Mobilization, military health affairs, for structure, equal opportunity and marketing among others, which is more striking hes found time in his schedule to come here and talk to us today and were very grateful for that. A 1980 graduate, policy john f. Kept from Harvard University and phd from policy from rand graduate school. During his 30 year army career he served as a special weapons officer in germany within the United States and korea and he spent ten years as an associate professor of economics at west point where he also was the director of the u. S. Armys office of manpower and analysis advising Senior Army Leaders on Office Retention and marketing. My favorite piece of this introduction is that he created the Award Winning stateoftheart Americas Army game which served as a Key Recruiting tool for the service as well as the virtual army experience. Im expecting that you should all ask him questions about that aft after. Excuse me. Among his military awards and decorations, service medal, legion of merit and four Meritorious Service medals. Please welcome dr. Wardynski. [ applause ] well, it is afternoon. Good afternoon, everybody. Its terrific to be here. On behalf of secretary of the army mark esper, i bring you greetings. Chief of staff of the army, i bring you greetings. Myself, i thank those of you who have served for your service and the rest of you for your attention. This afternoon what i wanted to do was touch on some of the points that were brought up in the last session. Perhaps add a little more background and color to them and talk about perhaps the flip side in a way, which is how would the United States or could the United States ever go back to a draft army. Ill lead to you a quick conclusion. I doubt it. The draft army ended in 1973. In 69 as youve been told, the National Commission on all volunteer army was formed. A gentleman who then became secretary of defense gates and others were studying this issue. One of the Commission Members took note that a volunteer army would be okay, could probably work during periods of peace but in a period of conflict and stress upon the army, likely would not work. That was an academic point until a day in september of 2001. That day i had been on a flight out of newark airport. Next to me was a flight that took off and crashed in pennsylvania. I didnt know those folks were on that plane. But by the time i landed in huntsville, alabama, i knew the United States was in some kind of difficulty. My mom called me. When i got to burger king to get breakfast, the plane had just landed. I didnt know it but all planes are being grounded. She said im so glad i got ahold of you. Im glad youre still alive. Okay. My mom doesnt call every day, so it was a little unusual. I said, why wouldnt i be alive. She said, well, we thought you were in the pentagon today, and we thought you might have been in that plane attack on the pentagon, which i didnt know about. The plane, indeed, did hit the pentagon and killed my boss, Lieutenant General in charge of army personnel. If i had been in the pentagon that day, i might have been in that area but i wasnt. I had been sent to huntsville by g3 of the army. General larry ellis to study what could be done about patriot missiles and getting them onto c130 aircraft and something more mobile. If the patriot folks had done a little more homework after 9 11, they could have had anything the United States would give them. Their defense became a key concern. I never dreamt next time i went to the pentagon id say air defense weapons in the parking lot. I was to take a training at west point, where i was director of economic and manpower analysis. I was going down to meet the gentleman with the job i have now, brown, assistant secretary of army for manpower and reserve affairs. If youre not familiar with the secretary of the army, you have the secretary. Hes an overall control of the army. We have civilian control of the army, chief of staff. Senior military officer is his military assistant and his military adviser. The secretary has several assistants, civil works, Acquisition Technology and logistics, finances, comptroller, general counsel, installations. And then the portfolio and 60 of the armys budget, all things human to include training, operations, mobilization. I was there to see mr. Brown on the topic of the all volunteer army. The United States by that time clearly was in a war. We were still figuring out who we were at war with but there was a pretty good indication it was going to be a serious undertaking. Mr. Brown wanted me to come down to talk to him about how we might hold volunteer army together for an undetermined period of time. I went into his office. My office is sort of where that pole is today. His office was in a different part of the pentagon. The g1s office was there. In a space like the one i occupy today, i went in and it was him and a person i quickly thought was a crazy woman. She was a political appointee as was he, so he couldnt get rid of her, i guess. She was berating him about the need to immediately institute a draft and why wasnt he already beginning mobilization and calling for selective service. He finally heard what she had to say. She left the room and looked at me i kind of looked at him quizzically, where did she come from. He looked at me and said, so what are we going to do. At that point forward the outfit i ran and greg my comrade in arms worried about probably 80 of our time was how do we hold the volunteer army together for an indeterminate period of war, which will stretch very close to its limits. We spent a good bit of time worrying about that. Men of the tools we turn to were not that novel and they were tools a gentleman you may know of had turned to early on in about 1979. That was general maxwell thurman. Mad max, as they called him, is a little known individual but one the volunteer army has been living off since he commanded recruiting command all that time ago. Even to this day. At that point, as a Previous Panel discussed, the apparently was struggling. The period of the 70s, i was a cadet at west point. Mayor at west point wasnt particularly high. Class of 72 wasnten maked. It was the first time in the academys history they could not fill a corps of cadets. They fired admission. Topics on long hair, tended to be a long haired bunch. Officers had short hair. It had more to do with getting a date, i think, than anything else. But it was a curious time in our history. At that point, there is a lot of concern about the volunteer army. Theres concern about the Armed Forces Qualification scores soldiers were exhibiting and the quality of the force, as you have discussed. The army was not particularly happy with the way things are going. General thurman was sent out to recruiting command, which at that time was in chicago at fort sheridan. Close to america, in the middle of a big city. His mission was to make the all volunteer army work. He brought in at that time the best minds he could find, and there were a lot of them. The army at that time was very much in the vein of a thing called ppbs, programming, planning, execution system secretary had brought on board and bludgeoned the army with in early days. The army coming to grips formed Operations Research to deal with quantitative analysis in matters of budget and they brought these same folks in to deal with matters of recruiting analysis. So these fine officers began the