Transcripts For DW To The Point 20240712

Economy in freefall and society deeply polarized a record 69 percent say the country is on the wrong track trumps approval rate has plunged with elections just 4 months away corona in the usa trumps downfall. The an. Element of. Thats our topic today on to the point of very warm welcome and here are the guests who will answer that question its a pleasure to welcome down hamilton hes a professor for Political Science at Johns Hopkins University School of advanced International Studies hes also currently a robert bosch fellow in berlin and he says pandemic recessions systemic racism all made worst. By President Trump it is a combustible brew and its a pleasure to welcome Matthew Carney jake he is chief youre of course a correspondent for politico and his view the pandemic has trumps waterloo the main question now is not if he will lose but rather by how much. And were very glad to have psoriasis how do you nelson on the program she is Program Director at k. C. R w a Radio Station based here in berlin partners with the American Public radio and she says Donald Trumps performance regarding kofi at 19 may not matter because recessions lead to reelection losers. So that you use a trump is looking at certain defeat and the situation in your own home state of arizona would certainly seem to bear you out it is a western sunbelt state john mccain territory yet apparently it is now in play no longer a sure bet for the Republican Party so whats going on well i think people are realizing that what trump has done over the past several months just hasnt worked its no longer a theoretical question when the local hospital is running out of intensive care beds when people you know in your family or in your group of friends is has been hit with coronavirus or is dying of it or has died its really starting to hit people home i think in a way that it has to now and youre also seeing obviously the economic effects which are quite dramatic in a place like arizona for example which relies on a lot of tourism from elsewhere in the country theyre really feeling it and at the beginning things seemed to be going fairly well and because they opened up too early on the advice of the president and others theyre now really really suffering its become one of the red zones in the United States for sure so. You say its mainly the economy that counts but it seems that older voters and suburban residents in states like arizona have lost trust in the president because of his lack of leadership during the corona period wouldnt losing their support be pretty critical for his election chances well theres no doubt theres a lot of disappointment there but when you where you look at the surveys and you look at the questions and when the question is asked about who can lead americans out of this this economic crisis that were in whether its caused by the pandemic or or whatever else people still have more faith i mean the numbers are much closer between biden and and trump at that point so there still is i mean i think george im sorry James Carvilles said it best when he talked about its the economy stupid i think that rule still applies and if you look at history if you look at recessions its recessions that create losers doesnt mean that the president wont lose but i think the recession really more of a driving factor and we will come back to the state of the economy a little bit later but let me ask dan about your Opening Statement you talked about a combustible brew exactly what do you mean by that and how combustible do you see a potential for ongoing social unrest absolutely its really not an exaggeration to say its the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse it really is all together crises one after another you have the pandemic which is out of control you have on top of the century you know rare century one in a century recession. Probably depression you have massive social unrest now going on because of systemic racism its a thing as matt said when you see whos being affected its disproportionately affecting people of color. And that has a sas or beta plus the recession also affects people of color more all of this is coming together and all these protests and uprisings one sees thats not going to go away and all 3 of those have been made worse by donald trump and the types of policies hes pursued so i really do think. All of this will be with us for some time its not something where were going to get over it any time soon and talk about that a bit later as well but before we continue let us take a look at how the different elements of that combustible brew blend together. The usa is in its 4th year under donald trump. For Many Americans his presidency stands for racism and social injustice longstanding problems that have intensified during the corona crisis millions of americans have no Health Insurance no apartment and no job despite improving slightly the Unemployment Rate is still the highest its been since world war 2 the patriotic festivities on the 4th of july cant distract from these issues. And i dont really see much to celebrate in america right now im not seeing what i believe this country stands for these past few years. The pressure on donald trump is increasing in many polls hes approximately 10 percent behind his democratic challenger joe biden Many Americans are dissatisfied angry or afraid only 17 percent are still proud of their country the people it will never grow dont know and i think trying to be good president i really do and i mean you dont want more for this country in 90 days and obama did in 8 years. 