Holding steady at 5. 8 . And corporate news, cbs is still on dish network this morning. The two sides failing to reach a deal by last nights deadline. It will continue to be distributed by dish while negotiations continue. And sprb president obama will be announcing his for a new secretary of defense today. Andrew, good morning. Thank you, becky. Stocks to watch this morning, discount retailer five below offering a disappointing Sales Outlook for its keep Holiday Quarter. The Company Naming its new ceo. Gap, better than expected sales. Big drive, its old navy brands. And then American Eagle outfitters warning its Holiday Quarter earnings will fall short of estimates. The teen retailer sales weak mall traffic and online competition is hurting and then theres the result that the Cooper Company is missing wall streets mark. And Fiber Optics Company is posting earnings and revenue blow estimates. Among the reason they say weaker demand for Telecom Products and wiresless application receivers. Then theres smith and wesson. The company says softer demand for guns continuing to hurt the bottom line. Instead of tasting very good, what dew like better, cavee even or wait a secretary. Cavene high suggests you get a high and you crash. Well see. The stock trading near alltime highs. What i would like to remember is when howard shurlts came back to fix things and where the stock was. Wasnt it about 25 or something and the b a ristas were rude . Alex bald whip got in a fight with them or something. Manager makes a difference. The coffee giant unveiling a plan. Even alcoholic beverages, mobile ordering and a delivery service, the companys goal is to nearly double annual revenue by 2019, which would be no small feat. You can see its 81. As a result, it got down to Single Digits at one point, didnt it, in the last ten years . I think. Or teens, anyway. And, you know, eventually, he had sort of moved into philanthropy and had some other things going on. How long is that chart that weve got . I think that might okay. Thats only what is that . Thats only a one year. All right. Maybe we can eventually call that up. We should be able to do this quickly. Its coming. Bringing it. Was it about three years ago . Do you remember, was it three or four years ago . Time flies, yeah. It was way longer than that. It might be longer than that. Mine is froeden, too. Were having some issues with the computers this morning. In the meantime, lets take a look at whats happening with the markets this morning. Youll see the features at this point are indicated slightly higher. Sps up by about 9 points and or s p futures up by 3 points and the nasdaq up by about 9 points. In europe in early trade this morning, already you see some strong gains both for germany and france. Kashg up by 1. 2 . And in asia overnight, the nikkei ended up slightly. Hang seng up by 0. 7 . Oil prices, wti is below 67 a barrel. 66. 33. If you thought it couldnt go lower, you were wrong. The bond market at this point has a yield on the tenyear. The dollar this morning, at least at this point, looks like its up against the yen, up against the euro which is at 1. 1. 236. A lot of talk, but not a lot of action. Gold prices at this hour look down by about four bucks. Before you go, howard shurlts, january 2008. Oh, my god. So six years. Six years. Do you have the price . I do not have the price. And the big question once we do the math is going to be how did starbucks do relative to the market. They clearly outperformed the market in a major, major way. October 2008 . What did you say, january 2008 . Theyre continue to go drop. And i remember the narrative was that there are so many starbucks, that theyre on adjacent corners so theyre cannibalizing each other and theres no way to fix this thing. And he comes back in and says im going to do this, this and this. Then they had some bad experiences with sandwiches. The food smells, remember that . Yeah. Do you have a market cap currently . Its up ten times in value in market cap. What is the market cap now . Its Pretty Amazing that he was able to market cap is now 60 billion. How is that possible . That is amazing. Good management. It is. Believe it or not, jimmy rogers giving all of his long calls that have lasted forever at this point in terms of bonds and commodities. He said at one point that coffee was when was this . In the early 90s. 1971. He didnt found green mountain. He bought the original one, did he . Or did he i think there might have been one, but the idea of turning into a chain is one of those. And a chain like this. He went to allen and he said i want to put coffee on every corner. Allen went home and told his wife this is the most idiotic thing. Of course he said pad. No. That is a good allen story, one that i like. Well see if were going to put up a dow chart ten years from now and it will look like that. The market is focusing on the jobs report due out. The s p 500 looking to increase its winning streak. Covering the economic angle, steven rushido, chief economist at zuhou. Look how they do it for me. I just want give me give you