Pennsylvania, they will change the name. They will change the name. How the Keystone State has become the crucial battleground. s co what the Harris Foundation is doing is so important. When all in starts right now. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes. The Labor Day Holiday is over its a first tuesday in september. First day of tuesday in november, its happening. We are two months out, 63 days to be precise which means the sprint is sent to the finish and republicans are getting nervous about one thing in particular. Party leaders on Capitol Hill are warning their donors, they need more money to compete with democratic spending. The head of the republican Party Senna can obtain told political the only thing preventing us from having a great night in november is a massive financial disparity the party faces. Lets be clear. Its a Fundraisers Job to sound panicked and asked for money. Maybe youve seen that in phone techs you receive. Donations have been through the roof since trump became the face of the republican party. This race looks different. In this case it looks like some of the panic is warranted. We dont have a full August Fundraising tally yet from both campaigns. In july, the his campaign raised 310 million, more than double the 138 Million trump raised in the same period. The Spending Gap has rarely, if ever, been to this day. Look at the key Battleground States with the situation for republicans is so stark. Look at those numbers. Pro harris groups are spending roughly 10 times as much as Pro Trump Groups and biting political ads in michigan, nevada, North Carolina, and wisconsin. Three times as much in the state of arizona. Thats according to political Data Analysis from Add Impact which tallies these buys on television. That they call us so spending disparity. Its the kind that might make a difference. There are two Swing States where despite the huge disadvantage right now in fundraising, republicans are keeping pace from democratic spending and it tells you where the race will come down to. Those Are Georgia and pennsylvania. In those states, Pro Trump Groups seem to be prepared to be outspent everywhere else that is in play but not in Georgia Or Pennsylvania where they are matching pro harris spending almost dollar per dollar. The reason for this . Its the Electoral College. The bizarre antidemocratic system of president ial voting this is no matter how many people vote for you for president , you still need 270 state electors. A system that is caused enormous problems in america like when george w. Bush and Donald Trump both lost the Popular Vote but won the elector cora lunch. In 2020, it was the Perverse Incentive in the machinery of the Electoral College the provided trump with the opening to try to steal the election with among other things, fake collectors, plan that culminated in the January 6 insurrection. That was the day the Electoral College votes were going to be tallied. The Electoral College is still there, its in the constitution, operating in the background in every strategic position, but campaigns need are determined by it. What you are seeing in the spending of the trump campaign, i think, they have one main pass to victory that they appeared to be putting literally all their money. That is this map. Envision these results. The same as 2020 except, so everybody holds the states the party won except Donald Trump flips two states. Georgia which Joe Biden one by 11,000 votes and pennsylvania. That gives him 270 electoral votes to 268 to Kamala Harris. Under that scenario, trump becomes president again. A Nightmare Mapper democrats. Heres could sweep the rest of the Battleground States a win by millions of votes. 5 Million votes, 6 Million votes, it wouldnt matter. As the Washington Post pointed out, trump can hold North Carolina, the only one of these he wont go in 2016 and 2020, and he takes georgia pennsylvania, he wins over harris. That map is a high risk, high Reward Strategy for republicans. The reason were talking about this is that at spending we showed at the top of the block. What is very clears pennsylvania is absolutely crucial pivotal to that. As you mightve gathered from trumps last rallies. When im back in the white house, mayor come in future will be here in pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is always a big factor. Weve had great success politically and otherwise in pennsylvania. The workers of pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania. Its a very consequential vote in pennsylvania because they say, if you win pennsylvania, you will win the whole thing. We cannot let these people win pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is almost as crucial for harris as well. If she wins there, she leads the polls but in the margin of error. All the states will be close. If she wins there shes in good shape. She can win and Longshot Scenarios without pennsylvania. She could hold Georgia And Flip North