official who joins me in just a moment says there's no need to hyperventilate. put down the paper bag says jen psaki. she's here with us. first, let's get to our reporters with what the president is expected to talk about tonight and how democrats and republicans will react. joining us now, nbc news correspondent garrett haake, and chief white house correspondent and political analyst, peter baker. peter, bring us into the planning from the white house's perspective. what should we expect? >> i think you're going to hear the president talk about a few things. first of all, he's going to talk about his accomplishments. he's going to try to remind the country of how things were when they were in the country when he took other the period, in the middle of the covid pandemic, lockdowns, social unrest in the streets. there was of course the january 6th attack on congress and the economy was in free fall. i think he's going to try to remind people how things have gotten better over the years, and take as much credit as he can. he's going to talk about reproductive rights, freedom, he's going to expand on the issue of abortion to say not just abortion but other rights like ivf and possibly same-sex marriage and gay rights are at stake in the election. he's going it talk about of course democracy and what he sees as the stakes of the election, former president trump threatening to come back in many ways, mr. biden's view, threatened the enormous and traditions of an american democratic system. >> this morning, speaker mike johnson spoke to cbs, and he talked about his expectation, what he wants to hear or what he thinks he should be hearing from president biden. let's play some of that. >> this president is projecting weakness on the world stage. when president trump projected strength. from the reagan years, we maintain peace through strength, we're doing the opposite, and it's dangerous. we have to take care of our priorities first, and take care of securing our own border. if you don't have a border, you don't have sovereignty, security. we're actively looking at the options on all of that, the supplemental that you hear so much about, the supplemental funding. >> this is speaker mike johnson trying to come out and say, the reason i'm not passing aid to ukraine or israel is because of immigration, even though there was an immigration bill that was out there that he didn't bring to the floor. garrett, talk to me more about how this is going to play with republicans. >> over the last several years, we have seen the state of the union morph into something more analogous to question time than the house of commons in the uk. the people who were supposed to be sitting there listening, would be more participatory in nature. if and when president biden brings up the border or border security bill that republicans asked for, only to tank at the behest of donald trump. that seems like the kind of thing almost guaranteed to bait house republicans into a response. which johnson we have been able to report has told his members not to engage in. there's not a lot of love lost between the congressional republican conference and president biden, and i do expect this to have perhaps more of a conversation tonight than we're traditionally used to seeing, and it might be in the best political interest of those republicans who might be better served to let the president say his piece and use it again him later. >> prime minister question time is more interesting. both sides have to get up and debate each other. >> you're the foreign correspondent, katy. i'll leave that to you. >> i wish that we had a version of that here. i think it would be really ill elucidating. going forward, there's a feeling he has to adjust for his polling right now. which is not so great. the americans don't believe the economy is doing as well as it is. does the white house believe that the president can make a difference on nights like tonight. >> it's one speech, obviously, and nobody should attach too much importance to a single speech. it's the largest television all of a sudden audience he's going to have all year. the state of the union is when people check in. it's his chance to reset the expectations and the understanding and basically the fact set. you're right about the frustration that the president hasn't gotten more credit for an economy with almost record low unemployment, strong job growth, you know, record stock markets, wages on the rise, and so forth. inflation obviously remains an albatross for this president. it has come down to about 3%. lower than it was, unfortunately for him. prices haven't come down, and a lot of people are still trying to pay at the grocery store larger bills. he's going to try to take credit for that. he's going to try to begin a month of campaigning. i think you'll see him get out on the road, philadelphia tomorrow, atlanta on saturday. cabinet is going out on the road, his vice president. in a way it's really the starting gun of the 2024 general election contest just two days after trump sealed the republican nomination. >> peter baker, garrett haake, gentlemen, thank you very much. joining us former white house press secretary and host of msnbc's "inside with jen psaki," i want to go inside your head. the title of your show is perfect, especially for today. you tweeted people should put down the paper bag, don't hyperventilate. there are a lot of people worried about the outlook of the coming election. democrats are worried. why are you not one of them? >> everybody should be a little worried. the polls are not good for the president, the white house. there are also some things that are challenging for president trump, former president trump. good lord. former president trump. that i think people don't talk about or focus on enough. right now, one, if you look at the results from tuesday, 2/3, a third of voters in virginia and north carolina, two important states coming up in november