Context of maximum employment. Given the highly uncertain nature of the outlook, one might ask, why not hold off raising the federal funds rate until the economy has reached full employment and inflation is actually back at 2 . The difficulty with this strategy is that Monetary Policy affects real activity and inflation with a substantial lag. Were to delay the start of the policy normalization process for too long, we would likely in that having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. And an abrupt tightening perhaps inadvertently pushing the economy into recession. In addition, continuing to hold shortterm Interest Rates near zero will after real activity has returned to normal and headwinds of faded could encourage excessive leverage in other forms of inappropriate risk taking that might undermine financial stability. For these reasons, the more prudent strategy is to begin tightening in a timely fashion and at a gradual pace, adjusting policy as needed in light of incoming data. Emphasizelude, let me that following the dual mandate established by congress, the toeral reserve is committed the achievement of maximum employment and price stability. To this end we have maintained a highly accommodative Monetary Policy since the financial crisis. The policy has fostered marked improvement with Market Conditions and helped check undesirable disinflationary pressures. However, we have not yet fully attained our objectives under the dual mandate. Some slack in labor markets thisns, and the effects of some the influence slack remains in labor markets and the effect of this slack and the influence of lower energy pass dollar appreciation have been significant factors keeping inflation below our goal. But i expect that inflation will return and the influence of Lower Energy Prices and inflation below our goal. I expect this to occur as a temporary of factors that are currently waiting on inflation wane, provided that Economic Growth continues to be strong ofugh to complete the return. He economy to full employment to return to full employment. Participants including myself, we currently anticipate that achieving these conditions will likely intel inch lines in the federal followed by gradual pace of tightening thereafter. Us if the economy surprises excuse me. I judgments about appropriate Monetary Policy will of course change. Let me stop there. Thank you. [applause] that was fed chair janet yellen wrapping up her speech at amherst. With us is the chief u. S. Economist. What happened in the last five minutes as she was giving her concluding paragraph . Its a month she was struggling. She gave the speech according to the text that was released but she struggled at the end. I dont know. At first it seemed like she lost her place, but it seemed to deteriorate from there. She is still out there right she seems to be really sure and the crowd that she is ok. They came out to her soon after she ended the speech, but it was startling. Grexit definitely looked like she was having issues. It definitely looked like she was having issues. The speechontent of in particular, what really stood out for you . What stood out to me was that in the press conference she said we dont want to say who is who and she clearly said it was a very theoretical academic. What does that mean Going Forward . It mean she is not seeing such a head went into the economy that shes willing to delay until next year although she certainly amenable to the possibility of things deteriorate further. One of the key lines from the speech that my colleague in amherst lacked was when she said we do not currently it is paid that the effects of these recent developments internationally on the u. S. Economy will prove to be large enough to have a the pathnt effect on for policy. They are waiting to see what happens with some of this stuff and its sort of up to everyone to watch and see what happens there because the fomc is watching with all of us. So we are still all just watching the financial markets, watching the global situation. Nothing clearly has changed. Does acknowledge that she is in the hike for year end cant be we should note that futures have reopened, basically doing nothing, essentially flat. She didnt want to have a big impact on markets. She certainly succeeded in that. She has left the stage where she has completed her speech. The next two meetings are october 28 and december 16. We will wait to see if the fed has enough data to move been. Thanks to our viewers and listeners worldwide for watching the special report on fed chair janet yellen speech tonight at the university of massachusetts amherst. We joined charlie rose in process. One cannot explain it. For a youngering cardinal after Pope Benedict. They were looking for a manager, someone who can sort out vatican problems and the finances and bureaucracy who had a managerial style. They were looking for someone with exactly the opposite qualities. A pastor. Hey got he has changed the church in a very different way than we all had land. I believe this is a man that has great service. He is absolutely astute and he knows exactly what is going on. Charlie and does he appreciate and want to utilize his power . Yes. He said something today which i think was very interesting to the bishops. He said power should not be linked with authority, in that