Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20161107

Welcome to squawk alley this morning on an important day. Got our top story, obviously, less than a day to go until the polls open. The markets are in rally mode. Were looking at almost a 300point increase on the dow after fbi director james comey said the agency will not reopen its investigation into Hillary Clinton and her private email server. Watching the Market Reaction here at the nysc, john, lets start with you. We have less than a day left before this election is wrapped up. A lot of americans going to breathe a sigh of relief over that. Take a look at the battleground map by nbc news, shows Hillary Clinton has enough states either safely or leaning her way to get over the 270 electoral votes, so Donald Trumps got to figure out how to tip those undecided and pull some back from Hillary Clinton. Thats the logic of his closing blitz. Lets take a look at his travel schedule today. While this is Hillary Clintons, first of all, shes going to be in north carolina, thats a state mitt romney carried four years ago that shes trying to pull out of trumps column, make his hill even steeper to climb. Youve got pennsylvania, thats core to him. Donald trump needs that, and michigan, as well, which is a state Donald Trumps trying to take away. Its been leaning to Hillary Clinton. So donald trump is going to more states because hes got more work to do. Hes going to be in michigan, hes also going to be in pennsylvania, hell be in north carolina, but adding two others he needs very badly, one is florida with 29 electoral votes and the second is the state of New Hampshire. He got a bad poll out of New Hampshire last night showing him down by 11 percentage points. Thats a much wider margin than weve seen lately, but its an indication of the work Donald Trumps got to do to try to overcome Hillary Clintons advantage. Guys . John, thank you for that. Lets get back to the markets, as well, and the rally, which looks now to be the best day since march 1st. Bob standing by. Bob . We are strengthening throughout the morning, still 91 advancing to declining stocks. Look at the s p, remember we dropped 3. 1 in the nineday slide weve had. We regained more than half of those losses just this morning here. In terms of sector, its so broad not only the Market Leaders are ahead, the market laggers are doing well, too. The Market Leaders, bank and tech, they are leading, but pharmaceutical stocks, the third group there, leading. Theyve been terrible performers, retail has been terrible, it, too, is a Market Leader today. Telecom started strong, then faded. That makes sense because the tenyear is trading to the upside. Big move in gold stocks, gold was over 1300, its down today. Not surprising big decline in the gold stocks, as well. Viks, remember we strike over 20 with the election being more competitive than people thought, now down at 17. Thats a big drop today, down about four points overall. Remember what the market has been like recently, strength in bank stocks, strength in transports, semiconductors, as well, but the rest of the market, frankly, hasnt been performing well. The laggers outnumber the gainers so far, so pharmaceuticals have been terrible performers, retail have been terrible, Consumer Staples and any Interest Rate sensitive groups like telecom and utilities have lagged. Today, though, they are all up. Carl, back to you. Ill take it, thanks, bob. Now lets talk impact on sectors, as well as the markets in general. Lets bring in chief investment strategist and anthony chan, chief economist at chase. Guys, thanks for being with us. Anthony, i want to start with you. If we look at sectors and sort of how they perform in the first year of a democrat versus a republican, democrats seem to have some pretty good numbers, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary, but as i look back at how often a democrat has followed another democrat after eight years, that hasnt happened since roosevelt truman, so what do the numbers really mean . These sectors are, in fact, doing well during a Democratic Administration, but also tells you this is an unusual election, because the Financial Sector actually does very well under a Democratic Administration, but yet we know that if we have a sweep of both the senate and the house, which is unlikely to happen, the Financial Sector is not likely to do well, but when you look at the republican, you look at some of their sectors, the Energy Sector does very well in a republican administration, real estate sector does very well, but when you look at the sectors that dont do so well under a Democratic Administration, something interesting, four out of the five worst performing sectors under a Democratic Administration still have double digit gains. Then when you look at the republican administration, the sectors that dont do very well mostly have negative rates of return, so i say that on a sector by sector basis, the democrats seem to have a slight edge here. James, given that this is so unusual, you know, how likely is it that whether Hillary Clinton wins or donald trump wins were more likely to have more of a republican type first year just based on the fact that historically these numbers are only going back to 1989, the ones weve been quoting. We havent had, again, a democrat follow another democrat after eight years since early in the last century. I think, john, the real key here is whether there