said they would not vote for trump. will they vote for trump in november? got to do some work in bringing together even his own party. that's one. two is he has a huge money problem. he's way behind on cash in hand. he's spending money on paying for his lawyers. the biden team and the dnc has a huge money advantage. they also have an operational advantage because they have been working with state parties. the state party system for the republican party is in complete disarray. just look at michigan. i tweeted that because i think there's a lot of paper bag breathing. some of that is healthy. democrats should be breathing in a paper bag a little bit for sure. there are operational things. you need money. you need an operation to run a campaign, and he has work to do bringing his party together. >> it's a much more professional campaign than 2016. the outreach, the effort, the organization on the ground looks a whole lot different. in 2016, they relied on donald trump being out there and getting his message across to the american public either through the campaign rallies that were covered nonstop. i understand there's a lot of anger about that. >> we don't have to have a therapy session about that right now, and also directly through social media. he's not using twitter any longer. these are two men the american public knows. how much does money matter. >> money does matter because money helps you organize and it helps you operationalize your message. for joe biden, the fact that he has a ton of money. what has happened since 2016, a lot of things obviously but an insurrection has happened. >> is that still on top of people's minds. i know it is for a good portion of the population. time does make things hazy. protecting democracy son people's minds. if you look back, i read a bunch of old state of the union speeches so no one else had to, i suppose, but if you look at how the president ended the speech last year, i expect it to be something similar. basically, we're at an inflection point. it wasn't an attack. it didn't name trump. i don't think he's going to name trump tonight, it's not his style. who we are as a country, the fundamentals, the systems we want to protect. people do believe in that. i'm surprised by how much it moves people in elections but that has happened over and over again. i don't think that should be urn valued. >> president biden's performance, his delivery, the way he gives this speech, are you looking at that? >> yes, i love that you're almost whispering. everybody should be looking at his performance. look, i think going into tonight, there's a couple of things you look at if you're sitting in the white house and you can't control all of them, including performance. you want to tell a story. president biden loves a listical, he is also a good story teller. the performance, everything from how he walks down the aisle. we're all going to be watching and talking about who he shakes hands with, is he energetic, how is he walking, how does he interact with mike johnson, everyone, right? but it's also does he have stamina, and does he have a strong ending to the speech. do people feel it is an energetic delivery. this is always a thing. anyone who tells you differently is not being honest. >> going forward, tradition is that the nominee of the party gets an intelligence briefing. the nominee that's running for president. donald trump got his intelligence access revoked after he left office. he was seen as a security threat. donald trump is going to be the nominee, and there are plans to once again start those intelligence briefings, again. here's what john bolton said about it on another network. >> i would not give him access to classified materials. no other candidate has been under indictment for allowing classified information to be compromised and given the pend si of that indictment alone, i wouldn't give him the briefings. >> this is his former national security adviser saying that. >> i mean. >> so why is he getting these briefings? is there a reason to forego tradition in this circumstance? >> i think there should be, here we are in 2024, what ambassador bolton said makes a whole lot of sense. i have had him on my show a lot of times too. that makes a ton of sense. there's a traditionalness. i don't know if that's a word. there's a traditional aspect of government agencies for good reason, and i don't know if they're requirements or things that put them in a place where they have to deliver it, but yes, all things being equal, it doesn't make sense for a person who has been indicted for sharing information from classified documents to be receiving intelligence briefings. >> did you describe the white house, talking about being indicted, there's a chance currently that if the supreme court knocks down the immunity case and sends the election interference case back to judge chutkan in june, say, that this will go to trial in september, potentially. is that a good thing or a bad thing for former president trump? does the white house see him on trial right ahead of the election as a problem for them or as a benefit? >> they will tell you, they don't think about it. of course they think about it. i think it's a good thing for them if that happens. they can't control it obviously. jack smith, as you know, and you said many times, as others have, the guideline doesn't apply to this case. >> also the judge can decide, and the judge is not beholden to that guideline. >> here's why, especially in that case, the election interference case, which you could argue the new york one too. the january 6th case, when that is front and center for people, that is the case that has the most political power. >> our friend claire mccaskill argued it would be good for donald trump to be seen on trial. he would campaign entirely from the courtroom and make it look like he's a victim. >> he might, but that doesn't mean that works with independent voters or democrats who might sit at