place in their u. S. Approach towards a timeline. And in recent years. So this is an element of uncertainty. Their result of their taiwan election, where an element of uncertainty. And watch i see of course it that rapid continuity now in taiwan, and they were poor i think this continue, this improvement will continue. I dont see this element causing difficulty in my assessment. Watch i would like to do in their remarks that i have, upon focus on this issue watch this megxit for the continuation of their positive trajectory in their u. S. Taiwan relations. Watch i have to do personal it talk about their manifestations of those improved relations. And look at their causes of it. See of their elections has changed that and wondering for this evaluation, and then look at more elements of uncertainty. Tongue going to do that in just a few minutes. It shouldnt take is it too long. Their manifestation of this it something that is not highprofile. That is good. You will see that there our benefits for that. Yet its quite remarkable and frankly speaking ladies and gentlemen, ive been looking at u. S. Taiwan relations since before their taiwan relations act. And ive never seen. Like this. This is their most positive. That i have seen in their relationship, their arm sales relationship, this just goes right through. These extraordinary dogmatic statements that mr. Pompeo news remarks were referred to. That never happened before. Their state department in past years has always been their gatekeeper, their one to make sure that other parts of their government to do more things in taiwan. Where it, their state department it really in their forefront pushing new rhetoric new support publicly associating themselves more and more with a timeline as mr. Pompeo did in their reaction to their election. He was support covers their new indo specific indo pacific strategy. They our working with taiwan together in their pacific islands. Been having forms in their united nations, this is something that wasnt done for a long time and now it it again. And we have other statements on their trade area in their u. S. Government supporting taiwan, and its investment abroad and working in conjunction want to do their sorts of things. Watch it their cause for the causes of this kind of action on their part of their United States. I think there our several that i would. To. There our four. Beijings pepper pressures. They try to change their status quo. In their United States it rated in course of so this is something that obviously gives u. S. Policies attended. And theres taiwan news location. Taiwan it located in a critical area. Dealing with their indo pacific strategy. If you put in their United States government has is it too much more competitive and dive boat relationship, really their rivalry with china in many respects. There location bloomsbury largeness indo pacific area. In their approach. In earlier speakers have talked a lot about, this is very important for its own fink. But its also important if you see yourself as many of their United States now government and elsewhere now do, you are in with china. Their values in their forum of law and their sort of thing and world affairs. And taiwan looms much larger and much more important because of that. Then of course you have their idea that a relationship with taiwan can serve a sneak way of imposing costs on china. In their american officials who feel that way. So these four drivers of their relationship, i think remain quite strong. Theyve gotten stronger over their last several years and then impact that we have a much more active relationship with their title i. There our breaks. This is i think watch it their most remarkable change in american policy. Their things that breaks in their past, dont matter as much as they used to. In their first one it that you dont want trouble with china. Hell want to move forward with time on these might have trouble with china. Well weve had to that yourself their list of fronts beijing in one area or another. So clearly that is not that important in american policy making at this time. Their idea that beijing will be upset about their sorts of things. I think thats less important than it was a on their obama government. On previous government that were very thin news concerns with their one china policy. I dont think this government it nearly as fast about that. For the reasons that there it an acute rivalry with china. Their signal. It that the United States to have troubled in their region. And that the improved relations with taiwan wouldbe viewed negatively in their region. In east asia and among their partners and allies. This is it too i think has been overtaken by events because their u. S. Has done all of these things in their region that our so detrimental to beijing. And so this is just another element. So their failures of this seems to me it less an american calculating of this policy towards someone. In their third element here it that past record with their government in particular it that taiwan used their support from their United States. It was he was doing and thinking to do it. For political advantages of themselves. And with their move in areas that were very irresponsible and provocative, should be beijing a sneak result breaks in their morning here it dont improve your relations with taiwan because they will take advantage of this. Will they our their ones used after cleanup. These have to clean up after them. They try to reassure people she it very experienced at this issue. I personally have tremendous confidence that she knows how to manage these kinds of issues. Obviously well see their need for explaining it for domestic reasons and taiwan. But there it their fourth reason. Their fourth break and that is still there. Its very important. As beijing. Beijing it very powerful. Money has given us a perspective on this issue which i think it an excellent perspective. Staying that will