credit . No. Put the name in. Mizuhou. All right. Let me start with you. On this. Because i figured, number one, im going to have to were making some predictions after this today. Did you know that . Yes. Im doing mine on monday. You get two more days to think about it . Yes. I want to see what you have to say and then i can come up with mine. Here is what im thinking. I dont know whether i should waste them now and actually tell, but here is what im thinking, ed. Were at zero in this country and we havent even started to raise rates. I figure next year, capital will continue to come in here. Once we start raising, think about the differential and yields should make our dollar Even Stronger theoretically. Same saying maybe the market continues to do better and maybe the saudis stabilize it at 60. I think thats a pretty good call. Really . Yeah. The United States is our favorite place to be. So i think were going to have probably another good year next year. Eventual eye valuations will limit. But with Interest Rates as low as they are, and i think a very positive economic back drop in the United States with the stronger dollar, with stronger growth even before those started. I think were going to have a pretty good year again next year. Steven, you may have some work some move of my predictions on you. The economy has done this well without washington becoming friends with each other. I dont think that necessarily gets much better when both sides double down. I can the gop is going to be mad because of this immigration thing. The president a this point has shown no willingness in the past to abandon any of his corporal. But the market has done this well without that and continues to do well without any help. Not the market, the me. Is that what you think . They will continue to put in what weve been having over the last several years. There is no reason to expect that to change. What about the three . I can its goes back to the question in terms of the currency. There are a couple of things to keep in mind with regard to that. Does europe avoid deflation . If not, your havent isy story goes the opposite direction for you. Deflation leads to a stronger euro. Right now, the bet is that the ecb is going to win on deflation. If the currency stories going exactly the opposite, this is exactly what happens in japan, why the yen moved from over 300 all the way back down to 80 and its long appreciation product. Now everyone is betting deflation doesnt take hold in europe. But to be honest with you, given the way europe is going, you have to be very careful. You know, even if you think about it, a year ago this time, everyone was telling you, europe is going to be the story of 2014, right . Germany was going to pull europe out of the slight. We were looking at deflation in europe at about 1, 1. 25 . So the answer is six months is maybe all we need. That is how touchy this situation is and thats why i think you have to be careful of some of those beds. That doesnt necessarily mean the financial flows are going to move. What really happens in that environment is you have to question whether or not you want to be in that space, especially if you have policy principal sit take hold in europe. Policy paralysis. We have a proactive policy standpoint. It doesnt necessarily go against your story about the economics and the economy because it holds the fed off from raising rates. Here is the other thing i was thinking. What Becca Patterson was talking about how strong dollar hurts our exports. I think 60 oil allows manufacturing to mrourish, anyway. Is europe that important for us to export to europe can it can hurt our growth at this point . Energy is an important commodity. Thats it. The dollar stays strong. Theyve got all kinds of structural problems that we know about in these countries. Then even in the good countries, like germany that has its economics together, theyre thrown together with this hodgepodge trying to use these same Interest Rates and the whole thing is jury rrigged. Its never going to work. Europe has been meandering for years and the deflationary pressures are accumulating globally. That is one of the big problems. 20 minutes, becky. Now youve thoroughly confused me. I have no idea what im going to do. No one will know what to do and that way they cant see if im right or wrong. Surprises. Its so unlikely, most of them dont come true. But just put them out there. So dour about europe. I am dour about europe. If hes right, is there any way to turn it around . Yeah, go there. Youre making it up. When the euro is worth a dollar, go there. Mario draghi is running things. There is still a chance. Its a political issue more than any other. I think temperature survival of the euro is can we do anything more than talk, though . I think he is trying very hard to put a coalition together to do more aggressive policy. Yesterday it sounded like they were pushing it off further and further. Its technically much more difficult to do qe with all the different nations. So its not an easy problem, politically or economically. I guess im more