Will putin react. Thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and my guest in the studio bello spawn all go there in dover from the Research Center for Eastern European studies at the university of bremen she says active support for the wounded bellicose leader would only damage russia the mood in minsk is not as a pro russian nor pro european also with this is causing a dont dilute experts on russia and Eastern Europe in a former moscow correspondent she says its almost inconceivable that russia would simply tolerate a democratic turn around. And a woman. Own. Who is from the w. C. Russian desk he argues that some. Nothing has happened in belarus that putin really needs to react to. An interesting comment will come to that shortly 1st of all the old girl will go there and over dramatic events in your home country are we seeing the final days of Alexander Lukashenko. When i think we have to make a difference what the people. These brutus decided that it is protesting and what the president and his elite so seeing because i think there is quite a huge difference so for me it is obvious that the vast majority of people in belarus do not see the president as the legitimate president anymore i mean its not for the 1st time that the elections were falsified and valorous will know that it has been happening for 20 years already very cautious of these the last days of president lukashenko. These could be the last may be weeks months whatever but i could still imagine a scenario where when he would come back to the oppressions and a lot will depend on his communication with russia its a very important Factor Analysis so there could be a return to the status quo of 26 years. Not in that sense maybe for him but not for the society this aside to has already changed and he will never be that ligi to me anymore as he used to be a quiet for a long time. But we definitely see that the relations between state and society has to have changed in belarus and we also see that you know also on the level of local office or it is and also some cases within the elites people start consider a t. And its really of the last days of him so its very good question that you ask i think that everybody in belarus is asking out this question a lot really depends on what those people who are asking this question now will do it tomorrow because enoch is in the door blew do you say you are worried for the brave people of belarus why the next. I mean i have been last time to have been a rose in 2011 and then i witnessed already how people react how all moments on react on very small protests i saw in 2011 and i mean we saw the videos and photographs from from torture people in jail in their novels and i dont know if i would be so brave as a bit of those in to go on the streets today and to protest especially given that you are convinced that Virginie Putin is not going to allow democracy to take hold in belarus what makes you so convinced. This is a threat to his own power because. Putin hes an author a tarion leader and he said several times that he would not tolerate a system of regime change provoked by mass protests on the streets because if that would work better was this would be a sign and its already assigned to the opposition and to normal people in russia that they could also that this is possible not only in theory but in practice its a big issue for russian government because most norman see whats happening in the. Street protests is the next in a row of mass protest in the former soviet republic red georgia ukraine even care just on for years trying to prevent such scenarios in russia so what its going moscow 20112012 its a similar happenings on the streets similar must protest with huge enthusiasm from the muscles in the russian government and Security Forces were very professional in suppressing these protests or im afraid i hope for. The best but im afraid that could be not be the last they saw of washington probably going to move putin is going to very long and interesting political biography and there was a time when he. Sort of flirted with democracy do we know so we agree that he now does it no longer does democracy. Put declare its liberal on saturday couple of couple of years ago an interview with Financial Times he pronounced liberal democracy that the liberal side enemies of the russian state since this street protest in russia 2011th 2012 and it we have a few beak wave of state repression in russia since the time. Why even given this sort of this cautious or feeling that you have been expressing why have people been willing to go out onto the streets no way in such numbers why have they been willing to take between us and be in prison. While there are quite a lot of reasons for that and actually it happened long before the election itself we have to understand that the society of valorous was politicized at large. Before the election so i mean what what what was saw in the last week and also a several weeks before with this new you know female trio that were mobilizing people so in their regions they just gave a new dimension to the health protest most people will read to politicize and that not as due to the in consequent information policy during the pandemic so people were either not tech by the actions taken by the state that were not techie by the way expressions of the president himself because he made really some victim blaming expressions in terms of people who died from coronavirus or exams for example well of he told people Something Like ah how can you leave if your weight is a 130 kilos or why are walking on the streets if youre already over 70 or 80 years old he was talking about you know therefore my actor in the tips of this person was a real a well known and he never apologized so its really a people were shocked