is tried power or not. Not who takes the white house, but whether theres a clear sweep or not, and if there isnt, then i think a lot of those political numbers as far as the impact on the market are not going to be near as strong, and, in fact, i think you make a mistake by trying to focus in on those. I think largely if theres split power, adam smith, is going to manage, make most of the decisions going forward, and i think thats what people should stay focused on, and right now, i think theres a growing evidence that theres not only a pickup in earnings momentum and growth momentum in the United States, but theres evidence of growing and broadening economic momentum picking up around the globe, and i would say that that should focus investors in on the more economically sensitive cyclical areas, maybe even higher beta areas that have trailed over the last couple years when everyone went to the defensive sort of Interest Rate plays. I would be more focused there than i would on who takes the white house. But jim, the market can refocus on those things once the election is behind us, and it needs to be a certain outcome. What is the Market Pricing in for a certainty vote tomorrow night . Is it a difference of 25 electoral votes . At what point do you think the market will say this is clear there is a winner and this will not follow us through december . Well, i think that, you know, if we get in a situation where its the disputed election, thats really bad and that will certainly drag on, create a lot of uncertainty, raise the vix, but if we have a clear winner tomorrow night, whoever takes it, i think the market might have a kneejerk reactikction initially if trump wins it will sell off a bit, but within a few weeks the market will get beyond that, refocus on some of the fundamental aspects that have been Getting Better as weve been worried about this election, and i think were going to head northward, break out to the upside here over the next year. Guys, this morning david tepper joined the guys on squawk box this morning talking about the election and markets ability to discount either clinton or trump policies. Take a listen to this. This is a guy that has to remind himself on the podium to stay on message. In fact, he talks to himself, stay on message, donald, stay on message. Is he going to get in the oval office and say, dont press a button, donald, dont press that red button . Could be dangerous. Talks to himself to stay on message. It makes people nervous, larry, and thats economics. Jim, does that make sense to you, this idea, this notion that trump delivers a broader spectrum of outcomes that the market is afraid of . I think so. I think thats been pretty clear leading up to this, carl, that anything that leans trumpward we get Downside Risks in the markets, but the question is, does it persist or is it just immediately leading up to and immediately after the election, and i kind of lean that way. I think we move on whoever wins the white house, and investors should focus on, you know, weve escalated fears, weve brought down prices, weve refreshed evaluations a bit. Earnings are coming up, growth is starting to restable. I like that combo package of fear with better fundamentals, and i think id focus on that more than who wins the white house. Anthony, does really the house and Senate Matter more than the presidency does at this point . I mean, the way the numbers are trending, it looks like the republicans are going to hold on to the house and the senates not looking bad for the republicans either, but theres a bit more perhaps impact on the budget, on allocation, depending on what happens in congress. Thats right, and i think that right now when you look at the breakdown of what the votes are suggesting is that the house and the senate will stay, and by the way, the Financial Markets actually want that, but i want to step away and not just look at sectors and say that in the first year of a president ial election cycle out of an eightyear cycle, its a good year for the market and here im not going back to 1989. I go back to 1929 and the market gives you a rate of return of 8. 9 . The only other years when you get bs better performances, third year of the cycle or sixth year of the cycle, so youre getting really good numbers in the first year of a president ial cycle. For those that say, but wait, every time you get a president ial election youre more than likely to have a recession, in the last six president ial elections youve only had a recession shortly after just twice, so in a world where earnings are actually bottoming out and likely to start spiking higher and you dont get that many recessions after president ial elections, i think were looking at a pretty good 2017 if after this election is over. Thats a nice note to end on, put a smile on our faces. Jim paulson from wells and anthony chan from chase, thanks for joining us. When we come back, less than a day to go, not just tepper weighing in on the campaign, clinton versus trump, elon musk using choice words. Then its become one of the biggest and most influential demographics in the last ten years, how millennials plan to rock the vote tomorrow. The cofounders of the skimm will discuss that. Dow is up 306, just five points away from recovering all 311 points its lost over seven straight down days. Why are you deleting these photos . Because my teeth are yellow. Why dont you use a whitening toothpaste . Im afraid its bad for my teeth. Try crest 3d white. Crest 3d White Diamond strong toothpaste and rinse. Gently whiten. And fortify weak spots. Use together for 2 times stronger enamel. Crest 3d white. About tempurpedic mattresses. Is that they contour to your body. It keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. Shop our biggest event of the year, including all tempurpedic mattresses. Save up to 600, now thru november 29th. Get your tempurpedic. The most highly recommended bed in america. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. The countdown to the election is on, obviously. Earlier this morning we talked to david tepper, but hes not the only one weighing in. On friday we spoke to teslas elon musk. Heres what he had to say. I think, you know, if hillarys economic policies and Environmental Policies particularly are the right ones, you know, but yeah, i also dont think this is the finest moment in our democracy in general. Roger, the cofounder of elevation partners, eric powe joins us at post nine, gentlemen, good to have you. Can you believe this whole chapter weve been through . What do you think we should start thinking about once its over, once this race is over . Well, you know, we just have to think about the future. We havent heard much about the future in these debates. Weve heard about an economic with high tariffs, bring manufacturing back, i assume they are meaning the old style manufacturing. We havent talked about technology, innovation, the drivers of the Economy Today have been completely lost. In addition to that, we heard a lot of anticapitalism or an anti Free Enterprise speech. I dont understand that, were not talking about this. Roger, it seems like we have plenty of discussions amongst ourselves about a. I. And automation and Autonomous Cars and Just Innovation in general. That gets so lost when it comes to public policy. Well, i think there are a bunch of factors driving that. Technologys played a huge role in this election cycle, because the internet has changed the nature of how campaigns are run so fundamentally. To me i think the thing investors really need to Pay Attention to is less about what candidates say than what this process implies for the future of, you know, in terms of uncertainty. I think investors have gotten used to the notion the United States has stable institutions and that we can count on the banking system, we can count on the government in general to stay predictable within certain ranges, and i think that this particular campaign has blown all of that up. I think there were issues already under obama because the republican obstruction of his legislative agenda, but i think now youre in open warfare, and i think thats really bad for the investment markets in general. I think it raises capital costs everywhere, and, again, i dont know how real the problem is, but i think people have to start to look at instability in our basic institutions in a way that literally we havent had to look at in my lifetime, and i find that really scary. Really, the notion that we might have four more years like the last eight of continuous obstruction and, you know, something awful mieg happen, we might not be able to respond because we cant get the two sides to talk to each other, that part really scares me, and i dont think it matter what is we do in Silicon Valley at this point, we have to fix those institutions or were in big trouble. Eric, the eyes of the world are on the u. S. This week to see how this election plays out. Deutsche bank says european equities could fall 5 to 10 if theres a trump victory. They are preparing for a brexitlike market slide if trump were to win, but its so hard to predict how a president elect would act, based on what weve seen in the campaign trail. How do you predict what theyll do . Well, thats right. I think the markets are saying with Hillary Clinton we know pretty much its going to be same old, same old, were accustomed to that, therefore, lets bid the market up, because theres not going to be major disrupti disruption. With trump, we dont know. We dont know. On the other hand, there are institutions that will prevent him from doing extreme things, we believe, particularly congress, but theres a lot of unknown if trump wins. Eric, Grover Norquist was on last hour arguing Hillary Clinton presidency of hers, she would regulate startups like uber to death, shed be terrible for the gig economy because she wants employeelevel protections for contractors. You deal with a Broad Spectrum of companies that rely on unique and nimble Business Models to survive. Are you concerned about that . Of course, i am. Im concerned about the attack in general against private enterprise, and capitalism. I mean, there was a survey done earlier this year that shows 51 of millennials are not capitalists. And so were raising a whole generation of people who believe capitalism is a bad thing, so together with that comes more regulation, more government interference, and then its not good for innovation. Innovation needs to be free, play within the rules, but the rules need to be well known and they need to stay there for the long term. Roger, when you say we need to start pricing in basic institutional instability, give me an example of how that will affect your investment model, your investment thesis, the things you choose to spend your money on. Well, carl, one of the things that really troubles me about the Current Situation is exactly