Impact will the growing crisis have on their russia and its all for its hereon leader Vladimir Putin so long to the point we ask belarus protests how will putin react. Thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and my guest in the studio are belarus born all go there in doha from the Research Center for Eastern European studies at the university of brim and she says active support for the wounded bellicose leader would only damage russia the mood in minsk is not as a pro russian nor pro european also with us is ina dont loot experts on russia and Eastern Europe in a former moscow correspondent she says its almost inconceivable that russia would simply tolerate a democratic. And a woman. Who is from the w. s russian desk he argues that so far nothing has happened in belarus that putin really needs to react to. An interesting comment will come to that shortly 1st of all the girl will go there and over dramatic events in your home country are we seeing the final days of Alexander Lukashenko. When i think we have to make a difference that people you know these brutus decided that it is protest and what the president and his at the scene because i think there is quite a huge difference. For me it is obvious that the vast majority of people there is to not see the president as the legitimate president anymore i mean its not for the 1st time that the elections were falsified and valorous we know that it has been happening for 20 years already very cautious of these the last days of president lukashenko. These could be the last may be weeks months whatever but i could still imagine a scenario where when he would come back to the oppressions and a lot will depend on his communication with russia its a very important Factor Analysis so there could be a return to the status quo of 26 years. Not in that sense maybe for him but not for the society this aside has already changed and he will never be that the legitimate anymore and as he used to be quiet for a long time. But we definitely see that the relations between state in society has to have changed in belarus and we also see that you know also on the level of local office or it is and also some cases within their elites people start consider a 1000 if its really of the last days of him so its a very good question that you ask and i think that everybody in belarus is asking out this question a lot really depends on what those people who are asking this question now will do it tomorrow because enoch is in the door blew do you say you are worried for the brave people of belarus why the next. I mean i have been last time to ban all those in 2011 and there i witnessed already how people react how all men and so on react on very small protests of all want i saw in 2011 and i mean we saw the videos and photographs from from torture of people in jail in their rules and i dont know if i would be so brave as a bit of those in to go on the street today and to protest especially given that you are convinced it really made putin is not going to allow democracy to take hold in belarus what makes you so convinced. This is a threat to his own power because. Putin he is an author a tarion leader and he said several times that he would not tolerate a system a regime change provoked by mass protests on the streets because if that would work and there was this would be a sign and its already assigned to the opposition and to normal people in russia that they could also that this is possible not only in theory but in practice its a big issue for russian government because russian government see whats happening in the. Street protests next in the role of mass protest in the former soviet republic right georgia ukraine even kyrgyzstan for years trying to prevent such scenarios in russia for storing moscow 20112012 its a similar happenings on the streets similar must protest with the huge in 2000 from muslims in the russian government and Security Forces were very professional in their suppressing these protests no im afraid i hope for. The best but im afraid that could be not be the last they saw of location let me put it its going to very long an interesting political biography and there was a time when. Sort of flirted with democracy do we know so we agree that he now does no longer does democracy. Declare its liberal i said he said there hootie couple of couple of years ago an interview with Financial Times he pronounced liberal democracy a debt liberal side enemies of the russian state since in this street protest in russia 2011th 2012 and it we have a b. Crave of state repression in russia since the time. Why isnt the given this sort of this cautious or feeling that you have been expressing why have people been willing to go out onto the streets no way in such numbers why have they been willing to take between us and be imprisoned well there are quite a lot of reasons for that and actually it happened long before the election itself we have to understand that this society bellerose was politicized at large months before the election so i mean what what what was saw in the last week and also several weeks before with this new you know female trio that were mobilizing people so in their regions they just gave a new dimension to the help protest movements but people were a good politicised and that not at us due to the in consequent information policy during the pandemic so people were either not tech by the actions taken by the state that were not techie by the way expressions of the president himself because he made really some victim blaming expressions in terms of people who died from coronavirus or exam for example well of he told people Something Like. Can you leave if your weight is a 130 kilos or why are you walking on the streets if youre already over 70 or 80 years old he was