Manus were crammed waiting for the drop of beer in the glass. We have the fed numbers. Never far from a work function is anna edwards. The probability of a rate hike in the United States falls from 48 . That is basically what the white line is. The probability is dissipating. Lightly down she goes we dropped 1. 7 last week. Most of that was on friday. The fed governor is on this morning saying that the market is too complacent on rates. Anna all of that increasing appetite overnight for risk assets. Lets get to these heineken numbers. Heinekens interim dividends have come in at 0. 52 euros. That had 7 million euros, the thirdlargest brewer in the world. Previously said that asia was going to be the place that was going to the driving the sales growth amid stagnant sales markets in europe and a weakening consumer environment in russia and nigeria. Lets is a sector get to the estimate numbers. The profit in the first half excluding items. 977 million euros, just a fraction below the estimate of 1. 0 one billion euros. A sector influx as we wait for sab. Argued for the ab inbev of the accepted last week. We are waiting for the final docking of is and crossing of ts. They have been talking about an increasingly challenging environment. You were going to be speaking to the ceo of this business. She will be joining on the move at 7 30 a. M. U. K. Time. Ties inhe fed story with everything including the emerging market currency, equities, dollars again. Abes package, which would be the 26th dose of fiscal stimulus since the 1990s. We have the korean won, it hits a three month high. Again, it is very much to do beinghe dollar weakness pervasive. Crude at the bottom of your screen. The monthly loss last month was down 14 . That is pretty much as demolishing. 41. 77. Money managers have never been more certain of an oil price drop. Record new bets on Falling Crude prices. If you are looking for a higher oil price, we dont have good news on that front this morning. Lets get bloomberg first word news. Investors are estimating how many times the u. S. Central bank will raise Interest Rates this year and next. It will probably write about the pace being slower than previously thought. So says new york fed president william dudley. Hiket the chance of a rate by the end of the year roughly one in three, and the odds of an increase next year only slightly better. Bloomberg will merge its uber will merge its China Business with ridi, the dominant ridesharing business and the company in the country. They said the new company would be valued at 35 billion. Weaker economic prospects economic prospects following the brexit vote. The forecast said that it will intract 1 next year and 2018. Exporters largest oil , saudi aramco, has lowered the price of crude sold to asia by the most in 10 months. The crude will be cut by 1. 30 next month. The new policy is part of the battle for market share with iran. Meanwhile, saudi arabia is set to offer the bank shortterm loans worth 4 billion to help with liquidity. People familiar with the matter say the central bank may be money available in june. Lenders are facing a cash squeeze as the government withdraws deposits and sells local currency debts to offset the kingdoms deficit. Has smashed rivals to top the box office in north america. It ranked and 50 million in the opening weekend, beating other andomers like bad moms nerve. Global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. You can find those stories on the bloomberg at top. Manus lets get out and see what the asian markets are doing this morning. We are waiting for the 26th stimulus since the 1990s. It is all about fiscal stimulus. Absolutely. 26, will that one work . Higher for a sixth consecutive session on the regional index. We are seeing them rise along with u. S. Futures and market currencies getting a boost. The new york fed president has been speaking in bali saying investors are too complacent about the fact that they dont think that will be a fed rate hike coming through. Certainly the aspects that money currencies saying, and money Market Equities higher to kickstart the week. We have seen very solid moves on the hung saying. Hang seng. On the data coming today wasnt stronger than the government measure. Still a lot of concern about the potential to curb wealth management, which is weighing on sentiment. 2 10 of 1 . P by monti prices leading the day in australia today. After the bell on friday, sony beating market estimates with an impressive 205 million profit. The share price at the highest in three weeks. Withisappointing in tokyo its firstquarter results. Just having a look at the casino as well in hong kong. The macau casino revenue come through. It fell 4. 