Europe right now. The bull market is not done. Theres no reason to believe it should be done at this point. Pete . I tend to agree with jon. But i think its getting fatigued. I think theres a little bit of tire. If it was a mile and youve run three lapse, were on that fourth lap and its hard to get that momentum back weve seen in the past. Some may be listening to this conversation and saying, look, guys, why are we talking about whether the bull markets dead, it was over already. Sectors biotech down 40 from the high. Energy, 36. Transports down 30. Financials, 23. Materials, 27. Hasnt the market been in a bear market . Well, we certainly pushed down pretty far. I think the reason people havent accepted weve been in a little bit of a bear market is the fact that this snapback has been so sudden. Its like that bear market lasted all of about two seconds. Look at the differences weve seen, judge, from that oil price of 26 to 37, volatility intersections across the board, from oil to s p, from extremes dropping back down. There has been a dramatic shift. The exports is a great example that has been in a bear market. The people against this bull market will say, you dont see any rev knew growth, you dont see margins going any higher. When you look at these sectors, not just transports about industrials in general or tech or retail, to leaheyve been be down so much, you can see it going higher. You have to be sectorspecific going forward. You have a great segue to a webcast yesterday which said this about the market. I notice theres a lot of belief right now in risk markets. I think that risk markets now have a very poor risk reward setup. If we use the stock market as a proxy, it seems to me that the s p 500 maybe has 2 of upside, and probably 20 of downside for a 10 to 1 risk reward ratio. Okay. More clarity on that, he was telling me a few moments ago, jim lebenthal, Profit Margins are declining, eps is not rising, junk bonds remain depressed and will not rally further unless oil breaks to the upside, which seems unlikely. The fed has been tightening for two or three years. Sounds like elevated risk to me. Why not you . Claria couple of points here. Dont look at the market as a whole. Look at sectors. You can certainly find sectors were revenues and earnings per share will decline. High yield has been a concern. But for the last three weeks, youve actually seen inflows into high yield bond funds. Thats a good sign. It doesnt mean theyre right. The way i look at it you just tossed that off. You cant look at markets anymore, the top line. I think those are driven by machines. And in fact markets have been in a bear market because the average stock is down more than 20 . Look at the sectors i just ripped through. I almost went through the entire market. Right. I think theres opportunities. I agree with jeff on the market. Its fully valid relative to where Earnings Growth will be. It doesnt mean were going to go down 20 . Its just a question of where youre going to be selective. If youre buying markets, youre probably okay here to some extent, because the downside, i believe, is limited, because again, the machines and the algos. If youre buying stocks, there are great opportunities there. Grundlach also pointed out, oil is the key to everything. Its what weve talked about every day. Look at the moves weve had. The pushdown pulled everything down, the financials, all the transports, as oil plummeted. And as weve had this rally, were starting to see the boats float to the top. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. But judge, as we saw that rebound, take a look at russia. Russia is up 9 , i believe, the rsx year to date. Take a look at brazil, 23 year to date. Those big recoveries are because of what energy has done so far. The former leader down there. Lula. Thank you. That is one of the reasons brazil made that move. You can look at australia, canada. Any of the commodity economies right now that were in so much trouble, look at them versus the s p 500. And that tells you the difference between our market, flat, and those markets, running. Theyll be sorely disappointed. People hanging their hats are returning to a bull market. Im not going to disagree with you. Whats happening now is people looking to the second half of the year. Everybody, no matter how bearish they are, has been saying oil is going to recover in the second half. Youve had andy hall, its been a tough couple of years, still long term track record, bottom is now in. John watson, chevron ceo yesterday, on this network, bottom. Bottom is in. Others starting to call bottom. Jack welch on squawk alley. Thats exactly right. Before, you didnt know the downside. The bottoms possibly accrued at 25, 26. Now i know my downside. Now im taking a look at the upside. Im saying it could be significant. It just depends on the timing. I dont think were done yet with high yield in particular, because well see massive credit downgrades. Oil trades at 40, that doesnt mean these troubles are in less trouble. Theyre still pumping for coupons and that runs out. I have four people sitting in front of me who think the bull market is alive and well, weve just