Republic. Demonstrators who had been marched against the u. S. Calling for death to america have changed course. Now they are protesting against their own government. After tyrone admitted late last week that its own missile shot down the ukrainian passenger plane by mistake. Causing the death of 176 people including dozens of armenians. The shifting sentiment could impose validation for President Trump who is facing a lot of criticism on the justification on the attack on Qassem Soleimani. Mr. Trump went on twitter to pray for demonstrators and told iran not to kill their protesters because the world is watching, more importantly the usa is watching. Information inside iran is hard to get, the riot police have been out in force to control the marches. Many of them are demanding more from the president resigned over the plane crash. Adding to the leadership trouble as european nations are still party to the 2015 are run nuclear deal, which of course the United States has suspended its involvement. If tyrone doesnt comply with its promise to limit its nuclear ambitions. So every waged the turning point iran with the hardliners losing the grip on power . What happens next . What did these developments mange the u. S. . To give his insight is the director of uranian studies program at stanford is also the author of several books one considered the most authority them on the lash all of our run. He joins me from stanford. Professor welcome. Let me start by asking about the current unrest there. How serious are these demonstrations what is the threat . I think the demonstrations in particular the fact that they have been followed by many other demonstrations virtually all of them except for the funeral for soleimani against the regime, are having a composite effect. And because they have very serious economic crisis and because they come with an increasing isolation, both regionally and around the world, they have i think created an almost perfect storm for the regime. And that regime is absolute ability to face up to the reality of this and doubling down on the failed policies of the past. And actual suppression of any voice. I think its going to increase the chances that this will become the most serious crisis they have ever faced. Gerry as you have implied there have been several periods in the last decade or so where iranians have taken to the streets, very unhappy in 2009 and a couple of years ago too. And just before the killing of soleimani we saw a lot of demonstrations on the sanctions, the economy is bit has been hit hard. Why do you think this is more serious than even some of those demonstrations which in the end the regime is able to put down . Because as i indicated in the interval between these demonstrations become shorter as they have. In november, the regime had to literally kill upward of a thousand loiterers and they said 1500. The ironic regime with that the internal shame is not once indicated how many people they have killed. There are reports of 7000 people and more are still in prison severing torture. And the soleimani funeral and the outpouring of sympathy gave the regime a moments of potential rest. Gave it a moment it could try to correct its path. That people have not gone home yet. They use the outpouring of emotion to their benefit. They began to arrest some of the opposition. They began to threaten anyone who would criticize them. And then the absolute mismanagement, and gross lying about the downing of the ukrainian plane, completely turned against them and they began to lose any possibility of the moment and the country is again ready for more demonstrations. They still have the possibility of suppressing this. They havent lost their ability to kill or imprison people, but as the economy falters, as the funds they have available to pay these hoodlums to go after the iranian people dwindled, i think the crisis will become more serious. I dont see any end to these demonstrations. Gerry is there any kind of Opposition Movement . Is there a figure or a leader . Is there a faction or a party that might possibly unite around that would be able to bring up about the end of the islamic regime . The obvious most important part of the opposition inside iran is there is Opposition Forces outside of iran and they are part of the larger. [inaudible] its almost 10 of the population living there. In the future of our iran has to be determined with a combination of where the center of the opposition is which is iran. And that center of opposition has been decimated by the regime. Gerry but in the history to bring authoritarian regimes down you need an organization, figure, like when the soviet union or untracked Union Collapse you had some of the Opposition Movements and these other authoritarian places. Is there enough is there a well resourced and enough of an identifiable figure that could be leading this effort to actually topple the regime . I dont think there is one figure that has emerged yet, that has achieved the kind of consensus. Because i say that consensus has to be both from within iran and outside of iran. They have figures who have to have Different Levels of support. There are groups that are organizing and offering themselves as the vehicle for this transition, but i dont see yet any group that has for example as you suggest, the polish example were solidarity emerged. My sense is that what will happen, what is most likely is there are enough people within the eye iranian government, not the killers, not the irg see commanders that have become de facto mafia bosses of the eye iranian economy, but there are people within iran the eye Iranian Regime that know the game is up. And they want to avoid civil war. They want to avoid a bloodied revolution. Gerry im sorry weve got to take a very quick break when we come back i want to discuss more on the recent events and iran, the prospects for the regime there, and the future of the middle east. Stay with us will be back in just a moment. [shouting] [clapping and shouting] [cymbals clanging] [knocking] room for seven. And much, much more. The firstever glb. Uh, fifteen minutes could save you 15 ain . Or more on car insurance. I think were gonna swap over to over seventyfive years of savings and service. What, were just gonna swap over . Yep. Pump the breaks on this, swap it over to that. 