Sectarian life could pull a ro rock iraq apart. Kurds have lived semi semi autoously in northern iraq. Now with the upheaval in iraq the kurds share a 600mile border with the new islamic state. Forces are fighting the sunni insurgents and pulling away from baghdad economically and politically. The time has come for us to determine our own fate. We must not wait for others to determine it with us. President of the semi autonomous kurdish region of northern iraq. They live upon some of the richest oil fields in all of iraq. As the government in baghdad fractures in sectarian divisions the kurdish pull away in states that they can take care of. They threatened off advances of isil and declared their own islamic state. The fighting has made the question of borders and security even more important to the kurds who see the baghdad government and Nouri Almaliki as opposite of their goals. It will hurt you and it will take the region in a maze that you cannot exit. Secondly, you already decided to be part of a democratic and ferrell iraq. You have your own federal region. There is not an article in our constitution allowing self determination. Maliki has gone further in his harsh rhetoric against the kurds saying that it is now home to the terrorists, to say the least this is not helping a possible political solution to the crisis in iraq. In the past few weeks kurds have boycotted the iraqi parliament. There was a glimmer of hope with the selection of a new speaker a sunni. Now parliament has 30 days to elect the new president and by tradition that post goes to a curd. 15 days after that a new government can be formed and a new Prime Minister could be selected. So the kurds and their politicians are in an awkward position. Theyre vital to any longterm political solution to save iraq if they have a strong desire for independence. It cant be both. And if the path to Independence Oil and oil money are key. The kurdish region of iraq has the ninth Largest Oil Reserves in the world. Under the iraqi constitution the kurdish government is supposed to get 17. 5 of the oil revenues but the al maliki government has been cutting off that money. Well be selfsufficient in terms of money. Bad magazine baghdad made the wrong decision. They have miscalculated that. The will of Kurdish People will fight back and we will live, and we will match that expectation we have. We will be free with our own revenue as supposed to be under the thumb of big taters in baghdad. The Kurdish Forces ban when they moved in control the Important Oil city of kirkuk. And just in the past two days they captured two facilities outside of kirkuk. The kurds believe they have the right to sell the oil and have cuts deals with exxonmobil. They began exporting the oil through turkey. Exports were up 50 in the last month. Iraqi kurdistan has long known relative peace. Its citizens with a myriad different face, languages and cultures live and Work Together under an effective government called the Kurdistan Regional government, krg. But they have known little self governing power as promises of independence never materialized. The colonial powers left iraq, turkey, iran and syria. We the Kurdish People demand the establishment of an independent kurdish country. We have prepared to sacrifice ourselves for our country. Reporter now president barzoni said he no longer feels bound to the iraqi constitution. Rather theyre preparing an independent referendum, the bo boldest push for statehood in 100 years. Security, sovereignty or oil wealth or the potential of it and larger regional concerns are all concerns for the kurds push for independence. Joining our discussion from washington,. , our guests. Welcome to you all. How does the semi autonomous government function . What power does president barzoni have. Its a pleasure to be back here. So the current autonomous region, this would be in addition to what authorities exist have. This would mean conducting their own affairs with great authority. Insert what the picture looks like right now. Semi autonomous is not something that were familiar with in the u. S. What practical power does it have . It would remain part of iraq. However, with greater autonomy. Right now it is tied to baghdad to the Central Government with more authority were baghdad, though thats not what the constitution calls for. But with some autonomy the kurds would gain more authority over their own affairs. What does that mean . It includes selling oil without the consent of the federal government. But still sharing some of these revenues with baghdad. Conducting other affairs such as maintaining its defense forces. Such as keeping and main tag its finances. And conducting more Diplomatic Missions abroad. Alec, a Central Government has contributed to the kurds ability to gain ground, literally, as well as politically. How much is the fractured government affecting the kurdish cause . Its not really an issue of a fractured government in baghdad. Its the fact that it has not really respected iraqs constitution. Prime minister maliki has not, for example, implemented article 140 of the constitution, which calls for the resolution of the disputed internal boundaries areas that are both mixed. He has used iraqs great oil wealth as an economic weapon as Saddam Hussein did previously. For example, over the past several months he has cut off the kurds share of iraqs revenues, and instituted a form of economic sanctions domestically. So all of these things, as mentioned in your lead up piece, all of these things have created a backlash which are now haunting baghdad. Thats not to speak what al maliki has done with the