4 months until the next elections and the country is more divided than ever before is america now paying the price for trumps presidency. So as we heard they are both the virus itself and the economic aftereffects of the lockdown have taken the harshest toll on those who are already vulnerable dan mentioned as well the death rate for africanamericans is almost twice that for white americans africanamericans have also been among the 1st to lose their jobs sariah why is that. Thats a good question i mean a lot of it has to do with what is available to people of color versus and to black communities in particular i mean they just dont there its the haves and the have nots and Health Insurance plays a big big role also contributing factors to what makes coronavirus more virulent and some than others thats something that that the scientists have talked about but and also you know theyre just on a lower i mean they associate economic reality is that you have richer white people richer suburban people than you do you know blacks still tend to live in inner cities and those places so there is a definite description of discrepancy and divide there. Dan does that mean in a way that this terrible toll weve seen in the u. S. Is not really Donald Trumps fault after all. Well he didnt cause the pandemic that started in china and spread you know throughout the world but you can see many other countries have gotten ahold of it many other countries have had wise leadership has tried to communicate the extent of the challenge that were facing. Present trumpets on the opposite hes hes hes willfully ignoring it is really nothing more to say hes hes hes no implementing rules will force schools either to open. Or Deport International Students for instance hes doing everything he can to sort of force the economy to get back on track even though were still in the 1st wave of the pandemic in germany one talks about maybe a 2nd wave coming but we have never reached the end of the 1st wave in the United States and it keeps rolling across the country with unbelievable impact so he didnt cause it but its been exacerbated so if i understand down correctly matthew he would be saying essentially that trumps lack of leadership or poor crisis manager. It exacerbated structural vulnerabilities would you agree with that well i dont think any question and this is why i think its going to come down to his management of the crisis on election day the economy i think is one aspect of that but there are counter examples and i think this is going to be a big problem for trump to explain why the richest country in the world has the highest death rate of any country and ignored a lot of the signs early on and you know did not take the steps it could have taken like many countries in europe did but not only if you look to new Zealand Australia and others who took the danger seriously and he did exactly the opposite and now hes paying paying the price for that strategy and i think people are waking up to it because you cant ignore the fact that a lot of people are dying that there are a lot of coffins rolling by and you know this is going to be really difficult for him to recover from one quick question on that lack of management a symbolic piece that many people are focused on not wearing a mask hes often blamed for setting a bad example by not doing so but if you look at the culture in your state for example arizona one day to have been the case that many people there would not have wanted to wear a mask either that sort of freedom loving culture that we know from the us doesnt that make it harder to get people to follow the rules no matter whos in the white house absolutely but thats exactly why leadership is very important at a time like this and if he had early on suggested to people that they wear a mask and show his willingness to wear a mask it would have had a huge impact and i heard today from a minister here in germany who said that in managing the crisis here it was crucial that. Early on stop shaking peoples hands and show that you know she was taking these rules seriously and then you had an acceptance in the population for. For you know these days restrictions and because of kind of the liberty loving american mentality would be more difficult there theres no doubt but i think the trump would have had an easier time in convincing people from arizona than barack obama would have for example but i think that presumes though that everyone accepts that this virus is actually a virus and that its a pandemic and that there is a medical reason to do this i mean in the end the mask has become perhaps the most political symbol at the moment in and wearing it or not wearing it isnt about protecting yourself or protecting others from the virus but its about where you stand on the political spectrum exactly so lets talk about that a minute because Political Polarization seems to encompass everything that happens in the United States and it also in compass is the virus views of how dangerous this virus is to some extent depend on Peoples Political Party affiliation which is seems surprising i think to many outside america. Whats going on there and what role the media play in that. Well there is no doubt in america that the media play a big role in that whether you know you believe the the side that rears toward trump that its the fake media or the left media or whatever thats causing it or whether you look at the other side that its you know fox news in particular thats sort of drawing this debate away from science or from from rational you know sort of approach that you see in other countries including germany so the media is definitely playing a role in that but its also the fact that the pandemic while the numbers are escalating at a very alarming rate the death and the deaths are high its still not enough i mean i really do think that the Tipping Point may come if we god forbid have a new york scenario going on in arizona or or in some of these other states that are there pivotal to the election this fall if you start seeing refrigerator trucks taking away coffins or Something Like that then maybe people will start to. Wake up and say well this isnt a political debate and this in fact is something that we should be paying attention to because the health of everybody in the country is at stake i just dont see