the point your other guest just made, which is that too many people in the country do not trust our institutions, do not trust our basic economic system, and loss of trust, loss of empathy, are everywhere in the economy right now. It makes me just generally more cautious. I believe that Silicon Valley and our economy can still produce a lot of greatness, but what i worry about is that the benefits of that have been so unevenly distributed for so long, that a lot of ideas are going to get killed too early simply because we havent been smart and share the benefits broadly. I think, you know, the economys just gotten out of track. Weve done the same things for 40 years expecting the same kind of results, and, you know, you cant just keep downsizing, you cant keep sending jobs to china without eventually undermining the roots of the economy. I think we could have a really great run from here, but it would be super helpful if congress would sit there and go, look, we dont want to go crazy with either regulation, spending, whatever, but we are going to run the country properly, we are going to rebuild our infrastructure, we are going to recognize Climate Change is real and invest like crazy in new technology there. There are so many exciting things to invest in right now, like Climate Change technology, like various forms of information technology, medical technology, but people are not going to do that if they believe theres a risk of somebody getting in there and blowing up the system, either through congress or through the presidency, or just in the streets. So last word, eric, thats going to require a sales job marketing of sorts. Its going to require clear vision that we want an economy that is driven by innovation, driven by technology, protective of people who might fall out of this, but we have to have consensus. We have to have congress behind this, and we have got to show young people that the economy is here to grow. Thats the key part. Its a big, big job. Wish we had more time with you guys, but thank you for coming in. Good to see you both. Make sure you catch our special election coverage tomorrow night. It does begin at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time and its right here on cnbc. Still to come on squawk alley, there are more than 75 million millennials eligible to vote. Thats about onethird of the national electorate. Well speak to the cofounders of the skimm about this important demographic. S p 500 is up about 2 , green across the board. Squawk alley will be right back. Is it a force of nature . Or a sales event . The season of audi sales event is here. Audi will cover your first months lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. bing tonight, the odd couple remake on cbs is making a tribute to gary marshall. Marshall, of course, created the original odd couple and passed away in july. We spoke to him as a part of binge and spoke about whatever happened to the Television Theme song. Take a listen. The tv theme song . Yeah. I can sing love american style right now, its been 40 years. Its so competitive now. Theres so many channels, that they want to start with a big joke or something right away and theres no time for the theme. I love theme songs. The odd couple theme song neil hefty did is one, and my kids never could remember my birthday. Thats the opening of odd couple. I say on november 13th, i have three kids, oh, theres your birthday. That whole interview streaming on cnbc. Com, apple tv, and youtube. Might be a nice respite from political news this week. Indeed, different odd couple we have up in the polls this time. Starstudded tribute to gary marshall, as well. Coming up on squawk alley, why candidates are spending more and more time courting millennials. Cofounders of the skimm will join us. And echoing much of the sentiment here in the u. S. , major averages across the pond up about 1. 5 . Well count down to the european close in just a minute. tesla says it will end free use of its worldwide charging station network. Cars ordered after january 1st will get roughly 5,000 miles of credits before having to pay fees. The company says the fees will still cost less than filling up a comparable gasoline car. Video released by an opposition syrian media outlet shows u. S. Backed Syrian Democratic forces stationed in a village near northern syria. This is ahead an expected offensive to liberate raqqah, the de facto capital for isis. Russian Prime Minister medvedev will discuss trade, as well as economic and energy issues. The chinese delegation will meet with russian president putin on tuesday. And disney receiving permission to fly drones at its theme parks in california and florida. The faa issuing the waiver to allow the drones to be flown during the day and also at night. Disney is going to use them for entertainment purposes. Thats the news update this hour, back to squawk alley. Carl, back to you. Sue, thank you very much. Were also getting the european close as we speak. Hey, seema. Washington dominating the discussion, not just here in the u. S. , but across the pond in europe, european stocks joining the global rally on pace for their best session in three weeks, this as investors increasingly bet on a Hillary Clinton win following the most recent update from the fbi over the weekend. In terms of stock, on the move. Banks among the biggest winners. Cost cuts helping shbc, europes largest bank, better than expected pretax earnings and