Door at barclays. Anna its another american banker. Guy. And halfway between anthony bob. He knows about Investment Banking but hes also good with regulators. Barclays has been on a roller coaster ride not only with c. E. O. s but let me show you the chart. That was the picture they have man well be talking about a lot. The diamond era which was short. The stock actually was up in jenkins tenure but has been falling. Era starting. Anna and now j. P. Morgan, most reclently recently in the hedge fund sector. Thats the banking story. Well be focused on russia today. Russia over there at the calling forum. Guy were going to be talking to a lot of figures, no pressure there. The other stories you need to be aware of today, keeping an eye on the s. A. P. Miller story, we have a report out suggesting the latest offer has been rejected but were getting closer to put up or shut up deadline tomorrow so keep an eye on that story as well. I cant ignore the wolf of walsburg as well. Anna aparaphernalialy the casting decisions have not been made, maybe theres a cameo ppearance. It seems barclays may have a new boss. Arline hyde has the details. Caroline boston born, Investment Banking bred, sounding familiar when it comes to chief executives at barclays, mare their reducing to the norm. Theyre reverting to jedd staley who sounds similar to bob diamond he led the investment he spent decades at j. P. Morgan. He was passed over at j. P. Morganened ap left to head to be a partner at hedge fund blue mown take. Hes on the u. B. S. Board. Maybe this is where hes carving a name having a way with egulators. Regulators have been informed ey want staley to take the reins. He was among the top runners along with the finance director and chief operating officer, the internal candidates. We know why they seem to want a little bit of Investment Banking right now. We understand of course that the chairman had said that the chief executive, jenkins who he wousted in july, found it difficult to deal with the investment bank, particularly with shrinking the investment bank. Thats why they need the knowhow of a man such as staley, focus on debt and capital marks. These are the key prioritiers in bank. This is a man coming to the help to be able to stare to the helm to steer that new course and turn it around. Investment banking is the weakest in terms of return of the four unions of barclays. It helped their previous quarter in terms of numbers, we saw the credit card area driving numbers up but it needs to improve further. Lets have a look at the challenges that face staley as he takes the h lembings its helm. Boost the share price, theyre still trying to shrink the bank, 20 billion by 2017. This is the best performer of u. K. Banks in term os share price. Just starting to dipe to dip at the end there where we see the fuel to the fire when it omes to the share price. Guy lets get you news out of asia. Chinese stocks under pressure, weak import data, lets see how thats rippling over the region. Juliette from hong kong. Juliette we are seeing most of the markets in the red today. Imports falling by 20. 4 in u. S. Dollar terms year on year in september which was well below estimate. In fact the 11th consecutive fall weve seen, monthly fall for imports in chi that. Thats weighing on sentiment as well. But also the fall in crude oil price, oil falling from those highs we were talking about yesterday, impacting on mining players in the region, particular pli in australia. Here in hong kong, shares tumbling in london trade yesterday following that announcement to sell two of its mines to pay down debt. Weve seen shares fall significantly here today. Some other stocks in focus are the automakers. China car sales growing at their slowest pace in three years this underpins why the Chinese Government needed to inject more stimulus and they did so, of course that last month by cutting the tax on car purchases. Some of the carmakers coming under pressure. In hong kong, motor shares up a little bit, up almost 1 . A big pickup in casino stocks in hong kong. That week holiday gave a boost to macau casinos, gaming revenue much higher than expected. The mood weighed down here in asia by the fall in crude oil price. Guy juliette, thank you very much indeed. Lets talk about the roves the day. Ts going to be a busy week. Anna weve got a number of points to tell you about. In europe, u. K. Inflation and out 0 out of of germany, the zew data at 10 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Guy do you worry about chinese trade data . I havent had much time to worry about them, ive stared at them in the gloom. A lot of this will be a price affect. If you import Raw Materials and tick a chart up of year over year. Where do i put this in terms of a dollar figure . 5 00 in the morning is early to work on that guy but its down. Kit down 240 from 300. Thats more than a 20 fall. 10 you know, theyre not as bad i dont think in fact as a die hard emerging market commodities bear would have liked them to have been. However, weve had a nice run for a week in Commodity Prices and emerging market equities, currencies, you name it. Everything is better. This is going to take the gloss off it. The Australian Dollar, for example, i dont think its a ame breaker for the banks. Anna last week we saw a surge in emerging market, the biggest rally since 199 is that something that continues from here or something to look back on in kit i dont think this is necessarily going to stop it. I think it was triggered by the federal reserves decision not to do anything on rates, then l the pressure coming out of the rem anymoreby. What are we worried about again . The all clear and a bigger rally will happen when you think bigger emerging markets, and economies are growing and accelerating when people get optimistic that next years growth are better than this years. Were some way away from that. Anna. Its really a fed story last week . Kit theres a problem in my mind, id rather the fed raised rates and the u. S. Economy slowed enough. If the economy strundles alon at two pibt something two point something, thats good for emerging marks. But if the fed is on hold because sust slowing, and a bunch of economies who still at their hearts are exporting economies wont look that good and then we can go back to worrying about debt levels and all the things that i think we should worry about. So were in a shortterm rally that may be most of the q4 rally. Certainly a number of people want to make some money in q4, because its not been an easy year. But im not sure it stops today. Guy how do i trade it . Kit normally i hide under the bed on days like that. Anna thanks for coming out for us. Kit i dont want to join in with a great deal of enthusiasm that just because its the fourth quarter, its going to rally. I would like to oppose this move at some point, feels too early. I think its going to be difficult. Weve got, you know, weve got a meeting that may provide more easing in 2 1 2 weeks time, weve got another payroll coming after that. Theres a lot of potholes in this road but the amount of certainly the amount of Short Covering youve seen in the speculative end of the market is hubling. Guy it has felt like a squeeze. Kit. Right so when someone says where would you like to reshort, can i just please wait for it to settle down first . Guy go back under the bed. Anna thank you for dragging yourself out from under the bed. Guy well make sure he stays out from under the desk the rest of the hour. Were going to moscow, well be live there in a moment. Anna welcome back to countdown. Heres the stories you need to know this morning. Close to naming staley as their new c. E. O. Hes the frontrunner for the job. 23 approved the appointment could be announced within two weeks. Anna s. A. P. Miller doesnt think the latest offer is high enough to begin formal merger talks. Theyre also said to slew the 760 pound the 760 pound offer enough to extend the eadline. Guy sales in wines and spirits helped offset lower than expected estimates in fashion and leather goods. Chinese tourists chose to buy ia broad. Anna we learned that hollywood is looking to make a buck off the volkswagen scandal. Hans has the latest. How bad would things get for v. W. . Good morning to you. Hans it depends where you look. If you look at china, things may not be as bad as feared. If you look to brussels, they could be pretty tough. If you look to the u. K. , theyll have expensive fixes in the united kingdom. Brussels, the head of the European Investment bank say they may have to look at the loan made to vokes wag ton develop a clean engine he said in an interview he didnt want to recall the loans immediately because there could be problems there. Then in the u. K. , 400,000 vehicles could require a costly fix. That requires, it would be both what they do with the software and something with their fuel injection which i know you understand anna, guy does not. Then lets take a quick look at china. In china, thingers in luxury sector dont look as bad as fear. We spent a lot of time concerned about china, what that would do to the wealth effects. Daimler, their sales up 51 on the year, 53 . B. M. W. , excuse me the month. 