Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20160715

Very unlikely they settle up from here. Pretty flat, and that is because it has been a good place for a equity investors. Talking about j. P. Morgan, wells fargo, this group has done poorly today. Not bad, but all things considered, earnings were lackluster in terms of being down, but beating estimates. Morgan in the green, citigroup down, wells fargo hurting quite a bit. Day after reporting earnings earlier today. Finally, i like to look at the vix, dropping 6 today. Here of the hours market did not hold up, vix went down again. Under 13 there. We have been watching the bond trade all week as well. Yields, well,ow yields turned around this week. Yield rising0 year 23 basis points. Every day except wednesday we saw yields climb this week. I think it hit a record low of 1. 31, the lowest since the New York Stock Exchange was founded . To look at the spread to see where we are in regards to the 2007 low we hid in the middle of july. We are climbing back from that. This is a one month at the 210 spread. People look at the curve as a sign a recession is coming. This is good news if you see the spread climb. I will look at the british pound, a pretty solid day today. Bad, but on the week over all, up 2 despite some todayss on wednesday and as we continue to try and resolve the brexit situation. Little likeving a to that currency that got hit so bad after the decision to leave the eu. Why are we not talking about the Chinese Renminbi . U. S. Dollar getting stronger and stronger relative to the chinese currency as it continues to get weaker. Right now, the conversation is fading into the background. Because cost 46 to buy a barrel of crude right now. For the week, up 1. 1 . One day this week oil got onshed on wednesday, also july 7. It has not continued the climb it started in june. Ets look at gold it had been climbing through june, especially after the brexit vote. Now it is the first down week since may. To 1328. Over the week lets take a deeper dive into the bloomberg terminal. Oliver, what have you got . Im cheating. I find it fascinating. This before, but i find it important, the difference between equities in emerging markets versus those in the developed world. Right here, you have your mx wo, look at the outperformance, 9. 2 gain in emerging markets versus 2. 2 gain in the developed world markets. This has vacillated throughout the year. In may, we got pretty much in line with each other, and again the emerging markets have taken off. If you want to be an equities and feel pretty good about it, go to the u. S. , but if you want more return, go into emerging markets. I wonder how much outperformance that can take before they start to worry about those stocks getting crowded and expensive. There is a chart that shows the one day changes, where you is also ae hrh fantastic function that i highly recommend to look at movements inside or outside of standard range. Im looking at china credit growth. , if you buy those numbers, then you should not buy into a hard landing scenario. One of the reasons given for chinas float back down to a regular Economic Growth is that a have been putting so much into lending and that they have been spurring credit growth. Credit growth in the last month of 250 billion. Trillion yuan. In the last month, they grew their credit in one month more than the entire comment economy of vietnam or chile. Incredible. Im glad you brought that up. Great story. Growth, but at a certain price, right . Earnings this morning, one of the biggest laggards in the s p 500 today. Second quarter profit fell 2. 8 soured. Energy loans lets jump into what is going on today. If you could talk directly to investors to allay their concerns, what would you say . It always takes a couple of sessions after we report before analysts and investors sort out what Bank Earnings look like. We grew our revenue year over year by 4 in Interest Income and nonInterest Income. Controlled expensive, so positive operating leverage. Our return on equity does quarter was almost 12 , which is at the head of the pack. We have gotten more money to work over the course of the last few quarters. Has been 9 year over year, and more in the bond market as well, as we repair for this lower for even longer scenario that we did not expect. With yields where they are around the world, it looks like there is a ceiling on u. S. Yields for some time. There is a lot to be happy about. Oil losses, they are in check. Things have actually stabilize there. We released reserves on the oil and gas portion of our portfolio. It has a manageable impact. Produce 5. 6 billion of net income in the quarter, 15 quarters in a row above 5 billion. It could be a lot worse. Of money andn wells fargo is a force to be reckoned with for sure. ,ore than any bank we cover loans are a core business here. For some quarters, that is a blessing and investors love that. Quarters, it is different like now when we are in a low yield environment and you are not making as much money off those loans as investors would like to see. Will this continue to be difficult . Is this going to be a problem for wells fargo . I dont think it is loans creating that outcome. Half of our revenue is from Interest Income, where we have about 950 billion worth of loans, the largest lender. Loans breads have stabilized in the quarter, yields have not dropped quarter to quarter. The challenges what to do with the extra cash, keeping cash on deposit at the fed or add to our securities portfolio at these lower entry points, what does that mean for the earnings and out orders . The whole sector has to grapple with that if are going to be below 175 on the 10 year as a benchmark. To go back to