talking about you know that for my actor and big tips key this person was a real a well known and he never apologized so its really a people were shocked and its one of the factors and then we have also comic effect as a new faces in politics and its just coincided all those factors that coincided. I think is just you know a desk thing of who question that he had all those factors at the year of election so people will get not to contend with it state and also there are there and great personally with look i shant go so that united under the slogan everybody but one which means everybody but the question and thats why they were actually ready to to give their votes for one of the who is not a political you know. Housewife the wife. Of blogger that that is a fine for me or very highest high protest most of society so people just dont care who they just want to get rid of the president whos in power for 26 years ok everybody but one Alexander Lukashenko the. Strongman is however still in power he only travels to by helicopter these days were told lets take a quick listen to how he in this it is the situation in belarus developing. We need to approve a new constitution so the opposition wont be against it it needs to be approved in a referendum because our previous constitution was approved in a referendum. And based on the new constitution and if you want it we will hold new elections for the Parliament Presidency and local government bodies. Because you know what do you say the prospects of fresh elections would the opposition accept the elections if president look at trying to were going to stand again for the presidency. I heard. Before maybe you were answer because you were at this news about what was reported to the marina president who was one of the few girls of the. Joint staff amount of the opposition declared that they are in a position would allow the question could to take part of the new election. Interesting. But i mean what i. Said i guess its only he wants to win time and hes not alluding to the it is all about me its all about momentum here because. It would tell me about how important a momentum is because the opposition it seems to happen quickly in them it was hugely important youre completely right it was then i think of the 1st if youre so very dramatic pictures with great completely different dynamics that 10 years later 10 days later because now we have like a kind of a slowing economic and the numbers of people on the streets are decreasing in europe and you know took 10 days dorgan has a special summit on 10 days and. Yesterday on day 5000 people in the streets in the Bennett Place in the bennetts government which is like a very low number compared to the previous demonstrations and the next one will be on sunday so 4 days without street actions interesting as weve already seen there have been protests in the past and very few people would accept that this is not a time for change but some have been absolutely euphoric and thats becoming a little bit more questionable as things as regards momentum change in the way that weve just been hearing. I think this is incredible weve never seen the people of bella bruce this happy this free delivery you are incredible we love you. This shows that were all united and that we want to protect our right to vote freely and stage free elections. The protesters are related but they have still not one. That learned tikhonov sky has become their leadership figure her husband who had actually been a candidate was arrested in a statement from exile in lithuania she confirmed. Paired to take on the responsibility and the role of leader of our country. Nation must calm down. We must stay united. Thats a new elections can be held. And the protests are continuing many workers in states and threes and at state t. V. Are going on strike how long can look at shingle hold out. The answer to that question will depend on how much the opposition can remain united is the opposition united or is beginning to see period where have i think we have to be a bit cautious when its a position because its not really you know this classic Party Position and it would think about when we say a position here in the best its really kind of a Grassroots Movement that we are observing now and. As a former housewife and then we have they were presented different from other teams of the most public candidates but this can lead to that to be observateur now its really not the you know not that this position that we used to so there are people from you know people from Civil Society. People from also from striking teams from the state on enterprises there are just people well known people. Who have gained some popularity that. Prize you know do you in your heart of hearts believe that you have a leader that you have a figurehead who couldnt deal do not movement they still do not have the lead in that has been the problem till now what will begin to to be a problem because that it was actually more or less i think their position all of their position actually won because they didnt have a leader because. People learned to sort themselves out to be solitary and people sort of denies they sort of organized through social media and so on so it was ok for them to be about leader and understood. And im just you know a symbolic figure technical candidate but now it could be a problem because somebody should you know initiate those negotiations and there should be some few ground who are also would be you know seen also by the authorities as a serious he get because its not such a figure for the president by no way because he doesnt just doesnt believe you know in women power and so on so i would say that this could have been this former minister of culture and use that a lot now in this committee that if this