It reserves the right to take taiwan by force under president Xi Jinping China has become more open than ever about that threat and as well see its far from certain that taiwan would get any help if china digs madison and sadly even 5 years ago. The United States to come to taiwans defense was greater than it is today so what my china actually do lets turn now are 2 or 3 scenarios each one more dangerous than the last were going to start by projecting whats happening right now into the future with china trying to chip away at taiwans defenses and were going to ask how far could it go. February 2020 taiwans air force releases this image to the media it shows a taiwanese. Jacks trying to intercepting a chinese boma flying near its an space rankling its just a dangerous tension in the sky the photograph might be red but what it shows happens a lot especially b. C. s taiwanese military expert johnny chang explains a common flight path that chinese planes follow made and and so common brian out. Post day goes. By the taiwan and by and down bed return back to china taking the route of boston can say we will need to reach by then the aircraft fly to the whole of the ethics. To make sure so we have been doing our skies defending our waters every moment in the last few decades is constant pressuring from the chinese side its like a stress test on multiple levels its hardly a demoralizing the taiwanese public but its also simply wearing down time was claimed. By one has to scramble fighter jets that not only get the airframe because every fighter jet. Made a has a limited number of hours a can fly. And so by having them constantly on strip alert. With their wings fully loaded with munitions and with external fuel tanks that weakens the wings as well. And theres also tricks the pilots away from other activities that would prove theyre ready to. And perhaps most importantly all of these probing generates hugely valuable insights for the Chinese Military james final who led u. S. Naval intelligence in the pacific explains you have to know your admission. Defense structure and its network its air defense radar system where the weaknesses were the strengths how long does it take a fighter 16 fighter to i want to get off the ground to respond to a dream that 7 coming from this air base to the jail levon coming from that base or. The cage a 5000 or 2000 coming from this base of the Early Warning aircraft so theyre testing all of these are things that we cant see we dont know about because were not getting the raw intelligence but i guarantee you china is looking at every possible down to minute detail of minutes seconds how long things take to respond who doesnt respond which base comes 1st telephone calls Text Messages between different government leaders and defense officials there mapping all of that out in the cyber realm to china continues to probably chip away. Chunks explained just by read that in the high one had. That pen the Government Agency had been hacked by the chinese hackers that. Has. Happened very frequently in taiwan unassuming building in shanghai reportedly houses the military hacking unit 61398 the taiwan suspects absorption many attacks all this belongs to whats called the gray zone hostile activities that stop short of outright military action theyre constantly hitting taiwan with Cyber Attacks with disapprobation misinformation attacks. And of course espionage if theyre constantly working. Through propaganda channels and other channels to weaken to demoralize the taiwanese military and isolate. These government. And with its open Society Taiwan is highly vulnerable to disinform ation campaigns so says expert channing sue these efforts i think they are more and more sophisticated the enemy to interfere with ones internal social and political lives as in the ultimate purpose most of the time is to create confusion in a society to create distrust in the government to create division among peoples and when there is confusion when there is distrust in democracy then there is an opportunity for the idea of authoritarianism being a step dad and i think thats the purpose of this information it adds up to a multifaceted information war and china has long pursued a united front policy and tactics against taiwan and so try to build support with in taiwan for unification and that includes buying media in taiwan and buying off some people in taiwan or maybe even trying to buy votes and inserting people in taiwan and trying to shape the narrative so could this scenario of chipping away its happening right now eventually succeed the hope. Will eventually just crumble but the society can crumble and that ultimately over the next 5 to 10 years we can subvert ones government to. Crumble democracy from within. But if taiwan doesnt crumble it could push back becoming more determined to stand alone and that could ultimately trigger a crisis perhaps one like our next an aria. And caused your mind back to early 2014 you might remember scenes like this. Seemingly out of nowhere heavily armed troops began showing up at key installations in the ukrainian peninsula of crimea. Adding to the sense of confusion the troops no insignia they wouldnt say who they were or who had sent them people started calling them little green men but it soon became clear what was going on the little green men belong to russia and their mission was stunningly. Nothing less than an