Carolina which democrats have won in quite some time. For both campaigns, the Keystone State looks like a true keystone to victory. Thats borne out in the campaign this week. Harris and President Biden rallied in pittsburgh on labor day. The campaign Sing Harris will return there on thursday. A running mate Tim Walz is beginning his own trip to multiple parts of the state of pennsylvania included lancaster on wednesday. Even Doug Emhoff is expected to campaign in allentown, pennsylvania. Trump is expected in Harrisburg Tomorrow to fill my Town Hall with Sean Hannity of fox news. Other than that he has no major campaign stops this week. Im joined by Nbc National Political correspondent steve kornacki. Its good to see you. 63 days from now. You have your stamina built up . I found the spending data pretty fascinating. Indicative of where they see the raise. And like you said, the importance of pennsylvania and how direct the path is. You hold North Carolina fear trump. Less than 12,000 votes in georgia and then pennsylvania. They think their opportunities there in pennsylvania maybe a missed opportunity in you put it that way, you can see the interest. From both campaign standpoint, the one thing to keep in mind is in either case, if you lose pennsylvania, its the largest of the Swing States for electoral votes. 19 of them. Georgia 69 carolina 16. Michigan 15. If you want offset a loss in pennsylvania, it requires two other Battleground States. Thats the key map. Lets look at this 270 map. Which we were showing before. Youve got nevada, arizona, wisconsin and michigan, p does not win those. He does manage to win pennsylvania, flips georgia, and told North Carolina, thats the narrow 270268. And appears were to get wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, and nothing else, she would have to hundred 70 as well. If she loses pennsylvania, she has to offset it with two from the Sunbelt States. Its the first among equals. One of the Nightmare Scenarios keeping me up at night but i dont think is a possibility more likely was when biden was in the race and it looked like he would have to hold the Blue Wall and is pulling in nevada looked really bad and to the extent they were pulling the single congressional around omaha, he had a shot of holding the Blue Wall even losing Nevada And Arizona and georgia, holding the one congressional district and just getting 270. I worried about what that would mean afterwards. Pressure on nebraska lawmakers. That narrow path seemed different now that nevada seems to be pulling in a different way. Nevada, they are a state to pull there and its always been demographic opportunity. You have that huge bluecollar, White Population trending. Harris has made strides with nonwhite and hispanic voters. Young hispanic voters. Where are you going to find voters like that, less likely you find them in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. You will find them in Sunbelt States so theres more opportunity for democrats down there, but that being said, biden winning georgia, thats the first time a democrat won that state since 1992 and it was just under 12,000 votes. Arizona was 10,000 votes. These are extremely narrow margins that biden took these states by. Theres a pool of sort of political history there that keeps the states winnable for republicans. This two aspects about Georgia And Arizona, something weve been talking about and and as you been briefing us. There is the polling but then theres the kind of people living in the kinds of places they are in the voting groups, democrats do better within the Trump Era versus republicans. One of the things that characterizes Georgia And Arizona is as enormous metro areas as a share of total vote for the state. Georgia, the atlanta area, phoenix area, as democrats have done better in metro areas including the suburbs, thats been a richer pool of votes for them and part of the map that allowed them to pull off. Metropolitan areas suburbs are fastgrowing. The Atlanta Metro areas fast growing. Thats with the democrats, counties there the democrats were losing by 30 points 20 years ago. Or macron may. Think a now win by double digits. They are rapidly diversifying and filling with democratic friendly demographic. Youve got that in Georgia And Arizona. North carolina is interesting because it sort of fixes for democrats. The research triangle, Raleigh Chapel Hill area. Mecklenburg county where charlotte is. Youve got that if youre a democrat but if youre a republican and you look at North Carolina, democrats have been flexing their muscles in the metro areas but trump has been in rural counties across the state. Not just rural counties but midsize counties. Relatively speaking, there is a larger bluecollar, white, White Population is assure the electorate in North Carolina. Offsetting trends which weve seen an election after election. Midterms. You see it in texas with the metro areas, Harris County, democrats winning 12 