19. As a surge of new cases and hospitalizations strain Healthcare Systems across much of the nation. On thursday, the cdc advised americans not totravel for the thanksgiving holiday. Citing the rapid spread of cane ses. More than 1 million in the past week. Last year,55 million americans traveled for thanksgiving. Aaa 10expect eight drop in the number of travelers, which still mean tens of miions of people will leave home, many carrying the coronavirus with them. Joining us from san ancisco is the chair of the department of medicine at uc San Francisco. Drlker, thank you for joining us. What is the level of concern about Holiday Travel next week . Incredibly high. This is a terrible time, unfortunately during the pandemic, the virus is skyrocketing everywhere worse inthe midwest than other parts of the country. To california in some parts. A lot of virus everywhere. If you had to design an event to create more spread you would have different people come ta together and their masks off and have a meal and have a few drinks and sit close together. The virus would want a holiday, thats what it would is sad and weneed to do it differently or we will see more deaths than should. How are you planning to celebrate sang thanksgiving is year . Four people. My wife, my daughter and dro ch. They have all been in San Francisco in a pod. Even there we will keep more than six fe away aroua large table. We will order in from a restaurant. Its not exactly what we will do everyear but we want to stay healthy and stay alive. How do you recommendwho don think its risky to get together or is safe if you get tested prior to being together. Unfortunately, the test is not comptelyreassurance, if you knew everyone around the table had a negative test that day, you could reasonably comfortable its fairly safe to do. Of the logistics of that are pretty hard. So, what you are probably going to see is someone got the test four days agd ittook three days to come back which they were not infected fourys ago but doesnt mean today. I approach these things in this way. I say to myself, if things went wrong and somebody got very sick and god for bid, somebody died, would i feel goout having done it . Obviously, we dont feel bad about it but was that a reasonable decision knowing what i knew at that time. I visited my 90yearold father in upflorida a of months ago. Hes dying and i wanted to see him alive before he didied. I it with my eyes completely open. Thats the question i ask myself. If i got sick or or mother got sick because of it, what i feel like that was a foolish decision. I felt ke it was okay. Thats the test for thanksgiving. Well talk about vaccine. It changes because theres a light at e end of the tunnel. We are not talking about doing it for other, this holiday and christmas. Probably not next thanksgiving. Lets talk about the regulations in place. See the atistics about the number of deaths. To the survivability rate of 99 . They think the regulations are overblown. Is their accuracy in that line of thought x the accuracy is that the chances that you will die if you get covid are verela low. They are about five times higher than the flu, buits not like you have metastatic cancer or ebola i or hiv in the early days before we had treatmt. Thats accurate. Itthe chances are a bit varieddepending on who you are. If youre 25 years old chances are extremely low. If you are 75 ars old oran50 you have Heart Disease and are obese, chances are higher. We multiply 10 peoplear nd the table, all of those people around the table theres a decent chance one will get very x months ago we dichotomized see outcome either you die or its fine, have an unpleasant we. A fair numbof people will continue to have pretty bad symptoms for weeks and months. If you do cardiac tests on people a couple of months out even when they feel fine, there are admin maladies in a number of people. We have no idea what that means it may turn out that they hadi longst Heart Disease it causes problems later. Its not as simple as dyingor nothing, there are lot of other outcomes that we would care about. I think the key point is, even if the death rate is about. 6 percent, all comers, thats decentlyhigh chance of dying. Its not like walking across the street. Theres a lot of risks that we take in life, we get in the car and drive somewhere, get in the plane and drive somewhere. And none of those risks, and less you are ha gliding are anywhere remotely a. 6 percent chance which is one in 150 that you would die. Thats a big deal. What is your response for overnight counties inpurple tier. Intended for people to gather together in the night and go to bars. En why is that seof the populationrg with turnt . Around, the case rates are going pretty steeply high right now. If things dont turn around quickl will see more. Its a reasonable idea to say were not going to shgatherings going over to a friends house to drink, thats a risky thing to d as we try to move the dimmer switch to the right place, lets do this and see how things go. You mentioned atweet yesterday it feels like were looking at a split screen movie. On