5 from the year in july. That is better than what the estimate was looking for. These emerging market currencies 9 10 of 1 orea, up against the dollar. That is the strongest level since july last year. Lets thought about the data we have had from china. The factory gauge has splintered for july with the official and private manufacturing measures heading into different directions. Private ratings and slept while the government measures jump to the highest since last year. Ofthere a clear take away the private and official figures giving us a cloudy picture . They have detected number cap they have the tepid number, the governments official number, slipping into contract into a contraction zone. Got45 minutes later, we this very unusual outperformance from the private measure. Full percentage points. It usually lags the official number. Various interpretations. One is that maybe some of the smaller firms that contribute to the private survey were less affected by floods. Another is that it is a smaller sample size so it only takes a handful of survey respondents to change and become a little bit more optimistic. If you taken together, really ,ot for that common theme things arent getting too much worse. Manus talk to me about the services side. This is an economy in rebalancing mode. It looks like an area of strength for the economy. Malcolm that we can clearly say. That has been a thing now for several months if not years. The services sector, which we should remind people is now bigger than manufacturing and makes up more than half of chinese manufacturing, it is still doing pretty well. The clear take away is that services are still doing well. Some of the Innovation Lead changes and seem to be on track. That is the good news story out today. Mufacturing, is a mixed picture. Anna thank you very much for your analysis. Lets bring in our guest for this half hour. Joining us here, the head of rates at of these investments. Lets start with the thoughts around china. We have had these sort of conflicting data points. Onesuggesting expansion, contraction. Does this change your view of where china heads . It really reflects what you would expect in that they are trying to transition away from a Manufacturing Base to a more balanced sort of middleclass consumption oriented type of economy. They have been doing a reasonably good job of that so far. It does come with a price. Overall growth is generally slower. We have seen some weakness in the currency which is no doubt doing the big surprise in this data is that you would expect manufacturing to be getting more of a boost rather than services. The economy is slowing. We still think there is going to be further easing from the pboc in coming months. But only in terms of the rrr rate. Still trying to support the growth half which we think will come in around 6. 5 . Manus the longest run of games since 2015 in dollar you want in dollaryuan. What does that do to the overall direction of travel for the yuan . Charles it could continue. I think the key message really instability. That is what they are trying to tell the world. More or less, they dont want any strong currency boosts at all one way or the other. But no doubt, they would be happy to see that depreciation. They may not be too keen to see it start to reverse. Anna big news on friday came in the shape of japan. That had the markets really focus in on the japanese economy. 26th stimulus since the 1990s. Anna 26th attempt that fiscal stimulus. Is this something that is going to move the dial in japan . Charles unlikely. The reality is that the shock of the shock and awe headline numbers the reality is that they are borrowed from other programs. It makes great banner headlines. What you spend is really not that substantial. Not 28 trillion is really 28 trillion . Manus it is probably something more like 7 trillion. Korean exports dropped 487 month in a row. Gdp the lowest in quite a while, 50 of what the market expected. It is a very slow growth world. Charles global trade is very weak as you are pointing out. Even with all of the stimulus we have seen, all of the monetary support has been put in, the that the Bigger Picture dynamics such as deflation, they are all compressing the potential growth rate of the global economy. If the growth rate is low, yield will be very low. Particularly when they are supported by specific policy actions such as the ecb qe program. Anna what is your expectation around the boj . On friday, they announced that they are going to do this comprehensive review of Monetary Policy. On friday, the conversation was that maybe they are have second thoughts about Interest Rates. Today, there seems to be some commentators suggesting that maybe it might mean more monetary stimulus. Charles generally in japan, when you announce Something Like this, it is the start of a process of a barely of a fairly significant policy shift. If you want to demonstrate that you need Something Like helicopter money coming you would have a fairly long process to get to that point to show that it was necessary because then you can take it to parliament, get the law changed. We will whether that is on the horizon. Charles that is a possibility. My personal read is that in the short term the bank of japan wants to see what they will actually get from the government. Manus it is monday and we have a very busy week ahead. The bmi manufacturing data from across europe and the u. S. Tomorrow, numbers from japanese Prime Minister shinzo abes ¥28 trillion. Thursday, the bank of england releases a Bank Decision. A rate cut, the first in seven years. Anna payroll friday in the u. S. The estimate is that the u. S. Economy will abandon 75,000 jobs in the month of july. 175,000 jobs in the month of july. Coming up, former israeli president shimon peres criticizes Donald Trumps view on nato. At 6 30, we get a take on what to expect from shinzo abe this week. Banks look at the eu stress tests and which cranks still remain at 6 45. Manus you are looking at a rather foggy shot of hong kong harbor. Up 1 4 of 1 . Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Uber will merge its China Business with the dominant ridesharing business in china. Please see the new company will be valued at 35 billion. Uber will continue to operate the app in china for now. Shares have risen after the Company Posts a firstquarter profit. Analysts were expecting an 18 billion loss for sony. They say the Playstation Division overestimated the loss from the earthquake which shut down the site of digital camera production centers. Pokemon go dropped from the top the videogame charts in japan. Nintendo says it does not expect a major earnings boost from the app. Panasonic shares have plunged in tokyo after it recorded firstquarter earnings on friday. The firm says it plans to sell inrly 4 billion in bonds seven banks including goldman, to look into the sale of 5, 7, and 10year note. The group is telling back is buying spree. It is not focused on getting leaner. The ceo spoke to me recently here on Bloomberg Television. The believe we have capability to get investmentgrade ratings. Clear thatis crystal this has become our strategy. Haidi that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Anna thank you. Former israeli president shimon peres says Donald Trumps suggestion that the u. S. Would not defend nato allies unless they pay would be a mistake. He said he did not want to be directly involved in u. S. Politics, but that america became a world superpower by making friends, not enemies. To suggest that america would disconnect relations with nato, would leave it open to other countries. In my judgment, it is a mistake, a great mistake. By giving,ame great not by taking. Manus the head of rates at aviva investments is still with us. The two burning issues of 2016 is the residential election and what happens next with the Federal Reserve. Dudley at the new York Federal Reserve is saying that investors are getting too complacent on rates. He is sending a very clear message. Charles that is been the case for quite a while. Months and months. So far, the market has been proven right. I think really what they are , look,o tell people is we are just in pause mode for the time being but the world is time being. Still evolving, but perhaps slower than they would like. Given the opportunity from the now move rateld they would not now move rates higher. Connectedness of the rest of the world now and the strength of the dollar, one of the small factors going on is the Living Conditions in the states keep on tightening. The provision of credit is actually as well. Youre getting all of these tightening of monetary conditions even without the Federal Reserve moving. Look at the conversation before friday and it looks to be about better data out of the u. S. These headwinds from abroad, if only they could be overcome. But then, we got the gloomy data on friday. Gdp growing at half the pace that the market had expected. Was that a game changer for you . It certainly move the work function on the bloomberg . Charles i wouldnt describe it as a game changer. Were running at a very high industry high inventory level and the u. S. Chose to run down some of those inventories and therefore gdp was weaker than expected. Aroundnomy was growing 1. 5 to 2 . It is growing, which is a lot better than some other places are. But, it is not enough to really worry you and certainly not enough in the global context for the dollar and everything else, to get inflation being a problem. They can always deal with it should in turn up. We have a 10 year Government Bond chart for you. It dropped 11 basis points yesterday. The market is the longest as it is been. Rates are going to be lower all the way around anyway. Charles the valuation is not attractive at 1. 45. That said, the case for a major bond market selloff is not really in place. That itaying on friday could create stagflation. Charles that is an interesting scenario that could take place in the u. S. Right now. Rather than buying nominals like this, you buy tips. They are reasonably priced. Program, investors braced to sell for up as four abes stimulus. [hip hop beat] olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. So you never miss a moment, miss a minute, miss a medal. Why settle when you can have it all . Soccer to wrestling. Track and field to basketball. Fencing to cycling. Diving to balance beam. All you have to sa is, show me, and boom its on the screen from the bottom of the mat, to the couch where you at . Show me the latest medal count xfinitys where its at. Welcome to it all. Comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. Hohes woiithongestc . Estc. Thlais hotas hkeca hyson at y llseg ca hke cwistomin biness rn fid , p cth bou e. Juais hotas hkeca hyson at y ddstus azetomimeag y wiourofiar eie esr a adylr onheesev. Or upde itrestn i, w c elanowp r ynebuss. U doe t eth dveryay oding uc pwiwiro fi hthatelroui imperial palace in tokyo, 6 30 a. M. In london. Ofhave a new addition daybreak available on mobile and bloomberg. Com. Lets look at what is topping the agenda. We are in a Holding Pattern, referring to china. ,he services and manufacturing the manufacturing below the expansioncontraction line. 53. 