exciting crimea in hindsight russias motivations for taking control of the Crimean Peninsula seem quite obvious it housed just for t. G. T. Important Russian Naval base which moscow leased from ukraine. After weeks of unrest in the capital kiev that culminated in the fall of the central Ukrainian Government russia made its move leaders here in the west were aghast at what putin had done but they were helpless they impose sanctions but 6 years later nothing has changed so could this is a blueprint for a similar chinese move against part of taiwan lets take a look at the map and taiwan has a large number of outlying islands that could be vulnerable to being plucked away like crimea from the tiny reefs of protestan in the South China Sea and through the pingu islands just off the time when east coast right up to map to well to the north. Were going to focus in here on the gin man islands theyre just 2 kilometers from the chinese mainland puerto shopmen you could swim it. These islands have history back in the 1950 s. They were the focus of 2 major postschool crises between taiwan and china neither side has forgotten but despite that History Today jim man has close ties to charmaine just across the harbor and now pipes in much of its Drinking Water from the mainland and beyond that it has important intelligence and Strategic Value according to experts in east and human control. A large port facility by far. In southeastern. Fortress it is honeycomb. There are tanks there. Are heavy artillery mortar systems and of course the major. Focal point for intelligence collection so how might a crimea scenario play out. Well a possible trigger it could be political a time when the statement for example china might interpret it as breaking it and she says. In eastern explains how things might again well the most likely course of action i think for that would be condemned to conduct a massive sabotage operation against him and so everything from cyber attack to electronic jamming to having commandos and intelligence agents and assets on the ground and start potentially assassinating military commanders blowing things up knocking the power of. Chinas Maritime Militia could be brought into play here you could compare them to russias little green men being involved in International Confrontations and the fishing rights in the South China Sea something that taiwan has been watching closely russian use the green thing then people could go in that little bit. Because they. Are very likely that china mobilized those murray time money. To iraq. Mission to go around the country and certainly youre going to see jim and then surrounded by and flooded with Maritime Militia so these are sensibly members of the p l a but they look like civilian fisherman oftentimes and so it creates a very serious dilemma. For the marines and the army troops that are on cimon that the garrison there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point are they for truth is it when theyre closing in when theyve already landed and now theyre swarming the island and taking over facilities and of course they would be mixed in with Undercover Special forces. From n. P. R. As well the aim would likely be to move fast to establish facts on the ground quickly like cruisin did in crimea and it would pose a huge di lemma for the Government Back in taipei taipei is not necessarily going to know how to react and theres not necessarily going to be a consensus in taipei on the value of g. M. And the value of escalating into a potentially an all out war with the p. R. C. Over. There are going to be some and one that would say well gee been historically was part of problems its not actually part of i was and its not worth escalating over in washington it would also present a tie lemme but it seems likely that would be Little American appetite to intervene militarily its very difficult to judge how the United States would react to a limited use of force against taiwan it would likely come with very little warning and it might be over very quickly there might be an effort to put sanctions on china but i doubt that there would be a use of force by the United States to punish china for one it has done so could this be a relatively painless scenario for china one with diplomatic costs that it could accept like Vladimir Putins experience with crimea well its not necessarily so clear cut. It would most likely trigger anti china protests in taiwan much more intense than some Flower Movement that we heard about earlier rallying Public Opinion against closer ties with china. And even if the us decided not to intervene in the takeover could prompt washington to increase its commitment to defending taiwan proper for china even this relatively limited pushback might not be worth it but i think its the risk there is that upsets the overall strategic. You know the great rejuvenation the great restoration my opinion is once trying to all the way and says were going to war theyre going to go after if theyre going to go with the military theyre going to go all the way theyre not going to go so now lets turn to our final and most dangerous scenario china going all the way and invading taiwan. Its a decade or so in the future but beneath the surface in the Chinese Communist party there are growing signs of dissent. Chinas economy has been underperforming for years held back by a shop small in global trade that lingered after