had a hibernation period. Alive and well and tired. I would add tired to my side of this whole thing. Listen, weve had two 12 plus corrections in the last seven months or so. Thats a meaningful market movement, twice in a row, that may actually take care of the bear market reset people are thinking about. And buying stocks . Yes. Sometimes ill raise cash. Judge, to the point of, you know, when you say financials are down, you know, 20 , and biotechs down 30 , you named all those different sectors at the top of the show, thats the very reason we can go higher. Because we have had those corrections. In other words, if all those were still at the alltime highs, if we were still whether its an ibb or however you want to measure it, if niece were all at the alltime highs still, then i would say, well, the greater fool theory, who comes in and buys them here at these levels . Enough of those have corrected so significantly that theres plenty of money to make by coming in there and buying them, not just the dash for cash, by buying chevron, conoco phillips. Weve had conversation almost every day as to the come back in certain sectors has been dramatic. Theres energy off of its lows. What about boiotech . I like biotech. Biotech was one of the leaders into the abyss. Why has it failed to come back . Because of the politics that are going on right now on both sides, in my opinion. I mean, its not just the democratic side. Its the republican side as well. There has been a bashing towards the biotech world, including even the big pharma names, scott. I keep looking at these names. Biotech was 40 at its recent low off of the high. Biotech has only rallied back 5 . When the market was up 1 ab actually up 2 , 2. 3 . Momentum cuts both ways. It carried it further than it should, and its dropped it further than you should. Theres a report put out by the government that said, pricing is actually it showed charts from the government, pricing has been coming down. Its the number of scripts written thats going up, and its population growth. Its the smallest component of cost. I dont think thats going to be one of the issues that either party attacks when they get elected. From a market at some poista jim, whats really changed, other than the fact that the dow and s p and nasdaq are 9 higher than they were at the low, fundamentally whats changed . Whats changed is that im not saying nothing necessarily has. You make the argument that things have changed. Right. Fundamentally whats changed is the market and its participants have grown accustomed to and are now can we with the rate at which chinas Economic Growth is slowing. Theyve grown accustomed to and comfortable with the rate of growth, low though it is but positive, in europe. Theyve given up on the idea that the u. S. Is going into recession. Thats whats changed thats the most important, scott. Totally agree. Everybody was talking just a couple of weeks ago, all about negative rates and all this type of thing. The sentiment has changed, to jims point. And some of the numbers have certainly changed, absolutely. When you look at whats really rallied significantly, judge, look at the rally in copper, in oil, in the commodity space itself. Iron ore and all the rest, i get it. And significant moves over in china in steel itself that have been part of this, which has been not recorded at all, but some of the layoffs theyre talking about in china. Think about that and take a look why a report came out last night, late last night from china, that theyre padding the purchases. Theyre doing it all, as i said yesterday, to get the currency out. And theyre even inflating agreements and prices and making agreements where theres no purchase of any materials. Nobodys buying this bull market on the belief that china is going to be a contributor going lower. I want to make this point. The s p 500 is currently at a level that it was originally at 20 months ago. 20 months. And during that time youve had three corrections. Three distinct corrections. So the question is why have we not had a bear market . Im saying weve had the equivalent amount of pain as a bear market over the last 20 minutes. Some would argue we have had a bearing mark market. Youre right. Im adding the numbers on the s p 500. You are correct, if youre a value investor, it has felt an awful lot like a bear market. Had an fed hikes rates again in the summer . Were so low, it doesnt matter. When i think of bull markets, i think of roaring bull markets where theres high correlation and basically everything is going up and its very forgiving. In this Market Going Forward you wont see the huge gains weve seen in 13 and 10 and 09. Plus you can get penalized if you misstep. You have to do your work and be more careful. You cant buy the market. You have to buy individual stocks. Well make that the last word. Coming up on the half time report, the debate thats raging on the half time report desk. Thats what i thought. Which president ial candidate is best for the markets . Up next, a strategists with nearly a trillion dollars under management weighs in with his vote. Plus the magic number for oil. At what point does the rally in crude start hurting the market instead of helping . Were looking at our crystal ball for answers. Can you see it . Where is it . And up in smoke. Cigarettes may not be healthy but theyre profitable. Can the big rally in big be tobo keep going . All ahead on the Halftime Report. This is the pursuit of perfection. I have. Johnny i have. Woman is that a newspaper . Man yes. Woman its quaint. Man did you read about this latest cyber attack . Woman yeah, i read it on my watch. Man funny. Woman they took out the whole network. Man they had to hand out pens and paper. Woman yeah. Man could it happen to us . Woman no. Were okay. Man we are . Woman yeah, we brought in some new guys. Man what do they know that we dont . Woman that you cant run a country with pens and paper. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. Were always looking for ways to speed up your Car Insurance search. Heres the latest. Problem is, we havent figured out how to reverse it. For now, just log on to compare. Com. Plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. Choose the lowest and hit purchase. Now. If youll excuse me, im late for an important function. Compare. Com. Saving humanity from high insurance rates. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. The s p 500 is up nearly 12 points, onehalf of 1 led by energy, materials, and technology. A stunning upset last night for Bernie Sanders in michigan, perhaps giving the underdog candidate some new life in his battle with Hillary Clinton. Well, on the republican side, donald trump picking up three more key victories. Joining us with what the races mean to your money is david lafferty, live today in boston. David, welcome, good to talk to you. Thanks for having me. You make the point here that in a trump versus clinton election, that clinton is better for the stock market. Why . Well, you know, its a bit counterintuitive. I dont think necessarily her policies would be more pro business and push stocks up. But i think she brings far less uncertainty. Trump is really the wild card. And i think the markets dont like uncertainty. You know, in terms of investors portfolios, it probably doesnt make a lot of sense to talk about total returns and how geopolitics will affect it. But it certainly matters in terms of the volatility that clients will experience. And i think trump brings more volatility to the markets. In fact you think the longer that donald trump continues to sort of rack up victories and the more apparent it becomes that hell rack up the nomination itself, that volatility is only going to increase . I think thats true. I think that as we get later in the year, as we get more results, and we approach the convention, i think its certainly going to weigh on the markets a little bit. Again, i think it will weigh more on day to day volatility. The bumpiness of the market, we tend to be longer term investors, so i dont know that it will matter two to three years from now. But i certainly think he brings far more volatility and far more uncertainty. And thats going to show up in june, july, and august in all likelihood. So what should we take from todays market . Last night you had a resounding defeat for hillary, a surprise. You have a socialist that won michigan on the democratic side. And you have trump, where others were doubting his strength going into last night, winning convincingly, and some doubting him are now throwing in the towel and saying hes going to be the nominee. And the market today is up pretty nicely. It would seem to me the market is telling us on a short term basis with basically no other news, that it prefers trump. Yeah, i dont know if the movement were seeing today is all about last nights results. I actually think were probably in more of a holding pattern, waiting for the ecb. I think the view is still that well see the forward guidance. Thats given a little bit of a lift to the market. You guys were talking before the break. I still think weve had much better macroeconomic news off the february 11th bottom. The last two to three weeks has been pretty good. I think thats what youre seeing in the movement today, just a continuation of the last a couple of weeks. I dont know that the market is discounting hillarys struggles in michigan and mr. Trumps strength in the other primaries. I dont think thats what youre seeing today. Is the bull market alive and well and just has paused a bit, or is it over . Its not over. Somebody in the prior segment said its not a raging bull market, and i would completely agree with that. I think we grind higher here on earnings. You guys mentioned the sevenYear Anniversary. If you go back to the march 09 bottom, since then the market basically has gone up 50 of that, of the increase in the price of the s p 500 has come from Earnings Growth, and 50 from multiple expansion. Earnings growth will be okay. But the multiple expansion game is over. So the market still moves higher from here in the long run, next year or two. But it doesnt move significantly higher because it doesnt have the tail wind of multiple expansion. You like financials here. Weve been speaking of sectors that have rallied back from the abyss. This