work of studying america, studying the armys needs down to the level of occupation, skills required in those occupations, intelligence levels and so forth and then trying to map that against what they could draw out of america. In the early days it was a struggle, even for general thurman. Some random reason, he requested an officer from west point to come in to join his team and listen about it. As his team was concluding their plan of action, this officer from west point, a fellow named tom fagan said, you dont know what youre doing. It is not a command and control environment, it is a market. You must go in the labor markets of the United States of america and compete. You must recruit. So as bernie said, its not really a volunteer army, it is a recruited army. The army must compete in labor markets to draw in the youth of america who face any number of other alternative uses of their team to join the military and serve. From that point, general thur n thurman, who was a bit of a pistol, said you work for me. He created office of manpower and analysis at west point, which is where all the army economists were because they taught cadets economics. At the same time he created rand royal, armys project at the rand corporation. He was a big blofr in competing analysis. He even had them do competing analysis on all manner of problems dealing with recruiting. From that point forward analytic pieces began to fall into place. They studied advertising. They studied things like jingles, army college fund, the bonus programs put into place. Any number of incentives. Ultimately you know the history, things began to turn around. I would say by 1983 the volunteer army was performing quite well in terms of meeting the needs of america, which it had a volunteer army and the needs of the army and that it had a good supply of Young Americans who were willing to serve on trms that merms that m armys needs and had the attributes the army called for. That really set the army in a trajectory that has brought us to today at a point in which when i conclude my remarks, i would argue were very close to 1983 again in terms of a very big change in direction of the United States army with regard to how were going to operate within the volunteer army. But ill hold that just for a few moments. The last panel really was a great precursor. They have already told you things were going to say again but help a little more structure to think about how the army operates today and maybe get to my premise it would be very difficult to bring a draft back. First there on the left you can see the structure of the army. We call that the total force. Its the guard, the reserve, and the active component. The reserve is very closely linked to the active army in that the chief of staff, secretary and i, have a great deal of control over it and how its funded, how its structured and all of that. But then youve got the 54 other armies that comprise the National Guard. They typically belong to the gm governors but secretaries exert Strong Authority with regard to doctrine, equipment, training, funding and so forth. But until federalized they are under control of the governors. You can see at the time of vietnam this was a total army about 2. 1 million. The active component was very large relative to that, 1. 5 million. When you look at the army today, its really quite a bit smaller. About a man total army, active is the minority not the majority. The active is about 478,000 soldiers by the end of this year with the guard being the next biggest component and then the reserves. Each of those serve a different function. Guard being very heavy in combat formations, reserve more and specialty things, a lot of medicine in there, things like that. But as you can see, the army total, the active is not that large. As you can imagine, that means active requires the ongoing collaboration and participation of the other two components. Its not an accident. Melvin laird at the end of vietnam for a variety of reasons to include most likely political reasons, measures of national will, concluded it would not be a good thing again to send the army to war without bringing online the rest of the population. The army had put attacks on the young. Im a bit of a friedman guy myself as an economist and leveled attacks on the young for a short period of its history. The long history of the United States, i think there has been about 30, 40 years of drafts. The normal course of affairs, we did not have a draft. When we did have a draft and towards the end of vietnam, the draft was falling on such a small share of americas youth, Something Like four man Young Americans in an age group, 17, 18, 19, so forth, even application to americas youth, no longer universal levee on the young. A very uneven tax on just a few. That was the army of the United States and it was not a good thing to send the army to war without a Firm Commitment of the country it ought to go to war. A war that would require some significant level of effort would therefore require some significant mobilization of the reserves. That would therefore bring political will to bear early and not later on. Perhaps could have raised some questions that folks here today have talked about in terms of 1965 and what was thought and known in those years versus future engagements that the army might participate in. So that was people. This money. I deal a lot with money in the pentagon. My oversight is about 100 million, which is a lot of money. As you can see here on the left was the distribution of that pie h 25 billion was a lot of money in the 60s. Gives you an idea for inflation. 182 billion today. You can see where that money goes. The black is Everything Else the army is doing, the color pies are the human parts of the army. You can see back in the 69 timeframe, guard and reserve were very small pieces of the puzzle with the active component being about a third of total Army Spending. Today the human component is about a third of Army Spending but the active component is down to 27 and guard and reserve are much more significant. That tells you a lot. If you follow the money in any organization, it will tell you what they value. We highly value dat guard and reserve because they make a very significant component of the total source and a great component of our ability to wage w war. Can you see the growth there. Its quite stark, order of 5 or 4 in terms of magnitude. The other thing to recognize, the army is about half the size it was. Its allocation of resources to the human component, now the volunteer component is about the same. That gives you an idea of a shift in resources that had to take place at the soldier level to make the volunteer army work. The last panel touched on that as well. Folks worrying about the commitment of resources it would take to draw Young Americans in without taxing them, drafting them, an get them to come in as volunteers and get them to serve willingly. Another thing to note is that the United States in small ways and large has been at war a good bit of the time the volunteer army has been in existence. From the left, the right is years from north to south is total Army Strength. Can you see even as Army Strength was coming down the number of engagements were going up. Some were not particularly long in duration and didnt require significant formations from the army, grenade ark, libya, panampanam grenada, libya, some were quick and others