53 for the month of september. Audi, a part of volkswagen, up 237b93 in september. You look at the luxury sector across the board, for the first three quarters, we have number, it doesnt look bad. I know you know what fuel injection mean, i wont have you quiz me. Anna, guy. Guy im not going to take im going to take the conversation in a different direction because that could be dangerous to say the least. Talking along the same sort of lines, hance you led our coverage of the v. W. Scandal thus far. Do you think you are going to get a walkon part anna a cameo. Guy a cameo in the movie. Hance i dont think so. I wasnt smart enough to see it could be a movie. I think there could be a great story in this. I dont know who will play the parts. Well have to talk about that offair. Muller, the new c. E. O. , you need someone from a bond movie and i think we all know who were thinking about to play him. Hes got white hair, killer blue eyes. Then how do you cast the casting on this, maybe i can get a bit part helping the casting. I feel like i know these characters pretty well. Anna hans, youre selling yourself short. You could get a part there. I cant believe theyre make a havent arent even written the book yet. Guy they havent even done the b. P. Movie yet. Anna that one is coming out next year. Let us know if you hear from them, hance. Guy back to something more mundane. Our chief asia economist joins us now. Tom, chinas exports beats expectation in september. Overseas sales stabilizing. Are we starting to see that . Chinas yeah, it was export numbers but if you dig into the detail the story hasnt got a lot better. Firstly even though they beat expectations for a big contradiction, they still registered a small contraction, so thats the third month in a row of falling exports to china. Secondly, if you look to the future, while the p. M. I. Export orders indexes are both lodged in negative territory, that suggests weve got a protected protracted period of export weakness to come. Anna tom, thanks for joining us from beijing. Only two stories when it comes to chinese trade data. Guy yeah, try to wrap it all up a together. Kit is still with us. Various people have said they think the rate is going to go higher this year. Do you believe them . Because pricing in the market would seem to suggest otherwise. Kit i dont, on balance. Look, i think theres a significant minority that would like to get rates up from zero almost on principle because the economy is not that bad. Theres nothing terribly wrong with it. But youd need a lot of sunny days where nothing was going wrong in emerging markets and no adverse news because the one thing you wont get is the upward pressure on any form of inflation in the states between now and then that provides a compelling case. The majority will say, we dont have to go yet. Why dont we wait another meeting . They can keep on saying that. I think that makes december less than 50 chance. Youd have to have an enormous number of things go right. Lots of sunshine and happiness in emerging market farce little bit so theres no turmoil coming from the global environment. And then youd get a hike that, by the way, frankly would be a nonevent for Financial Markets to the extent it would be so wrapped around with, you know, theyre not going to go very far. Anna do you worry who is in charge of this Decision Making process . That the markets are not listening or the markets are attuned to Different Things . Theyre not on the same path. Kit theyre not on the same path. I think that in a sense, do i worry . No, i end up thinking the peak level of rates is even lower than the lowest number i ever imagined it might be. Six, nine, 12 months ago. You can imagine a circumstance where as the economy trundles along with this twopointsomething pace, Unemployment Rate fall, inflation not going up, month after month, that you get rates up a little bit. But yeah the messaging means that you cant get up to price in anything thats even a second cousin twice removed of a normal weight cycle. It brings the scale of the cycle down all the time. Guy this amazing communication trategy theyve created is communicating nothing but confusion to me. Kit i think its a split at the moment guy do they tell you anything . Do they enlighten you in any meaningful way, shape or form . Kit i know people who try to ut a name by each dot. To be fair, you can glean from that that theyre more reichly to go when you change the composition of the voting panel. But oriole, no. I think the dots overall, the further out dot, destination dots, just seem unrealistic. So theyre another way of mess aning to us that they can bring them down a bit or fine tune it. Anna kit, thank you. Guy as Oil Stabilizes and problems in ukraine eases, investors are putting money into track the nds that russian stocks. Are we going to see a russian rebound . Ryan thats what everybody is hoping here in moscow at the russia call in conference, the biggest conference here in russia. Everyone is hoping that a rebound is coming. It looks like it but thats hot money if you will. Economically were not seing that yet. Its a conversation well have with russias central banker, well be talking to her later today. Shes got a difficult situation on her hands. On the one hand, russia is in a recession. Some people are saying it could be the longest recession russia has faced since Vladimir Putin came to power. On the other hand, russia has the second most volatile currency in the year after brazil currency, second worst performing currency in the world after brazil, thats if you look at the last year. Part of that sol tillity is that it does go up and has been going up for the last month yet inflation is still high, around 15 . Rates still stand at about 10 1 2 . Hes had to ease pausing. Were going to talk to andre costone, c. E. O. Of the countrys second largest back pping its under sanction bus its rebounding, stock prices up 30 . Theres hope there will be rebounds but its too every throw call that. Guy how worried are people where you are about whats coming out late her ryan they dont think its a game changer. They dont think the dutch will come out and say anything that will change anything. They think the easing of tensions in ukraine is the important issue. Many people here think that the sanctions will be dropped or eased come january and they think that would improve the investment climate. The biggest factor is the oil price and that will determine things. Anna ryan, thank you. Guy well take a break and continue in a couple of minutes. Guy it is 6 30 here in london, 7 30 in brussels, these are the stories you need to know this morning. Anna barclays is said to be close to naming jes staley as its new c. E. O. Years at j. P. Morgan before going to Blue Mountain. Hes the frontrunner for the job if approved the appointment could be announced in a few weeks. Guy miller doesnt think the latest offer is high enough to begin formal talks. The london based brewer is said to view the offer too low to warrant extending a deadline of 5 00 p. M. London tomorrow for a firm bid to be made. Anna lbnh, the luxury goods maker, growth is jumping. Demand for wines and spirits help offset lower than estimated sales of fashion and leather goods. Chinese tourists chose to buy abroad. Guy we are an hour and a half away from ethis European Market open. Caroline has the details. Caroline were expecting a soft opening. Its going to be a slightly lower day in european trading because of this piece of data. Imports, chinese import, the data slumping. This is an 11th straight month that were seeing a decline in imports. If you tom if you come in closer youll see they declined 17. 