appears to be one group thats done well. Yeah, i think the comment made previously is true. I mean, we talk about the markets broadly speaking. And i think overall, again, we struggled to move higher. It will be an okay market in general but not great. But when you break it up into the sectors, there are cheap places and there are expensive places. Financials, particularly the banks, we dont have massively optimistic expectations for earnings, but theyre priced as if theyre going out of business, and we think thats far too good of a valuation to ignore banks. Financials should have significantly better than market growth. On the flip side, utilities in this tech Interest Rate environment, people are massively overpaying for dividends, when and if the big unwind ever comes, the extra 1 or 2 dividend you made in utilities probably is going to pale in comparison to the underperformance of the sector. So overall, stocks look okay. As one of your hosts said, the real opportunity is within different sectors. Gotcha. Thanks very much, we appreciate your time. Dave lafferty. Were having a debate right now on this political question. Doc, ill give you 30 seconds. You tell jim why you think donald trump is better for the markets and hes going to retort. Well, i think david thought there would be more volatility going into the summer was because that he believes, as he ends up owning this nomination, jim, that its going to be negative for the market. And i completely disagree. I think he goes more towards the middle as we go towards that actual the Cleveland Convention for the republicans. I think thats going to be a very positive thing. And i think that on the other hand, many of his stances against some of the excesses on wall street are things the American Public will love. I hope youre right. As we always say on this show, hope is not a strategy. True. What im worried about in particular, you know im exmilitary, is Foreign Policy with donald trump. This is a guy who is prone to saying really offthecuff, off the wall remarks. So consider that youve got, say, north korea, who is also prone to making off the wall, offthecuff remarks, like, you know, im going to use a Preemptive Nuclear strike here at some point in time. How do you think donald trump will respond to that . I dont know. And thats what the concern is, because you really want the most serious person in that office to respond in a way that wont give the world the impression that maybe were going to nuclear war. I cant rule that out with him. What makes you think that donald trump is going to most likely move towards the center . Because i think overall hes a centrist. And hes a smart guy, and thats what candidates do. You indicator to the extremes like obama did, he catered to his extreme, then he got the nomination, went to the center, then back to the extreme. Thats what you do in the election process. I will say for hillary shes damn into ttuitive in the cattl market. She outtraded goldman in the speeches. But i think trump, people recognize hes businessman. What hes saying now is to get elected. Barrons is wrong again too, which made the argument over the weekend that Hillary Clinton is better for the market . You look at days when hes had big victories. The market is not down on those big days, judge. To davids point, again, if the market were so volatile and so concerned about mr. Trump and his successes that hes been piling success and win after win after win, if they were so upset about it, people would be hitting the exits, not pouring more money into the market. Can we draw a distinction between good for the market and better than the alternative . Because im on the latter side. Im hoping the senate and house of representatives has the right makeup to prevent anybody in the oval was office from doing someg stupid. Coming up on Halftime Report, investing in mans best friend. Why americans spent an estimated 60 million on pets last year. Find out what stocks are benefitted the most from that. Plus Mother Health scare hits chipotle. Should you be buying the dip . Thats ahead in the blitz. Jake reese, day to feel alive jake reese, day to feel alive jake reese, day to feel alive here at the Td Ameritrade they work all the time. Sup jj, working hard . Working 24 7 on mobile trader, rated 1 trading app on the app store. It lets you trade stocks, options, futures. Even advanced orders. And it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. You work so late. I guess you dont see your family very much . I see them all the time. Did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey . Td ameritrade. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Four trades on four stocks making news today. First up is chipotle, closing a restaurant in massachusetts after a health scare, stocks down nearly 5 . The good news was it wasnt customers getting sick, it was their own employees getting sick. Thats good news . Thats the good news. There is no good news as far as somebody getting sick. Where are you going with that, doc . Judge, im trying to put some lipstick on that. So in other words, if youre not getting customers sick and instead youre getting your own employees sick, youve got a problem. I didnt know where he was going. Its not over yet for chipotle. General mills, increasing its dividend by 5 , jim. The dividend yield on General Mills is now 3 . We were talking earlier this week on how Consumer Staples have gotten expensive. Trades at 25 times this years earnings, 25 times next years earnings. Thats too pricey. If youre looking for more dividend increases, bear in mind its payout ratio is in the 70s, thats awfully high. Its been a good run but time to get out. Pick your mike up there, fix your mike. Steve weiss, valeant appointing three new directors, including pershing squares vice chairman. A positive piece of news. Im not sure its an investable asset yet. I would rather go elsewhere. Its not even cheap. And blue buffalo beating estimates on the top and the bottom line, blue buffalo pet, that is, up 21. 5 . Natural pet feed. People are flocking to this thing. They not only beat on the top line but on the revenue as well. You look at their forecast, that impressed the street. You look at the valuation levels, still very cheap, especially if you go forward, these numbers were outstanding. Coming up, at what point does higher oil become a head wind instead of a tail wind for the markets . The traders are naming their number, plus bell bottoms, velour jump suits, and gold with its best year since 74. What do you do now . Well go to the futures to find out. Trolling for a gig with braindrone . Cant blame you. Its a drone you control with your brain, which controls your thumbs, which control this joystick. No, im actually over at the ge booth. Were creating the operating system for industry. Its called predix. Its gonna change the way the world works. Ok, im telling my brain to tell the drone to get you a copy of my resume. Umm, maybe keep your hands on the controller. Look out ohhhhhhhhhh. You know what, im just gonna email it to you. Yeah thats probably safer. Ok, cool. This just got interesting. So why pause to take a pill . And why stop to find a bathroom . 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Contact your health plan for the latest information. And you may now be covered. Were always looking for ways to speed up your Car Insurance search. Heres the latest. Problem is, we havent figured out how to reverse it. For now, just log on to compare. Com. Plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. Choose the lowest and hit purchase. Now. If youll excuse me, im late for an important function. Compare. Com. Saving humanity from high insurance rates. Hello, everyone, im sue herera. Here is our nbc update. Former gop president ial candidate Carly Fiorina threw her support behind marco rubio today, saying he is the only candidate who can take the nomination away from donald trump and beat the democrats. Well have to beat donald trump at the ballot box. The only guy who can beat donald trump is ted cruz. Two palestinian gunmen who carried out stabbings in israel were shot and killed by police, following a rash of assaults yesterday that killed an american student just as Vice President joe biden arrived in israel. U. S. Army troops conducting a live fire drill near the border with north korea. An Artillery Brigade launched a volley of rockets near the heavily fortified border. Nearly 17,000 u. S. Troops are participating in the souths annual military drills. One down, four to go. Googles Computer Program defeating its south korean human counterpart in the first game of an historic fivegame match. The victory in the ancient chinese board game go is a break through in Artificial Intelligence and pretty much stunned the south korean contestant. Back to you, guys. Sue, thanks so much. Oil and stocks have been moving in tandem and bottomed on the very same day. Is there a point when the oil rally stops helping stocks . I cant believe that were going here, mike. Were dying for oil to go up. And now were worried about when its going to hurt the market. Im just trying to look ahead to the next story line, scott. Im not saying that this is todays business, because you didnt have to look further than this mornings action to show how the oil market continues to lead the stock market around. But there has to be a price at which the good things that Higher Oil Prices brings, which is calm to the credit markets, dispelling inflation fears, all that stuff is made better by Oil Prices Going up. Thats where stocks have created. At what price level do they start to become a negative . The way that would happen is if the drag on official inflation measures that is now being applied by oil prices being so far below their highs is going to start to go away if oil gets to 45 a barrel or much above 45. The year over year, youll be flat for oil prices before too long if that happens relatively soon. Its going to start to nudge those inflation measures higher. That then becomes a question of does the fed have to get more aggressive, do they take the opportunity to have inflation go into their target zone and say we can do a couple of more rate increases this year. Right now the stock market doesnt want to hear that the fed is getting more motivated to do more