Of our armed forces, which can significantly increase the losses of the enemy on the front line, which is extremely important, it is both about weapons and about training in certain directions, which essentially affect changes on the front line, so we will talk about all this in different dimensions to speak with leading experts and our military in the next issue of our military program, my name is serhii zgurets, i the director of the information and Consulting Company defense express, which, together with the espresso channel, covers the most relevant trends in the Defense System and the defenseindustrial complex, and now we are joined by valentyn badarak, director of the army, conversion and Disarmament Research center, analyst and the writer, mr. Valentin, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear you, mr. Serhiy, thank you for the invitation, congratulations, yes, i will start by saying that just a day or two ago, such a large analytical report, written by academician volodymyr, was published on ukrainform horbulin and as the director of the Army Research center of disarmament conversions and this report is called the 24th year of the military mystery for ukraine. This report actually outlines the Current Situation and prospects. I would like you to briefly summarize for our viewers, what are the main risks, challenges and mysteries, precisely for the defense of ukraine for the next year . Well, start for sure. Perhaps because all this is happening, all the events are taking place against the background of intensifying rivalry between the antiwestern bloc, which is now led by china, and in fact western democracies under, shall we say , the flag of the United States of america. Ukraine found itself right in the middle of this rivalry, with this war launched by russia, and therefore, strictly speaking, a lot depends on ukraine, because it defends the eastern flank of nato, and serves as a deterrent for china, so it seems to me that the western partners and the United States, in particular, well , will do Everything Possible to prevent a reduction in aid, the first puzzle, of course, is western aid, but the question is that the Biden Administration from a certain, time very, very much, i would say limited in its capabilities, we know, there are now 5. 2 billion left at the beginning, the war in israel, yes, on october 7, so this is the second puzzle, exactly, this is the possibility of scaling, the war on in the middle east, and therefore, with the first puzzle, it is important for us now, and we all expect, the election of the speaker of the house of representatives. It is very good that the candidacy of the republican jordan, who, as we know, expresses antiukrainian theses and is a trumpist, failed twice , supports trump and wants to end aid, but it seems that he will not become the speaker, we hope so and we still think that if the United States receives, and literally today friday, biden will address the congress with the intention of advancing 100 billion dollars for the three countries at once, about 60 billion for ukraine and the rest for israel and taiwan. If it succeeds now, it will mean that in the 24th year, well , one of the huge problems related to the reduction of western aid will be removed, although there may still be pitfalls and various currents during the preparation for the president ial elections of the United States and any and all things can be used, we know in the official document, the integrated strategy for the development of ukraine, which the state department issued the other day, it was said for the first time in the official document that the states wish ukraine to win, but , but in the end, there is a lot there about corruption and the underperformance of the kyiv authorities, so the second mystery is the scaling of the war, and now at this moment, well, at the moment when a hospital in the gas sector was hit the other day, one could say that china somewhat overplays, today, together with all its supporters, the western bloc, however, not everything is so simple, and the fact that the arab world, as it were, began to distance itself from the west, and there was a leveling of these efforts, in particular, the main node station this, saudi arabia, israel, did not happen , stop. and everything is frozen, but not everything has been said yet, the parties will fight, these two huge mysteries are the biggest for us now. Mr. Valentin, then, against this background, the question arises as to what ukraine itself should do in the preparation of the army and its defense in order to adequately to meet the risks and uncertainties that the next year may bring us, relatively speaking, in your report, you write that there are opportunities for ukraine to achieve technological advantages through independent efforts, what are you talking about . Well, of course, it is not strictly about the 24th year, it is probably about the next fiveyear period, but big steps can be taken already in the 24th year, it is necessary to remove all restrictions for industry and provide an opportunity to work more confidently, at the same time, it is necessary to choose a model of management of the defense industry, which does not yet exist its a pity, what i see now about the industries, the state now, well, there are moments where not all moments have been fully worked out, we know about the audit service, which interferes with the rocket industry, we know that the ministry of technology seems to have. Had new opportunities, but has not yet fully approached the creation of a model, and in