7 . Thats yuan basis. On dollar basis, down 20 . This is sending shivers down the spine of where demand is going for china, where domestic demand is. Adding to that auto sale. We get number for auto tales, passenger vehicle vehicle sales up just 5. 8 , the slowest pace for auto sales in three years. So again, adding to the woes of the auto sector, particularly that of germany. Thats whats happening in terms of data. This is whats having an effect in china. Were seing the hang seng in hong kong lower by a half percentage point. Putting an to end such a significant rally weve seen, weve seen basically day upon day and every day this month weve seen gains in the x. T. Market across the world, global stocks rising every day that every day this month. That has now come to an end. Lets look at curn sis the aussie dollar is falling, the downward pressure from this data on commodities focused currencies. Talking of commodity, oil just down, w. T. I. Crude down by 4 over a threeday period. The reason, opec just revises some of their views in terms of supply and indeed demand going forward. Well keep an eye on oil traders when they come to start trading at 8 00 a. M. Anna americans pay more for Prescription Drugs than anyone else in the world and costs have caught the eye and ire of politicians hoping to become president. At tonights as tonight sees the first democratic candidate debate, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have been vocal and market moving on the subject of pharm. Three different drug, treating three different diseases, made by Different Companies. But theres one thing they have in common. Over the last three years, their prices have rocketed dramatically and they arent the only ones. Partly its companies putting new price tags on old drug sms those hikes get attention, not least from u. S. Politicians. Even though the price of drugs has risen, drugmakers announcing their own values fall as the term price controls rings out around washington. An investigation into the pricing of hepatitis c drug in early 2014 saw manufacturer gilead fall 5 in a day. And touring pharmaceuticals overnight decision to raise a price from 13. 50 to 750 prompted this tweet. , it ing to price gouging led to a fall. It seems the political debate could prove very costly for big harma and biotech. At where get a look we stand and a european perspective too. We know this is part and parcel surrounding the democratic debate. Put it in con tegs for us. Give us a sense of whats going on here and how big a problem it is for the pharma sector. Nobody likes to see prices rise from 13 to 750. How big a problem is this for the pharma sector, from a much broader perspective than the two or three companies that have been mentioned . Its something nobody likes to talk about, nobody wants to bring out openly in the discussion but there are so many nuances to this conversation. The reality, this was a good, interesting idea to latch onto, thats a good phrase you go to hospital you dont know how much you paid. You go buy a Prescription Drug you know how much you paid. This is something people comprehend ease wrer than saying, the fact that were paying 35 over of our Health Care Budget on hospitals, i dont feel that. It goes through insurance, etc. This puts a really good value of opportunity that they manage to latch onto. Anna its affecting a number of companies, that piece as that piece we just played spelled out, sam. Which companies will be less ffected by this . Sam well probably hear more about this in the debate. Theres other stuff to talk about, syria and gun control. It depends on where the conversation goes. What other companies are really affected from a retoric perspective . I think well see the same impact, the same issues and the me companies again, valiant, allegan, thats been in the news. Theres a list of companies. Touring is a private turing is a private company. Will they bring something new to the conversation tonight with regards to drug price control, etc. . I doubt it. I think they played their cards nd will keep playing the same. Europe guy it has come under pressure of late. Whats the Ripple Effect on our side of the pond . People paying attention over there, Drug Companies obviously this is the biggest market in the world, the u. S. They need to pay attention. Also some of the ideas could leach across as well. Sam it is the biggest market. Everybody makes a lot of money there. One thing thats important to note, you see the share price drops started in july. I think there was a potential switch away from what is the cleanest defensive sector of in a world that may be thinking about Interest Rate rises. Gip there are other Market Forces at play other than hillary. Sam it pushed at an open door. Theres been a lot of talk, especially on the biotech side are we in an overvalued state . The biotech is up about threefold. I think this pushed on an open door. Anna kit are you transfixed by the race to the white house yet . Or are you leaving that . Kit transfixed in the sense of observing that the front runners will be the household names, definitely not doing as well as the outsiders. Thats a global move weve seen in the u. K. New york spain, pretty much everywhere. Thats been the overarching trend. You know in the u. S. , these because its a very twoparty race. You get having two leaders. Seems like the debate about drug prices sort of comes to the fore and have Ripple Effects. Im interested but i have no idea how its going to play out yet. I think thats difficult. Anna do you see it as an overarching global trend, voters being drawn to the unlikely challenge to the mainstream, outspoken candidate . Or is it so driven by individual factors in each case that its not the same narrative . Kit i think its a plea from voters to say, i dont know what i want but i want something, more conviction, more genuine, and different. Its a plea for can we go in a different line . Its got echoes in the sense that you get from all the things that happened and economics, again on effectively a debate about equality. Anna when you read editorials that linkiermy corbin and donald trump you think, yes, i see the parallels but there are so many things not the same about these men. Kit theyre not the same but they come from the same willingness to go to someone who is not always saying easy thing bus is saying something. Guy the market trying to price fix, is it possible . Hillary clinton is the frontrunner in the moment. The market in some ways never likes new ideas. Hill vi a frontrunnering shes been around, we have known she has president ial ambitions. Can you price that sf can you make a meaningful extrapolation and say this will mean x for the u. S. Economy . Kit shell be more interventionist than a moderate republican might be. A right wing view of the u. S. Economy would say this isnt going to be fantastically progrowth its going to continue an attempt at economic redistribution and curtailing big companies. But thats absolutely as far as you could possibly take it. Sam and to just add to that, one specific conversation we were having, we have to separate rhetoric from what really happens. Guy yeah, yeah, absolutely. Sam