enduring. As you notice, after the Army Strength came down at the end of vietnam and then at the end of the cold war, it never really moved very much. The blue is fairly level, green and red are fairly level of the army has been able to wage war by relying, in large measure, on the guard and reserve without resorting to a call up of a draft. Thats a pretty significant thing for many reasons. One, its been able to leafy americas commitment to these engagements. Another is for about 50 years the army has been able to define service in the army. During vietnam those terms of service were much different than they are today. Draft hes made up about 60 of folks entering the army in any given year. They came in on two years of service. To do a draft for much longer term of service would prove politically and otherwise difficult to do. Today we have no one enter two years of service, it boils down to 3 1 2 years. Part of what allowed us to do that, we have a volunteer army. We can bring resources to bear to induce americans to enter for three plus training, four, five, six years of service. About half are coming in on three plus training, 20, 30 on four. Another 20 on five, and the remainder on sixyear enlistments. We pay bonuses commensurate with those levels. Our combat folks tend to be in the shorter terms. Our specialists tend to be in the longer terms, whether cyber security, communications, those sorts of folks. 50 years of doing that really shapes the way the army thinks about how it should fight. If you have to bring in people for two year terms of service, think about what you can do in terms of preparing them for war, training, organizing them into the armys formations, having those formations organize and train as units. Have those units train as part of larger formations would be very, very limited. With the terms of service we have today, weve configured the army to fight at levels of operations not thought of in vietnam. Night and day, night vision just coming in during vietnam. Nighttime operations were n s w up heard of are not the norm. Today the army says it owns the night. Our preferred operating environment is one in which we have the advantage. Against many enemies, the night is a preferred area of operation. To do that obviously takes a great deal of training and collaboration across teams. To build an army like that requires certain inducements. This chart gets at that. The yellow line in real dollar terms, 2019 dollars. What was soldier pay back in 69 timeframe and what is soldier pay today. They would be e2. Thats a private thats just a private, right . Thats a private and two years of service. Can you see pay is twice what it was then. Thats the yellow. If you look at the other, the orange bars and gray bars, they have really grown. Thats some of the things youve heard about, quality of life things. A measure was discussed, weekends. Soldiers pretty much have weekends unless were training. While thats not a dollar, that is value. This business of barracks, show you about that in a moment. Almost every measure you can think of, the life of a soldier today is quite different from that of a soldier in 1969 that has been drafted. The reason, we have to compete for labor. These are great Young Americans. They come in. They expect to be able to date. They expect to be able to have a car. They expect to be able to have a life and the wherewithal to participate in the american dream. Many of them were getting married very young. In those days you needed permission to get married. When i came in the army, my wife was on my efficiency report. Today nobody would even dream of such a thing. So not only were you drafted but so was your spouse. And she was expected to do all sorts of numbers of things if you were an officer or senior sergeant. So you can see quite a contrast here between a draft army and a volunteer army. With regard to living quarters. Soldiers in the vietnam era would have seen structures like that in the upper right. A lot of them left over from world war ii. They were gang facilities with bunk beds, very little privacy, gang latrines, gang didnt eves on the toilets. And, of course, they were not gender integrated either. Today the lower left is a sample of what youd find on an Army Installation for single soldier quarters. In there its not a matter of dividing the barracks. The barracks are divide. Typically its a twoplustwo structure. Two bedrooms and two common spaces, a bathroom and a kitchen. And so two soldiers would each have their own private living quarters, and then theyll share a kitchen and share a bathroom. And they can do quite a bit in that space in terms of customizing it to their likings. In addition to that, there will be parking nearby. If they are deployed, the army will ensure their cars are protected and stored. When theyre back, theyll enjoy the opportunity to go to a world class fitness facility. Dining facilities, recreation facilities. A great deal of effort made to improve quality of life for soldiers. So if you think of that, you can kind of reflect on what theyre thinking about the tax that was put on young people through a draft. And particularly if it was only placed on a very small share. Maybe 5 or 10 of young people and how inequitable that would be. Not only pay but all these other things the army does today to provide a high quality of life that most americans would think is quite reasonable coming from civilian world. Turning again to this terms of Service Business and a draft versus a volunteer army. If you look across the horizontal axis, maybe vietnam raer era was on the left and today somewhere over towards the right. And the north south axis is change. And those lines sort of draft graft out rate of change. I would argue and many others have that the top line there, the orange one, is the world in which weve lived here since the 1960s. The rate of change is accelerating. If you think back to the 60s, how different was next year from last year . How different was five to ten years into the future from five to ten years in the past . You think of it today and the rate of change that were participating in today, i would argue, that its much different and, therefore, the curve is curve linear. Its expotential. And change is changing at an increasing rate. Thats the world in which the army believes it has to operate. Thats the world in which we think our soldiers have to operate. And that affects the structure of the army and the way we think about enlistments versus a draft. If you are in the world of accelerating change and you are an entsity like the government at the bottom, us, the government, your world is being drug along by a bunch of things. Technology, society and the business environment. We dont lead in many areas anymore. We probably lead in things like cybersecurity, but that wont be for much of the future. I would imagine within five years, the government will trail in that field. We used to lead in computing. We dont anymore. We used to lead in a lot of areas. Flight. You name it. But we quickly are outpaced by business and quickly outpaced by society, and there are ways to put that to work. The next technology coming online. Our enemies live in this world, too. The enemies that you heard discussed here before are. Our new National Defense strategy focus on terrorism as a sustain, but prepare for major combat operations with two peer competitors. And perhaps iran is in the picture