a sharp jump in core capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength. Deutsche bank also joining the rally. Its a good day for airlines, as well. An 8 increase in quarterly profit and issuing an upbeat passenger forecast, despite the brexit uncertainty. Other airlines like lufthansa moving higher in todays trade. The political impact on global assets, that continues to be a big conversation, aside from the japanese and mexican peso, keep a close eye on the russian ruble, which is expected to gain if donald trump wins the white house. His positive commentary around Vladimir Putin openly praising the russian leader, suggesting to some that if trump wins the presidency, u. S. Russia relations may be bolstered. Kayla . Thanks so much, seema. Back at headquarters. Only a day away from the election with Hillary Clinton and donald trump doing their best to reach millennials in this election. The voting bloc that makes up nearly a third of the electorate and joining us now are the founders and coceos of the skimm. Carly, danielle, thanks for joining us. Thank you so much for having us. Millennials are catching up closely to baby boomers as the largest share of the electorate, but the question is whether they will turn out to vote. Carly, what is it looking like . So they are turning out to vote. We talked to our audience and over 97 are planning on voting. I think theres a big misunderstanding about this audience that theres apathy within this audience and that they are not planning on turning out. I think theres a real distinction between whether or not they are going to actually show up and whether or not they are excited to show up. Weve seen registration in droves, including via the skimm. You have 110,000 people that have registered to vote just through the skimm. Howd you do that . We are so proud of it. As you said, millennials make up a huge part of this voting bloc, they are about a third of the voting population in the u. S. , so thats huge. As a company that makes it easier to be smarter, focusing primarily on female millennials and getting them information, we knew we had to make get out the vote and Voter Registration an essential part of our economy and we did that by teaming up with rock the vote. Weve had over 110,000 people registered to vote. That is amazing, and now were going a step forward, making sure they have buddies and a way to get to the polls, making sure they know what to bring, making sure they are prepared so that 97 that intends to vote actually does vote, which i think is really key. Also the 110,000, over 95,000 are women, which is, obviously, such a huge market for who the candidates are trying to reach. Carly, i wonder how representative your readership is of millennials at large. By definition they are people who really want to be informed, perhaps more than the population at large, so i wonder, did you see any kind of shift that you are able to track over time in enthusiasm given that so many millennials were excited about Bernie Sanders and seemed to sort of fall off the map after it was clear he wasnt going to be the democratic nominee . We definitely did see that shift. Nearly 60 of our audience is going to vote for Hillary Clinton. Thats not because 60 of our audience is a registered democrat or was supporting her from the beginning. A lot of Bernie Sanders supporters ended up crossing the line to support hillary, but a huge amount of republicans and independents are supporting hillary in this audience, so its been interesting to see how that shift has happened and goes back to the overall message, 40 of this audience is really upset about who they are voting for, and so again, i think its really important to note that they are in many ways begrudgingly voting for hillary, but they are voting for her. On the one hand youre hearing women say im empowered by hillary being the first female president , im voting for her, or as Susan Sarandon said over the weekend, i dont vote based on my gender. For us, millennials have reflected a trend people tend to be voting against another candidate and thats true with this bloc. There are a lot of reasons why millennials are turning out to vote for hillary, but when we look at it its to block another candidate. When we did a survey a few weeks ago we saw actually the same amount of female millennials that are going to vote for trump are looking at third party candidates, so we see a lot of frustration with who theyve got in front of them and what they are going to get out of these election results. Carly, you mentioned a lions share of your readers support Hillary Clinton, but not because they are registered democrats. You think about the one issue connecting all millennials, student debt, but socially and fiscally, what other issues do they care about and how do the party lines get drawn . Really interesting question. When we first started the efforts, we assumed the audience would care about social issues first and we were incorrect in assuming that. A lot of people assume thats what the audience cares about. We were all over the midwest and northeast and talking to these students and talking to millennials as a whole, and honestly just talking to our friends, as we are millennials, what weve seen is that the number one thing for them is the economy, international security, and worrying about student loans. This is an audience that is inheriting a tremendous amount of debt, that social security, while they