one side the horrors of the pandemic on the other is the bright hope of a vaccine. Its hard for the human brain tokeep thosthoughts and not have them clash against each other. The one screen is a surge unlike any we have seen before. Worse than most of us predicted. We ull thought it be a winter surge, did not think it would be this big and broadly distributed and this e cataclysmic in midwest. Is not yet cataclysmic in the bay area. But the midwest is a rror show right now and getting worse. We have to grapple with that. Yes we have better treatments, chances of dying are lower than it wouldve been six months ago. A lot ofpeople will die. 250,000 deaths. Thats hard to get your arms around thats the entire population of reo. L or buff orlando, discuss gail, arizona. On the other hand you have this other screen that showing this movie this beyond anything we could have dreamed of, 95 fective vaccines that it appeared to be extremely safe and will injected into people shoulders about one month from now. That soon . Yes, not everybody. Of the supply of such maybe 15 to 20 Million People can get vaccinated by the beginning of the year. Thd will be prioriti older people at high risk and healthcare workers. If youre not in one of those t categories, you will get it on january 1st. Is highly likely the drugs will be approved by the fda in the next two weeks. They will start being used probably by the third week of december. The vaccine news has been excellent. At the same time weve been having not a National Response or strategy. Has the vaccines been helped or hindered by the Trump Administration and operation warp speed. Help. Eeivehighly critical i think theyve gotten everything wrong. The messagg on masks, craziness about hydroxychloroquine and bleach and everything else. The whole thing has been mucked up except for vaccine. Vaccines, they got it right. These aming cynical we have companies. If we give them money and say you have no financial risk, go atever you can and get a ce vaccine out there in record time. We will fund the Clinical Trials which is expensive and of the rly stages of manufacturing and distribution, the minute one ready to go thing to do, thats a bold its cost about 20 billionbut it will probably shorten the pandemic by one year and get the economy back on track a year before it might have been. Brilliant investment. I think we should have nothing t praise for at part of the federal response. The last very few seconds we have here, concerns about the distribution adoption of the vaccines . Deral government does it. There is reason for concern, but i think we will probably get it right. Every state is gearing up to do it. Buthink the diston will be okay. It wont be distributed to 3 Million People on day one we dont have that. It will take time to ramp up. Of in terms whether people will take it there have been surveys that say half the people wont take it. Re but those a theoretical question. If you say there is a vaccine thats truly proven and e e results clear, 95 effective, perfectly safe, you may have flu symptoms for a day or two and if you take it, you will not have to worry about going into a restaurant or going back to work, your life can tocome back normal, im guessing the 80 to 90 percent of people will take it. There will be some people that wont but we dont need to get to 100 . We need to get to 70 or 80 . If im first in line as a ke healthcare wor i will be the first one to take it. Thank you for your time. Thank u. On monday, california governor, gavin newsom, announced this date is pulling the emergency brake coronavirus cases have rapidly increase. Is under the most restrictive tier, color purple indicating whites bread transmission. The Health Officers say the number of covid is reaching alarming levels. The largest city in santa clara county, san jose. Mayor, thank you for joining us. Good to be with you. There have been 280 new cases this week. N you describe the tuation on the ground for us . We are averaging about 300 now. Thats very worrisome for publan Health Officials all of us. It also means hospitalizations art taking upward and now almost twice as high as we h re one moago. Thats a grave concern to everyone. We want to make sure we have adequa capacity in hospitals and icus. Iv many restrimeasures are coming forward because we need them like so many counties througut the state. Oulets talk that. The Healthcare Providers in san jose, do they have the personal protective equipment, hospil facilitieseyventilators that eed to respond to a coming surge of new cases . What im hearing from our county officials, theyarare prg as well is a camp. They have demonstrated they are able to be prepared in the last we dont know where the peak ends. We havent seen it stop yet in h terms of a number of cases. And 2 to 3 weeks later we will see hospitalizations come through. Ne we emphasized anget your u ot in addition to get covid tested. We want to make sure no one is filling the hospital beds with flu cases. St that will ct our ability to deal with whatever we need to come our way with covid. As the mayor you are concerned with the health of the residence and economic realities. Thare intertwined these days. What do busiresses and dents in san jose need to pull through the difficult times . Do you, as the mayor, ve the resources to provide what they need . Bluntly, we need more money. S than easy thing for ci polis to say. In this case, we all know that congress has been deadlocked on providing any significant aid for several months now. We would love to sespeaker pelosis bill passed. But weve got to get money in the hands of small businesses. Many employees are laid f. Unemployment insurance has to get extended, people are desperate now. The new unemployment numbers in t n jose doseem to be that bad. Of the county is 6 unemployment. 