and korea as well. But theyre named in the documents, and the secretary of defense has put a name on one of them, particular in that name is china, china, china. One of these peers today has purchasing power parity with our economy. If you look at what they big mac costs in china and what it costs in america, and sort of convert that to dollars and then convert that to gdp, china is about parity now with the United States. The United States has not been at war with a country that had gdp parity with us probably since maybe the civil war time frame if britain had bothered us. The army has to contemplate that. Resources are now quite important to us. Budgets are very important to us. Making good use of the resources we have. When we go to war, if we ever did, confronting these kinds of nations is an existential affair. Vietnam was not an existential affair. That very much shapes our thinking and our new doctrine which is called multidomain operations. So in vietnam, soldiers were preparing for things like war in land, sea and air. Army didnt do to much on sea. But the army is bringing artillery back that can shoot a thousand miles. With the idea that it can shoot and sink ships. You can probably imagine where were thinking of doing that. Were looking at war in space. Were looking at war in cyberspace. All at the same time. And an environment in which our young folks may be denied satellite communications. Their networks may be jammed. Our networks may be infected with malware that screws up our data and causes us to see things that dont exist. Thats the world in which were really preparing our young folks who volunteer or are recruited to fight. A very complex affair. Day and night operations. 72 hours would not be unusual to be awake with catnaps. Very tough. So a great deal goes on behind the scenes when youre thinking about that kind of fight. Some of it is how you equip your soldiers. The kit of a soldier in 1969 is there on the left. I dont know if it came with the do rag, but the rest of it was there. And it gives you a sense of what we spent, too. The survival rate was not terrific if hit. About 62 . In this war, you can see in the most recent conflict you can see the survival rate, thats due in large part to the kit we provide. When you can draft labor and it is free to an army, perhaps youre thinking about the value of that labor a little differently than when you have to pay for it and bring it in and develop it and keep it. And so the kit we provide soldiers today is much, much different than was provided when labor was free to the army. We spend probably about 20,000 on that kit. Night vision gear, ballistic eye protection, body armor that gives much higher survival, very sophisticated helmets. The uniforms and not too distant future, exo skeletons, things like this to take some of the burden off a soldiers frame and their skeleton to reduce the wear and tear on their body. All of that is sort of what a soldier looks like today in 2019. And that soldier, of course, today, can be a man or a woman. About 24 of our cadets at west point today are women. In 1969 it was zero. So equipping an army for women and men in 1969, the army was about 11 africanamerican. Today that number is about double. 1969, i couldnt find statistics on what percent were hispanic or what percent were asian. In my world, if you dont measure, it probably didnt matter. I can tell you today that caucasians are only 60 of the army because we measure everything. Everything we can think of. Because it all matters because it all touches a human, we care about in very profound ways. Its harder to get into the army. In world war ii, the draft army of that era, there was some dental things they worried about because health care during the Great Depression wasnt amazing. And people had a lot of lousy teeth and things like that. In terms of cognitive ability, had to be able to follow sort of standard orders in common english. Today, much different situation. We are very worried about the cognitive domain. The moral, ethical domain, called social here, and the physical domain. You can imagine bearing up under the load those soldiers wear in the modern age, the work cycle, day and night, 72 hours. The cognitive loads put on them that all these things can be pretty important. So today, while there was afqt scores back in the draft era, their utility wasnt huge in terms of do i get in the army or not . It was more, what am i going to do when i get in the snaerm today its very important for us if you want to come in the army, what is your afqt score. 60 have to be above average. With the balance falling in the next standard deviation. Only 2 can get in as cat 4s into the army today. High School Graduate with more and more being some college. That some college and these cognitive abilities have a great deal to do with what we expect the army to do today. So think about what that would look like now if we asked to have a draft. Well, if 60 of our folks have to be above average intelligence, would we draft people below average . It really brings up some questions. You might say, sure you do. But then why do we demand 60 above average . Well, because of the equipment, the formations and the other expectations that we have for them. The equipment is very demanding. Greg can tell you. Hes been there more recently than i. Equipment you can kind of fold down. It looks like a galaxy phone which you can text and have Field Artillery on the enemy quickly. You can communicate through a mesh network on the battlefield or wifi if its still there, cell phone towers. With your peers and bring intelligence to bear very quickly. And so that presents a lot of cognitive demands on a soldier. The physical of just staying awake and operating in that environment, let alone carrying the loads that our soldiers carry. And then the moral ethical components. Likely, a lot of independent operations. So understanding the rules of land warfare. Rules of engagement. Adhering to those things, right . Youll see on the evening news when our folks dont. And you dont see a lot of those stories because its very unusual. And our social expectation is that they wont do that. For our judge advocate general, you know, of the vietnam era, our judge advocate generals of the moderate era deal with discipline but at very low rates. If you cant behave, you cant be in the army. You cant get in if you misbehaved. And if you get in and you misbehave, you cant stay. So this discipline question, i would say in my workday in the last three months ive been the assistant secretary, i dont think ive seen any issues in a policy nature come across my desk regarding awols, dezerts n i desertions or significant disciplines. You dont get promoted and you ultimately leave the army, whatever your grade. Vietnam, turning again to this business of how one fights. Vietnam was very much an individual replacement sort of operation. The flags went to vietnam. The units that fought there. And by and large, they stayed. But the humans came and went. If youve got draftees on twoyear terms of service, some amount of time is going to be required to train them, to bring them on board, to train them. Transport them. Get them integrated in the unit and get them into the fight. And by the time youve done all that youve probably got less than a year left. And then mobilize them and reintegrate them into society. Individual replacements. That had its place in world war