Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140718

Just why was that malaysia air flight flying over such a dangerous area and what has been the policy of all airlines that fly internationally with so many hotspots across the globe . We have phil lebeau standing by. Hes been looking into that. And for anyone who travels, you may be surprised about where airlines have been willing to go, at least until yesterdays tragedy. Then back in corporate america, two developing stories. Time warner trading above rupert Murdo Murdochs 85 offer, which was rejected. So, what does that say about what wall street thinks is going to happen next . Somebody thinks were going to get a deal. Yep, for sure. But at a higher price. Also, fedex higher today, despite being indicted by the u. S. Government, accused of being a drug mule for illegal pharmacies, saying fedex is knowingly shipping drugs to dealers and addicts. Well look at the governments case. All right, lets get you caught up on the markets. Weve essentially, as michelle was highlighting, done a round turn from yesterdays lows. The dow up 112 points. We were down 160 yesterday, so were most of the way back from that. The nasdaq has recouped yesterdays losses. We were down 62 points yesterday, up 62 points right now. The s p at this hour is trading up 18plus points, gaining back most of what we lost yesterday. Were now at 1,976. Still, the key geopolitical story today was so much uncertainty, the situation with the Malaysian Air passenger plane. Well start with developments there. President obama saying at least one american was on board. We have john harwood there at the white house with the very latest details on all that. John . Bill, weve been wondering since this plane went down whether there were americans on board. Yesterday there was speculation there might be 23. We got the tentative news today from the president that it appears to have been only one, quinn lucas shonsman, a 20something Business School student born in the United States, where his father worked, now in Business School, had been in Business School in the netherlands. And the president used his death and the death of the 297 other people on board along with his u. N. Ambassador, Samantha Power at the u. N. To try to increase pressure on russia to back off in ukraine. We have been very clear from the outset that we want russia to take the path that would result in peace in ukraine, but so far, at least, russia has failed to take that path. Instead, it has continued to violate ukrainian sovereignty and to support violent separatists. It has also failed to use its influence to press the separatists to abide by a ceasefire. Thats why together with our allies weve imposed growing costs on russia. This war can be ended. Russia can end this war. Russia must end this war. Reporter now, the president was given an opportunity at the News Conference today to assign blame directly to Vladimir Putin. He did not do that, said that weve got to wait to get the facts and cant get ahead of those facts. But you can see that once the investigation happens and as a case is built, that it was russian equipment, russian training that led to this shootdown by separatists, which is what the u. S. Government believes, then i think youre going to see the next step in a move to tighten sanctions, make russia pay a higher price, and well see whether its successful in getting them to back off. All right. John harwood there at the white house. Thank you, john. And we go from one geopolitical crisis to another, israel. As we know yesterday, they stepped up their military invasion of gaza. Nbcs Martin Fletcher is in tel aviv. Hes got the latest. Mart martin. Reporter hi, michelle. Hi, bill. Well, israels invasion now is in full force, almost exactly 24 hours after they went in last night. Theyre mainly looking for tunnels along the north, central and southern borders, the Israeli Government said. Those tunnels which lead from gaza into israel which are used to smuggle gunmen inside israel to attack civilians and soldiers here. Well, the israelis say they have found about 21 exits of tunnels. That doesnt mean 21 tunnels. Some of them have multiple exits, but thats an achievement so far, but the israelis say it will take 10 to 14 days to find and destroy all of those tunnels. At the same time, theyre moving very slowly into the urban centers in the north of the gaza strip. You remember, the leaflets, the israelis dropped about 100,000 leaflets on three areas of northern gaza, warning the residents to leave for their own safety. Well, those are the areas where the troops are moving slowly, going house to house, searching schools, mosques, any major any building they come across to find tunnel entrances, rocket launchers, anything to stop the palestinians from firing more rockets into israel. This morning, Prime Minister netanyahu said that israel may extend the operation in order to bring what he called sustained quiet to israeli citizens. Now, thats a pretty general term, sustained quiet. It could be jargon for a longterm, deeper invasion into gaza, or it could just mean ending the immediate rocket threat. Either way, hamas is continuing to fire rockets into israel, despite this massive pressure on them from ground, sea and air. Hamas fired about 80 rockets into israel since the Ground Invasion began. No significant damage in israel and no injuries, although one israeli soldier has been killed since the Ground Invasion began, and about two dozen palestinians killed, too. And the fear, of course, is that the longer the Ground Invasion continues in gaza, the greater the loss of civilian life in gaza. Bill, michelle . All right, nbcs Martin Fletcher. As always, thank you, martin. Great reporting there from tel aviv. Now, yesterday, this all, of course, with these two stories we were following simultaneously, resulted in a rather marked selloff in the markets, but not today. So, lets talk about this comeback for the markets in our closing bell exchange. Steve east from height analytics is with us, kevin caron from stifel, Patty Edwards from u. S. Bank, jeff cox from our own cnbc. Com gang, and rick santelli. I started with you yesterday, rick. Let me start with you today. Yesterday the big selloff, the riskon trades for gold, for oil, for the bonds and so forth, the dollar in some cases. What about today . Has this been a complete reversal or what are you seeing . Well, it hasnt been a complete reversal, but then again, we cant know that for sure. If you look at a tenyear and you see today it did trade up and yield around 2. 5 , that is basically the margin that has been the effects of much of the geopolitical. From the 2. 50 mark into the kind of 2. 45 area, were actually down only three basis poins on the week after settling last week at 2. 52. I think the best way to express this, bill, is theres a lot of things that influence and affect treasury prices and rates. We know most of the major ones. And geopolitics fits in, but it doesnt determine where they are ultimately valued. I think its all of the above, and i think one of the biggest all of the above right now is the next chart. This is tenyear bund yields. They touched 1. 13 today, sold a little off of that. Theyve never traded down this far. And italy, bank of italy cut growth expectations for gdp to 0. 2 . So, to summarize, would we have been here anyway . Maybe not to the basis point, but truly, anybody who wants to be objective on the effects of anything like weather or horrible tragedies or geopolitics in general, this market really was determined in terms of its trading path in the first six weeks of 2014. Yeah, thank you very much, rick. Its so interesting to see stocks move sharply higher today. And yet, that tenyear yields still below 2. 5 . I thought we would have gotten more out of that. Steve, let me ask you, every geopolitical event that we have seen iraq, ukraine, again over and over again, those have all turned out to be buying opportunities. Do you think thats what this is going to be . Were just going to have a oneday selloff here . Yeah, i think so, because as you said, weve seen it over and over again. The geopolitical news comes out. Its riskoff, equities sell off. The markets get a little time overnight to digest, is this really going to move the needle for Global Economic growth or for corporate Earnings Growth . And generally, the answer to that question is no. And so, the next day its risk on and markets recover. And ill point out, we are moving to highs of the day right now. The dows now up 123 points. What about you, Patty Edwards . Does this yet present another buying opportunity or should we be more mindful of some of the risk factors that these geopolitical events are presenting right now . Well, certainly, you have to take into consideration the risks, but that being said, we are still calling for this market to go higher. And so, from that perspective, its a buying opportunity. Ultimately, markets are driven by earnings, and the prices of stocks are going up because the earnings are going up. We expect to see that continue. Were only trading at 17 times our 116 estimate and we expect 2,030 by the end of the year on the s p. Is there nothing that can interrupt those levels . Oh, theres probably a lot of things that could interrupt that, but to interrupt is not to end. Its just to interrupt. And so, we still stand by the what about the Federal Reserve . Could that be the interrupter . It will ultimately be, michelle. Let me throw three quick numbers at you. Stock allocations in part folios at a nineyear high, cash locations at a nineyear low. Outflows from yield funds at a high. So, what does that tell you . It tells you that theres a lot of fear in the market, but the biggest fear in the market continues to be out of the market and to not be a part of this rally until the fed finally exits and until those waves are caused by the fed. I think if you want to look at what the big investing trends are going to be, its just going to be going back to basically stick to your knitting. The two ds, diversification and defensiveness as investors want to stay invested in the market, but theyre getting out of the highrisk stuff. One other thing to throw in, we know that small cap stocks have been getting slaughtered as well. People are just wanting to move up the quality ladder. Although the russell has come back today and is the best performer among major averages right now, interestingly enough. Kevin, where do you stand . Is this a buying opportunity or an opportunity to take some money off of the table . Well, there wasnt much of a buying opportunity, because whatever pullback you had yesterday is gone. In fact, thats indicative of what weve seen in the market the last several months, quarters. Just a market that has been pushing higher and higher. A lot of its been fueled by liquidity, a bounceback in earnings from the trough in 2009. But at this point in time, you look at multiples, and even on forward numbers it looks like the markets probably 10 or so overvalued. So, i think you can still have a pullback just on fundamentals. Ultimately, it is going to be growth in the economy, though. The good news is that most of the data were