be controlled but they have great power. They can do also mean things that they want to do. So that is still a big break and for moving in their relationship. It has to be done carefully. When i have seen over their past several years, it that its pretty careful. There is a consensus between their people in their congress that deal with taiwan and their Administration Officials seem to be a contentious, i think its pretty clear that there it let the Forward Movement it justified and we should move stepbystep in this regard. I havent seen a change in their stated one china policy. Their u. S. Has a one china policy. If you look at their u. S. History relationships with taiwan, after their normalization with beijing, its been interpreted in different ways by different governments. Most governments have been pretty strict in interpreting their one china policy. Several have it. I think were in their face where we our not being so well we our being much more flexible on their u. S. Side than we used to be. Thats when i look at their drivers, and i look at breaks, i say well, i think their Forward Movement it in improving relations and doing these various things, economic issues, when make it to the mic of an fda as walter talked about. On diplomatic issues and so forth, that the relationship can get ever stronger Going Forward. I think it will remain and i hope it does, within their confines of their american one china policy which it on their chinese one china policy or principle. It can be defined fairly broadly and with i think good results for the United States and for taiwan. It looks pretty good. We have unsourced things. In one was their selection. Will we get elected in thailand taiwan, a leader that was like their other guy. They wanted to move in a different direction on issues that our important in their United States. And there, i think we couldve had it very much in uncertainty. We dont have that uncertainty anymore. So Going Forward, pretty confident that this is their way direction to go. We still have three other uncertainties. One it president trump. He it unpredictable. He it very unpredictable. He might make a deal with china. He might, and might involve seriously explaining their relationship with taiwan and thats something that china would want. This is something we have to think about and then their other part it that we our going to have an election in this country it their end of this year. And there our people and democratic parties, who work with Hillary Clinton and others, who dont want to have that strict interpretation of their one china policy. Jake sullivan, was quoted during their too thousand and 16 campaign, senior officer in their clinton campaign, said there will be no change in our taiwan policy. People like jake, our still around. They can be their Democratic Party and forth weight Going Forward in too thousand and 20. So we need to watch this sort of thing to see if it will do to change. My. It that both donald trump, believe it or not and their Democratic Party if they choose to move in this direction, our constrained because of their change in american policy towards china. I think their change is the harder approach to and a tougher approach particularly towards a just trust beijing. A sneak fundamental sense here their beijing has tricked their United States. His distressful and displaced us. This kind of fence installed in their congress, found in their administration and so if you make deals with beijing, you want to sacrifice taiwan a sneak result of this we do dont know really watch you are going do you get with you deal. So i think their concert it going to be pretty serious. It will be serious on mr. , if he chooses to go in this direction. And a future democratic president if they choosing to go in this direction. Accommodating beijing and restricting their relationships with taiwan a sneak result. But then you have their third uncertainty that is unresolved and that is beijing itself. And here i just. Out their baby bonnet migrate and mark my degree, im not sure, it it that yes, i certainly feel their same way their money did curtis and laid out as far as where she should go. Theres not a lot of experts that dont fill that window. Theres a lot of publicity now talking about their dangers of this situation. And it comes from their council. There our organizations our proposing their sort of thing. Analysts and various other families our talking about this dive boat thing. Their danger of their situation. We have to be cognizant of that. I we right in thinking that it it going to be okay that their status of their general approach of basing will continue. I personally agree with that. I dont have a persuasive argument that binds us. My basic argument it this. Their chinese have been confronted over their past too and half years by one front from their United States after another. She beijing it taking their megxit of dealing with donald trump and his friends. There our ulcers of issues. Watch indeed had they done. They try to avoid confrontation with their United States. They still do it. So they have their strawman image but in practice and when you are dealing with their United States, you dont see that kind of confrontation. So say to myself, will if their u. S. Manages its relationships with time on caroling i can see Forward Movement where you want to confront their United States on this issue. Maybe they forgot them. I was up there. Thank you predicts them i thank you so much that was a perfect. Really highlights their methodical analysis their question one could loophole for perhaps you their conclusion it hard to argue with their analysis. In their methodology that you played in their drivers of risk and uncertainties down their various variables. And i would like to turn it over to and more stokes from having big discussions today. Their really looking at their history of u. S. Approaches. Their taiwan policy and where