Transcripts For CSPAN3 U.S.-China Economic Security Review Commission Panel 3 20240714

The u. S. And China Economic Security Review Commission held a hearing to examine the current relations between the United States and china. This portion event included a Panel Discussion looking at chinas relationship with taiwan and hong kong. This is one hour and 40 minutes. Good afternoon. Id like to welcome our third panel that will explore relationships we will start with miss ms. Bonnie glaser shes published wildly in academic journals. As well as Media Outlets. And we will hear from dr. Lin. Her commentary on the political economy of Greater China appears in english and chinese media. And we will also hear from dr. Hui. She is written on hong kong democracy movements. I ask all of the witnesses to keep your comments to seven minutes so that we can ask lots of questions which we are very good at. We will start with ms. Glaser. Thank you. For your invitation today. As you know this marks the fourth year of deteriorating relationships between the china and taiwan. At a time when it was inaugurated in may 2020 610. Since then we have seen a range of military tactics including poaching several diplomatic partners. Recently even more radically reducing the mainland tourists allowed to visit and ramping up military exercises and operations. In response to this mounting pressure we have seen the adoption of tougher rhetoric, and attempted to secure greater support from the International Community while maintaining a policy of securing the status quo. This past january we saw a major speech that was the First Comprehensive speech and emphasize that unification under one country and two systems is inevitable. Reiterating that china could use force to achieve its goals. We are in the runup to the 2020 election. And its my view that china is unlikely to take significant medical or economic actions against taiwan. They know quite well that anything really remarkable could backfire and help taiwan regain the majority. I think it is unlikely that china will take a handsoff approach. We will see continued military pressure. We have seen one flight across the centerline of the street on march 31. We can see that become the new normal. I dont think that would happen until after the election. We will continue to see flights around the island and in order to constrain the participation and i think that the biggest threat is in the form of chinese interference. We will see this in the runup to election. Im not sure that we understand what the degree of interference was in the 2016 election or even the 2018 local elections. It can discredit high in the Administration Media manipulation and even local level efforts. Theres Financial Support that goes through associations to boost his supporters and the turnout for prochina candidates. I think its important and im glad that the commission has asked me to talk about the red media in taiwan. This is a term that has been coined to highlight the Media Organization that has resulted in prochina coverage and the promotion of specific candidates that are preferred. The evidence abounds of intrusion into various Media Outlets and there have been some very good reporting that demonstrates that there have been regular payments by the Taiwan Affair Office beijing makes it no secret of the fact that they can hope to spread the communist Party Message in the taiwan. We saw that the summit earlier this year. The Standing Committee told taiwan representatives to achieve peaceful unification and that the party depends on their friends and said that they would be remembered by history once unification occurs. I will leave it to others to talk about the protests in hong kong. I know that theyre having a major impact. One of the activists joshua wong is in washington, d. C. Hoping to get the support. But they are backing away from their pledge to preserve the autonomy in taiwan. Its stirred fears about their own future. Theres a lot of anxiety about the application. And even some orders who favored the broad freedoms. And we heard the mayor say over his dead body. One country and two systems would be implemented. In the event that we end up with violence in hong kong of any kind it will have a deep and enduring impact with china. I think that goes without saying. So i dont think were heading towards a crisis, but it is high winds. Not likely to take radical measures to back them into a corner. China would certainly adopt tougher measures but i dont think it would jettison their current policy because of the reelection. Chinese competence would be bolstered if they win in the un and that would be political gridlock. I think that the benefit calculus is squeezing taiwan. And anaconda strategy. Its more stable than going to war. And i think of an independent candidate wins. There would be a period of improvement that will is worried by the majority of citizens about getting too close to beijing. That would constrain a candidate from launching political talks are taking other measures that would provoke a domestic crisis. The Tipping Point might come later in 5 to 10 years is the chinese dont get what they want. May become less competent and more impatient. Perhaps they make an assessment to prevail against the u. S. And then we could see them miscalculation by beijing. They may believe that there is a window of opportunity to resolve the problem once and for all. I have laid out a few specific policy recommendations one is to assist taiwan in the efforts to counter chinese interference and politics and society. We have heard u. S. Officials talk about it. I havent heard much detail. It would be great to see if it is enough. Compelling social Media Companies to notify users if they are interacting with accounts that are suspect to be foreign and state actors. Its important for social media to have easy ways to report fake accounts. Taiwan is doing a little bit by itself but this is a larger prom. Im sure someone has talked about the need to have a Free Trade Agreement with taiwan. These are all interlinked. And the one area that i think this administration has fallen short is the absence of promoting closer economic ties with taiwan. We also have two bills before congress. Countering the Chinese Government and the political influence operations act of 2019. I think passage of those would be very important. Thank you for this opportunity. Thank you. Dr. Lin . But i want to thank the commission and staff for the opportunity to address the critical issue of chinas relationship with hong kong where ive spent the last 13 weeks. Today more than ever the fate of taiwan is tied together and the gap has never been wider. My comments will focus on the dilemmas that china proposes for taiwan and hong kong. And the indications for the United States. First taiwan is caught in the high income trap. Low growth, stagnant ways to wages. And whitening inequalities. These are hard to resolve for any highend economy and for taiwan they are further complicated by debate. If they present a way out of this. Many people believe that relying on china is a viable solution. Others worry that further expanding ties will compromise the distinctive identity and values including democracy and freedom the previous government tried to stimulate growth by integrating more closely with china. Overdependence on china fails to produce higher growth and led to greater inequality and a political backlash that led to the election. And since then in 2016, the administration has been trying to economically diversify away from china. But dependence has deepened and trade and investment has continued to rise. Investment has fallen but not dramatically. The dilemma intensifies as beijing has offered sweeter carrots and brandishes bigger sticks. Incentives include allowing taiwan residents to live with the same rules as a residence. And half 1 million taiwan residents went to work and it china forming a brain drain. Beijing has used restrictions on tourism as a coercive tool. Reducing tours by 80 . This is in addition to applying power to the media to