That live. As we take on the world. All of the stories that matter to you country but what ever is to. Cut the budget a good. Deal made for mines. Like an apocalypse a phenomenon around the globe impacting pretty much everyone everywhere at the same time. The great motown robbed us of our freedoms and our daily lives shops restaurants playgrounds schools closed. Personal contacts. Was prohibited millions of people locked in their homes for weeks on end. Some say it came at a huge Economic Cost but saved millions of lives. Others suggest the burden was so great in actually cost lives. Theres no glory in prevention germanys chief the role of just on the steps taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus medical experts one popular in some places even though they may have saved millions of lives thats the conclusion of a new study in the journal nature in a moment well ask an expert how effective was 1st lets run the numbers. The lock down save lives thats the finding from Imperial College london researchers there created a model of what would have happened if nothing had been done to contain the pandemic no quarantine no shutdown of public life. They examined several european countries. They didnt look at the infection rate though but the number of deaths which the researchers said was the key measure of effectiveness thats because deaths are reported in roughly the same way across europe infection numbers on the other hand are less certain the reporting systems ferry and follow different standards death numbers are much clearer they are tallied quickly everywhere britain can be compared easily with 2 european neighbors italy and germany they are countries with similar sizes and structures how many people would have died if the coronavirus had been left to run its course the numbers the researchers came up with are startling 670000 people would have died in the u. K. And germany that would have been 570000 in italy 500000. The experts emphasize that these are all hypothetical values based on mathematical models in the real world people would have taken steps to protect themselves no matter what the government did but it shows that the lockdowns and School Closings have no effect on our still having one without them many more people would have died heres how things have turned out as of last week in britain nearly 43000 patients had died of cope at 19 in italy that was nearly 35000 but in germany there were just under 9000 dead. The Imperial College Scientists Say the british death toll could have been much lower if steps had been taken earlier. So had really introduced. The hall so prevention is crucial but Early Intervention may be the key to saving lives. To be escorted is an epidemiologist and director of the institute of Public Health at the hospital here in berlin thank you very much for being on the show again 1st of all. When we look at those numbers britain germany italy old very different scenarios there but what do these numbers actually me. 1st of all one has to understand the underlying proper lation is different so the population size so just looking at the absolute numbers is difficult because the the size of the population these countries are different then obviously also the classification is different so what do you call a patient and i can cope with 19 what is the test strategy and so comparing countries is not as easy but the broad picture is very obviously dead the sort of cheese a difference and the reaction and possibilities of the Healthcare System also differ which may have explained some of these differences what about what it comes to sweden a relatively small country sweeping lock down didnt happen but they had a higher number of deaths. Yes they had a high number of deaths relative to the population size which may indicate that the strategy may not be optimal for sweden but officials there and the scientists are watching the situation very carefully and trying to to react according to the swedish system what do you think is coming our way as a 2nd lockdown is that conceivable. Its certainly conceivable right now to numbers are arising in several countries dramatically rising and several states for example in the United States after lock down have opened up and now its see a dramatic rise and a substantial burden for the Health Care System so i think at least on the local level a 2nd lockdown is very likely until we have a medication or a vaccine available to treat 19 whats that going to mean though if a 2nd look at it means. It means that well 1st of all 19 happened locally in regions so not in on or on a country as a whole but its always in regions so the lockdown that we had during the 1st wave socalled 1st wave affected most lee countries so our state levels and so hopefully by now we have measures in place that will allow us to if necessary have lockdowns on a more regional more smaller level so just a city or like a village or like a very small region rather than a state or a country thats what i mean when i say we hopefully have measures in place that will allow us to react more flexible but that doesnt mean opening up closing down over and over i mean can that go on forever at some stage were going to have to come to terms with the reality of living with this disease. Absolutely and the reality is that the virus is still there and were trying to open up and the issue is of course we have some wonder whether sometimes people go outside and they forget that the virus is there so wearing a mask particularly if you go inside