Well thanks very much for being with us here on to the point of my guests here in the studio in sown who is a freelance journalist from china and she argues that cold war is an american a narrative in the current tensions of the expression of a dysfunctional world order also with us is morocco oil barack who is with the asia program of the German Marshall Fund she believes that transcend once he cooperation on china is key and for it to work both sides of the atlantic need to adjust their china strategy. And a very warm welcome to sudan how will turn from Johns Hopkins university an academic and former diplomat to down thinks the competition isnt china versus america its all for its hereon ism versus democracy. Thank you. Being here with me today id like to begin with you more i can in your latest book event you have written together with kleins animals in the schools the hidden hand how the Chinese Communist party is reshaping the world so my 1st question is tell us how is it doing so so the main argument that were making and that book is that the Chinese Communist party has the term and that it needs to reshape the world in order to feel safer and to make it safer for its long term regimes security at home so its motivated by wanting to stay in power in china but the idea is sort of out of the Chinese Communist policy and not the Chinese People absolutely and thats a distinction that we also make quite clearly in the book its important to distinguish between the 2 because they often get conflated and then we talk about stuff like chinese influence chinese and a furious which makes it seem like this is a thing that is really about all Chinese People which its not its about a party its a fairly large party but it really is the strategy that were seeing right now is based according is its done according to the strategies of the party and its based on the interests of the party which really is to shore up their Human Security in the long run by reshaping the world to accord more with its own rules that help ok so it wants to see a world where chinese to booze are enforced not only in china but internationally its an interesting point done in your life just publication focused on the last cold war and its legacy so i wonder what your how concerned you are about seeing this escalation in tensions now between the usa and china. Well i think you know when were confronted with disorienting times its easy to reach back to old terms this idea of a cold war 2 is an easy quick analogy but i think its kind of a lazy one you know it doesnt explain whats really happening here. You know the cold war was with the soviet union specially here in europe it was a military direct military threat. Allies socalled allies and so union were forced to being allies china it isnt representing a direct military threat to europe but it does present military challenges in it and opus ific if it is the soviet Union Although there were economic ties with it it was pretty much a you know separate east west systems we are totally interwoven with china economically and technological usually important point thats a very very different point were not we cant have it all although mr trump is trying it this decoupling its more of a realignment of our interests to understand what the competition is about in a deeply integrated world its just a very different setting that will have to engage and so the cold war think distracts us think about what the real challenges are ok. You continue troubles in troubling times for china around hong kong to fuel sort of reflections and impressions being in the last several weeks and months. Actually nothings been changed much because so many people dont even know whats going on just felt like we have one because look at what. People in china but on the other hand in hong kong. Just one day see a cath and the cup so this to chatting and the cup drivers. Normally they would just talk about whatever they want to talk about the know that the. Does not talk about this theres a new law could be in danger and is reflecting all the daily small details that a whole life has changed dramatically when you talk about a danger there are dangers there are political dangers there are economic dangers and there are also dangers to Peoples Health with the coronavirus how much of that is sort of you know which you talk about things being interwoven to us thats a package that the things that are interwoven i think of the pandemic as we all talk about so much about it and how to change the world order and the things of so if a clue for china is kind of interesting turn of events at the beginning everybody even the people inside china have this rage against the government how they covered up the initial spread of the why does it spread rage you would say and i would say that because you can say that i wouldnt say a wifes rage because even people are outrageous in china they would hide it nods express it really openly or you do is see a lot of people kind of express their feelings so they. Feel that but then someone after a couple months whats going on right now in the west part of the world like whats. Kind of give the Chinese Government legitimacy again see how weve defeated the virus but the rest of the world hasnt so they see it as a chance where they can raise themself as one earth as a virus and thats also why the diplomacy has became more aggressive because they really want to establish the image. Terms like just in recent days to describe the climate between washington and beijing a point of no return of ideological spiral or race to the bottom if it is an ideological spiral was the bottom. Thats a