Bit of a bounce. Not much. Were not going down. Trend aint your friend. Its been a downside. Look, target, it was. Reporter 225. Right. So i mean, that obviously isnt good for the banks. I think the fundamental story still stands strong for many of the banks, but obviously, this is one of the pieces that theyd like to they would love if this thing started to move and we had a 26. I dont know that were going to see it, scott, but theyll survive and theyll do just fine even in the environment right now. Yeah, if you look, joe, in the pags month, venture down 5 . They are. How does the trend reverse if rates continue go down . As some suggest if that trend continues, the whole market is going to fall part. I respectfully disagree been its more how does it go back. Lets talk about bank of america. 17 in november, 25, 50 at its high point, somewhere around there, 23. 50 today. Folks are talking about the move in bank of america being over. The financials are trading at the upper end they downgraded it and say theres not much left to play for. Well theyre wrong. Theres a lot to play for. Meryl lynch monetizing, there is an improving consumer whos spending. And i think the overall environment for financials are what is the next catalyst to advance it from the consolidation range that its in right now . If you dont think rates are going to rebound from where they are now, why would you buy a bank stock . A lot of reasons actually. Youre right. Youre making my point. Deals, deals, deals. First and foremost, you do to want respect the bond market. Absolutely, no doubt about it. Thats number one. After i lot to say, hold on. The bottom market obviously yields are disappointing. I think its reflecting that we are seeing slower First Quarter gdp. We have apprehension about washington for sure. Europe, we have these rates we have the elections. Clearly rates are very volatile. I dont want to see it goat 225, banks are not going to outperform, however, it could take longer term horizon. Earnings to be good. The economy to pick up from here, led by some manufacturing, consumer, i still think the Balance Sheets are strong. Capital levels are strong. Across the board in the market. Loan growth is weak. I expect that to pick up. I think youre also going to see if the fed does raise rates, better anymores, better Net Interest Income and you can see jim kraim we are us yesterday. Heres what jim told us what he needs to see for banks to start working again. We need to see a decent, strong march. We unemployment number. Its got to be really good. We have to keep the two. It allows to continue on the banks ian if we get 2. 3 flat on the ten year. But if question lose the two thesis. I will be wrong on my liking of the banks. I like the banks. You know i like the banks. And i like it for all the reasons, stephanie im with you, all the reasons you said in addition to the deals that are going on. I mean, youre seeing record issuings of Investment Grade debt right now. First quarter, we havent seen volumes like that. Whos leading the pack . Jpmorgan, b of v and city. You look at bma transactions and the ipo market. I got youl of a that. Listen to what kramer said. If you dont get a rise in rates, if you dont have strong employment which keeps the fed on the path to a minimum two of rate hikes who said were not going to have that . Scott, employment numbers have to be strong. We know, okay, im not talking about three rate hikes this year. I know some are, but two is a reasonable number. I dont care about auto, im sorry monday morning, but ultimately, Everything Else is saying were in an economy thats moving in the right direction. And that leads us to rate hikes. Real question is whether the bond market is tell us something that the stock market is not. And help us answer that question. We go up to chicago and our rick san telely. A lot of folks scratching their heads if this continued to move lower in rates even as signs continue to appear that the economy is improving. Confidence both business and consumers off the charts. No, i agree on the confidence thing. Confidence is high. And i think that has a lot of positive associated with it, but gdp isnt one of them. Its going to be many quarters even if everything goes perfect before you see that. I look at it a little bit different. Lets got board quick, judge. I continue to see the most important level. There was two levels. 227 where we settled the last day on the 1231 of 15. It took us basically the entire year just about to overtake it. And whats interesting is, we overtook on 1117 we started our consolidation. But this move from november 4th to november 14th, and that was a friday, so only six trading days, we covered 50 basis points. So theres two things. Growth just is slow to change. And were still at a lofty level reflecting growth. Were only down ten basis points on the year, but i do think if you start to trend below that 227, some call it 225, whos going to ever argue with jeff . Look at his record. But if we do, then id say youd go to consolidation. You tend to go back and fill in the thin areas. Those six trading days could be defined by 187 and two in a quarter. Im not that negative yet, but youre all right. The cumulative effects if you should get in that range will draw down stocks which i think are higher, not because of trump, because of hillary. Just my opinion. Yeah. Rick, thank you. To ricks point, history is not on the bulls side. If rates continue to drop the way they have. Our dom chu here with that story. Scott, to