Hello and welcome to cross talk were all Things Considered im Peter Lavelle 70 years ago this week china started down the path of communist rule over the past few decades china has emerged or rather reemerged as a leading world power rivaling the us the communist party can rightfully claim a string of stunning successes but challenges remain whats next for chinas extraordinary revolution. Cross talking chinas revolution at 70 im joined by my guest fred tang in new york he is president of the America ChinaPublic Affairs institute in hong kong we have andrew willing he is an international and independent china strategist and in knoxville we process our issue she is so. China Rising Capital forecasts a Research Technology company all right cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate sarah let me go to you 1st in knoxville the 7 do they honored verse 3 of the. Communist china the advent of establishment of the communist state of china is a remarkable event without the soviet union only lasted 69. 00 and now china is at 70 and theres so much to talk about there are so many successes and there are so many challenges if youre the average person in china if there is such a thing what are they thinking on this day go ahead sir. I think that people are generally interested in celebrating this day its certainly an exciting time its a major anniversary and i think people are generally happy with their living circumstances theyre wealthier than theyve ever been its definitely something that in 1949 people could not have imagined would be the case and i think generally theres a celebrate story feel like in the air ok for fred kind of the same question because what do they what is the communist chinese light leadership what are they most proud of 70 years on go ahead fred. Well i think that china in the last 70 years for 3 stages the 1st is the 1st 30 years theres a lot of challenges. And then we have a 10 year period and they try to open up to the west and theyve been defying their work so that really is the last 30 years that they have livy that 3600000000 people are the problem tedious to working on the science the technology the infrastructure every way education for the people like sarah said. The people are very very proud and this is the time for them to look back and see how far they have come charley just but also looking back make you realize where you are i think thats thats whats going on in china you know andrew but its only been in the last couple of years that china is seen as a threat a growing threat a challenge to the International Order and in any in western media is particularly very unkind to china remarkably so theres a lot of people to talk about china they dont know much about it i have a panel that know a lot of about it and have a much more nuanced view of china the world is the world celebrating all along with the chinese 70 years on go ahead andrew. Well youre going to trace back history a little right back that didnt have a square and of course the whole world and. All the rows up against a common is china which is all the terror in suppressing this people and so on so forth but i know. The battle and there came nixon and also Henry Kissinger and there came a period honeymoon period whereby the United States want the china on their side so as to thought otherwise all russia. And so that there came a honeymoon period in the side of china with a ship and then also for the little bit china was more into the night with theo the World Trade Organization ringback because it was felt other by brain china in philadelphia theo tonic could produce all the all the cheap products of production that we all saw the china and then all the. Of the cheap products the benefit of the American Consumers and there also is the hope that china would be more like the west now to see more would become more liberal and then even more than credit. But end of the so many years this hope was lost i mean that the the the this this up newitz of the fact that time is a lot like the United States by any means and not ringback only is is is is a mockery of the saying that he shares the nike shoes anymore its lollop trying to eat americans lunch in 5 g. Technology and so on so forth and and so the fear that there is a rising power with a different regime with values at all d its with those in in in the west you know sort of the east into a rat race all the china threat and then this translates into d the 160 degrees pushback against china across the aisle in. Well senator i mean it wasnt really naive because i thought it was naive is that well get them in the w t o and theyll become good jeffersonian democrats which is ridiculous here why should china change its culture for the dominant power the United States ok it worked within the its an unbelievable Success Stories on so many different fronts again there are a lot of challenges and a lot of challenges are facing them now because of their success i would say year but it was naive that they were going to become like the west why should chinese become westerners thats a question that is not often asked in washington go ahead sir. Well china is sort of the case that proves all of the other cases wrong that is that a commies that are rowing have to be democratic china went against the grain for that and i think that the west lost hope to some extent that china would change its authoritarian regime after tenements where happened in 1909 i think for the entry that westerners believe that china would open up its economy fast which it has in terms of trade but its been far less less quick in terms of financial liberalization and i think that you know thats something that a lot of westerners are disappointed and serious have seemed to come to terms with chinas status as a communist nation up until the recent administration trumpet ministration in