might not be not a sexy term to talk about in your 20s and 30s, its something thats coming up and its something that, i think, the economy matters so much to this audience, i think more than their parents probably realize it matters to them. Danielle, when you hear the candidates courting millennials, trying to speak to millennials in this home stretch, do you think whats most important to them is trying to sway their vote from the other candidate or just to get them out to the polls . You know, i think it depends. I think that weve seen so much talk about millennials and as a company that represents female millennials, a lot of the language out there is pretty disappointing, and i think that, you know, thinking about millennials as this huge voting bloc, its been an interesting strategy to have that language out there, because if you need millennials to turn out and need female millennials turning out, talking with some disparaging language about them is probably not an effective strategy and i think thats something that weve seen, that people are, you know, have been unhappy with their choices going into this, but overall they are unhappy with this election and i think that is something that, you know, doesnt matter if youre a millennial, thats across the country, people are really excited for this to be over. Weve seen strong early voting turnout, well see if that continues through tomorrow. Carly, danielle of the skimm, thanks so much for being here. As we go to break, take a look where we stand here, dow close to session highs up 313, and the s p now within 30 points of recovering the losses it sustained over those nine straight down days. Were back after a break. Im only in my 60s. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. To me, relationships matter. Ive been with my doctor for 12 years. Now i know ill be able to stick with him. 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I have a lifetime of experience. So i know how important that is. Coming up on the halftime report, markets are rallying ahead of the election. Were going to talk to one biganytime strategist who says stocks are going up no matter who wins the race for the white house. Plus, a contrarian call on a dow stock thats been a battleground for months. And why one firm upgraded biogen, who say they hope they dont forget the move. Will they . John, well see you in about 20 minutes. Thanks, scott. Not just the broader markets, some key names are also watching, shares of oracle are moving higher, the company is now set to close that netsuite deal with more than 50 of the shares that are not controlled by Larry Ellison. It had been in question, t. Rowe price was in question whether they how hard theyd fight this deal, but now regardless it appears oracle has gotten netsuite, that gives them a new tool in the cloud when it comes to trying to capture some of that mid market market share that theyve talking about targeting with this deal, and, of course, Larry Ellison did have a big stake in the suite, having helped to start it, but those shares were not counted toward how this eventual deal would turn out. Was it always thought to be a given, considering ellison held those shares . It was at first, but then they had trouble actually getting all the shares to vote out. It looked perhaps too sweet a deal for oracle. T. Rowe price, though, on both sides, netsuite, but also oracle, so the question was how it eventually would work out. Now, it does appear that theyve got it. Lets get over to Rick Santelli here and get the santelli exchange. Good morning, rick. Good morning, carl. Four or five years ago, many of the people i sberp viewed that had a long history of dealing in the human aspects of this business really questioned the signals of the market place and the new Artificial Intelligence computer, high speed institutionalized type trading world we live in, and most of their comments really were regarding trying to handicap what the falling rise of rates means, the equity markets, what it means about the economy, but the story has gotten much bigger. Post brexit, and i know i talk about brexit a lot, i have a feeling tomorrow no matter who wins theres still going to be a brexit factor to how the returns turn out, and the reason its important is, these signals probably arent very valuable anymore. And not its not a negative thing, its just the way things are. Anybody whos taken statistics understands the bigger your sample is, the better your results are, but i challenge anybody to talk to any programmers are people involved in computerized trading to write code or write the algos and what you find is, first of all, the biggest and the best that do this say that most of the trading patterns and most of the trading coding is very similar. So, are the results beneficial . After brexit, 86 , youve heard it before, the day of are in favor of staying, so wheres it all gone wrong . There was a time ten years ago when these betting websites really had their heyday and what money was purposed in any type of way to try to handicap the future was highly accurate. Not true anymore. And this is really significant. You know, you look right now, if you look at the percentage change between the dow, the dax, the nikkei, they are almost on top of each other, each about 1 3 4 , i challenge you to find such a high correlation and all the dynamics that are driving these economies or all the debt that belies these economies. We