A revolution. Thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and here with me in the studio today oh raghida bomb from lebanon who says we are witnessing a global you 3000000000 not seen since 968 and people in the middle east are finally breaking the fia gardenia also with us is rick no not from the Washington Post who argues that protesters share their frustrations with political systems that dont work in their favor but the solutions to their concerns often do for vastly underwater welcome to true younus Green Research associates at the institute for protest and social Movement Studies here in berlin who believes that the global protests. Some to line the level of frustration among younger generations about the failure of elites to come up with answers to the problems of our time and thank you all 3 for being here today once again were going to begin with raghida and you know we can make a list of countries that are taking part in these uprisings these protests you know hong kong lebannon catalonia chile for example iraq for example i could go on with an endless almost a list there are a lot of people who think that these movements in these protests have something in common that they overlap. That they have something in common i stick with that do you agree. Well they do have something in common actually more than one thing maybe firstly its led by young people and its leaderless i mean in all those places we have now or most of those places we have not seen protests led by leaders or led by people who are telling those young people to demonstrate to go on the streets and to demand each one maybe are demanding Different Things but theyre all on the streets and wanting the political elite to listen to their demands but hear that all young they all want Better Future for themselves and theyre not following any leader and the unrest is spreading in the arab world too reminiscent of the arab spring nearly a decade ago to what extent do you see this is something new and different possibly something even more potent well i would say its very different from what happened in the what was called the arab spring because if we look at whats happening in iraq and lebanon now for example people for the 1st time are going out on the streets not for support of the political leaders but actually against them i mean we see people who are used in lebanon who used to go on the streets in support of hezbollah who are now protesting against hezbollah who are goes used to go on the street and support of f. E. M. A. Do you to the city from minnesota now or were they you they were demanding his resignation and you resigned and the same with the christian leaders and in iraq as well we see people asking the leaders that they had acted few months ago to resign and you know to to elect a new government that does not have anything to do with political figures but barack ratz record no record and lets talk once again just for a moment about the common factors i go one expert who says that this is going to do with elites worldwide failing to give people the feeling that they can look forward to a life of hope and selfrespect is that the common denominator there you see there certainly is that element a lot of especially younger people feel fed up with essentially political systems or structures that were imposed on them sometimes years ago sometimes decades ago. Which they feel do no no longer work for them essentially and whats also interesting i think is that a lot of cases those protesters do not necessarily identify with the Political Party they dont no longer do not feel represented by a little partys any longer and thats certainly something ive observed also looking at that america for instance part from middle east and yes just pick up on that point if you would a Global Change movement is what is what is being described a period of flux not seen for decades does that capture the zeitgeist. I mean im a bit uneasy about the notion of basically were seeing something completely new and nothing has been going on in the last years basically so i think that is part of the truth and were definitely seeing a spike of protests and parts of the world that were not affected by put this in the past such as some of the republics that were some how missed by the arab spring lets put it like that but then at the same time also with that new attention on some of the hot spots comes also more attention more Media Attention to other hotspots in the world which kind of you know said it spirals up into you know into media frenzy of protests like this it was just a media frenzy because the me. But many other people to ordinary people that ive been seeing in recent weeks the same were approaching some kind of Tipping Point i think something or civil i think people are empowered by the pictures they see from other parts of the world that you know a televised on their they come to their home screens day they peer into social media they see what is happening there and suddenly they you know theres a shift of mindset theres an impression maybe we could try Something Like here you know and maybe some of the recipes for the same problems that we have social injustice corruption etc maybe some of the recipes might as well work in our context i think theres a theres a powerful contagion of the men but that doesnt necessarily mean that its all a Global Movement because in the end its mostly cause i think the factors that drive these protests working on nodding yeah i think its absolutely correct because obviously we always tend to draw comparisons and thats helpful especially when it comes to trying to look for Solutions Like what can we learn from other countries how to how to respond to this or how how to address those demands but at the same time alone and whats happening there is hardly comparable to to whats happening in happening in iraq right now the. Commentators of the u. S. President ial advisor and. Academics huge stigma of persian ski talking of few years ago a bouncer Global