seeing now in the Second Quarter is suggesting that were going to continue to grow from here. I think the market closes higher than where we are at the end of the year, but i wouldnt be at all surprised to see a pullback. Spreads are tight. Where do you go for return . Im sure you guys saw the journal story today. Their survey of economists do not believe were going to see the growth that we originally expected this year. So, i think that, you know, thats part of the markets worries. And also, you know, how does the fed fit into all that . Does the fed tighten too soon . Does the fed tighten too late . So, just all of these cross currents are going to make people, you know, more and more defensive. Unless bad news is good news. And then the fed becomes easier because of the weak economy. Right. I dont know how far you can go in that trade, but you know, weve certainly been there before. Been years, it feels like. Steve, you said at the beginning that once we look through the geopolitical issues, the market asks, okay, does it move the needle economically for the Global Economy or for earnings . If thats the case, what do you think about the Global Economy at this point . Rick santelli highlighted that theyre ratcheting down numbers in europe again today, and those bank stocks over there have been selling off. Is that a little whiff of trouble, perhaps . Well, i dont think that the problems in europe have really been solved. The european debt crisis has gone from the front burner to the back burner. But here domestically, the one thing that i think is very encouraging is the bank lending data. For three years through january of this year, banks were loaning or increasing the loan book at a 2. 8 annualized rate. The last five months, its been an 8. 1 annualized rate. Bank lending is really picking up. Its bank lending that creates money. The fed with qe creates bank reserves, but real money is created by bank lending. And as money in the economy goes up, nominal gdp should go up and support earnings. Actually get some velocity. Thats it. Youve got to get the money moving. Right. Get that velocity going as well. Right. Thank you all. Appreciate it very much. Thanks for your insights and have a great weekend. All right, 46 minutes to the closing bell. The Dow Jones Industrial average is higher by 124 points. The nasdaq is higher by 67. And the s ps higher by 20. If you werent around yesterday, you were there wednesday and you come back today, its like nothing happened, right . Move along. Nothing to see here. Everythings the same. Be that as it may, jim cramer has a warning for investors, despite todays move to the up side. Listen. Dont be overanxious up here. I think that a better moment to buy stocks awaits. Patience is warranted. All right. Is cramer right . Were going to talk about that, coming up in just a few minutes here. And one of the big geopolitical risks that were talking about, the growing tension between russia and the west after a Malaysian Airplane was shot down over ukraine. Coming up next, former National Transportation safety board chair Deborah Hersman tells us how investigators will piece together who orchestrated this tragedy as we send members of the ntsb over to ukraine. And well see if it points back to Vladimir Putin. Then, in corporate news, time warner shares now trading higher than the rejected offer from Rupert Murdoch earlier this week, but would shares plummet if murdoch withdrew the deal completely, or do investors now believe that time warner has actually been undervalued all this time or its been put into play . Is somebody else going to step up . So much to talk about. Michelle and i look forward to doing that coming up on the closing bell. Stay tuned. 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Gone are the days when they always beat by a penny. Today its the worst performer in the dow after secondquarter earnings came in right in line with expectations. The company says it expects its credit card unit to raise 3. 25 billion in an initial Public Offering later this year. Different story for gilead sciences, moving higher after the price target was raised to 141 a share. Gilead, which will be reporting next wednesday, up 5. 4 on that news. And two Companies Making successful debuts today. Pet insurer truepanion rising as much as 15 after pricing below the estimate for what it was going to be for its offering. Investors betting on the growing demand among pet owners to insure their cats and dogs. Then, there is Terraform Power up 35 after having priced near the top of the range. The company is a spinoff of solar sun edison. And were going to end with the airlines, which are rebounding from yesterdays losses on news of the downing of Malaysia Flight 17 over Eastern Ukraine. United there up nearly 2 on the day. Bill . All right, bertha, thank you very much. As the investigation gets under way, soon, all the investigators are on their way to that part of the world. Question remains, you know, the process is going to be tedious trying to piece together all of the evidence to try and figure out whos responsible for this tragedy. Deborah hersman is the former ntsb, Safety Council president , and she joins us via skype. Its great to have you here. We learned from the president today that investigators from the ntsb are going to go to the site in ukraine to do an investigation. Please bring our viewers into the process. What are they going to do and what do they do, considering the fact that theyre heading to an area thats considered a war zone . Sure. Id say right now its all about logistics, how to get the people on the ground making sure that they have the protection that they need to operate safely and securely once theyre there and that they have the resources or the assets to support them. This is a very wide debris field, potentially 9 miles long, and they have got to be able to track every single piece of that aircraft so they can put it together, because the important parts are going to be the ones that tell them exactly what happened. Typically, the black box, the flight data recorder, all of that is something that everybody covets and goes after, but in this case, will it be as valuable, do you think . You know, i think theres a lot of speculation right now about exactly what happened. A lot of people are coming out with conclusive statements. One thing that the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder allow people to do is corroborate evidence and information. And so, it is still important to find those, to make sure that they get an accurate picture of what happened. The cockpit voice recorder can tell you a lot. In twa800 back in 1976, the sounds of the cockpit voice recorder that were actually recorded helped investigators pinpoint that Center Fuel Tank explosion. And so, you dont want to discount the information that you can get from those devices. How does it work in an International Setting where, does the u. S. Even really have jurisdiction . It wasnt an american plane, its not an american flight, theyre not going to theres no reason for americans to be there, except that i assume our expertise. How does it work as they work with International Regulators . So, in any case for example, weve got pretty specific International Protocols through the International Civil aviation organization. The countries that are signatories to that agree to a certain process. The state of occurrence leads the investigation, but other states, other countries, they have the right to participate. The state of the operator, malaysia, the state of manufacturer, which is the u. S. , because this is a boeing 777, has a right to participate in an investigation. Now, when you have something thats a criminal or terrorist or purposeful act, thats not an accident investigation, but these protocols generally help people to understand how to conduct these investigations anyway. Were not going to ask you to speculate too much, but we cant let you go without i mean, you have tremendous experience in all kinds of air disasters. From what you have seen so far, from what we have heard, from what we have read, i know you havent been there, but what do you think happened . What do you think theyre going to find there . You know, i think its were just 24 hours in to this event. Theres an awful lot of information coming from the Intelligence Community and the Security Side of the house. I think wed want to make sure that we can verify and corroborate all of that information. Theres a lot of statements that are being made, but youve got to have all of the supporting materials, not just to rule things in, but also to rule things out. And i would say from an investigative perspective, its still pretty early. You want to see the evidence. You want to see all of the equipment thats on the ground and you also want to review all of the tapes and the data. Malaysian airlines has been fending off criticism as people have asked why did you fly that route, why did you fly over Eastern Ukraine. Can you give us any insight into how that process works, and is it right for them to defend themselves . Is it right for them to be criticized . Well, i dont think the malaysians were the only ones that were still flying over the air space in ukraine, but i can tell you that every single carrier is going to be doubling down and taking a look at their routes and identifying the risks. And when it comes to aviation, these are very low probability but high consequence events, and you have got to do a proper Risk Assessment to make sure that youre protecting your assets and, particularly for commercial air carriers that provide passenger service, to protect those people who are entrusting you with their safety. Former ntsb chair, Deborah Hersman, good to see you again. Thank you for your thoughts today, maam. Thank you. You bet. All right, heading toward the close here. Again, expiration day. Some of that may be whats moving us higher here, but the dow is up at the highs of the session with a gain of 128 points. The nasdaq, pretty good gain there, 68 at the moment. And time warner shares have skyrocketed on Rupert Murdochs 80 billion offer to add the company to his media empire. But even if he backs down, somebody here says time warners value is finally being unlocked, and this might be just the beginning. Thats next. Plus, earnings season shifts into high gear next week with nearly half of the dow components set to report. Oh, yeah. And theres apple, too. Oh, and amazon, and a lot more. We get a preview coming up. Chocolate is very individual. White chocolate lovers dont like dark chocolate. Milk chocolate lovers dont necessarily like dark or white. Before we couldnt really allow the consumer to customize their chocolate. We needed a scalable Cloud Solution allowing them to select what they are looking for. Now there is endless opportunity to indulge. Customization is made with the ibm cloud. The ibm cloud is the cloud for business. Shares of time warner up 20 this week on the news that Rupert Murdoch made an offer to buy the company. The offer was for 85 a share, basically. You look at this oneweek chart and you know instantly when the news broke, wednesday morning. Unbelievable. But its above that price now. With us is rich chulo and liza vord. Rich, why is the offer above that price . Do folks think theres going to be another, better offer from rupert or from somebody else . Well, the consensus is well, first, jeff bugz and Richard Peppler have done an excellent job to turn around this company. Time warner. 