home. what's different between now and 2016 is there's a lot of people in the democratic party and independents who absolutely really hate donald trump more than they did in 2016. this is just a reminder of the role he played. >> there are more people who hate him in 2024 than 2020. >> i think so, yes. >> turnout, we saw turnout in 2020 for donald trump and president biden. he had more, which is why he won. do you believe that those same voters, the same number of voters, the same enthusiasm that we saw in 2020 exists for 2024. and if so, where does it come from? is it just all because people are terrified of donald trump? >> it's not all donald trump hatred, though some of it is. this is why it's been clarified for the electorate, including people who are just not that enthused about engaging this year. when they're reminds donald trump is the nominee, it's not changing. nikki haley is not the nominee. that's good for the biden team. it's also abortion rights. what's happened between now and 2020 is of course the dobbs ruling. that was a big motivator in 2022. it pushed out what people call surge voters. people who voted because of that. i think the biden team is betting on that. it's incumbent to remind people of what's at risk. >> it's so good to have you. especially good to see you in person. please come back as often as possible. >> i would love to. >> jen, thank you. and still ahead, what america's first ivf baby thinks about the alabama ruling that halted the procedure. she's headed to the state of the union tonight, but she's going to join this show first. and what is a better indicator for november, public opinion polls or past elections? the two are in conflict. which can you trust. plus, what is going on with donald trump's finances. he just asked for yet another stay on his e. jean carroll bond. we are back in 60 seconds. one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only 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>> what's so interesting about this debate right now, when i was born 42 years ago, essentially the same debate was happening, but then i was born and many people realized that i was just a normal baby like everybody else. so while the ruling was devastating to the ivf community, i'm hopeful that through efforts like those of senator kaine and duckworth that we can move forward to actually protect ivf on a national level. >> what's your message to those who argue that an embryo should have the same rights as a child, elizabeth? >> so i think it's critical here that people understand the science of ivf and understand that one embryo does not equal one baby, and it takes many many chances. ivf is sadly not a magic bullet, so really, it takes a lot of effort and a lot of eggs and embryos to actually end up with that live birth. i think that's a critical piece that many people have overlooked. >> senator, why was it so important for you to invite elizabeth tonight? >> katy, when i heard about the alabama decision, particularly i was in birmingham the day that the university decided they had to terminate all ivf procedures, i just thought about all the people i know who have used ivf or been born by ivf, something in the back of my head said i think this story might have started in virginia. when i got back home, i did my research and found out about elizabeth being born at norfolk general hospital in 1981. she used a chilling phrase, i feel like i'm an engaged species, and that made me reach out to her to see if she might want to come and be part of the state of the union tonight, and inspired me to join with senator tammy duckworth, the access to building families act that would create a right for patients to access ivf and providers to provide ivf services in every zip code in this rnt can. and -- country. we're going push to get it passed. >> speaker mike johnson was asked, he said this will be an issue for the states. there will no federal law regarding this. do you think there's a chance this legislation, if it comes to the floor in the senate and passes the senate, which is an if, would make it out of the house? >> i do. here's why. the votes are there on the floor of the house. the bill is the committee where i serve, health, education, labor, pension, i think we can get this bill out of the health committee with a significant bipartisan vote on the floor of the senate. we'll have 51 democrats. we need to get at least nine republicans. but i think we can get there, and if we can get there, i think with all the republicans on the house side saying of course i believe in ivf, well, this is the bill that will test whether it's words or whether it's commitment and action, and i think we're going to move urgently on this. >> there's an up hill battle for control of the senate for democrats. the electoral map does not look great for the democrats' chances of keeping the senate. does this bill get brought up if the republicans are in control? >> i think we got to do it now. i mean, partly because of the issue of control as you mentioned but also you've got parents all over this country. i had a round table with many of them in norfolk monday, and another one tomorrow in northern virginia who are very afraid right now, they're worried about whether they can build their families in the way they plan to and providers are afraid about whether they can just treat their patients in the ways the patients deserve. so for a whole lot of reasons, but most especially the urgent need to give people a sense of comfort and confidence that the way they plan to build their family will be open to them. we need to move quick. >> elizabeth, what do you want to hear from president biden tonight? >> i would love to hear him bring up protecting ivf nationally. that's high on my wish list. many people that's high on their wish list. it's an incredible honor to be here and represent the ivf community, and more than 12 million babies around the world who have now been born