influence domestic politics, to reduce excessive reliance on china they have initiated the Southbound Policy which encourages trade with taiwan this policy has shown positive early results. With positive trade and people to people exchange. The estimated growth of 2 will be the highest among high income economies in asia. Unemployment is at a 19 year low. The incentive to lure businesses back to taiwan has been more successful than expected. The diversification policies has been affected by the tariffs. In four months taiwan residents will choose a candidate. In a progressive incumbent that will strengthen taiwan. Many fear that reelecting the president will be detrimental to relations with china and to taiwans economic prospect. Others believe that electing him will risk the security and threaten their identity. Hong kong faces a similar dilemma. With important implications for taiwan. Is a resident of hong kong since 1992. I have seen the distinctive identity being eroded. Although hong kong thrives , the high income trap is much worse in terms of inequality and affordability. But they want protest against integration in a 2014. The recent protest are beyond economics. And the focus on defending core values such as freedom and democracy. Effective Solutions Must provide ways to have a greater voice in the future. It is an International Center for the world and china. But more importantly it is home to 7 Million People who have a limited role in the government. In both places, surveys show there is dwindling support for the political outcomes. The parallels between hong kong and taiwan are growing. Many hong kong representatives see them as a representative for their future. The majority have supported the protest since it began in june. The insistence on reunification has become unacceptable for taiwan. Half 1 million young taiwan residents will cast their votes for the first time in 2020. Their vote could have a Significant Impact on the election. So what does this mean for the United States . It is a litmus test for american ability , the United States should help taiwan defend the values of the challenges of the high income trap so that china doesnt appear that to be the sole solution. They must increase their appeal who otherwise feel that they have no choice but to work more closely with china. Hong kong was also a canary in the coal mine. The United States must continue to closely monitor the situation as required by the hong kong act, they should be carefully targeted as to not add to the hardship faced by ordinary hong kong people. And finally the United States must demonstrate the attractiveness of the market economy. Having taught in multiple locations in the last 18 months and engage in nonprofits and in trip inertia. I believe that the United States should encourage professional exchanges with those places. Especially with the Younger Generation to further this and. In conclusion, hong kongs economy is being diluted and that democracy is threatened by its own shortcomings and efforts to undermine it. How well the United States responds will be an indicator of americas commitment to defend the shared values. Thank you. Thank you. Very much dr. Lin. Dr. Hui . Thank you. For giving a voice to hong kong. The hong kong situation is personable. Waking up to chinas aggressive policies. I think that International Service will pay more attention than in early hong kong reckoning. With a high degree of autonomy. Under the one country two systems model. Many people argue that beijing has not ruled out the industries. This morning my friend testified that chinas approach to hong kong has remained soft and moderate. I disagree. We should not define them merrily by beijing rolling out. It also is how theyve controlled them through violence. In order to crowd the protest they have deployed the Hong Kong Police without rolling out the chinese troops. Without formally declaring an emergency and they have wielded tear without creating bad optics. The u. S. Congress and government should broaden monitoring efforts. The protest started with a call to withdraw the extradition bill which wouldve required hong kong to turn over offenders to Mainland China. The bill was suspended on june 15 and refused for 2. 5 months to withdraw the bill until early this morning. Its too little too late. For 2. 5 months in refusing to address protesters. The authorities relied on hong kongs police and this policy has coopted asias finest police. When i was a little girl every time we went out my mom would tell me if you ever get separated from mommy just go ask the aunt police are uncle police. That was a level of trust. So what happens today . The police would randomly beat up people. We have seen that across global tv. Its not even obvious who the police answer two today. When the police was referred to by the inspector is association the Central Government and the Current Affairs office. We should crackdown on violent acts and we support Hong Kong Police and Judicial Authority in doing the job. Beijing has stepped up their white terror campaign. The rest of my test money will highlight these key points. Its a very bloody crackdown led by Hong Kong Police. The first is to restrict the freedoms to refuse to issue a permit. And then the police have arrested more than 100 people sense in june, charging many with Unlawful Assembly and various crimes like writing, assaulting police and possessing weapons. It includes firstaid workers the police hit protesters with batons, peppers spray and rubber bullets. The first bloody sunday happened on august 11. More bloody arrests have happened since. Theyve accused the Hong Kong Police of using weapons that are primitive by international standards. But what is not visible to reporters and bystanders is even more disturbing. Many of the detained have been denied access to lawyers they also have stopped contacting their families and some of them were brutally beaten in Detention Centers that they came out with broken bones and injuries. We dont know what goes on inside the police station. Its striking to see that a lot of doctors and nurses have a slogan that says Hong Kong Police attempted murder hong kong citizens. Xray showed that there were no bones and tendons connected. Medical workers have complained about inhumane procedures. The emphasis will not allowed with police appraisal. They arrested the suspected protester the medical staff was restricted from calling family members on the behalf of patients. Police officers are suspected of colluding with criminal gangs who have assaulted reporters and protesters. The enforcement of the law has turned hong kong into a police state , even a mafia state. The second point hong kong has taken emergency measures since september since september 30. August 31 as an important day. It was a six anniversary of the decision to deny universal suffrage. The day before the Police Arrested known legislators and activists. And to further intimidate the public they imposed a total pan on a peaceful march. The police took us to severe measures. Likened it to the apartheid in south africa. The police also storming to the Prince Edward station. The early scenes were caught on lifestream and videos. They were ordered to leave the station and medical staff was not allowed to rescue people for 2. 5 hours. The police acted more violently than any notorious gangsters did before. Now many progovernment voices have been advocating the decision to end the protest. In that discriminatory beating up passengers inside train stations. Many reporters are covering police abuses. Denying medical workers access. Arresting social markers. And breaking the bones of the arrested. The Hong Kong Government has adopted emergency measures even though they havent declared emergency the third point is a terror to punish middleclass professionals. The protests have had extended societal support. 1 Million People on june 9, 2 million on june 16, and another 1. 