the point about energy, because some of the default rates there and overall stress in that sector weighed on results this quarter. Im wondering if you could give not just in on how, the energy space, but whether that credit stress will spread to other parts of the market. I was talking to a strategist saying i want to look at the asdit cycle, default rates my core indicator for the economy. Is there a risk that defaults will be picking up . Does that concern you at all . Right now i would say in energy that defaults are higher than they were a quarter ago. Accounting, the allowance process allows you to look into the future and set aside provision for that, so no worse than we would have expected them to be. We look carefully at Consumer Risks and other commercial risks in the same communities where a lot of local gdp and local employment is leveraged to the any industry. There, things were better than average for a few years up until the Fourth Quarter of 2014, when Commodity Prices started to turn lower. They are more average. On the consumer side, more average, not much worse than average, although if unemployment picks up in those areas or remains in those areas, you might expect them to get worse. Commercial real estate is a little more idiosyncratic by andet in terms of vacancy what the other uses are, places like houston, where our lot of office would have been set aside, hotel space for people coming in and participating in the energy business, but every market treats that differently. Our overall losses are 39 basis points on average loans, which we would take forever. It is lower than what we would expect on average through the cycle. If you take out the oil and gas names, it is 28 basis points of losses on loans. That is really low and very attractive, so that stress one might expect is not spreading. Consumer credit risk is in good shape overall, even commercial real estate risks, while we could imagine more risks in the future based on overbuilding or local concerns, theyre not being exhibited in loan portfolios today. Me ask you about the state of the consumer. We got positive Economic Data today about the consumer. You are entrenched with the consumer as far as mortgages, auto loans, how do you see the u. S. Consumer strength right now . I would say pretty strong. That jobs report last week was a reminder that a reminder of that. , asother is the gdp growth lackluster as it has been, we are happy to have. Home purchasing stronger on stronger jobs, affordability based on what rates are. ,uto sales have been strong loan originations, and the performance of the loans has been good too. The cash in the bank, the value in the market, the employment situation, the deleveraging that has taken place, it all adds up to a good picture in the u. S. All right, a good picture. Thank you for coming. Outreaking news right now of turkey, reports of shots the countrys Prime Minister is speaking and saying that there was an uprising within the army ranks. ThePrime Minister sang uprising is now being sorted. He is also saying that it cannot turkishd a coup and the government will not allow a that could harm democracy to succeed, so the Prime Minister is tvaking right now to in television and we are getting headlines crossing on his report of a military uprising. One of the market moves in the last few minutes of trading was in the main turkey etf that trades here. You can see it here. It was more than 3 at one point, now recovered to 2. 5 . We also saw the turkish currency about 3. 4 weakening versus the dollar and the turkish currency. That that isto say a much bigger move. There you go, right there, 30 basiss points points on average per day. We will continue to follow these headlines out of turkey. The turkish Prime Minister tsonga has been an uprising in the military ranks, helicopters, gunfire. He says it is due to them suppressing that uprising. You cannot call it a coup, he says. This is bloomberg. Whatd you miss . We begin with the developing story, the turkish Prime Minister says a group within the military has engaged in an uprising of some sort. He says they cannot be called a coup. There are reports of military jets flying over the turkish capital with military vehicles blocking bridges in istanbul. Media reports said ambulances were seen in front of the Turkish Military headquarters. Tv has been shut down. Follow thisinue to developing story and bring you more news when available. President obama has addressed the terror attack in france, comments coming as he hosted a diplomatic reception in the white house. I spoke to the french president earlier today, and in addition to conveying deep , i reminded him that france is americas oldest ally and one of our strongest. We go freedom to each other. Americans and french have stood together for two centuries. I said we will stand united now. Mark the president signed a proclamation honoring the victims of the attack in nice. It calls for flags on federal properties to be lowered to half staff until sunset on july 19. A french prosecutor is providing details, of the 84 People Killed , 10 were children or teenagers. He puts the number of wounded at 202, with 25 on life support and 52 in critical condition. He says the investigation is at an early stage and confirms the police are questioning the exwife of the suspect. Of ag classified portion congressional inquiry concludes that Saudi Arabian nationals connected to the government may have aided some of the september 11 hijackers in the u. S. For they carried out their attacks. The newly declassified document before they carried out the attacks and identifies individuals who help the hijackers get apartments, open bank accounts, and get fight lessons. The saudis deny the allegations. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Thanks, mark. Whatd you miss . Weather may be contributing to a more robust economy. Saless. Consumer boosting of building materials, gardening equipment, and gasoline. What else is behind the healthy gain . Lets ask our next guest, michelle gerard. Numbers oninflation par to above, retail numbers above, so is all well in the u. S. Economy . It certainly suggests that ahead of brexit that we were on solid ground. Confirmation of a reacceleration after a does disappointing performance in the First Quarter. Looking for Consumer Spending to be up 4. 5 in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, close to 3 . Surprising when you look at the strength in income growth, low gasoline prices, consumer fundamentals are strong and continues to be a bright spot. The question is what happens going forward. Uncertainty associated with brexit and the u. S. President ial elections made the businesses to be more cautious and the hiring pace will slow, and so some of the strength in the Consumer Sector may wane in the second half of the year. To jump on one of those points, the health of the u. S. Consumer, i dont think there is a lot of people who would say things are terrible or bad, but forthe numbers good enough the tailwinds the consumer has right now . Well fore going pretty the average american in terms of cheaper oil, all these trends that have been favorable to the u. S. Economy. You are exactly right. If you look at all the things the u. S. Consumer sector has going for it, you could be looking at a spending pays on a sustained basis of at least 4 , and that is not anywhere close to where we have been trending. That is because to a large extent consumers have been cautious in the wake of the financial crisis. We have seen Savings Rates raised. They have not spent all of their windfall from lower gasoline prices. Theyre not even spending all of the money they are bringing home from their jobs. They are running higher Savings Rates than you would expect. This is exactly as you say, the consumer is doing well, a bright spread spot for the u. S. Economy, but you can see some cautionary behavior that in part explains why the u. S. Economy is still modeling around at 2. 5 expansion pace. We have to jump to breaking news. Thank you for joining. Have breaking news as we told you about out of turkey, reports of shots fired and helicopters flying overhead, the Prime Minister saying that it was because of an uprising within the army ranks that was being quelled. ThePrime Minister says uprising is in the process of being thwarted, but it is not a coup. We will head now to istanbul, turkey. Have you heard helicopters there, gunfire there . I certainly heard helicopters, yes, thats right. I was having dinner in a busy part of istanbul as the news came on. A lot of people sat up and walked home with helicopters overhead, so, yes, a developing situation. What all these pieces at up to, we are still trying to work out. The Prime Minister spoke on national television, but said there had been some kind of uprising. He did not use the word coup, although other people are. It looks like we are getting breaking news. Placeks like it is taking with gunshots heard near the. Residential palace can you give us any idea, do we know where this is happening and what spurred this at all . It is happening in a number of different places around turkey. The two main bridges were shot the first of that many people heard of this. They were shut by the army. Turkey does have a history of coos, a series of military coups , but we have had a stable government for the last 1314 years, so everyone thought that was behind them. The this will be Prime Minister says we will not let them do what they are trying to do. Successful orl be not is another story. Something is happening, gunshots city,in the center of the and i think the army might have given some kind of statement. The situation is developing fast and i will tell you as i know more. Im seeing a fresh headline here that says Turkish Armed forces are saying they have taken control of the country. That is very ambiguous. How heavy is the army or military presence in istanbul already on a daily basis . It used to be very visible, the army a huge part of public life. Saw theirlly, they role as keeping the democratically elected government of the day in check. This government came to power in reining saw its role as in the army, and they seem to have done that successfully, the certainly not a visible part of public life and politics. Suddenly we hear the army is taking guns off the police on the bridge, so it sounds like there is some sort of oppositional movement going on. We hope you stay safe. There on the phone from istanbul. To follow the headlines of a military uprising in turkey. Get ready for the rio Olympic Games by switching to xfinity x1. Show me gymnastics. X1 lets you search by sport, watch nbcs highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. Im getting ready. Are you . X1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversals coverage of the rio Olympic Games. Call or go online today to switch to x1. Mark lets get to first word news. We continue to follow the developing story out of turkey. They have taken control following reports of gunshots near the president ial palace and after the turkish Prime Minister said a group within the military was engaged in an uprising. That comes from an interview with ntv television. There are reports of military jets flying over the capital with military vehicles blocking bridges in istanbul. We are also hearing that turkish tv has been shut down. We will bring you more developments as soon as we get them. British