ii, world war i and vietnam. But today were organized much differently given the complexity of organizations and operations again, we deploy units today. So we bring folks in. We get them trained up. We identify a unit that will be getting ready to deploy. Well begin flowing the units in and then the sergeants at lower levels and then finally the troops. Once theyre all together and had a chance to practice their drills together, demonstrate them in a certification test. Then theyre ready to deploy and then theyll go deploy. Typically eight months to a year. Much different approach. Think about doing that with a draft. Be very, very tough. So this has shown up. You dont perhaps see it on the evening news. The soldiers all look alike because they wear these things called uniforms. But if you can see the patches, if they were wearing them because a come off, but if they were, you would see that theres been a lot of rotations and a lot of soldiers going abroad that came out of the garden reserve. And they werent necessarily active army. Or if you saw an active Army Division go within that division or a lot of guard and reservists. And so all the components are right now involved in deployments in 140 countries around the world. About 180,000 soldiers involved in places a draft army never dreamt of going to deal with things that we didnt envision back when there was a draft, whether its ebola in africa or boca haram in the Subsaharan Africa or getting ready for misbehavior in korea. Lots of things going on that require really the skillsets, mindsets of a volunteer force. This gives you a little bit different picture of that. These are places around the world where our National Guard units are our armys preeminent presence. We have country affiliations between guard units and the host nation army. That was not something anybody ever envisioned during the draft. But something is very standard for us. So as opposed to the draft era where the guard and reserve were known as a strategic reserve, something we would call an extremist today the guard and reserve are called an operational reserve. Theyre operationalized with the rest of the army and called on when needed, which is pretty much constant ly. Another aspect that you would not have seen in vietnam era that is now being integrated into our units is the whats circled there in red. Physical therapists. Folks who can come in and deal with keeping soldiers fit and in the fight. Registered dietitions. Occupational therapists. Soldiers get a lot of injuries to through contact with hard objects. And these folks help them recover from those. Strength coaches. All these resources at the battalion and brigade level are flowing into the army. Very much in the vain of soldier as an athlete as well as soldier. Youll see it when you look at their uniforms. Kneepads, elo pads. Vietnam, you didnt have that. Im sure elbows and knees got hurt plenty, and those things are darn cheap. But it was a draft army. Now its an army america owns and has to pay for, and its an expensive army, and we want our soldiers protected in any way we can think of. And so fewer knee and elbow injuries. When they do get them, an Occupational Therapy individual there to help them. When they twist their back carrying a heavy load, the pt is there to help them and to make sure they are as fit as they can be, the strength coach. The days of jumping jacks, i think, are gone. And all the leg lifts and all those other exercises which are really cheap but really lousy. Theyre pretty much gone. Now we have a whole variety of different ways of assessing fitness into categories we now call gold, black and gray. And gold and black and gray are aligned with occupations. They are gender neutral. So if you are going to be in the infantry and youre a woman, and i did say infantry and woman, you are in the black group. And theres things youve got to be able to do. If you cant do them, you cant be in the infantsry. If youre going to be in the armor and be a man or woman in the armor, black group. If youre going to be a cyberperson, maybe youre in the gold or gray group. Different things youve got to do. So very different approach. So i would argue today that the volunteer army is one in which youll be very, very difficult for the army to go back in the old direction, and it will be, quite frankly, one in which you might say, what if we deplete the volunteer army. Weve got to man soldiers. If we got into major combat operations and had to call on a mobilization, we do have plans still for drafts. We do have complete national mobilization. But where would the equipment come from . We dont have a whole lot of equipment laying around to build a cybercapable unit. To build a ribbon bridge unit. To build a helicopter battalion. You can get the people, maybe. Maybe youll have enough time to train them and organize them. But the equipment is going to be a long pull in the tent. Before you lose sleep over that, the enemies are going to engage if they are even going to have a hope against us. Have to fight to some degree in the same way we fight, unless its an unconventional fight like afghanistan. Then they can fight the way they want. But those arent typically going to be existential threats to the United States. Its the major combat operations that will be those kind of threats. The china, china, chinas, the russias, those are probably the ones and really its the china, china, china one. And if those existential threats emerge, they cant come at us with something that isnt matched to what we can do. And then they have to think about their budget and how they organize and bring their folks in. Youve seen china shrink their armies dramatically to professionalize them and equip them in ways competitive so i would suggest that the while total mobilization and draft are still in the books, the combat that we might see would not lend itself to that. And likely our enemies would face the same challenges we face if we got to that point. So what are we doing to prepare for the next thing . Because that curve kept curving up, right . The technology curve. With regard to the volunteer army, the next thing is to leverage whats best about it. And thats america. America, we think, is our greatest resource which should not surprise you. But america is a set of ideas. Dignity, equality, freedom. These kind idea ofs. Our enemies dont share those ideas. They share other ideas with people weve defeated. And when you leverage america, the way the army intends to do it is the revolution that id argue now is on a par with what we saw in between 79 and 83. Its called Talent Management. The effort here is very much in the vain of the right person at the right place at the right time. And that could be either tangibly there. They are assigned to you. Transitory. They could be visiting you as a temporary duty assignment. Or it could be virtual. You contact them through virtual means to request their help. So youve got a tough problem in cybersecurity. You dont have to own the solution. You just have to be able to access it. Think airbnb and uber. If i want to stay somewhere really nice, i dont have to own it anymore. If i want to ride, i dont have to own it. I can do uber. This is the same approach in the army. If we really know our soldiers and really know what they can do, if weve got a way of figuring that out, then when we need it, we can reach out and leverage their expertise and bring them