everything is still of the very beginning and we dont know if youve been maybe already have some contacts within this Committee Circle you just mentioned women women have played a very prominent part in the process movements in recent weeks are taking to the streets in their thousands often wearing white and carrying flowers its been a peaceful protest against state violence some 7000 people have been arrested in many places badly beaten so theres a lot of talk now about a new generation of women coming to the fore in belarus. A new generation of women in belarus its difficult to answer because i have not been i couldnt travel through the last years because i was not at the visa but this one point actually where we can also talk about the possibilities of European Union because the. The engagement the context between european Civil Societies in the European Union and the levels they were i 10 i said tense of 5 during the last years and i think this also has a kind of a an incorrect on the also on young women on generations how about womens rights and so on thats why i think we should we took our young women i read. Somebody saying that until very recently the word feminist and semitism the the the idea use my own. Hardly used them were very often sort of negative categories that is really giving to charity which we are told well as section is a very good question is actually ive been thinking about that for weeks its a very paradox attrition that we have now because from the one hand that we have a woman has openly admits that shes actually just a housewife and she is there only to help her husband come out of the prison and at the same time you know to rescue the rest of the recent society from the dictator but she openly admits that she wants to come back as long as you know the new elections are there. But from the other hand of course this. Trio that weve seen 3 weeks before elections of course it gave some other discourse to that they were written in politics because you know women were not see there is you know some kind of serious he christened it will question mentioned it himself or his said that the recent constitution of course was not written for women and for more some negative reaction came in at once on his words and i think it was also one of his biggest mistakes before the actions because people supported that line and her team actually out of protest and out of solidarity so it was not that much about politics of course they also wanted new elections but i did not think of course that people saw a president in her it was just you know the sign of sort of direct into shock a whatever happens were just were just on your side and we do not agree with this for the president for this woman reported we must come back to get him because you mentioned the role of the e. U. The e. U. Has issued this statement saying we stand side by side with the people of belarus how much comfort will give to people in both groups or not. I think on the one hand they need. Solidarity they need moral support on the other hand its very dangerous and we see you know that russian propaganda already is working and doing their job that they want to discredit the protests and the other. Is a movement finance and organized by some western actors as was said by the question go and also you can read this today and yesterday on all the different channels from Russian Politicians and from state. Russia saying the same same to every socalled colorful revolution in the. In the former soviet republic and in there are up countries as well so its basically the same narrative from russia is all the time this is from sponsored by very stern countries who are very the United States by the european countries. Changes on the. Street process not not on a legal way by elections but on the way of street protest so its i mean from russia you know its been said very very often the good the protesters themselves people like holger im sure have been some who have been saying you know this is not about being anti russian improve european absolutely not thats the thats the the most important single point people have been wanting to make i think we have to differentiate when we think about them and society and European Union. From the one hand people expect from a dairy and this holiday which is already there right and there is also you know 5 some funds. To help from the European Union to help those who suffered from oppressions and you know Civil Society to support these outside interference the energy that it wants and thats why its a differentiation because on the while the other on the other hand they you should be there are cautious not to make this impression that you know they are kind of protein aid and also within this you public can meet i mean they already offered mediation or actually they. Asked for mediation from the European Union. I think this you know mediation observe ation you have to be aware of cautious because it could really cause a very emotional but a reaction from russia so people are talking about mediation with this core donation can lead to i think it would be reasonable to at least try to invite russia so that to show that these protests i really am not on to russian or not not prone not to approach and whatever that its really a very internal problem of belarus is that i wanted a new president and the most important thing for russia is that they would not become. In sense of. And this is also not true its not true doris its not until russian and its better just to tell that to be so and not to try you know and bring this geopolitics within this society and to just to i think i think it would be very difficult and i dont know if it really makes sense for European Union to try to explain to putin that they have no the geopolitical