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Call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. Think your copd medicine is doing enough . Maybe you should think again. Ask your doctor about oncedaily trelegy and the power of 1, 2, 3. Trelegy, 1,2,3 woman save at trelegy. Com. Gerry my guess is historian murtaugh met the situation and iran. Professor what can the United States, what should the United States do to encourage this movements against the leadership iran . I think of some of the declarations of support for the iranian people have been positive. Mr. Trumps tweets and persian was positive. My sense is the Iranian RegimeS International serious pressure. There should be, i think an international, led by the nine states because the United States is so important around the world. But in International Pressure on the Iranian Regime that you are not going to be allowed to kill your people the way you did in november. Gerry so would that be more economic sanctions . Already the u. S. Has reimposed those sanctions after it suspended its involvement in the nuclear deal. I you suggesting there should be even tougher sanctions . I think there should be tougher sanctions against the irg see. I think there should be tougher sanctions against anyone who has been responsible in ordering this, and continues to exercise it. I think ther they should be barred from traveling, their assets outside should be subject to all kinds of laws that exist for taking control of these things. Kind of laws that were used against russia and against potent. That kind of pressure, and in my view, the clear indication to the eye iranian people that nobody is going to determine their future, they should determine their future. But the world is watching and is on their side. In serving notice to them. International pressure works. Gerry what affect does the killing of a Qassem Soleimani have on the country more generally. You said at the beginning we saw huge demonstrations and condolence and anger at the United States. How genuine is that, and what is the effects of his removal on irans ability both in the region and to deal with the unrest at this time . The demonstrations were partially genuine, in a sense that there were people, nobody knows how many were in the street that fit into this category, there are people who were genuinely angry. That much of it was orchestrated by the regime. The regime not only shut the country down for three days and puts the entirely controlled media getting the service of getting people out. In the service of creating this kind of anger. But even before that, at has to be mentioned that the regime had worked for years to create Qassem Soleimani a different figure than the irg can see commander. They create an image of him between napoleon, poet, a mystic, somebody who was rumored to be financially corrupt like every other irc commander. If the regime had tried all of what it did in favor of any other general they could not have gotten this number. But much of it was orchestrated, masked demonstration. Regimes like iran thrive on creating mass demonstrations to threaten the people who opposed them and to tell the International Community that they still have legitimacy at home. Gerry one more quick break and then i want to come back and we will get your view, for their views on what is happening and iran and what might be going on in the wider region. Stay with us. Any comments doug . Yeah. Only pay for what you need with Liberty Mutual. Only pay for what you need with Liberty Mutual. Con Liberty Mutual solo pagas lo que necesitas. Only pay for what you need. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Stay resthe new rx,the icon thatcrafted by lexus. Lease the 2020 rx 350 for 419 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. And with the sXfinity Stream app, screen is your big screen. Which is free with your service, you can take a spin through on demand shows, or stream live tv. Download your dvrd shows and movies on the fly. Even record from right where you are. Whether youre travelling around the country or around the house, keep what you watch with you. Download the Xfinity Stream app and watch all the shows you love. Gerry i am with staten University Director of iran studies abbas milani. Professor in the last decade or so iran is really spread their influence in iraq. Lewis to dom hussein at spin very serious its propped up the regime it comments very influential in lebanon through its proxy has a blog, yemen and his struggle is saudi arabia, as you mentioned at the beginning, i was starting to see some pushback to that iranian influence . How do you see that going now in the next year so . Is are going to be further resistance to their influence . Every indication i have seen is there would be more. Iraq for example where iran has had most of the culturally embedded influence because of the number of shiites, the number of leaders who lived part of the years and iran. There is pushback there. [inaudible] if you read between the lines, every statement he has made is essentially here that iran needs to set up a rocky politics. The report he had one time even asked