really hard question but i dont really want to talk too much about i mean we talk about the no no i mean. We talk about the new cold war that is coming and i dont think were quite there and i do agree that maybe that frame is not ideal as a whole but again a cold war is vastly preferable to a hot war and i do think that if things really escalate quickly they could end up in a hot war i do think that some of the tensions are vastly underestimated especially in europe in terms of you know any clash that would arise over a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait its something that in europe we dont really think about much so its a healthy relationship between between rivals and not enemies. Well i think no one wants a war or conflict but we could slide into one because of the way the different sides are positioning themselves we talk about hong kong which china has territorial ambitions elsewhere as well weve seen most recently a conflict with india over border lanes there are territorial claims on taiwan there is the whole fact that china is building artificial islands in the middle of the ocean so that they can extend its Maritime Claims despite that being completely against International Law and that parallels the. Navigation routes which actually german trade for instance is totally dependent so there are bigger principles here at stake which hong kong is sort of the most emblematic but theres theres more going on than that ok so. It doesnt look as though theyre going to start falling anytime in the near future the problem is that the rhetoric can escalate and the 2 sides because they each have their own domestic reasons right now to push it that they could bump into each other in ways they dont anticipate ok rhetoric just recently u. S. Secretary of state. Washingtons position on china here is a taste of what he had to say. The president. Has made very clear we need a strategy to protect the American Economy and indeed our way of life through free world must triumph over this new tyranny. And just what you have to say about what the secretary of state on to say that what you read into this is somebody with a lot of background and experience here in the diplomatic field while there was a magic speech and one has to understand theres a bit of domestic politics go. On here in terms of the u. S. Election Campaign Trump is trying to paint joe biden as weak on china and what theyre doing now is everything they can do to show that i dont believe thats true in fact i think theres probably a pretty broad consensus United States now across the party is that china does present the systemic challenge the difference is that trump is trying to force sort of force allies to come on his course without consultation or any other type of effort i think a by the administration although you know and to speaking personally would try to create a coalition of democracies to confront the issues that china is raising would be a very different approach but the goal in a way is similar that we have to realize the systemic challenge that china is now posing and we have to look at a clear eyed. Chins a number im curious about the sort of the position of the chinese leaders here at this point in time because they always seem to be a little bit bemused a little bit they think quite decide what to make of the decoupling that you have mentioned after decades of the 2 sergeants moving ever ever closer together that is a very important juncture and i think that was right that most of the countries have a lot of problems territorys and china at the same thing when we look at it a lot of people think its the time as ambition to expand or at the moment the south like a tiger has its ambitions to really grab is values and then of title but the real thing as we look at it what for example president xi is doing is he dont need to for the outside of china or actually for the things that of china because there are different sort of a collision zone holds a real power had china is it actually the president or is actually a large a different schools of waving the party has a struggle with that and battles against each other there are several heavy. That behind she and also behind the times party so whatever he does sometimes actually not to show not even show it to the people not even to sun to. Spark off of the nationalistic feelings off the people but actually to show the other how the personalities behind the cartoons that i was actually the right candidate i am the one who can lead the country to the right development margaux a complex picture absolutely and i mean a good reason whereas with a lot of what ive been saying i mean i dont really common so much about power struggles behind the scenes because to me that id treat that as a black box but i do think a lot of what the Chinese Communist party is doing is not necessarily its not coming from position of strength and we are now are here and were super secure and what we have and therefore we can now spread whatever you want to spread its about shoring up domestic legitimacy by making other countries fall in line and by making of a countrys phrase what the party is doing china is traditionally a society tortured by insecurity about what might happen next where it might go next well i mean in the ready for comment no i think i mean obviously i mean one i think that applies to a lot of Different Countries but in the case of the Chinese Government there is the additional problem and this is the specter that is often raised by the party itself you have the soviet union that served as a massive lesson what not to do wrong and then when you really want to scare