when obama took charge there was a Democratic House and democratic senate. And many of these kinds of things that hillary is talking about in her and sanders in their pitch, had been in the Affordable Care act in terms of controlling this. They just never got voted through. Even though you had everything was democratic. So i think we have to bear that in mind. These are very difficult. There was a lot of bipartisan interest in getting some of this approved but not all of it. Anna why cothese companies, how do they have the ability to stay in the market to put the prices up . Do they have some amazing effectiveness thats become proven . Sam some of these drugs are very effect i. The reality is that when theres no other competition and you buy a product that youre the only manufacturer of, then in the u. S. , drug pricing is free. What we see as the list price, a lot of conversations about list price. Eli lilly over the past four or five years had an incident whose prices went up 90 on the list place. But the actual net price has gone up 2 or 3 because they fwi a lot of it back in rebates. Theyre not talking about that. Weve written on that but anna very little transparency. Guy but heading up to the eneral election, i remember Ed Millibrand on this set saying he was going to limit pricing of what hospitals could charge. This is not a new conversation but it rarely turns into reality. Sam youre leaning against a trend for prices to go up as we get older and get ill at the same time. Youre trying to lean against he flow of time or the tide. You may not see if you managed anything. New england that sense it just does go on but how do we put a price on that in terms of looking at what the future means . Almost impossible. Anna sam, thank you for joining us. Kit stays with us a little bit longer. Well be right back. Guy coming up, talk is cheap when it comes to the europe. Anna welcome back. 6 46 in london, 7 46 in paris. Heres the stories you need to know. Guy barclays about to name jes staley as the new c. E. O. Staley is the frontrunner for the job. If approved, the appointment could be announced within two weeks. Anna s. A. B. Miller doesnt think the latest offer is high enough to begin merger talk. The londonbased brewer is also id to view the 67 billion pound offer as too low to extend the deadline of 5 00 p. M. Tomorrow london time for a firm bid. Guy leonardo dicap rhee yows company is joining with paramount to make a movie about the volkswagen cheating scandal. Paramount has acquired the rights to a prose po proposed book to be written by jack ewing. He bugget at the top of the market. This was a company that was 80 trading, 20 hard assets until 2012. At the top of the cycle they bought extra, changed the face of the company completely so theyre 80 hard assets, 20 trading. The whole idea was if there was a downturn in the commodities markets, the trading accruemen would help offset the hard assets. It didnt work that way. The traders were low on the same commodities the mining assets were. So if that was the reason to put this thing together one has to question that strategy. And if you look before the 2012 deal, glencore was earning double digits on call tall. It was a Trading House, basically a good trader. Now theyre earning low single bimmingts on the digits on the capital. You low a lot, did you go short . Im a potential purchaser. Youre a potential purchaser. Of what . Well you have to close out a short position, you have to buy stock. Ah. What moves are they making now . They were buying assets at the top of the market, now the commodities have crashed, theyre selling assets. Does that sound smart to you . Zinc they cut way back on. There was indication in the market the terminal indicated that the price was going up on zinc. If theyre getting rid of the asset and the and that makes the price go up, they dont benefit from that. Thats the problem. Again, its, im concerned about a company thats suppose to have had this great trading accruemen that seems to be buying at the top of the market and selling at the bottom. That doesnt sound smart to me. So i think until 2012, youd be hard pressed to find them doing anything that wasnt smart. It was an extraordinary company. What youve laid out makes the argument, theyve left their core competency, trading is what they do and theyve left that, but this is a big mistake but the first mistack weve seen out of them. So they did very, very well in a bull market is what youre saying. Ok. When the markets turned bad, they did not so well. I think that at the end of the tai thats the issue. Was this just simply a play on rising Commodity Prices as opposed to a company that made lots of money in both good and bad markets . I think the certainly we can question that. Buck us through glencore one more time. We understand what you think, help me understand how youre positioned. Remember, Public School girl from new jersey, hard for me. Were not going to comment on our position with glencore, stephanie, but we know the company pretty well. Its a company that was a reasonably high return on capital business, in in a bull market that turn intod a low return on capital, basically below their cost of capital. For the past handful of years, not just the past year, this company was declining in its returns since 2012. And so its a changed business. Its not a Trading House anymore. Its a collection of mines with a trading operation. Given where its trading today, we saw things move up. Now tell me not saying what your position is, but what would you advise me . What should someone do today . I would stay away to the commodities base. I think the deflation will continue on hard assets for a while. Anna lets go back to kit who is with us in the studio. He talked about the balance of real asset and the how one was supposed to hedge out the risk of the other and that didnt turn out to be the keas. Kit no, but its been a long, long market in commodities. Traders make money on commodities by being long more ften than short. I think what becomes important is the accumulated debt in order to do a lot of this. If the price has fallen, has it fallen far enough . I dont know. The danger of a macro knock on through this, if theyre having to try to sell assets, there are loans that they have to other companies in the same industry, you know, how long does it take to sort of clean the whole thing out so that we dont have to overshoot the price of commozzities to the downside too far and can we please avoid having something systemic in the Mining Industry in the way we did in banking. Were going to talk about another big story in a moment but at least get your two pence worth on this. At least they controlled the physical side of a market in a way other Trading Houses cant. Isnt there an argument that says he can do that . Thats what happened with zinc, theyre a big player, when they took a bunch of supply out of the market, the price would respond. They dont have that control over all markets. Tim like oil, theyre a small player in that, opec has much more power. Anna do you think weve seen the bottom . Kit my fear is its a series of bottoms that you could see a new low. My fear is were still getting stories about companies having to purge excess supply, excess capacity through this, then you get knock on effects through that as that goes on and weve probably got six more months of that before we feel confident and it will be quite volatile. Uy and another question, is drage losing control . Theres a creep. Anna slow climb for the euro. Guy are we judging draghi too soon . Tom i think hes said hed like to see the currency depreciate and that would help. As the chart show, the euro is appreciating and within the last week or two, all of the banks are nobody is cutting their forecasts for the euro. People have raised them, about half on them, and others have stayed put. People look at, wasnt that long ago people were talking about seeing parity. That seems to be gone from the onversation. Anna whats