Political awakening that notion of an awakening is very optimistic about what were seeing you do you share that kind of optimism well i would say this is more a backlash against deteriorating conditions its not necessarily a wakening in a sense i think 10 years ago or a few years ago we saw people being inspired by progress and and them protesting because they wanted to be part of it and they felt left out i think what were seeing a lot of places now is actually quite different its more a backlash against. Things getting worse for them and for for their countries overall i think people are getting emboldened when they see other people and other countries where. It wasnt so swat that they could go on the streets and and protest against their leaders theyre doing it and they start thinking well if theyre doing it maybe we can do it i mean the protest if we take an example between iraq and lebanon the demonstrators were holding banners saying get what we salute the protestors in iraq and so the other way around also in iraq they were saying we salute the protesters and love and so when the people i love and saw that the people in iraq are on the streets actually burning trying to burn the iraqi the Iranian Embassy because they feel that iran is interfering in their affairs and is one of the reasons why its holding the country back so the people who support hezbollah and lebanon and its fast im in this house photo k. If theyre doing that well maybe we can also voice our opinion and go in the street and demand you know better. Better living for for for us i mean the situation in iraq 11 is 30 not comparable in terms of violence that has seen as iraq has seen but you know theres always this danger that things can cancel out out of control but that finitely theres this link that people see each other especially in the social media age where everything is supposed to do immediately and people can you know send each other pictures of whats happening and they can follow on facebook and twitter whats going on so people do feel emboldened by that ok we go for examples of the moments in each instance when outrage and despair boil over into protest and sometimes in to violence. Cine a full cent hike in subway fares triggered mass protests president Sebastian Pinera a billionaire was made a scapegoat when images surfaced of pinera dining in an expensive restaurant protest displaying the government for the ever widening gap between rich and poor. Lebanon tens of thousands took to the streets to condemn a 20 cent per day feed the government plan to impose on telephone calls over the internet in late october Prime Minister al how do you agree resigned but the protests continued now theyre directed against the governments economic policies corruption and inflation. Fronts every saturday tens of thousands across the country protested against a 7 cent increase in fuel prices. After 2 months the government rolled back the price increases. Here to the demonstrations have continued taking aim at social inequalities in spring 2019 the Movement Last seen after president emmanuel mccormack initiated a National Debate over people today more willing to fight for their rights. Well thats a good question because theyre young as it was all of our grievances surrounding nobility and communication what does that tell us about the movements that were sort of witnessing at this point in time i would say that its often the triggers are often maybe not only mobility and telecommunication but basically subject Service Provisions basically so its because these are sectors where corruption is rampant in many parts of the world and where. All kinds of social classes are affected in a way by this so basically and as and especially the ones that are that are anyway the disenfranchised off the globalization and of liberal Economic Reforms and so on so what i think is over what i believe is we see in large parts of the world maybe not in barcelona. In hong kong because theres different motives behind the purpose is that the return of the social question in combination with corruption basically and this is like a very explosive mixture of basically you have a certain fertile grounds that is the grievances of people that are the do is lets say of globalization and then theres these transformative events theyre called in social Movement Research basically that you know make blatantly obvious disparages between the walk and talk of the elite basically and at that show blatantly obvious to everyone that those in power and im not you know managing the country for their good for the peoples good but for their own in a way and i think that the cases that were mentioned here. Was for that but you could as well add indonesia to that or you could peru to that where actually attempts to disempower on the corruption agencies and so on where the trigger for protests its this motive of corruption is returning over and over and over in this protest so i think this is one of the most common denominators of these protests across the world basic rick you have the right you know in these same questions what have you discovered. Well. What i think we have discovered is essentially what you just said sort of the this inequality social discontent is certainly driving the tensions in a lot of countries but then at the same time i think one of the more interesting discoveries is sort of how people have been trying to deal with it how theyve responded to this and one interesting example ive. Seen over the last few days has actually been chile where people have realized that with this government they might not be able to achieve what they want which is. A new constitution essentially that theyve come together in thousands of sort of small town Hall Meetings which theyve organized themselves or to have been organized by soccer clubs or other institutions where they themselves sort of try to develop solutions and. I think those initiatives and those the ideas are a quite interesting to observe and theyre happening in a