Prime Minister theresa may is willing to listen to proposals about scotlands future relationship with the european union, commenting in edinburgh. Months british boat to leave the eu, another referendum is highly likely. Brexit referendum, scotlands population voted overwhelmingly to remain in the eu. Northern england, people lined the streets to pay tribute and final respects to joe cox, stabbed and shot to Death Outside a library on june 16. A private funeral was held today. Quarterbackpatriots tom brady wont appeal his fourgame suspension to the u. S. Supreme court to a federal Appeals Court had denied his attempt to get a new hearing on his deflategate suspension. The threejudge panel said that Roger Goodell was within his power when he suspended brady or his role in a scheme to dr. Footballs used in a playoff game. Is big money for von miller of the denver broncos, miller signed a blockbuster 114. 5 Million Contract to stay with denver, including 70 million in guaranteed money and makes him the highestpaid nonquarterback in nfl history. It is a sixyear deal for the super bowl m. V. P. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Thank you. Telling us, turkeys army says it has taken control of the country. Lets check in on what that has done to markets. We saw the main turkey etf that trades in the u. S. Fall earlier before recovering. This is the intraday look at the turkey etf. I dont know if we can get an afterhours look at this etf. It is closing down 2. 5 . It closed below 41, and we are now 39. Dont you blow that up and we will take your screen full . That is a fairly severe drop for the turkish etf. The currency getting crushed, turkish stocks going down across the board as people try to figure out what this means. Its not clear. You have different statements from the turkish army, the Prime Minister, kind of complicated. Most fascinating things as we are getting headlines on the one hand from the Prime Minister, who is saying you cannot call this a coup. There is an uprising within the army. We are currently quelling that uprising, essentially saying the government still has control. On the other hand, a statement from the Armed Forces Saying that we have taken control of the country and say they want to restore freedom and democracy, and and very interestingly they say that they will ensure all International Deals continue to go through, ensuring all international context, and they want to restore good relations with the world, so they are keeping an eye on markets as well or trying to ensure investors that they will continue to allow business and trade to flourish. The statement that theyre going to have good relations, thats a pretty big claim. In the u. S. , just to recap an interesting week, pretty risky feeling of investors as they went into the markets and bought those stocks, but intraday, a little bit of weakness. Surprised when you have markets rallying for five Straight Days amid global uncertainty. Roomtle bit of breathing and taking chips off the table. You have to wonder how those markets would have close if this news had come out before the closing bell. Beforeted to trickle out the closing bell, but was not as severe. Of an explosion near the Turkish Police academy an. It sounds like there is activity in at least two major cities in turkey right now, and we are hearing a he said she said about the government saying they have not achieved a coup, and on the other hand the army saying that they have. Looking at the u. S. Market, down,etf tracking s p 500 so a little selloff as news breaks, but nothing huge at the moment. I think we will move on and talk about politics now. Thats right. This is all politics, isnt it . We are going to talk about u. S. Politics. It is official. Donald has selected mike pence as his running mate, making the announcement on twitter ahead of a News Conference he plans for tomorrow. What does governor pence bring to the ticket here that donald trump may have been lacking . Governor pence brings credibility for donald trump with the segments of the Republican Base that donald trump has struggled with, evangelical christians primarily. Credibility with Movement Conservatives and has a lot of respect among republican elected officials, including paul ryan and mitch mcconnell. Both have raised the pic and have had a contentious so heonship with trump, checks a number of boxes as well because trump who has business expense, but not much political experience. Mike pence has been in the house for 12 years and a one term governor. Spectrum,personality it seems like a silly thing to talk about, but that is Donald Trumps calling card, a bombastic, confident guy. Will mike pence amp that up as well . I dont think so. I dont think you need to people on a ticket who will be donald trump or have a personality like donald trump. Mike pence is quiet, reserved, a midwestern, nice persona. Thatis a personality appeals to certain factions within the Republican Party more so than donald trump. I think the theory was not to pick someone like him, but someone who will complement his weaknesses. Are a number of occasions on which donald trump has made some very confident, bombastic statements that have proven to be untrue later on. Thender if mike pence has same propensity to embellish the truth is donald trump. Madepect that same kind of up mitch is mode to come from him . Tends is a much more colors petition, at the center of the spectrum when it comes to spending versus saying things that are not true. I think we will see more talk about the areas where mike pence and donald trump have disagreed about policy, fundamental centerpiece issues of Donald Trumps campaign, like Donald Trumps proposal to ban muslims from entering the