to bear in an important way in an important time. We dont think our enemies can do this because culturally, when youre observing your population constantly, when you are forbidding them access to health care or transportation based on their social score, which youve computed based on watching them in the streets of shanghai or beijing through various technologies, theyre not likely to want to share a lot more with you about what theyre up to, what they know, where theyve been, what vacations theyve had, what friends they have abroad. But an army and a country in which people are very custom to linked in, facebook, these kind of technologies where people share a whole lot and through the mechanism of trust believe it will be used in a wholesome way, the army to the extent that it purports comports itself with this wholesome use, can learn a lot about its sold krers. And the things were learning is amazing. And i will just relay a story. This was relayed to me by folks back at west point. So i believe it to be true. A gentleman, dane wrightout, back before bin laden was taken down. He came up to west point. Was looking in the prototype for this Talent Management system. Folks thought he was just looking at it. And years go by. Bin laden is now somewhere at the bottom of the indian ocean. And the gentleman is now assigned as the garrison commander. He said, hey, why hasnt green pages been fielded . Why isnt the army using the Talent Management system writ large yet . Or why do you care . And he said i didnt come up to peruse the thing. I came up looking for a human. We needed somebody who could get into that area, sort of unobserved and not without raising a lot of suspicion. They need to be an expert in demolition. Needed to have some facility with the language. They needed to know something about communications because as the helicopters came in, there was a communication tower there we were worried about. We were worried about them on the inside calling out for help and we needed to know that to know if we had to send some other folks in to provide air cover. At a certain point in time we needed to take that tower out because it was in the way of the helicopters. At the end we needed that fellow to get out of there. They found that fellow through the Talent Management system. A west point engineer. And so that level of detail, imagine trying to know that in the vietnam era. It was not doable. The technology was not there. The thought of doing it wasnt there. The depth of relationship between the army and its soldiers wasnt there. But today that depth of relationship is there and the technologies there are to do that. To be able to bring that to bear against our enemies is, in my mind, being able to bring america to bear against our enemies. The best of america. Trust, you know. The other atributes that cause us to share information and to bring our gifts which are plentiful to bear. And the armys investment in our soldiers which is quite robust to access the benefits of that education as well. So a lot of words, but i conclude by saying the vietnam era folks met their nations call. They served as their country asked and did so with dignity. It was the draft era. Today is a much different time. Perhaps calls more for a volunteer army than a draft army. Perhaps would be very difficult to reverse engines given all the challenges that are embedded in the battlefield today. And certainly would be one which, in my mind, would be unequitable if we were just a small part of our population with any in your group. And you can see the investment its taken to sort of equal that tax. The tax on 5 to 10 of a group in 1969 versus what it takes to run a volunteer army today. Probably best if we pay our young people and we bring in volunteers and then we do our best to send them back to you again whole. Thank you. [ applause ] i think we have like ten minutes. Yes, sir . Sir, what is your recruiting target percentage for enlisting High School Grads today . And how close are we to meeting them . Since i only get you once, i have plenty more. Have you considered nco grades, or is dod considering nco grades upon enlistment for specialists like cyber . Thank you. Great questions. So if i understood the first question, our target for high School Graduates is what we call category 1. No less than 90 . So 90 or better have to be high School Graduates. I would tell you that the part of the reason im here in town, i was at Fort Leavenworth yesterday working on the Talent Management topic with the commander of the battalion commands over there. And i got an opportunity to tour the university the army has put in there. I havent been here since i was a command general back in the 90s. Army university is amazing. And its focused on our sergeants. And so in that, the goal is while a soldier is in the army, they would be able to progress very far. Definitely associates degree, perhaps all the way to bachelor the degree and their credits all transfer to major state universities. I think theyre working with ku. Big focus on continuing education for soldiers and sergeants among that group, obviously. All the armys educational institutions except for west point are in the university. West point is kind of doing what its done for the last 200 years. So this bit about high school is really just becoming table stakes now. Were looking at some college, even college. We bring in a lot of College Graduates in the army for some specific areas as soldiers and sergeants. Some are in the area of cyber. Some are in intelligence, communications and other fairly technical fields. Some are in combat arms. Infantry armor. And because education has become so expensive these days, we have a lot of programs that help them. Loan repayment and things like that. So that was the first question. And i have lost track of the second. Nco status upon enlistment for experts. Yes, so the cyber corps, which is probably the very upper tier right now of our expertise. A large number of soldiers. Its really forcing us to think very hard. I visited with a commander of cybercommand. Very fine gentleman, general foegerty. And he was relaying that in a Traditional Army environment you have a pyramid and a lot of soldiers and not too many chiefs. And as you go, and work your way up, were not big on lateral entry. You dont come in and be chief of staff of the army, your experience gained brought a lot of credibility to the table. A lot of expertise. And in cyber, its inverted. The longer youve been in cyber but not doing cyber, your expertise is atrophying quickly. Our upper ranks of our cyberfield is officers who there was no cyber. And so thinking through rank and expertise and authority is a bit of a conundrum for us right now. And they are working hard on those sorts of things, but that will go into robotics and Artificial Intelligence and hypervelocity weapons. And all of these sorts of things where the expertise is evolving very, very quickly and its not connected to time and service and how much experience have i had. And so rank is becoming something which might sound a little scary. You know, has its utility, but its not the same as it was. In a draft army, that would probably be a big problem. In an army of professionals, i donts dont think its going to be a big problem. It will be manageable in terms of i defer quite often to people that i outrank because they have superior expertise and they provide me advice. Now when