years ago. Now they win Harris County pretty reliably. Dallas suburbs better than 12 years ago but the margins in the rural areas in texas, they are going from 65, 35, 75, 80 20. You can talk about a state like wisconsin too. The suburbs outside milwaukee are still republican suburbs. A lot of suburbs have gone. The same is happening there. There becoming less republican. Its hurting republicans whats happening in the suburbs but in wisconsin, trump is upset a lot of that. The offset all of it in 2016 and he one the state. He nearly offset it in the rest of the state in 2020. Democrats have to worry when you look at the bowling,s clothes in these battlegrounds but it was true biden and true of harris. Her best numbers tend to be coming from wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, lets see more polls, but we so with biden in 2020 and receiving it with harris now. It has been with noncollege white voters and they are in abundance in those states. Theres a Question of whether they adjusted properly. Everyone has been doing a lot of work on this. There is a Question. s payment you cant adjust for nonresponse bias. You can take every precaution to say we need the right number of noncollege white folks in the survey did be representative but there are noncollege white voters who will vote democratic. At the republican ones arent answering the phone, you will get the democratic ones. If youre selecting the variable, i dont want to talk to you because im talking voting for Donald Trump. Its difficult to model. Thats the asterisk that comes with every poll, particularly those states. If you look at 2020 georgia looks incredibly good. About georgia pooling, in races that were close, Georgia Polling held up pretty well. Wisconsin there was the famous pull in October 2020 that had biden up by 17 points and he wins the point by a fraction of a point in the end. Is every poll you see from those states, thats the asterisk that comes with it and we wont know until election night. Its great to have you here. Will do this more. Pull show Kamala Harris gaining Ground Son trumps go to issue. Safe steps best offer, just got better now, when you purchase your brand new Safe Step walkin tub, youll receive a free Shower Package. Yes, a free Shower Package and if you call today, youll also receive 15 off your entire order. Now you can enjoy the best of both worlds the therapeutic benefits of a warm, soothing bath that can help increase mobility, relieve pain, boost energy, and even improve sleep or, if you prefer, you can take a refreshing shower. Allinone Product Call now to receive a free Shower Package Plus 15 off your brand new Safe Step walkin tub. The border, the actual the border, the actual physical place, thousands of 9[f [5vll the obsessively about that might be starting to shift. In april, poll showed Donald Trump Clobbering Biden on the issue of immigration which has collapsed. Voters say they trusted the Ex President more by 17 points. The latest edition of the same poll released on sunday, trumps advantage has eroded considerably. He leads harris by s Nine Point on immigration. Theres a few things at play. Remember, members of senate worked with republican senators to hammer out a bipartisan Bill But Trump ordered senate republicans to abandon their own bill to kill it out of cynicism hoping the problem would get worse so it could benefit him so he could have the Headlines T about chaos at the border. The fact that trump ordered republicans to abandon their own bill was mentioned just about every 20 minutes and the democratic national convention including in Kamala Harris is t exempt in speech. Theres something else at play. This stunned me when i saw the data. This chart shows apprehensions by u. S. Border patrol at the u. S. Mexico Border October 2020, still in the thick of covid, until july 2024. Okay . You can see it start slow. The pandemic. Not a lot of people crossing. I want to bring your attention to it started in january of this year. Look at that, the numbers fall sharply. Then continue to trend down. The latest data from July Show Border Encounters were at their lowest erpoint since September 2020 in the teeth of the pandemic. I think thats notable. No one is ringing the bell about that. We oonly hear about the border when crossing several. The underpinnings have changed. I think it created different terrain for this issue. The one Issue Trump wants to nt run on. The one hes confident enough wants to talk about all the time. Part of what shifted the issue was that bill. The negotiator was Chris Murphy of connecticut who joins me now. Senator, we talked a bunch through the negotiations of the deal. The Announcement And Trump killing it. Throughout the time you said we have to tell the american people what we have done here. Did you have the same impression i had at the dnc which in the list that whoever wrote in a Cue Card for top five messages of the dnc, the Border Bill was in the top