you as you pull out examples such as romania you pull out iraq you pull out libya so i think it doesnt make a difference whether youre elected into office and therefore when you leave its only because you got someone else got elected or whether you do feel those that are. Going to have that when we do get kicked out it might get rather ugly and i do think that is not the case theyre not facing that but it is certainly something that the parted keep stressing and trying only a lot to think of for the. Campout it did take a turn in the past 30 years as well because chinas Economic Growth didnt give a lot of legitimacy to. At the moment thats why its a combination of a sense of insecurity and at the same time a success that made the insecurity or the complex even more complex than just argue that the roots of that success are now changing their export driven model is changing they cant continue the way they did and i think thats creating lots of uncertainties within the ruling leadership which is essentially afraid of its own people. How do you govern a you know 1000000000 people ive had contact you know conversations with chinese officials that basically say that. And so this extreme insecurity about their own society does drive some of these actions one has to take that elation but that doesnt mean we accept it we have to deal with the external implications of what this policy is doing and that brings us back to into the conflicts that were have said that the system like that but is it a more. Or does it actually come from china i think thats a question to ask because it was this that this is the vibratory that would want to impose a system outside of the world but actually has that bishop well i mean if you look at the official statements that have been coming out recently you do see a new interim such as chinese with the chinese case that they do want to more aggressively promote that model i do think the final goal behind bob is still to get in a National Approval off the system to use at home but it is wanting to explore that and wanting to also make sure that other countries dont go against party dogma really is its its a side effect of what its doing domestically but it does have International Repercussions and those ambitions have certainly got up over the past 5 to 10 years. Ok im going to im going to ask the my team now to skip one report and move on to another report because id like to go on to the situation since world war 2 the u. The u. S. Has been the main western power in the pacific the following the defeat of japan china has slowly but surely emerged as what it is today americas main rival in the region. For 2 years u. S. President trump has been imposing punitive tariffs on china for example on steel and aluminum fact goods with the trade of several 100000000000. 00 trump wants to punish china for industrial espionage and products piracy and force the country to open its socalled closed markets we will save the copyrights. Their intellectual property that is so vital to our security and to our prosperity we will hold or we will defend our workers china responded with its own punitive tariffs against American Products but International Trade agreement confirms china is increasing its imports from the usa at the same time china is pushing ahead with its one belt one road Global InfrastructureDevelopment Project building railways and roads purchasing ports and using billions of state subsidies to drive forward the expansion of key technologies. China winning the trade. China willing to try to i dont think anyone is winning the trade war i do think going back to the us i think a lot of the stuff that the United States has been doing i actually agree with a lot of the things that have been happening the problem is that the trade war has. Being a pushback not no i think i think a lot and in many ways i think this is long overdue the problem is with the president and the Trump Administration its never quite sure whether they have accepted what china the chinese system and are really just trying to push back or whether they are genuinely trying to change what the c. C. P. House structurally at home and that is incredibly difficult i know that the same thing theyre demanding. Structural reforms of china and what i keep telling people is incredibly difficult to get the party to do something it doesnt want to do and this really shows in the trade for results because trump has been throwing care of at china and hes been playing hardball and where is the u. S. The more asking nicely but even playing hardball basically all you got was what could be charitably summarized as an overrated purchase order of soybeans and whatnot which may or may not even go through in the end right so this kind of shows the difficulty of wanting to change that system the Chinese Communist party has set up its if they dont want to do it its very unlikely that youre going to get them to do it and its only a little bit more about the Road Initiative because i am intrigued to the. Extent to which the its obviously a vast Global Economic project but there are a lot of people a lot of commentators say you could pull one lever and it could become a vast Global Military project its basically i mean the baltimore is a big basket where everybody tries to put their own projects into it there is of course an Economic Perspective to it about you know exporting some of the overcapacity that china has but it is it one yes it does already have military aspects but i think the more significant part of it really is geopolitical and realigning countries interests away from existing alliances and to make sure that a lot