sense, but it is the power of weakness that eventually will win the world. It is his own weakness that speaks to us. What he is saying is that we will attract people, we will attract the world and others by going to the poor, by going to the immigrant, through works of charity and mercy. Perhaps in the past weve had cardinals and bishops, they have been worried about frills. This is a nofrills pope. He is a son of immigrants. Everything he has experience in his own life, thats one he has so much compassion. Allen, explain to us the charisma that he has. Ive been up close to couple of people with charisma. Nelson mandela for one. You felt it when he entered the room. Francis comes along and you feel warm. Its not like wow, i enveloped by the spirit. Communicates how to with people, how to look at people without them feeling that he is anything other than what he is. Which leads me to the way he uses his power. Hes got himself the biggest pool but you can imagine, but he doesnt preach. He talks the talk and walks the walk. In that interview we were talking about earlier, he says i am a sinner. Coming right back to the weakness that is made strong through the grace of god that the monsignor was talking about. Later in the same interview he reveals his favorite image of the church is of a Field Hospital after a battle. When you put those together what you see is a man who sees himself first and foremost as a patient in the Field Hospital along with the rest of us. Someone who needs the grace of god to be and do in the world. That gives him an authenticity of credibility that is unrivaled among public figures in the world today. Credibility is the currency of politics. Charlie who is around him . You come from rome and you know the crowd that surrounds him and the people he depends on and the people who make shape him in terms of how he proceeds and what he believes. Is an interesting question and i dont really know the answer. He has several people he relies on that we dont even know about. It is said he goes over and talks to an addict from time to time. Benedict andto talks to him from time to time. He wants to know what you think the answer is. He will ask two or three other people the same question in a different way, and then he puts it all together. Whoink he relies on people think like him a bit. He certainly has a lot of spanish speakers around him and he is comfortable with his own kind, if you will, and maybe a little distrustful of the italians. I he gets smart people around him, listens to them, and then makes up his own mind. What does he say about what he wants to accomplish in this visit . Allen its fairly obvious what his agenda is. Things that are on his agenda that matter to him, climate change, refugees, savage capitalism, that sort of thing. This is the place. He is willing to step into the belly of the beast. He has a Kindred Spirit in president obama in some ways. You look at the speech, he talked about being an immigrant in the first instance. Then he moves into the next item, kind of a republican thing. He goes right down the middle. He can talk about any of the issues he cares about and not make them political. They are political issues, but he doesnt make them political. I think his agenda is to push the things that matter to him to the forefront, and its perfect timing. The visit was already planned to go to the world family day. It coincides with the big meeting at the u. N. , somebody will have all those heads of state. He can use that to say, the paris summit on climate, use that to push his agenda. All of america im sure loves pope francis. If you go against this man, is at your peril, no matter whats proper politician you are. He knows that and hes using it very well. He is very astute. Its interesting, because he has the ordinary people on his side. The troops are with him. That is exactly what allen was saying. And he is willing to use it. Something i find fascinating, talking about this holy father. We had Pope John Paul ii who was a great figure who opened his heart in many ways, traveling the world as a superstar. Benedict hoped Pope Benedict who failed filled peoples hearts with doctrine. Charlie he seems to want to change the emphasis of the conversation. Absolutely. Saying dont spend all her time on these divisive issues when there are other items on the agenda. Giving him a softer edge. When he was eking to the bishops this morning in washington, he said is very important that you stand up for what the church believes about life, about economics, about the environment. Modus operandi has to be in counter, not confrontation. Its not about being a cultural warrior, its about being an evangelist. And the goal here is dialogue. Dialogue to what purpose . Interestingly enough, dialogue for the purpose of dialogue, in the beginning. Just understanding of each other. You have to know the who before you get to the what. Pope who puts in motion processes, but he doesnt necessarily have an end in mind. That is the little unsettling for some folks. There isnt a corporation in the United States that would hire a ceo who says i dont have a plan, im just going to start a conversation. [laughter] so he is going to set sail and catch the wind. That is exactly what hes going to do. It is his authority as the successor of peter that safeguards the conversation. , say