9 services number. What is interesting is the official data and the private data. So, two sets of data, and it encapsulates having a pause for thought. May be the stimulus preventing deterioration, but not boosting a rebound. Lets talk about the stress tests on friday night. We got the good and the bad. I turned to my colleagues for analysis and they said it was better than 2011. A lot of people questioning the construction of these tests. Also saying they are not making the assumptions relevant to Market Conditions at the moment. They are modeling for spikes in the Interest Rates rather than the lower for longer environment we are in at the moment. Manus it is the big one, bank of england. Economists we have surveyed are predicting a rate cut. The median expectation is no further quantitative easing. Those are your three big themes. Asian stocks. Climbed andres have rallied. Has the msc ai asiapacific index headed for a sixth day of gains, but some losses on the shanghai composite and china and japan. , and ins on pmis topix lower as well. Retreatingng the yen against the dollar after soaring 4 last week. 103 on dollaryen. Higher yielding currencies heading higher. Has actuallyn rallied to a oneyear high, the strongest level since june 2015. On crude oil,k the year in july. We are seeing crude rising a bit today. We are still below 42 a barrel on wti. We have a glut of crude and fuel supplies at the highest level in two decades. Japans government to reveal details of its latest in 26th those ofthe stimulus since 1990. By mr. E, we are joined yen. Good day to you, sir. Tomorrow we wait for details on the fiscal stimulus. What impact do you think that will have on dollaryen . Many are speculating. Give us your impression. Well, it has been almost already incorporated into the markets so that when the announcement takes place, i dont think it will have a major impact on the market. I think the yendollar rate will 100 two thet to yen. Do expect us to go through 100 this week . Not this week, but it will probably head towards 100, and maybe in the next month or two, it may break one dollar 100. Current stimulus is priced into the market, we have also seen the bank of japan say they will review the impact of stimulus so far. Do you think of therefore we are at the pause point, no more negative rates . What do you think this review my produce . Why do you think they have gone into review mode rather than more stimulus . Well, watching how things takedeveloped, the boj may drastic moves in september, but the easing was relatively small, smaller than the market expected. The Market Reaction i would say of japancent Bank Decision was disappointment. Can you give us your thoughts on helicopter money . Japan do to see helicopter money or are they doing it already . Like the wordt helicopter money. Quantitative easing of the Monetary Policy is probably what governor kuroda is aiming at at this moment, but i think the boj has eased the Monetary Policy continuously for the last two years, and i think the limit of or the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy has weakened somewhat. Manus the impact of Monetary Policy governor kuroda is expecting something from the fiscal side. Manus lets talk about the fiscal side. 26th fiscal stimulus since the 1990s, what is the right combination of fiscal stimulus to really move japan back towards 2 inflation target . All, movingst of back to 2 inflation target is extreme a difficult. I think reaching 1 is probably what governor kuroda once at this moment. Literally satisfied with the current condition of the japanese economy. Governor kuroda does not have any sense of crisis in the japanese economy. Should he abandon the of relation target . Well, i have never talked with mr. Corrode about this exact question, but my feeling is governor kuroda does not really think beating 2 inflation target is possible. I think he is satisfied with 1 . Target was the old authorities tried to lower the inflation rate from 4 to 2 . Raising the inflation rate from zero, i dont think governor kuroda thinks it is absolutely necessary. I think he is satisfied with 1 . Manus should we get used to pardon . Manus no, go ahead. Well, go ahead. Ask a question. Think, sir, he is happy with 1 inflation, so we need to see as stimulus package . Give us the details of what you think it should look like . Governor kuroda has been easing the Monetary Policy during the course of the last two years and has had some impact. As i said earlier, the impact of the Monetary Policy has been weakened. Governor kuroda has implicitly been staying stimulus on the fiscal side is necessary. Stimulus, i dont have any exact number what should be problem with the japanese fiscal side is that accumulated fiscal deficit is huge. Continuing on the fiscal stimulus side is not really that easy. 1 is the achievable number, fiscal stimulus is , what is thedo robust response for japan if we have run to the end of the road on Monetary Policy and you seem to question the ability to continue fiscal response. That takes us to structural reform. Has abenomics failed . Well, i dont think so. Growth rate of the japanese 1 , and i close to think they are expecting a 1 growth rate for this year. I think it is quite satisfactory. Abenomics in the past has succeeded and has not failed, i think. Thank you for joining us. Great to get your thoughts this morning. Joining us there from tokyo. Offeredaudi arabia has 4 billion in loans to banks to ease liquidity restraints. We have a chart, take us through the numbers. Good morning. Good morning. Here is the deal. Puttingl prices are pu pressure on liquidity. Have a closer look at this chart i have crafted for you, which hows the interbank rate and has been built gradually. You are looking at an increase of almost 45 year to date. We understand that the Saudi Arabian monetary agency, the country central bank, has taken measures in terms of providing shortterm loans to ease those liquidity restraints. According to two people familiar with the matter, that came to 50ne of 15 billion billion. As wellnd is sputtering and saudi arabia. The economy is showing signals of stress. The government and policy makers going to take additional measures to mitigate those risks. Thank you very much. Euing up, we look at the Bank Stress Tests and which cracks to remain. Onus we have the details china pmi numbers. William dudley is not ruling out a hike this year. This is bloomberg. Welcome back. This is countdown. 