This discussion was held by videoconference. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening depending on where you are. Thank you for joining us. Im Vice President of the Global Economy and Development Programs at brookings Global Economy. Disrupting billions of life and jeopardizing progress. The Global Economic process which relates to todays conversation from a five of present and global gdp in 2020. This is the cheapest global recession since world war ii. Its a report defined by fundamental drivers of longterm growth including investment which would slow capital formation. Beyond the headline Economic Growth number, the pandemic is having a proportionate effect lower Income Countries in a way the economy isd dominated most limited ability to adjust to covid related measures such as confinement. Similarly, most vulnerable population in the economy are more exposed. The pandemic is likely to leave a legacy of water inequality between and within countries. Disruptive of the pandemic for the lives in the economy around the world, it is uncertainty as to whether we have seen the worst case scenario. Notably, the epicenter of the pandemic appears to have gone to the globalth south with combatig the virus is more limited. Elevated debt levels in countries and the inability of countries to use their own decurrencies. Letting the pandemic means the global system remains. The virus will remain a threat for the Global Economy and eradicated in every country. We are seeing a resurgence of cases in some countries, notably the United States, policy makers and meanwhile, encouraging progress in timing for the discovery for a vaccine remains uncertain. This raises questions and my friend, how sensitive is the Economic Outlook for next year . Such as tourism. What do we make of the apparent disconnect between main street and wall street with stock market indexes have recovered much of their losses despite highly uncertain economic environment. Finally, are there any silver finally in the Silver Lining word we see a stronger economy . How should we make it our priority when seizing the opportunity to revive the sluggish School Productivity which has been threatening the majorie economy since the Global Financial crisis. These are among the questions on our minds and we imagine what a Global Economy could look like. We are fortunate to have with us a Diverse Panel of experts who will make sense of the sol and i look forward to the conversations which will be moderated and my colleague David Wessell and our world bank colleague ayhan kose. Thank you it over to you ayhan area did thank you for organizing this distinguished panel. The Global Economy prospects because of the dash im just going to focus on three points. The first about the sharp implications of the pandemic. This is going to be the deepest and most synchronized global recession since the second world war. Emergingco markets and economies in the first recession from experience is on record. It is a somber outlook. Risks are tilted to the downside and the second term is the longterm applications of the covid19 pandemic. We have seen of the for following deep recessions with lasting in the context of the pandemic we are expecting potential output and bigger partake to video for the longterm. Finally policy priorities are on the agenda to discuss and they are addressing the Immediate Health crisis and urge them priorities but beyond the crisis policymakers need to look forward and undertake policy measures to lay the foundation for strong and sustained growth. And we will review this acronym emde emerging market in developing economies. By now its clear that there is a plunge in activity around the world. We are expecting Global Growth to be around 5. 2 this year. In the case of an economy contraction is going to be large but emerging markets and world economies were nearly the engines of Global Growth for an extended period of time. They will experience the first recession and they will see it contract by 2. 5 . If you look around the regions you see differences but pretty much a serious downturn is on the way. The in the case of east asiapacific they are expecting the fastest growth primarily because china had growth this year and all the Major Economies delivered positive growth by a meager 1 . Othert than that all regions wl have historic contraction. If we look at the caribbean it will see a contraction like its over the past 100 years. Growth will be around minus 7. 2 . Southern Africa Europe and central asia middle east regions a number of countries with commodity exporters will see significant declines in their growth rate. In south asia region that is an exporter will see historical contraction of 3. 2 . Next year growth welcome back but a modest recovery compared to what we had this year. This is a truly historic recession. If we go all way back to 1870 we had reasonably good data there have been 14 global recessions and each global recession you saw the local economy contracting. This will be the fourth deepest global recession since the second world war. Global recessions are important to understand here. Through all of this they are associated with so this global recession will bess the after thence 1870 Great Depression. The future of this episode is that the Global Economy will see a higher share experiencing contraction slightly more than 90 this year. This number is higher even than what we saw at the height of the Great Depression. There are risksks down the road and this is still tilted to the downside for the single most importantt risk is effective waves of pandemic. Now if you look at where we are if you take out the United States you will see that the number of daily infections is down significantly since the beginning of march. On the other hand and emerging market in the Global Economy the pandemic is in full force. N in south asia we see a significant increase in the number of infectionsct. These are the regions with limited Health Service capacity and limited capacity so we have a limited understanding of the gravity of the pandemic in these regions. Now, beyond the shortterm this pandemic will have longterm implications. There is no question there are large losses and these losses are not going to be recouped next year when the growth comes back. In fact as it happened during the 2009 global recession we are not going to go back to the same output anytime soon. These types of deep recessions will have longlasting scars and ami negative effect physical capitulation and of course productivity. Another important consequence of this pandemic is how the Global Economy will basically generate growth. It will be affected by the devastating shock we are going through. Prior to the pandemic Global Growth longterm has gone downward since the Global Financial crisis. In 2010 we had the Global Economy that wouldld generate growth of 3. 