Could it be new yorks former mayor Michael Bloomberg . Just seven days until the Iowa Caucuses, the first voting of the 2016 president ial nomination. Donald trump is again the man with the momentum. According to lathest poll, 37 are going with donald trump, meanwhile, texas senator ted cruz is lost his lead in iowa, leadinlead losing hislosing his. Marco rubio stands as 14 . All the republican candidates barely register in the single digits. And trump is so confident of his win that this is what he told iowa voters over the weekend. My people are so smart and you know what else they say about the people . The polls, they say i have the most loyal people where you could see that . Where i could stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldnt lose any voters, its like incredible. The polling indicates that Trump Supporters are the most committed in this race and yet trump is not taking any chainschances with ted cruz. Cruz just released this negative ad hammering trump over Immigration Reform. I want Immigration Reform to pass and it allows those here illegally to come out from the shadows. They are pouring in and doing tremendous damage if you look at the crime if you look at the economy we want to have borders. The trump momentum continues to alarm the republican establishment and he has literally sparked top conservative intellectuals to throw a hail mary. When it comes from the 2016 endorsement of the race, anyone but donald trump. Chris christie and john kasich are giving up on iowa. But the only thing is drumple uh trump is in the lead in New Hampshire too. Jeannie, we have you on tape. Three or four times in the last couple of months saying theres no way donald trump will get the nomination. You want to take this opportunity to take the back . I do not want to david. Im sticking with it. I do not think he is going to get the nomination. There i said it again. How if he is up ten points in iowa, 20 points in New Hampshire, even more in South Carolina . I do think cruz is going to give him a run for his money in iowa, cruz may not win iowa but iowa is all about getting people out to the caucuses and i still see no evidence that his supporters are going to be out there. Because historical they have not. So he could lose numbers there. I think he is going to do much better in New Hampshire. But you have People Living up in New Hampshire as you mentioned Chris Christie or john kasich, you add some of their numbers together and they do give trump a run for his money. I do think he is going to find as the race winnows down that he doesnt have the support he needs. Im sticking with it, im the only one left. The cnn numbers suggest trump was down 10 in the beginning of january now up 10. What can we point to as far as pushing the numbers, is it the question of cruzs eligibility, that cruzs temperament that he doesnt get along with anybody . Are the negative ads having an impact . I think all of the above. And that he took money from wall street, it wasnt just trump jumping on the band wagon, it was also the New York Times and people like john mccain, whether it was wall street, taking the money, whether it was about his temperament, hes famous not being liked amongst his own Party Members in the senate. I think all of those things have added on and we have seen cruz his numbers are starting to drop in iowa. That said, he spent more time in iowa than any other candidate and in a caucus state that usually does pay off. I wouldnt write cruz off yet. He has most of the money he needs to make a run for it and stay in. Next to trump he has got almost more money than anybody else in the race at there point. Its not like the primary, where you go in and vote, you stick around for a couple of hours, the process, on a cold winters night is not an easy investment for people to make. Caucus is unlike anything else, america at work. You have got to get people out to the caucuses, they have to stay there and push for their candidate or maybe they have to cross the room to the other side. So trump has got to fe get these people mobilized and out. Are the supporters going to spend the evening at somebodys house or at a school and advocate on behalf of their candidate . We dont know that yet. You mentioned the time ted cruz has spent in iowa. Others , carly fiorina, ben carson, if they dont end in the top 3 thats it for them right . Thats it. Ted cruz has more staying power but iowa is a pluswin state for those people and this is a mustwin state for ted cruz. You are are hard pressed to know where he goes after iowa. Again after New Hampshire if somebody like Chris Christie has invested enough time in New Hampshire as he has and doesnt come outer better than expected you are hard pressed to know when he goes forward after that. Second or third place in New Hampshire whether its jeb bush or Chris Christie, the establishment is looking for one of their own that they could run as an alternative to cruz or trump. If somebody ignores iowa, like jeb bush, coming in third in New Hampshire, does very a real chance . I think so, like marco rubio has been endorsed in some few days, he anyone but the establishment is what some are looking for, leeway to somebody who doesnt quite win iowa or New HampshireNew Hampshire but makes a strong showing and they think has the wherewithal. Harder and harder to support, unless they have the support monetarily or from the polls or the establishment. As far as the general election, intriguing to say, former mayor michael blookberg saying, im looking at the general election race, what sort of ima impact would michael bloom intrerg on that race . I dont think he will get into the race, youre hard pressed to imagine he could get the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. I think if he does decide to enter and very well might i think it would draw evenly from both sides. Somebody on issues like gun control alienates people from the right or the left, i think that means he has assessed and other people have assessed that she is weak. Ed whether its by the email controversy or something else. Jeannie how is your voice . Donald trump wins, jeefni jeanns going to be singing an apology. I will not be singing. You will be singing. Jeannie, a