the final decision is made, ill make it, and then well go forward, but very, very collaborative organization. Not like what you see in the movies where people are sa lulig each other all day and the head man is giving out barking orders and the other people are moving out. Great deal. I seek gregs advice on almost everything i do. My other folks that i worg with, i seek their advice because very capable people. Great insights and so as you can imagine, in a technical field, even more so. [ inaudible ] . Excuse me . Propay . Yes, some of these enlistees, cyber guys earn just for being cyber about 1,000 a month extra which when you look at the outside options is not a lot. So there were thinking about how they can work in the guard, be parttime army. Somebody touched on this in the panel. Parttime army. So we will train them up. One of the key things about the guard and reserve to know is as we retain our people, it hurts the guard and reserve. So theres an overflow of people. We get them in the army. Train them up. Get them very high level and then they go to the guard as parttime soldiers and the reserves as parttime soldiers to live in their ranks. In the cyber arena, these complex areas, theyd go there and then they work at the lloyd or accenture where theyre offering these Services Back to the army or back to cooperations and keep their skills very, very sharp but if we need them, call them back to the colors and in some cases, theyve got Law Enforcement authority since they work for a governor, not a president. So very different sort of approach than perhaps you would have seen in 69. The approach in 69 was probably very reasonable for that time, but getting a little thread bare. This one, we hope, is appropriate for this time. Any other questions . Yes, maam. I was wondering if you could add to your portrait, the role of contractors in the total force. Both in sort of transitioning from the draft to the volunteer era but also Going Forward against multiple adversaries. Sure. Contractors are important to us. I have a great many contract folks i work with in the pentagon. Mostly the headquarters we try and have soldiers in the field. Soldiers are very expensive doing jobs civilians could do in the pentagon, were very careful about how many people do that. Gregs in the pentagon with me. Greg will go back to the field army when hes done in the pentagon. Probably be a brigade commander. So people dont typically come in uniform and stay very long. Its an assignment to prepare them to come back again. The green suit army, soon to be the olive drab and brown suit army, they bring key incite and expertise from the field army, but many of them also go into the contracting world right when they retire. So we can still access that expertise that we developed and they come back as a contractor. Come back garden reserve. But in terms of contract, the army sees that as a uniformed enterprise. I know during the gulf war, you saw blackwater and triple canopy and these sorts of organizations. Often they were brought in to protect other contractors that were running logistic operations, protect their base areas. And i think with some concern by america that we were doing that. And not unfounded. Rules of engagement that representing our country, are they bound by our expectations . Drones, i would say youll probably find contractors even today. A contractor may take a drone during the routine part of the flight, but when any engagement of a Hostile Force is thought of, youll probably see a happenedo handoff to somebody in uniform. Sort of a hybrid there. As robots become a bigger part of the battlefield. Youll see them probably in logistics. Running them remotely by contractor, if theyre not a lethal thing, a truck. Probably reasonable to expect that to happen if they are lethal. Big question mark about, will they be lethal and if they ever are, theyll be under the control of uniform people. Yes, sir, and then ill come to you, maam. Or i guess ill come to you first. And they told me to keep the mic out. We are using first of all, are you training for g5 and are we using g5 as of yet . G5 . You got me on that one. Well, im not that smart, but its supposed to be the new oh, the networks . Yes. The phones and all that. Right. Thank you. It will just become a backbone of what we do. So it will be transparent to our soldiers. Whether on a g4 or g5 network. But communications is, obviously, vital in this world. So you need a technologyist to give you a better answer than that. This is scary stuff. Theres a reason the president does what he does. And communications is vital in knowing our communications are over devices. Its important for us. You can imagine. Thank you. Yes, sir . Thanks for coming today. I appreciate it. I was wondering if you could respond to a proposition and if we could set the specialties aside like cyber. Allvolunteer force in reality, its still a drafted army that were not recruiting, but were drafting from the lower soesio economic rungs of american society. So im quoting some statistics from the council on Foreign Relations that 40 of the force is from are from households of 50,000 a year or less. That jumps to 60 when you go up to 60,000 a year as you mentioned. 43 of men are in the minority. 56 cfr for female soldiers and enlisted. Doesnt this complicate the narrative of the willingness aspect of the allvolunteer force that youre not competing with the labor market but youre drafting those who cannot compete in the labor market . I think unemployment is somewhere around 3 or so today. So its not that there arent opportunities for americans in the economy. As a dad who has got two sons in the army a son and daughter in the army and a son in the coast guard, i would say they faced any number of opportunities and they volunteered. In my other sons case, since join i joining, a tremendous month to benefit them. In terms of Young Americans, i would not deny them the opportunities Americas Army affords. America invests heavily in those folks. Education. You heard my resume. I never expected to go to harvard. I never expected to get a ph. D. The army highly values education. Its what you guys value, too. Its a great pathway to get that. A large number of dangerous jobs in this country. The army does entail danger, but entails great reward, too. There are people in many occupations getting hurt and killed that are, you know, construction industries, fisheries, maritime, and yet these are important jobs that need to be done as well. I think being clear about what the jobs ups and downs are is important. I think the army is pretty transparent. Even if it wasnt, theres no end of availability to whats available to adults. That game talked about at the beginning, part of the role of that was to be very transparent. The army wants people in the army that want to be in the army and know the challenges and benefits of being in the army. And that game, we knew every kid had seen full metal jacket that might ever want to come in the army. Theres the emblem attic scene where the soldier shoots his drill sergeant. Like, okay, the kids have seen that. If you try that in the armys game, you go to jail. And its a very boring experience listening to a guy on a harmonica. You can get hurt and you dont get to have replay. Your treat your comrades as a medic. Were trying to show so people know what theyre getting into. Its a very expensive enterprise for the United States. We