3 . That number declined below 3 in 2014 and now its at 2. 4 rate likelihood the pandemic will have a long term effect on Global Growth expectations. Now, an overwhelming response to the crisis. This response was necessary but of course sooner or later this will be in the form of much higher deficits and its going to be important for government to discuss this when the time comes and to reach sustainable levels of debt. Bt this is an important risk we need to Pay Attention to. This crisis so far is not the type of systemic financial we saw in previous episodes of the deep recession but we shouldnt deceive ourselves as we saw after the Global Financial crisis there me maybe repercussions especially for those economies. Policy priorities are clear. In the shortrun help an economy is the key. This will require helping vulnerable groups and the idea of keeping the economy afloat and intelligent way. Policies globally are also difficult and in this context we went to those economies that will open economies the poorest emerging economies though the desperate times they n are facing now. If the crisis of aids policymakers need to look forward and put in place policies for sustained longterm growth. There are a number of important points. Their size discussion about what is urgent and what is important. That urgent policy issue is in the context of the shortterm and there are critically important policyan priorities tt we think about in the aftermath of the pandemic. Its going to be difficult in growing investment transparency to attract necessary activity will be important. Second of all coordinating policies globally to address global challenges this key including those related to Public Health and providing the necessary information when these types of challenges emerge. Global trade and Financial Assistance are also experiencing debt. We need to push forward and basically trading system and financialin system necessary. Theres a small probability of emerging. In this context its going to be important to address the challenges associated with the climate change. Like lisa during the Global Financial crisis airs a question about the shape of the recovery. Many shapes have been proposed, that the shape of the e shape. The v shape is associated with covid. I think this debate is useful to simplify the trajectory. This Global Economy struggles with the pandemic. Lets make no mistake about the nature of the recovery. Its going to be a painful one and policymakers need to provide immediate comprehensive bold responses on how they are going to turn their economies around. Thank you. Thank you ayhan. Im hoping everybody can see the whole panel at this time. I am David Wessell director of the center at brookings. Im joined by my colleague eswar prasad who spends his time between brookings and cornell and joyce chang who is the chair ofwh local research at jpmorgan which you can tell from her backdrop. She hasas one employer and braha Sangafowa Coulibaly who you met at the beginning of our program the new Vice President for Global Economic development at brookings is joining us as well givenve his interest in africa project like to start with joyce and joyce your view of the World Economy matches the one that ayhan laid out and particularly what you see in emerging markets preview talk in your recent report i saw about the growth rebound a powerful bounce in emerging market but they know ayhan posner presentation made clear its a diverse set of markets latin america that differs from africa and differs in china. Have you see the world and how do you see it differently . Thank you so much david for those questions in thank you so much to the Brookings Institution for the invitation and an excellent report from ayhan. Let me start with the first question that ayhan brought up which is why is there such a disconnect attained mainstream to wall street and then ill go markets emerging discussion. The first ever say is this time around compared to the Global Financial crisis you had an immediate proactive response from all of the Central Banks and emerging market Central Banks. If you look at the size of the expansion of the Balance Sheet we i estimate it is about 20 of gdp. If you compare that to what happened during the Global Financial crisis thats about 6 of gdp. Youso extend the Balance Sheet y more than three times the Global Financial crisis predicted same time if you look at how low Interest Rates are right now we have to make that nearly 70 of global Government Debt at 50 basis points or less. You have basically zero debt for 70 of the market and thats money in the equity markets. The same time the market is court hears so you have to be careful you will have to return in volatility. We estimate 60 weaker than it was in the market that when it was prepandemic. Thats the first thing id say about the disconnect between street and wall street bbc Balance Sheet who is expanded by 3 trillion a buying spree of epic portions here. Let me just turn to the Growth Outlook in the growth forecast and we didnt agree with ayhan that this is the largest declined in years and the thirdlargest in 120 years. We have the advanced economy contracted by the 4 and an emergency we take out china because as one of the few countries growing in a positive sense. You have growth of 6 in emerging Market Countries. We do seet a rebound because te first half we had about the 16 annualized drop in gdp so when you turn everything off you are going against a rebound. This is the part of the recovery and i would say a complete recovery with respect to the level of gdp and the level of gdp at the end of the year we think will be about four Percentage Points below where it was prepandemic preview have the e shape numbers in d. C. 20 of the gdp in the second half of the year but if you look at where we are with respect to gdp, the level of gdp we are below where we were prepandemic. Its income loss in productivity loss and i think its going to be a large longlasting damage that you have another one or two months where its going to look quite good. This is going to be trickier in the Fourth Quarter because many of these incomes will be lost and what are we left with . We arert left with 13. 