14 a share a couple years ago, almost bankrupt, now look what they are today. So, Rupert Murdoch has a history of paying up for stuff, right . He, what, dow jones, paid about 600 million, 700 million more than the initial price and a premium to the stock price. This is a big deal, though. This is a big deal. When you look perspective, time warner doesnt really buy, outside hbo, doesnt really buy fox anything it doesnt already have, right . Tnt, tbs, cnn. I mean, fox does all that stuff pretty well to begin with. Sports, okay, you get some rights. But heres the thing, on streaming, this year about 50 of the top binge shows around are controlled by fox and time warner. Where are you going here, rich . Does this mean that rupert pays up more or that somebody else does . I think time warner would be stupid to sell this company below 100 a share and theyll probably get 120 now were getting somewhere. 150 a share. And more importantly, organically, without a deal, if youre patient, i think its worth he thinks its worth 100 bucks a share. I wont comment on the share price, but if you continue to see consolidation in the media space, because you have the advent of streaming, you have consumers cutting their cable, their satellite subscriptions p. Theyre the cord cutters and Media Companies will continue to consolidate on the media and distribution side. Youre seeing the comcast and time warner merger, at some point these will happen. Do you think regulators will eventually get involved . They already are involved. They acknowledged they would sell cnn, because its too synergistic it would be too monopolistic to have both fox news and cnn. What else . I think that the governments going to continue to get involved in these deals. Think of the movie studios. Rich, youre saying no. Look at it like this, theres 1,000 channels on verizon right now, 1,000 and theres nothing on. Theres five or six major streaming players with subscribers over 5 or 6 million. Theres no antitrust here. On the studio side, there may be some things to do Warner Brothers and fox . That would be like 35 , 40 of hollywood right there. On the studio side, there may be some things to do around the periphery, but as far as tv goes . Not a whole heck of a lot. And they may want to spin out cnn and some of these other assets just because they might be better off on their own. The other guessing game were playing around the water cooler is could anybody else step in and preempt a bid by rupert Murdo Murdoch . Who would that be . Interesting question. I think everyone is really tied up right now with their own mergers. Youve got at t and direct in discussions. Youve obviously got the comcast time warner. Is google really going to come in here and make a play . What about disney . Possibly. Yeah, right . Theyre big enough. Look it, on the new media side, time warner and amazon are doing a lot together. Amazons got a contract coming up with netflix for the cloud services. They could, you know, kind of build up time warner, and that would offset any leverage they have on amazon why do you think apple . I would say google more than apple, because google also has aspirations beyond what theyre doing right now. Google play, you know, the hbo and the foxconn tent very popular on a digital download basis there. So, look, ultimately, this asset, because theyre so good of the tv shows that are produced, last 41 since may, originals, all right . Quality pointswise, the combination of fox and time warner is responsible for about 700 of the available 800 quality points. Thats user metrics why wouldnt the doj point at that as a problem . Exactly. Anybody can produce quality. No, its not that hard. Look, were number fwhun this space nobody ever beats us, it seems. You know, when cnbc first came on, there were other news programs, and look what happened. To our point, its not hard to produce they all died away and theres just us now. No, no, you guys built out of nothing. Come on. Were going to go now before she gets too far flung here. Good to see you both. Thank you. Thank you for having us. Its a story thats not going anywhere. But where are we going . 27 minutes before the bell. The Dow Jones Industrial average is deep in positive territory, higher by 126 points. The nasdaq and the s p . Nasdaq for sure regained all yesterdays losses. S p about threequarters of that to this point. Crisis in the middle east continuing as israels invasion of gaza heats up. When we come back, were going to hear from the man just fired by israeli Prime Minister netanyahu for saying that the government was not being aggressive enough against hamas. And then later, meet the press moderator David Gregory discussing how the white house is handling the two front geopolitical threats in the middle east and ukraine. Can get a 1,000 person u turbocharged reward card with a new volkswagen turbo. So why are we so obsessed with turbo . Because theres nothing more exhilarating than a powerful ride. And you can get that in places you might not expect. Like the passat. And also in the funtodrive jetta. In fact, volkswagen has sold more turbos than any other brand over the last ten years. That is a lot of turbo. Vo hurry in and you can get a 1,000 turbocharged reward card when you lease a new 2014 passat s for 219 a month. Dad hes our broker. He helps looks after all our money. Kid do you pay him . Dad of course. Kid how much . Dad i dont know exactly. Kid what if youre not happy . Does he have to pay you back . Dad nope. Kid why not . Dad it doesnt work that way. Kid why not . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management at Charles Schwab thr30 minutes left in the trading with the dow up 124 points. The markets have really come back today, lets face it. Some of this may be the result of the expiration today of options and futures contracts, but it also may be an assessment of whats going on around the world, in the middle east and in the ukrainian area, that maybe its not going to have a Material Impact on the economy and on prices in this country. So, weve come back here, michelle. Earlier this week, israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Deputy Defense minister danny danon for criticizing the governments handling of the gaza fighting. He said they should be more aggressive. He stood by his decision to speak up against the government. He joins us now on the cnbc news line from tel aviv to talk more about this. To some degree, do you feel vindicated now that the incursion has begun . Good afternoon, bill and michelle. First of all, im happy that the cabinets changed its decision from tuesday, because the decision on tuesday was to accept a premature ceasefire, meaning that we would have to keep it open and there would be a lot of tunnels beneath the border of gaza and israel. So, im happy that the Prime Minister changed his opinion and the operation now is active. So, maybe i paid the price, but i am still a very active member of the parliament in israel. I will continue to be active. But more importantly, now we are engaged and we are doing the right thing. How long do you expect this to last . Well, we have no desire to occupy gaza or to stay in gaza. Our goal is to bring tranquility to the region, and i can tell you that the people here in israel over the last ten days were under stress. I am a father of two younger daughters. It is not pleasant to wake them up in the middle of the night and to drag them to the shelter. More than twothirds of the israeli population is feeling the same stress like i mentioned. We cannot continue like that. Weve all seen video, yes, and its such a heartbreaking situation to watch unfold, but do you think days, weeks, months . Well, if you look at the other operations we had, it took weeks, not months. But we said it very clearly, we will do whatever necessary to enable the people of israel to sleep soundly without missiles, without terrorism. It is not easy to send our boys inside gaza. It is not pleasant to be there and to fight there, but every once in a while, we have to flex some muscle and to make sure that the terrorist organization understands that we want to live peacefully, but we also know how to fight. What happens after this . I mean, you risk an escalation of tensions, obviously. What youre trying to do is bring down the number of missiles fired. Thats very clear. You want to insure the safety of israeli citizens. But whats the next step . Once youve finished the incursion into gaza, reached your objectives, come back out, presumably, at that point, now what . The goal of the operation as we speak is to find the tunnels and destroy them and to get the hamas organization. Maybe in the future there will be bolder goals, to take out hamas regime completely, which is something which is not easy but we are capable of doing. Also, we hear the voices coming from egypt that they understand that hamas is not an organization that cares about its population. Its a terrorist organization. That eventually, we will have to clean up graaza. I dont know if it will happen in this operation, but at some day well have to do it. The death of the little boy on the beach has garnered International Attention and highlevel criticism against israel. What do you say to people criticizing israel as a result of that . We all regret this horrible incident, but we need to look at the broader picture. We do the best that people will not be hurt, the civilian population will not be involved. And hamas is doing exactly the opposite, using the civilian population to protect the terrorists, and theyre also targeting the civilian population. I can tell you about numerous attacks that were delayed because we were very cautious not to hurt civilians. You see the orders that we give to our pilots, do the best even if it means there will be delays not to hurt civilians. Unfortunately, it happens when you have such a conflict. Mr. Danon, thank you for your time. We wish you well there. Thank you for being with us. Thank you very much. Danny danon joining us from tel aviv this evening. Heading toward the close, 19 minutes left in the trading session here. With this expiration, i dont think well get a lot of price movement, but well get a lot of volume on the close. Up 120 points on the dow right now. That intraday chart, h steady climb into the close. If you think this week has been chockfull of earnings, you havent seen anything yet. Bertha coombs will be previewing the earnings flood heading our way towards monday, and chances are you own at least some of these names. Absolutely. Plus, the Justice Department charging fedex with knowingly delivering drugs from illegal pharmacies. Will a giant corporation really be convicted of Drug Trafficking . And how good is the governments case . Both sides of that issue still to come on the closing bell. 