the coronavirus pandemic. Tensions with the u. S. Have turned into a chronic cold war. Beijing has kept pouring money into its military jet is soaring and chinas population is beginning to shrink. The Party Chairman is under growing pressure to break out of this sense of national decline or face being forced out of office by party rivals. This makes taiwan look like an increasingly tempting target its economy is strong but its military disadvantage is deeper than ever and its people are appalled by what happened to hong kong and even less likely to join china for the terror. That the United States recounts around to wait in key swing states author of bitter election ended with razor tight results both sides are claiming victory and accusing the other of having helped with foreign powers. As the legal challenges fly back and forth the u. S. Faces months of political uncertainty. So a power vacuum in the United States a push for National Pride in a stagnating china and taiwan as exposed as its ever been these are the sorts of circumstances that could encourage china to make a move so if it came to that how might an invasion play out she would have burst initially a joint Strike Campaign which would want you know all these missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use 45 maybe tend to want to make sure that every defensive position of taiwan had been attacked every airfield and been greater relabel port stable and then they would then come in and help with their airports order to establish air superiority so that any time a war an aircraft tried to get off the ground it would be decimated and wall thats going on and simultaneously the b. B. s forces would be coming across and those heroes who come up 1st and launch and land forces as a key point that they wanted to clear. And then you come in there with a much larger crowd that would be you know within their civilian fleet that would have literally scores and scores thousands of the thousands of the ole soldiers and they could just walk right up here and of course taiwan would be to. Trying to defend itself chang explains how it would have to be smart in how it uses its much smaller military all of the assets including even the land forces the peg their ships that blow this up over the aircraft has to be used bike effectively that could be divided into basically the 1st base is to is to protect the force in cell the use of this deception have not brought building those kinds of a tactical measure well need to be adopted so that we were happy we would still keep our capability. To respond then the 2nd place is the profile i wave the colors i want to cut so that that means the height of the country and the people will be away. Or the capital and the cinema the then the 3rd debate to. Annihilate or destroy a lot of the forces at peace that means attack helicopters and land based. Missile. To attack the Chinese Navy Ship but ultimately the best the time want to do is buy time hoping that the United States would intervene james for mel talks about the assets that the americans could mobilize in the pacific or u. S. Navy in the u. S. 7th fleet resources that could disrupt the invasion so. Our submarine forces. They would be used to try to disrupt the chinese invasion the ships that would come across the naval air in the u. S. Air forces that are operated from japanese bases and her craft there is the support of course of the region. Would be. Destroyed beijing so the u. S. Would have options but intervention would still be a memento his decision. American forces would immediately become chinese targets with its pacific bases like a canal in japan and the tiny island of guam open to attack and so even if the United States managed to defend taiwan its intervention create set off a terrifying chain of escalation between 2 superpowers let me just be the 1st battle in what becomes a series of battles that. Go on over a number of years in a protracted great power war. And of course all of that is the Nuclear Deterrent hold that neither government. Washington or miscalculate and panicked and her does anything with Nuclear Weapons if they do then were talking about potential nuclear war. And that would be truly horrific and so theres also you know everything that happened in this scenario happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because thats what this could lead to its extremely dangerous and extremely serious and weve been talking about all this happening perhaps a decade in the future but some of the circumstances that could trigger this scenario could emerge much sooner than that and if you look at the internal situations in china at this moment their economy says being affected by cold at night and under this kind of so going to the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us a convenient scapegoat and therefore taiwanese to be concerned about the chinese possible use of force against us so the world. Might not have 10 years to think about these risks so what can it do to minimize them. As weve just seen a conflict over taiwan has the potential to spark a war between the superpowers even the most benign scenario weve just examined is fraught with risk so what should the world be doing about this well lets start with the United States some of the experts that weve been hearing from in the us say washington has to make a much clearer commitment to taiwans defense our