said to the bishops whatever you feel. Lets have an open conversation. Lets have a dialogue. He is not afraid. Charlie heres what i dont understand. Is notion of what exactly doctrine, and how do you change doctrine . This is a big debate within the church. Many sustain that theres a difference between tradition and doctrine. Its a nearly 2000 year institution. Many practices have simply been done for centuries and have acquired a kind of solidity of doctrine, even though in fact they are historical products. The church holds that the idea of priest celibacy was not really firmly pronounced until the middle ages and violated for much of the churchs history and thats become an issue that has been determined be decided doctrinally. You talk to,who certain things are traditions and certain things are doctrine. Everyone teaches that doctrine cannot be changed. If you say actually is evolved over time, certain things that were held to be doctrine, like believing in limbo, have disappeared from church teachings. Things change with time. There are people that very much resist that the church is a historic institution that has changed over time and insist on an unchanging truth. Likethere are people who say that to be perfect is to change often. I would say this pope is more in that change often camp. That is a very tricky issue which could be quite explosive. That plays out. Charlie who opposes this pope, allen . Allen surprisingly, quite a few. Eople inside the roman curia others think he has gone well , liket Church Doctrine Cardinal Burke who he very quickly sidelined. Theres a camp of hardliners that dont want the kind of changes the popes making. They dont like the direction they think he is taking the church. Dont follow say i the church doesnt follow me, i follow the church. I talked to Cardinal Newman and hes set the opposition is here. Small but strong. Then he laughed and said, but they will lose. [laughter] i think that is true. He is getting where he wants to go. Year when there was all that stuff about gays and divorced people and so on. The hardliners on that, the ones who went against where we think francis wants to go, slowly he shunts them aside. These come in with a scalpel and hes just trimming away the fat. Thats basically what he is doing to the curia. I agree. He has spent so many years among the people as a pastor. One of the things you have to learn as a pastor is to be with messiness. He is comfortable with the messiness of life, primarily because he has a deeply held faith in christ and in his church. It was an interesting thing, when they released his first communique and it had kind of a different tone around gay and lesbian people, making sure we welcome them without changing the teaching about marriage between a man and a woman. People really panicked over this. Sense thatave the this was going to lead to the downfall of the church, judging by their reactions. Empire, we the roman can probably survive a bad press release, right . Inhas this great faith christ and in his church that the holy spirit is guiding us even now, in this moment of history. Things can get a little messy. We can have this conversation. We can be opened. There can be a dialogue, and we dont have to be afraid. Charlie tell me what the schedule is for the rest of his visit to america. He will address the joint meeting of congress tomorrow. Then we move on to new york. Hes exactly you in, he goes to ground zero and does a few other pastoral things and then its on to philadelphia for the last two days of world family day. The final event will be a huge mass. They are expecting 1. 5 Million People. That takes place on sunday, and then overnight back to rome, charlie. Charlie thank you so much, good to see you. Back in a moment. Stay with us. Charlie ray kelly is here. He occupied 25 different commands and serving twice as commissioner. Into ad was revamped relentless counterterrorism and intelligence force and took a controversial approach to reducing street crime. The citys murder rate was the lowest since the 1960s by the time he retired in 2013. He recounts his experiences in a new memoir. Im pleased to have ray kelly back at this table. Welcome. Ray good to be back with you, charlie. Charlie talk to me about the great crisis between police and communities in some major american cities. Ray there is no question about it, the shootings we saw, the aransas shooting in north alston south carolina, where walter scott was stunned down by a Police Officer, shot in the back, the world saw that video. The incident in ferguson and some other high profile events, eric garner here in new york, of theised the specter schism between police and some members of the community. Usually communities of color. From my Vantage Point of being in the police department, being in Law Enforcement almost 50 years, generally speaking, relations between minority communities and the police are better than they have been in many years. These types of things, that sets it back, no doubt about it. Thats kind of where we are now. Theas caused hesitancy on part of police to engage where they have engaged in the past. Thats one of the reasons youre seeing an increase in murders. About 30 cities in the u. S. Are experiencing murder increases. That sort of where we are right now. Some of the people in urban communities say