driving this . Kit on a daytoday basis, you put a chart up against the 10year differential it correlates annoyingly well on a daytoday basis. A yore ago it would have done that more with shortterm Interest Rates. It correlates historically over the last 10 years on days when the world is a risky place, theyve done well. Now when the world is a risk ri place, the ewe row is doing well because europe has foreign assets and on scary days days money comes home. The euro no longer goes down because the world is a scary place and its not finding it easy to go down because the e. C. B. Is about to cut rates. So weakening the euro at this point, youre fighting the deficit, the fact that weakening your currency has to have a curnry currency going up and going up and there are no takers at the moment. Then the lack of Something Nuclear which would wind it back to the start of the year. Draghi can get the euro down he did it at the end of last year, beginning of this year with more buying plus super cocktail moving Interest Rates. Anna were in diminishing returns of rhetoric. Guy i guess we havent teched him. Were going to do something to lower the negative rate i guess thats the big test. Tom it will be. The question is when does that come . Kit and you get a sense that doesnt come until the e. C. B. Is tested on the upside either by weaker economic day tark deflation coming thru but more particularly, e. C. B. Is much more likely to act on dollar trades between 115 and 120 than f it dribbles around here. Anna thank you kit, and thank you to you as well. Guy that wraps up the first hour of countdown. Well be in moscow when we come back. Anna a new man in the top job at barclays. Close touch name jpmorgan veteran as the new ceo. Guy the longest losing streak in six years. Declining moderately. Note 67. 4 billion pounds for sab miller unlikely to win approval. Guy welcome to countdown. I am guy johnson. Anna i am anna edwards. One hour away from the start of european equities trading. You, what we think the numbers are likely to look like from the get go under an hours time. Weaving negative, the trade factor out of china. How blurred how berkeley trades. Will be negative, the trade factor out of china. How barclays trade. Effectssee if barclays how we trade through on the pharma stocks and commodities stocks. We have breaking news. Lets go to Caroline Hyde. The sab miller story. Caroline they have reached an agreement in principle. From sab miller saying that i have reached an agreement on the key terms of a possible recommended offer to inbev, 44 Pounds Per Share increased from yesterday. Cash withper share in a partial alternative available for approximately 41 of the sab miller shares to help some of the large shareholders in sab. Now, all cash represents premium millerlly 50 on sab closing before the speculation on the 14th of september. They said it is unlisted cashs and 3. 778 pounds in for each sab miller share. That is basically a bit of discount at 30 94 sab miller. Andve to shareholder perhaps not the Tax Implications of paid out in cash. Also extending the overall deadline for taking this forward. Indeed, it seems that bruce a packed for the as they have reached a packed pact. And the board will unanimously agree on the offer. Finally compromise between the 2 battling brewers. We do see the biggest joining at 44 Pounds Per Share. Anna thank you very much. The latest on the m a. In the markets, lackluster start here in the european session. Chinese stocks fell from a sevenweek high after imports exports fell more than economists predicted. Juliette sally. How have the trade numbers went down in the market . Juliette what we the light trade its moving into the shanghai composite. Higher briefly for half an hour but flat. A little weakness coming through from energy and mining factors as you would expect out of china. Also seeing the Australian Dollar which is heavily linked file in the region. South korean index closing lower by zero point 1 . Quite a big switch out of japan. Players on energy that pullback in the crude oil and is Commodity Prices and china trade number impacting in australia. Here in hong kong, the hang seng is down by 0. 6 . We want to show you some of the stocks with the following in the region and quite a few doing well despite the down day in the region. Casinos going very well. Macau gaming was better than expected and sharp in japan closed higher by 6. 5 on a report it to make it ¥200 billion from a fund. Quite a few big movers. Generally the theme of today was lower in asia. Anna thank you. Guy deeper into the trading numbers. Tom orlik joins us from beijing. Tom, some beating expectations in september. Can we started to buy stabilization here . You are right, a guy. A beat on the china export numbers but the good news is exports are still contracting and that is the third month in a row of falling overseas sales for china. Divided way should wish to place in august which took place in august, italys and domestic currency terms so thats part of the explanation. If you look to the outlook, the arenumbers on export orders large and contractionary territory. Thats what is a just will threemonth of falling exports and probably got some more. Anna what does it mean for the chinese currency. The authorities will be pleased anyway was what they have managed to do with the number or devalue more even though we were told that was not the plan . Tom orlik so, the currency situation with Exchange Rate is really not sustainable, anna. On the one hand, we have got China Central banks burning through Foreign Exchange reserves to keep the yuan stable. On the other hand, where the yuan is currently is too strong for the export sector. In the mediumterm, the central bank is not going to expand National Treasure to defend and Exchange Rate which is choking off exports. Future, theiate signals we have been getting from chinas leaders from president xi jinping down israeli this is really stability is at the order of the day. We had the Deputy Governor off central been speaking at the imf meeting last week and he reiterated that message saying they see no case and the Economic Data for depreciation of the yuan. Thank you. Rlik, guy what is happening in the world. Lets bring get roger. Are you worried about china . Roger is right to be worried in general. If i think it is heading quite serious, the answer is no. What happened to end the past few months has been massively overdone. Back andwe will look say why do people get so worked up about it. Anna because falling growth will not be as much, why do you think the rest of the world is overreacting . Roger bootle all of the above, you have to take account of what happened to the stock market and people in the west and . Markets got a really worked up. This falling stocks. And people in the west markets got really work up. People sort of conflated theyll fall in the chinese stock market what the underlying problems which we know about and the signs of weakness early this year which we already knew about. It is nothing quite a new. It was not. A stock market bubble bursting and the revelation china is not there are weaknesses. It did not raise rates. Guy where we do about china or Global Growth . Fed looking at an economy thats looking ok . I guess they are playing safety first, arent they . I expressed that china is ok. Who am i . I would not want to bet the countrys future. Also worried about markets. Positionhe underlying not as bad as the markets are worried. The fact it is worried itself constrained on the said. I think the fed made a mistake. If i were in the said or the ork of england fe fed bank of england, i would want to get the rate hike out of the way. I think theres a lot to be said for getting that rate rise out of the way because it is a monkey on your back. People betting so much on when it will happen. I think it does not matter a great deal. Anna we will be talking about how high they will go . Roger bootle well, you will. To some extent, that is right. The