of countries that may be either in alliances with the United States or that might be uncertain about the position theyre going to take further drawn towards china by by having them vested interests in continuing to getting some investment and economic relations and that therefore they stay neutral in conflicts and later might even side with china ok. Lets go back to the Chinese People were talking about just an expansion aggression conflict is that what the. These people want from their leadership especially connected to was why those of the vote voted initiative because the all chinese term that strengthens the survey teles ation of the nation as a glorious ations the lies ation and thats the narrative that the Chinese Government is using us to enhance its of legitimacy but the same time its not only just a trick because if you ask people why theres a harvard thing that might 93 percent of the Chinese People are actually really satisfied it was the governments ruling which is a little flat today actually you feel just asked of random people on the streets from big cities in china people probably would tell you the really is the core of the governments so thats why we also talk about is it the a system change is that what the other part of the world wants to do or is that what the Chinese People want to do dont hummels and youre looking at a little bit. Skeptical Public Opinion polls pressure if theyre held in an leninist country so i wouldnt use that as my Reference Point for you know i think the road is actually a very innovative effort to connect countries its using connectivity is a new tool of diplomacy in ways that the west had not figured out and so i think the chinese have come up with a new way of approaching countries thats beyond to the traditional diplomacy of treaties and all these types of things hes never just interrupt i think im going in your direction as well. As a big african audience and people in africa you know when you talk about the belt and Road Initiative people really want to know what it means for them where this is now going well if you you know some would say if you control the eurasia you control the world and others would say if you control the rim lands of eurasia so europe over to the countries around the maritime regions you control the seats and what the belt and road does is try to do both at the same time plus the added digital so road. On top of that yeah so its a very interesting thing i think its a huge challenge because the west doesnt really have an answer to it the United States is really been part of that the e. U. Keeps waffling around whether they have a connectivity strategy doesnt doesnt you know head up and i think thats kind of the the why its not the cold war anymore this is a very different kind of challenge that we have to engage in on its merits its not something of the past as something very much in the future. I want to come back to the Chinese People so many of them study abroad so many of them travel abroad these days they see what life in the west is like which is obviously not fact. So they want what is one of their deepest profoundest political you know me. I am not going to sit here and speak on behalf of 1400000000 people of what they really want i think its a very very picture i think yeah there its true that on some level there is support of the government i dont know if its quite as high a service fine because again there is the factor of doing a survey in an authoritarian country. But i do think there are some ways of support that but then it really you have even though the party says we speak for everyone you have more of opinion. Than people think you find very lively debates in china its getting more difficult to have those debates because the party wants to enforce a certain consensus but they still exist and the fact that they still exist despite this really shows you how of course its complex people have different beliefs people have different hopes and that is true for china as for everywhere else. And actually i think especially for people who actually studied abroad and they actually sometimes feel even closer connection with china provides because i mean its actually hard to argue that Chinese Technology provides such a level of convenience and one Chinese People have to choose convenience and privacy convenience so all this kind of little thing is reminding people who studied abroad supposedly be able to accept the democratic ideas that theyre actually not able to accept it because they were really deeply connected to a value that they go up with is actually really hard to get rid of. Summarising confucian sentence. I think we talk about trade wars these are large skirmishes the bigger the bigger war started 30 years ago when we made a bet that we would integrate china into the Global Economic system based on the idea that gradually it would also transform itself and be open i think theres a realization states that we lost the bet i think in europe theres still a debate on whether the bet is still on or not i think the german economics minister still thinks he can change china through selling more cars germany i dont think in other parts of europe there is that consensus anymore the question will be can we and europe come together to confront the chinese challenge together or will we go our own way great stuff thank you all 3 for your ideas that i thank you for joining me here in the studio and to the point well be looking at. The notion of a possible cold war between china and the us and i hope we can punch you think until next time around by by inches. 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