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Bertha coombs rounds up the names that you need to keep an eye on. Shes got quite a list. Bertha. Bill and michelle, lets start with a little bit of a scorecard. A lot of companies out with earnings next week. In fact, over the next five days, 133 s p 500 firms and a dozen dow industrials will be reporting, making it the busiest week of this earnings season. On monday, were going to hear from netflix, hasbro and chipotle, kicking off the week. Tuesday, we get apple after the close and microsoft as well. Those coming after the bell. Lockheed martin will also be out on tuesday as well. And wednesdays a big one. Once again, tech is going to be in focus with facebook after the close. Were going to get boeing and glaxosmithkline as well. And not on this list, but were also going to be getting results on wednesday from gilead sciences, maker of the controversial hepc drug, and thats likely to impact the health care sector. Big day for health care. Thursday as well, well be back watching the consumer. Thats the busiest day of the earnings season. 49 s p 500 companies reporting. Among them, caterpillar, starbucks and visa. And on friday, were going to close out with xerox and Stanley Black decker. Overall a busy week for investors to digest and i think our squad will need 20 coffees to keep charged up for all of it, michelle. For sure. Theyll be gearing up for that. Thanks, bertha, very much. Amazon next week. Amazing. A lot to put on the screen. A lot to keep an eye on. 15 minutes to the closing bell. The Dow Jones Industrial average off its highs, high now by about 112 points. The s p and nasdaq also in positive territory. In the wake of the Malaysian Air tragedy in ukraine, we want to know if its common for commercial aircraft to fly over conflict zones. Our phil lebeau and an aviation expert are standing by and you wont believe what theyve found out. Thats still to come. 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Theres only an imbalance of about 100 million to the plus side to buy here. So, not going to have a Material Impact on prices. Well probably get some volume, as i mentioned, though, but right now the dow is up 109 points. Heading into the close, david darst and dominic chu joining us now. Good to have you here. Nice to be here. Did we just shake off everything from yesterday . Gaza doesnt matter . Ukraine doesnt matter . Michelle, youre a geopolitical expert. The way they fix drop today, the people coming in to buy tells me that the party is not over in terms of the United States stock market. We all are in solidarity with the 299 people that lost their lives. This is possibly the moral bankruptcy of the people who shot that missile, same as september 1st, 1983, korea 007, shot down by the soviet union. The same as pope paul ii saying mass in krakow, 3 Million People, and the same as chernobyl, april 86. Those things contributed to the downfall of the bad guys. But it doesnt have a Material Impact on earnings or Economic Conditions . You know, i think, basically, everybody believes the fed, the European Central bank, bank of japan are standing behind if anything did get out of hand, so there is that monetary backstop, and the Economic News flow has been pretty good. Theres a good feeling that the Central Banks around the world have put enough liquidity into the system to make sure that the spigots are there just in case anything happens. And this is not an unforeseen event, what were seeing today. They looked at all 22 times since 1990 when the vix has gone up by over 30 . Did you know that two out of every three times, the market, the s p 500 finishes up the next day and up by an average of 0. 75 . The lesson last year is a geopolitical event causes a selloff . The lesson is to buy. Short buy. Buy. Buy the dip, and thats how its been for the past at least five years. But its staggering to think that even during Financial Times of turmoil, since 1990, you can have that kind of buythedip mentality. Remember, this is also a situation where, like we said, there are, yes, tragic circumstances developing in places around the world. Its not to say that they dont have importance here, but there is a focus thats being traders are right now handicapping what they have to put more emphasis on, that or the plethora, the 133 s p 500 companies that are going to be reporting earnings next week. Sure. 12 dow components as well. What are you buying here, david . Japan. Still . Japan had a 56 rise last year. Bill, weve talked about it. We think its a good time to go into japan. Four things. Its a structural reform story, its an earnings story, it is a valuations story and it is an Asset Allocation shift story. And still so very far away from the highs it hit before. If you believe it can get back there at some point, boy, youve got a long way to go. Excellent point. That was 39,000 and its now 15,000, so youre not even to the Halfway Point no. You also, bill and michelle like nasdaq. You can buy mass limited partnerships for some yield. So, i think those are two areas that you could look at. And apple, the Morgan Stanley analyst for apple has raised their price target. Theyre returning 130 billion of cash through the dividends and 90 billion share buyback. Get ready for the iwatch and the larger screen apple iphone. Meanwhile, earnings as bertha was just pointing out, we have a flood of them next week to get ready for. Very much in focus. What theyre going to do is tell us a lot more about the health of the corporate dmaey, not just because you have the buybacks. You know, everybody knocks ibm about the buyback story, theres only a billion shares or less than a billion shares on the market right now. What it will come down to is amazon will tell you more about the health of the consumer. Caterpillar is reporting earnings as well. That will be a proxy for the Global Industrial development. Are people still spending on infrastructuretype plays . Looking for ways to make those roads and bridges. A huge amount of these companies are really going to set the tone. And thats whats going to be key for a lot of traders out there. Considering the run that weve seen, if the misses are big or even small, is this market vulnerable, especially in an environment where youre worried about the fed taking their foot off the pedal . I think if you saw the ceo commentary as not being that sanguine about the future, that would be one thing, michelle. Youve got jobs growth, but its not great jobs. Its parttime jobs, its lowpaying jobs. Right. We want to see those corporations begin in their commentary to say were going to invest and hire. This hasnt happened yet. Its all been stimulusdriven, buybackdriven, as dominic said. So, you want to see those comments. Well continue those thoughts. Next, well come right back with the closing countdown. And can this market keep rallying even in the face of increasing geopolitical risk . Well look at that, handicap the weekend and looking into next week as well. So, stick around. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Collection is here. Llac summer during the cadillac summers best event, lease this all new 2014 cts for around 459 a month or purchase with 0 apr and make this the summer of style. Its progressive pain. First that feeling of numbness. Then hot pins. Almost like lightning bolts, hot strikes into my feet. So my doctor prescribed lyrica. The pain has been reduced and i feel better than i did before. [ male announcer ] its known that diabetes damages nerves. Lyrica is fdaapproved to treat diabetic nerve pain. Lyrica is not for everyone. It may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. 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Here was her testimony on tuesday, when she said that biotechs, and what else was overvalued . Social media. Social media stocks were overvalued, and that sent stocks lower at that point. Then we came back, then of course, the events of yesterday precipitated that big selloff, and weve in back most of the day in that regard. The tenyear yield down for the week. We saw a move lower as that safety trade went in there. The yield got down to 2. 45 and change, 2. 44, now back to 2. 485. Gold, another safety trade that went into play, moved higher yesterday. As a result, weve come back to some degree, down 6 today, but still above 1,300. And the biggest move was the volatility index itself, the vix. Huge gain yesterday. Dom, you were just pointing out, typically when we get a move of more than 30 , as we did yesterday, we get a snapback the next day. With the markets. And whats crazy about the volatility index right now is you can see, the levels that were at are still relatively, relatively, on a relative basis 20s the longterm average. Youre seeing very depressed levels right now. For people who bought Insurance Protection in this form of this type of index, they got paid well, but in the last week, its only up 2 if you look at the entire week. So, up very quick and down very quick in the same week. Well watch the events overseas over the weekend before on monday. You want to watch geopolitics events in asiana. And its all about existing home sales, all about earnings next week. The guys ringing the closing bell, trupanion, successful ipo, two of them both up double digits. And a French Bulldog named jones is ringing the bell through trupanion. Up 30 . Its a policy holder, im told. Stick around. Well handicap next week and look at some of the issues that the market faced this volatile week, coming up on the second hour of the closing bell. Welcome to the closing bell. Im Michelle Carusocabrera in for kelly evans. Bill griffeth will join us in just a moment. Heres how were finishing the day on wall street. Wow, most of yesterday erased. The Dow Jones Industrial average higher by 120, almost 120 points, a gain of 0. 75 . The nasdaq erasing yesterdays losses, higher by nearly 69 points, a gain of 1. 