the at least i mean im sitting here in germany and again my what im reading and what im consuming is how im you know coming to this conclusion but i just dont get the sense that americans take this all that seriously yet despite the overwhelming and staggering numbers that we see dan let me take us back to the question of the political consequences for donald trump also in the context of Political Polarization in the United States we are seeing really record high levels of mistrust in political leaders generally and in the other Political Party so in the beginning of the program we heard a sound bite or 2 from President Trumps Independence Day speech hes used that speech and other recent public appearances to really blast the left blaming them for example for the black lives matter protest saying that theyre trying to tear down americas historical culture and so on when you look at his Election Campaign strategy is he now has he decided to play entirely to his base and can he win on that basis. You know the polarization of which you were just discussing i think. Especially if say for a german audience to understand our Political Parties the United States really kind of big tents they dont have the same sort of programatic platforms that have any meaning for a european context and within each party there is a vicious civil war going on so the polarization is not sort of between right and left its actually between lots of different kinds of groups within the Democratic Party right now particularly given the social unrest the progressive sort of element of the democrats putting huge pressure on joe biden to go for more left that he can they did their candidates didnt win the nomination process but they are having a party by lizabeth war and theyre talking about Bernie Sanders being a big fight right now. And so bidens being pushed in that direction hes trying to hold sort of the mainstream. Youre seeing pieces of the Trump Coalition Republican Coalition start to break away you see a number of governors now who had gone along with opening up things Governor Florida you know was celebrating the well back for business and now theyre all shutting down again is this pandemic reaches them in the recession reaches their toll even. Which had been really supporting trump for a lot of Different Reasons are starting to break away. Parts of his base with him and that will be really important in a number of these battleground states which one has to understand in the american system really is very important you dont win a Public Opinion race you have to win 50 different states and those electoral votes so state like arizona or pennsylvania will be really critical are wisconsin. Messier the Trump Administration as weve talked about has long pushed for quicker reopening of the economy now its pushing hard for a quicker reopening of the school. Does that make sense given Current Conditions in the u. S. Well theres a lot of debate about that even in europe and as trump i think pointed out yesterday theyre opening schools across europe so theres no reason for the u. S. Not to do so i think you know this is a question where the scientists have to weigh in vis the politicians i dont think it is one of his craziest ideas to be honest to suggest that schools reopen im not sure that threatening to pull funding from them if they dont is is the wisest course but coming back to what dan was saying you know it does seem to be a tactic maybe to pull back in some of this this Republican Coalition that has supported him in the past in particular the suburban moms who have been crucial for him so far they were crucial in 2016 sort of semi wealthy or well off republicans living in the suburbs generally supported him in 2016 and if he loses them especially women who dont like him personally they dont like a lot of his policies but you know they stay still supported him hes going to have difficulty if he cant win that group again. You said in your Opening Statement the economy is the thing that could do him in but in fact the job numbers for june didnt look too bad in fact trump called them spectacular news and he said the economy is quote unquote roaring back you say the economy could bring him down so what about you know it could also help him when i mean if because right now there was a bank rate survey i think it was not too long ago that showed 45 percent of those people surveyed americans surveyed said their finances are the same which to me was surprising considering whats been going on the economy if if he does if theyll say that that trend upward if the recession doesnt get worse then i think thats a benefit to him you know come election time because only it would get worse. I mean it seems like it cant get better if the situation with corona virus is going to force more shutdowns if you end up with with more of a crisis that were seeing now and right now everything is exponentially going up in terms of the 1st wave which as dan mentioned isnt over yet so i dont i have a hard time seeing it Getting Better but i dont understand the stock market these days frankly i dont understand ok you know go up and vacillate the way it does in the world and that seems to be a driver of you know elections i think the difficulty is the only has 3 you have months and its very unlikely that things are going to improve markedly over the next to be and a half months and you know certainly if you look at the infection rates not just you know in the southwest but across the country i mean theres no sign that this is slowing down some people say this isnt the 1st wave this is a a forest fire and like a forest fire just going to continue to burn theres not going to be a 2nd fire youre going to have flare ups here and there but that the problem is now so big that there is no hope of bringing it under control in the same way that say you know germany managed it which of course is one reason that besides applauding his own Crisis Management the president also has