soleimani to leave iraq because he thought he was influencing too much. In lebanon it was the same way. Has below was on the liberal defensive. So i think regional lead they were very much on the defensive. And their ability not to spend as much money on these proxies, might soon be very influential in how much those proxies are going to be able to heed the commands of the eye Iranian Regime. Gerry five years ago president obama and the europeans, russians, chinese signed the plan of action by which iran agreed to suspend its Nuclear Program in exchange for lifting sanctions. President trump got out of that in reimposed sanctions. What affects his President Trumps actions and the altering so they are no longer going to be restricted to the program. What effect is that having on iran and its political influence in the region . I think this sanctions clearly exacerbated an already failing eye iranian economy. The economy was in serious trouble when President Trump pulled it out and these sanctions have clearly made life much much more difficult for iran. The sale the most recent figures less than 300,000 barrels. They were selling 2 million barrels. So the economy is hurting them. I think the economy is the regimes most serious problem. And in that sense, i would not be surprised if europeans dont join in and the sanctions because they have started the mechanism for fighting against iran and iran has no intention of changing its disavowal of that nuclear deal. So with more sanctions, i think the eye economy would hurt even more. Gerry professor, you wrote a very authoritative book or biography on the shaw of iran. Who was toppled of course in 1979, and youd describe in very vivid terms in that book, the final months and years before the shaws removal from office. Again, you are not in iran now, its hard to get exact information on whats going on. But are there any indications, is there a real expert on that. What you saw during that period, are there any similarities with whats going on now . Are we seeing now after maybe 40 plus years, is that regime facing the same unrest . Could it and the same way as it did for the shot . I think it is very similar and how it has had a series of crises. But i think theres one big difference. The shaw did not want to release blood he just it might have been his only way to stay in power. He then decided to do it. And then partly he decided not to do it because the u. S. And the British Government also told him there might be a nonviolent solution to this. This regime is not one who will give up when it realizes people dont want to. I think theres overwhelming evidence, a great majority of the iranian people dont want this whole inside of iran. Less than 10 are happy for this regime. Gerry s professor that was fascinating. Think every mentioned deed for joining us this week. Just ahead the president celebration of this weeks trade deal china could be a little premature. I will explain why. Im your 70lb st. Bernard puppy, and my lack of impulse control, is about to become your problem. Ahh no, come on. I saw you eating poop earlier. Hey my focus is on the road, and thats saving me cash with drivewise. Whos the dummy now . 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Com gerry odd one said this week at just about the same time that nancy pelosi was preparing to deliver to the senates articles of impeachment against President Trump, the president himself was announcing to great grandparents signature achievement of this administration. Phase one of a trade deal china. The impeachment saga looks like it will roll on for a while yet, but the outcome to that drama seems pretty typical. The china issue will also unfold but the consequences are much less certain. The agreement marks an important truce in the twoyear trade war between the two countries and will see a reduction in tariffs that will be good news for u. S. Consumers, farmers, some businesses. But there are two main questions, will the deal actually hold . Is there more to come . Will there ever in fact be a phase ii . By china increasing their imports for over 200 billion of the next two years. Thats a huge thing if it happens. They say there are strong and forced mechanisms to make sure it does. Its still a very big pledge. Pulling up that radical change in trade is a mighty tall order. But what about further progress . The u. S. Has left much of its tariffs on chinese imports in place depending upon the next phase. But for these tariffs to go as well, china must make very radical changes in the way their economy works. Scaling back some of its great technological ambitions. Now these are undoubtedly commendable goals of the u. S. Is probably right to be striving for them. But is china really likely to transform itself in that way . Well it seems unlikely. For now at least the china deal we have seems more like a one and done. So we are also done for this week. Be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook, an instagram. Join me next week when ill be at in davos switzerland talking to him some of the most influential people in the world economy. Thats right here on the wall street journal and large. You so much for joining us. You so much for joining us. Dr. Youssef jesus and only jesus is savior of the world. In this age of tolerance, in this age of compromise, this truth needs to be upheld with clarity and with love. Male announcer join dr. Youssef and thousands of other Frontline Mission partners around the globe who are making a difference for the kingdom of god. By becoming a leading the way Frontline Mission partner, you are coming alongside our team as we reach the furthest corners of the world with the lifechanging gospel of jesus christ. The same truth you hear each week