optimistic will the future of europe. From an investment point of view, even though we are cautious shortterm, its rel cheap relative to the United States. I think youre better off paying the more consistent growth in the United States. There will come a time when you get a better bang for your buck on the investment perspective. Steven englander is the global head of strad strategy at citi. Where would you be placing your betts for the next year . I would place them on the long dollar. In fact, i disagree with steve because i really think that the issue isnt whether europe is in deflation or not or what the Interest Rate is. The issue is the measures that the europeans are going to take to get themselves out of deflation. Right now, the only policy tools they are is money printing. They disappointed the markets yesterday be being more tentative about the schedule. All of the indications are they are going to get. His focus was on hitting their mandate and the Lower Oil Prices are going to do a lot of damage to the Inflation Numbers in the coming months. I would say that, you know, the strong dollar on the trade base just isnt that strong. Were up maybe 5 , 6 since the beginning of the year because we dont trade as much with japan as we do with china. And conversely, the euro isnt as weak when it seems when you look at the move against the dollar. The trading partners have done almost as poorly and in some cases worse than they have. I think theres a lot more policy to come. That is my question. They havent been that if we were overly impressed with both of thoughts moves, does that mean theres much further to go . Or are you saying that theyre already is that what youre saying . Yeah, all of the above. I think the evidence that we have is that the dollar seems to be respond to go catch rates. The twoyear differential versus the basis points, not the 100 yield curve. It could go a lot further. I think europes problems by the depreciation that theyve had. Will they have really be able to embrace reinflating . I think germany, since theyre in the drivers seat, theyre still so worried about inflation, i was thinking about draghi or the ecb. When theyre tight, they always seem to say tight for way too long. Remember the last time around . They stayed way too tight. Some people thought that was great. But others said, this guy, they drag their feet. Are they still thinking about the wheelbarrow full of money . I think the incident isnt tenday putting enough liquidity into the system. What theyre trying to do now is to find ways of getting money directly to borrowers. It doesnt mean the corner growth is going to get be able to borrow. So their battle is to keep europe afloat until they can get the mechanism in place to make Monetary Policy more effective. So i think that right now, the policy is absolutely focused on the exchange rate. Thats the only way of avoiding deflation. Though think longer term, get the monetary mechanism to work. Your number today . 200. Were right there. Can i ask you quickly, youve been right for a long time about the markets. Youve been very bullish. Are you equally optimistic looking at 2015 . I am. I think well see another year of double digit gains. This market lasts forever. Eventually we will have to make a transition into a lower return environment. I think we have at least another year to go, maybe more than that. Good to hear. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Thank you. When we come back, ibm firing back at its critics. People around this table i know, including myself, the cfo making his argument today. We will bring you that debate when squawk box returns in just a moment. According to str and tourism somethings, demand for lodging is on the rise. And with Hotel Occupancy at its highest level in decades, the rate for a onenight state is expected to rise next year. Just how much will a room cost you . Find out next. Ed a control freak. I like to think of myself as more of a control. Enthusiast. Mmm, a perfect 177degrees. And thats why this road warrior rents from national. I can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. And i dont have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. And i dont. And national lets me choose any car in the aisle. Control. Its so, whats the word . Sexy. Go national. Go like a pro. Back now with todays travelers check. On average, how much will travelers pay per night for a hotel in 2015 . 121, a 5 increase from last year. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Ibm has been facing criticism for its buyback strategy. Abms cfo is responding. He writes in part, we are stewards of our shareholders capital. This makes us a supportable investment is to invest to earn profit, not just revenue. But fund our investments and our return of capital through the creation of profits. In the case of ibm, we are no longer raising Additional Capital equity. Ibm has managed to do both. The question, though, therefore, becomes if they had used that capital instead of for buy backs for other things, would they be in batter position . This isnt addressing the problem. People arent against necessarily buying back stock. If your revenue res driving. I forget the metric and im not going to say it. But in terms of revenue, its below where it was like five years ago. Theyre getting rid of the stuff that doesnt make it nonprofitable. Some people that i respect listen to her plan when she was on with squawk on the street. And they said they bought into it. If you tell me whether ibm has the right strategy for the cloud, i have no idea. You dont want a lot of the stuff thats basically youre just spinning your wheels with. You definitely dont want the company to be shrinking and the only way youre getting earnings is by this is addressed to some degree, but not completely. Has it gone anywhere since the big selloff . Its about 163, 160 something. Well see. If at first you dont succeed, try again. Nasa is on track to launch orion yesterday. Jane wells. Im glad they didnt tell you it could be every 10 minutes yesterday so you werent standing there overnight. Were you . You slept somewhere, right . Yes, i did. I did sleep, but everybody is excited. Currently everything is a go for liftoff at 7 05 eastern. This will be take two of this first test, an unmanned test to test all the Critical Systems of a craft that could eventually take human toes mars. What we do not want to see is a repeat of yesterday, this, seeing the orion sitting on that launchpad for a full day. Rain, clouds, winds, but right now, the weather is good to go. Another problem, have the rocket scientists solved yesterdays rocket problem . The launch was scrubbed because the delta iv heavy sat out here so long due to wind delays and that boat that got in the way, that the liquid Hydrogen Fuel that got in the tanks, negative 424 degrees fahrenheit, it caused a couple of valves to get sluggish and they wouldnt close. They have to close before you lift off. This is something that we have seen on one previous heavy launch where we had a long window and had gone into it. So were off today, going to execute the same procedures that we did after that last attempt and very confident that were going to be able to exonerate the hardware and make an attempt. Youre looking at a live picture now of the orien and delta rock out there. Were waiting to see if this happens. He has said this has happened before with the delta iv. Some were asking if maybe the valves are an actual problem. The valve has worked perfectly many times. Well have to see what happens at 7 05 been lets hope the weather holds. The launch lasts until 9 44 this morning. If they dont lift off today, theyve only rented the launchpad through tomorrow, but they wont be able to launch tomorrow because they need to get more fuel truck necessary here. So they may try to stay here through sunday, but after that they may be out of luck for a while because of support personnel issue for other launches that are planned. Back to you. Thats news to me, who do they represent it from . You rent it from Cape Canaveral. This is Cape Canaveral, an air force property. So you negotiate for days when they have support personnel to help you with the launch. Jane, im just wondering, for a while, that entire area down there had kind of gone from boom to sort of things had slowed down around there because yeah. Has it bounced off the lows . Is it better now . The diners, just across the board it had slowed down. Nats sa still tried to support an infrastructure here. They didnt have a lot to do after the Shuttle Program went away. Spacex has a launchpad that it uses, too. There is this, of course, the orion project, along with the sls which will be what launches next time. A lot of money. A lot of work. And that is the biggest building in the world, right . Are you tacking about the Assembly Building . Yes. And when its lit up, it has this tremendous American Flag on the side. Im not sure if its the largest building in the world. Youre like, wow, im glad its mine. You see big birds flying around out there. I have a story about that. They have vultures. On the top of that building, its apparently a disgusting site. Eagles or whoever, birds of prey will take their kill there to let it dry out and get back to it later. Ooh. Kind of like jerksy. Yuck. Yes. Fried meat. From the sun. Yum. Yum. By the way, the vehicle Assembly Building is one of the large echt buildings in the world by volume, one of. Ive been there. Seen it. Cool. Very cool. Thats why i remember. You look up and you cant appreciate how big it is until you realize those are big birds. And you think youre getting close to it and you still have ten miles to go. Jane, dont mess this up today, please. We want to do it. You got it. The largest single story in the world was the tallest building in 1974. It is still the tallest building in the United States out of an urban area. Up next, millions of americans are now quitting their jobs. Is that the best sign yet that the economy is Getting Better . We will talk to the head hauncho of one of the top headhunters after the break. Plus is that man ready to throw his hat into the ring . We are seeing signs that mitt romney wants to make another run at the white house. Follow the money, when squawk box returns. Dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future. You. Thank you for being my hero and my dad. Military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa Auto Insurance could be one of them. If youre a current or former military member or their family, get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Open port twentytwoohoneseven on the firewall for customer db access. Install version twopointthree of db connector and ensure verbose flag is set in case of problems. clapping sound isnt the cloud supposed to make business easier . Get the one that can connect to the systems that you already have. Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Dad yeah, 20 something years now. Thinking about what you want to do with your money . Daughter looking at options. What do you guys pay in fees . Dad i dont know exactly. Daughter if youre not happy do they have to pay you back . Dad it doesnt really work that way. Daughter you sure . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management at charles schwab. Welcome back to squawk box. We have been struck by a new statistic. Check out this cover of usa today. It says nearly 2. 8 million americans quit their jobs in september. Thats the most since the spring of 2008, reflecting a strengthening economy. Here to talk about the job picture as cross america, good morning to you. Good morning to you. You put together an interesting list of where the jobs are. But this is kind of a high end list. Its a list of where the jobs are. Yeah, i think the strengthening economy and the fact that Companies Realize that they can no longer cut costs on their way to prosperity. It involves the chief inme vafb officer. We see a lot of upward pressure on those companies and positions where growth is the factor. Is there like a title inflation going on . It used to be when you had somebody who was in charge of technology. Now they sort of have these other sort of much fancier titles. Or how the role unto itself changed . No, i think its a role unto itself. I think its increasing a reflection of the title. Dont a lot of them report to the board at this point, too . If youre concerned about security, thats a position that people are saying, this needs to be somebody who directly reports to the board. Do you have any sense, by the way, on what jobs are getting paid these days . I think compensation in general is going up. In the strength of the economy and the growing economy, theres a lot of supply demand. I think we will see compensation along with them. One of them is chief sustainability officer. Thats correct. What does that mean exactly . Thats all about how you can sustain growth and you sustain the use of energy and resources within the organization. But lets go through some of the industries as we have them on the screen here. Diver Security Risk management, Risk Management and security. Are we putting those in the right order . Im mott sure theres any particular order. I think were all in growth mode. Social media is a hot area. 1. 0 social media. 2. 0 is when companies begin to take control of their own social networks. Its goes to disrupt the business situation. Bob, thank you for joining us this morning. Thank you for having me. Good job. Appreciate it. Bob dam in. What did i say . Watered out question. Oh, you thought matt damon . No. Ive got to look at things more closely. Healthywater. Org. Thats all. I knew it wasnt up next, uber gets a huge number on its valuation. Plus, amazon has its own brand of diapers. Is this a Smart Business move or is the ecommerce giant stretching too far . And a possible major market mover. First, though, a quick check off whats happening. Green arrows across the board. Gains of 1. 6 both in france and in germany. Financial noise financial noise financial noise come from all walks of life. If you have high blood sugar, ask your doctor about farxiga. Its a different kind of medicine that works by removing some sugar from your body. Along with diet and exercise, farxiga helps lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. With one pill a day, farxiga helps lower your a1c. And, although its not a weightloss or bloodpressure drug, farxiga may help you lose weight and may even lower Blood Pressure when used with certain diabetes medicines. Do not take if allergic to farxiga or its ingredients. Symptoms of a serious allergic reaction include rash, swelling or difficulty breathing or swallowing. If you have any of these symptoms, stop taking farxiga and seek medical help right away. Do not take farxiga if you have severe kidney problems, are on dialysis, or have bladder cancer. Tell your doctor right away if you have blood or red color in your urine or pain while you urinate. Farxiga can cause serious side effects, including dehydration, genital yeast infections in women and men, low blood sugar,kidney problems, and increased bad cholesterol. Common side effects include urinary tract infections, changes in urination, and runny nose. Do the walk of life yeah, you do the walk of life need to lower your blood sugar . Ask your doctor about farxiga and visit our website to learn how you may be able to get every month free. Welcome back to squawk box. Uber now reportedly in talks to sell more than 1 billion in convertible debt. This comes just after the Ride Sharing Service raised 1. 