number of countries the Cancer Community inequality a very important issues very important tropes in what is going on how much and you mentioned this earlier again how much is this is is this an age will. Well it is pretty much in a drawer because the gap between rich and poor is widening go all over the world or in a lot of countries even in the United States and even in communities in europe its not widening to the same degree as in many other countries where we are where were seeing the protests like and chile today is one of the most you know is one of the richest latin american countries huge in all of its but they really quality is massive in it and this is why we were talking about the. Protests and france who are those people who are protesting a lot of them were people from the band who are of immigrant descents or algerians who went to paris i mean if you go to paris now and you cross the you cross the the volga in the metro and the underground you immediately know that you are out of to the wall do it because i mean you can tell when you walk on the street that its the value because its been left to you know to to decay i mean its collapsing you can tell that people are Unemployed People dont know what to do its the social inequality is massive there and the same goes and 11 and in iraq those are 2 countries that dont have electricity i mean iraq is an old rich country that people dont have electricity now and the same and lebanon i mean its yeah the level of you know difference between rich and poor is widening and its kerry and poor people cannot put up with it even if you tell them its 0. 20 on the phone call when you are the country that pays the you know the one of the highest bills on on satellite phones and you know you come and strip them the stride of making a free call thats been given to them its so universal you know that they are going to get angry and they are going to go on the streets and you know think of it to other things yes. Yeah i think its completely its completely right what you just said and i mean what turns ds i mean you could have you know discontent with the political system in any part of the world but you certainly have that in democracies as well you know. Protests all over the place but what i think turns these this current protests into larger social movements into the laws are mosques uprisings if you will is that theres a theres a frustration basically with the mechanisms or visit with the with the lack of responsivity of the political systems where these put this takes place of so people on the street and theres a parallel actually with movements like the Extinction Rebellion in germany where the people on the street they have no trust anymore that the political systems that are in place to govern them basically can provide solutions for the problem problems that they see and to wall that Climate Change to what extent when you talk about that kind of frustrations what extent. Can violence even be the way to bring about change to what extent is that acceptable after all were sitting here in germany the countries that is so proud of its peaceful revolution the removed the building wall. I mean. I mean 1st of all i think its necessary to differ basically what kind of violence were talking about if were talking about physical violence and like you know one of those structural violence which is basically the mind driver that brings people to the street there in the 1st place when we talk about physical violence at purchase events themselves sometimes also in response to policing measures and then theres theres basically the evidence is mixed and researched is theres been you know that it is very. Very luck very little evidence that suggests that violent revolutions are generally more successful than nonviolent ones and the opposite is true as well theres been a very contentious book back agenda with that came out that basically contests the thesis of the nonviolent revolution as the most successful way i think in a way its not steerable anyway that much often these violent incidents happen out of situational dynamics with things go out of hand in lebanon yesterday a protester was shot and killed overnight this might very well be an event that spirals out of control in hong kong the protester was shot in the middle east with police on the street this was certainly not planned meditated but this stuff can trigger spirals that end up in violent uprisings at one point so i think that is a limited ability of social movements to control their followers to a certain extent theyre doing that and i think its remarkable that actually most of these protests are nonviolent right now and still remarkably peaceful in a way. Sometimes you know i just wanted to say that one of the reasons why those protests or you know some of them are turning into violence is that the International Order is kind of broken down i mean we have the United States that is the leader of the world that thats being quiet on most of those things all along most of those conflicts i mean very important point because it has for so long been a flag ship of freedom and yeah i mean you dont wait for the United States to see what they have to say about those conflicts and when the United States is not saying anything is not going for the government in iraq to you know reform is not calling on the government of lebanon to listen to the people is not you know when we have this silence so those governments feel empowered to fight back that people and this will obviously lead to violence because the people feel theyre not being heard and they want to escalate and you know thats when things get out of control interesting comments now lets have a look now at 2 countries that have gone in Different Directions in recent times change faulted in one of the countries changed to a certain extent at least realized in the other. The 2011 arab spring began in tunisia and spread to egypt after weeks of protests egyptian president Hosni Mubarak resigned he ruled for