the us. Some bad feelings also in europe due to trade differences but it wasnt until recently that the west started to call out china and view them as being somewhat in the wrong yeah i mean fred it was its interesting to me that its only been in the last year or so that if you look at the Mainstream Media the for a decade it decade and a half it was china china is rising china is developing its expanding. Look at the success of the chinese but it was only when the last year and now the communist regime of china is a threat to the United States i mean theyve actually kind of changed the rhetoric here because theyre looking for well of course china is a threat to the western order because it doesnt want to play by its rules i dont see why china should you need to negotiate you need to deal with each other in good faith thats how youre going to move forward here but its our way or the highway and that doesnt go down well the country that is successful is china fred. Well i think that thats true and however it didnt start really from those Trump Administration i think globally its a nationalism and this lot of dissatisfaction with their own government you know using china as a scapegoat its one way that this administration is doing i think if youre looking at in terms of the were all the or you in the definition of democracy i think that all nations should have a role in terms of defining this right now the current way of even defining democracy is by a very few countries who are the victors of the 2nd world war but theyre not including china or russia into that discussion and that definition is set however that might not be. In the right for everybody a suitable for everybody you know when i was talking about in terms of the the other nations i do think that china is respected by a lot of countries except the few western nations i think thats very good sandra i mean if you make a comparison of the just in this century in the 21st century all of the money the western countries particularly the United States leading the way washing incenses all the trillions of dollars wasted on foreign morris but the chinese have spent all their money on infrastructure not only in their country but across the world its not exporting its model its economic model or political model its certainly not to spread. Democracy is it me the chinese might understand it i mean and i think thats a lot of the nx that people get from about the chinese because the chinese still and i as a criticism of my own still cannae say below the radar and there are you know theyre building factories here bridges there are all kinds of things around the world and they just keep moving on and the west everyones well wakes up in the middle of night and says oh my goodness what are they doing theyre trying to conquer the world well theyre theyre expanding world trade bringing tens of millions hundreds of millions of people out of poverty i can tell you in the part of the world that i live in the youre asian landmass Chinese Development is welcomed ok it creates prosperity go ahead andy. Well 1st of all you can look at the experience during the cold war for example i think in the way both china and russia and the u. S. As a whole in those days were trying to explore the common ideology around the world and the west saw ringback all that as a con of. Communism is sort of the overtake and i think its a cold war the cold war yeah the cold war yeah but no this is no longer. There was a burglary in the sense that. Theres a whole new set of this track where why is it being so what it was its so active by rising superpower or claiming. And especially such as a rising civil counsel but they. Go into the system this one and the high ranking u. S. White house it was a lady who said so well this is coming from caucasian culture so its always a class of 0 as asians you know. These 2 forces d. That all would just well you know happened before. Lets go to sara last 20 seconds in this block go ahead sarah real quick. Yeah i actually would contest the idea that chinas. Chinas idiology can just perpetuate itself and i think that the economy has run up against limitations in terms of like the governments intervention in the economy and so i think that china will come up to its own barriers in terms of its idiology politically that will prevent it from growing further economically ok its a very good point i want to return to that were going to go to a short break and after that short break well continue our discussion on chinas revolution 70 years on state with r. T. Rather going to follow. Through on the set of one among them. A promise to remain to. The high. Of this month when the sun shone. From. The north near me a lot of those. That feel the same when we did the board. With this manufactured consensus to the public will. When the ruling classes protect themselves. With the final. One percent. We can all middle of the room sick. Welcome back across the uk where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle to remind you were discussing chinas revolution. Ok lets go back to sara in knoxville before we went to the break so you said some something really fascinating to me about what that what kind of barriers that china is going to face i guess in the next 70 years of its revolution expand on some of those points and some of those problems go ahead sir. Right so there are limitations to Market Forces in china and we see this in the stock market we see this all throughout the Financial Sector where there is sort of a ceiling on the level of profits that people can make simply because theres a lot of government involvement if anything goes bad the government gets involved if theres a bubble the government could intervene and in addition to that a lot of the companies that are listed on the chinese stock market are affiliated with the Chinese