5 , and the s p 500 higher by nearly 20 points, a gain of more than 1 . Bill . Hello, there. Got a mike . There it is. Let me put the mike on. Excellent. Lets do our panel, should we do that . Show the wire a little bit as we go. Susan ox is from the Aspen Institute. Weve got robert frank joining us on the panel this week. Cnbc contributor michael yoesh cami is out there somewhere. And also for more on todays Market Action, rich steinberg of steinberg global asset management, and our fast money trader tim seymour. Tim seymour bill. What did you make of the Market Action this week, especially this snapback action . When all was said and done, after all of the volatility, the s ps finishing positive on the week here. Well, after last week, though, we had a down week last week. So, on the net week over week, not a huge surprise. Todays volume snapback was very light. I actually think by monday morning, were going to be back facing at least some of the realities of what is the response from yesterdays events. I do think if you look at earnings, theyve been a big help here. And fortunately, were getting some eps growth, were seeing the s p in the meat of earnings season, and 77 of the companies have beat on eps, 70 have beat on the top line. So, the numbers are good. We are nearing also some kind of contrarian sell levels, though, in terms of sentiment. And you talk about volatility and how it seems to shrug it off. Its a little scary up here. Do you agree, Michael Steinberg . Richard steinberg, excuse me yeah, michelle, its okay, michelle. Im glad youre not in the ukraine, by the way. Thanks. Yeah, i think next week is going to be a huge what i call the high hopes or ant in rubber tree market. You know, you have 150 companies reporting. And right now, the markets trading at 16 1 2 times earnings and analysts are looking for 11 Earnings Growth. At mid cap, theyre trading 18 1 2 times earnings with 15 increase in earnings year over year. So, if earnings come through, those high hopes will start to filter into multiples based on next year. Youre talking like the earnings matter more than all this geopolitical stuff. I just came back from israel last week. Its very, very serious. I was in a bunker five different times, but i think in terms of where the markets are, yeah, i think the ukraine and israel, as much damage as is going on there at a human level, it is about earnings now. Let me present this. I want to get everybodys reaction to something jim cramer said today on whether or not the geopolitical risk from yesterday could provide a buying opportunity or not. Heres what cramer said. We need to get a bigger price break before we take action. I believe people will assess these situations over several days, and during that period, the inclination will be to take profits, not to buy, for the vast majority of stocks. I say wait. Dont be overanxious up here. I think that a better moment to buy stocks awaits. Patience is warranted. What do you think, michael . Do you need to be patient . Obviously, somebody bought today. Well, you know who bought, bill, actually, are all the people that feel like theyve missed the rally in the first place. Theres a lot of buying pressure out there thats just waiting for the market to drop. Jims absolutely right. Youve got to be patient. I dont think this is a huge, obviously, bump down. I mean, you go down a couple hundred points or 500 points, thats nothing, really, when you have a 16,000, 17,000 market. So, i think you need to be patient. But when the market does bump down in these situations, i do think earnings are going to trump geopolitical for the time being, given the news that we know now. So, understand that the Retail Investor, not the institutional investor, the Retail Investor is still sitting on massive amounts of cash. And when theyre sitting on that cash, you know what they feel . Ive missed it. Right. Whens my time to get in . That might be only 5 down. Yeah, you know, right now, Financial Markets are reacting to financial realities. And you know, michelle, i think you put it well earlier when you said weve looked at the last few cycles of geopolitical risk and uncertainty, and theyve been buying opportunities. Every time i see you in the field somewhere now, im going to buy stocks, because that essentially means that, basically, this is sort of passing hat. Its the michelle indicator. Exactly. Right. Dont flatter me. Susan, you know, we talk about the possibility of complacency in this market, volatility index yesterday, the rally notwithstanding. Its been historically very, very low. Are we taking these geopolitical events too much in stride at this point, do you think . Possibly. I think jim is right, that its important to wait to let the facts come in, to really kind of understand and digest whats happening. I dont think we know everything certainly about what happened in ukraine. Gaza is a very fluid situation right now. Its important to kind of look at those two things. I think the markets were happy to hear today president obama about the sanctions we are imposing on russia, that they are very targeted. These are sort of circular strikes at sanctions that were going after specific institutions, specific individuals and being very mindful of the broader effects for the Global Economy. You know, bill, on geopolitical issues, its really important that people dont invest necessarily on the kneejerk reaction of geopolitical issues. What matters is what geopolitical issues will do to financial fundamentals. Thats really what matters. If we have a problem in the middle east, its about oil prices. If we have a problem in the ukraine, which obviously, tragically, we do, it might be about whats happening with russia and its role in the Global Economy. So, we just dont want to look at geopolitical issues and Say Something happened badly outside the United States, its got to be bad for the economy. We want to see what the domino is. Rich, i want to ask you something, the last time you were with us, not too long ago, you were cautious in this market because, number one, valuations were a little stretched. You gave us a little janet yellen echo there. But as a result, it left us more vulnerable should there be any geopolitical events. You know, what happened the last couple days here. Does that discount does that disprove your premise about the markets being vulnerable to geopolitical events right now . I actually think to some extent, geopolitical risk doesnt matter until it does and i think investors, institutional and Retail Investors are still living with ghost of 2008. People have a very short trigger on their finger. Thats true. And any type of miss, either in earnings going into next week or heightening issues with risks to europe could have this market pull back, and then money could be put back to work. Like cramer, i think you just be patient here. People are talking about the Retail Investors not in this market, and i dont agree. Theres been a lot of articles out over the last couple days. Bank of America Merrill lynch does a great survey, said their high Network Clients are at sixyear highs in terms of allocations, so less cash in the market. But thats their High Net Worth clients. Thats the more sophisticated client. You think the average investor [ everyone talking at once ] Retail Investors, sentiment indicators, where they are, those sound like skawl, contrarian indicators. Theyre at record highs. To say the market isnt very buellant here and people dont have a lot of risk on the table is crazy. A lot of hedge funds are underhedged because they have missed a lot of the rally. Robert frank, youre nodding up and down. Lets take the average investor with 2,000 invested in the market, not their 401 k that they ignore anyway, because its on autopilot, the average investor does not have as much in the market. The numbers just show those people dont have money in the markets. But on a relative basis to where they were two, three, four years ago, they are way ahead of themselves. And again, 401 k s absolutely matter. People may check them five times a year, but the minute they start to feel the pain, it will be 2008 again. Robert frank guys, lets get in robert frank here, who actually spends a lot of time covering high network individuals. If we can hear each other. Weve seen a big change in the mindset of wealthy investors ive talked to. Beginning of the year, end of last year, they were hoarding cash, taking money off the table, thinking this would be a terrible year. In the last few months, theres millionaire, billionaire capitulation. Basically, theyre saying the feds won. So far, theres little sign of inflation, even though thats the biggest thing on the minds of wealthy investors right now, and so, they are putting money back on the pot, back off the sidelines, and they basically said, look, were going to ride this year out. Everything looks relatively okay, unless theres some huge event overseas. Susan, one of the biggest risks youre identifying, talking about the Aspen Institute right now. Well, i think looking at the financial sector, were seeing them start to give back on loan loss reserves, so theyre seeing less credit risk in the market, which is a good thing, but were also seeing a loosening of credit standards sort of across the board. Its large institutions, credit unions. And i think we need to be a little careful to make sure we dont sort of get ourselves overinflated again and do a rewind of 2008. The biggest thing i hear among the wealthy is theres no place to put your money. Theres just too much capital. And i heard those exact words in 2008, and its really scary. And yield is nowhere to be found. One of the riskiest places. Before we go, tim seymour, are you long this market going into the weekend . What are you doing here . The last couple days havent been terribly eventful in terms of what i would do to a portfolio during these shocks. Again, going into those days in russia, we were well prepared for the volatility that i think people had already priced back in, but if you look towards next week, i think there are some fantastic earnings for investors to be focused on. Obviously, apple is one of them, and this is a stock thats run 25 since last quarter, a stock that has heavyduty expectations going into the fourth quarter, but this may be the last quarter where actually they get a pass because its before all the refresh. So, watch apple. Thats going to be a huge sentiment indicator. Later in the week you have boeing, you have mcdonalds, starbucks. These are bigcap multinationals that are doing very well right now. Tim, were going to let you go. Rich steinberg, thank you all for joining us. Have a great weekend down there in lovely florida. Michelle, stay home. Yeah. We dont want that michelle indicator going anywhere. By the way, be sure to stick around. Catch tim and the rest of the fast money crew coming up at 5 00 p. M. Eastern time right after us. Theyll be talking about russias tight grip on energy in europe and what that may mean for negotiations Going Forward. Dont miss that coming up here on cnbc. Meantime, the crash of the Malaysia Airlines flight 17 has raised all kinds of questions this week. Today some aviation experts are asking why airlines have been flying over International Hot zones like ukraine. Were going to get some answers on that coming up here. Fedex made its name on guaranteed overnight delivery. Now that dependability has it facing Drug Trafficking charges. Yes, really. The company has been indicted on those charges. That story just ahead. With all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow . The equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent Research Providers into a single score thats weighted based on how accurate theyve been in the past. Im Howard Spielberg of fidelity investments. The equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me zero heartburn. Annc prilosec otc the number one doctor recommend frequent heartburn medicine for nine straight years. One pill each morning 24 hours zero heartburn. The downing of malaysia air flight 17 may be having global reverberations. Airlines may have to be more vigilant about avoiding hotspots, such as ukraine, but what had been the policy before what happened yesterday . Phil lebeau joins us. Hes been looking into this. Whatd you find, phil . It depends where youre flying and whos in charge of that air space, bill and michelle. And we should point out that this afternoon, the European Aviation Safety Agency warned all airlines to avoid the Eastern Ukraine air space. And if you take a look at this map here from flight radar 24, you can see that almost all of the flights in and around ukraine, theyre going south of ukraine, going down by turkey. And heres what you need to keep in mind when you talk about hotspots around the world and how many planes are out there. Theres busy skyways, so to speak, the highways of the sky. 99,000 flights every day worldwide. Those are commercial flights. Were not talking about cargo flights, were not talking about private aviation. 