How to handle new lives in times of the current economic d. W. Reporter peter to look just like everyone else and shes looking for answers thankfully with the help of many expect. Thank you is not life as we know it. In this together our new web series. Like an apocalypse a phenomenon around the globe impacting pretty much everyone everywhere at the same time. The great motown robbed us of our freedoms and our daily lives shops restaurants playgrounds schools closed. Personal contact. It was prohibited millions of people were locked in their homes for weeks on end. Some say it came at a huge Economic Cost that saved millions of lives. Others suggest the burden was so great actually cost lives. Theres no glory in prevention chief the role of just on the steps taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus medical experts werent popular in some places even though they may have saved millions of lives thats the conclusion of a new study in the journal nature in a moment well ask an expert how effective coroutine was lets run the numbers. The lockdown saved lives thats the finding from Imperial College london researchers there created a model of what would have happened if nothing had been done to contain the pandemic no quarantine no shutdown of public life. They examined several european countries. They didnt look at the infection rate though but the number of deaths which the researchers said was the key measure of effectiveness thats because deaths are reported in roughly the same way across europe infection numbers on the other hand are less certain the reporting systems ferry and follow different standards death numbers are much clearer they are tallied quickly everywhere. Britain can be compared easily with 2 european neighbors italy and germany they are countries with similar sizes and structures how many people would have died if the coronavirus had been left to run its course the numbers the researchers came up with are startling 670000 people would have died in the u. K. And germany that would have been 570000 in italy 500000. The experts emphasize that these are hypothetical values based on mathematical models in the real world people would have taken steps to protect themselves no matter what the government did but it shows that the lockdowns and School Closings have no effect on our still having one without them many more people would have died heres how things have turned out as of last week in britain nearly 43000 patients had died of cope at 19 in italy that was nearly 35000 but in germany there were just under 9000 dead. The Imperial College Scientists Say the british death toll could have been much lower if steps had been taken earlier. So had we introduced. The hall so prevention is crucial but Early Intervention may be the key to saving lives. To be escorted is an epidemiologist and director of the institute of Public Health at the hospital here in berlin thank you very much for being on the show again 1st of all. When we look at those numbers britain germany italy old very different scenarios there but what do these numbers actually me. 1st of all one has to understand the underlying proper lation is different so the population size so just looking at the absolute numbers is difficult because the the size of the population these countries are different then obviously also the classification is different so what do you call a patient i can cope with 19 what is the test strategy and so comparing countries is not as easy but broads a picture is very obviously a debt the sweater she is a difference and the reaction and possibilities of the Healthcare System also differ which may have explained some of these differences what about what it comes to sweden a relatively small country sweeping lock down didnt happen but they had a higher number of deaths. Yes they had a high number of deaths relative to the population size which may indicate that the strategy may not be optimal for sweden but officials there and the scientists are watching the situation very carefully and trying to act according to the swedish system what do you think is coming our way as a 2nd lockdown is that conceivable. Its certainly conceivable right now to numbers are rising in several countries dramatically rising and several states for example in the United States have opened up and now its see a dramatic rise and a substantial burden for the Health Care System so i think at least on the local level a 2nd lockdown is very likely until we have a medication or a vaccine available to treat 19 whats that going to mean though if a 2nd look at it means. It means that well 1st of all 19 happened locally in regions so not in on or on a country as a whole but its always in the region so that the lockdown that we had to do in the 1st wave socalled 1st wave affected mostly countries so or state levels and so hopefully by now we have measures in place that will allow us to if necessary have lockdowns on a more regional more smaller level so just a city or like a village or like a very small region rather than a state or a country thats what i mean when i say we hopefully have some measures in place that will allow us to react more flexible but that doesnt mean opening up closing down over and over i mean that go on forever at some stage were going to have to come to terms with the reality of living with this disease. Absolutely and the reality is that the virus is still there and were trying to open up and the issue is of course we have some wonder whether people go outside and they forget about resistors so wearing a mask particularly if you go inside a very very important keeping the distance testing tracing people isolating people who have been tested positive its very important and not all countries are ready to actually conduct these measures thats why the ultimate solution then is unfortunately a lockdown. From to be as court if you give me all the gist and director of the institute of Public Health at the shop here in bergen thank you. And lets check in with out science correspondent Eric Williams has been busy researching the answers to your questions on all things correctly. Can someone who has been infected and cured of covert 19 be reinfected ive answered this a couple of times over the months but its one of those topics that means regular updates especially in light of a couple of a recently published studies showing that antibody levels are dropping off in a in a pretty big way in a lot of people who had copd at 19 and within 3 months of their infection especially in those who were a cent to mattick now antibody levels it has to be said arent the only factor to play a role in long term immune response but but still this isnt positive news when it comes to our hopes that getting covert 19 will stop you from getting it again for at least a year or 2. That said over 6 months into the pen demick theres still no clear cut evidence of someone being infected again after having already been through the disease once. How likely is the transmission of influenza on airline flights. To find out how dangerous flying could be potentially in the in the covert 19 era its a good idea to look back at research in planes that weve done in the past on the spread of viruses like influenza now the w. H. O. Says transmission of infectious pathogens happens mostly between people seated in the same area on the plane so the risk is highest within those few rows but but it concludes that the risk is otherwise no higher than it is on a train or a bus or or in a theater but i tracked down a medicine. That is from 2016 and one of the interesting things it had to say was that research on the topic really doesnt always agree and that our data is not really that robust so to be truthful it looks like we still dont know really exactly how likely pathogen transmission is on a plane just that it grows more likely the closer you see it to the infected person. What lessons are being learned to prevent the next pandemic how are they being compiled and disseminated. I think there are many lessons to be learned or or maybe really learned from this pandemic one is that we need to be more prepared for when this happens again and sooner or later we know it will another is that transparency and acting fast especially in the early stages of a novel pathogen outbreak is absolutely vital. Unfortunately for us humans Lessons Learned often dont necessarily translate into into lessons retained when it comes to compiling and disseminating learned lessons it seems to me that the World Health Organization would be a natural repository but at the same time the mistakes the w. H. O. Has made in the course of this current pandemic have revealed some some pretty deep flaws in my opinion the Organization Needs reforms that not only give it a clearer mandate but that also give it the means to carry that mandate out because next time we really have to do a better job at coordinating an international response. Fine. There are numerous witnesses to come out of the crisis in australia for example this 90 year old cookbook its always been a staple in tasmania but as the bloke down so many people develop a love of cooking and baking it propelled the central cocreate book onto bestseller lists its also gaining in popularity abroad with its no nonsense present but its. Theyve got a rest you never also pot ive been fizzling i stab you with all the see you next dr. Drew the point strong opinions clear positions of international perspectives. Comes to weeks of large scale demonstrations against racism in the us and many other countries across the world one thing is clear violence and discrimination remain deep roots he did not science based sound so he loves to join us from to the point shortly. To the point i see it coming next the t w. Being good shape. Protection i am back seems on top again due to the coronavirus of serious illnesses why polio and measles can already be eradicated to this many people as possible have access to the vaccine medicine this is in the end vaccines impacts not only individuals from the whole of society when you talk of minds from a good change. In 60 minutes on d. W. My smiling. Like now. Even she came to me. And. I come from a school that used to look different from. My. I am an unsolvable bridge. She couldve. Starts july 3rd d. W. No to racism following the killing of george floyd at the hands of the police in minneapolis have been weeks of demonstrations in the us against racist violence and the black drives masser movement has inspired hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets across europe to the protests have triggered a new debate here in germany on every day racism which figures show is on the rise which has a lot
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