just had great young people on from the skimm and they are very idealistic, i get it, but many of these sites where they get their news are more ek cochamber than fact finding missions. About debt, the girls talked about debt, but debt needs to be a highlight, its a highlight in their lives. Talk to a young person about his deal with the Affordable Care act, talk about how much debt they have, Job Opportunities they have, whether they are going to get a nickel from social security. These are big issues. What the markets say to me is, everybody looks about the same with regard to the output of where their markets are, but it doesnt reflect the knew answnue differences, whether its the economy or the ideology of their citizens. Tomorrows going to be a wakeup call. Things have changed, and maybe we need to change what we see when we see a market up or down when we see results of betting websites trying to tell us what our future will be. Carl, back to you. We are going to find out tomorrow. A large degree. Rick, thank you so much. Rick santelli. When we come back, were going to head to the border where one traditionally red state is on the fence of turning blue. Well turn to arizona and whats ahead for that state when squawk alley returns. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. So we know how to cover almost almoanything. Hing, even a rodent ridealong. [dad] alright, buddy, dont forget anything [kid] i wont, dad. [captain rod] happy Tuesday Morning captain rod here. Its pretty hairy out on the interstate. Traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. Getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. December 14th, 2015. And we covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back . Say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. Comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet thats 10 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. Say hello to internet speeds up to 150 mbps. And add phone and tv for only 34. 90 more a month. Call today. Comcast business. Built for business. A lot of reports out this weekend about a surge in latino early voting, and out in arizona republicans are hoping thats a good sign. Contessa brewer is live in arizona with more. Hey, contessa. Reporter hey there, carl. Here in na ga las people know what the proposed wall will do. After all, they have a fence that separates arizona from mexico and stretches miles. This area is more than 90 latino and overwhelmingly democrat, but the state Republican Party says, look, the democrats are taking the latino vote for granted, so arizonas gop is making an intense push to win support, food drives, toys for tots campaigns, and is staffing its very first republican headquarters here in a shop that imports mexican arts and crafts. The owner was a democrat until a year ago, now running as a republican for local office. Trump is saying that hes going to create more jobs, hes going to be make America Great again, and im looking more in the county. Great. Reporter but with the Unemployment Rate here at 12. 6 and tourism plummeting, the peso weak against the dollar, Business Owners report profits off by 40 over last year, so for a lot of them trumps stand against free trade with mexico is a tough sell. That would kill nogales. Right now its barely surviving. If trump does win, its going to kill whatever nogales has left over. Reporter twice as many latinos have participated in early voting here in arizona as in 2012. Also motivated by referendums on legalizing marijuana and raising the minimum wage, but top of mindwage. Top for latino families, the president ial election. For families on both sides of the border, theres a lot of anxiety about what happens after the election. Its a big story. Thank you so much. Donald trump stumping in sarasota. Both candidates making their final pitch in voters in battleground states. Joining us, tad divine and rick tyler. Good morning to you both. Rick, you talk about clinton trying to defend a big blue wall. What do you mean by that . Essentially right now shes got a wall that shes defending, its a blue wall, its blue states. Its important to note its not a red wall. What donald trump needs to do is break that blue wall somewhere. Thats why you see here in these states that dont have early voting like New Hampshire, like shes been in michigan, several questioning why shes in michigan. Its because they dont have early voting. They dont have good data on how the turnout is going to be. She lost michigan to Bernie Sanders. She wants to make sure that doesnt happen again. If we go along with that, where is the biggest potential fissure . All the states that trump goes in, they have reason to believe they can succeed there. In pennsylvania, where they have been targeting. I dont think the blue wall is going to crumble. Id much rather be defending a blue wall than trying to knock down a red wall a day before the election. I think thats trumps problem. He has no place to go. When you look at the way this is working out, having another Democratic Administration after eight years would be highly unusual. So many of the demographics seem to be lining up against trump. What is the Republican Party going to do postmortem its still a big if this goes against donald trump . If it goes again donald trump, the Republican Party is going to have a fight. There will be a brawl. A breakdown between the party. Its win at all cost. If we win, what do we win . Its an important question. The other is the establishment. There are lots of establishment leaders. Establishment is in charge. It lost its meaning a little bit. We know who the establishment is. They dont have a great track record of electing getting republicans ee llected to offic. Then you have the conservative wing which is leadership, messageless and has little organization. Who lost . Whose fault is it . Its the winner of the argument that will determine the party. The message that was the biggest threat to the blue wall came out of the fbi, not from the other candidate. 