this is nothing new. Its just now getting attention is a lot more focus on it. There is a capacitive people to take pictures so you can see what has happened. You are absolutely right. In my mind, these are aberrations. Ive been in Law Enforcement like i said for almost 50 years. In my history, ive seen Police Officers doing her road, good work, certainly changing the nature of this city. Two decades ago we had big problems here. New york is now the safest big city in america. I dont think anyone who is worried about it believes there are not really a majority of policeman and police women who are conscientious, doing the best they can under difficult circumstances. That is an undeniable fact. Its not that everybody who wears blue is in conflict with whatever community there is. You understand that, but at the same time, you wonder what it is that makes those who are the way they are. Is it lack of training, lack of sensitivity . Is it not simply being of the right temperament to be a Police Officer . Ray it is complex. Some are just bad decisions made quickly. Some of it has to do with selection. Professionnk as a that we do a good enough job in selecting people to become Police Officers. We dont even require a College Degree. Requirea college a College Degree for virtually every teacher in america. I think we should up the standards in that regard. Orhink we should drill down effectively on psychological testing. Lets look at bullying, for example. What is the effect of having been bullied are being a bully and as it comes to being a Police Officer . We need much more work in that regard. You dont want to hire your problems. Charlie and its certainly true that you see it in cities that are run by men and women of color have some of the same kind of problems. Ray there is no guarantee. Even if youre coming from a minority community, there that you will be able to avoid the kind of conflicts that exist in the rankandfile. Ray absolutely. Charlie so what is the solution, training . There comes a point in time when you have to put the cops on the street. I recommend raising the moretutional level, comprehensive examination as far as psychological standards are concerned. I think cameras will make a difference. I was initially against Police Officers wearing cameras, but everybody over 10 years of age has a camera. At that shooting in north trolls, south carolina, you have to think that no rational Police Officer wearing a camera would engage in conduct like that. Police officers, Police Departments should embrace it. It is expensive and difficult to , the memory requirement is large. Who has access to it, all of these things have to be worked out. But i know that we will see a thanore good, heroic work the aberrations and Inappropriate Conduct that we have seen. As it is adopted, it will take years to do this, but that will go a long way in increasing community trust. Charlie when you look back at your term, most recently as commissioner, would you do anything different . Come to different conclusions, having time to reflect on what happened during your tenure . Really, not the big decisions. I pretty much would do everything as you said before, when the bloomberg ended, we had record low murders, reckon record low shootings. Years or 11. 5 12 years when the poll was taken. Charlie do you think policeman in new york city are operating under a different understanding of where and how they should perform their job . Thatsome of the signals have been given to Police Officers in new york city are signals that say hesitate, hold back, that sort of thing. We had the stop, question, and frisk lawsuit in the city that ultimately resulted in a monitor. We had an Inspector General that was put in place by the city there areven though almost 1000 officers doing internal investigations. There are two u. S. Attorneys in new york city. Theres a Mayors Commission to combat police corruption. The signals have been to hold back, and i think ultimately t will result in charlie cleaning your hesitant to make an arrest . You are hesitant to do what . Ray hesitant to engage. Topay Police Officers intervene in suspicious conduct. That is what we want them to do. This goes back to common law, the whole stop, question, and is codified throughout the country. The numbers that Police Officers are at least recording now in new york city are way below what you would think is appropriate for a city of 8. 4 Million People , and a city that has about 20 million hours of patrol time on the part of its police forced. In the city that gets hundreds of thousands of calls about suspicious conduct every year. 40,000, and that is way too low. That is a manifestation of holding back and not engaging. Charlie you level to criticism at the mayor, not at the Police Commissioner. Ray the number one Law Enforcement person in any community is the mayor. Thats where the direction comes from, thats where the tone comes from. To assume that the Police Commissioner is responding to either direct or indirect directions from the mayor. Charlie you said you immediately regretted watching the mayors inauguration on youtube. Mike bloomberg, by any objective standards, did a terrific job. Comes in 3. 