8 of gdp the highest in 80 years. We are looking at publicde sectr debt at 15 to 20 Percentage Points higher and we can break that down to liability and we are looking at in the emerging markets really three different scenarios for emerging markets. China has been doing better. Its in the recovery right now and taiwan is doing better so the north Asian Countries are doing better but if you take a look at latin we are looking at 9 contraction and this is where the pandemic still has not peaked yet. This is where we are seeing some of the biggest losses that will take place. Then you have the subsaharan african countries where they are in Debt Forgiveness and all these official relief measures that have been set via the g20. Hard to characterize emerging markets as one block that china is very important here. China we estimate everyone decline in chinas growth is about. 4 of local growth. This is why we look at the numbers with china and chinas recoveryd has been surprising. We are looking at it decline of trade thats been going down consistently over the last couple of years and its going to continue. Let me with a comment on the look ahead. U. S. Election plus china tensions brexit as well as the possibility of a second wave i think what you are seeing now is a stubborn first wave and possibility of a second wave and sometimes we will have a vaccine ready. The losses at the corporate level are going to be sick if it didnt despite the market rebound we have seen in the Financial Market. Profits dropped by 70 and we are at a 6 rate the highest in 10 years. We have 150 billion of that downgraded from high grade two but its a tremendous level of support coming from the Central Banks more broadly which has supported the markets and its not just developed countries in Central Banks is emerging markets pushing assets as well. We have really gone from credit to tem thats what we need to monitor Going Forward area. Fo you said the stock market has been strong despite the scary headlines of the economy in part because they are two alternatives for money and the Central Banks have made it attractive but is the market basically assuming there wont esl can wave or decline, lasting decline in globalization are ing lasting decline productivity . Is the market fully factored in for some of the risks you elaborate . And think . The market, the fd is going nowhere anytime soon but the federal banks are in it for the longhaul. This has been a real paradigm shift and i think they are zooming there wont be a lockdown like we saw in march and april and even if you have a second wave its not going to be met with that type of lockdown we are seeing we are not seeing as big of a wave as we saw a few months ago. I think what the market is looking at is 80 of the s p 500 stocks have a higher dividend or shareholder yields than treasury yield or if you have 70 of the data close to a zero yield there has been the search for yield in the equity market and we have record is you want out of the Corporate Bond market. Its 1. 6 trillion this year because corporate is trying to raise money near zero so they do have a cushion they will endure. Its a partial what we are seeing right now is insufficient condition for v shape recovery. Tanks. A eswar i want to invite you to read whenever you want but i have one question. What joyce and ayhan have documented his justav an extraordinary response by policymakers and of course there is one set of people, economists many of them we know who say thank god and this is the reason we are not to kidnap the Great Depression to point out that i hear a lot from laypeople about it seems like some kind of a perpetual motion machine. How long can we go on with trillions of dollars in debt and the fed printing enough money andd buying lawns of the treasuy and what are the risk of this policy response at this level . Certainly listening to ayhan and listening to joyce there is a great deal to be concerned about but perhaps we should be humble enough to recognize that the economy is terrible at forecasting recessions and its easier to get carried along with where the economy is right now and certainly held indicators that wein are looking at right w would suggest that there is a lot worse coming. The Financial Markets seem to be doing okay anne joyce has given us some of the reasons why that might be sown its not related to fundamentals but there are couple of promising things. Just two months ago or three months ago the chinese economy would be where it is today is joyce pointed out. That seemed to be in motion in the manufacturing and Service Sector seems to be picking up. The merging market economies picking up once again even though theres a lot to be concerned about especially among the reemerging marketco economs and even in the u. S. We are beginning to see some of the numbers beginning to come back up. Its not all doom yet eerie at the doom stories are harder to tell. Its easy to tell partly because its going on in the demand and supply component. Thets initial phase looked lika massive they were suddenly supply reductions because of the lockdown but perhaps once we got past the lockdown they could be taking care of. Certainly