United States. Mike pence call that unconstitutional. Mike pence called for quick adopting of the Transpacific Partnership trade deal, which donald trump has railed against fiercely through his campaign. That is another disagreement we will hear about. It is not entirely uncommon for a Vice President ial pick not to ci to eye with the president on everything. Eye with see eye to the president on everything. And supportingce donald trump all along or not backing ted cruz . Mike pence estate neutral until april, the primary that not ted cruz out of the race. Pence endorsed ted cruz technically in a radio interview, but it was such a tepid endorsement, and he praised donald trump during that same interview as well. That mike pence was hedging his bets, maybe he wanted to be considered for the ticket and that was his calculus. I want to talk about where this puts him in terms of positioning for his sort of making it clear where he is on the political spectrum, right, left. Trumps look at donald policies, there are a lot of things throughout the republican primary where he looked like the least conservative compared to his peers. Does his choice set up more approval amongst the republicans or bring in people in the middle who might like Donald Trumps views and policies . That donaldorrect trump cannot be easily placed on a leftright spectrum. Donald trump took a number of positions that were arguably to of republican elected officials. Mike pence is much more of a Traditional Movement conservative republican. He has been within his partys mainstream on a number of issues, but also during the bush era, he voted against a number of initiatives from the right, the Medicare Part d Prescription Drug program, no child left program and tarp bank bailouts, so hes not shy to oppose leadership when he thinks they are not being conservative enough. That is what his Guiding Light has been, to stay in the good graces of social conservatives and movement fiscal thinkvatives, and i donald trump has weaknesses in that area and will try to fill those gaps with his lies president ial running mate. Thanks a lot. We continue to follow that developing story out of turkey, Armed Forces Say they have taken control of the country. This reports that follows reports of gunshots knew the president ial palace in the capital, and a group within the military was accused of taking part in an uprising. That comes from an interview with ntv television. There are reports of turkish and flying over the capital military vehicles blocking bridges in istanbul. All of the flights out of istanbul are now canceled after these events. Something isas if brewing there, and indeed we are hearing different reports from the army than we are from the government right now in turkey. Troubling to say the least, especially if you are a holder of etfs. A lot of those are being sold in afterhours trade. Drop in the turkish etf at its worst level in the afterhours trades. Those shares are now down 6. 25 . The currency losing more than 4 against the dollar. , aelieve it has gone over big drop their for the currency. As this number gets green and gets higher, the turkish currency weakens against the stronger u. S. Dollar, which you can use to buy more turkish currency than before. We will continue to follow headlines for you. This is bloomberg. To thes get back developing news out of turkey. Turkeys Prime Minister says a group within the military has engaged in an attempted coup. The armed forces are saying they have actually taken control of the country. Lets go to Mark Crumpton with more. Mark thank you so much. At joined by Nicholas Burns the Hoover Institution at stanford university, a former u. S. Undersecretary of state. Ambassador, thank you for your time. I understand i am putting you on the spot because these events are fluid. I would like to get your thought on the events in turkey. We know very little about what is happening in turkey. Saysurkish Prime Minister the government is in control, but an email from the Turkish Military says it is in control. It is not entirely surprising, the relationship between the Turkish Military and the government has been tense and distrustful for many years. Thee are elements in Turkish Military that see themselves in essence as the islamans of a secular developed in the 1920s and 1930s. That could be a possible exploitation expo, but there are many others. President has relaxed turkeys relationship with russia and israel, and it may be some unhappiness about that. This is speculation until we know more about the situation on the ground. Mark we have an air base in turkey. We have a very important airbase in turkey for operations against the islamic state. Turkey is one of our most important nato allies, one of the most important militaries in the entire nato alliance. It is contiguous to the middle east and the russian federation, so what happens there is that major importance to the United States. Mark sir, what happens if this unfolds attempting to take control of the government . What will that mean for stability and the region and for the United States . Im sorry. It is impossible to answer the question. We dont know what their intentions are, whether they want to reestablish a secular islamic regime in turkey. We dont know whether there is unhappiness over what is happening in syria and the war against islamic state. Another big issue in turkey itself is the role of the kurds and the long struggle of the turkish government and military have had against the pkk, the main line kurdish separatist peers so it is just speculation at this point as to what would happen. For countriesking that are vital to the National Security interest of the United States, turkey is among those