6 46 a. M. In london. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Merge with didi chuxing. That is according to people familiar with the matter. They say the new company will be vita 35 billion. 35ill be valued at billion. Heineken reports profits that Beat Estimates and reiterated its year on year profit expansion forecast. Adjusted earnings before toerest and taxation grew 1. 7 one billion euros. At 7 30speak to the ceo a. M. U. K. Time. Sony shares rise after a surprise First Quarter profit of 205 million. Analysts were expecting a 380 million loss. In the Playstation Division outweighed the impact of the earthquake, which shut the main manufacturing site for digital camera sensors. Hungrychinas most takeover groups is scaling back. Fosun group has snapped up assets over the past few years, but now focused on getting leaner. The ceo spoke to Bloomberg Television in shanghai. We have ample capability to get investmentgrade rating, so either strategically or is clear thatsun this has become our strategy. Manus that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you very much. Manus thank you very much. Of the 51 lenders in the Bank Stress Tests, and italian bank was the only bank to have its moodyswiped out, but says the Overall Results show most european banks are resilient under adverse conditions. Now fromare joined frankfurt, great to have you on the program. What were the hurdles we were looking for . Is it all about the Tier One Capital ratio . The common equity Tier One Capital ratio, precisely. The minimum in europe is 4. 5 , so if you were below that, and there were two banks that were. It looked really bad. There was this 5. 5 benchmark, being below that would not be comfortable either. Investors were telling us we want to see 200 basis points on top of that 5. 5 to feel comfortable with these these banks. Banksare fewer than 10 that came under 7. 5 , and those banks may be under pressure to do more expanding to investors on how they plan to raise capital. Manus a lot of people ,uestioning the robustness rising Interest Rates and a world of negative Interest Rates, many debates saying scenarios were not tough enough. It is a good question. Have both the banks and the banks critics complaining of the stress tests about it inc. To soft in one area and to ough, they must of been doing something right. Of the gdp scenarios were more beneficial, but if you were a big Investment Bank or a bank with a big Interest Income ofendency, you saw a lot pain in there because of the legal risks you had to factor in , because of the slump in trading revenues, and on top of that you have the issue of Interest Rates, which cuts two ways. They wont allow the banks to reprice their deposits as a major funding source, so to pay higher deposit rates while not making money on Interest Income, the negative Interest Rate factor while not reflected, certainly could have been easier on the Interest Rate front. Anna you are talking to us from frankfurt. How did Deutsche Bank do . There has been concern about the tiant and austrian lenders. People were focused on how dojo bank would fare. How Deutsche Bank would say her. A lot of people are worried and want to see progress there. The good news for Deutsche Bank is they did not do so badly after all. Toir capital ratio did fall one of the 10 lowest, but the actual delta, the change in the capital ratio, was less than the average for the banks, so other banks did worse on that front. The big factor included was litigation. Barclays for example did worse than Deutsche Bank, so are a lot aspeople will be taking this something to have comfort with an speed to investors about the progress they are making. Line underill draw a it there. That was the latest. Lets bring in james ferguson. Thank you for joining us. Were they tough enough . They were tougher than last time. It was impossible not to be, but not tough enough. Remember that when they are doing stress tests, they are doing it backwards. We work out how stressful and environment we can impose on the banks while still most of them pass, just. That is what we did this time. Instead of analyzing and say most of them passed, you should say how stressful could we make it while they still survive. The answer is the cumulative credit risk and loan loss rate over three years had in general imposed upon them because there are bank by bank variation, the losses the banks took over all was 350 billion euros, but you scale that up, about 500 billion euros. Thats about 4 of overall loans outstanding at the peak before we went into the downturn. If you compare that to the u. S. , the worst three years, they were suffering closer to 8 cumulatively over that time of loan losses. So this stress test is twice as stressful as the first test on the european banks. It is only half as stressful as what actually happened to the american banks at behind of their stress. I would say we are halfway through. If you talk about pass and fail, if you look at the leverage ratio, there are so