macroeconomic policies and monetary policies can counteract some of that and as you pointed out david having huge amounts of stimulus at practically every major economy has thrown at this problem. Its at least the worsening of demand although its enough to provide a robust economy is far from obvious yet be the biggest question in my mind is whether these policy tools will really help in terms of supply. The report clearly points out a significant concern about productivity and in fact coming into this recession we are the head very slow productivity growth coming out of the last recession sponsor the Global Financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Investment across the world was quite weak and in china which had decent investment growth much of that is come from investment by the Public Sector rather than privatesector investments. The other concern is that even though the Financial System does seem to be as ayhan pointed out this is a very important distinction in the Financial System especially the Banking System came under enormous stress. Thats not happening at this time that financial conditions are still very tight especially for the firms in terms of employment growth in productivity growth in the economy and these are the small and Medium Enterprises and especially in economies like china and the Service Sector as well. If we look at the longerterm prospects and how long this could be there are significant worries on the supply aspect. Joyce and i had both referred to the disruption that may be taking place to the Global Supply chain to fund domestic and abroad are supply and this may be with us for a while. One could open surely tell a positive story many firms in many countries that are experiencing significant negative effects on the supplychain disruptions and one might be a on shore in the other obvious answer might be diverse diversificatione of supply chains. Both of these lead to more investments. Thats going to lead to more investment. Perhaps well get less of the benefits of globalization and you could get a boost in investment and one other problem that i will end my remarks with is confidence. Business and Consumer Confidence are shattered right now. Businesses already are not as investing as much sitting on large amounts of cash simply because they did not feel the empire but was conducive. A. Of significant tensions between the between the two largest economies of the world and the u. S. Ns and many of its other mar trading partners. One thing that happened in the 2008 andnd 2009 financial crisis was the g20 did stand together and said we will do things to control the negative effects of this financial crisis. What is remarkable is that this time we have had National GovernmentCentral Banks the plate iso joyce pointed out even more dramatically than during the crisis. At a time like this there is a concerted strategy at the domestic level and the global level is really important in bringing back Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence. We havent quite seen that happen largely because of lack of u. S. Leadership but also because they think fearmongering seems to have been an important pastime of National Leaders are rather than the problems we face of the national and Global Economy. I think thats going to be an important thing in my mind one of the Critical Issues as we look at the shape of the recovery and whether in fact the downturn is more prolonged and whether government in addition to these measures are taking monetary and fiscal stimulus really provide strategy for dealing with the public help to mentionn but also the policies dimensions in the court nation of these policies domestically and globally. Im hopeful that things will change. With me ask you eswar how do you raise the rate the performance of international anitere fund and the world bank . They have certainly tried hard. It think the willingness of the imf and the world bank to use their resources to the extent possible especially the much weaker economies and to coordinate federally has been very much along that line. Certainly some of the systems of National Governmentfo the small economies ultimately in the form of debt relief for debt write off are going to be crucial. This mechanism came into play and are not working well for the emerging market economies and you dontt have china with just mild positive growth this year. Commodities out of this problem for developing countries that rely and export revenue. Even when its virtually external demand growth has stunted so it every dimension of the developing economies are getting hammered. I think the imf and the world bank have certainly done the right things are a lot more needs to be done because of the resources are limited and all we can do is provide efforts for National Governments and the privateul markets. One of the things that the world bank and jpmorgan report underscore is that this crisis has not been as bad as africa and latin america. He is to be the chief economist at the world bank and did a presentation on Economic Activity where she expressed some surprise that covid hasnt been more devastating in the low Income Countries with a very robust Public Health system. I wonder whether you think a should we believe thea, date on africa that effort has been relatively less harmed like this and b is this just the calm before the tsunami hits them . It is true that the numbers for africa have been relatively low compared to other regions but the reality is its going up daily and going down. It reflects the reality in africa bearing the worst of it in some of the policy measures that have been taken up and effective. But i would caution because there needs to be widespread tey we can be confident that a sufficient amount of w testing would claire but we certainly hope that would be the case. For that to happen we need to step up in terms of randomized testing testing. On the economic front before the pandemic africa was looking at the very robust century of Economic Growth through 2025 we are goingo to have 5 growth on average and seven of the 