through this technology. i think we'll all be listening intently this evening. >> what about katie britt delivering the rebuttal, the senator from alabama. >> look, because she's from alabama, i don't think she can avoid the elephant in the room. she's going to have to talk about this. it's not whether you're pro ivf, whether you support legislation that's pro ivf. alabama said guess what, we'll give you immunity if you get sued. that's not the same as saying we embrace ivf. if you get immunity, you might worry about your licensing or credentialing. if you're a family, you worry whether there's a chilling effect that will make providers decide i don't want to do it in this way. i'm going to do this somewhere else. let's make sure families know if they choose this way to build their family, they can do it. >> is this about science or religion? >> everyone is entitled to their own religious beliefs. what puzzles me as a catholic is people saying they're pro life but fighting against an innovation, a human innovation that has created 12 million lives. think of the net effect of these 12 million people living their best lives, raising families, bringing joy to their families. contributing to their communities. it's such a net benefit for the world. why would we want to erase that from who we are as a planet. >> senator tim kaine and elizabeth, you were pants down, one of the cutest babies i've ever seen. that cover of "time" magazine, just adorable. elizabeth carr, thank you very much. have fun tonight. it's going to be a special experience to be in the room. thank you both for joining us. >> you bet. >> thank you. what voters are telling us about the economy and what economists say it's going to look like, the economy that is in november. >> how does the economy feel to you? >> it doesn't feel well. you know, they say everything is going better, but it doesn't feel that way. t way. oooh! i can't wait for this family getaway! shingles doesn't care. shingles is a painful, blistering rash that can last for weeks. ahhh, there's nothing like a day out with friends. that's nice, but shingles doesn't care! 99% of adults 50 years or older already have the virus that causes shingles inside them, and it can reactivate at any time. a perfect day for a family outing! guess what? 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what will make them feel better about it. nbc news correspondent dasha burns asked some of those voters in erie county, pennsylvania. >> reporter: daryl grace has lived in erie county, pennsylvania, all his life. an avowed steelers fan and muscle car aficionado. in 2020, he voted for biden. three years later, the economic growth isn't helping him. >> how does the economy feel to you? >> it doesn't feel well. they say everything is doing better, but it doesn't feel that way. >> daryl's kids, both in their mid-20s and employed still live at home. >> when i retire, i need my kids to be here for me. my golden years, me and the wife. >> you thought you would be empty nesters. >> yeah, you know, having fun, you know. >> reporter: as for his vote come november. >> if it's biden and trump, it's bad. >> reporter: are you considering going third party? >> yeah, yeah. >> reporter: president biden narrowly flipped this bellwether county in 2020 thanks to strong democratic turnout and won the state. with his approval rating on the economy at just 36%, polls show swing state pennsylvania is very much in play. >> i think he has done a good job. >> republican turned independent, mary anne is planning to support biden. >> we did not go into a recession. it's kind of surprising that people aren't more in support of him. he has a real pr problem. a big pr problem. >> reporter: that problem for the president is playing out at eduardo's tavern, where we met a group of conservative customers. >> you've got low unemployment rates, wages are up, inflation is easing, stock market's doing well. but are you feeling any of that? how do you feel about the economy day-to-day? >> i'm not sure i agree with what you just said. >> i never planned on using some of the money that i saved to retire that i had to use because of the economy. >> groceries, gas, everything you have to buy every day is way more expensive than previous years. >> reporter: do you think like there's a disconnect between what the biden administration is saying about how good the economy is versus what you feel? >> absolutely. >> i think us now, nbc news senior business correspondent, christine romans. make sense of that for us, if you can. >> reporter: you look at top line numbers that could show maybe the best economy in our lifetime. when you look at a grocery bill and the issue of fairness, the white house wants to cast the president as on the side of the american people. i mean, tonight you'll probably hear him talk a lot about the costs you face in every day life, and how he has been for the past year trying to lower the costs. he'll talk about tax fairness and say, hey, wait a minute, we can fix a lot of problems by raising taxes on people who are really really rich and promising not to raise taxes on anybody who makes less than $400,000 a year. he's going to try to not say, the economy is good, you should feel it. he's going to say, i get that you don't feel the good economy, and here's how i'm trying to make sure you can. >> maybe the best economy of our lifetime, are the numbers that good? >> record high in the stock market, never seen stocks this high. a gdp that continues to charge ahead. the size of the american economy is bigger than it's been. unemployment at a 50-year low. we have demographics that have never seen unemployment rates this low before. grocery costs are 25% higher than january of 2020. they take up a bigger share of the average american's budget than anytime since 1991. think about that. it's the grocery bill that is still a big problem here, and you'll hear the president tonight talk about all of these ways that people feel nick ld -- nickelled and dimed. shah heard that from the people. in all of these little ways, they feel like they're not getting ahead and the president will try to tick through all the different things he has done and the things he wants to do, and the things he wants congress to help him do to try to get costs under control for, you know, for families. >> interesting, christine romans, maybe on paper, the best economy of our lifetime. that's incredible. christine, thank you so much. coming up, nbc's richard engel flies with the jordanians as they drop aid into gaza. what they say. >> and eight months out from the election, what is the polling telling us and what is it not telling us? 