fed or bank of england to assess things. The fundamental factor is a rates have been incredibly low for a very long time. I think that starting to show signs of distortion. I would be wanting to back to normality i would a wanting to start back to normality. Lly, not mucha difference. That is true. Unless youre going to . Race up by a huge amount jack up a rates by a huge amount, you have to watch. Has been saying that for quite a while and gloopy johns report. Gloomy jobs quite report. Would have to see what happens. I suspect the jobs data will prove to be misleading. And the courage to proceed. Guy roger, we will come back to talk about recession. He will be staying with us. We will speak to him again shortly. American may be back at barclays. What you need to know. Guy were going to break down the run heard sab miller, ab inbev bid. A lot of beer. See you in a moment. Guy it is 7 15 a. M. In london. Buy ab inbev has agreed to sab miller. The record deal gives the budweiser maker control of about halfof the industrys profit. Half of the industrys profit. Is said to be close to naming a new ceo. According to a person familiar, the bank told regulators he is the front runner. The plumbing could be announced within the next two weeks. Makershe luxury good jumping 7 in europe, japan, and the u. S. Demand for wines and spirits helped. On luxurycrackdown has hurt exports. Guy back to our beer story. 60 billion pounds is at the scale we think. Sab miller taken over by ab inbev. The head on top of this beer were talking about, the share price. What sab miller close yesterday. When for to open this morning and that is where the deal has been done. When we are waiting for it to open this morning and that is where the deal will be. Surrounded by pints of beer. Caroline hyde has more. Caroline a similar shot, a 21 premium of where sab miller is trading and we will see a pop in the shares. 44 Pounds Per Share is what has been preliminarily agreed upon. And sab miller after weeks of wrangling have managed to come to a compromise i had of the deadline. They have until 5 00 tomorrow to get an agreement. The deadline has been pushed back until october 28. We understand the board would recommend sab miller, a deal for 44 Pounds Per Share. A slight discount if you want cash and shares. Thats for the bigger shareholders of sab miller not have the foot quite such a tax bill if they are paid more heavily in shares rather than cash. If you are in every shareholder at sab miller, you will get for four pounds for every share. Thats what is agreed. For every share print interesting not only what to expect in sab millers shares for what a roller coaster ride since the spike in midseptember when you first learned of a deal. A deal that will bring the juggernauts of the bear market. Everyone in three beer sold will be done a buy one company. Issues in terms of regulation doesnt this inspire . Does this inspire . They both have agreements to Different Companies cocacola and pepsi. They would not use both and have to selloff a number of assets. Perhaps chinese assets, a joint venture held by sab miller, one in the United States as well. To be sold tove get the thumbsup from regulators . A are likely to see we saw spike and the pound. 68 billion pounds is what you need to be potentially looking at going to the market and that will help to drive it higher. People think demand in the pound will drive up that much more. Interesting. A deal is struck. Down to the wire. Tomorrow is the deadline. 44 Pounds Per Share. A hefty premium. All of the speculation around in midseptember. Back to you. Guy 3 billion to get it done. Former traders will appear in court in new york in the first u. S. Trial to be held on the alleged rigging of libor. For more on the significance, tony errands is here with us. Good to see you in the studio. These allegations and they date back to 2006, dont they . The solvent is not seen seem to end any time soon. Tony it does not. The allegations a back to 2006. Most of us had not heard of it the barclays was fined at last of american german bottom diamonds and went to parliament as spoke to parliament and stepped down. Billion worth of fines about a dozen Financial Institutions and came to a crescendo in august were tom hayes was convicted in london. The americans will get their chance to see if they can get an eviction. Guy compare and contrast was will get here and what with had on our side. On the prosecutor side, similar to tom hays. A lot of emails about traders joking and instant messages about get of a rate up and celebration. To thell sound familiar fines. What will be different is tom hayes defense centered on my bosses knew about it and everybody was doing it. Thats defense that never seems to work. It did not work. Here, they will put a libor on trial. How is it set . An exact science pretty it has changed. Back then, banks guess at what they thought that would lend to each other. They were saying it was in the round of possibility and we were now manipulating anything, just making our best guesses. Anna thank you for joining us. Tony aarons. Of cpi data in a couple hours. Lets bring back in roger bootle. Somethinglation is you have talked about a few times in your life. Commodity prices according to Goldman Sachs will go further lower and disinflation every screaming around the world. China is a part of that conversation as well. How can you raise rates in an apartment . When inflation is so low . Roger bootle we have to see if Goldman Sachs is right about Commodity Prices. I suspect they will not to be a Commodity Prices a major collapse of Commodity Prices from here. Central banks are the worries. You have got a real possibility of a spiral developing. As at the moment, not really on the cards. Its might show a slight negative. Technically, we will be in deflation but the technical thing. If you look at the underlying rate of inflation, the core rate is much, much higher that. We are seeing signs of rising wages in both countries. The indicator i would be looking at. Probably looking closer. The platforms, will be there for raising rates. Anna brexit is very topical this week. Last week, one Campaign Launched this week another launched. You are not a big fan of europe in the past. Are you involved with one of the out campaigns . There are 2 . Roger bootle vote to leave. Anna why are there 2 . Shouldnt they join forces . Wide not come together . Roger bootle in the business world, you would not say that. I would hope is that people would bury their differences frankly. Important personalities involved which get in the way. Tohink as we get closer where the referendum will be, will find a merging. Guy when will we start hearing facts . Roger bootle sex about what sacks about what facts about what . Guy whether we should be in or out . Not cometle facts do without a value judgment. The subject, probably many subjects. If you want to find out about the issues, read my book. Umm anna the policy vacuum created . Policiestle not just but the reaction of companies. The biggest unknown is what sort of trade dell we will be up to get deal with would bank to get for the eu . People say do not worry. Access of the market and the other people say that is not the case. An external tariff and there might be something nasty with us. Between those extremes lies the truth. Where . We do not know. How damaging is regulation . Very bigple who play benefits are leaving tends to put a big value on the cost of excessive regulation. And here is the assumption we would resend the regulation. That is not a given. We made come out to rescind and not do it. Do with it we would rescidnd . Guy the problem with the argument. Andt of hearsay subjectivity and do we, dont we and this whole debate. Were asking people to make an incredibly important decision. With had campaigns launched and i am hoping whatever the date will be was start to get more clarity. Seeingootle i do not you will get a clear answer. Campsll get 2 opposing firing at each other and that will