2 billion in its latest funding round. The headline here, the funding value of the start up, now 40 billion. Just 18 billion six months ago. About 18 billion was completely and utterly not yeah. Well see. We should tell you about amazon. Its entering a new category, its own line of diaperes and baby wipes. The new line is called amazon elements. One analysts notes this could bring tougher competition for Companies Like procter gamble. Its a risk when you get into areas like diapers. Thats something parents will tend to pay up for. I tried these green diapers one time on kyle, they were supposed to be good for the environment. Green in color . No, green for the environment. They started green. Ive changed green diapers they gave him a rash on his rear end. I never used anything but huggies again after that, ever. All right. I like diaper rashes . No, no. I like diaper analogies. Yeah. Like hearing about things like that. So theyre not made out of something green, theyre supposed to seal no, theyre supposed to be ecologically better. Why dont you just use cotton and wash them every time if you want to why dont you. Yeah, right. Thats it. Dip them in the toilet, wash them, flush them, put them in the washer, put them in the dryer. Youve tried that . That is tmi right there. Tomorrow in san francisco, massive cancer conference gets under way called ash, which is sort for the American Society of hematology. A host of big name stocks will be moving on the data from this gathering. Meg terrell is here to tell us why pharma. Biotech investors are paying close attention. Before you do, how interested were you in this piece on super survivors, all about what you have brought us many times, and that is this new crest of drugs that ramps up someones immune system. Its a fascinating piece on the front page continued on a10 about people that were goners. They tried this experimental stuff and some of them have been alive ten years. Im sure immunotherapy will be part of tomorrows conference. This year, a. S. H. Is shaping up to be a big deal. A lot of the same themes like immunotherapy. Theyre working pb1 inhibiters which harness the system to fight cancer. Another approach is ramping up tcells to better ive and fight cancer and giving the blood back. This has been some amazing results. Its early, but Companies Like novartis are working in this space and there are a lot of Smaller Companies working in this space, as well. Theres targeted therapies Like Pharmaceuticals and cyclicals. Were seeing those getting new data. Gene therapy is an interesting area in some blood disorders, seeing Companies Like bluebird. A lot of these high Biotech Companies will be moving. Cellgene is a huge Cancer Company that has partnered with a lot of these smaller biotechs. Youre seeing companies having data and you can also play this through cellgene. That is what everybody is watching. Bluebird is only a 1. 2 million market cap. Does that make it a target for the Bigger Companies . Absolutely. All of these biotechs probably are. But theyre so overly its a high risk for anybody to buy it this early, but i think everybody would say these companies are potentially targets. When you think about it, and i know you know this, but its almost more amazing that we all dont get cancer than people do get cancer. When you think about how often each cell replicates itself and how many things have to go right with each base pair and things always go wrong, you normally see it and you cut it out and you repair it. As you get older, that process seems to become less effective. Thats what they say is that at some point if you get old enough, unfortunately probably everybody would get cancer. But normally your immune system sees it and stamps it out. Its nonself, this is not normal, the glycoproteins are there or whatever and it gets rid of it. If you can ramp up the immune system or almost tip off the immune system, that this is here and you can pretty much handle your own cancer. Right. And instead of trying to kel it and kill your other cells with chemotherapy, you can harness this system. Should be exciting and were so kwlad youre here because youre excited about it. That, too. Coming up, we are going to fast forward to 2016. Why wall street backers are singing mitt romneys praises. Well see what that all means in just a moment when squawk box returns. No. Its called grid iq. The 4 51 is leaving at 4 51. They cut the power. Itll fix itself. Powers back on. Quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. Thrillingly predictable. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection srx for around 359 a month. Twhat do i do . You need to catch the 4 10 huh . The Equipment Tracking system will get you to the loading dock. There should be a truck leaving now. I got it. Now jump off the bridge. What . In 3. 