Government and so theyre not growing as fast a lot of Academic Studies have shown that a lot of state owned beggs state owned enterprises have fewer Market Forces than private enterprises chinas private sector is still relatively small and even though its continuing to grow so i think that in the next maybe even 10 years china is going to face a barriers to further growth simply because it needs more competition and it needs more Market Forces it needs to be able to generate innovation without fear of potential cracked out a reprisal on some of the riskier ideas and so it could be really problematic you know if its can do with that theme fred you know the the the communist party of china it i would argue with a lot of its legitimacy because of so much success over the last few decades pulling so many people out of poverty i mean it is and andrew pointed out early in the program you know they just dont make a deed as shoes and t. Shirts anymore they make some really remarkable high tech things here what do you think the Chinese Government is going to do to facing that challenge because i think sarah related out really well go ahead front i kind of disagree with so because i think if most of them were alive today you would not recognize that i was part of the of today neither would i even though he was the one whos the open the reform policy he would have seen so far that the countries have come so far with his policy. I dont think he was imagine the success is has achieved so in terms of the communist party or the Chinese Government does not change thats wrong if we look at every 10 years they have made dramatic changes and making those changes at the same time creating stability within the society and moving ahead so i will see that there will food to be opening up. Without creating chaos without creating a bubble in the in the stock market and with the i would actually disasters a financial disaster like this means ok sarah jump in thats the heart of the program its the point of the program go ahead yeah i would i would disagree with that i mean. The governments has limitations and in order to stay in power the Chinese Government has to has turned control over the economy and we see that despite market opening up the government has remained in control of state owned enterprises has really focused on them in the past few years in terms of our fore and its something that is innate we connected with a communist government i dont think that china will be able to get out of that and allow Market Forces to entirely prevail i think its going to remain a problem ok let me go to andrew i mean you know i dont think maybe all surprised all of you but i dont worship the markets ok because the markets do get skewed ok and i am really glad that there are controls there to a point ok to a point i think i would agree with sarah that sometimes government regulations and controls can make an economy brittle and not be able to expand in the way it should ok nonetheless andrew theres nothing that succeeds like success and so you know when i look at the last major trade agreement that the u. S. And the chinese were working on and then it suddenly collapsed because essentially United States wants to dictate the terms and conditions of reforms in some sectors of the chinese economy if were talking about china here not panama no offense to panama but i mean china is a power to. We reckon with why should the United States or any other power be dictating the internal structures of the Financial Sector. Other sectors of the economy what why should china be dictated to when it can say no go ahead and do. Well i like to follow up on the reference the nothing succeeds like success because thats exactly what the comedy spot is trying to do is kids on reinvent reinventing itself so that they come with a spot in our days its not the same as the governing body at the time of chairman mao in terms of the attitude towards life of the prize and the at the day it was the market and so on so paul and i i agree with the notion that saving enterprise is going to remain for a long long time this is part of the cult of this ideology their faith that in in fact the state based on very Important Role in driving by the enterprise approach so all there is a we all the. The visible hand of the state is even in the well this is like the United States were thinking about the success of the invention of the internet for example with our state intervention in the in the military research i mean this may not have happened or at least what happens on voss and he will even look at now. A country so far since theyre almost there in the book state owned enterprise us you know some of the big biggest events banks up ill say so i think this they dont have to buy system on please come of this. But i think the challenges ahead i like to refer to a lot of big i mention the fact that chinas or suspected or the remarkable achievements of all this in fact if you look at the period its not 70 years ringback because china only open up in i think 70 lines so yes in 40 years this Company Changed but then but then. All the time its respected sunnys lot like why a lot of countries even every search in. Africa where chinas investments. You know the better this is the last time is makes closed. On sunday is soft you know what the soul. Institutions kind of institutions and. Some sort of a check and balance the sort of. Institutions the regulate. The market puts on hold and open up the market with all sides. And also being the head of the state so. You know what it has to be the right mix ok im going to come half way with you on that has to be done right and that is good and that is very very new once you know the 1st stages of china opening up and developing its economy thats like primitive accumulation thats its not hard to do is long as youre given the