not affect a lot of people. My own view is the coolheaded analysis of the shows is i personally think both the net benefits and net cost are pretty small. Anna and economic decision for you . Roger bootle the bottom line. I think this is a political thing. My contribution would be to say if we close out, not an economic disaster. Maybe a small cost. Maybe a small gain. Ofyou do not like the idea signing up to this political arrangement that it implies, with a very open choice simply to leave. You . Re moving on, arent no one knows. Isuess the conventional view , yes, it would happen. In fact, much less clear than you might think. Exactly how scotland would fare outside of the eu, particularly with catalonia which would bank to stay in the you or gained remittance is very difficult. And the eu are gain remittance is very difficult. You could do well in scotland. Anna when you like to see a vote . Roger bootle a bit later. We need to the arguments to be fully aired. I would be worried if the Prime Minister try to bounce this one. We would have to rush. Anna thank you for joining us. Capital economics. Guy can president putin pull russia from recession . Andrey kostin will join is very shortly. Right here on bloomberg. Guy it is 7 30 a. M. In london. The stores you need to know. Has agreed to buy sab miller. The record dell gives the budweiser maker control of about half of the industry. Guy close to naming jes staley as of the ceo both for joining blue capital. Regulators theld front runner for the job if approved, he could be announced within two weeks. Anna china shows no sign of a letup and the countrys economic slowdown and imports fell. Declinesight month of and the longest losing streak in six years. Exports above expectations. Guy stocks fell from a sevenweek high after imports fell more than economists predicted. Juliette saly is standing by in hong kong. Juliette good morning. That trade data has been the investors to look at in asia. We are seeing a pickup in chinas state chinese stocks. Good news from automakers and casino stocks look good in hong kong. A little bit of a switch around. A lot of markets have closed and closed in the red on the disappointing import data out of china and theyll pullback in the crude oil price. We saw the oil sector, the worst performing in the region. The asiapacific oil and gas sector down by 2 today. 23 out of the major stocks falling led by santos. 21tainly that data down point 4 and u. S. Dollar terms as a pullback in the oil price weighing on the asian region today. Anna thank you. Guy a couple of things in terms of what is happening. Half an hour from the start or european equities. Sab miller deal front and center. He is having a meaningful impact on asset classes. First of all, the pound as you can see spiking on the back of that deal. The pound is trading higher as Caroline Hyde has pointed out on the back of the sab deal. Where we thing equities will open. London likely to outperform a little bit. Most of the main markets here are down. It looks like london will be up. Is down. Dax is down by 0. 3 . Anna lets talk about russia. And asfrom august lows the conflict in ukraine eases, investors putting money into Russian Exchange funds. That is from a low base. Is russia about experience a rebound . The topic of conversation. Ryan chilcote joins us with a banker who has plenty of insight. Ryan . Bt ofis the ceo of btb, russias secondlargest bank. It has been sanctioned by the but the the market stock is up nearly 30 . That is the question that Andrey Kostin will answer. Oil has not gone up 30 . Our investors warning to russia and russias banks . Think russia is undervalued. The oil prices are going up and ruble. Meeting coming from a with the world bank and what is surprising is the discussion over the world bank, much less concerned about asia in and other emerging markets. I think the russian is at the right one. The economy is good and many improvements inside of russia despite negative growth this year. Ryan went you see that changing . When do you see it changing . A lot of people saying the recession will be over by next year. Andrey kostin waiting a little bit to see when is the right time to invest in what is happening. Or change your mind. Abouta lot of talk now the situation in ukraine easing. Where does it fit into your conversation with investors . Do they ask about it and are they fairly comfortable . Theey kostin we think that ukrainian effort and more from the [indiscernible] we do not expect any more orders. Minimal. Worsening in the general is an effect. Act of the moment, we do not see any reason. Ryan aery big bank very big bank . Andrey kostin we will adjust and we are quite comfortable. Ryan your operations in ukraine. You have a bank is there that shoe recovered that you recapitalize. It is not throw the way good money . Andrey kostin it is not. Not new money but our existing loans. Our intention in the ukraine. We would like to stay there. The ukrainian government, staying there. Quite good right now. Ryan weill get the will get reported a and it will say aircraft was brought to down i a missile from by a missile from rebel held territory. Does it change anything for you . Notey kostin it does matter. It matters about who suffers and the war and we think it is the ukrainian side. It does not change anything. I do not know the reaction of the community. I do not know why it should be russian. At saying it is where to syria fit into the conversation with investors . Do people bring get up . Elated to they easing of sanctions maybe help ease sanctions . Andrey kostin whether it would lead to bigger which will be a burden for the russian economy and it is not. And we shall see. I think the russian action in syria is pretty much in line with the national war and everything. West . In relation with the sanctions, the people said maybe they would be eased in january . Andrey kostin i do not expect it. Working from the presumption. Centralbankrstand declined in the request you may for a long time funding because they said your bank is sanctioned so it is dangerous to lend you money. Isnt that accurate and does it annoy you . We do not have any problem with dollar liquidity for a number of reasons. First of all, our population diverted much of the ruble before it became very volatile. A dollars. End much most companies do not prefer to put their money in dollars for the same reason. Rubles. Emand in we are comfortable if things change, we will think about it. . Yan how do you feel about vtb there was a lot of talk about recapitalizing. Do not needn we anymore. We will talk about it. We do not need the capital. Cannot do anything. We will have to wait. Write a bank ease or ryan ease or pause, do you think the centralbank will resume cutting rates at the end of the month . Isnt that what you will like to see . Is reasonable it to take it down to the level. Ryan everybody wants to know what will happen to the ruble . Andrey kostin we think ruble will not change too much. Roughly about the same. Goldman sachs said at the low oil prices we are seeing right now could be around for 15 years. What does it mean for russia . Andrey kostin i know the forecast of the world bank is different. Weve already adjusted for the price. I do not think it will go much lower than that. Debt write a bank be painful for the russian economy ryan it would be painful for the russian economy . Andrey kostin i do not know why. It would be reasonable. Ryan russian secondlargest airliner is going through a lot of problems and said they should go into bankruptcy. You have lent it a lot of money. Can you update us . Andrey kostin we definitely connected the aircraft in russia. The rest ofdea is the company but [indiscernible] the passengers. Ns were in thea form of and western aircraft. The Russian Company and the rest of the world. You very much, Andrey Kostin. Russiasf vtb, secondlargest bank. I asked about sanctions and he said he does not think that will heeased come january and does not think Goldman Sachs prediction of Lower Oil Prices for 15 years. Guy thank you very much. Ryan chilcote. Anna next more on the beer deal of that has moved the pound. Ab inbev has agreed to buy sab miller. What all does it mean . More on that. Guy it is 744 a. M. In london. The stories you need to know. Has agreed to buy sab miller. Record deal against the budweiser maker control of about half of the industrys profits. Guy barclays is close to naming jes staley as ceo. He was with Blue Mountain capital. A cordial person familiar, the bank told regulators the front runner could be appointed within the next couple of weeks. Anna no sizable lead up in chinas economic slow down as imports sale 17. 