58,288 flight routes around the world. Most of them are pretty meaningless or harmless routes, but there are scores of these. And thousands of notice to airmen notes are going out every single day. These are notices saying do not fly in this particular region. Most of the time its because maybe the president s in the area or theres Something Else going on. But we should also point out that Many Airlines are flying in areas where you would not be expecting them to. Lets take a look at, oh, iraq and syria. See those flights there . You might be saying, well, whos flying there . Yeah, the airlines like emirates, qatar, a number of the middle Eastern Airlines and thai airways, theyre all flying in that area. It doesnt mean that theyre in danger there. Also, look at over afghanistan and iraq. You dont see a ton of flights here, but you will see some flights here. Again, some of the leading airlines around the world, they are flying over these particular hotspots or what we would perceive as hotspots, but theyre at 33,000 or 35,000 feet, well above any potential danger. And why are they well above that danger . Because the feeling is that the only way that you can reach an aircraft at that altitude is if you have Something Like a buk missile, which in almost all cases, theyre going to be controlled by state governments. They want to avoid the shoulderfired missiles, guys. And thats why when it comes to flights around the world, you may not realize it, but youre going to be flying over some areas where if you were lower, you might be in danger, but because youre higher, theyre not too concerned. All right, phil, stay there. Lets talk more about this. Joining us for more is david feeskus of zen phone strategies, a former spokes haman for the airlines industry. Thank you for being here. Good to be here. How many passenger planes flew over the same area yesterday . Thats a very common route from europe to southeast asia. There was about 290 planes that took it yesterday. As a matter of fact, there were two planes, one from singapore airlines, one from air india, that were within 15 miles of the Malaysian Aircraft that was hit. Malaysia air says that that route was okayed by a global organization, and its called euro port, but do they hold sway with other airlines around the world . No. Well, the way the system works is the International Civil aviation organization, they give guidance out basically to governments around the world, and its governments that issue the warnings, the noflies, the bans to their particular airlines. So, how exposed is malaysia air to flying that route right now . Well, theyre obviously going to have to route around Eastern Ukraine as the other airlines are doing, but my guess is that they will continue to use it. And you know, that route also goes over afghanistan, it goes over the tribal areas in pakistan, but it does it at a very high altitude. So, the perceived risk from missiles is very, very small. Robert . Yeah, phil, i think you reported yesterday that delta had no longer flown over this area, and the american airlines, it seems, basically said, all the airlines, the faa, dont fly over this area. Right. Did the American Government know something others didnt or is it just a level of caution . I think its a level of caution. Its not a case of where the faa said, hey, we know this is going happen, so stay out of that area. I think its more a level of caution. And lets be honest. As you mentioned, the u. S. Airlines, generally speaking, they dont have many flights over in that area going over the ukraine. Right. David, what were you going to say some. That faa warning had nothing to do with concern about military. It had to do with that the government of ukraine and the government of russia were both claiming sovereignty over the air Traffic Control space there, and they were worried about confusion in air Traffic Control. There was actually no concerns about that. And more specifically directed toward crimea in the south, right . Primarily, yes, crimea and out over the sea. Are airlines going to have to be more vigilant about safety in the air now as a result of this attack . Listen, airlines take their cue. They take their directions from regulatory bodies, from the government. Thats the faa in the United States and other ones around the world. Theyre going to continue to do that. But they also Pay Attention to things like if theres a hotspot in the world where youve got airtoair combat going on. Thats very obvious. They stay clear of that. But theyre going to continue to take their lead from the government regulatory bodies. Susan . Do we need to rethink, potentially, what our kind of limitations are . You know, people have been operating under the assumption that shoulderpropelled instruments can only get to 20,000 feet and if were flying at 30,000 feet, were fine. Do we need to rethink that mindset, maybe start changing our views on whats possible and what kind of missiles might be hitting our planes . You know, this is something that is extraordinarily rare. The last time this happened was over the black sea. It was an accident in 2001. Theres been a couple hundred million flights since then. You know, the presumption that planes are going high enough that they can avoid anything but statecontrolled Missile Systems is probably going to hold sway and things are going to continue to go on as theyve gone on. And by the way, theres a very solid Safety Record here. To this point. All right, david. Thank you for joining us very much. My pleasure. Very interesting. Phil, good stuff as always. Thank you. See you later. Were also continuing to monitor another hotspot, the middle east. Israels incursion into the gaza strip to flush out hamas militants entering its second day. Were going live to tel aviv for the latest. And later on closing bell, well be talking to meet the press moderator David Gregory for how washington has been reacting to the events in the middle east and the air crash in ukraine, still to come. Tdd 18003452550 there are Trading Opportunities tdd 18003452550 just waiting to be found. 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Tdd 18003452550 so you can take charge tdd 18003452550 of your trading. In a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. Israels Defense Forces on the brink of whats being called a significant expansion into gaza. For that story and all of todays developments, joining us with the latest, nbc newss Martin Fletcher in tel aviv. Martin. Reporter hi, michelle, hi, bill. As you mentioned, israels talking about an expansion of the ground operation, but the Prime Minister, netanyahu, said that after this mornings cabinet meeting, only if its necessary. And he said the goal of israel would be to insure what he called continuing calm in israel. To make that happen, they would have to take out completely the rocket launching system that hamas has. So, thats what theyre beginning to do, going in in Massive Force on the ground, but proceeding cautiously. They set two immediate goals. The first is to take out the secret tunnel system that islamic militants led by hamas have been building from gaza into israel. They use those tunnels to attack israeli civilians and military inside israel. Now, the military, the army here says theyve already within the last 24 hours of the Ground Invasion, theyve already found 21 tunnel entrances inside gaza. That doesnt necessarily mean 21 tunnels, because tunnels often have more than one entrance. So, its about a dozen tunnels that israels already found. They believe theres probably several dozen. Thats a number they mentioned. And they also said it may take 10 to 14 days to find and destroy the entire tunnel system. So, thats another 12 days by that schedule of potential fighting for israel. Theyre also moving in to the north into those neighborhoods, where youll remember a couple of days ago, they dropped about 100,000 leaflets, warning palestinians to leave their homes for safety reasons so that israel could operate in that area looking for rocket launching sites and military stockpiles. And right now theyre going house to house, schools, mosques, other buildings in the areas, looking for rocket launchers and military equipment. So far, one Israeli Soldiers been killed, apparently, according to the israeli army, killed by a tank shell from an israeli tank, and about two dozen palestinians killed. And the israeli say theyve captured about 15 palestinians who theyre interrogating, hoping to get information about the tunnels and the rocket launching sites. Bill, michelle . Martin, before we let you go, very briefly, if you could, give us a sense of the, on the ground, the level of tension for the average citizen there in israel. Youre in tel aviv. I mean, is everybody just taking this in stride or has the tension level gone up appreciably since the incursion began yesterday . Reporter ive got to say, theyre continuing to take it in stride. You know, israelis are defended by this iron dome antirocket system, which has been phenomenally successful. So, theres a siren, people wander off looking for the nearest shelter, and then when the all clear sounds, they resume their lives, they go back to their coffee. I was at a restaurant, actually, this evening, having my chicken soup, when the alarm went off and everybody just sort of got up slowly from their tables, walked over to the safety room, waited for the explosions that you hear, which would be the iron dome rockets being fired. Thats the first explosion. And thats followed by another explosion as the rocket explodes in the air, knocking out the palestinian missile. And then theres another siren, an all clear, and everyone just goes back to their table and continues eating. And thats pretty much the story. So, yeah, israelis in the Central Region are taking it pretty much in stride, but i dont want to underplay the stress here. There are a lot of people who are afraid, especially in the border communities, they cannot continue their lives. And the palestinians, while they havent really caused any significant physical damage, only one death, but this is now a nation that is under siege in terms of those rockets. There is a lot of stress, but they are taking it in stride. Bill, were looking at the tel aviv 25 up on this big screen. It hasnt missed a beat this week. Another market taking it in stride. Martin fletcher, thank you. Lets get more on where the situation is going in gaza. Joining us right now is james carafone. Heritage foundations Vice President of foreign and defense policy studies. Thanks for joining us. You know, we had on there former Deputy Defense minister last hour, and i asked whether this can lead to an escalation. He says no. I mean, we have