interests even if they dont have any way putin already has that and other off and Russian Politicians so they need this this image of they might be expecting that actually from the coordination can make team made the fake quote stress that once again that theyre really not i think it was well its problematic that they are talking only about the unity and i think that Coordination Committee could also have said ok were actually interested in the interest of all our neighbors is important i think this is the message that putin is hoping to hear but is this a wonder is this episode is this chain of events now is this an opportunity for putin or a threat. I dont see that as a threat for him its not of exist cyrus in reaction of disco socalled street protests a street color for evolution because there are so exciting the reactions and theyre making distractions perfect for years because the orange revolution in ukraine 2004 was a huge surprise for at russian government state authorities so they are hacked that off their base and now theyre collecting experience with these street protests not only in russia but outside of russia as well so its for them its like collecting know how to deal with these kind of situation for the future if Something Like this would happen in russia which is. Right now probably not rated or not very realistic but theyre collecting experience and know how to deal with this kind of instability inside of a country and letting a putin has become an expert in disruptive politics how far do you think hes going to go in disrupting the belorussian party here i think that the russian government getting support from russia in terms of expertise how to suppress the street protest how to deal with this not only to beat the people and not only to torture people in front of the camera but with to a deal on the most subtle way more. Called the local mall brits is very you know. Its a big. Big old couple of symbolic figures probably or to make the future proof from the thousands of people in the jail but more. So. Little of information distribution. So i mean. In those origins already did the fall of longer before elections all the most important figure is all the position candidates or potential candidates because they were never never registered and everybody had at least some kind of experience in st paul because they were already in jail far before election so what i always see no is a Grassroots Movement and thats thats make it problematic for the government and just to come back to this russia problem because i do and this tend to that of course reports and it is you know kind of bad example for russians to show while people can do it yourself but at the same time im asking myself what would he get i mean he would do laws. As long as bill i would see that is intervening i dont need it or it wanted some other obvious form. Russia would lose the most Friendly Society in terms of russia because below britains and most friendly. To another nations and as a very important soft power instrument and russias already present their most below sense because russian Russian Media are still very popular in belarus Culture Church family connections and so on mentality also a bit cut and so on so its really you know will not disappear even as long as president is not there i mean i met this dependence will not. Influence will not disappear also economic dependence from russia is huge so i dont really see the point why would you do that because hes do you can have influence on the. So there are potential president ial candidates very quickly. This is very important yeah no. Chance for putin i think its also a chance for him because. The relationship between is quite difficult and im not sure if. Really wants to keep. It isnt it better for him to get rid of him because he didnt. Didnt recognize crimea being russian. How do you sleep at night. Beginning to feel despairing about the situation. I began to practice perry at the very 1st night i was just. Have to leave it there im afraid hes going to very interesting discussion if youve enjoyed this much sign up come back next week. Or. Always on the road but he said home to. Her family and make some possible. Julia susie and esther our personnel camper girls for us things to the chess. Playing temper obsessed by pros. Read the full. 90 minutes on d w. Were all set. To go beyond the obvious. Marine live. As we take on the world. Player all about the stories that matter to you and really. Never get to the amount of cutler play. Made for minds. A meal time to focus the 2nd season on the good. Stuff about the environment Civil Society its still about us but all the planets on the brinkley spoke to some of the leading experts in the fish. Hook up just to get the only real sense of. Place. Much im being bored because. Youre a liar a compromise which. You want to look with no school trip. You want to be put on a love to cook when youre sick the doctors know when you fall in love they wont. You dont have children for fear theyll be invisible to. You. Knows. When youve gone theres no. Every 10 minutes. Someone misses. 10000000 people in the world the stakes they have no nationality im told made up of all. But everyone has the right. Everyone has the right to say i. Am. The be. The but. This is the job you knew was a lie about from very land russia allows kremlin critic alexina vania to be taken to germany for treatment the Opposition Leader collapsed after a suspected of poisoning russian doctors earlier insisted he was too ill to travel also coming up in the shot protesters in bellerose a former chain of solidarity as the authorities are cracking down on government opponents the un is demanding the release of all those detained. And at thousands of feet some of the biggest wildfires ever