five. Yeah, for once weve been good and consistent about a message and its a simple message that is true. Republicans talked about the border but didnt care about it in fact they wanted it to be a mess because it was their oxygen. The way in which they convince be scared. Of folks who came from a different country or spoke a different language. When they were presented with this bill that would have dramatically declined the number of people arriving at the border, they panicked. They realize they might lose this issue electoral he. Donald Trump Toll his pals in the senate to vote against it. We called their bluff. They said they wanted to fix the border and we gave them the bill that wouldve done it and they voted against it and it exposed to the country the real agenda which is to complain about immigration and complain about the border trying to divide americans. The message is really simple. You can tell the story and 15 seconds. Democrats and republicans wrote the toughest Villain Decades and Donald Trump killed it because he wants the border to be a mess. It speaks to the underlying insincerity people believe is at the heart of Donald Trump. Its not a hard story to sell. The convenience of being true as well. Ie 100 true. Devils advocate Question. Republicans will make this argument. One of the arguments during negotiations was the president unilateral power. Legislation as a crutch and after that trump killed the bipartisan legislation and the president did take some Executive Action at the Border And Weve seen this huge drop. Everyone wanted to because of affect, you press a button, tens of thousands of disparate Human Beings making decisions under calculated decisions. What do you say to people who say we didnt need a bill . The president Push The Button and the numbers go down . It is true that actions of o the Biden Harris Legislation have crossed of it being lower today than at Cthe End of the trump administration. The combination of good and smart diplomacy with mexico. Diplomacy that wont be available to Donald Trump. He will have an antagonistic relationship. Due to the fact the biden administration ended up implementing through Executive Order on sections of the ad bipartisan bill. The problem is its not clear whether those Executive Orders will stand up in court. Theres an open Question if they have the legal authority to do that. The administration first pursued making those changes, they had to shut out the border and changes in asylum to expedite how we process those claims through statue. Only when they failed because of republican obstinance did they move to implement it by Executive Order and adding combination with diplomacy with mexico is made a difference. Thats why americans look at the record of Joe Biden in reducing crossings at the border. They look at the hypocrisy of Donald Trump turning down the ability to add a bipartisan achievement and they are coming to the conclusion that maybe democrats are actually better when it comes to the issue of immigration and Border Security. Immigration and Border Security has been one of my peeves in this whole discourse. My feeling is the country deserves an Immigration System thats orderly, humane and in the countrys interest. We dont want chaos and we want people to be treated like Human Beings and dignity. Its good for the country. On the last point i thought the dnc did a good job and Kamala Harris talking about her parents being immigrants themselves. That part of the equation which is we are lucky as a nation that a lot of people who want to come here who are amazing people. It is good for us. That bart gets locked out of the discussion the more you talk about the border as this fixation. People do not want to give up on immigration as a core american value. The do not find Trumps Message in the nations best interest but theyre not interested in a party that doesnt talk about Border Security in the context of a broader immigration reform. For long time democrats didnt lead with the conversation about fixing the border. We talked mainly about how we can humanely treat folks who are in the country which is an important topic, but all of a sudden, our message resonates with a crosssection of americans because they want a country that allows folks , tit flee terror but they wanted done in an orderly manner. When democrats talk about Border Security and use that as a means to talk about a pathway to citizenship and quicker work permits, it creates a buyin for the american public which results in the republican advantage disappearing in part because they really dont want e this dystopian world where the local sheriffs turned into Openair Detention camps which is what trump is selling. Always good to talk to you. Thank you. Coming up. Audio j. D. Vance being weird next. Ext. O cleaning your gutters. Good thing theres leaffilter. Our patented Filter Technology keeps leaves and debris out of your gutters forever. Guaranteed. Call 833 Leaffilter