a very specific objective in mind. Once weve achieved that, were not looking to occupy gaza at this point. What do you think . I think thats right. I think this is really a bad day for hamas. I mean, since this escalation started, hamas has really nothing to show for this. You saw cairo actually come out and try to broker a peace deal but really distance itself from hamas. You havent seen the arab street rise up. You havent seen arab countries kind of running to the defense of these guys. The international outcry, is actually, i think, shifting towards the israelis. The israelis have shown a lot of restraint and they have got very limited and sound military objectives. Hamas is running out of money, so theyre getting no new friends, theyre running out of money, their militarys going to be significantly degraded. Theyre going to be humiliated. When its all said and done, theyre not going to be in a good position. The market is acting as if thats exactly whats going to happen. Theyre going to be incredibly efficient. The israelis are going to wrap this up in ten days. What if that doesnt happen . What are the risks to that . Do you see any possibility that it doesnt go as planned . Well, you know, thats really under the control of the israelis. I mean, they can always pull back if theyre worried, and theyll still have degraded hamas a good deal. So, its very unlikely that the israelis are going to be overstretched. Now, they may go after the tunnels leading into egypt, but its very, incredibly unlikely that the israelis are going to get bogged down, because they can with draw if it looks like things are heating up, or somehow, they can pull back, so, its very difficult for hamas to somehow pull them in and get them tied into a conflict. And again, somebody whos got the iron dome shooting down the incoming missiles, theres little hamas can do to pressure the israelis, unless they start with the suicide bombings or Something Else. Susan . Well, i mean, thats not out of the question, unfortunately. But as you sort of talked about before, hamas has really been crippled over the past, you know, year or plus since those tunnels, the tunnels between gaza and egypt have been shut down. And this almost feels like a little bit of a last stand. So, it seems, unfortunately, a little likely that theyre going to really try to push as hard as they can and that this may not go away quietly as much as the israelis are pursuing what everyone thinks is a good, sound military strategy. The problem for hamas is what do you do to regain the offensive . What do you do to regain the initiative . What do you do to get the arab street riled up and get it on your side . And theres just not a lot of cards in the deck there. James, its robert frank. A lot of this, of course, is filtered in washington through the political spectrum. Do you think the Obama Administration and u. S. Policy could have done Something Better leading up to this . And what should we do Going Forward to make sure this is, as you describe, a contained, quick solution . Yeah. You know, i actually think the administration exacerbated it. They didnt hit the alarm bells when they formed the unified government with fatah. We should have immediately cut off aid. I think even the peace talks all that really emboldened hamas and made them feel they were more powerful and more influential than they really were. So, i think, you know, on this point, youve got to walk away from the peace process. You know, hamas is down. You dont want to do anything to let them get back in the game. I think the president s actually played this right. Hes made very strong signals about israels legitimate right to selfdefense. Thats got to be very demoralizing to hamas, because the United States said we would weigh both sides, but the United States says, of course we want the killing to end, wed like a ceasefire, but we stand with israel. Thats not good news if youre sitting in the bunker how many days do you think this will last . You know, i think thats an openended question, but i think were talking days. I dont think were going to see a prolonged occupation, and i dont think were going to see an escalation of violence, because i do actually think if there was escalating violence, i think the israelis would be smart enough to, you know, pack up and go home. All right. James carafano from heritage foundation, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. You bet. Crazy story. Fedex its a drug mule . The overnight Delivery Service is under a federal indictment for Drug Trafficking. Incredible, but true. Well explain that all coming up. And the white House Keeping a close eye on developments in ukraine and the middle east, as weve been talking about. Others have been keeping an eye on how its been handling the incidents. Well get reaction from meet the press moderator David Gregory, coming up. In india we have 400 Million People who dont have electricity and i just figured that its time i do something about it. What were doing right now, along with ibm, is to actually transfer data through a satellite from our wind farms directly onto the cloud. I think we could create a far more efficient system across the whole network where we could actually draw down different kinds of energy based on when its needed by the consumer. A smarter Energy System is made with the ibm cloud. The ibm cloud is the cloud for business. Television announcer mattress discounters 197 mattress sale 197 mattress sale is on now. Bulldog mattress discounters 197 mattress Sale Television announcer right now, you can get a serta mattress, any size, for just 197 each piece when you buy the complete set. Bulldog any size mattress twin, full, queen, or king for one low price and theyll deliver it free. Television announcer the 197 mattress sale. Bulldog oh boy Television Announcer . Is on now. Mattress discounters maybe youve heard the story by now that fedex is under indictment from the u. S. Government for providing shipping services to illegal online pharmacies. The company denying any wrongdoing in this case. Cnbcs senior correspondent, scott cohn, has that story. Scott, this is setting up to be a big legal fight. Yeah, michelle. Fedex is fighting back here. The company says it is innocent, plans to fight the charges, says your privacys at risk as the result of the indictment. But to hear the feds tell it, for at least a decade, the shipping company has been helping internet pharmacies distribute drugs illegally to people who have no prescription, sometimes delivery shipments to parking lots, even though u. S. Authorities have been warning the company for years. Fedex responds, we are a transportation company, we are not Law Enforcement. The company handles more than 10 million packages every day. Fedex shares took a hit when the indictment hit after hours, but today theyve bounced back. Still, some analysts worry about the precedent for the whole industry. There arguably could be a step further on this, assuming that the Transportation Providers would have to take a higher level of responsibility for whats being shipped through multiple customer supply chains. Now, fedexs rival, u. P. S. , settled similar allegations last year for 40 million, plus reforms. By fighting these charges, fedex is raising the stakes. Bill . Crazy. Thanks, scott, very much. So, we want to talk about this. Does the government have a case or not against fedex . Joining us is steven harpers, formerly an adjunct law professor and Mark Lopresti of lopresti law group. Mr. Harper, let me start with you. Where does this come down . Is fedex right or is the government right . Let me just say a couple things. Its always important in these sorts of situations to remember that just because the government says something in a criminal indictment doesnt mean that you have proof beyond a reasonable doubt of criminal activity. No, of course. You can indict a ham sandwich is the old saying. I dont know about that, but the point is there is another side of this story and youre beginning to hear it already from fedex, one of the most important points of which i think was their statement yesterday, that whenever they got information from the government, in terms of an illegal pharmacy, Online Pharmacy operation, they responded immediately to stop shipping to that pharmacy. To me, the broader question goes to the effectiveness of enforcement. If youve got an illegal internet pharmacy, and i dont think anybody thinks we need those, but there are plenty of legal online pharmacies, and those ship by fedex and u. P. S. , too. Mark, let me ask you, on the one hand, fedex says give us the list and well stop shipping to those companies. At the same time, though, when you read the details, they claim that trucks were arriving at parking lots, empty parking lots, where there were numerous people waiting for shipments of pills. Is that a clue . Youre shaking your head on that one, no. I dont think they were jumping on the trucks for their pets. Com shipment to arrive. Listen, anybody thats seen me on the show knows, ive been a rather actors or corporations criminally because the shareholders ultimately pay the price. This is a remarkable situation, quite frankly. The internal emails are tantamount to an admission of guilt. So, while they were simultaneously getting these lists from the government, at the same time, two offices down the hall, they were developing a special Credit Department that was specifically authorized by the cfo, so we have potential sienter on a corporate actor, professor harper id like your thoughts on that, and simultaneously, an internal memo that they are operating outside of the scope of state and federal regulation. This is crazy. I think this is a lot of bluster on the part of fedex. I think theyll ultimately settle. They have to settle. And shareholders will wind up paying the price once again, and thats whats wrong with this situation. Quickly, steven, what do you say . Heres the fundamental issue. Ive read the indictment, too, and what theyre complaining about is when the government shut down one of the illegal providers, then they continued fedex continued to ship as supposedly similar entities affiliated with this illegal provider kept doing business. Well, my question to that is, if thats what was happening, why didnt the federal government shut down the illegal provider . I mean, its hard for me to imagine that fedexs investigative powers are as vast as those of the federal government. The best way to keep somebody from shipping Illegal Drugs is to go to the source and shut them down. And so, its not at all clear to me that youre even close to a criminal responsibility here. Michael yoshikam snink. Lets look from an investment standpoint. If youre an investor in these stocks, what this actually puts in front of investors is, is fedex, or is u. P. S. Going to be responsible for more diligence in term of what they ship or dont ship . If you look at the indictment, i completely agree that if you look at the indictment and you see that there are special divisions being set up to avoid, it would appear, investigators queries of whats happening in this situation, you have to ask yourself, is this going to be hit on the cost