particular, well, we proposed and consider these to be key points, the urgent withdrawal of the entire missile industry from any subordination, except for the ministry of strategic and technological development, well, i understand that, lets say for kabeluch, now a layer in the form of ukroboronprom already updated, there is no longer such a huge obstacle as before. But all the same, the times of growth have not come for the Aviation Industry either, and actually speaking, it must be removed from ukroboronprom, we need to create an institute of general designers, which are authorized, because today i am the most vivid example, we have 200 Companies Engaged in drones, we have 30 types of various druns, but at the same time the question of an analogue of shahedu is not reached, right . Then the ministry of defense and all other ministries that are currently working in the sphere of National Affairs innovative solutions, should go in such a way as to be the coordinator of the creation of a new one, and not, strictly speaking, here is what is happening now, only what is offered by industry is considered, so far no one, lets say a ground robotic complex, in 20 companies are currently offering us, but these are developments that exist, and to create a new one, for example, to assemble, take, publicprivate partnership, unite and take weapons, the weapons complex that kabeluch has already done , take basic, say, robots, robotic platforms, take the best select navigation systems, communication and so on, who should do it . I think that this is a task for the ministry of defense, and the ministry of defense should buy what is already ready, they are in principle welladjusted , and now the Evaluation System is being refined, and we know that this is being done jointly by the ministry of defense at the general staff, but we need to speed up the work on 345 th resolution, because there are many problems, a lot of problems, everything must be speeded up from months. To days, and the ministry of strategy and industry must clearly deal with militarytechnical cooperation. We now better times are coming, even agreed with france to do big. Drone of the strategic plan, but for this to really be an already implemented project, a lot needs to be done in the administration of the defense industry, it is necessary to speed up and demarcate, demarcate the situation, i believe that there should be two large financial streams, one stream for the readymade, which is purchased by the ministry of defense and in ukraine and abroad, and the second. This is all that the ministry of strategy and technology will do within the limits and development of its own technologies and within the limits of militarytechnical cooperation, where large projects will be worked out with such companies as rain metal, baye systems, and others, bayikarina and so on , yes, this is what needs to be done, that is , there is a huge amount of work ahead, but it needs to be done very quickly, then something can actually happen with the technological the withdrawal of russia, and you mentioned russia, i would like to ask your assessment of the plans of the enemies, because the language says or shoyu suggests that the 25th year will be decisive in terms of the end of the war. Why the 25th year, what is happening with the enemy, what are the approaches to the transformation of the defense, what should we Pay Attention to . Well, the 25th year is a saying of shoigu, we dont need to cling too much to it, because shoigu had in mind a political, political nuance, it was a political saying, because he himself. Is not sure of victory, remember, how he threw up his hands when popov, this propagandist, asked him whether russia would win, he could not answer, and then he began to Say Something there, he is not a military man and he does not understand the situation that is happening in general in the military sphere of russia, that as for the defense industry, it is of course easier there, because with in the seventh year, there was an outfit run by a friend of putins who worked with him back in dresden, and uh, thats why there are actually more than 1000 companies now in the same hands, and its very fast, everything is done, what can they do, theyre really targeted to scale everything, plus get drone missiles from iran, for this shoigu went there in september and tried to negotiate there, and to be honest, north korea will help as much as it can, but in the end, russia is also exhaling, and despite the fact that despite the fact that there are still a lot of resources there, formally, we called it the 25th year, but formally, in the next three to five years, russia can confidently fight with these resources, with such. Approaches that exist now, for in order to limit russia, it is necessary to introduce a complete ban on exports to this country with the introduction of powerful secondary sanctions , the example is very classic, this morning there was a message that kazakhstan has imposed sanctions and will refuse and will refuse the export of drones, already on the day kazakhstan, the leading ministry, which deals with this has already questioned this and says that we will not use general rules, as in the arms market and so on, this shows that many countries are hesitant, afraid , and a full ban on exports is needed, first from the side of the big seven, then, the eu will support it, thats for sure, and it should continue to grow under the influence of sanctions, even countries that are geographically close, through which russia still reexports various machines, such as from