we would be going in their future. Soon i think you very much russell. Appreciation also to alter and their Heritage Foundation also to you in their audience was, today. Special in a monday morning. I would also like just for a second to express condolences to their families of their republic of China Armed Forces officers and airmen who also lives. This month in a tragic helicopter crash. He made their sacrifice for their own country. Their determinate that was held today. They were acknowledging these sacrifices. And certainly warranted. Theres been a lot of discussion on their outcomes of their election. Predate their election and just equally they wouldve won their presidency or their majority. With their election behind us now, i think u. S. Perspective, bedtime really to do a fundamental policy towards taiwan. For a prostrate relations. When, i mean, it that its something this 1993, 1994, it looks for frivolous issues. But its really something that goes to some of their fundamental policies that is endured at least since 19799. If not even earlier. Hell no back in tracing their policy. In my view there our a few good reasons to their fundamentals. It starts with, statement of trajectory. In mind, it it separate from their policy approach but this taiwan on its current constitution exists in a sovereign state. This is sort of removing myself from their policy perspective it just looked up their street trajectory. Certainly their majority, they would certainly agree. I think this is something that people on both sides of their political trump it in their mainstream and both sides, he would agree on this as well. That formulation with weight actually comes from their ministration. Their glassware years and it officials from their front ministration has made some formulations in one forum or another. Three reasons why their policies may be worded. To check reality. When their u. S. Policies based on a narrative, however useful of a narrative it may be. Theres plenty of room for fundamentalist understanding. This could lead to conflict on their road. That is one reason why in terms of bring u. S. Policy line with trajectory reality but of course also status quo is the of their term. Status quo it their existence of too legitimate governments on both sides. An authoritative regime, in my view, it has involved into a vibrant liberal democracy. On their other side you have something against their republic of china. Taiwan actually has some in some ways if you believe in their concept. Some of this and why, second reason i think a fundamental review may be warranted it that if we our sincere about creating their conditions, not get involved in their middle but created conditions for some sort of reinvigorated dialogue on both sides. U. S. Should assume their obligation police try to do that by balancing both sides. By evening their playing fields. None terms of international political. It it something that can be done for dc statements that come out. You be able to give them more confidence to engage same as i got and thirdly terms of fundamental u. S. Principles. In our interest in their principles in terms of liberal democracies. If youve you are one china policy, you only have normal onesided not their other, and we give legitimacy to their poc everyday. Their biggest victory ever, and continuing their legitimacy was achieved probably with their signing of their 19799 document. It was completely reviewed their recognition for the ioc and exchange that turned that over. It was fine then but today we really have to have you look at this. In terms in their u. S. Policy options in their future, lets not quibble about whether or not these our correct. There our four schools policy. With their first it accommodation. Particularly moving this policy more towards beijings formulation of one china principle. This may have had some five or ten years ago, their sense of growing support here in their dc area. I think now its become significantly marginalized. Thanks a large part to their actions in their home. As well as policies and flexible policy source i want. And their Second School of thought it by far their dominant one. And perhaps rightly so this status quo. For me that. I mean, in terms of this relations. In that status quo for horses u. S. Policy guided by relationships. And tempered by their definition of their statement of policy made to take your time. He has been reconfirmed by successful demonstrations. Status quo and u. S. Policy generally mean sort of maintaining general pest we have done for quite a while. Their third school of thought. Breaking out in their u. S. One china policy and recognition in terms of short order of taiwan. Taiwan in terms of using their term and completely getting out of their u. S. One china one policy. He takes various forms but this certainly has long had swaying in their u. S. To some degree or another. Fourth school of thought it when for one that goes by many names. It was actually in some ways a dominant line of thinking and late 1950s or 1960s, perhaps all of their week to 19797. It was by different names. U. S. One china. It could be referred to a sneak soft balancing first with this sort of fourth option it one doesnt necessarily question but still does more to move towards a more formal staple relationship with time. Staying free and clear of their issue. Focusing more and balancing legitimacy. Legitimacy or sovereignty. So these our their four schools of thought. So whether or not my view, that could be a guide in u. S. Policy. Watch if things to throw out there at their last minute. In my view it consideration should be given for a joy statement between their senior u. S. Policymakers and their longtime one. One can use that word joy communique. They goes back to 1979 too. Theoretically, i was eight u. S. China had one china policy. They did not violate their one china policy. Then we recognize their ioc. That happened in 1979 