pleasure as always. Thought it would be a cake walk, instead democrats in iowa and New Hampshire feeling the burn and Bernie Sanders numbers are surging. In the diffract president ial race, vermont senator Bernie Sanders is make the race with Hillary Clinton far more combative than pundits could ever have imagined. Now sanders is outspending her on Television Ads and the latest polling shows the Iowa Caucuses on the democratic side are too close to call. Sanders ahead of clinton by eight points, but there in the right, clinton beating sanders by eight points. And sanders lead in have energized his supporters and changed the dynamics of the race. Today in iowa we saw how Bernie Sanders is turning the raw emotion of struggling americans to political advantage not only against clinton but against the gop. Here is what he said to a woman who cried when telling her story living on the minimum wage. The truth is you cant make it on 12,000. You cant live in dignity on 10,000 or less. And millions of people today are in that position. And then, amazingly enough, beyond comprehension, and i dont mean to be overly partisan but beyond comprehension you have republicans going around saying we got to cut social security. We got to cut it. What people are getting is too much. 10,000 is too much. Today we also got a look at how president obama sees the battle between sanders and clinton in an interview with politico, president obama rejected the notion that sanders is an idealist and clinton is a pragmatist. Some of that language includes sanders telling the Washington Post that clinton is now running a, quote, Desperate Campaign incapable of generating the type of excitement he has produced. For her point clinton said, im not interested in things that sound good on paper but will never make it in real life. Sanders and clinton will appear on a town hall in iowa. Michael shure, Bernie Sanders is now running a very conventional campaign in that hes hired a pollster, he has a chartered plane hes using. Any of this a surprise . Sort of a surprise. No frills to frills, and its a Necessary Evil in these campaigns, there is a practicality to what sanders is doing david. One of the things you talk a little bit about the energy, schirl not Hillary Clinton is not going to replicate and her crowds are not going to replicate the passion and energy that Bernie Sanders has on the trail. You look back to 2004, howard dean had all this crazy energy in iowa and New Hampshire and all of that energy didnt get people caucusing. It is a little different. Bernie sanders has galvanized people behind him but i will say this Hillary Clinton and the clinton people have taken Bernie Sanders quite seriously all the way, something they didnt do with barack obama in 2008 and that lesson may be something shes learned. Its no less serious. Bernie sanders is as you sid ahead in said. Ahead in iowa. That poll that showed her down 8 points there was another poll showing her up nine points. Caucus polls are harder to read. Bernie sanders is running a conventional campaign because he wants to be president at this point at there very minute thats what he has to do. People at the end see this as a race of yes we can. Bernie sanders idealism and Hillary Clintons no we cant, pragmatism. Is that dangerous when you are talking about caucuses and what the energy you need . We hear it as no we cant and no we wont be able to do it but what Hillary Clinton and the clinton people are trying to paint is electability. Whether she is there she ask do things that the other guy cant. Even though we love this other guy she is the person who is electable. When it comes to november when it comes to being out on the trail, theres a practicality that theyre after and yes it has its drawbacks in a primary and it is the right way for hillary in some circles to be going after sanders. But idealism is also the thing that attracts people to a lot of these candidates. So this idealism is no different than with the republicans. Theres an idealism with Bernie Sanders that you have to tiptoe around if you are Hillary Clinton. Couple of things i dont want to tiptoe in. I twoontd ask you want to ask f questions i asked jeannie zano. What kind of block would the Michael Bloomberg have on the democratic side . I think on the democratic side here is one of the fears that the democrats will have about Michael Bloomberg. The state of new york, new york is a taken for granted electoral prize that the democrats would have to rearrange their chess game around if that is what they were looking at. Because Michael Bloomberg has the capability of winning in new york and that would be a terrible thing for democrats. A lot of people arent talking about it now. What bloomberg has the ability to do is energize independents or dispassionate democrats going after someone a little different than washington, he would be the donald trump for the democrats. Going against establishment selffunded, the same things appealing to democrats about donald trump would appeal to democrats. In Michael Bloomberg. I want to lay the trap for you, we know what jeannie zano stands on the republican race, how confident are you about the outcome a week from tonight on the democratic side in iowa . How confident am i . I dont think biden is going to run. I dont think omalleys going to win. Here is what i do think. I think david because of the organization that Hillary Clinton has in iowa and i hate to say this to bernie people who are so passionate and so involved. I think Hillary Clinton is actually going to do very well in iowa and i if were going to have to make one of these bold predictions im going to say shell win iowa by double digits. Double digits. Are you willing to back that up with jeannie zano insurance of public humiliation, you come on and say im going to sing an apology to David Schuster and jeannie zano. By double digits i have to do that . Do i have to apologize to jeannie too . I guess ill do it. Expheur michaemichael shure, Hillary Clinton by double digits. If she doesnt does win by double digits we will have an apology we post for you. By the way, michael will be in iowa on caucus night, monday february 1st. Coming up politics and protest. We will take you to the streets of a democratic country, for many people who believe the voting is rigged. Ftc inside story takes you beyond the headlines, beyond the quick cuts, beyond the soundbites. Were giving you a deeper dive into the stories that are making our world what it is. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Americas 2016 president ial campaign is coming with a lot of surprises even at this early stage but the surprises appea pale in comparison. In haiti, unrest is growing in portauprince, demonstrators have taken to the streets and clash with police, mi shelton martelly, protesters have called for him to step down. Any time haitian authorities try to schedule another round of elections street protesters cause them to postpone it. David ariosto went to one. Suffer protest to investigate. Ne such protest to investigate. In the capital city of one of the poorest countries in the southern hemisphere, this is a usual day. This is really emblematic of part of the problem in haiti. You have Security Police force he crouching behind this wall, rocks are coming in, and a water cannon and all this trying to develop some sort of semblance of civil conduct in this country. President ial and legislative elections since then demonstrations have become a weekly sometimes daily occurrence so last month our team headed to one such march in portauprince. Today is all about free power, eight president ial candidates in portauprince have basically brought their groups into the streets to express their dissatisfaction over no run off. Holding signs and saying, the hand picked candidate is somebody that doesnt represent this country. The elections were scheduled for december 27th. But were postponed amid mounting pressure from street protests over alleged corruption. President michel martelly, not enough to placate the haitian street. I think theres a lot of anger and pent up aggression. Most clearly evidenced by the fact that 70 didnt vote in the president ial election. You have anger and perception that this process is not fair and haitian people are not able to choose their leaders. Organization of american states which monitors elections larkllargely certified the first round results. But some say the process is far from fair saying that the International Community is partly to blame. The haitian economic elite is not only subservient to foreign interests, it is also blind. They think that because theyre leaving the penthouse, having neglected the foundation of the building , that it wont crumble. Often coined the republic of ngos, haiti hosts some 10,000 nongovernment organizations which provide everything from water sanitation to housing approximately foreign efforts particularly security efforts have a history of heavy handed tactics that at times prompt backlash. In december 2014 u. N. Peace keepers clashed with protestors as they marched towards the president ial palace demanding new leadership. Demonstrators wurnd tires and threw rocks but the u. N. Response seen here drew widespread condemnation after its sold engineers opened fire on the crowd. The u. N. Is very strict, pledging to hold its soldiers accountable after, quote, inappropriate use of their weapons. But accountability is something many residents say is missing. But from foreign powers and their own leaders as haiti enters its last round of president ial elections which has only added to frustration he and a sense of even more disenfranchisement here in the western hemispheres poorest population. David ariosto joins us. How much of that is playing into the frustration that people have . Right after the earthquake the devastation was so extensive i. T. Was hard to get a handle on exactly what was to be done. 13 billion was pledged for the haitian relief effort to this day, you still see chaos on the streets. You still see people earning 68 a month. So theres a sense that this burgeoning hope that existed right after the earthquake when haiti could change never materialized and haitis leaders are beholden to the International Community. Thats when you have the organization of american states certifying this election, the large portion of the population says, you know what . You dont have our best interests at heart. Simply their leaders dont represent them and street protests have historically been the way to keep elections in place. How much is related to perceptions real or imagined about public corruption of all that earthquake money . I think thats the fundamental money. All sorts of objection has been to michel martelly, who has been in office all that time. You look at haiti and you look at what could have been done, and you look at what the reality is now, with people still earning essentially the lowest amount that anyone in the region earns, sand you know theres just this frustration that no matter what they do they cant get people in place that represent them. And how does this play out . Whats the solution. Good question, sort of the chicken and the egg type situation. For a long period of time, haiti relied on International Donors and the International Red cross. What that has done is undermine civil society. If you have an ambition you might look to the International Community instead of building the civic soatz that haiti really needs as a country. David ariosto, thank you for bringing it to us. We appreciate it. And that is our show for today. Im David Schuster in for ali velshi. Thanks for joining us. Have a good night, everybody. Were here to fully get into the nuances of everything thats going on, not just in this country, but around the world. Getting the news from the people who are affected. People need to demand reform. Ali velshi on target. [ ] American Parents are moving away from shame, scorn and cutting ties with children who consider themselves different from their birth gender. That doesnt mean all the challenges that go along with changing from the gender on a birth certificate disappear. A lot of adjustment is required to see gender identity less as a binary this or that idea. But for some, as a journey. Its tonights inside story. Welcome to inside story. Im ray suarez. The idea that a persons gerpd is fixed ot birth gender is fixed at birth, defined on the h