8 million on august 18. Theyve organize their own separate protest. Many professional individuals and many more. The police cannot lock up everyone. It has raised the cause of supporting the protest. In this mornings panel theres been a lot of talk about obtaining objectives. Beijing is forced to choose including members who protest. It has led to the identification of employees who are advertising daily. Teachers are targeted. Theres been talk that teachers that are patriotic to the mall. Other should be fired. And the main tv station has been censored. They no longer belong to the hong kong people. Because the government does not belong to hong kong people. This combination of bloody crackdowns has only strengthened resolve of the hong kong people. They see the struggle is the last stand. Because they are losing the most basic form of a freedom. The freedom from fear, being beaten by officers and getting fired for saying go hong kong. We dont know how the protest will unfold . What theyve achieved is to fully expose the lie. If there is anything left its the people of hong kong. Its expanding the freedoms at a huge cost. The worlds democracy should stand with them. They call on the u. S. Congress to pass the hong kong human rights democracy act. Calling for the condemnation of abuses. Hong kong people have called for the right to purchase. They should not have their limbs broken in protest. They should not be denied access to injured and not be arrested for possessing scissors. They call for attention to humanitarian concerns , they should not be arrested for providing social services to protesters. Thank you so much. Thank you. Compelling testimony. Thank you. Very much for all of your testimony. I have a few different questions. It seems in taiwan and hong kong that young people are growing up with an identity different. Im curious when we talk about the brain drain. These are young people who have grown up to expect taiwan freedoms. How are they handling the restriction on speech is it changing their sense of identity . And the rights that they should have . Select all take that one. For young people, i have been writing about the similarity. Very few people identify with the term but its very clear. 80 support the protest in hong kong, relative to other generations as much higher. There is a generation that understands each other and they want freedom and individual expression in terms of economic and political rights. In terms of taiwan lets take a moment and look at it from beijings point of view. Its an utter disappointment. For 30 years taiwan is a land of surveys and polls. Most of them will show that for 30 years there has been a decline as people who came from china died and a new generation changed. It shows more and more people say that they are from taiwan and china. It is moved to the majority of people who say that they are from taiwan , dont call them anything else but that. For young people in many of the individual surveys. That number is zero. 0 actually the pollsters with anyone under 29 years old. 0 say they are chinese. So how do you govern and unify a place that has no one the things they are chinese . To come back to this point about the 30 year trend. In the last four years theres been a remarkable improvement. And that is why it has emboldened beijing to take certain measures even before the hong kong protests that have led to a backlash in taiwan. And for the last four years. Theres been a sweeter carrot and bigger Stick Campaign that is led to an increase in taiwanese who say lets have education eventually. It doesnt mean that lets roll under the way of other countries somehow that is an improvement. I think everybody was quite optimistic that there was improvement after 30 years of going the other way. In the last 13 weeks, with hong kong protest it is all come back. And midyear this year the polls went right back to the original. There is a low single digit number that claim there chinese. Unless 2 of people who support unification. This trend is much more focused on the young people who think on the other side. s. How do you think of beijing reads that data . Its a very disappointing. I would just say to complement my colleagues. They know the polls better than i do. Its not that they dont see. I think its a failure to comprehend. All the commissioners see the same paperwork that we do. But they draw different conclusions. So for the past 30 years theyve decided with all of the data that they will chorus more. It has come to the point where hong kong is the ultimate litmus test. Lets put a moment to focus on hong kong. The situation is not like taiwan. The number has been steady and gradual. Hong kong was more patriotic since 2008. It has dramatically changed so that young people dont believe they are chinese. And they do not support the one country, two system. The confidence is at an all time low and i think that victoria can say a few words about what is happening in hong kong they blame it on the teachers. They believe that teachers who have been polluting the young minds, and the way to go is to impose the mandatory education. They did rebel against the education when he was 14 years old. And that over time more loyalists have been employed. And with this current generation so many of them are willing to die. When youre arrested and charged for writing you can go to jail for 10 years. They are willing to sacrifice their lives to defend what we have grown up with. Just a few days ago they said that the hong kong Teachers Union is a line. Because they want democracy. There should be a lot more Patriotic Education and a lot of the teachers should be screened. Its a very scary move even though we dont see any violence. If i could add a brief point. I think theres a Silver Lining in beijing not losing hope in unification with taiwan. So far we have seen the Foreign Policy in so many areas change. When it comes to taiwan we havent seen a change in the overall strategy. They believe that it could bring them to a goal of unification if they believe that that approach has been a complete failure. That is the day that we have to worry that they might decide to use force. Try to use other tactics like incentives they might to see a spike in some of the polls. Its not a bad thing. But thats just my perspective. But i apologize i didnt get to the heart of the question. What is it that a young person does. Every day there are young people who think to themselves should they go to the protest . If the picture is taken of me will i be able to work , many of the older generation will say no , you will never be able to work in a mainstream institution. You see all these people on the street risking their lives. Their future is china or nothing this is the same situation in taiwan. But its much more of the educated people if youre talking to people that are thinking about this as a compromise. If europe phd student in taiwan you have no hope of teaching in california. Its likely because your english is not so good. And also because you have a degree from a local university and they will offer you three times what you would get as a professor. There are no vacancies. Its every day all the time in the working and middle class among intellectuals. I want to add to that. I think its a very good point. We want to give beijing somehow. People are rebelling against the encroachment. Essentially there defending the last threat of a freedom. If they can stop encroaching on hong kong they have said this trend in hong kong has changed a lot. People were actually okay. Its because of the increasing encroachment over time that is driven the young people to the wall. Hong kong people are not asking for independence. Theyre happy to keep everything the way they are. Beijing has been changing the status quote. That is the hope to keep them apart mr. Lewis . Thank you. Very much. Theres great courage exhibited by the people in hong kong. I would like to ask the question. When hong kong turns back what is the expectation, and what will occur after the 50 years . There is a taiwan candidate is the major shareholder of people making apple products. Has anything happened to disturb that relationship . And will people be able to move to taiwan . And can they be trained to do the work the people are doing in china . In 1984 when the uk and china issued the british declaration. Hong kong people were mistreated. Our future was being negotiated away. At the same time its important to keep in mind for the older generation, because you had no choice, it really writes the very liberal guarantees of all freedom. They complain about foreign interference , they travel around the world, and that you should treat hong kong as a special place. Thats why they issued the Hong Kong Policy act. Today some people would say that you are stupid why would you accept their promises. There was no choice the way you want to believe that that everything is going to be fine. At this point theres not even the freedom from fear. This is the fighting for the future. And we will not give up. In answer to your question about terry the founder of fox come. Thats going to be the deadline for filing. Theres obviously growing signs that he may run. The vast majority remains in Mainland China. There is some discussion of moving some of those operations to india. Theres been some talk about a plant in wisconsin which i gather is not going hire as many workers as he originally said. My guess is that if he were to win the election in taiwan. That those organizations would stay in and china. There are five major Semi Conductor companys. They brought some of their operations back to taiwan. There was only a small portion of those operations. Many were skeptical that they could accommodate the entire set of factories and operations. And its not so much because taiwan people are not skilled. You may have some labor shortages. Theres also the issues of the shortages of land, water, and electricity. And the government in taiwan is doing a lot to address these. I saw a statistic this morning and something that i read that forecast that based on the companies that are likely to bring a portion of their operations back to taiwan , this will increase the jobs by about 40,000. Which is a drop in the bucket. If you brought all of the operations back. That might be impossible for taiwan to absorb i dont know that they have that much land to accommodate foxcom. I havent heard anything about the intention to pull all the operations out of Mainland China. And i would be surprised if he did. This he still have access to go to china today . Yes. If i could add to my distinguished panel. I think theres something very important to address. In the next few months the United States will have to provide leadership in a key moment, this is important. There has meant to be a hope, an extension not an expiration so what you do in a place where Property Rights are everything . How do you by property without landuse rights, thats only a leasehold that doesnt extend beyond 10 years. We dont know what the expirations. Its happening every minute of every day. So for Property Rights what is that mean . And lets not forecast whether or not terry will run in the next four days , as we invested in shanghai and semiconductors. Is a very interesting character. He said it was a chinese investment. Next thing you know hes trying to be the president of taiwan. I often say to people and they asked. They ask if i know him and the private sector, mask a philosophical question. What is in it for him . What could be a better job for a billionaire the to be the president of taiwan . What could semi from beijing want more than that . He is a smartest man. These are people that are very powerful. One thing that i want to say is theres an unusual poll among people they could bring economic dynamic opportunities to taiwan. They are not resolvable. And there is an illusion that this highend economy can turn out jobs. So to the third point on an economic level can the return to taiwan be possible . Most businesses know. The returning of 16 billion due to tax incentives because of the terror terrorist war making it very uneconomical to export from a china. Businesses are coming back. But that is not the business that he is in. I did want to thank you. And express my personal admiration for what is going on in taiwan. A terrific presentation. Im going to ask you to venture into the realm of opinion. Im trying to think if we were the Standing Committee and we have heard all of these things that have made the idea of one country , two systems seem like an impossible dream for taiwan. What might we do . What kind of a different formulation might we come up with to make reunification more attractive . Saying that one country to system process or formula has outlived its usefulness . Its time to jump ship and come up with a new idea . What might that idea be . But thats a great question. Im going to start and i think my other panelists will have their opinion as well when president xi jinping gave his speech the one thing that struck me was that he was offering taiwan the opportunity to sit down and talk about and collectively decide what their version of the one country , two systems would be. It didnt resonate in taiwan. We understand why. If you talk to people on the mainland they will say that it was a big carrot. Could he go further . Absolutely thats my view in 2011 i remember the head of the Taiwan Affairs office said that China Remains open to a different formula and version for unification. And that it does not have to be the 1992 consensus to have a basis for talks we basically heard the same thing from the senior chinese official earlier this year in a private setting that i was at. When the mayor said that we are part of one family. That was good enough to have the talks it would be good enough if he was president but it shows you that there is potential for flexibility. Ultimately what china wants is a notion that the two sides belong to something together. Its not taiwan being part of the prc. Its both sides belonging to china. I always believe that that door is still open. We may have closed a little bit. Hes talking tougher. One country , two systems. He inherited that as well. The two sides are one family. People of talked about one country and two governments and the important part is the one something. I would not rule out that there could be some flexibility to formulate this in a different way. But what taiwan could do under that formulation where would have autonomy is something that has to be negotiated. You will remember that john simon told taiwan that they could have their own military what else are they going to take back from what they offer . And how much of that offer was ever real we do not know . But im guess im not so optimistic in the original one country , two systems. How long this is to have his own army . We have never been back to that formulation. I think where we are today is so far away from the ideal of a one country , to system. If hong kong was to work out it was the best example of the rule in the peaceful rising china. I think that hong kong is really at the linchpin and as i said in my remarks its a litmus test for china just as taiwan is a litmus test for leadership theres a major test for the major powers. And i want to be a little more. Go. I think realistically i dont see where this is going i have said this often to different groups and people who have made their voices heard. China has to accept multiple identities and different values. It is a vast land with many religions, cultures, many people who have different aspirations and values. And the one thing that is really hard to do even with individuals in china understand that its the right thing to do is a Chinese Government believes that money can solve everything. And it simply cannot. Todays protest when they say the hong kong protest against this agreement is all about money. I tell them know. If it is it wouldve already been solved. And that is the issue. Throwing money at problems only takes care of things temple larry lee. Its a difference of core values and different systems that i think eventually people have to choose they will have to say is there a difference . Theres a very big difference. And come back to the original