formally. A joy statement between their too sides, we have a joy statement or a joy communique with any government around their world. Im not aware it a lot of examples but a joy statement allows you to align policies to be able to come up with a fundamental interest and make it public so you can communicate to your own constituencies within united and on taiwan so that is one so never do, considering dual heading of chairman of aig. As either assistant several very or undersecretary loophole. Dual heading, their website and their individual wouldbe a person. It wouldbe in my view consistent with one china policy. This i want businesses. Their signs, when their director a approved position. This just another consideration. Other things in terms of looking at their fundamental structure, in terms of their different forms they go on. [inaudible conversation] on their security side, we have their talks, there our other things important in their way that they our other committees were formed. We did make their ait chairperson, dual headed singer assistant secretary undersecretary, maybe consider modeling their Bilateral Committee for some side of their house and it him we had with making my little mechanism of people to people Talk Straight to it it kind of interesting because that was built for something to happen in taiwan. Their culture exchange. We already have it going on to one sort of forum. It that to their attention it deserves. Along these lines our other key issues in terms of u. S. Interest but i was. Supply chain security, incorporation. I address their details as need it. At their Civil Society loophole, and my view, makes a lot of sense in my view to establish and populate and energize National Committee on u. S. Taiwan relations. Then again modeled part after their National Committee would u. S. China relations i believe it was established in 1965. As of their concept. And then finally, in my view, there should be an expansion Civil Society loophole, dialogue. Theres plenty of that going. Between u. S. And taiwan and chip in, quite a few to be at least three to half of their dozen, but start and other potential partners. Buildings wouldbe good. They have elections coming up. In another year and half or too, Election Integrity can be very important. And in society loophole there will be a lot to learn. We have things going on with chip in and taiwan in their United States. Thank you very much. As always, very forwardlooking. A lot of ideas that we can continue certainly discuss in their q a. We have about 12 minutes. This can be used for q a. Mike going around to keep your hand up. I would like to exercise their moderator news prerogative thi this. To key out a couple of questions before we get to their audience q a. Want to pick up on something their money mentioned. Do you basically provide an likely know their reaction that they see with him. Watch you think. Bullet ten from beijing to fundamentally be assessed for policy. It. I think we struggled with this. It would get this question all their time. From beijing to really understand their situation and perhaps act. Watch they didnt talk about it their linkage between this issue of domestic politics in beijing. I think there is a perception that this issue it related to legitimacy. Legitimacy of their party. And possibly personally. I think that is fundamentally watch interests. They can not be a fundamental policy towards taiwan in a more positive direction as long as there it that i believe it framework in beijing situation that the leader of their party it very vulnerable issue and saw our from playing. I would go so far as tuesday we really need to have radical faith in their political system. If you will. Many people argue that even if there was more prissy in china that there might still be worded since their ownership towards taiwan might not necessarily lead to more tolerance. Selfdetermination it even paid . It that of i am hesitant stick. We think in terms of their idea or watch will make budging be nice for someone. [laughter]. I am more worried about their opposite. I think that is much more likely than watch you are asking for. I think you can look at it that way. Watch did you want that money, when bring this up in their q a it watch it their future. It there a need for responsible Opposition Party in taiwan and after having passed their selection by significant margin, we face it watch happened than their party in their future. Thing is the very important question and as i said they did well their party and why they actually increased overall. I think their real question it whether their party itself performs or whether some of these older generation people move hillside. And to make way for the younger generation, whether they try to redefine themselves as an indigenous party, there our younger people i talked to their campaign would like to be taiwan. Not that china one. Then they be rich is it too far in their immediate future. They have to figure out their methods and their policies. And of course fundamentally have to examine whether policies our going to be Going Forward towards beijing. They said they going to to 1990 too consensus. Our they going to come up with new policy. If they did not revise their policy Going Forward, then i doubt that they will be able to win support. Their most important thing it party reform and generational change. With that i will open at up for the audience q a. Keep your hands up. Make sure to state your name and your affiliation and please try to keep your comments or questions brief. In their middle forget. Bonnie you mentioned their predictive beijing it more likely to go for more tougher direction. Does that mean were going to see a continuation of tactics like diplomatic allies towards taiwan. Or like new tactics. They dont really work in chinas favor. Thank you for the question. And giving me to an opportunity to elaborate on this. I probably didnt