2. 1. Are you kidding me . Go. Right on time. Right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. We call that predictable. Thrillingly predictable. Talking politics now. Buzz is building that maybe mitt romney is ready to do it again, run for president in 2016. Multiple reports hes been meeting with big donors in new york. Could the third time be the charm . Joining us now is politico chief correspondent and also a cnbc contributor. One thing ive been hearing for i dont know if its a whole year, ben is that you need to think long and hard between buyers remorse and launching a new campaign and whether the outcome would be different. Theres a lot of people going, wow, romney that first debate, how president ial he seemed. Thats different than beating hillary in 2016. That was a pretty crappy campaign that was run, wasnt it . Yeah. Made some mistakes. I had people made mistakes. Etchasketchs and not addressing private equity and hiding and doing rope a dope on the next two debates. Maybe they learned from their mistakes. The point of this recent change in tone is that romney is going around to wall street folks and telling them keep your powder dry. If you havent found a candidate you love yet why is he in the lead in polls . Name i. D. Mainly. The fact of the matter is he sees himself as the leader of the establishment Republican Party. He doesnt think anybody in the field right now and even if jeb bush gets in, he doesnt think hes the leader. Why not . Theres a history with the bush family there and the romneys. Oh, yeah . Tell us more. Im not going to get into their personal issues. Why not . Because i dont know them well enough to discuss them openly. Youre suggesting theres a history. We need to know about the history. The important part of the history is he is not going to be differential to jeb bush. What did the president do . Something happened happened. Now youre going to press me on the personal issues. And all i know is what the wall street journal people told us. Wait a second. None of these guys who have been competitors probably like each other anyway. To some degree, yeah. But theres also theres big family tectonic plates. Thats what were trying to come back to. You keep coming back to it and teasing us. Do some reporting and then come back to us. Sure. The report is on mitt and the way he changed tone on this. Now it looks like the stars are not aligned and he might go. His wife has said no way. We dont want to do this, our family doesnt want to do this. That happens a lot. I think shes being supportive. I thought i read in your piece its not any longer that if you cant find somebody else, im here. That its im already here. Are we somewhere in between there . I think were closer to you havent found anyone else and it would be me. So straight up then, whos more electable . Jeb or mitt . Thats a good question. They both come from the same sort of centrist base. I think between the two of them, you know, they both have negatives. Romney not a Great Campaign last time around. Jeb bush is, do we want another bush . Maybe jeb is little bit more electable in an election with hillary. Do crazy nobody dark horses just come out of the Democratic Party . Thats where its happened before. Ive seen a board with 24 possible republican candidates on it, and it doesnt seem to happen that way. Obviously Hillary Clinton isnt. Jimmy carter came out of nowhere. Barack obama. They all made it. And the iraq war for obama. Does that not happen . The only i saw an interview with bobby jindal. That guy is smart and smooth and said all the i was ready to vote for him today. He doesnt have a chance of getting the nomination. He doesnt. The Republican Party almost always nominates the heir apparent next up. There isnt one right now. Mitt has already done it, but he is the de facto leader of the party. In the tradition of the Republican Party, it would be one of them. Weve got to run, but if its jeb, mitt, chris christie, who does wall street support . I think there will be enough money for all of those three, but probably jeb, mitt, then christie third. Ben, great to see you. Always a pleasure. When we come back this morning, the dow creeps closer to 18,000. And we are getting closer to an orion countdown. Nasa said it is a go for 7 05 in terms of a launch. Well bring it to you live when squawk box comes right back. You dont need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. Because we do. Were exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. Because boiling an egg. Isnt as simple as just boiling an egg. Life takes energy. Energy lives here. I love my Meta Health Bars. Because when nutritious tastes this delicious, i dont miss the other stuff. New Meta Health Bars help promote heart health. Experience the meta effect with our new multihealth wellness line. Im just looking over the company bills. Up . Is that what we pay for internet . Yup. Dsl is about 90 bucks a month. Thats funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. Wow thats fast. Personally, i prefer a slow internet. There is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. Dont listen to the naysayer. Switch to comcast Business Today and get 50 megabits per second for 89. 