10 economies in 2025. This performance disrupted on the economic numbers in the forecast with a World Bank Report its not looking bad but you have to remember we need to normalize this and look at it as per of the income terms so you would see a narrowing of that gap depending on how covid is affecting the economy. Wit means quite a lot and as i alluded to earlier we had Oil Prices Tank at 55 in the first three months but it took several months were to read that level of decline. Tourism makes a big update big chunk of the economy. If you look at 85 billion in 2018 and compare that to four yearsha ago which was 50 billio. Importantly highlynt reliant on so its very disruptive economic activities. Thats going to happen economic effects so in many ways its like having many crises and one. In africas case the Global Economy will be iff you remember in the regions were the economic crisis preceded the Health Crisis because of their reliance similarly to the recovery in external empowerment particularly china we should begin to also see some positive growth. The key issue is how to come ous of this and be able to preserve fundamentals. En the ability to mobilize resources in response to the health and economic fallout after the outbreak. Youll only see 1 of gdp for dance economies but particularly the u. S. And other Major Economies somewhere around four orwh 5 rate this country is unable to muster the physical response necessary to good ahead. This is o where i am as and the World Bank Efforts have been helpful but this was pointed out i eswar they have come a long way but not enough and what has been missing is being able to think out of the box and to come up with unorthodox policies like many other Major Economies have done. Where did constrained by policy orthodox. Give me an example of nonorthodox thing that you think the International Financial institutions in lowIncome Countries. Some of the private sector should begin by looking into the str and 500 billion of str. In that case as was alluded to it requires a majority but the political will is just not there. I think the g20 could not get that luke will support. Ayhan one of the things that has been noteworthy over the last several o years is in part thanks to china but not exclusively as a steady decline in the number of people who fall below the world ranked definition of poverty. While there has been an increase in inequality within countries like within the United States there has been at decrease in Global Inequality in part because so many people at the bottom have been lifted out of poverty and it looks like this progress is being disrupted by the covid pandemic and the global recession that you describe. Im curious whether you think first how big of a deal is at the second way that something that we can recover from in a couple of years or so so long lasting setback for that progress . The implications of the pandemic have declined significantly. Theres this issue of poverty that i talked about this global recession and that double recession is the baseline we are expecting a contraction. It could be a . The number of poor will increase anywhere between 70 to 100 million. This will be the first time after number of years we see an increase in the number of poor globally. Of course with this deep recession aroun the world there are gains in the local economy is able to adjust overextended period of time the context of objectives and i think we are going to lose a significant share. There is shortterm damage. When you look at the longterm consequences of one important issue how what will affect potential growth and regenerate growth. We are really concerned. Eswar mentioned we have seen the type off uncertainty like we hae never seen before at the global level. That impact will be in the foreseeable future and then you have millions of unemployed. Unemployment comes always with a roche and of human capitol. In many countries around the world schoolage children faced challenges that require the type of education required under normal circumstances. This erosion of human Capitol Associated with and then of course you have a serious slowdown for investment or productivity. Why all of these are important in growth to reduce poverty and you need to have growth in the larger part in Income Distribution to improve the inequality. The pandemic creates all types of challenges and i think in terms of the outcome the types of challenges we have prior to the pandemic will be basically magnified because of this. You mentioned briefly and he usedly the phrase demobilization and im wondering whether you think looking back at this. We can say 2007 was the peak of the shortterm peak of globalization trade and direct investment and whether we will be on a steady downturn as their factor of gdp and eswar raise the probability that this would have shortterm benefits becaue of increased benefits that the risk is it will lead to smaller productivity growth. Im just curious how you think about this recognizing we wont call you back in 10 years and remind you what you said today. D globalization is a serious longterm threat but its also in some of the control of the political actors. The way china tensions play out in all these factors are influences. What we saw the trade intensity hasth basically stalled after te Global Financial crisis. And what i would call different shocks. You have the recession after the First Financial crisis and the second was 2015 and 26 he would have slowdown in oil prices and in 2019 you have u. S. China trade tensions and now to have the pandemic leading to disruption. Its also something that happens very gradually and i would say if we take a look at the u. S. China tensions one thing that one has to note if you look at the American Chamber of commerce surveys and you look at the business responses 83 of u. S. Companies say they are not relocating their manufacturing with china. Only 11 of europe and we still see there a lot of things when you look at china. First of all these companies disrupt the Chinese Market in china is the only country if you look at the 666 manufacturing componentsts they have the skild labor force with 1. 