5. 9 they just cameout. Things are getting better. We know it hides the alcruel y. Parts of my cmunity that have sufferedhe most from vid, the most hospitalizations, most deaths are communities like san jose, high latin population they are also suffering from unemployment rates that exceed 20 . We know the Tech Industry is more or less doing fine. Its the rest of the onomy. Of the Service Industry where so many of our modest incomeco, low residents are employed, we need a lot of help to help them survive. Lets turnto the new overnight curfew the state has put in place. Have you directed your police departnt to enforce this w regulation . The Police Department will enforce it to be sure businesses are closed after 10 00 if they are nonessential, which is erpretty much business. We want to make sure they are shutting down the restaurants ther socially. Fos may you will not see officers pulling people over if they are driving, for exorple. The govehas been clear, its not a curfew, per se, its a staya home mandate. E not interested in getting officers engaged in stopping folks that are on thr way home from work. We will be reful about th enforcement and focusing on places where people might gather. Governor newsom has apologized for gathering with others at a dinner party and he acknowledged he lost moral authority in the topic of ng social distan what do you think of his actions despite official warnings not to travel out of state . I illearned a ago, living in a glass house myself, should not throw rocks. Kudos for apogizing and bein forthright about it. He recognizes his error, we have all been there. Mayor, how will seyou, yo be spending thanksgiving this year . Will it be different than it was from a typical year x is my family mix of irish and sicilian and mexican. Its not gointo be that way. We will miss a lot of folks. We had a newborn baby in the family, my nephew. No we will miss seeing folks we definitely want to see. Obviously, its a painful time for a lot of families ght will have to hunkerdown, do the best we can to get through this. There will be a lot of celebration when we can get on the other side of this. When do you see the other side coming . What are you saying for how long they should be holding on . We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. We dont know how long the tunnel is. The announcements about the vaccine was very good. Thats months down the road before it will be widely available. We expectthere will be other vaccine. It may be the case and im not a Public Health expert, the treatments that we are seeing emerging will hopefully substantially reduce the mortality and may ableus to open up sooner. Im routine d r science an technology right now. In the meantimedo our best and keep our masks on. Mayor, thank anyou. You, pleasure being here. We turn out to Fresno County in Central California which has also rolled back to the purple tier. Of the sheriff and police said they will not enforce the new ernight curfew. Joining us by skype is the mayor. To thank you for joining us today. Thank you for having me. With Law Enforcement in surrounding counties say they willot enforce the curfew that the governor has announced will go into effect on at saturday. Least two fresno churches said they will be open and services in defiance of the orders. Are you concerand this resi will lead to more cases . I am concerned about it but i understand it. My primary responsibility is toe keep people in the city. Were looking at a curfew that is extremely difficult to enforce. We rely ar volu compliance. Our Lice Department has been stretched like many Law Enforcement agencies across the state. We are focused on a lot of serious crime with gangs murders, robberies, ive got to prioritize it. Certain things like restaurants. U are measuring the damage, people are overly fatigued by the covid virus and measure that again everyone is learning more. Hopefully were getting towards the end. In addition to not enforcing the curfew, fresno has said it plans to find businesses that stay open during the dain a manner that does not comply in the purple tier regulations, they have more people in their estaishment then allowed. The Code Enforcement is run by city council. I basically have the proach to try to educate people and pu not be tive. I cant guarantee that with certain covacilmembers. Of th majority of businesses