turkey, from the south of korea, from japan, will resort to this. There were such cases with germany, and ending directly with some microelectronics and so on, so the situation here is at a stalemate with sanctions , but, well, still, the western world, under the understanding that threats are growing, the 24th year is a huge increase in threats in compared to the 23rd, and that is why i think that the nuts will be tightened more powerfully and there will be a transition from sanctions to an export ban, this is inevitable, because without this it will be impossible to restrain the development of russia into an industrial one, these are the forecasts, mr. Valentin, we talked about what is now we are waiting for what will be the amount of troops or militarytechnical assistance from the United States and other western countries, but somehow the question of security guarantees or guarantees of aid for ukraine, or will they be conventionally speaking, because it is a component of the security guarantee for of ukraine, an important element that ukraine should use and what could be the potential reaction from our partners is a valid question , just yesterday i read what is already happening with the fifth country, the big seven, the negotiations, and for us here they are definitely key country will be the United States, and the introduction of the israeli model, we have seen how it works, it works very well. Because even the ammunition that was intended for ukraine and was in warehouses in israel, a drastic decision was made to transfer it to israel, and everything that israel requests, everything is quickly provided to them, literally, even launchers for their iron houses, and, that is , antimissile Defense Systems, especially since israel , due to joint developments, has made a lot of progress, actually. States of joint development, so this model is very suitable for us, it is very important to us if we go further and, in addition to the United States, reach strong agreements, primarily with great britain, with germany, i have less faith in france, because macron is constantly wavering, he said that the eu should prepare and support ukraine on , in case a friend comes. Macron, im sorry, the second trump, but a few weeks later he already said that if the states cannot help in full, then europe will not be able to replace, yes, then these fluctuations changed again and now paris to compensate, berlin took up, and just a few days ago announced that there will be huge help in ammunition , production volumes will be tripled from, thousands, well, three times more ammunition will be supplied per month from the 24th, i will not say about the figure, so as not to be mistaken, and the production of caesar selfpropelled artillery units has been increased from two to eight, i understand that ukraine will also get enough there, so this is all very important, europe still understands the danger more than the politicians in the United States do, i. I am not talking about the administration here biden, and that is why we see that security guarantees for ukraine must be in place, i did not say anything about nato, because now it is not even appropriate to talk about it, it is appropriate to talk about technological advantages, arms deliveries and the inclusion of ukraine in clubs for the development and production of new weapons, it can happen, and we should strive for it, demonstrating the fight against corruption, demonstrating. And the readiness to work according to global rules. Mr. Valentin, thank you very much for your time, for your comments, for your evaluations, i would like to remind you that the press class was on the air valentyn badrrak, director of the army, conversion and Disarmament Research center, analyst and writer. 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The war in ukraine, the main topic for ukrainians, victories and losses, analysis and forecasts, politics and geopolitics, Serhiy Rudenko and the guests of his program will talk about all this people who have information and shape public opinion, people who defend ukraine and create the future right now , the main and interesting thing in the program verdict by Serhiy Rudenko, from monday to friday at 8 00 p. M. , repeat at 12 10 p. M. , we continue our military program, and then we will talk about the actions and approaches of the armed forces, which can significantly increase the losses of the enemy on the front line, which is extremely important, by the way, today the general staff reported that 1,380 occupiers were destroyed in the past day, these are actually colossal losses on the part of the enemy, and we understand that our snipers contributed to the enemys losses, and after this, of course, the question arises that it is extremely important to train snipers , to increase the number of schools and to provide them with modern means to destroy the enemy, how is this happening, what progress is there now in our state, we will talk about this with our next guest , and we are joined by yuriy chornom, doctor of philosophy, volunteer and sniper, mr. Yuriy, i congratulate you, it is nice to see and hear you, good day to everyone, i would like you to tell us something, what has changed during these 19 months of hostilities, or we can talk about what attention to snipers has become. Greater, that there are more schools that train snipers of various levels, that equipment has improved, what is happening, what are the dynamics, positive or neutral, or maybe some other . Well, there is a positive dynamic in that the state, as well as western partners, train and retrain a large number of snipers, that is, a large number of snipers are trained in ukraine, in the west, and also informally. We also try to retrain snipers, and accordingly, in principle, these are the snipers that we personally like we provide, we handed over 216 rifles and also 160 government rifles , we were able to put them into service, they are now effectively more used, because we put better sights on them, and accordingly in total, it is more than 3. 