5 months after 9 11. Crime was going to go up, the city was going to go to hell in a handbasket. Was he showed no class at all. Ive never seen that happen. Charlie not by the mayor, but by someone else. That his staff knew what people were going to say. Shots andit was cheap showing no class at all. Charlie what do you think the mindset of the mayor is . Ray hard to figure out. The mayor is progressive, he says that all the time. I think he is an ideologue. Moved to the center to manage the city. He is focused on national politics. He has made trips to various places and espouses a progressive movement. Hes goingople think to focus on the daytoday workings of the city. Charlie you can also argue that might bloomberg was progressive on many issues also. Ray he held his commissioners accountable. Had meetings where he drilled down and got realtime information. Im not certain thats a case with mayor de blasio. Charlie tell me what happens when you had the action with the former tennis pro james blake, when he was tackled. Evidently some mistaken identity or something. How does that happen . Realizing it was not under your jurisdiction, it was after you left the office, very recently. What ought to be the approach after Something Like that happen . Ray we dont know what was in the officers had. We dont know what information he had. If you just look at the video, it looks like Inappropriate Conduct. There,ould have happened since its a credit card fraud case charlie he was misidentified. Ray they thought he was the perpetrator. You identify yourself as a Police Officer and say, can i talk to you for a second . You have one or two other officers with you. I know there was a team that was i think close by. They were engaged apparently with something else. But you would normally arrest somebody by yourself and tackled them. Given the nature of the crime. Again, i dont know what the officer knew. Was there a possibility of being armed . Video, itng at the does not look like appropriate behavior by any means. Charlie so the officer should obviously be given due process. Ray there is a comprehensive, pretty significant sick sophisticated process. You go through the process. Have established a clear process for dealing with issues like this. Ray the union certainly plays a role but the system ultimately makes a recommendation to the Police Commissioner. The Police Commission makes a final determination as far as discipline. The police out of line to insult the mayor by turning their back on him . Ray yes. It was a very emotional time. You had two Police Officers who were assassinated, they were and didnt have a chance. Given some things the mayor said, his comments after the eric garner grand jury decision, those sorts of inks that added to the emotion. But i think it was inappropriate. When you think about terrorism, you had offices around the world whenever theres a terrorist incident, they would go. We have talked about that on this program before. Is it getting more difficult now because of all the online at pivot he, because of so many other factors . Because so many people find themselves for whatever reason attracted to sort of the opportunity to join something larger than themselves and show some sense of bad judgment . Ray the threat certainly has not diminished. The threat from terrorism. This city is still seen by the Intelligence Community as the number one target in this country. You see isis inspired events and onple, 90,000 tweets a day the internet. Very difficult for the intelligence world to get their arms around that sort of activity. And we see this phenomenon of these young, disaffected young men being radicalized on the internet and then deciding to kill people in their own country. But inens not only here lots of other places as well. We are going to be fighting this fight, in my judgment, for a long time to come. There are no easy answers. Isis is a movement, on the ground in certain places. Charlie we cannot kill our way out of it, we have to find a way to have better intelligence to find out what is going on. Ray in minneapolis there have been efforts to take individuals who were actually arrested for deciding to go to somalia and fight, to somehow put them back on the right track. Who knows if thats going to work . Im skeptical about it, but its worth a shot. Charlie Vladimir Putin said about the threat of isis, even as a russian leader, was returning fighters. People who had russian or other passports and learn how to engage in certain kinds of terror activities, and then with a russian passport, returned. That was what bothered him most. That shouldely, and bother us here. Were doing a much better job of tracking people who go and then come back. They usually take a circuitous route. You dont just go to syria, you go to other countries. This is a concern throughout the developed world. People who go and then come back. You assume they are coming back with tradecraft, to conduct terrorist acts, even if they dont use it. The knowledge is still in their head. O its a real problem i think he is wise to say that. Have you changed your mind at all about stop and frisk . Ray no. It has to be done with professionalism. Charlie is it done with professionalism, you have to ask the question. Ray the decision was not based on the evidence in that case. If you look at the stop levels throughout the country, new york was certainly not number one. Philadelphia, chicago, baltimore, los angeles, all had higher stop