and its one of the factors and that we have also comic factor as a new faces in politics and its just coincided all those factors that coincide it. I think is just you know the best thing for the question that he had all this factor is that the year of election so people will avoid it not to contend with it state and also there are there and great personally with look that united under the slogan everybody but one which means everybody but the question and thats why they were actually ready to to give their votes for one of the guy who is not a petition sheet you know. Housewife wife. Blogger there that is a fine for me very highest high protest most of society so people just dont care who they just want to get rid of the president whos in power for 26 years ok everybody but one Alexander Lukashenko a very. Strong man is however still in power he only travels by helicopter these days were told lets take a quick listen to how he can visit is the situation developing. Now we need to approve a new constitution so the opposition wont be against it it needs to be approved in a referendum because our previous constitution was approved in a referendum. And based on the new constitution and if you want it we will hold new elections for the Parliament Presidency and local government bodies. Because you know what do you say the prospects of fresh elections would with the opposition accept the elections if the president looks like you were going to stand again for the presidency. I heard. You told you before maybe you were answer because you were at this news about it was reported. In the correction it was one of the few gross of the. Joint staff joined a month of the opposition declared that they are in a position would allow the question got to take part of the new election. Interesting. But i mean what. I guess as only he wants to win time and hes not alluding to the it is all about me its all about momentum here because. Its only about how important a momentum is because the opposition it seems to happen quickly them it was hugely important youre completely right it was there and i think of the 1st if youre so very dramatic pictures with great completely different dynamics that 10 years later then they slater because now they have like a kind of. A slowing economic and the numbers of people on the streets are decreasing in europe and the union took 10 days dorgan as a special summit on their what was 10 days. Yesterday before 5000 people in the streets in the Bennett Place in the pen its very means which is like a very low number compared to the previous administrations and the next one will be on sunday so 4 days without street actions interesting as weve already seen that have been protests in the past and very few people would accept that this is not a time for change the some have been absolutely euphoric and thats becoming a little bit more questionable as things as regards momentum change in the way that weve just been hearing. I think this is incredible weve never seen the people of belarus this happy this free illiteracy and you are incredible we love you. And this shows that were all united and that we want to protect our right to vote freely and stage free elections. The protesters are related but they have still not one. That learned to sky has become their leadership take care of her husband who had actually been a candidate who was arrested in a statement from exile in lithuania she confirmed. Paired to take on the responsibility and the role of leader of our country. The nation must calm down. We must stay united. So that new elections can be held. And the protests are continuing and many workers in states and juries and that state t. V. Are going on strike how long can look at showing go hold out. The answer to that question will depend on how much the opposition can remain united is the opposition united or is dead a beginning to see. Where have i think we have to be a bit cautious when its a position because its not really you know this classic Party Position and it would think about when we say a position here in the best its really kind of a Grassroots Movement that we are observing now and so i mean as a former housewife and then we have a representative from other teams of the most public candidates but this Coordination Committee of that we are observing now its really not that you know in this position that we used to so there are people from you know people from Civil Society. People from also from striking teams from the state on enterprises there are just people well known people of you know who have gained some popularity that. Prize you know do you in your heart of hearts believe that you have a leader that you have a figurehead who couldnt deal do not movement they still do not have the lead in that has been the problem. Begins to to be a problem because that it was actually more or less i think their position their position actually because because they didnt have a leader because people people learned to sort themselves people learned to be solitary and people sort of denies they sort of organized through social media and so on so it was ok for them to be about leader in a distant. That and just you know a symbolic figure a technical candidate but now it could be a problem because somebody should you know initiate those negotiations and there should be some figure who also would be you know seen also by the authorities as a serious she get because its not such a figure for the president by no way because he doesnt just doesnt believe you know in women power and so on so i would say that this could have been this former minister of culture and use that a lot who is now in this committee that if this everything is still of the very beginning and we dont know if if they maybe already have some contacts