structure for these companies . Are they going to be responsible for actually making sure they get clearance for any organization that theyre actually conducting business with . That should be the key from an investment standpoint. Okay. Susan . Shouldnt we in this sort of day in age, talking about more responsibility of corporations, shouldnt that be sort of on the minds of the executives at fedex and at least the board . You cant get fedex to ship to a post office box, let alone shipping to parking lots. Theres obviously something that doesnt smell right there. Mark, youre advising fedex officials. What do you tell them . What im vadvising them is t get to the table and talk settlement. But i think what this highlights, bill, and i think this is a bigger question, so long as individual corporate actors are not doing the perp walk, so long as this kind of conduct is viewed as a cost of doing business that we can account for in the litigation reserves, which is why we saw the stock pop up almost 1 today on this news, this is going to continue. In my opinion, its clear that fedex sat down and said, well, we know this is illegal. Its going to cost us x but thats the spirit of the question. They are a shipping company. They are a shipping company. They are not a Law Enforcement company. Why should they be enforcing drug laws . Well, michelle, number one, im not saying they should be, although one of the things that were going to see coming out of this is whether or not common carriers are held to a higher standard because of the nature of their duty, if you will, in terms of interstate, international commerce. And im not indicating that they become Law Enforcement officials. Quite the opposite. Im usually taking counterpoint in these conversations. But there is such clear evidence in this case to my reading that there was knowledge its just an indictment. And you know the statement. I used to cover local news and every local Prosecutor Says you can indict a ham sandwich if you want, and i bet youve tried, right . So, the indictment is never the whole story. Doesnt sound like Stephen Harpers teaching that at northwestern. Mark, steven, good to see you both. Thank you for joining us today. Get back to that at some point. Earlier today, the president confirmed at least one american is dead as a result of a downing of that malaysian flight 17 yesterday. Were going to head down to d. C. , recap that story and get washingtons reaction to conflict between israel and gaza. Nbcs meet the press moderator, David Gregory, joins us next. Stay with us. Extraordinary week. We want to get back to the biggest stories, the downing of the malaysian flight and the conflict in israel. Meet the press moderator David Gregory joins us now with how washington is responding to both. David, we spent a lot of time this morning talking about the president s response yesterday when he made those very brief comments and then almost started to joke during his speech and then went on to continue fundraising as well. Do you think his discussions today or the way he handled the situation today will ease some of those criticisms . I think so. I think he was much more forceful today. Youve seen from the administration, from the u. N. Representative, ambassador from the administration, Samantha Powers, who spoke forcibly with bullet points detailing the evidence that the administration has that really points the finger at russia and those russiatrained and backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine as being responsible for downing the aircraft. And i think the president said something significant today, in effect that Vladimir Putin has a brief window of opportunity here to calm the situation in ukraine, to defuse it, something hes been unwilling to do up until now. Hes got that brief opportunity to do it, or else there are going to be consequences, namely economic sanctions that will be ratcheted up on russia. But i think the president was pretty clear about pointing fingers at putin and saying, effectively, this is not a problem that stays in the region. This has much broader reach and much more risk for europe than perhaps europe even has been willing to acknowledge. But do you suspect that all of that will be put on hold while they go through the painstaking process of investigation of what exactly brought flight 17 down . Yeah, for some period of time, bill, and i dont know how long that is. Its very difficult. Ive been following some of the scene reports that are ghastly, frankly, where youve got ukrainian separatists who are telling relief workers and those who are processing the scene and trying to recover the bodies that they need to leave and come back the next morning, and the refrigerator trucks cant even take the bodies away. I mean, thats the kind of scene that youre dealing with and the element that youre dealing with on the ground. I dont know what the investigation particularly turns up, but i think theres going to have to be enough transparency around it and enough pressure brought to bear by putin himself, if he can be trusted to get to the bottom of who actually shot this. But i think, the question i have is whether the government even needs to know who pushed the button or whether theres enough circumstantial evidence of where this happened that there were separatists involved, that they control the area, that the cia knows there were Weapons Systems capable of firing these missiles within the separatists control in that area, and they just shot down other planes recently and your report suggests that sanctions could come sooner rather than later. Right. There was an article in the wall street journal earlier this week, big headline that said arc of unrest not seen since the 1970s. And a lot of discussion about whether or not u. S. Foreign policy is so weak right now that it has led to this arc of instability is that weve seen around the world. Is that going to be discussed at all . Do you think thats going to be a criticism launched at the president . Well, its already a criticism that has been launched at the president , in his handling of the middle east, and even dealing with Vladimir Putin, who clearly has seized on some weakness. He grabbed crimea. That is gone without punishment beyond the sanctions, and thats not insignificant. But the fact is that the United States and European Countries have not been shoulder to shoulder enough to really persuade Vladimir Putin that hes got to stop and defuse this crisis, and that is the broader security threat. Its not just a regional threat. I mean, i think the downing of this flight proves that. And now this is really going to become a moment for the president not just to work the europeans, but to keep making the case about Vladimir Putin, about the danger of russia, why this is not a localized problem. I think using the bully pulpit is something that well see more from him. And i think he did a fair amount of that today. All right. David, as always, thank you. Well see you next week and well see you this sunday on meet the press as well. Thanks. Ill be there. Thanks. David will be following more on the flight of flight 17, the investigation into all of that. Tune in to meet the press on sunday to get all the details. Check your local listings for show time. Coming up, one of wall streets longest running soap operas burning up on cnbc. Com. Herbalife and their archnemesis are at it again. Find out what the latest chapter is on the hot list, next. By the way, be sure to tune in to closing bell on monday, while were thinking about it. Nemesis are at it again. And on monday, six flags ceo will join us to talk earnings and the seasons hottest rides. Well be back after this. When i spent 5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. And i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at Office Supply stores. With ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. Travel, gift cards, even cash back. And my rewards points wont expire. So you can make owning a business even more rewarding. Ink from chase. So you can. Start a team. Join a team. Walk to end alzheimers. Visit alz. Org walk today. So, after a week with international turmoil, people are checking websites about risk. Lets check in with alan wasserman. Investors are unloading risk, but keeping it in the market. Away from small caps and highyield junk bonds. The soap opera, herbalife, ramping up the p. R. Campaign, tweeting it out as the worst of wall street. And bill ackman is saying its a ponzi scheme. And lawrence of our staff look a look at it. People love that. And finally, the end of the 40hour workweek. Instead, its the 45 or 50hour workweek. 1 in 5 saying they work more than 50 hours. Those are the ones bubbling up right now. How about the fourday workweek . Well, i would love that. But its ten to 12 hours over the four days. But then, you have three days off. Once upon a time, it was a sixday work week. Thank you very much. We got netflix, chi poet lay, apple, a slew of reports coming out next week. And well look back at the week that was. Thats next. Esents on your own. Helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. And save on taxes where you can. So you can invest in the life that you want today. Tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. Call or come in today for a free oneonone review. Dad hes our broker. He helps looks after all our money. Kid do you pay him . Dad of course. Kid how much . Dad i dont know exactly. Kid what if youre not happy . Does he have to pay you back . Dad nope. Kid why not . Dad it doesnt work that way. Kid why not . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management at Charles Schwab your studied day and night for her drivers test. Secretly inside, you hoped she wouldnt pass. The thought of your baby girl driving around all by herself was. You just werent ready. 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A lot of earnings, michael, what are you looking for here . Im looking for positive earnings. I cant hear him. Robert . I think the shadow is inflati inflation. I think its possible everything will go fine, but we could be behind the curve, and find out the fed is too far behind the curve on inflation. Im just wondering if well get the overvalued sectors, but what about the undervalued sectors. Thats in Janet Yellens newsletter coming soon. Michael . Ill be there in a couple of weeks, and it will be easier then. Well, numbers have been good so far. The top line, its starting to happen, and i think thats where the market is running. Im watching secretary kerry next weekend. I think its important to pursue Diplomatic Solutions in gaza and ukraine, and deescalate the situation as president obama talked about, its important. And there will always be Something Else. No one could have foreseen the week we have. Melissa lee, whats coming up on fast money . Were going to have stock picks. No, were going to talk about the potential for stock deals from pharma. Fast money starts now. Our traders tonight what a difference a day makes. Stocks staging a big comeback today. The nasdaq and russell 2000 coming back. Is the market giving investors the allclear sign . Well, i think its just recovery. You had a cover