rates. It is a practice that Police Officers need to do. As i said before, you want them to intervene in suspicious activity. I think it is a deterrent. You see a rise in shooting in the cities and part of it is the fact that it is now known that the police will not be as proactive as they have been in the past. Ofparticularly in the area stopping and questioning. Every stock does not result in a frisk or pat down. It is a pejorative term, no question about it. I talk about that in the book. Nobody wants to be stopped and frisk, we can understand that. But if you go out to grassroots minority communities, they are it. Ng for theres a sense that it has been diminished and they wanted to come back in terms of volume. What is the role of police in areas like homelessness . Ray we have to look at a multiagency approach. The police also have a responsibility to maintain public order. In the bloomberg administration, we had a proactive again, my favorite word. We would take them, offer them services. If they are violating a law, you arrest them. You can see that the manifestation of the problem has increased in new york city. It is much more visible now than it has been. Exactly why, it is difficult to say. Its sort of a feeling of maybe permissiveness or what have you. Ive seen on couples who look perfectly healthy who have staked out a corner, and they are on that corner living every day. It is hard to figure it out. Charlie and you think that sends a signal . Ray it sends a signal that this is tacitly accepted here. It seems to be multiplying. Charlie i used to have the impression that everybody believed that having a Community Policeman that you knew that could walk beat was a very good idea. Everybody in the neighborhood knew the policeman, not only were they in police cars that they were walking the block. Is that an old idea that is no longer relevant because of technology, because of budgets, because of so many other things . Ray weve been doing it for almost 30 years in the city. Here, it was a big effort. I was his deputy commissioner. It is expensive. Its the most expensive way to patrol. I think in certain neighborhoods it is of value. But not everybody wants to have a local cop come into the store and sit with them. Charlie why not . Ray because they dont particularly like cops or what have you. But the notion that everybody should love the cop is unrealistic. You shoot for mutual respect. It be betterdnt for the community if in fact they knew each other and there was an awareness that you could confide in the Police Officer or believe he was there to protect you and he or she ray i think thats a little bit of oversimplification. Charlie we have talked about this before, the idea that the presence we have had cars with nobody in them. Ray that was a while ago. But the idea of a Strong Police presence was a very important concept. A series ofve police cars driving together. All of that to say that the police are here. Ray thats true. A little different on what youre saying of community policing. Charlie but its the same idea of police presence, is it not . Ray what we did was put in operation impact, where you have Police Officers graduated from the police academy, with supervision, were going and really saturating a particular area. Of they about 20 zones city. It worked for our administration. Isntou are talking about the convoys going through the city. On our watch, the city was down to 6000 Police Officers less than the previous administration. People to see police particularly in the midtown area. If you go to times square are other parts of manhattan, you will see a lot more police than youll ever see in other major cities like london and harris. That was part of our strategy. I put the program in place in the 1990s, all the commissioners have been supportive of it. Charlie tell me what is the most recent, innovative idea in police work. Ray it probably all comes to the use of technology. Police officers having cell phones that do a lot of rings, that make records immediately available to them. A started something called Realtime Crime Center. The notion was to take that concept, where you can get information on what is going on , the detectives did that and still do it. Moveou incrementally toward making the Realtime Crime Center a portable entity, a portable device that makes that Information Available to the Police Officers. Its about information, its about technology. Its happening in police work and so many other fields as well. Charlie what did Police Commissioner bratton do that undid something he took great pride in . Not even certain because i dont focus on it on a daytoday basis. , thate notion of that somehow stop, question and frisk was overused here, then it had to be overused in los angeles, philadelphia, and baltimore. Somehow he changes his position. I think it is a valuable tool that will result in decreased crime. You see shootings and murders are up here and i think it should be a cause of concern. Coming. Thank you for thank you for joining us. See you next time. Angie it is still combing. Monig. Coming. Janet yellen says that it redirected still combing. Is out there somewhere. From indonesian forest fires hits hazardous levels with schools being closed. Welcome to first up, item angie lau i am
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