further that conversation you guys just had about whether financials do well, take a look at this because we asked our data partners over at kensho to crunch the numbers, over the last decade, again, since back in 2007, we asked what happens when rates drop . By 30 basis points, kind of like what were seeing now, 30 basis points in the span of one month. Its happened about 35 times in that span. The reaction of the stock markets pretty marked. The s p 500 broadly down almost 3 . Its only been a positive trade 23 of the time. So yes, three quarters at a time, its a negative trade over the past ten years. Financials, taking the worst of the heat here down by about 6 on average, materials and industrials also in that mix as well. So some of the more cyclical sectors, and you can see here, the trade Positive Side of things, they dont happen very often. So as we talk about whps when rates drop, financials part of a focus here. Materials and industrials also scott sectors to watch. Thanks. Prefed. Goes down 30 basis points. Yeah. What doms telling us, if it continues to go down and gets close to two, youve got a chance of a 3 pullback in the s p 500 as a result of that. Yeah. I dont think thats going to happen. I dont think dom thinks its going to happen or anybody here on the desk really thinks thats going to happen, but, just as jeff said, jeff of course, said, jeffrey, sorry, jeff, jeffrey. Get to the point. What weve got here, what weve got here, judge, is a situation where you cannot dismiss the anchor that europe is to these rates. You cannot do that. We said it time and time again here on the desk. People decried it. That means they were dead wrong. Whos right . Jeff is right. Im right. Were going to go back down to around this level and if Courtney Gibson is right and we see two rate hikes this year, we could still be right where we are. Thats not a negative. And take a look at the s p, were up 5 year to date, right . Xlk, the tech index up 10 . So the fact that the banks are up 2 year to date as measured by the xl because tech doesnt care what the feds going to do tomorrow. Right. And i dont care. What trumps going to do tomorrow. And i dont care. I care what im benchmarked to the s p 500, scott, with the money we manage. And so, i care about the s p. Are we beating it . Yes, so thats the part that i care about. Do i care about one little sector, the Banking Sector and do i think that the rates are going back down to two or under two . No, i dont. Just saying, its not just a little sector. Its the train that everybody is on. Its not here is it, look at what dragged us here. 5 on the year. Theyve given us 2 . Thats where the juice is, judge. And you want to stay with whats working then. Yes. The point that docs making. And to courtneys point. I mentioned this last week, youre seeing a significant a. Supply come on the market on the debt side of financial juices. And this isnt about the fundamentals of financial institutions. This is about capital flows. This is about europe. This is about a ten year in germany thats 31 basis points. Thats why the u. S. Tenure is trading where it is. And if it trades 225, 235, that might be good enough for the fundamentals and the Financial Sector to come through the s p has continued to rally in an environment where ten year yields have been low. They can continue to do so. So i dont think its a harbinger of something very ominous unless you see some geopolitical shock that takes rates well below where it was in november. And thats what this year has been all about. Its been rotation. Right . I mean weve talked about this. In january, it was the sickly kl trade, february, defensive trade, march, it was more of the tech trade. So i think, you know, even though rates come down, it doesnt necessarily mean that we have this massive collapse in the market if you can continue to have rotation and i think earnings are going to support that going forward. We have one week to go and were going to be focussing on fundamentals. Arent those trades that you just mentioned though so tied to how people view the progression of the trump agenda . Okay. Yeah. Trillion dollar infrastructure, trillion dollar infrastructure, all these stocks are going up. Im not sure, now start things, maybe everythings going to be pushed off more and those trades you thought would work dont work. You said from the beginning of the year, even right after the election, judge, we said, youre not going to get tax reform until the late second half of 2017. Might even be into 2018, but i mean you know that ive said this time and time again here, i dont know that anybody sells on the other side of that. I think theyre on the same side. So if you are looking at that, theres not a single day this year that technology hasnt been ahead of any of those other sectors of the s p 500. Tech from day one all the way to now, up 10 , you look at the chart overlay one versus the other, tech is just outperforming, outperforming, and thats just fine. That drives us higher. Even if banks flutter around right now as they have. Theyre up 2 year to date, thats just fine. The point here though is, i dont hear a good part of this desk ready to give up on the banks i wouldnt give up on trade. I dont see the rates going down. More in the banks. Rates stay here the banks arent going to do anything bull, bull. If we the banks are here because some out there fear what they think might happen even though they were dead wrong when the rates were at 260, they were dead wrong thinking theyre going