in this area are good people, doing their job, struggling survive anthey are operating under the guidelines of social distancing, having plexiglass, proper air filtration thomas so on. There was a stanford study about mobility. Sically the lower level of 25 capacity reducing infections by 80 . In other words, you siare lly at the same 20 as ro capacity. Why not let these guys have some way to momake some y. They are on their last legs bridge without help from washington, icy industries being decimated. That will have severe consequences. Payment. Their rent or balance all the systems. Not to diminish any prospective systems. At a it sods like you are saying, you dont agreewith the state regulations and so you are going to do Something Different in a construct of way. Im not advocating that people openly rebel, but we have to depend on voluntary compliance. People have to trustei leaders. Weve been fortunate in fresno for the past half year. Fromve very diviissues that weve all had to go through in an election and weve kept together as a body. And we give the message to ofth peoplefresno that we are united and looking after your interest, not overzealous on one side or the other. It plays out, no matter what you do as an ex utive, this is a year from. Once in 100 years pandemic. We have wildfires raging, everybody has had to go rough all these layers. We meet once a week on resume wiother mayors. San francisco, los angeles, San Francisco or fresno we all have the same problems. Lets talk about the numbers in fresno. Acrding to Public Health department there more than 12,500 active cases in the coun. At lea3 deaths from covid 19. Tell us about your local capacity. Numbers are growing there as ate, across the nation and they are likely tocontinue to grow over the coming weeks, are you worrd about bein overrun . What i have done is we look at this every week. I think weve done an excellent joof allocating 92 million r contact tracers d testing people and ppts and ppes and so on. I think weve done a pretty good job in the overall operation of fresno. We are abou3 to 400 short on our daily testing. We are opening new clinics. We are expanding our ability to get turnaroundin 24 to 48 hour results. This is what we can do to help people be safe. Also the abily to track the data. Nursing homes, hbming from nehood parties, bars o restaurants. I dont want to throw the baby out with the bathter. I thinso far,at least at the 25 capacity on restaurants and retailers, we are not gaining that much by reducing the pandemic. Governor newsom is apologizing for recently attending digroup er and in addition california state law makers traveled to maui for a Law Conference including a state senator from fresno. As an elected opinion yourself, why should we trust our lawmakers wh they dont follow their own directives to the public. We have to lead by example. And nobody is perfect. I made a mistake recently, i attended a small dinner. And never leyour guard downt e example. Same applies to Governor Newsom and state legislature. You recently had dinner with your successor, mayor elect, rry dyer. He has announced that he has coronavirus and you have since quarantine. These are people ive known r for 20 these are not strangers i met at a rally. Even with family. My family this year, we have a very big family. Typically 15 to20 peopleor more. We will break that up into just immediate family only. Much smaller, much more cautions taken. Dont let doyour guard. My advice everybody out there, i realize this is an important time for people to get togeth. People are struggling economically. I think with the majodrug companies coming out with vaccinations in 30 to 60 days we can start to reverse this. But we have to keep infections low, maintain this. We have a Convention Center that er an ovow that we have not used yet. E appreciate yourtime, stay safe. Thank you. Now, for our look at something beautiful. The near time you out for a walk in San Francisco, explore one of the cities mosaic staircases, such as these tile steps on 16th avenue, built with community support. [ music playing ] we want to motake a nt to say goodbye and good luck for our show producer who is moving to oregon with his family to embark on a new adventure. Thanks r everything you have done, happy trails. You can find more of our News Coverage on kqed. Org. We will be off next week for thanksgiving, ll see you back here in two weeks. However you celebrate, all of at us qed newsroom u wish a safe and enjoyable holiday. Good night. Ca bptioning sponsoredy wnet sreenivasan on this edition for sunday, novemr 22 another setback for the Trump Administration as more states move to certify the election results. Covid cases surge ahead of the thanksgiving holid and, reckoning with history a Maryland College unveils a memorial to enslaved peoples. Next, on pbs newshour weekend. Pbs newshour weekend is made possible by sue and Edgar Wachenheim iii. The Anderson Family fund. Bernard and denise schwartz. The cheryl and Philip Milstein family. Barbara hope zuckerberg. The leonard and norma orfine charles rosenblum. Wtr