policy towards taiwan. Doesnt make a lot of. That we dont work there so what. Is right for miscalculation by providing a credible guarantee news. To taiwan security and messaging to beijing. That the United States in serious about i want security. That that increases the risk we would never do this with south korea were to continue can be used and doesnt work we know its destabilizing. And yet were doing that with taiwan. A new bill in congress ange to make big changes committing future president s to defending taiwan in the event of an attack its also congressman ted yoho republican on the House Foreign Affairs committee explained the other time want invasion prevention act does several things one it delineates if there were an attack on taiwan by china that it would authorize an a u m l of the United States congress to allow the president it go in and defend taiwan militarily and a u. M. S. Thats an authorization for. The use of military force and i think the biggest thing it does is it gets rid of the strategic or political or diplomatic ambiguity thats lasted since the seventys its been a just. A lot of ambiguity or taiwan stance but critics say this could backfire either by provoking china or by encouraging risky behavior by taiwans leaders so if the United States has a position that says it will come to taiwans defense and attack are trying under all circumstances then that could the argument goes into blank check to arrange. Taiwan president to engage in more dangerous in the stabilizing behaviors so u. S. Policy currently is to oppose any changes in the status quo in the Taiwan Strait made by either side but our american experts do agree on one think the us needs at least to be able to defend taiwan and right now that its not certain but i think the United States has been better complacent in recent years and my hope is that the u. S. Will follow through on some of the plans that it currently has to modernize and update u. S. Forces with an eye to being able to intervene on taiwans behalf chinas message to the u. S. Its Pretty Simple though back off i think you have. A country. They dont know. Chinas affairs a publisher maybe you know people. I mean china saw the problem itself so what about attitudes here in europe. As the Czech Republic has found out where europeans express solidarity with taiwan. China responds with threats but that may make europeans more determined to take a stand at least that was hinted at by germanys foreign minister at a meeting with his chinese counterpart. With those. Winds of the viet also have. Their also rans. Were you when i. Swear i only meant visual. Images on those wall narrative. But experts say europe still hasnt figured out how to back up that commitment. What we lack is a european conversation about what kind of player europe in the future would like to be in these kinds of scenarios and whether we would like to stay the sidelines of or whether the Mission Important for europe to not only defend the economic interests but also the Interest Income safeguarding vital democracies in a region that is of crucial importance for the future of our Economic Prosperity and finally lets turn to taiwan itself from minister joseph says theres one thing hed like to marcos to do now to support taiwan back its bid to become more integrated in the International Community that taiwanese people should not be excluded from the International Organizations its not fair to the people and its also stopping taiwan from making contributions to the International Community so i would ask the International Community i would ask the members of the International Organizations to look at taiwans role as a positive 1. 00 and 2. 00 in cool taiwan even that would provoke a furious pushback from beijing and democracies no it. Insists that the whole world has a stake in taiwans future if you look at china us expansionism in the last several years. I think its not only about China Expansion they are trying to export the authoritarian International Order while the democracies are following the rule based International Order and of china succeeded in taking taiwan over i think the rest of the walt especially for democracies is going to feel the heat china is expanding award taiwan happens to be on the front line. For those of us watching from the outside we owe it to the people of the region to sit up and pay attention. To a flash. Point they could blow up into it devastates conference. Was. The last time final was communist east germany was played into 99. Cents to. Understand. It was a great opportunity for the police to shoot sluggishness in the soon to be made in germany. 11 minutes. Obviously tough it is for me obviously tough for. Beethoven it is for health. And beethoven it is for color beethoven is for come up with beethoven 22. 00 was the 50th anniversary here on d w. This is deja vu news live from berlin back in full swing on the campaign trail u. S. President donald trump heads to the battleground state of florida for his 1st rally since being hospitalized with coverts 19 his democratic challenger former Vice President joe biden also campaigning in a key state with just 3 weeks to go till the november election. Plus the confusion surrounding coronavirus here in germany restrictions seem to change by the week critics say there are too many different rules which often make notes
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