to three, now, theyre scared when theyre at 235, that sounds like buying high and selling low. Ill tell you, my desk, my treasury desk, i called them right before we came on today. They said that the market right now thinks the street is short. And whenever you see that, you start to see those rates begin to go down. This has nothing to do, and this is the bond desk, we have 50 bond guys sit right here in new york city, they are not even at the same point that were talking about today with oh my god is the stock market about to collapse. Its theres some other things going on behind the scenes that are causing these rates to go where they are. Look at the movement in the market. Lets say in the first and eric, one of the reporters helped put this together. In the first 50 days of trump, since the election, since election day, until january 20th, financials up 16 in the second 50. Now theyre only up three cents. Industrials up nine, only up two cents. Tech was up five, its up eight in the second 50 days of trump. Only up two. People think its going to be a negative sector at least for the beginning. The last 50, its up six. And the whole point of rotation. This is where youre seeing the market rotates. As data points come in, and people get more cautious, people take some profits, pick some money off the tanl and put it into laggards. Aye been doing that with energy. The best values in the market where no one wants to go that the point. And its not trump or not trump. Its like valuation and fundamentals. Repatriation is real, big pharma has the second most a. Overseas cash that it can return, thats why health care is performing well. Technology was vilified in november as the Trump Administration came in, everyone thought, oh technologys going to have a huge problem. We are going to have protectionism. That doesnt appear to be evident. What shines through is again 400 million of cash on their Balance Sheets and going back to financials for one second, i got into financials the latest of anyone on this desk. I got into financials in november. Everyone else has been in financials. I dont think any of these four people here were buying financials because they were making a call on where rates were going. And i think youre making a mistake i think that was part of the equation without question. Its a very, very small part. The facts and the fundamentals. Ill keep hitting on that because we go back to last quarter, wait until we hear from jamie diamond on april 13th, well have more facts after a record quarter this past quarter when nobody thought well the banks, theyre not able to do this, that, lone growth and jamie diamond and the rest of the banks for the most part came through. By the way on the city downgrade of bank of america today, we were talking about this beforehand. The analyst unfortunately has not been very accurate going into this, scott. And thats what we always say is follow the analysts that give you the answers. And the ones who give you the right answers, those are the ones you follow. Katie hew bettery for instance and apple, mark mahany and amazon, pick your stock and your analyst. The rest of them, let them talk. Bank of america was the cheapest bank stock as of the day of the election and traded at a very wide discount to jpmorgan. Yep. Since the election, bank has outperformed and has substantially closed the gap with jpmorgan. And thats the key thing. Theyve closed the gap. Doesnt mean theyve caught all the way up, right . They have closed the gap because of that outperformance of the stock itself. Thats a company that when you look at them with the meryl arm and Everything Else, bank of americas got a lot of different levers that they can pull to make a lot of money. Particularly on costs. I think thats a really big point to make on bank of america. They had a very bloetd infrastructure within the company and they are slowly taking that down piecemeal and that could be a nice catalyst if you have margins actually going higher, little bit better revenue, youre going to get positive operating. No doubt it has rallied a lot, but i dont think you get off here for a point or two. The point were making is if rates are not going to cooperate, you better get the earnings. Yep. 100 . And all in the banks are talking about that. And you made a really good point about the consolidation, if you look at whats happening with all of these large banks, theyre making more money with what . Less people. Theyre leveraging what . Technology to get to the same end and their returns are looking phenomenal. So rates aside, theyre making fundamental Business Decisions that are changing how theyre performing in the marketplace. Rates, rates will be icing on the cake, scott, i wish had a cup cake, id be the icing on the cake. All right. Were going to continue this conversation tomorrow with one of the brightest minds in the investing industry. Leon is the founder of omega advisors. Hes going to join us to discuss the markets, what he sees in the months ahead. Tomorrow noon eastern right here on the Halftime Report on cnbc. Heres what else coming up on the half. After a stunning run, the wall street analysts are starting to turn on them. Are they right . Is it time to cash out . Or are they wrong . And do you need to stay in the trade and buy more . Plus, a big day, a big cause across the board. Amazon sales force, alphabet, exxonmobile, well hit them all in the blitz. When the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders continues in two minutes. Various