dont want buyers remorse. We dont want somebody going back to america saying thats not like i expected. Wed like them to go back to america and tell their family, their peers, it was pretty much like i thought it would be. Great days and really lousy days. Some great food and lousy food. It was cold. I was hot. Life is like that. And like any other veteran, ill tell you my war stories. Im not going to tell you the boring days. Ill just give you the colorful days because nobody wants to listen to a boring story. Ive got 30 years of boring stories. A lot of vets have 30 years of stories and the business of the kids, i would reflect on just one thing. The group most likely to join the army or the other services are children of military. I cant think of a group that knows more about the military than kids who have been in the military, essentially, traveling the world with their parents when mom or dad comes home at the end of the day and says, this is what happened today, theyve heard that all the way to age 17, 18. And then theyve decided to join. My kids heard me come home and complain. My kids heard me come home and celebrate. They were there when i was promoted. My wife was there when i was promoted. They saw the investments. They saw the outcomes. They made their own choices. They are in the military. And in america, the most likely group to join the military is children of military. To some degree, its a Family Business like medicine and entertainment and others. Kids know how to approach it and how to enter it. If it was not a great undertaking, that group which knows us best, i would argue, would certainly not be the most likely group to join. They might be as likely or less likely. But not likely to the degree they are. Thats my personal set of beliefs. I think challenging the army is always a good thing because it makes us better. I think looking at where we recruit and succeed certainly is a good thing. But you can imagine when we go after direct deployment doctors and Communications Experts and not leaving out cyber and those fields, the army is about, i think, 20something percent combat arms. The rest is the supporting arms, right, which are pretty complex and even combat arms today is getting very, very complex. I do thank you for your questions and give me a chance to pontificate for a moment. Thank you. Just following up on the last question. If you remove children from military families, what is the divide of the soescio economic the market we go in pretty heavily is the right after High School Graduation, obviously. The laws tell us where dont go below this line, obviously, right . You can go above that line. But then you start getting in the area of age does somewhat matter, right . This fitness stuff. Im not probably a good candidate anymore so youre probably in the 20 to excuse me, 18 to 26 range is really where were the thickest. You look in that group. Most parents are going to say to their kid, i want you to go to college. If they go straight to college and dont join the military, its a little tougher to communicate with them. You fish where theres more fish, right . And thats high school, High School Graduation and then Community Colleges. And so the folks that would be going to Community College typically, they are coming from families where there is a resource constraint more than families that go directly to fouryear colleges. Community college is a really good buy. So if were in that area, were going to see people that arent, you know, at the top of the income structure at the same rate at which we see people in the middle of the income structure. 50,000 to 60,000 a year Household Income is not terribly low in this country. Its probably right in the pack. When you go to high school and theyre not directly college bound, they may be looking for resources for college. We offer those. They may be looking for something else. My son went straight in the coast guard and he was looking for he wanted to do rescue. He wanted to do National Security and those kinds of things, and then wanted to go do college. So my family, i think at that point, we were probably about 80,000 in Household Income. So not super rich. So we do skew to middle class and lower. The other services may skew elsewhere in that structure. But when you come out with the things the army can offer, youll skew in the other direction and have opportunities that you wouldnt have had perhaps if the army hadnt been there as an opportunity. I dont know if a lot of other outfits that philanthropically are out there paying Student Loan Debt and Offering College and of course, the training that we offer is pretty much without peer. The jet engine mechanics, aviation mechanics that fix our helicopters. What a great occupation and theyre in high demand. You dont have to go to college to be a helicopter pilot. Come right out of high school. Come in the army and be flying a 20 million aircraft within a year. Were the only service where you can do that, and weve got more aircraft than the others put together. So depends what you want. And again, its not for everybody. We want it to be a good match. And, obviously, contribute back to america when these folks come back to civil life. Any others . Well, thank you very much for your time. [ applause ] tonight on the communicators. Well talk about the future of broadcast television and challenges local broadcasters face with Online Platforms like netflix and amazon with National Association of broadcasters president and ceo gordon smith. Were there still as the answer to whats happening to journalism. Were still doing the reporting. Were still investigating. Were Still Holding people accountable. And so i think the future for broadcasting is not just one well survive but well thrive because the people need what we do, even though they sometimes take for granted that were going to be there. But we occupy what i describe as an irreplaceable, indispensable niche in communications. Watch the communicators tonight at 8 00 eastern on cspan2. Weeknights this month, its american huistory tv programs. Tonight its a look at the life and career of Richard Nixon. In 1974, he became the only commander in chief in u. S. History to resign from office. John farrell discusses president nixons early life and career. How they influenced his presidency and what ultimately led to his downfall. Mr. Farrell is the author of Richard Nixon the life. Watch that tonight at 8 00 eastern on cspan3 and enjoy American History tv this week and every weekend on cspan3. This is a special edition of American History tv. A sample of the compelling history programs that air every weekend on American History tv like lectures in history, american artifacts, reel america, the civil war, oral histories, the presidency and special event coverage about our nations history. Enjoy American History tv now and every weekend on cspan3. American history tv begins now with historians examining the morale of u. S. Soldiers during the last two years of the vietnam war. This discussion was part of an allday conference titled manpower and morale after tet. Taking place at the university of kansas, this is about 50 minutes. I wanted to also start by setting the stage a little bit. We called this manpower morale after tet. And that suggests by titling it manpower and morale after tet rather than manpower and morale in the u. S. War in vietnam, that something changed. And in the months and the