conditions but when it becomes more and more intensive than that i do worry about government regulation let me let me go back to sarah. During the last 40 years that need to mention there china really surged upward and there wasnt a whole lot of attention there wasnt this sense that it was a rival thats a relatively new idea right now how is that going to change the dynamic of how the communist party rules and how is it going to change the dynamic about how the economy grows because its an its an export oriented economy its the factory of the world its an amazing phenomenon but thats being tested right now to cities trap was already mentioned on this program and its it is its invoked a lot recently for good reason because the u. S. Is watching go ahead. Yeah i think that china has been increasingly defensive particularly with a truck that ministration because it you know the trap administration is saying look at made in china 2025 you know. You guys are having like a government funded move towards High Technology that could undermine our own interest and so china is being increasingly defensive and really trying not to call out other players on the world stage but just trying to justify its own existence i think its going to have to do more than that Going Forward in terms of economics i would say that china also finds itself in defensive mode particularly with us at this point. You know its because its some of its firms are high tech firms its something that the government is very much behind and these high tech firms are finding themselves in the crosshairs of u. S. Economic policy such as huawei and you know so this is going to be problematic for china its going to have to figure out how to negotiate this without looking like its going to dominate the world and i know that a lot of people are very nervous about one belts one road view it as a war. Military or can i see even though it doesnt necessarily have the capacity for that let me answer your questions or since you brought it up to use your words does china want to read the world do you really believe that. No i dont say i dont think so either you know people view china the west is increasingly viewing china sites yeah but i mean let me go to fred but you know i mean you know andrew brought it up again again he brought it up 1st before i did i when i look at how the western media treats china there is an implicit racism in there all of the time and its really extraordinary from these liberal Media Outlets but they do sound racist because a non caucasian non western power is challenging the current paradigm and i dont see any reason why the chinese are going to look backwards because they have a whole lot to look forward to is the west tears itself up over ridiculous ideological things but i dont want to go into it because i get sick and tired of hearing about it but china has every reason to look forward last minute goes to fred. Yes i totally agree with you its a lot of racism going on not only against china but also against Chinese Americans in the United States people always think that while rocking these Chinese People how can they do so well they must be stealing this is not true early on you have talk about china being exploit country which is also changing right now china is g. D. P. 80 percent is still mastic strong the percent is export and United States account for 30 percent of that 20 percent so its a total of 6 percent of chinas total g. D. P. How to relate it to get that the states theyre working with the rest of the world and theyre moving ahead i just want to add one more point about state owned enterprises state owned enterprises what we call the dragon head industries every country needs industries for it to sustain itself you know i used the word for it dragon industry. When United States bricked up Big Companies like that they were breaking up its own infrastructure to date in the. Go amazon facebook if we break up those industry we will have another dynamic changes in the United States for the better i i think fred is ending the program with to share a will and i agree with him to a large degree many thanks to my guest in new york konkani and in knoxville and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r. T. See you next time remember crosstown rules. What politicians do something to. Put themselves on the line to get accepted or rejected. So when you want to be president when she. Wanted. To go on to be prosperous like before her in the morning cant be good. Im interested always in the waters of our. First sit. Down again by north korea and so many people because they copied him hes so good that even such a bad copy is sending. Im not killed to plug anybody in. Im here to find the next guy. Who looked up live up to any human being done the and felt something good luck she went on plenty of. The clicks and moves for the c. E. O. Saying to the deflection what is comfortable saying. That is going to be better than i got up to many observers. That he and others are going to write about that on the board. That you can bank on to let them look up a. Long long while and then he goes along the bottom theres a playlist which alone can speak a lot older. Than to a new person and they are turning over 100. 00 gandhi a new normal gandhi. Please trust me to keep you know you can go to mock you then they will join you. You can smell that the yeah i respond its a bit like eggs but with chemical. In the french city of rwanda monitoring the troops on the all stars massive fire as a local chemicals factory this owes insists the its safe to breathe. You can talk to any foreign aid when you have any type of contact with the smoke its dangerous i have 4 kids and they were impacted by the smell and migrates i think there is a risk for our health and i can feel it. 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