shouting heigh ho its off to work we go woman on the gulf coast, new exxonmobil projects are expected to create over 45,000 jobs. And each job created by the Energy Industry supports two others in the community. Altogether, the industry supports over 9 million jobs nationwide. These are jobs that natural gas is helping make happen, all while reducing americas emissions. Energy lives here. All while reducing americas emissions. Im ricardo, a sales and Service Consultant here at the xfinity store in bellevue, washington. Here at the store, we offer internet, tv, phone, customer service, home security. Every situation is a little different. It could be about billing, simple questions like changing the phone number. Sometimes, they want to upgrade, downgrade, but at the end of the day, you want to take care of the customer. One of the great things about comcast, theres always room to move up. Of course, it depends on you, how hard you work. Welcome back to the Halftime Report, shares under pressure today, downgrading that stock to underweight. They say demand for the companys graphic card has gone from bad to worse. Its our call of the day on what has pete ben a home run stock. Home run stock. You know, its been sort of trapped now for a little while, scott, seems like the 95 to call it 110. Big range, but when you look within the note itself, i think the part about it is very interesting, talk about margin compression, they talk about the competition out there with the graphics and all. I think the most interesting part of this note was when they moved on to some of the other stocks, scott, and they were talking about sky works and serious logic and how bullish they are on those. Sky works has been working and that was the name we all saw back in january before apple. It was sky works that crushed their earnings numbers. Revenue was up 9 . They did everything they needed to do, and that fed you all the info you needed into apple. Youre not going to fall somebody for downgrading after the ridiculous run yeah whereby you do. If you think theres room to run. You do . Absolutely. Absolutely. We move name in the semimyspace when she launched late last year. We have 120 price target on this name right now. And she is incredibly confident. We were with the cfo just a couple of weeks ago on a Semiconductor Bus tour. There are trends coming out long term, it was, it was exhilarating, scott. See, bust to it. She got me excited about it, right . Can you tell. I know, right. Tickets for that . You know, we might sell you a ticket. Because you cant trade with us, you have to buy a ticket. How does she feel about what they were talking about today though. In terms of the margin compression. And done well or not done well. I should say everyone should do their homework before they sell this name right now and where it is. The name has a lot more to run again longterm, 12 month price target of about 120. I think you could still get there. Betsy thinks it can still get there. Check out our note, theres about 15 or 16 other folks who have buy ratings and theres a reason. Sky work, you mention the other part of this note. They upgrade and goes to 75 both overweights whab do you think . I like both of them. And thaet both talk about the iphone eight orders being more than they raised the estimates on that one. Its a great way to play the apple trade. I like both. Its more investable. And its more now of a trading stock. You have to athrew volatile toy smooth out a little bit. And i think broad come is interesting because its trading at a big discount to the group, very diversified. They made a acquisition, synergies there, higher, thats a good thing. And im not playing for apple. I like the diversification story here on the valuation makes sense. Weve jumped on lately, judge, and that one for the last smont completely outperformed. Im not putting putting betsy down over at court firm, but i am saying that amd for the past month up at 10 or 11 versus three. I think a lot of people switched. They switched horses. Theyre on to this one now. And it continues to outperform theyre selling puts to the downside, theyre buying calls to the upside. I think it parades through 16 in the not too distant future. It doesnt have to be either or. One name if one sector. There are good names and to play a lot of as you talk about tech, playing on apple, and if you do that, youre probably looking good right now. And add to that conversation as well, both doing incredibly well. We dont talk about those names enough. Ahead, retail shocker. One of the most famous Clothing Companies in the country shutting down its flagship new york city store. Well tell you why coming up. Plus big moves in the blitz today. Staples, amazon, exxon and more. Were going to hit them all, this is the Halftime Report on cnbc. Wh a fire destroyed everything in our living room. We replaced it all without touching our savgs. Yeah, our insurance wont do that. No. You can leave worry behind when liberty stands with you™. Libertmutual insurance when liberty stands with you™. [he has a new business teaching lessons. Rodney wanted to know how his business was doing. So he got quickbooks. It organizes all his accounts, so he can see his bottom line. Ahhh. Thats a profit. Know where you stand instantly. Visit quickbooksdotcom. Ahhh. Thats a profit. Were back. Theres a look at jpmorgan shares up onehalf of 1 . Jamie diamond out with his letter today. Wilbur got his hands on it. Yes indeed, weve already outlined the points on deregulation