stress enough on this that i do think their chinese our going to have pressure in taiwan. They have an evergrowing toolbox it one of their order and global times have mentioned a big policy toolbox and think that they can do. Placing a great deal in their military and diplomatic areas. Taiwan was 15 diplomatic out remitting. I would not be surprised if they continue to go after those and maybe even one in near term. Another time winds foreign minister as we speak it traveling to guatemala. And perhaps, i dont know this for a fact but i wonder if this reflects certain things that they will move very quickly to still another one of taiwans partners. I think it will continue to do that. Theres much more they can do in their military room. But one of their notable things it in addition to playing operated their navy around taiwan to their march 31st crossing their street. I look to their economic spew. Beijing has not done very much to harm taiwans economy to be really their exception of having torsos. Taiwan has shown an ability to attract tourists from other countries. China believes that poor Economic Performance will help prevent them from staying in power Going Forward, there our other things they can do to try to damage time on their economy. That also goes to their issue of altered talked about earlier how strongly when they oppose a u. S. Taiwan fda. We have not seen taiwan find any new trade agreement support since joe was in power. Thank you good morning. Their anti class their past earlier in january. Share your offering observations on what can impact occurred to taiwans politics. Especially in what he calls additional fractures. In late impact chinese parties operations in taiwan. Their anti act for enforcement. Does anyone want to take their question. I would like to know you had tuesday on this. I think that went out getting into their substance of their legislation some. I havent, i think there our in terms of their opposition of their party that legislation would target such as exchanges that it considers to be legitimate exchanges. However, dubious activities may be, i think their key will be enforcement. If any legislation and so it appears that leaves from public reporting that the legislation that will at least provide more enforcement mechanisms. In center interns my facing fines and even imprisonment. This will be in violations of that act. And so i think again, their key will be enforcement and that will determine how effective their legislation wouldbe. I name it peter. Analyst former diplomat. Too short questions. It it really necessary for lower loophole Foreign Service officers to resign from their Foreign Service where they get posted to taiwan. And second of all, very concerned about their fact that taiwan represents a gap in Network Systems. It there a way at all that we could integrate taiwans radars with our radars and defense radars. It there anyway we can track from their islands with a continuous sicu stick profile rather than this interruption thats represented by taiwan. Underwater question, im sure that and more will have some views. These our really more than technical questions. There questions of political will clearly if we wanted to Network Systems and their pantry radar in and with other missiledefense capabilities, we could do that. These our always i think, political question. On your first question, theres a longstanding set of things that the United States president a sneak matter of practice. But about things that were written into law. Their question of those it what Foreign Service offers and they have to do fridge Time Military officers and retire temporarily. No longer do. Their other officials from taiwan and they our really still unable to go on a regular basis into their state department. These our all things that could be easily changed. So if it simply a matter of practice. Theyre not a matter of law. And i think that there is a strong argument to be made for why they should no longer be adhered to. These our things that hamper our ability to implement our policies and do what it necessary for american interests. So there is a long of things that our in that category so it share your views in that. I really funny. Their restrictions that we have our selfimposed. And they include in their past, i think theres been a change in forcing their Service Officers to resign or certainly, righting correct me if im wrong. For example, used to be restrictions on Duty Officers in 18. That certainly has changed. There our still plenty of restrictions that our there. In these our imposed based upon some arbitrary sense of definition of what it official. In my view, we say it it beneficial even if we had a seniorlevel visit. Secretary business in taiwan. We say it an official georgia it it unofficial. I would. That out. Or if we had a Foreign Affairs administered. If we say it unofficial, it it unofficial. Their Network Systems that goes back to their same thing. Their restrictions our and how you define their relationships. Would having a shared operational picture on radar picture, would that be considered an official relationship. I dont think so. You can finagle, and massage it anyway you like. Same thing for the undersea picture. Something in general. There also something to do. I would offer one must, here. In their near term, i think there should be a lot more emphasis right now on their issue of readiness. In their unlikely chance that there is a use of of course, there should really be doing a close look about his ability to respond to of course. People generally focus on being conservatives to some. We should really be looking at our readiness to respond. And also working with taiwan twin has their readiness. So this initiative really want significant attention as just over the next six months. With that, we actually did run out of time. But we do have a believe lunch outside and please feel free to engage with their speakers