7 in september. The longest losing streak in six years. Exports were above expectations. Ab inbev deal. We want to know what kind of premium you could get. 21 , 44 is the price we are at. Thomas joins us. What clinched the price . What is going on . Withter it has to do price. The backandforth of negotiations and we initially saw an informal offer of maybe 38 and then 40 and then 42. Increments in small and it is good to see 44 area sab is happy. Under tremendous pressure to agree. Anna the deadline was looming and quicker action toward a price area what does it mean for shareholders . Thomas buckley well, part of the company that has always been focus on profits and Value Generation over a period of time and fascinating. Ab inbev acquired and delivered extremely quickly. Done . S it a deal is the deal going to be affected by regulators . A deal but kind of preliminary at this stage. What now happens . Thomas buckley because the deal is been around, the consideration from their early stage including the u. S. Where as a be miller will probably have to sell a stake in millercourse. And also in china with china resources. And it would be acquired by the Chinese Government or a third party. All of the consideration. Anna wouldve talked in the past about the culture clash that could be waiting as of all businesses are brought together. Has quite a reputation for cost cutting. And as a be trying to get ahead of it. Thomas buckley that is true. Ab inbev has been about costcutting. Sab miller in recent times focused extensively on tradition and the fun of trading a beer. It will be fun to see them integrate. Digital fun of fun of drinking beer. American,staley, an is tipped to being named the ceo of barclays. Lets bring in Stephen Morris who joins us now on set. Why pick a u. S. Investment banker to something in the past . A real change from the experience . Reporter complete different from their previous ceo, a britt. Seen as aly kennedy vote of confidence. When John Mcfarlane came, he was in the executive chairman and much friendlier to the investment bank. Jenkins was more hostile. We heard mcfarlane visited the office and tall to the traders and dealers in celsius. S dectalk to the traders talked to the traders and dealers and salesmen. Guy where would we put this guy . Stephen morris toward the diamond end but not as flashy and brash. Theond clashed with regulators. That is well barclays wants to avoid. He will be aware if he does the top job. He is a second jpmorgan graduate, if you will to out and take over u. K. Bang this year. Bill winters taking over standard job. This something they u. K. Board like about jpmorgan. Strategyt kind of about this need to balance different size of the banking the business and negotiated with regulators . Stephen morris one of the isticisms at Antony Jenkins he did not properly understand that Investment Banking and found it to heart to get to grip with the cost that and found it too hard to get the grip and found it too hard to get to grip with the costs. The u. S. Has a very strong track record of buying lehman brothers. A new york will probably help with that and the new regulations coming in europe , other decisions to make about the commercial and retail bank and african unit. Anna is is still coming from the u. K. Or european pacific . Stephen morris the bank of england is set to report a consultation paper. We have to hope that jes staley is up on regulation. Guy a lot to read up on. How the team . A hedge fund which is interesting. Usually you bring a bunch of and the team is in place tipped as being an internal candidate if they go this way and a good finance director so i cannot imagine they will want to replace him unless he goes. John mcfarland is a bold chairman and would definitely have his say evenly steps back to nonexecutive. He will have a say on Strategic Decisions are made. I do know if he will bring additional people with him. That had a massive rebound. Lets hope so. Anna thank you. Stephen morris. Guy what were watching for the rest of the day . German data. What will it tell us . To hans nichols. She is standing by. Inflation, stagflation, the debate. We got earlier was a confirmation we had deflation at 0. 2 for september. It was a confirmation. Before we do the vw numbers, to the east and a look of china. Exports a little better than expected. When you look at the imports out of china, why theres so much queasiness inside of germany. The imports falling off a cliff much worse than expected down 17 on the month and that brings us to vw. Her current expectations and that is what we want to look at. That is taken a battering. All the way down to 12 percent last month. The survey expectation is 6 and the reading and just about two hours. A few months ago, february, north of 50 . Well seen vw fall off a cliff. With not seen it happen we have not seen it happen with the ef survey. Is just financial services. Members get surveyed. We do see a bit of divergence but we have seen some negative numbers come out area i always want to say and pronounce it to the american and german way. I will yield to you guys because you are my social betters. Anna you are just showing off. Guy he is a hybrid. Anna he is showing off. That sounds nice. Have you had a call yet from Leonardo Dicaprio as you to play a cameo in his movie . Hans i of known for my directorial abilities. I have been known for my directorial abilities. Sidexample, i know which is better of yours which sometimes our directors do not know. I know what is better. Guy i think both sides are better. Anna he is closer and have the right line. Diving is very day guy very dangerous. Jonathan ferro is here. You watch hans nichols doing his jokes which seemed to be proliferating at the moment. Mine was always a vodka. W in a vodka the v and w in a vodka. Every body with experience in german has the story. M a you do not speak german. Jonathan i do not. The debt story with all of the m a going on is interesting. Sab miller, a lot of debt that has to be rates. When you decide to buy a house, if you can get the rate, that the push you over the line. You want if a lot of the dealmaking is frontloaded ahead of the federal reserve. Knowsussion for a man who about fixed income, stephen major. A major, major call of 1. 5 on the 10 year next year. That is the topic of a big discussion after the break. Anna Jonathan Ferro with on his own move. On the move. Jonathan good morning and welcome to on the move. I am Jonathan Ferro. Moments away from the start of european trading. Lets get straight to your morning brief. And megadeal. Sab miller for 68 billion pounds. A record deal. Rate, just fed jobs rate. Fed jobs rate. Heading back to austria, justley is set to name daily as its new ceo. Is the search finally over . Three bigs stories. But the 100 dead flat. A couple of stocks to look at. Lets get to the market open with Caroline Hyde. Caroline the longest winning streak in european stocks since july today. On the downward side as we see that data overflow from data from asia. Down 17. 7 . If youre looking at the dollar value, up 20 . 11 straight months of decline for chinese imports. It highlights concerns about domestic in china. We are seeing the cac up 10 . Slowly but surely were likely to see a little bit of money coming off the table when it comes to equity