to get started. And get the permanent Gutter Solution that ends clogs for good. They took the time to answer all of our Questions. They really put us at ease. End clogged gutters for good. Call 833. Leaf. Filter, or visit leaffilter. Com today. Have you ever considered getting a walkin tub . End well, look no further d. Call 833. Leaf. Filter, Safe Steps best offer, just got better now, when you purchase your brand new Safe Step walkin tub, youll receive a free Shower Package. Yes, a free Shower Package and if you call today, youll also receive 15 off your entire order. Now you can enjoy the best of both worlds the therapeutic benefits of a warm, soothing bath that can help increase mobility, relieve pain, boost energy, and even improve sleep or, if you prefer, you can take a refreshing shower. Allinone Product Call now to receive a free Shower Package Plus 15 off your brand new Safe Step walkin tub. The Harris Campaign under new clip of j. D. Vance repeating the same exact offensive ideas about childless women, its a gotcha moment. The guy believes what hes saying. Its not a few childless Cat Lady moment. Hes been appearing on podcast talking about how womens only purpose is to give birth to children, and if women do not fill said purpose, they are miserable and useless. We are effectively run by you the democrats and Oligarchs By A Bunch Of Childless Cat Ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices theyve made. They want to make the rest of the country miserable too. Kamala harris, pete buttigieg, aoc, the future the democrats is controlled by people without children. How does it make sense we have turned our country over to people who dont have a direct stake in it. You go on twitter and almost always the people most arranged in most psychotic are people who dont have kids. We just got another one, this is j. D. Vance in a podcast in 2021. Its worth hearing. The republican nominee for Vice President fully explained this. What does the elitist culture does, they take some very smart people in our society, they filter them in a small place, and they tell them to want the same things. Clerkships, Law Firm jobs, consulting gigs. Nice cushy jobs at private equity firms. They tell them the only way they will be happy is to get those things. Those people end up focusing on career and then credentials at the expense of things that make people happy. You have people in law school, women who think the Liberationist Path is to spend 90 hours a week working in a cubicle at mckinsey instead of starting a family and having children. To me, its a Value System to replace that they are fundamentally agnostic. They have no Value System. There only Value System is achieved in a conventional way. And so, the idea that somehow they are pursuing racial or Gender Equity is like the Valium System that gives their life meaning. Clearly, this Value Set has made me a miserable person who cant have kids because i passed the biological period when it was possible. I live in a 1200 square Foot Apartment and pay 5000 a month for it. I am better than these other people. With double do is project my racial and gender on the rest of them. The Reason Society is broken is because these people dont think the way i think. Even though the way i think is made me miserable, i need to make more people think like that. Just the women, you notice. The guys who work 90 hours a week, thats great. Its no accident j. D. Vance repeated this. He audition for roles of the future republican party. The spot he holds on the ticket, influential people on the right, Turco Carlson and those in trumps circle and they agree with him. No we show how close he is been to the visionaries behind project 2025 from the very beginning. More on that, next. Shingles d. But shingrix protects. Only shingrix is proven over 90 effective. Shingrix is a vaccine used to prevent shingles in adults 50 years and older. Shingrix does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients or to a previous dose. An increased risk of Guillainbarre Syndrome was observed after getting shingrix. Fainting can also happen. The most common Side Effects are pain, redness, and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, tiredness, headache, shivering, fever, and upset stomach. Ask your Doctor Or Pharmacist about shingrix today. Trump keeps insisting he and his campaign of nothing to do with project 2025. J. D. Vance makes it difficult to believe as the New York Times and covered in 2017, the Heritage Foundation put out an weird essays lambasting Ivf And Abortion Rights Scapegoating the index of cultural and opportunity. You will never guess who wrote that and deliver the Keynote Speech at its public release. What were less comfortable talking about is the Question of culture. Its important about this index and about the conversation we are having today. We are recognizing the importance of culture and recognizing that it influences the opportunities the children who