nearly 30 years he was tried on corruption charges. Newly elected egyptian president Mohamed Morsi set about establishing a strict religious regime after one year he was ousted by a military coup in 2014 former defense minister l c c became president he ordered thousands arrested and democratic organizations crushed many gyptian czar calling the regime worse than mubaraks and theyre taking to the streets. A ray of hope appeared in sudan after over 3 decades of ruthless domination and months of protests the sudanese dictator Omar Al Bashir was ousted by the countrys military following continued bloodshed the military council and Opposition Forces for Freedom Movement signed an agreement regulating the division of power between military and civilian authority the 1st democratic elections are to be held within 3 years is it the military that decides success or failure of a revolution. Think important question another record a core question that is related to younis us finding a little bit i did sir very broad question hard to give you how do you how do you best move from anger and despair to sustained constructive chait which. I get that thats the thats the 1000000. 00 question in the in a way right i mean thats the holy grail of transition studies. Thats no guarantee for success but those cases that have proven successful transitional countries to make their way towards democratization are tomorrow open and more liberal systems of society or post conflict countries such as lebanon are iraq. Dialogue basically and round tables and bringing the stakeholders to the table and not only those with the guns basically has proven like a relatively successful recipe to to maybe maybe a conflict and to keep it keep it peaceful and let exclusion never works on the long run it might work for the time that repression actually remarks we were remarkably well for a certain time but it might backfire on the long run these exclusion i dont have much hope that wherever people are excluded that this will be sustained and rick what dont what role does leadership play in old days ive seen you know one comment was what were experiencing at the moment a new age of leaderless revolution as though that was something to be applauded as though that were a good thing but what happened to Mahatma Gandhi will happen to Martin Luther king what happened to Nelson Mandela these are the kind of people surely that these movements could use right i guess the sort of advantage or what people see in steve vantage of leaderless movements is that it can be so easily perhaps abused by someone who is charismatic or wants to stay or protest in a Certain Movement but the risk of course is similar that it can derail and perhaps people are no longer quite sure what they want to achieve in the 1st place and in certain elements breakout and violence erupts as some feared and in hong kong for instance. What is interesting though is in a lot of those places where protests have been happening for instance in iraq on 2 rear square were in lebannon p. Have sort of come together on public spaces and tried to create a society they do sort of envision in a small micro scale and that is something really interesting i think because that is essentially leadership by by living it and by by showing the elite and the establishment what they have in mind are good you touched on leadership earlier yeah i mean thats true because one of the main problems now is that the whoever is in power does not want to give power this is what you know and believe you know when the president left and you know went to mexico this didnt even come down because this that came came came late because what he tried to do is they tried to run for another election hit the election he won the election he stayed in power and this is what to give the people and we see that yes of course if you want to stay in power and if you want to stop those protests against you by force what will happen we had an example in syria president bashar assad sent to or did that with the help of the russians which made things worse but whats happened to syria now i mean syria now is fractured country is a country that would if the war ends now would take decades to recover and you know god knows how many refugees are going to be able to return to their country if that happens so you can stay in power and you can crush that of revolution but at what price at the price of losing your country as it is. Ive got a quote for you which i found very extremely interesting this week i was reading so a comment commentator from the center for strategic and International Studies in washington he wrote the risks and implications are mounting for governments businesses and organizations its a question of when not save the digital flashmob comes to those in power how much should the those in power be fearing the bulb. Well i think that doesnt power have always feared. What to fear now is social media basically i mean that that whats disclosed it alleges today sickly thats you know the digital. Connections that can be drawn between very you know disparate people and also outside of the big urban centers basically this is a very empowering component of social media thats also why so many in power are trying to control social media and theyre employing in a box armies and theyre using more sophisticated means of digital surveillance and repression to get to those that organize protests and so on so i think its a 2 edged sword its basically a continuation of i think the game that has been going on between the people in power hold as authoritarian ones for decades just that now a digital level of digital arena has been added to that basically. Oh were running out of time im going to have to leave it there im a fright weve been talking about this global uprising here all to the point thanks very much for joining us until next week bye bye im to chose. From. In the. Green gary gensler and live. Out east and the diesel gate scandal. 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