question. If you go live and work in china do you end up going back to china and voting for the party that advocates unification . The result is no. It is been unsuccessful and i think beijing is trying to find a better way as well. That is the Silver Lining that the president will find a better way and be courageous to implement this because nobody else in the past has been courageous enough to take the soft approach and be inclusive , to want to go for values that young people care about. Freedom, justice, equality, environmental sustainability that hong kong and taiwan use care about. With the identity that they want a chinese person to uphold. The model could work. The reason it has failed is because of the practices. When you look at these young people what kind of young people . The young person arrested is 12 years old. A lot of them are teenagers. The first question i asked my students is what did you do this summer . Did you go have fun vacation . Basketball . Hong kong people say why would you want to risk going to jail or risk getting beaten and having broken bones. Why would they do that . Because theyve been pushed to the wall. They feel they have no future and this is why they are resisting. And it has brought about more and more fears. I would say go back to the basic law and honor these promises. If you honor the promises taiwan will look at it and say its not too bad. And then they will say they signed all these agreements and if they can honor that agreement and the promises to hong kong people the rest of the world will treat china differently. Its a limited test case for the behavior of beijing around the world. Commissioner . Thank you. I think we all deeply admire what people are doing in both countries. We are appreciative. Let me turn to a question. Bonnie you talked about two bills that you thought were important. Theres been no discussion about the armed sales, no discussion about Administration Policy other than the two bills. What else will congress do . What advice would you give to the United States to be helpful to taiwan and hong kong people . One of the things that i emphasized is digging into the question of what the United States is doing to prevent chinese interference in their political and social system and the media . I know that secretary of defense has said publicly that we are doing things with the taiwan to prevent interference i do not know the extent of that and whether that United States is doing all that they can do. My concern is that if we have a close election in taiwan and we get a substantial number of citizens who think that the outcome of the election was illegitimate. We will have a crisis in taiwans democracy. And we should not wait until it happens. It could be more likely if we have a third candidate the jumps into the race. Anyone candidate is going to not win the majority. This could be a major crisis for taiwan. Identifying what is being done , and where the money is flowing. I think they have pretty good Law Enforcement capabilities. But whenever i talk to senior people they say that understandably because of their history with martial law they dont want to take measures to crack down in a nondemocratic way. Their answer seems to be Greater Transparency and that may not be enough. I hope that we can do enough to work with them so that we can prevent any major degree of interference that ends up being decisive just as a quick question so we can get to the others. Do social Media Companies play a huge role there . The facebook, twitter and etc. Is that something that we can do to make a difference . There are two major social Media Companies and taiwan. Facebook used by the younger people. And something called the line which is used by older people. Is at a taiwanese platform . Its a japanese. When it comes to social media those are the two major companies. Recently facebook has agreed to remove some fake accounts. But in taiwan just tracking the number of postings and pages theres one very good report that wasnt done by a journalist how the day that the candidate for mayor said he was going to run for mayor. There was a page that was created by people who are from Mainland China. The argument that is made in that article. Which is more than circumstantial evidence. That is absolutely decisive. That a lot of the individuals creating that image may have been due to support from china. Thats very worrisome. Those are the two Media Companies to get such a good question. Im trying to see how i can answer it in a very short time. First of all i agree with everything that bonnie said. I think the problem of democracy is its very hard to do with the nondemocratic organization institution. We know that best in the United States. Taiwan is facing unbelievable cyber warfare. It has been a big issue in 2018. And the Midterm Election for mayor. Some people have mentioned that. And bonnie has written about that extensively in her testimony. I think trying to make sure that election is fair is important to look like the United States is not intervening. And this also goes to hong kong. Big part of the allegation is that uk and the u. S. Is behind everything. Its nice to blame it on other people but there is a truth to that and we need to avoid looking like we prefer any candidate. I believe that big difference between the western liberal order is the focus on process as opposed to outcome. I think we can uphold affair process so that hong kong and taiwanese residents can have a future. One thing i want to say is the Current Administration arms sales since you talked about it. I think its important to not make hong kong and taiwanese residents not feel like they are upon. A lot of people say to the young people youre just being played by americans and by the american government. One of the sciences when arms sales go forward and backward. And they say this is just for the United States to get something for the terra four. I think is a second panel talked about it. Separating security to not link issues is very important and to make sure that the taiwanese can defend themselves, and the second point is on hong kong. I think congress should do everything they can to make sure that the joint declaration is adhered to. And that autonomy is not eroded. There are many things happening right now. I believe that if u. S. Legislators can do everything they can to hold china. I believe execution will be very difficult. Many of the things being considered like financial sanctions requires the United States to have the ability to find out who is doing what and to hold people accountable which is nearly impossible. Most people do not have assets in their own name. And i think that the practicality is very important. Otherwise we are just legislating while we are looking like we are just upholding Democratic Institutions beijing likes to say that they warn the u. S. Against meddling in their internal affairs. The interesting thing is that the beijing government is very responsive to the United States. So why he refused to withdraw the bill. Just this morning i suspect it has much to do with todays hearing that was convened. At the same time why when it was announced that it would have something to do the House Speaker nancy pelosi said she was going to fast track a way to push down the human rights act. This morning it was highlighted that china has benefited from chinas special status. And its key to how the rest of the world thinks. International actions in the congress can take a lot of actions to help hong kong people. And it may be difficult but even the talk of it has convinced the beijing politics to worry that their assets will be ceased. There is a deterrence. And at the same time when it comes to the administration i was very frustrated when President Donald Trump said early on that the president had been responding to the protest in the fairway. And then he connected that to a trade deal. Hong kong should not be treated as a bargaining chip. If you use hong kong as a bargaining chip than if there is a trade deal then hong kong will be sacrificed. Hong kong people stand