countries, at the top of the list worldwide. Given all the things we do with the turks in state,ht against islamic but also within the larger view of what we do in nato. Mark lets switch to the terror attack in these. In nice. Those injured are said to be in critical condition, some on life support. I question to you would be, why france . Suffered thishave third major terrorist attack in the last year and a half. You know the big drama in france is that there are many young men who are muslim, who feel disaffected from the french state and the french nation and have chosen a life of terrorism. Hatefule despicable, acts and all of us have to condemn them. I think president obama spoke very well today in aligning ourselves with france and the french people and their struggle. The great majority of muslims who live in france are peaceful, many of them citizens of the french republic, and yet this small group of men are wreaking havoc in the lives of the french citizens. Whether this man was a disciple of the islamic state, whether he acted completely on his own, it is unknowable right now. The french authorities do not know enough to ascertain the motives behind this attack, but it does raise two big points. President obama has been saying, we have to band together in eventually together internationally. It may take years or a decade or more to fight it, so we have to have intelligence, military, and political relations altogether to fight this longterm threat. Mark sir, you talk about all of us being together, but as you mentioned, these attacks keep happening in france. Seemss to say that there to be a weakness in the French Military infrastructure or intelligence infrastructure . Certainly there are many questions that were left after the last two terror attacks in paris. Say in thisrly to particular attack, because if this was indeed a loan wolf attack, the french are saying this person did not have a terrorist record. He had a record as a petty criminal. It is very difficult to defend against an attack like this. The frenchit use all president and president obama emphasizing longterm cooperation, to put in a set of all the longterm, but knowing thattimes when the the terrorist will break through as they did yesterday in nice. Mark it is always a pleasure to get your thoughts and expertise. Thank you for your time. Interview, great to get his thoughts on the developing story. There is a lot going on right now with the developments in turkey. Sang thesh President Army statement was not authorized by army command and the turkish government is denying that a coup has been getessful as we continue to reports of gunfire in the capital and in istanbul. We will stay on top of that story for you, and great to hear Nicholas Burns talking about his thoughts on the tragedy that happened overnight in nice, france. A lot of geopolitical stress. It is incredible that this is all happening. A had brexit, nowhere near tragedy, but geopolitical stress, uncertainty. From a be interesting markets perspective and finance perspective how they will react to this. Especially as this is happening on a friday night here. We will continue coverage of breaking events and talk about mining stocks and metals. This is bloomberg. Whatd you miss . Are following the equities rally. A ninemonth high this week as hopes of centralbank stimulus sent prices to the highest in more than a year. Isour next guest says now the time to go net long commodity stocks. Lets jump right into the call. Why now . We dont think you should get long metals. We think you should be shorting metals. Thes deal stocks will have good quarters because you have had a good increase in prices. The impetus of this move is anticipation of helicopter money in japan. Over the past 18 months, stimulus has not driven Commodity Prices higher, yet thats what most investors are playing now. The metals,to short the underlying commodities, but what about the mining stocks . Again, the massive run in the mining stocks is driven by expectations of stimulus. Stimulus has not driven Commodity Prices higher. If you look at the fundamental backdrop, data out of china, dad, andxport data if you look at the data in the u. S. , msci Service Center shipments, down. Car demand in the u. S. Is rolling over, so a number of data points are hinting towards weaker demand, and there will be incremental supply. We have near record high exports of steel. Fundamentals, the prices are going to take a big hit and it will happen soon. Commodities year to date doing well, coming off their lows. Postbrexit, they have retreated a little bit despite a risk on attitude in other markets. What does that tell you . The market is playing commodities on the assumption you will have global stimulus. Instance, japanese helicopter money, japan is talking about a rumored 100 billion, only 2. 4 of gdp. China extended one train dollars of incremental credit in the First Quarter and it only brought them to quarters of good data. Its like trying to kill an elephant with a flyswatter. We think it will not work. The robots are driving inflows of money into stocks, causing people to cover shorts. Investors are taking their money out of mutual funds. We dont think this is a fundamental move. Arehink fundamentals highghting that Commodity Prices are on edge. We think prices will come down soon. You got it. Fascinating stuff. Reuters reporting that the turkish president says he is safe, his office saying he is mark on the show tonight, Donald Trumps new move new running mate, but first, the world is grieving again after a night of horrific violence in nice, and reports of a coup in turkey. People were84 killed and more than 200 injured when a truck plowed into a crowd salivating bastille day