repeatedly tried to point the finger at other countries and at one country in particular for causing the ravages of corona in his 1st Election Campaign rally a few weeks ago he referred to corona as kung flu heres a reminder of where he puts the blame we got hit. By the virus that came from china. And weve made a lot of progress our strategy is moving along well. Dont forget before the china plague came in who said china played before they came in we had the best job numbers weve ever had we had the best economy weve ever had were the best stock market weve ever had. Now we opened weve got to get it open because you know should we got to get it open people need it you know people get sick from the other also its not just from the virus they get sick from. All of the other things that happened you know what i mean. Is that blame game going to work in the u. S. Seems to be working so far i mean its he its amazing how much he is able to deflect by by doing that and there is no doubt that americans do feel. At least during this administration ive seen more of an isolationist sort of approach in america 1st i mean that resonates with people so i think him pointing if hes pointing a finger at china or if hes pointing the finger elsewhere i think that again is something that he benefits from but in the end what will it really succeed you know with 3 half months as matt points out so its not much time and i know youve done a good deal of research on china some critics say trump if he succeeded anything its in making china great again George Packer a new yorker writer recently said that trumps america is becoming a failed state whats your impression when you look also at how europeans see the u. S. Today well its quite a spectacle i must say and i said the whole of these things a confluence of crises with the leadership absent or has exacerbated them so it is on the other hand you know. Perhaps to a european colleagues but if you look at the wave of social unrest in the United States and school. On the sheer anger at the system make racism that prevails in our country that really isnt addressed. Hey take some heart in that i mean its a powerful powerful symbol movement that is really shaking the country i dont know that such a bad thing frankly its timely you know this is waking is up the pendant is waking us up to some things and thats a cathartic time and i dont know that thats a weakness of the United States i think you could say its a strength how it turns out i dont know but i have been heartened by the activism of a lot of people let me come back to our title which asks if corona is trumps downfall could we also put it another way that corona is perhaps revealing that trump has become americas downfall. Well im maybe more optimistic. Than that question i think that you know if anything america over the last few 100 years is shown its ability to reinvent itself and to emerge from crises like this this isnt the 1st crisis as john bolton trumps former National Security advisor said recently hes pretty optimistic about the countrys. Ability to heal after one trump term 2 trumps terms hes more skeptical and i think hes probably right about that soraya lets say trump does lose in november what legacy does he leave to his successor. Major clean up time i mean i just dont know how any president would i mean how biden is going to be able to sort of undo or unravel everything thats thats been on ravel if you will over the past 4 years so i mean its just its i dont i cannot remember i mean any time that has ever been as chaotic as these last 4 years and i think thats the legacy you know that he will leave i mean just the destruction you know in his path on every front. Dan briefly if you would polarization really now in every branch of the government executive legislative and judicial. Can really deal with that in those 1st 2 crucial years after an election if you went its really important in our system to look at the other elections that will happen in november besides a president ial one. That the democrats also capture but you already in the senate plus representing the house of representatives that creates a democratic majority that babys things to get done barack obama have them as 1st 2 years he didnt get much done so its not a guarantee but i think joe biden will have to say were not going back to something were going to build something new thank you very much thanks to all of you for being with us and thanks to you out there for tuning in and seeing soon. As. Something of a member. Good. Good good. Good good good. Good good. Good good. Africa. Huge numbers of corona virus infections in Meat Processing plant. Crude treatment of livestock transported across europe. Terrible living on what conditions for employees. How toxic is the meat industry. Global 3000. And 30 minutes on d w. Does fast food make up great. Does what we eat in the decisions. Does healthy food make us last. Were beginning to realize before that what we leave south influencing whats going on in our brain. Better brain health. In 75 w. Home. Crime fighters are back africas most successful in radio drama series continues. This season the stories focus on hate speech prevention and sustainable charcoal production. All of a sows are Available Online and of course you can share and discuss on africas Facebook Page and other social media platforms. Crime fighters tune in no. Detail of that 77 percent. Are younger than 65. Thats me and me and you. And you know what its time old boy says. The 77 percent the talk about the issues. This is where you cut. The 77 percent this weekend on d w. Going to. Play. Such. The 1st place. To c. W. News live from berlin and thousands define a ban on mask out there in. In serbia with a sitting protest against the governments Coronavirus Response to the peaceful demonstration follows 2 days of violent clashes well go live to belgrade also coming up coronavirus testing stations in israel that were one shut down for lack of use