for democracy and freedom. They should be supported. And also the same time it is good for the world. Hong kong is an international city. What happens in hong kong affects not just the United States but the rest of the world. I jump in briefly on the arms sales question. I agree that the United States should not use taiwan as upon. And i dont see any evidence between arms sales and the u. S. China trade talks. I think selling arms to taiwan is not putting a thumb on the scale of any particular candidate and it should not be seen as a weighing in on the side. This administration came in with a commitment to normalize the process of arms sales to taiwan. That is long overdue. There have been sales made before and i do not think we should connect the issue of arms sale requests and approvals in that process with the political schedule in a taiwan. I personally am glad to see some progress made towards that normalization. Thank you. I disagree on the role of the United States in influencing the withdrawal of the extradition bill. I think it has more to do with the millions of people turning out on the street consistently and refusing to go back home. I also think it is not over. I think the next issue is a much more difficult one of universal suffrage. There will be no permanent change between now and 50 years unless there has been universal suffrage that had been falsely promised and dangled and withdrawn over the years and i suspect its a very dangerous thing for beijing to do for itself to offer universal suffrage to Chinese People nearby. We may be a entering a phase in the protest that are even more difficult and dangerous than they have been up to this point. Somewhat experienced in this country with protests, having spent my entire life doing it. The universal suffrage question is not easily solved and whether or not young folks , my gut is theyre not going be satisfied. And perhaps it should not be satisfied until they get universal suffrage. I actually do not believe that the United States has a great deal of influence here. Especially influence that exceeds the people of hong kong themselves at the moment. Thank you i absolutely agree that the hong kong peoples courage and persistent despite the Police Brutality that has poured into the streets is very important. And i want to say that u. S. Actions matter. At the same time i think that the world is paying attention to what is going on in hong kong because the people of hong kong have persisted. The only thing that has preserved is the determination of the hong kong people. Theyre going to continue to fight. I agree that hong kong will continue to fight. Their efforts because the police to become so brutal. They are taking less risky positions. Arranging and coming together to yell out protest slogans at the 10 pm so that you have echoes of dissent going through all the neighborhoods. At the same time i also want to say that the reopening of discussions of universal suffrage will be difficult. But at the same time if i were to advise, beijing has done a good job of instilling patriotism among mainline china. They dont agree with hong kong. They dont really care about having democracy in china. Is that is the case then they should be assured that you dont have to make hong kong safe for china because theyve done a good job of insulating hong kong from china. My questions is am i correct in thinking that universal suffrage is going to be the next big issue on the street . Absolutely. I think is a victorious said the compromise came too late to little. Thats the headline today. I think today in this panel we didnt even talk about the fugitive law. The extradition law. Thats a case in point. That is irrelevant people have gone beyond that. And they realize that the one country two system is under threat. I fully agree with you. Whether there are people involved, from the bottom of their heart they want a different future for themselves. Thank you. Very much i want to think the three of you. What is happening in hong kong is magnificent and i hope it works. It gives everybody hope those that believe in freedom. My question is about taiwan. Youve talked about polls in taiwan. When i look at the relationship between taiwan and the mainland how far out on a limb that beijing is on this i guess my question is do you think the people of taiwan are willing to do the equivalent of what is happening in hong kong right now. That would be a scenario like a confrontation that begins to escalate and the mainland threatens if you do not do this , we are going to attack. With missiles that will hit you. Do you think that they are willing to say okay you may be able to destroy us but were not giving up . Which is what they are doing in hong kong now. One of the reasons i ask. I think that kind of willingness is the thing that would leave the rest of the world led by the United States to say no. If you attack them were going to help. Is there any way of knowing what they would do under the circumstances i think bonnie would have a lot to say im going start briefly. I think we are seeing it. Many of the taiwanese believe they are choosing between all odds. Its very important for the legislative election. Its not just about the president. They will turn over the same time next year. And its very important if either party were to gain legislative and executive control. It would be very important for the future of the regions stability and what kind of a future we are looking at. I think a lot of people are saying if you were to vote for the incumbent president we will see war. As we know already there have been more appealing than ever before. It is already happening every day. Unlike hong kong the one country two system is a system. They have always lived on the edge and every day they say we are facing a test and its going to be a choice. And a lot of people feel that if you vote for the president that the Economic Future will be cut off and the security may be at risk. Even though the other side says youll be risking taiwan security if you vote for the kmt. I think they focus on risking security because china will be looking closely at using force if they were to come into power. So if i understand correctly the election of the results will tell us a lot about the answer to my question . If you look in 1995 and 96 before the election there will be more action. Lets hope that that is not the case. I believe it is very important for beijing. The test we are talking about in hong kong as victorian i have both said. The hong kong people were not happy that they were taking it one day at a time. Most of them are first and Second Generation chinese. Its very different. The taiwanese were cut off for decades from china. So the extent of being a hong kong resident has developed in the last few years where is taiwan has a much longer history. There still many elections. In every election they believe theyre showing the world that we are making a choice despite the fact that it could hurt us. That is the one thing that i want to say. And the second is in terms of the struggle. I think for the taiwanese its a bit different. They did it in 2014 the same year as the umbrella movement. Started in march with the sunflower movement. With students boycotted going to school for three weeks in order to reverse the ratification of a Service Trade agreement. They have done it and they have shown the world. But i think its an excellent twopart question. What is the determination of people in taiwan to defend themselves and what is the perception in Mainland China of that determination theres really a third piece is what the u. S. Perception is as well. If we are going to come to their aid we need to know that. I wish that i had data point. Something that i could look at that would tell me the determination of people in taiwan to defend themselves. They live under a very serious threat from Mainland China that has only grown over the last couple of decades. The amount of information about that in the media is virtually nothing. Its not part of their education. Im glad to see the military opening