many banks, american, german, french, dutch banks that are one or two basis above the 3 , and even that is way too low. Anna you do a lot of comparisons back to the previous crisis, but are we in danger of preparing for previous crises rather than the next . Some have suggested stress test that involve lower for longer rates. Talk about what happens to banks if the Interest Rate persists. In my opinion, this is still the same crisis. We can look at what they have done to date, 6 loan loss rate, and add 4 , that takes them to 10 . The american banks are already at 14 . They are way behind the curve no matter how you want to look at it. On the net income interest point, i thought it was an encouraging sign that they put some penalty on that Interest Income. Americanok at the banks, net Interest Income rose throughout the crisis. Do you expect more Capital Raising and more coco s to be issued. So far thisied 3 year, but 15 from that low point. Do you think we will see more cocos. You look at that chart, you can see the selloff started around middecember, then it really started to motor away. What happened around middecember was the ecb had a , which waspaper basically saying banks ought to reveal more about the state of nonperforming loans. Everyone thinks they might be forced to tell us how bad things are. Now we have had a stress test designed to the opposite, so if thes the net here zenith of sentiment, this is probably chinasp next, manufacturing mystery, white to gauges are headed in different directions. This is bloomberg. Perform m. I. Payne. Splinter in july as the official and manufacturing measures. They head in different directions. New york has built doubly says investors are underestimating the pace of tightening this year and next. An uber hits a 35 billion ride with didi. And the u. S. Firm has said to be merging with the rail hailing service in the country. Welcome this monday, im manus. We had lots to think about in japan on friday. We had the stress test. Have a look at how the futures are set to open up. A little Risk Appetite setting the market over into the Asian Session into ours. Manus were on hold in china. Those european stress test says a. I. G. Issue is with xter at 1 . Da london indicate 6 . Asian stocks up to their sixth day emerging markets. The risk radar and shows you where we beat them. It hit 102 on friday. We spoke to mr. Yen. He thinks that actually governor kuroda and friends are actually quite happy with inflation. Thats one of the headlines. He doesnt think that urbanomincs has been a failure. The change in marks is the weak gross number thats led to raining back of an Interest Rate hike. Which boost some of these emerging markets . Manus coming in at 50 of the estimates really shifted the dial in terms of the perspective for the bond market. 10year Government Bond in the United States rising. Weve got this rising equity market at falling prices rising. Hedge funds under treasurey beats. They are at a threeyear high. Net long are the threeyear hike. They dropped ever so slightly. Japanese Government Bonds as you see on the back of waiting for the 26th grand stimulus since the 1990s in japan. Thats what were waiting for negative 1. 3 . On the fiscal front. Heres heidi. Heidi thanks, ana. Investors are estimating how much the Interest Rates will rise. Theyll probably rise slower than previous thought. Thats according to william dudley. Investors said by the end of this year are 13 and the odds of an increase only slightly better than even. Uber will merge its China Business. Thats a dominant rad hailing service in the country thats ople familiar with the company. Uber will continue to upgrade its app in the u. K. A weark economic prospects following the break that vote demand. Hats according to ey u. K. He outlook drew a picture of gloom which may prompt the bank of england to add stimulus. The markets have recovered from the shock of brexit. But strength inside the e. U. , trade and globalization may threaten growth. Hes optimistic about a turnaround in trade. Trade has turned into a drag from a boost. And with the problems looking forward with implied by brexit and the need for the u. K. To renegotiate trade deals, the opposition to the immediate passage of the t. P. P. , the trance pacific partnership, the likely delay in the tea tip between the u. S. And europe, its hard to be optimistic about trade turning around. Heidi saudi arabia has said to offer shorts shortterm learns to help with liquidity. People familiar with it, said the Central Banks made the money available in june. Lenders are facing a cash squeeze as the government withdraws deposits and upsets the kingdoms deficit. And jason bond has topped the box office. The matt damaen movie raked in 60 million defeating other new cormes defeating bad moms and nerve. The movie marked his return to the role after he skipped the bond legacy in 2012. Global new, 24 hours a day, 2600 journalists i should say and seen more than 120 countries. You can find out more stories on the bloomberg app. This is bloomberg. Anna heidi, thank you very much for that update. Were just getting some news coming out of nurenex. Ading has been halted in all derivatives products. Well keep an eye and see what further detail we get. Lets head over to the Asian Session and see how thats been going. July yet salley has information for us. A pretty good start for the trading week. We are seeing most parnt markets higher. Down by around 1 . We did, of course, have this mixed read on the p. M. I. For july. The government rate falling the private sector gauge rising and the asian market still coming under pressure particularly on these concerns with wealth manage pickup truck. Looking very good by 1. 