within this committee for you just mentioned women and women have played a very prominent part in the process movements in recent weeks are taking to the streets in their thousands often wearing white and carrying flowers its been a peaceful protest against state violence some 7000 people have been arrested in many places badly beaten so theres a lot of talk there about a new generation of women coming to the fore in. A new generation of women in belarus. Its difficult to answer because i have not been i couldnt travel when i was the last years because i was not the visa but this one point actually where we can also talk about the possibilities of European Union because the. Engagement the contacts between european Civil Societies in the European Union and the levels they were. Tense of fights during the last years and i think this also has a kind of a an impact on the also on young women on generations how about womens rights and so on this might be weird to me too for young women i read. Somebody saying that until very recently the word feminist and semitism the the the idea you smile were hardly used to move very often sort of negative categories not giving to change we are told well as section is a reg question its actually ive been thinking about that for weeks its a very paradox attention that we have now because from the one hand we have a woman here openly admits that shes actually just a housewife and she is there only to help her husband cannot of the prison and at the same time you know to rescue the rest of the recent society from the dictator but she openly admits that she wants to come back as long as you know then you elections that there. But from the other hand of course this this female trio that weve seen 3 weeks before elections of course it gave some other discourse to that they were saying politics because you know women were not see there is you know some kind of serious figures and i mentioned it himself or he said that but i was and constitution of course was not written for women of more than negative direction came at once on his words and i think it was also one of his biggest mistakes before the actions because people supported that line and her team actually out of protest and out of solidarity so it was not that much about politics of course they also wanted new elections but i did not think of course that that people saw a president in her it was just you know the sign of sort of direct into shock a whatever happens were just were just on your side and we do not agree with this for the president for one of the point we must come back to is it because you mentioned the role of the e. U. The e. U. Has issued this statement saying we stand side by side with the people of belarus how much comfort will i give to people in both groups or not i think on the one hand of course they need. Solidarity they need moral support on the other hand its very dangerous and we see you know that russian propaganda already is working and doing their job that they want to discredit the protests and the other. Is a movement finance and organized by some western actors this was said by the question go and also you can read this today and yesterday on all the different channels from Russian Politicians and from state around the russia saying the same scene through every so called colorful revolution in the. In the former soviet republic and in there are up countries as well so basically the same there as you from russia is all the time this is from sponsored by very stern countries or very the United States by the European Countries regime changes. On the. Process not not on the legal way by elections but on the way of street protest so its really from russia you know its been said very very often the bridge the protesters themselves people like im sure have been sort of been saying you know this is not about being anti russian improve european absolutely not thats the thats the the most important single point people have been wanting to make i think we have to differentiate when we think about the Russian Society and European Union. From the one hand people expects a desperate and this holiday which is already there right and there is also you know 5 some funds. To help from the European Union to help those who suffered from oppressions and you know Civil Society support uncertainties outside interference from the adults and thats why its a differentiation because on the other on the other hand they should be there are cautious not to make this impression that you know they are kind of protein aid and also within this you public can meet i mean they already offered mediation or actually they asked for mediation from the European Union but i think this you know mediation observation you had to be were cautious because it could really cause a very emotional reaction from russia if you are talking about mediation with this core donation can lead to i think it would be reasonable to at least try to invite russia so that to show that these protests i really am not until russian or not or not china or whatever that its really a very internal problem of belarus says that i want to new president and then most important thing for russia is that belarus would not become craning in sense of. And this is also not true its not to embarrass its not until russian and its better just to let it so be so and not to try you know and bring this geopolitics within this society and to to i think i think it would be very difficult and i dont know if it really makes sense for European Union to try to explain to putin that they have no the geopolitical interests even if they dont have any way putin already sets that and other off and Russian Politicians so they need this this image of the expecting that actually from the coordination can make