on short term Interest Rates. Sure. Mike, except theres one thing you have to think about that. When we look at inflation, we look at cpi and corps numbee nu ppi. Exfood and energy. It shouldnt figure into the inflation equation. Dont you think its more of a case of the rate of change with oil pricing . I mean, we were at 100 oil without inflation being an issue whatsoever. I dont think its about genuine inflation being corrosive or being a really big scare, steve. If you look at the way marketbased expectations have been moving, if you look at the bond market indicators, it moves right with crude oil. If you take a look at the new york survey of consumer expectations, it moves right with retail gasoline prices. So i do think what wall start to see is the fed watchers say this gives the clearance for the fed to do so. Its been waiting for inflation. Thanks, mike, interesting stuff. Mike santoli. You guys have numbers . 70, 75. When you really look at it, did we really ever see the benefits we thought we were going to see with lower oil . We didnt really see it trickle in. We saw far more of the negatives than the positives. If oil gets up toward 70, 75. Unless were just looking in the wrong places to see it. We got some, probably, but not nearly the amount that i think the market was expecting. I think we expected far more impact on markets across the board. I think it could be 100. Its not the number, its the speed . Exactly. I think were missing a very important point here. Were talking about the macroeconomic effect here on the fed and inflation measures. I dont think thats where its going to hurt. I think as soon as you hear airlines, auto companies, Chemical Companies start to talk about missing earnings because of Higher Energy prices, the instant that happens youre going to see a very snapback reaction in the market to Higher Oil Prices. And i think thats possibly as low as 50 on oil. Doc, youre 60 to 65 . I am, judge, because we broke down last summer from the 66 level to 45. And then so in other words, in that 45 to 55 dollar level, i think were fine with that. These are great for conversation. Mikes conversation is what it means for the fed from an inflation standpoint if it spurs the fed to make a move. You guys are talking about more the Economic Impact of a number. Theres two different conversations. Each would have two different effects on the market. I think the market would have a lot of input, just like it has with the falling price of crude oil as far as its impact on various high yield bonds and all the banks that may still have exposure to that. So i think that is one issue that is different at that higher level, judge, than it is for the fed. So they cant just look at one thing. They have to look at both. Lets still with commodities. Gold is falling today. Despite todays pullback, still the best start of the year for gold that weve seen since 1974. Lets talk about the gold rally here. Do you think even despite what were seeing today that its got a little bit more room to run . I think its mostly over. For the people who follow me on twitter, ive gotten out of twothirds of my gold longs because the story has changed. The tenyear yields are closer to 1. 9. We were moving the fed from talking about four tightenings to a much more reasonable level of closer to none. If that changes, and we start to price in some easing, maybe gold will run again. But right now i think the story is played out. Im still a tiny bit long. If it trades below 1238 to 1235ish in the april contract, thats where i get out. Scott, do you agree with jims point of view . What are your levels . He says its mostly over, the rally is mostly over. I think its completely over. We had a double key reversal. Gold traded above 1275 on the fourth and the eighth. On both of those days it closed lower and a key reversal top is horrible for any commodity. Weve seen it sell off since then. Right now its an at support. Thats defined by the daily lows since january. If we get below this level and below 1230, well be at 1175 by the end of april. For more on gold, well talk more about it on the live show tomorrow, 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. Scott said of gold, the rally is completely over. Agree or disagree . Disagree. Everything weve seen in the paper and the rally is telling us a completely different story. Whether or not the paper is right, but thats what i gauge things off of. We see nothing but buyers. Im still in the gdx. Ive trimmed my position in the real portfolio. Ahead on the Halftime Report, the brothers najarian have a trade on an energy name. Plus someone on this desk is blowing away the competition in the halftime portfolio. A check on the leaderboard and a trade update are next. Announcer Halftime Report is the place for market moving interviews. Time and time again, you can make money. Announcer real money. Homebuilding stocks have the most money. Announcer the most of the probably hour of the trading day. Halftime report, weekdays at noon eastern. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Im spending too muchs for time hiringnter. And not enough time in my kitchen. announcer need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over 100 of the webs leading job boards with a single click. Then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. You put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. Makes my job a lot easier. announcer over 400,000 businesses have already used ziprecruiter. And now you can use ziprecruiter for free. Go to ziprecruiter. Com offer2 tavi gevinson. Trendsetter, tastemaker, and teenager. Watson, you sound like a fan. Millions look to you for advice. I know. I cant believe it. I am learning to analyze social media to spot trends and predict demand. Sounds like you spend a lot of time online . I constantly absorb online content to follow shifts in pop culture. So. Youre learning to think like a teenager . Yes. How am i doing . Well. Uh. Coming up on power lunch, the bull market turns lucky number seven. Also ahead, the politics of poison. New poll results on how voters really view the president ial frontrunners. And why flower power could be to blame for a huge commodity strike. Thanks, see you in 15 minutes. Right now were on twitter running a poll asking is the bull market over. The current vote is 57 say no. Two ponytails on the desks means two servings of options trade. What do you say today . Judge, we know starboard is involved with yahoo . We believe theyre going to try to get something done before this activist deadline hits. What were seeing is a big run in yahoo over the last little bit here. And now, today, we saw somebody buy a million shares of stock in yahoo . And they bought 30,000 puts. What does this do . It gives you a big vshaped graph like that. Theyre looking for a movement, perhaps that bid from verizon that could be coming because they havent spoken with the board yet. Starboard gets control of the board, i think this stock rocks. Youre riding shotgun on this . I am, a bought calls today. Pete . The spider oil and gas. We talk about oil and gas. Xop is something we dont talk about. You can see this nice move, it just broke above the 50day moving average. As a matter of fact in trading right around levels where it is right now, maybe a little bit lower, they started coming aggressively early this morning for the april 32 calls. Theyre very aggressively coming after these. About 4600 of them traded. 50 cents was the level when they started to buy. I bought as well, scott, i plan on being in this a couple of weeks. That buys some time for me to be right. See you in a moment. Coming up next, light em up. Why wells fargo is naming one tobacco stock its top pick. And lets take a look at the worst performing stocks since the start of the bull market. Not surprising, energy names across the board. Southwestern down 74. Chesapeake down 68 . Diamond offshore. Vo know you have a dedicated advisor and team who understand where you come from. We didnt really have anything, you know. But, we made do. Vo know you can craft an Investment Plan as strong as your values. Al, how you doing. Hey, mr. Hamilton. Vo know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. With the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc Wealth Management team. Philip morris hitting new highs today after being named a top pick at wells fargo, that firm seeing a potential catalyst from cigarette manufacturers reduced risks product. Bonnie herzog, analyst, joins us now, welcome. Make the case for Philip Morris. I basically made Philip Morris my new top stock pick. We purchased a deep dive analysis on their reduced risk product that theyve put out into the marketplace or commercialized internationally. Based on the analysis, we think that business could be incremental for Philip Morris. Altria gets a piece of this action. Worth 10 for altria. Taking price targets, i tuck Philip Morris up by 15 to 110 and up on altria to 70. Bonnie, im just curious, yo make a recommendation like this, it seems like such a tough stock, because so many people are voting against you. I mean in health care, in education, todays youth, really at the very least moving to vaping. Doesnt it concern you there are so many forces aligned against smoking right now. You have to remember there are individuals around the world that smoke and have for a very long time. So i think what the opportunity here is to reduce the risk on a global basis. As they continue to put more technology or Better Technology and convert existing users to these reduced risk products, to me, its a win win. Based on Clinical Trials that theyve already published, theyre very promising. They have looked at what the effects have been, and it is close to if they didnt smoke at all, or the cessation. It appears promising. So this might be embrace on a glow basis. Pete najarian has something for you. How did you choose this as your topic over reynolds, huge growth were seeing. As you probably know, it has been our topic for about a year and a half. So we still like the stock, we still have an out perform rating on the stock. Ive switched up my batting order. I think from here on, in the next year or two, i think there is more upside potential in Phillip Morris and ichos is the catalyst. It gives them a competitive