5 hundred snipers are currently using our help, but lets say, its not enough to simply train people here, i emphasize once again that it is necessary to study the 21styear tutoditch, the experience of using sniper groups by special operations forces, based on the experience of ato, where it is said that it is necessary to create combat units of six to ten snipers, which would be provided with full cover, and scouts, and drones and the like , provided with everything that is necessary, because there are unfortunate cases, for example, one Battalion Commander asked my sniper group to in the kherson direction, to take and carry out the task where their battalion is, because the battalion suffered heavy losses from the enemy, four of my professionals headed by the Group Commander arrived, i. E. A total of five people, worked for a week, inflicted significant losses on the enemy, the enemy completely lost its activity on this front, because the boys together with local scouts from this battalion did all kinds of miracles and accordingly the enemy was completely demoralized and then an unexpected question arose on the last day when they left here it turned out that in this brigade, to which he belonged this battle, there were 32 fulltime snipers, who were equipped with beautiful, absolutely gmentovka, who were able to actually. Work day and night, but they said that there was no no opportunity to work on the battle line , behind the battle line, and so on. Then my sniper Group Commander, who has been in the profession for 15 years, just started shouting at the chief of staff, what is this, i worked here for a week, here are my results, here are the results of my guys, your 32 beds are equipped with everything that the state gave them and thats it. Having passed all the training, they lie down and so on, that they could not buy thermal ponchos that would protect them from russian drones at night, that they could not do that, this fifth tenth and to be able to really function, here i want to say that everything depends very much on how experienced people are leading these sniper groups below, how proactive they are, how proactive they are, how much they. Can use this huge toolkit, because there really are such dumb ones approaches, when on the contrary they have worked, and only then those guys who are defending there will receive even more attacks from artillery, mortars and so on, and it would be better if they did not appear there, but it really happens that snipers, like a highprecision surgical the tool is used, but it all depends, again, on the specific commanders of specific sniper groups, how experienced they are, how well they know how to use this tool, and it also depends on the fact that there are good snipers in some areas of the front, but the command cannot understand that they should, lets say, really be formed into autonomous groups and that they should really have the opportunity to work autonomously, set tasks for themselves, propose to the command and coordinate with the command. Very cool to work and, accordingly, to have the results, now everywhere in the south, in the east, where these groups operate, they perform a huge number of tasks, especially where the russians are pressing near kupyansk and trying to capture kupyansk, now the most dangerous situation right now is even more dangerous than near avdiivka , and we send a large number of guys there, for example, from the kherson region, from other. Directions, and there are results, because people act autonomously, they themselves know what to do, and can act accordingly even in a team, which is simply sniper pair and already do miracles, and when they come there 610 people with an escort, then accordingly the results are fantastic, unfortunately there are losses, because during the entire war we lost seven snipers for these 200, even more snipers who are ours underbosses, in the last 10 days we lost two snipers and yesterday we lost two more, but overall you can see that this survivability is absolutely fantastic for the front, that is, well 11 kills for several hundred snipers, it shows that this is a highly professional backbone of the defense, and now that the main recruits, they are very uninitiative, they are so passive, they. To the point of leaving their positions and so on, and no matter how much you teach them, they are still, well, they are not the fighting guys who made up the backbone of the army in the 22nd year, now it is necessary to value professionals in each profession accordingly and snipers to be this backbone, because very often the guys just watch, oh snipers with machine gunners do not leave, so we stay, oh snipers say that it is better to storm a highrise than to die in this landing, as it was in the robot, because they stormed the dominant height, because simply if they understood that they would die in the landing, they said, we will lead you along the paths and you will be able to storm, well, if we go anyway, we will die in the landing, and accordingly, really act in such a way that everyone survives, and that really more ordinary fighters survived,