and the overall turn certainly something that was upbeat. Lets start through some of the more down beat comments certainly on dissatisfaction. He says, its understandable why so many angry at the leaders of americas institutions including businesses, schools, and governments, they are right to expect us to do a better job collectively. One of the areas of desatisfaction is antisentiment which he says is growing in parts of the world today. Ahead of president trumps meeting with president xi this week, lets see what he said on china. Jamie diamond says the United States has some serious trade issues with china which have grown over the years. However theres no compelling reason that china and america have to clash im hopeful they can be resolved in a way that is fair and constructive. Or nafta, similar tone, he says while there are some clear identifiable problems, identifiable problems with nafta, i believe they will be worked out in a way that is fair and beneficial for both sides. He keeps some of his strongest words for the eu. He lists their problems. Immigration, bureaucracy, the ongoing loss of sovereignty, and labor inflexibility. He addressed this as saying he hoped brexit would lead to the eu to address those problems and work on them, but he does fear the opposite is happening. He says the unraveling of the eu and the Monetary Union could have devastating economic and political affects. He says though, while were not predicting this will happen, the probabilities have certainly gone up. So some pretty strong words about the situation in europe. I should say, as i said at the top, the overall turn of this certainly upbeat. Many economists believe were not permanently relegated to slow growth and lower productivi productivity, but i strongly disagree. He lists that that can be improved boosting labor participation, better education, reforming Corporate Tax which he says will lead to more jobs and more investment and deregulation. And the very start of this letter, scott, he says the share price is a measure of the progress that has been made and the expectation of a more businessfriendly environment to come. Scott. Yep. Willford frost with the latest on that letter. And if i recall, you bought the stock the day jamie diamond bought the stock more than a year ago. Absolutely. Youve been holding on. In and holding on and holding on. Its been an amazing run. And i think getting in where jamie got in and following the vision of that ceo and where hes implemented things. Obviously like i said, i think rates, deregulation, those types was things are icing on the cake. If you will, he is running a sound business and has a vision for how he wants that company to run and is doing a phenomenal job executing. Lets do the blitz now. Staples up 10 today joe on the reports of buyout talks. Youre going to hear plenty of the reports they had the failed takeover attempt they did. Last year, the critical component of this is the ability to grow e commerce. They have a target of 80 by 2020. Somewhere around the upper 50s right now. Stock is trading slightly under 10. If you were lucky now have catch the little bounce this morning, take your profits and run. All right. Pete. Bank of america loves sales force, they put it to the u. S. One list. Understandably so, and i think the discipline that he showed, he wanted to make acquisitions, he did not. He made a the love acquisitions last year. Some of them very large, but he did not take off the big bites that people expected. Want partnerships theyre doing are just as good and going forward, i think for instance, the partnership for ai that theyve got with ibm, thats beneficial. This is a stock that i think is going higher. Hes a great ceo. Heavy competition, sales force is a good call. Steph, your amazon all time high today, bmo calls it a top pick. Raise the price target to 1200 from 900. Yeah, and its something we dont talk about. The ad momentum is the reason why they actually like this now even more. That theres upside here and that theyre probably taking share to Something Like alphabet. I own alphabet as well, i like amazon, i think its in the sweet spot as cloud as well as retail. I feel like some of the Retail Industry is really uninvestable at this point and theyre right in the sbeet spot. Im staying with it. As for alphabet, we talked about, they downgraded alphabet. Yeah, well theyve had a lot of problems with some of these ads, for instance, on youtube and so forth. And people are addressing that. And put out some letters about how people can avoid that sort of thing. I dont disagree with making it number one been but its a number two. Exxon maybe a partnership and also working with that according to some reports out there. I like the growth. We talked about fundamentals, i look forward to the end of the quarter. There are two things you need out of exxon, really three, i want to keep that dividend continuing to go as they have for those 34 years been i want to see growth and profits and sales, and i like oil above 50. If it can stay there, exxon is where you want to be. They have a great sound business for the longterm, thats a name you want to hold. Okay. We have the latest headlines today. Hi sue. I do. Heres whats happening everyone at this hour. Syrian opposition activists say a suspected chemical attack in syrias province killed at least 100 people, including children. More than 400 were injured. Opposition activists described the attack as among the worst in that countrys six year civil war. The white house has condemned the attack and says it is alarmed by the reports. Russian investigators say suicide bomber from kerg stan was behind the blast that killed 14 people on monday. 