a very very important keeping the distance testing tracing people isolating people who have been tested positive its very important and not all countries are ready to actually conduct these measures thats why the ultimate solution then is unfortunately a lockdown you heard from to be as coach it to me all the just and director of the institute of Public Health at the shotty remember that thank you. And lets check in with out science correspondent Eric Williams hes been busy researching the answers to your questions on all things correctly. Can someone who has been infected and cured of covert 19 reinfected ive answered this a couple of times over the months but its one of those topics that means regular updates especially in light of a couple of a recently published studies showing that antibody levels are dropping off in a in a pretty big way in a lot of people who had copd at 19 and within 3 months of their infection especially in those who were asymptomatic now antibody levels it has to be said arent the only factor to play a role in long term immune response but but still this isnt positive news when it comes to our hopes that getting covert 19 will stop you from getting it again for at least a year or 2. That said over 6 months into the pandemic theres still no clear cut evidence of someone being infected again after having already been through the disease ones. How likely is the transmission of influenza on airline flights. To find out how dangerous flying could be potentially in the in the covert 19 era its a good idea to look back at research in planes that weve done in the past on the spread of viruses like influenza now the w. H. O. Says transmission of infectious pathogens happens mostly between people seated in the same area on the plane so the risk is highest within those few rows but but it concludes that the risk is otherwise no higher than it is on a train or a bus or or in a theater but i tracked down a medicine. That a from 2016 and one of the interesting things it had to say was that research on the topic really doesnt always agree and that our data is not really that robust so to be truthful it looks like we still dont know really exactly how likely pathogen transmission is on a plane just that it grows more likely the closer you see it to the infected person. What lessons are being learned to prevent the next pandemic how are they being compiled and disseminated and. I think there are many lessons to be learned or or maybe really learned from this pandemic one is that we need to be more prepared for when this happens again and sooner or later we know it will. Another is that transparency and acting fast especially in the early stages of a novel pathogen outbreak is absolutely vital. Unfortunately for us humans Lessons Learned often dont necessarily translate into into lessons retained when it comes to compiling and disseminating learned lessons it seems to me that the World Health Organization would be a natural repository but at the same time the mistakes the w. H. O. Has made in the course of this current pandemic have revealed some some pretty deep flaws in my opinion the Organization Needs reforms that not only give it a clearer mandate but that also give it the means to carry that mandate out because next time we really have to do a better job at coordinating an international response. Fine. There are numerous witnesses to come out of the crisis in australia for example is 90 year old cookbook its always been a staple in tasmania but as the lock down so many people develop a love of cooking and baking it propelled the central cocreate book onto bestseller lists its also gaining in popularity abroad with its no nonsense but its. Theyve got a recipe and method also why ive been fizzling i stab you along well see you next. Enter the conflict zone with tim sebastian. Lebanons Hezbollah Movement whos condemned as a terrorist group by many countries but it also has a powerful political face was seats in parliament and government my guess this week from beirut is one of its politicians interview musawi how does the self name to talk to you going to reconcile its very different activities conflicts are. Part of the next w. Pastern some Plastic Waste german consumers carefully gather in separate unsafe plastics and there is still the biggest producers in plastic when a stranger rather than recycling it they export it why cant they get it out. Looking for clues in place to. Germanys problem with plastic. In 45 minutes on t w. Happiness fears for everyone schuman penises are very different from primates we have very totally ridiculous the size. Nature. This is Climate Change brags that sex how to dance in books you get smarter for free. On. Im not laughing at the germans well i guess sometimes i am but i stand nothing with the people to have any think deep into the german culture im. New to predict in this drama you know its all about who had enough time rachel join me for me to get ready to post. Things put in the most of the 4 with the media against hezbollah move being engaged also in fighting because about really good germans good shows money up Companies Got most of these are puppets in the American House lebanons Hezbollah Movement is condemned as a terrorist group by many countries including the u. S. And most arab states but it also has a powerful political face with seats in parliament and government my guest this week from beirut is one of its politicians musawi how does the self named paul
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