By Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy
Brazil maintained the same pace of rate hikes (75bps) and guidance. Turkey remained on hold with a seemingly hawkish statement – but is it just lip service?
“More of the same” – The Brazilian central bank continued to frontload rate hikes, maintaining the same pace (75bps), same guidance (75bps), and the same reasoning (“partial normalization”). A less uncertain fiscal backdrop eased pressure on the central bank to act more aggressively in the near term. However, the real policy rate remains deeply negative (see chart below) – not the best setup against the backdrop of rising inflation. The emerging narrative is that Brazil is on the road to redemption policy-wise – the central bank’s measured tightening would fit right in.