bases. Once a year they invite the public into interact. Any ruling party in taiwan. They want to keep that threat on the side and not talk to the people about it. Its not a good idea. The recruitment is improving to an all volunteer force. But the demographic challenges are going make it difficult for them to build a capable military. Their conscription is down. They have a fourmonth service. What do you learn in four months. I talk to young people , they learn how to take apart and put together a gun. I think they also learned how to shoot it. I think that the trend line is that is you get more younger people in taiwan. They will feel like the people of hong kong that they really value their freedoms, that theyve never known anything else. And they would be determined to fight for them. I think taiwan is very different from hong kong. The circumstances are very different. Im not certain. I want the u. S. And taiwan to do enough so that they believe that they are determined to defend itself. A growing problem that we have given chinas growing axis in denying is that figure that people used to throw around that if you hold out for two weeks that the United States will be there is a long gone. And that the figure that i hear people discussing is about three months. I dont know how reliable that figure is. We need taiwan to be determined to defend itself. And whatever we can do for them in peace time to help bolster that and the perception of that is incredibly important. I have a couple of questions let me start by saying we were emailing over the weekend about the nature of the protest and what has been so impressive his how innovative they are. And how when the the Police Deploy a tactic they modify what they are doing and they come back in a new format. Its been truly impressive in the scale and the commitment to freedom and democracy. When you watch the protesters at the airport. And then the metro was a shutdown. And streams of cars showed up to pick up the students. It was reminiscent of the efforts made when there was of boycott of the system in the south. Its innovative and very reminiscent of historical struggles for democracy and freedom. I applaud the courage of everyone who is speaking out. I also share the view that the United States taking a very public posture supporting what is happening is crucial to democracy. I also believe that its important to stick to the law. The basic law includes a language that is very specific about the citizens of hong kong being in a position to take legal action against their officials if their rights are violated. My first question is is there any effort underway to take that legal action. Its one thing for the United States to sanction but its another thing for the citizens of taiwan to take legal action when there rights have been breached. And the second part of the issue , i noticed yesterday that agnes 01 her case in the courts, and may or may not have the opportunity to run. That seemed like a faint glimmer of hope in the sanctity of the judiciary system. Do feel that the courts may mitigate the sum of the damage done by the over 1000 arrests. Those are my two questions. Because a lot of these arrests are in the early stage and essentially they are still trying to stand in line to wait for the hearing. Already we have massive lawyers staging rights. And even prosecutors have come to denounce the massive arrests. The problem is that beijing has appointed all these loyalists. So the secretary of justice is one of those loyalists. And for months before the bill was suspended kept saying that all of these lawyers dont need these guys. You just dont understand the extradition bill. And is soon to send the bill was extended theres a turnaround. Its been ruled by the loyalists. The doj she needs to do babysitting. By more loyalists as well. Thats why early on the early government asked for a retrial they would be Given Community service , and then they would say no these people have to be locked up. The hope we can have is that lawyers, and the prosecutors are willing to sacrifice the job to speak for justice. Another thing that i want to say is the victory in the fact that the judge ruled on the technicality that she was never asked to defend herself if they ask these people where do you stand for do you support the basic law that is tandem into independence. And then they may still be disqualified. The other thing that i think so much that you are giving so much attention to what is going on in hong kong. All the experience of the trains being canceled, and the massive amount of people with their own cars picking up the protesters. It shows how Popular Support is to will help these protesters. In the face of Police Brutality. Were not just talk about 10 years in jail. Some of these people will never recover from the broken bones and brain bleeding. They have to avoid the Police Brutality. For some people using boycotts and and supporting pro democracy businesses. At the same time that pro democracy employers and young people have platforms to bring them together. Essentially there are ways to establish an alternative economy. Then the protest can continue. And the people of hong kong are not going to give up , they really understand why there is no autonomy. The crux of the issue is that hong kong people do not have their own government. But i would like to add to that that the commissioner you are right. The big test of hong kong autonomy is going to be at a judicial level. Hong kong has a sick sister catered and deep bench in terms of the legal profession. Many people have come out to say berrys fair statements. And their very just and standing on the side of the hong kong people. Whether this will erase the fact that so many young people whove been elected have been disqualified. This is a chance if you want to go on the optimistic side for a Hong Kong Government to show that they have autonomy, and that they are not intervening in the judicial proceedings and for beijing to go forward and adjust way. In the last few years the Judicial Branch has had an erosion of autonomy. Im hoping that its not a victory as much is something long overdue and technical. I think if the Hong Kong Government were to be interested in reconciliation. Universal suffrage is going to be very difficult. But the first step is that the courts and judges can provide some adjusted ruling for the 1000 riders that have been arrested. I live five minutes from the start of the protest. And thats where i live. There are children and families going to these protest. And people providing firstaid that had been arrested. Their passports have been taken , they cannot leave. And many of them are in the early stages. So many of them have been using the same lawyer that the lawyer doesnt have time to take on new cases. Its a big issue that is unfolding. Commissioner . Thank you. Very much. Im sorry that i missed your oral testimony. But i read your testimony and i appreciate all that you have laid out. One question. For ms. Glaser. You noted event on march 21. And perhaps you discusses in your oral testimony. I invite you to speculate a little bit on this event. I was in taiwan not long after and had some private discussions with leaders. And it occurred to me , im asking for your feedback, that this could be an inflection point, or the beginning of a new phase in the course of efforts in the military space. The unique features, the public taunting of taiwans ability to respond. And you note the presence statement in response to what that Taiwan Air Force will do in the future. The initiative is completely with beijing. And the variations of how they can undertake similar types of actions in the future put taiwan completely on the defensive unless they have an opportunity to change the dynamic. And that really brings into consideration the concerns for the United States how to manage the risk escalation. Is this a new development or incremental. And water some potential responses we might consider . Great question. I recently had somebody asked me if taiwan was more concerned about the farmers and