sunni arabs as well, which has helped to inflame the situation and led to this existential crisis in baghdad. How encouraged are you about the election of the speaker , the sunni speaker. The fact that there is a sunni speaker is one small part of it. You first have a fractured Sunni Community in and of itself. How far maliki can actually do and really incorporate sunni communities into really power share something a part of it. But the curd as potential president , in and of itself is contentious among the kurdish communities. Who would that be . Some people are calling for puk leaders. Does that mean that they lead the kurdistan region and what influence would they have as president. The current president was more than a symbolic leader even though that we know that the role of president in iraq is symbolic. The issue is much deeper. It goes into what role do the sunnies have, how much will the kurds give back and be willing to set some type of federal structure after theyve gotten so far. Would the presidency mean much . Is that just a ceremonial post or would having a kurd in that position make a difference. The position does have authority, but unfortunately weve seen this authority stripped away from the president s office during the past administration under the leadership of Prime Minister maliki. Just today to strip out the commander of chief and perhaps give it to the president or create another entity within the government so that whoever comes through power and premiereship does not violate or move the country in a direction that is too powerful where all of the Decision Making is made through the Prime Ministers office. So it can if there is willingness to reconcile and willingness to share power in the Prime Ministers office. How is isil fighting shaped the krgs moves and choices . How significant is what is happening on the grouped effecting the krg . I spoke with a Senior Member of the kurdish cabinet just a short time ago. Frankly, theyre quite concerned. According to this very senior official. Car kurdistan now has a board are sunni ratio iraq and 13 kilometers with malikis shia arab iraq, frankly. Theyre concerned that as more time passes, correctly, more sunni arabs will integrate into isis and will be radicalized. Ed a we see iran and its revolutionary guards move to reinforce Prime Minister, the increased training, arming and funding of the shia militias then that will create further sunni backlash. Well take a short break. Prime minister al maliki is against a breaking away of car kurdistan. 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Download it now welcome back to inside story. Im libby casey. With iraq in crisis the kurds in the north are in the middle of the fight with isil insurgents and they are key to a possible political solution. Heres the problem,s you cannot bring iraq together and at the same time call for indian. Lets jump right back in the conversation. Denise, is it possible to have a stable iraq if the kurds pull out . If they truly form their own autonomous state, can iraq survive . Even can the kurds part of iraq its still unstable. What would be the implications, first financially, this is not a big strain on the Iraqi Government because theyre paying out last year was 13 billion. Thats a lot of money, 17 whether even 11 . Its not going to be a financial loss. The bigger issue are borders. In my view if depends on the process and the manner of which the kurds would declare themselves independent. What does that look like . Did s that three provinces or kirkuk and parts of mosul. If it includes the last two, unilaterally youll have conflicts. For iraq, it means for the kurds it means greater influstration, destabilizing a very unstable region and risking investment. So the iraqis right now in these regions they have very little to leave. I think whose got a lot more to loose in terms of stability would be the kurdistan region. What would that kurdistan look like . Is it secular . Well, the new result after the fall mosul, it would consist of the rep researc referendum would be part of kirkuk. There would be a second referendum to be carried out and the other three provinces. If the public decides this is where they want to go, now what will kurdistan . What would iraq look like . I think iraq would be fine. When you take an equation with three variables you have a more complex equation. But when you take one variable away its easier to solve the problem. Iraq consist with the kurds and arabs. In decision to that you have the sunni and shiite. If you take county attorney away the kurdish ethnic part you sound like you disagree with that. I do disagree, its not entirelythe points are well taken, but weve got 80 years of iraqi history that did not get swept under the barrel. This is not just about sunny and shiite. There is a kurd dynamic to this as well. There are nonkurdish who are in kirkuk. The idea of the kurds just shifting away is not just the al maliki issue. There is the kurdish nationalism, and arab nationalism. And then there are these oil fields. I see this again as not a very clean velvet revolution of people going their separate ways in a nice divorce, but a messy one depending on again how the process falls out. But i dont see it being a clean sweep. Well dig in to the money picture a little later. I want to get a sense for you what an independent region mean to turkey, syria and iran . What weve seen over the past 20 years is that kurds tend to be secular, pro american and pro western. I think its an important empirical point to point out. Of all those wounded, not a single wounded was from kurdistan, they