grew up in circumstances i grew up in, that it affects her opportunities. An Opinion Column is in the New York Times and joins me now. I remember that childless Cat Lady on Tucker Carlson being gross and offensive. You could be forgiven for being, is trying to play up the darker. He says something stupid sometimes. Its a fixation and the way he goes to incel. Its about different kinds of people. Its about politicians. They are corrupt because there childless. Its journal is. Lawyers. His Go To Expression Of Contempt is to say that this group of people globally is childless. What is striking is the rift we play in the previous block, if you took gender out of it and said Elite Culture tells people the most important thing is grabbing the Brass Ring and working all the time, i would say thats true. Thats not great. Its always women. Its always women. Women, women. He is married, talking about a clerkship and becoming a lawyer. He is literally talking about his wife. She quit her job after he became the Vice President ial nominee. Its interesting because when the original childless cat ladies, he said i wasnt talking about children with people choosing not to have children but now hes talking about people who cant have children. Your biological window has closed. Right. I didnt read hillbilly elegy when it came out. I read it when he reemerged as a Vice President ial prospect. Thats a book that seeds with anger. J. D. Vance is someone who is ill treated by both parents. Both of them let him down phenomenally, but the amount of anger he has at his mother for not fulfilling her maternal role compared to the anger he has at his father putting him up for adoption, its a different scale. He has this trauma he projects on to everything around him. This volcanic anger. Thats a good point. One thing that comes through was feminist critique of the antiabortion Rights Movement has always been, whatever you say about life, you are obsessed with controlling women and womens reproductive faculties and thinking that is the sum total. Here is from the report on pregnancy in 2017. Heritage, between celebrities having children well into their 40s and companies adding benefits like Egg Freezing technologies, women are lured into believing they can have children when they are ready. However the biological clock is ticking. These discussed in light of the new novel solutions that they lure people into thinking we can do for motherhood. The reason for opposition to ivf is because we think embryos are full Human Beings. Thats an out there position. Its a position of the catholic church. This is pure, this is out. Its a way in which you think you can circumvent the natural Life Course we have decreed for you. The whole thing is drooping with this desire to control how other people choose to live their life. Specifically, women. How women live their lives. Should we check with j. D. Vance . When hes Vice President , does every women have to check with them . Its not your business. I find it so weird. And people get that. There is this weirdness. Donald trumps has his own problem with women but its his desire to molest and objectify them as a personable. J. D. Vance wants to condemn and control them. People get that from him. Its interesting to think of the degree to which the harris Walls Campaign has morphed. Sitting on some enormous podcast stockpile. I said on this show before that we dont pay attention to the fact that j. D. Vance blurred the book that came out this Summer Calling for praising franco in talking how democracy is not enough to destroy the subhuman class. Its this vicious book. Theres so much j. D. Vance, his spent so much time in that netherworld that theres probably an inexhaustible supply. The final point which is important is this is not accidental. Him making the tour of podcast to talk about this stuff is not unconnected to him getting the gig. That was the audition. That was his path out of never trumpism into the heart of maga. Its always great to see you. I will be a guest on late night with seth Meyers Tonight on nbc. We had a great discussion about the dnc in learning about biden dropping out while Mike Kid was bouncing around a Bounce House and whats next in the president ial race. For the third for the third night in a row, thousands of people across israel were on the streets in protest. In tel aviv, Hundreds Of Thousands in the largest protest against prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the attack on october 7. The largest Labor Federation for a general strike to hit the biggest airports, schools, and other businesses in response to the gutting news of the deaths of six hostages in gaza. Their bodies were found in a Tunnel In Rafah on saturday. A spokesperson for the israeli military said they were killed by, shortly before israeli forces found them. One of the victims kidnapped from her Cub Foods and the other five were from the Music Festival and among them a 23 yearold