10 . Investors there focusing on the small positive read of chinese p. M. I. We also had Beat Estimates that were still down 4. 5 in the month of the july. Most Southeast Asian markets are doing very well. Jakarta a frontrunner there. And japans any kay index has losed at. 4 of 1 . Of course, as you were mentioning at the top of the show investors further details of the 26th stimulus plan from japan. Australia closing in at. 4 by 1 . Led some good games in commodity and the iba could cut Interest Rates to record lows to 1 1 2 percent. Its being closed for about an hour now. Having a look at those casino stocks which certainly did Beat Estimates there. Theyre a little bit mixed. Galaxy and sams looking strong and in terms of earnings, sony beating the streak with 205 million. Analysts were expecting a lot about 380. N. E. C. Closing down at 11 . Equity markets and emerging market are higher this as investors wait a stimulus from australia and as you mo the bank of england and furrer information from the bank of japan too. Anna and manus. Manus they say that all derivative products have halted trading. All orders have been removed except for g. T. C. They say the cash products continue to trade as normal. Theyre working resolve the issue. Theyll up date us as soon as they possibly can. And this is due to a technical issue at the moment. Lets talk about some of the onflicting data weve had. In july, the governments rating slipped while the kei chen rised last year. Malcolm, good to speak to you again. Give us your thought the clear take awhat from this as we look to conflicting issues on the public versus the private manufacturing assessment. We can say that things are not getting worse. It looks like the government stimulus is leaving the economy in this sort of Holding Pattern which means its compensating for some of the sluggishness were seeing. One of the details in the governments official p. M. I. , the one that was a big soggy, it showed that new export orders were weakening. Thats yet another indication along with some sluggish career data, yet another indicated that the chinese economy isnt going to get any help from external demands. Its no help inner the economy. So these domestic drivers needing to take over and thats what seems be happening. Thats one of the explainers some of the economists put towards the kia schenn index. Many some of those cold be potentially focused. It wasnt that bad realy. Thats the other thing to look at. The services most of which looks a the domestic economy it perked up. So another sign in chinas resilience. Thats been the continuing theme. They make up more than half of chinas economy. And its a huge thing to offer them overlook of the old perceptions of china. Services still remaining strong yet another sign that this moderate stablization in the economy is continuing into the second half. This first rating of july seems to tell us. Malcolm scott, in hong kong. Joining us now in the studio, we lee. Very good to see you on the program. Thanks for being with us. Lets get your thoughts on what were seeing in china at the moment. I know your view on the Macro Economic data has been relatively resilient. Stimulus ion, the preventing china from collapsing but not driving a whole extra deal of growth. Is that your assessment . We have seen them with a zigzag when and we do see stimulus coming through and this is a ma tern that weve seen for quite a few years now and in regards to the die version as taishim p. M. I. This is why we see the drop in external demands. Im hoping theyll be domestic indicators. It was back at the end of last year. From a policy response, i mean, almostying to gate, its like they have a whole new policy respect. And there is this wave of stimulus to come again. Its not the baseline. Since 2009. I think we need to separate china from the other develop markets in Central Banks. I think after the bress it vote for expectation in response to the bress it vote. Where in china they have their own domestic growth pattern that they would respond to. Nled necessarily wouldnt necessarily say that they would respond to this. But we think they would cut rates but it is not a surprifmentse i think its slightly priced. But the interesting thing is that they actually chose to wait and see rather than immediately act. D the same can be said about e. C. B. Bank of japan did just that. They did some kind of side dish. And its not the main thing that people are focusing on. Its something to know. Talking about japan again. What do you expect to head that would move it. Is it all about fiscal stimulus is the new spin. Well get more details about that tomorrow. Hes not going to do anything. Or do we need to see the arrow landing . Last 28 trillion yen is very sizable and more sizable than many people expected and it was announced earlier as experted as well. But the details will matter a huge am in terms of how much of that is new. Probably 28 trillion will be money. And the rest of them will be in the form of language. Break re they going to this down. And how theyre going to found it will be hugely porn. We are seeing this greater chief towards fiscal policy for the two to act in conjunction with each other for them to be that. And then i just spoke to kaki barra. He said i dont think this fiscal stimulus will have any major impact on dolla jen. A lot of the expectation is already priced. But what he does want to say 2 is probably not attainable. 