40 million early votes were cast between the two disclosures by jim comey. What was the net affect of that . In one sense, people made up their mind about the emails a long time ago. It clearly had a negative affect on the campaign, because momentum is the most dangerous thing to have a candidate have your opponent have in the closing days. Trump has clearly has it. She has a turnout advantage, money advantage, advertising advantage. These states are in her favor. He has to run the table on all of the swing states and has to break one of these blue states, either pennsylvania, which would do it, New Hampshire, with some combination of michigan. But right now, there would have to literally be a vote out there we dont see. Tad, is there a stubborn element of sanders constituency that still refuses to back her . Is that damaging at all, even on the margin . I dont think so. I think the people who supported Bernie Sanders understand the differences between donald trump and Hillary Clinton on issues they care about, issues like health and education, Something Like Climate Change where he denied it exists, i think they understand that those issue differences are profound. Bernie has been campaigning across the country, encourage people to support hillary. The sanders voters for the most part, a large percentage of them who participate are going to support Hillary Clinton. Tad, if this turns out as a clinton victory thats the way the polls at least have been leaning in the last days it seems to me that the latino vote is going to be a huge part of the story, in arizona as we were talking about, whichever way that tilts, certainly in florida. During the obama presidency, there was a lot of disappointment about how he handled or didnt handle the issue of a grand bargain about immigration. What happens after this election on issues like that given the latino vote looks to be pivotal . I think you are right. I think the latino vote could be difference in many states, really important states like nevada and florida and elsewhere. And i think whats going to happen is, it needs to be responded to. If Hillary Clinton is president and can find a way to lead Immigration Reform into law, i think shes going to consolidate that new emerging base of the Democratic Party which includes latinos and africanamericans and young people and others. Its got to be a top priority. She will use all the power of the presidency to acheeieve as much as she can. The only way to fix this is with legislative help. The republicans have to understand if they dont change their position when it comes to latino voters, they will be marginalized as a major party. We are about to learn a lot about what the American People are thinking and how much these organizations were able to accomplish on the ground. Tad, rick, thank you. Appreciate it very much. Markets continue to be in rally mode. Dow is up 336. This would be among the four best gains of the year. Back after a break. Is it a force of nature . Or a sales event . The season of audi sales event is here. Audi will cover your first months lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. bing obviously, hard to take your eyes off the markets this morning. Dow up 337. We continue to climb. S p, 2127. To get back all of what we lost over nine days, you would have to return to 2153. Market is working to get there. We will see if it holds. Interesting to debate whether this is Short Covering from the decline that we had seen over the last week or whether this is real fresh money coming in that wants to buy going forward. Financials, health care, those sectors leading higher. Under siege in the election cycle of late. Where technology is concerned, its enterprise having a strong morning. Semiconductors, storage and cloud. Look at amd, net app and then the storage names, Western Digital and c gate all surging more than 5 right now. Followed by named like hp enterprise, amazon, splunk. Remarkable. Two stocks im watching, ksu. Kansas city southern, a referendum on nafta, giving the work they do transporting goods to and from mexico. Twitter went public three years ago today which got completely lost. If we hadnt been in the midst of an election, we would have talked about that. It was a textbook ipo at the time. Unbelievable. 26 a share right over here. I remember that day. Lets get over to the judge and the half. Thanks, welcome to the halftime report. Our top trade this hour, this market rally. Stocks bouncing back today, now on track to break their longest losing streak in 36 years. That surge coming one day before americans hit the polls. We will talk about that this hour. With joe , josh, jim and steve. Steve, i start with you. Dow is almost back to where it was before the losing streak. S p has work to do. What do do you before we go to election day . I added some exposure. It was light an exposure and