were all from arab iraq. There has been a profound historic impact because obviously the kurds are a minority in iraq and syria and turkey and iran. And the nation has never had a state of its own. Its because to these are historic developments that weve witnessed over the past several years in terms of the no fly zone instituted in 1991 and the development since. Frankly these are unprecedented. And theyre in uncharted territory here in having watched the region for so long, having been involved in the region in iraq specifically, do you see the semi autonomous region of kurdistan being at a particular Pivotal Moment right now . Are things significantly different right now . Very much so. Because again as i pointed out were in uncharted certificate tore. For example, the kurds have enjoyed autonomy since nofly zone was instituted in the first gulf war. Then the two factions of the democratic part and then the vicious civil war in the 199 the 0s, much more vicious than what some of the arabs have done to the kurds including the assassination of top leaders on both sides. And then instead of fighting over the crumbs they decided to grow the pie and then divide the spoils between them, which was very smart. In terms of what happens from here, a lot of it depends on whether the kurdish leadership is able to maintain leadership within kurdistan, there are issues with that, and then more importantly what the regional actors do. Iran, the most powerful player in iraq decides to do, and obviously turkey is kurdistans own viable export route. Well take a short break. When we come back well talk more about policy. Its a major point of contention. Al jazeeras Investigative Unit has tonights exclusive report. Stories that have impact. That make a difference. That open your world. This is what we do. America tonight next only on Al Jazeera America r real reporting from around the world. This is what we do. Al jazeera america. Welcome back to inside story. Im libby casey. On this edition of our program were looking at the crisis in iraq by understanding what is happening in iraqi kurdistan. Weve been discussion their aspirations for autonomy, and now we want to turn to money. Specifically oil money. The kurds are supposed to get 17 of iraqs oil revenues. Any chance of that happening, and if it did would that alleviate some of the tensions. The constitution says 17 and then deductions, and its been between 11 to 13 . I think this is more than ref into us and how much theyre getting. If you look at the whole, 13 and 15 billion is a lot of money. There was a great deal offered. There is about having greater control over the oil that gets exported. I think at this point there is going to be an demand for greater control of those exports as well. This is where some of the issues are. The problem for me, and i dont want to overly roman at this size. The math does not add up here. Right now 95 of the kurds budget comes from baghdad, and there is not an easy replacement right now. Its going to be a very important backlash on the people when you dont have the replacement to 13 billion to 14 billion, and there are kurds who are worried about being stuck as a vassel state for turkey. The folks here in washington for the kurdistan state in washington, what would it take to be financially independent . Were working our way towards achieving that goal. 17 has never been delivered to the Kurdistan Regional government. Lets make sure that were clear on that ever since the iraqi institution was ratified in 2005. Not only that, but since december of 2013 the budget has been completely cut off from the kurdistan region by the federal government in baghdad. What would make up for the 17 . We predict the 45 to 500 barrels of oil exported, the leadership has is saying why are we still part of a region that puts a mug on us, tries to make threats when we export oil on a right that was given to us by the iraqi constitution. Alec, you negotiated exxonmobil entry into iraqi kurdistan. Do the kurds have enough resources to be economically independent . Lets today taking kirkuk out of the picture. The short answer is they do under the ground. Kurdistan has between 20 to 50 Million Barrels of natural gas. Youre talking about libyasized reserves, more or less. Just a significantly, frankly, its parked right next to n. A. T. O. And g20 turkey which is one of the largest economies in the world, which is going quickly and very importantly does not have resources of its own. Right now its reliant on Russias Vladimir Putin and shia iran. Thats why i believe a strategic agreement is inevitable. Because one country desperately needs those resources, and another entity desperately wants to export its resources for purposes of economic. Selselfsufficiency. It would not be reliant on baghdad for revenues and weve seen over the furthers that baghdad has used money as a form ofas a political weapon in an attempt to stall the curbs when ba baghdad is not happy with its present position. What does it mean for outside countries like the United States as we watch the kurds work towards independence. Looking at the oil we should go deeper than saying this is a matter of being oppressed by the kurds. There are some serious legal and political issues that remain. Anyone who is interested in getting this oil out, and i think we probably all are here, having it be conducted through the Legal Mechanism so there are not boats stuck at sea because there is litigation with anchor, and despite these disagreements, encouraging the kurds to negotiate with baghdad would the best solution. 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