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>> you know, that's a really good question. katy, and i love the way you broke that down but i'm going to say neither. because we're in such a different place politically than we were 20, 30 years ago, so i think to a certain extent when you go back and look at historical presidential elections, america's a very different kind of politics. i think what matters most right now is quite frankly, from a campaign standpoint is do you have a good story to tell. and you look back at all of those presidents who got reelected, regardless of where they started, and approval ratings. they all had good stories to tell, right. clinton had a good story to tell in reelection. carter did not have such a great story to tell. bush, other side. bush had a story to tell that resonated with america. especially around safety and security. barack obama had a good story to tell. does joe biden have a good story to tell? you just talked about it a couple of minutes ago. it's literally the best economy we've had ever in our history. so can he tell the american people a story about the economy and the job he's done, and where we have, you know come through the storm and better on this side. i think he can. can he tell young voters who are hanging back from him, katy. can he tell young voters a story of some accomplishments around big things that they care about. this presidential has done more around environmental issues than any president in the past. can he tell young people the story. again, not voting for trump, there's a false narrative that black people are breaking for trump. it's completely irrational, but i'm worried about them sitting at home. can he tell black and brown americans a good story. whether you look at his record around policing and him having the most diverse government we have ever had and appointing the first african-american woman to the supreme court, i think he has a good story to tell that just got to do a good job of telling it. >> can he tell it, that's the question. do you expect he's able to do that? >> well, he can't do it tonight. i know we in the media, we hype up the state of the union, it's a big thing for us, but he can't do it in one night. the truth of the matter is what they've got to do tonight is regardless of what happens in the state of the union, they have to win the after, the spin. the truth is that social media and what goes viral and republicans have been winning the battle on social media. so it's not in the substance. it's can democrats win the social media spin battle afterwards because that's the stuff that's going to level on long after most of us have forgotten about the state of the union address, and he can't turn around all the numbers, but he's sitting on a war chest for his campaign. they're going to have to spin to turn that around. >> cornell belcher good to have you, thank you very much. what donald trump's lawyers are begging a new york judge for and why. also, nbc's richard engel was on a plane dropping aid into gaza, what he saw, next. vapes increase cravings - trapping you in an endless craving loop. nicorette reduces cravings until they're gone for good. i know what it's like to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. right now you can get a free footlong at subway. just buy any footlong in the app and get one free. just scan the qr code and enter promo code flbogo. it only works from the other side of the screen, buddy. you still got a land line in your house. order now in the subway app. with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, my skin was no longer mine. my active psoriatic arthritis joint symptoms held me back. don't let symptoms define you. emerge as you. with tremfya®, most people saw 90% clearer skin at 4 months... ...and the majority stayed clearer, at 5 years. tremfya® is proven to significantly reduce joint pain, stiffness and swelling it's just 6 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge as you. emerge tremfyant®. ask you doctor about tremfya®. if you're living with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis or active psoriatic arthritis, symptoms can sometimes take you out of the moment. now there's skyrizi, so you can show up with clearer skin... ...and show it off. ♪ nothing is everything ♪ with skyrizi, you could take each step with 90% clearer skin. and if you have psoriatic arthritis, skyrizi can help you get moving with less joint pain, stiffness, swelling, and fatigue. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. thanks to skyrizi, there's nothing like clearer skin and less joint pain, and that means everything. ♪ nothing is everything ♪ ask your doctor about how skyrizi could help with your skin or joint symptoms. learn how abbvie could help you save. 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"deadline: white house" starts right now. hi, everyone. it's 4:00 in new york. to truly understand the black and white contrast between president biden and donald trump, just take a look at what's happening in the next 48 hours. president biden takes the podium for tonight's state of the union address, he will be on what is likely to be the biggest stage for the president before election day. that fact is