1 should be tagged on inflation for kuroda. Do we need to expect it in terms of inflation targets. In japan, definitely it would glee the trajectory has been lower than they say that they were going to achieve but they have not dramatically lowered down because of their own expectation with inflation trajectory. And the reality is as long as they speak to that target that would keep expectations high as as intense active interactive. Productivity is low. You want to get inflation down. But when youre talk about one or two inflation and youre trying to boost infligse get it higher. He said it doesnt matter. He should be happy with one. Well, right now he should be happy with one. Ut they have not really extend the time horizon over which they could expect to achieve the 2 inflation target. And the reason why i didnt adjust it is to keep the markets continue to expect more on the easing front. We lee stays with us. Tying times. Why he investors are under estimating him. The chances of great heights. Welcome back, everybody. This is countdown. 1. 37. D fairly flat, it looks like well be stronger across the European Equity markets. Heres Juliette Salley in hong kong. Juliette thanks, ana. Shushi l move with gigi ng. Uber will continue to operate its own knapp china for now. Heineken has reported profits that base analysts in the first half and reit rate on the profit margin expansion. The worlds Third Largest brewer id adjusted earnings rose to 1. 17 euros. The company is repaired for a u. K. Recession. And well speak with the u. F. O. And on the move at 7 30 a. M. U. K. Time. After the Company Posted a surprise First Quarter project of 205 million. 00 million ting a 3 loss. It shot the main manufacturing sight the digital camera images senses. Nintendo has fan again. Go, deprop the top of the appear. In japan, last week posted their biggest decline in more than two decatesdz. Pokemon goes go has said it that doesnt expect a major earnings boost from the app. Sonic shares have plunge after the world quarter earnings on friday. He feel from the same area a year agoier. They plan. Its hired seven banks to look into the style of five, seven, and 10year notice. One of chinas take over hungry group is scailing back its buying spre. Or the past fete years. That. Now focused on i believe we have ample capability to get Investment Grade rating. So either strategically, its crystal career that this has become our strategy. And that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus now investors are underestimating how much times the u. S. Central bank will raise Interest Rates this year and next. But they are probably about the pace more than previously thought. Almost dudley by tend to the year put them at 1. 3. The only slightly better than. The period in which expectations go over 50 is where your focused and the market is saying thats not going to happen until we dont get a rate hike until the end or september 2017. What are your expectations for this year then . I think a lo of the hawkish reprizing has been especially on fridays s on the g. D. P. Rate. Youre talking about the dollar and the probably, and when you digging them. They actually came on the back to redrag. You would want this combat because that is expected to december pate in the second half and that number could be more than 10 two . Did you think app about some of the data. So for example in new home sales, we were and all of that points to an activities trend. They can potentially hike one this year. They are looking at two hikes which is probably too hawkish but they could consider hiking one this year which is not what market is pricing and which is why they could be gives you a thought about how the market under estimating. They said the is that something you take at face value that kind of comment . Well, normally it shouldnt be as significant consideration. Historically the u. S. Election has not been a major influence on the markets. I think it could play a role. Talk about thenearly 150,000. Ive got a couple for you here. This is europe. Europe lags the pp. For the rest of the year. Its really quite remarkable in a sense that they arguably wasnt great for market sentiments. We saw investors putting a lot of crash to work. Exactly as you see here in terms a lot of themance, inflows out of the 50 billion going into global. Earnings surprise which has been rather poverty active. Some people suggest that theyre reluctant by it. Theyre kind of looking at theyre not Getting Compensation putting money in the bank and they cant afford to miss out the rally which is why they have to participate even though they dont fundamentally believe in the story r. Thank you very much. Hes joininging from india investors strategy. Life go back to normal. Nothing to see here then. That will do it for countdown. Theyre be freak to the sock of heineken and lotses to talk about. Have a nice this morning and where they see that going how they seal myself they will get higher at the start of trade. This is bloomberg. Nus welcome to on the move 8 30 a. M. In berlin. We are going to the European Market open. Caroline hyde is in berlin. A mixed message chinas. Actory gauges old engines of growth. We will bring you the figures from france, italy, and germany. Didi. Itches a ride with it will be merging