israeliamerican whose parents tirelessly fought for his release. Here they are speaking at the dnc last month. This is a political convention. But needing our only son and all of the cherished Hostages Home is not a political issue. [ applause ] it is a humanitarian issue. At his sons funeral yesterday, his Son Father Citi field you. Maybe her death is a stone, the fuel to bring home the remaining 101 hostages. The funeral for one of the other hostages, the Grieving Mother implicitly criticized the israeli government for not bringing her son home alive. Frustration over the Prime Ministers seemingly constant Shifting Rationale for why cant make a deal to return Hostages Home. Netanyahu has been resisting this please refusing to change course. Many israeli public seemed to lose patience feeling the window getting the hostages back alive for closing. Im trying by editor at large, michelle goldberg, Pinion Politician at New York Times. Peter, i was affected by those words from the Hostage Families in morning. It was interesting to see the reaction in israel and the reaction, u. S. which seemed different. In israel it seems clear that a large understanding of the dynamic is we will only get these people back if we have a Ceasefire Deal and the Prime Minister doesnt want it are the dynamics. Benjamin netanyahu at the beginning said the two goals were to destroy hamas and bring the Hostages Home. It was pretty clear that those two goals were in profound tension with one another. What is now clear is not only that there diametrically opposed but that Israel Cannot destroy hamas. It has destroyed gaza but even the own security chief, his spokesperson, idf said its a fantasy to say Israel Cant destroy hamas but now you have is really saying we cannot destroy hamas and now youre preventing us from getting the Hostages Home too. Its unbearable. One of the things about this, michelle, is the brutality. We should note there are 40,000 palestinians who have died. There are, we dont know the status of the 101 hostages. Theres been this almost kind of waiting quality. This week and played clips of Joe Biden around the corner from a hostage deal. Its seems whatever Leverage Policymakers have. They are not willing to use it. You have this Prime Minister of israel who was almost wholly selfinterested. Who knows if this were concluding, he would probably be going to prison. His motives are cynical and who is refusing, obviously is hamas full of bad faith . Yes. Making these demands of this continued israeli presence in the socalled corridor. He is refusing to make a deal. The united states which is already outlined the terms of the deal would look like because of domestic political Pressures Cant exert the leverage that would force him into a deal. There is a lot of people in the united states calling for an Arms Embargo but structurally, that they difficult thing within the current configurations of the political coalition so that wont happen. The israelis know theres no way it will happen. The degree of contempt he has for american politicians. His total confidence that he can manipulate them to his liking. Peter, this conflict to me seems the most similar to in terms of historical president as the war in lebanon in 1982. I was reading about that last night in the wake of this and looking at the time line. That goes for three years. The marine barracks are bound, 200 marines loses their lives. Its brutal and awful, and the politics are terrible. The massacre that happens. Its enormous domestic scandal in israel with people on the streets but it goes and goes and goes. It goes longer than you think it could. And remember what comes out of that in terms of the politics, hezbollah. Israel in beirut and they sow the seeds for hezbollah just like america couldnt imagine anything worse than. Its a organization that is done despicable things. If you only have a Military Response and you dont address israel or the united states, the fundamental denial of palestinian freedom, even if you were able to succeed, you would probably get something even more militant. What do you think will come out of the ruins of gaza . All of these people who have seen so many other Family Members killed . This is the strategic, the strategic mistake of this whole enterprise. That point. Gap. The fundamental strategic point of israeli politics that you hear over and over forces the only thing they understand. The idea that the people in this conflict with can be, there will be a point where they are beaten into submission. Peter your point about 1982, the tactical goal was to shake the plo out of lebanon and they succeeded. They definitely did that. They went to Tunisia And Hezbollah came up and everything that proceeded from the. Thank you both so much. Thats all in on this tuesday night. You doing, buddy . Img, alive, man. I made it. I did, too. Still standing. We did your podcast and now we vanish from the world and were back. Were back. 63e days. Thanks as