advantage because of the first mover that they have with this heat not burn product, as well as the ability to brand it with marlboro globally. Anybody in play for consolidation or that done. I think another thing thats going to happen is continued global consolidation. Another part of the call this morning is that we actually think there is some chance that Phillip Morris and ultra reunite, combineppening in term savings, i think that it better lines their interest, it gives them more geographic. An opportunity for Phillip Morris and ultra to again come together. Sure. Bonnie, appreciate the time today. Thanks so much. Thank you. Wells fargo, bonnie herzog. Relevant question for a lot of people. Thats why i wont buy them. I wont be involved in them. Just from a social standpoint. So many other stocks i own, i dont want to support the company. I totally agree. I dont want to sound trite, but you continually have the older generation dying off, and the Younger Generation doesnt want to smoke. She raises a point that internationally, there may be people who want to smoke, but thats going to change over time. With all the knowledge, international smoking has to go down. It damages the economy, it kills people. So its not Good Business to kill your customers. Okay. Lets take a quick look at the leader board in our half time portfolio competition. Jim has that big lead now. Wow. Distancing himself from the others, joe is now in second place with a portfolio gain of 6 . Thats where john is, sirrot and the other auto people have a lot of work do. I did, i bought devon energy. Another one of those stocks in the energy space. Bought it this morning. Stock has already worked for me. I hope it keeps going. Unusual activity was out, i believe a month into the future, judge. Saw likely be in the trade for any where from two weeks to a month. Okay. Were going to take a quick break. Follow the action at cnbc. Com slash pro. Second half of the trading day and a look ahead at what could happen tomorrow and how you should play it, next. At ally bank, no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like social media equals antisocial. Hey guys, i want you to meet my fiancee, denise. Hey. Good to meet you dennis. Can a a subconscious. Mind . A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . We believe in the power of active management. Management, by debating our research to find the best investments. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. All right, the European Central bank set to meet tomorrow. Joining us at the wall for what to watch, highly anticipated meeting. It absolutely is, scott. Once again, were coming into the meeting expectations so high, expected to cut rates deeper into negative territory, expand monetary, and extend qe by three to six months, this as europe continues to battle slow inflation. Will he be able to deliver the goods. You know he has been known for undelivering. Were currently seeing the lower trade ahead of tomorrows meeting, slightly higher today but down on the year. The focus will be on the european banks. Negative rates, not good for banking profitability. If the deposit rate gets cut again, it could heighten concerns around the health of europes banking sector. Tiered Interest Rate policy like japan did, that would be seen as less of a negative. Interest rates tomorrow, lastly, have to keep an eye on gold. Market volatility with has helped gold rally this year, currently up around 19 in 2016. All eyes on tomorrow. Of course what he says will likely influence what japan says next week. Thank you so much. What do you think happens tomorrow . Does draghi under deliver again . The guesses are another ten to 20 dips, taking negative rates to 30 to 40, but the bigger question, what does he do on the other side, asset buying. Right now theyre buying 60 billion euros a month. Thats where the bigger surprise could come from. The expectation will be easier. If they buy security portfolios and go out and do that, it will drive the economy more. Thats where the market is looking. Nobody is terribly optimistic. What is priced in is the 30 bips, its making its way in the market. Lets move on. Square reports after the bell today, i think whats most significant about that is that weve got an exclusive with jack dorcey, kaley does in the closing bell today. You know shes going to k about twitter as well. Your thoughts. I actually like both right here, judge. I like square, and i know jack is being stretched and pulled in Different Directions with these two firms. But i think square is in a sweet spot, and it certainly has a great endorsement of a lot of you would be a buyer why . Yes, i would. Thanks. Power lunch begins now. Thank you, scott, this is a very special day today, in case you didnt know. Welcome to power lunch, michelle, tyler is on assignment. Milestone for your money. Seven Year Anniversary of the bull market and all you loyal viewers might recall the late great mark haines calling the market bottom. However, im going to step out on a limb here. Hold on, everyone, were waiting. I think were at the bottom. I really do. Run through some of the staggering stats of this bull