49 others were injured. St. Petersburg subway stations shut down after a bomb threat today, they have since reopened. Dallas cowboys quarterback tony romo will retire according to multiple reports. He will take a job in the broadcasting booth instead of continuing his chase for a super bowl win. The cowboys are expected to release romo later today. And North Carolina won its sixth mens basketball ncaa championship last night. Beating gonzaga 7165. The ncaa saying today, it will begin consider North Carolina to host championship games in the wake of the state lawmakers rolling back that states controversial bathroom bill last week. That is the news update this hour. Youre up to date, now to michelle with whats coming up on power lunch, hi michelle. Kwhl which starts in 26 minutes, sue. Coming up at the top of the hour. President trump meeting with ceos about cutting regulation, growing jobs, so talking is the easy part. When it comes to action. Stormy weather in shortville. Elon musk, you saw him poking fun of short sellers. And in teslas rally, closer look at heavy short interests, but have surged this year. And a rare close up look at amazons vision of physical retail. Yes, store fronts, plus one high flying retail star that appears to be immune to amazon. All of that when power lunch starts at the top of the hour. Halftime, dont move, returns right after this break. Is it because so many go after it the same way . Chasing after short term returns. Instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the Investment Managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with riskmanagement rigor, to seek out global opportunities. We manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the worlds leading investors. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential amazon trading at all time high levels dating back to the ipo in may of 1997. The stock is a member of the cnbc iq 100 index which is up 26 over the past year. For more on the index and stocks in it, go to cnbc. Com iq 100. All right, were back with the Halftime Report, ralph lauren cutting jobs, shutting down its flagship fifth avenue store in new york city. Courtney reagan is there live for us on this surprising decision. Reporter hi, good afternoon, scott. Somewhat surprising. So this Polo Ralph Lauren store here on fifth avenue is going to be closing on april 15th. Its been here on the bottom two floors of the cocacola building for the last three years. Now ralph lauren says that this is actually part of that 50 store closing plan that it announces last june. Part of that way forward strategy, although ralph lauren says that ending this lease plus the addition of a commerce mr. Chairman will save 140 million a year. That was above 220 million a year. The company says it plans to invest at least part of those savings in its growth. And shares are down 5 today. So investors may not be cheering this move, theyve been down about 18 since last june when the way forward plan was announced. And in the most recent quarter, comps had fallen 5 . Now as of the most recent quarter ralph lauren still operates 485 stores and that does include the outlets and the club monaco stores. There are ten global flagships and still seven stores left here in new york city once this closes. But this location did certainly make a splash when the lease was signed in 2013 at the time it was the most expensive retail lease. 16 years valued at a total of 400 million and rental income. Weve reached out to the leasing agent to see what the plans are going forward, and well let you know when we hear more about that, scott. Courtney, thanks so much. Courtney reagan, steph, maybe the stock is down on this, simply because its a representation the market thinks of just how bad retail is. Well retail is bad, but ralph lauren has a the love problems. Their ceo that was hired only a couple years ago was ousted. You dont really have leadership or at least the leadership you thought you were going to have. And so, i dont think today is really that surprising, its part of that store Closure Program they were talking about. Any time you close this iconic location, what do you think is a flagship right there on fifth avenue. Oh no, its not good news. It suggests things are not good or not getting any better. And i dont think anybody expected that, but then you have this announcement. I think retail overall is very hard. Im very tempted to buy as a contarian because these things have all come down so hard, but for now, im just sticking with amazon, sticking with nike, mgm, different parts of consumer which i think will continue to do pretty well. I think retail in the last five days is clearly coming back strongly. The way that i have been playing the Consumer Discretionary space is win, but i think you have to look at hold on, retail is coming back strongly . In the last five days is coming back very strongly. Nordstrom up 9 , darden coming back up 10 , macys and kohls both up 5 . It is rebound, youre seeing stability there. The Consumer Discretionary space itself is outperforming the s p in the last five days. You have to pay heed to it, you have to ask yourself if in february when we saw these tax rebate checks being held back, if that impacted retail, i believe that it did, i also think if you have to look globally and see whats going on with fedex, i