fighters or this particular episode on march 31. On the one hand circumventing activities and naval activities are becoming more persistent and routine. And the event that we are talking about so far as a oneoff. We do not know if this is going to become part of the new normal. I remember being in a meeting in new york where Taiwan Affairs offices and scholars from china had different theories as to what triggered that particular action . The fact that that crossing that took place in the southern part of the midline. It hadnt happened in 20 years. And yet there was no agreement from the chinese side as to what exactly triggered that response. It led me to believe that this was planned on the chinese side that they were looking for perhaps anything that they could retroactively blame it on. They are doing new things. There being more creative and that is the most provocative thing that we have seen in the military space. You can look at other things that they are doing. Pressure on Multinational Companies we have seen the change that was demanded in the airlines on their websites with something they had not done before. I wonder if they have gone out to different parts of their system and said come up with ways we can use coercion more effectively. Against taiwan. I am worried about that. If we look specifically at that march 31 episode, we know taiwan scrambled and intercepted the fighters. If it does become a more common event, then the risk increases of some kind of accident in the Taiwan Strait that we do not want to see. Part of the toughest part of your question is what do we do about it . Certainly one thing we can do is to privately communicate to the chinese how dangerous that is. And i think there are times when we tell the chinese something that they are doing that is really beyond the bounds and beyond the pale. That we do not want to see. That it is just too dangerous. Taiwan can find ways to communicate that as well. I understand that the u. S. Recently, i believe it was two months ago, had an aircraft that flew along the midline of the straight, he was not a fighter, i think it was a taker. We are willing to defend taiwan. And we can find various ways. Of doing that. But if the chinese are determined to use coercive ways , more creative ways than they have in the past, it will pose a lot of challenges. To taiwan. And to the u. S. But thank you for the question. You had host i have a quick followup on what. Do you know if taiwan launched fighters to go check out the russians who were flying around the island . Surely, you may know. I will be there next week i will ask. I have not had the opportunity to ask but it is quite notable that the chinese side said nothing. That does not surprise me. I just wanted to know what taipei did. Im not even sure exactly how close they flew. Interesting. That the russians, just like after that, we saw the flyover as part of host that was just crummy navigation. [ laughter ] okay. And if you believe that i have Something Else i can sell you. Again, i want to associate myself with robins comments. It is been extraordinary to watch not only the courage of the people of hong kong, but the brilliance and creativity of the young people who are changing tactics in a leaderless peaceful organization. They are changing tactics and taking care of each other and even people who are not protesting. It is inspiration frankly. Around the world. Which is probably one of the things beijing does not like. Im not asking for an answer on this, since mike said, if we are the Standing Committee. One of the issues the Standing Committee really is to be thinking of, what happens after you take over a place with a population that opposes you . It is not just leading up to it and doing it. But what do you do, what would essentially be an occupying force. And taiwan. And in hong kong. I hope that they are thinking down the road, because i think it would be very messy and i dont think they would achieve the outcomes they want and doing it. The other point i wanted to make, is, we have had this whole hearing we have not talked about foreign interference. Beijing ridiculously accuses us of being the black hands behind what is going on. And me well, on college campuses, around the world, chinese mainland inspired, i will use that word, protesters, are protesting against people who are supporting hong kong. Sometimes violently. And it is very ironic that they are exercising free speech and doing that. That they want to apprise the people of hong kong of. There so many issues embedded in all of this. Economics, security, all of these freedom issues. Its a complicated situation. But part of it is quite simple which is, people are fighting for values that we hold dear in this country. They are universal values and universal human rights. We should continue to stand with them. That is very important for both places. Taiwanese have experienced that for three decades already. Anytime you hold a speech, fly, name, no title, all these rules apply to taiwanese around the world. The courage they exhibit to do what they do and to stand for the candidate they stand for and to continue to say, i will work in china, but i believe in democracy and freedom. And i will go home when i am done with this assignment. I think it is incredible. Today, with what is happening hong kong, the pressure is on all over the world. There are students, and i would say as a teacher, i have had students in hong kong for the last 10 years that basically have my classes on Mainland China, they use to coexist peacefully. The last five years have been very difficult. Three years ago we had a fight in class, fistfight, a physical fight. I think the intolerance of people who dont let others speak, i would say like you said, absolutely right. When people are accusing others of intervening, we should think first, who is actually intervening . In the biggest manifestation of this is what bonnie had said, more so than physical, which is quite limited. You think about people around the world who could be fight each other on the street, in prague and new york, it is limited. The real issue is online now. I think for the new generation, online bullying, by the chinese, is now not even being smacked people actually feel they need to defend chinese patriotic values and curtail other peoples rights. Anybody who speaks up for hong kong protesters, must be a pro independent. And likewise, taiwanese have had this issue for many decades. But of course in taiwans case, if you are to do anything, you will be taken away in terms of monetary incentives, opportunities to work, and to go to china. On that note i think i will quote my former boss and say, embellish, we are out of time. 15 minutes. And we have a business meeting. I would like to ask you for your assessment of light when i asked the earlier panel, what do you think of the willingness of the prc to enforce taiwan one word. They are not there yet. If they have to, it is a last resort. It is an option they would exercise. But i believe they have an enormous amount of this play, i dont think they have given up on peaceful unification. That could happen someday. But i personally dont think we are very close to that. Thank you. I agree with bonnie. I think it sounds better than done. I think it is important for the domestic audience in china that this message continues to be sent by somebody, the likelihood of it being said in beijing is low. Back to wrapping up. Thank you very much. I think i will finish on the note that senator mcconnell said recently which is if you did not come away with this impression, we stand with hong kong and taiwan. The commission is adjourned. The next meeting we will have will be and whirling at the annual report. Thank you very much. Testimony was compelling. Is after that a discussion on the similarities between International Terrorism and domestic violent extremism. For the House Climate Crisis Committee and the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee help this joint hearing with Young Leaders of organizations focused on combating climate change