tame maybe they quote stress that once again that they are really not i think it was well its problematic that they are talking on the. Need to could also have said ok were actually interested in the interest of all our neighbors is important i think this is the message that puts an open to to hear it but is this a wonder is this episode is this chain of events now is this an opportunity for them and putin or a threat. I dont see that as a threat for him its not a exist cyrus reaction or discuss socalled street protests as typical or for evolution because there are so exciting their actions and theyre making distractions perfect for years because the orange revolution in ukraine 2004 was a huge surprise for us in government and state authorities so they are back that of the race and now theyre collecting experience with these street protests not only in russia but outside of russia as well so its for them its like collecting know how to deal with these kind of situation for the future if Something Like this would happen in russia which is. Right now probably not rated or not very realistic but theyre collecting experience and know how to deal with this kind of instability inside of a country and suddenly putin has become an expert in disruptive politics how far do you think hes going to go in disrupting the belorussian party here i think that russian government getting support from russia in terms of expertise how to suppress the street protest how to deal with this not only to beat the people and not only to torture people in front of the camera but that to do you on the more subtle way more. More brits is very you know. More precise very sort of. The old couple of symbolic figures probably or to make the future british in the thousands of people in the jail but. More so so. Little of information distribution. So i mean its already. In the storage is already did the fall of longer before elections all the most important key gore is all the position candidates or potential candidates because they were never never registered and everybody had at least some kind of experience in st paul because they were already in jail far before election so what were seeing now is a Grassroots Movement and thats thats make it problematic for the government and just to come back to this russia problem because i do and does tend to that of course for ports and it is you know kind of bad example for russians to show while people you can do it yourself but at the same time im asking myself what would he get i mean he would do laws. As long as bill i would see that intervening i dont know neither to one that some other and more vicious form. Of russia would lose the most Friendly Society in terms of russia because the russians and most friendly. To other nations and as a very important soft power instrument and russias already present their most below sense because russian Russian Media are still very popular in belarus Culture Church family connections and so on mentality also a bit cut and so on so its really you know it will not disappear even as long as president is not there i mean. I met this dependence will not. Influence will not disappear also it cannot dependence from russia is huge so i dont really see the point why would she do that because he still cant have influence on the. There are potential president ial candidates very quick. This is very important yeah no. Chance for putin i think its also a chance for him whats happening because. The relationship between putin is quite difficult and im not sure if really wants to keep. It isnt it better for him to get rid of him because he didnt. Recognize crimea being russian. How do you sleep at night. You go from like. Beginning to feel despairing about the situation i mean i think despairing at the very 1st night i was just. The whole mind. I have to leave it there im afraid its been a very interesting discussion if youve enjoyed it as much come back next week. Did you think your decision in chinese childrens room. Coronavirus do they should be kept in the morning little a olympian pursues Online Education by contrast High School Graduates to town fights for personal freedoms but you dont have to be denied for that if you. Leave the 3000. And 30 minutes on the d w. Y t they become victims of human trafficking. Young men nigerian women. His new job none to love him is me isnt just going to. Lure deurope under false pretenses they end up on the street. Trafficked women. In 75 minutes on t w. The power of foreigners. Where i come from i never saw the sun where lipstick and you know nothing brings it on the sun was always a man since the portuguese word for sun its masculine when i moved to germany as a 10 year old i watched the do it on t. V. And that would change how i see the world because into a month of. This family. Found fame now but the side of a good use so much time with the ponytail instead of a deep voice extra when the guy seemed absolutely incredible. I realized how language shapes and thinking how definitions of time not only in man company may just put our whole 1st hand can also roll. It inside save my life and was one of the reasons i became and joined in this is a mystery talent and i use my words to how quick intercultural on this and my name is the one where you and i were to tell people. This is deja vu news live from berlin russian doctors will not all surprise the medical transfer of lexie nepali to germany the russian Opposition Leader is fighting for his life at this hour in a siberian hospital after suspected poisoning doctors have stopped his wife from visiting him as well a medal backplane is waiting to bring the volley to germany for treatment. Also coming out accepting the democratic nomination joe biden bows to the end of what he calls a season of dark american