think fedex takes above 200. Fedex is performing incredibly well. Youre seeing investments in the ground space. And then you and i spoke before the show about ups. Ups, 109 year history final on saturday because e commerce is so strong theyre going to be making ground deliveries on saturdays, i think its very, very constructive and it presents to you what were seeing in amazon and what were seeing this transformation overall about e commerce and the impact its having. Quick one . And it goes the same way with the big box retailers that are also coming in like a best buy where its saying yes, amazon, which i love by the way, were going to match their prices. Were going to match targets prices, walmarts prices, come into our store, buy from us and well do well. Theyre going to be a huge, huge beneficiary after hh greg. Thats the other issue, the border adjustment tax. Yep. That is maybe no border adjustment tax. Best buy performed well. John and i have talked about best buy for the better par of a yoo per very strong, up 5 . Ting trades above 50. Clearly the consumers going into that store and spending. Lets go to kaylee toush with news alerts on tax proposals, kayla. Were just getting headlines out of the washington post. They have two sources saying that there are two potential ideas being floated within the administration for how to reform the american tax code. Those include, according to to the washington post, a will have added tax which you often see internationally when you travel. Its basically a National Sales tax as well as a carbon tax that would target the emissions of carbon dioxide. The administration as well as folks on capitol hill are trying to explore exactly what tax reform would look like now that there seems to be no Health Care Deal in sight before Congress Goes on recess on thursday of this week. The window for a potential deal, although the president is trying to make one is closing very quickly. Im told that there are multiple courses of action that are being explored. Im hearing that from high level sources on the hill. But in terms of where the administration would get revenue to make up for some of those line items that would have been extracted through the obama carrey peel, scott, it appears that they are floating a few trial balloons to see exactly how the market and how businesses would respond. Thanks so much. The brothers are tracking unusual activity in the options market. Theyre going to go to the telestraiter, plays coming up. And here are the most affluently traded stocks as we speak. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare . 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My brothers doing unusual something. Fix the tell straiter. Wouldnt believe all the little thing it takes to make this particular segment work. Fantastic, yeah. With you, doc, i dont know. You know, scott. Maybe i would. Go ahead, doc. Heres the year to date, colgate, 73 and 65 cents. Theyre buying upside calls way out in august, judge. So you take a look at this, thats about what a 15 move by august . Love hue aggressive they were to buy those you can see on a daily basis, almost nothing trades in there. All the sudden, today, 5,000 like, bang, so we tried to get in, i tried to get in, pete made it, probably screwed it up for me. But im going to be getting into this or some way to be long colgate from now until august i really like this buy. You know i would have given you the benefit of the doubt had you not done the jeff jeffrey thing. Jeff, jeffrey disqualified yourself there. Youre right. Thank you, judge. Pete, what do you got . Facebook, scott. Actually, i got something to tell you that youre going to be surprised by. Apple i took off calls today, they performed pretty well for me, i wanted to get out of those. Im going to roll up, but today its facebook. So a little rotation in my portfolio. Huge call buying, i looked out there, 4,000 right out of the gate. They came for the 146 calls. Stocks alltime high is very close, but its well above at 146 if we get there. Huge buyer there with the april 28s, theyre paying about a dollar for these. They expire on the 28th, excuse me, you have the entire month. I have about three weeks, im going to hold it unless this thing moves faster. Then im going to take these off. Come on back over this way. Lets talk about another stock. The stock that just killed it, facebook. Oh, facebook. You know i love facebook, scott. Its a name that i love and you see how its just attacking snap right now. I mean, attacking every which way you turn. Facebook is a name that if you dont own it, youre kicking yourself right now. If you dont own it or havent owned it at some point in time and taken profits off the table maybe, i think for the longterm this is a name you put in your portfolio and you just watch them work. All right. Gold prices are hitting a oneweek high. How the futures are trading it and playing it next. First the s p sector check. Where is it . Its coming. Promise. It is. There it is. See . Somebody else was having problems. Financials a drag. Thats what weve been talking about. Thats how we led our program. Halftime back in two minutes. Yes . Please repeat the objective. Thrivent mutual funds. Managed by humans, not robots. Before investing, carefully read and consider fund objectives, risks, charges and expenses in the prospectus at thriventfunds. Com. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Im domimic chu. Rallying, perhaps a bit of a trade there. We are a few bucks shy of the 2017 highs. Gold closing in on its 200day average price, but you say its already broken a critical technical level. Break down the trade for us. It has but its failed. Well get back to that in a seco second. When you have donald trump and you have wilbur ross some what saber rattling that could be good for gold and implied in that is the dollar is trading too strong. Also political turbulence. Spoiler alert, we always do now. The fundamental case is good for gold. When it went above 12. 58 it seemed it had broken key Technical Levels and broken higher. Since then its back below it. If i see a stronger close today, thats where im going to really like it. I already have some. Jimmy, gold already up 9 so far year to date. Is there more upside ahead . I think there is more upside, dom. We will see. You look at the chart on a weekly perspective. Its similar to the carrickries it particul characteristic of that profile. Jimmy is right f. We see a close above 1,260 it can grab the 1,300 level. The feds balance sheet, its huge at 4. 5 billion. That is the underlying bid in gold as the fed has no plan to decrease that balance sheet, dom. Jim, jeff, thank you for the takes on gold. Online were joined by greg parsons. Hes going to tell us why he sees the bond market flashing a warning sign for the stock market at the top of the hour. Futuresnow. Cnbc. Well do a quick break and then final trades. Hey gary, what are you doing . Oh hey john, im connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. Thats a great idea, but why dont you just go to thinkorswims chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders . I know. Your brain told my brain before you told my face. Mmm, blueberry . Tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. His on off splits are the best here. Yeah, but his offensive win shares didnt even break 4. Come on, check out that stopandpop what do you think . My tradeoff analytics indicate no one creates more space on offense. This allows him to nail a jumper from a densely populated urban area. What youre trying to say is. From way downtown . I am still learning. I can see that. E trades powerful trading tools, give you access to indepth analysis, and a team of experienced traders ready to help if you need it. Its like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. Its your trade. E trade various shouting heigh ho its off to work we go woman on the gulf coast, new exxonmobil projects are expected to create over 45,000 jobs. And each job created by the Energy Industry supports two others in the community. Altogether, the industry supports over 9 million jobs nationwide. These are jobs that natural gas is helping make happen, all while reducing americas emissions. Energy lives here. Another reminder who is joining us tomorrow. Lee cooperman the founder of omega advisers will join us to talk markets, where he sees opportunity at noon eastern tomorrow only on cnbc. Lets do final trades. Caterpillar, best performer in the dow today. Stocks done well until this probe came to light. Upgraded today to buy or Goldman Sachs they reiterate their buy. They add to the conviction buy list. What do we think . Its lagged year to date after a spectacular last year. I get the call because hes trying to have a catchup trade. I think the quarter will be find. What we heard a couple weeks ago revenues will actually beat the price mix is not going to be there. It will lag so you will not get the operating average yet but you have operating leverage opportunity in the next couple of quarters. I like it. I own it. I know. And you were sort of undeterred by undeterred. The men and women going into the building with blue coats on. Its an issue from their past and it probably will end up as a onetime event. Not immaterial but a onetime event. You move on. The cycle is what i own it for. Joe, why dont you start us off . Symantec. A company that is a potential m a target, specializes in security, thats reinvented itself, cleaned up the balance sheet, has done nice acquisitions. I like this name. I like Federal Express as joe was talking about. You do . I do. Its a new position for me in the last couple of weeks post earnings. The earnings were mixed, guidance was good. They have margin upside. The underlying demand is still very strong. I like the story. Why over u. P. S. . I think theyve done a heavy investing already as opposed to u. P. S. Which has to heavy invest further to meet the demand. And so you get better positive operating leverage. Doc . Srus gets two upgrades today. Good option activity. Id buy it with options. Unp, the rails, we had csx k activity. They bought 50,000 upside calls out in 19. They did the january of 18 so a lot of activity out there. Transports are one of the areas that did well and came back to earth. And the calls theyre buying, scott, are way above where the stock is. Im taking a really hard look at etsy. A new cfo was brought in today, rachel glass er. A 16 target. Taking a look at it. Have a nice die on the Semiconductor Bus. Power lunch starts now. Big news being reported out of the white house, the past half hour or so could have an impact on your money and your taxes. The full details on all of that straight ahead. Plus, as take yoen talks swirl around panera bread we are playing the match game. The two names that might be a good fit for the sandwich maker. Think coffee and doughnuts but not together. Later on another major disaster du jour in it retail. One household name seeing selling in spades. Thats a hint. Power lunch