4 million stem graduates annually could they have an infrastructure and they have government supported some of these sectors. Ni dont think the supply chais are going to move that he sleep that i m do think we should be thinking about china plus one and between the u. S. And china the trade war has always been and these will linger on the respective of which administration it is. There is republican and democratic concern on some of the technology issues. I would say we see this as a longerterm threat and one that started well before this pandemic as far as what is working through but i wouldnt over exaggerateded the model ani still think there is a lot of discussion that will take place after the crisis on what is the right kind of way getting back to ari multilateral structure or something that is more of a populist realm. One thing to notice many of the populace have lost support duringng the pandemic. They havein not gained support o there are reasons to have optimism with that. We have about eight minutes left. I thought i might ask a question that each of you can answer briefly. Basically it is the on the obvious number of cases of covid which will be the most important factor what is one thing or two things that you think will most determine whether we have a more robust recovery in the beginning of 2021 . What are the things that really matter . Eswar can i start with you . What do you think would be the most important . I started getting attuned to the state of Small Business but what happens to small and Medium Enterprises its going to be crucial forar every economy. These are the firms that suffer theth most because they have the smallest cash level and if you look at the economy and the job creation by these firms on the front of the job losses it comes up relatively quickly and it will be difficult to sustain decent employment growth rate if you look at china most of the emerging market economies small and Medium Enterprises are crucial to productivity growth. Having Financial Systems is a good thing that there is going to have to be policy support to make sure that these firms are taking care of. An economic revival will be difficult to come by especially in terms of consumption. We have seen of spiking household saving rate largely because of countries raising the perpe cautionary savings that there are many people that are hurting and many of those people hurting are tied of the Smaller Enterprises so thats really the keyy to economic survival. I would agree with what eswar says but what i would point out in particular is this crisis first and foremost as a Health Crisis and secondarily an economic crisis which means the urgency around the rebound begins with clarity on a vaccine or treatment. If we do not have that and its prolonged a solution will be unattainable no matter what happens with the economy. Joyce. I agree with all the points have been made but the key thing we are looking at is labor income. You turn everything off any turn back on but the real question is are you going to be able to create jobs . The unemployment numbers were not as bad as what people thought but a 15 year low unemployment and if you look at the packages in the private Sector Income we estimate contracted by a third but. 20 Percentage Points. Will those jobs returned and its very much in line with what eswar said. These are small and mediumsize businesses and what happens when all of the stimulus rolls off . I would agree what is the duration of this o recession. Will there be a vaccination that is suitable for widespread usage amongst the population in something i would mention is Commodity Prices. Commodity prices are incredibly important for emerging Market Countries and particularly for latin america. I think even thats one of the hardest hit regions thats going to be very important in the china cycle as well and africa as well. You still have Commodity Prices are a driver for merging markets. Em ayhan what would be the top of your list that would increase the chances of unfettered recovery. Recovery can be strong and sustainable only if it comes along with a sharp increase in confidence. I agreeat with what other panelists said we need to see confidence coming back and we really need to see the Financial Market parties and we will not have the stress event down the road. These two go handinhand and it will all depend on how it will carry on critic goes back to the question you asked at the beginning. Sooner or later the Financial Market might ask how we will go forward with this largescale policy support. This type of question can generate all types of confidence issues and bigger financial episodes as well. Basically its the single most important indicator. I think we are out of time but i want to thank ayhan for a very conference of report and i recommend if people only look at your slides but theres a lot more in the details of the report which is on the World Bank Web site. I want to thank joyce for bringing us the perspective of jpmorgan which has put up an extraordinarily useful research and updates during this crisis when we are flooded. I always read the jpmorgan stuff and eswar who answers almost any question thoughtfully and in complete paragraphs which im always envious and we want to congratulate you and your new post. We hope you wont stop thinking about policies towards africa which you point out is the place with a growing population and has so much potential. With that i want to thank you all and thank everybody who listened and if you enjoyed it so much you want to watch again the video will be on the web site and you can enjoy it and shared share it with all your friends and i hope you will. With that thank you all and be safe. Thank you david. Thank you joyce ayhan and eswar. Thank you. Our countries are linked by trade and travel. And ongoing efforts to focus on the mission to save lives and meet the needs of our health care workers. Things are coming out to say hello. Who is from campaign 2020. Your calls and comments are welcome