95. Comcast business. Built for business. Jobs friday. Going to look at november employment data. Will it be enough to push the dow over 18,000 . And russian president warning his people of tough times ahead under pressure from low oil prices and a plummeting ruble. Geopolitical expert david gordon details the weapons remaining in russias economic arsenal. And a record year for Dairy Farmers. Time for milking. Morgan brennan on a Wisconsin Dairy farm. Shell tell us why cheese and dairy have been so profitable this year. The second hour of squawk box starts right now. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. Were counting down to the jobs numbers. 230,000 jobs last month. Well see what happens here. Would be nice to get a great number, dollar would strengthen and stock market would go up if that happens. We need growth. I want growth. The Unemployment RateHolding Steady at 5. 8 . Were starting to hear some anecdotal evidence people are Getting Better jobs. Which was one of the problems. No one had the nerve for the last couple of years to tell their employer there was nowhere else to look. Theyre going to watch the average Hourly Earnings too. And is this you . Still you. Because i can sell this. I remember we used to blog about things. Once david faber wrote a famous piece do you remember that . I do. He didnt like to do it very much. You know you used to struggle with those blogs too. His entire blog was its very exciting to see a rocket ship launch. And it is. And it continues to be. And were waiting if they are launch of nasas orion spacecraft expected in when four minutes. It was scrubbed a couple of times yesterday. If you were watching the show, you remember after several problems including the wind and the weather. But then it was a fuel there was a guy in a boat to get out of the way too. Yes. And there were fish jumping around. Well bring you the launch live if it happens. Dont leave us. Could be happening in a couple minutes. That david faber blog was probably over ten years ago. It was, but it was so funny. Because he kind of wanted it out of the way. Im not sure we had blogs. This was literally ten years ago. You were a glimmer in your mothers eye when this went on. But he finally just said, you know what . This is all youre getting. Its exciting to see a rocket ship take off. And it is. Youre right. And we will try to show you that in just a little bit. Hopefully it will take off this morning. In the meantime, headlines for you. Honda says its expanding its u. S. Recall. 3 million additional cars that contain potentially defective air bags made by takata. Also Discount Dollar tree plans to buy Family Dollar as early as february. It does not require more and that was a big issue in that deal. And think the canadian government has approved burger kings deal to buy the tim hortons chain for more than 10. 5 billion in cash and stock. Transaction still needs to be approved by shareholders. But of course the canadians were going to approve this. This wasnt the sort of Elizabeth Warren version of this. It was set up to appease the canadians. It was set up solely for them to improve it. Youre the only person who cares if burger king leaves. I dont care what burger king does. I dont eat there. The whopper is great. They spray some gross stuff on it. The fries are great too. Mcdonalds fries win, but anyway. Were going to go back to Cape Canaveral right now because jane wells is going to join us where the orion spacecraft is counting down to the launch. And jane, take it away. Andrew, were 47 seconds away from launch. Everything looks good at this point. This is the furthest weve gotten so far. Once it takes off in about 40 seconds, the first seven minutes are critical. There will be millions of pounds of thrust. Those rockets will reach mach 1. Were about to let nasa take over as this, the first spacecraft to go higher than anyone capable of carrying humans has done in 42 years in this critical unmanned test. The igniters have been lit. Ten, nine, eight, seven, six five, four, three, two, one. And liftoff. At dawn. The dawn of orion and a new era of American Space exploration. Passing 25 seconds. Velocity 1441 feet per second. Passing 31 seconds. Still looking good. Good engine control. Good Chamber Pressure in all three boosters in the full power mode. 40 seconds in. Standing by to go to the partial thrust mode. And we have partial thrust command in the four. Core pressure expected to drop on the oneminute mark. One minute into flight. Still looking good. Good Chamber Pressure in the core any second now you will see the outer booster rockets fall away. The rocket has now reached mach 1 speeds. Youre now going to have the separation and pretty soon you will see the first critical test, the launch of system. This will be a critical part of future trips. But what it would show is it would allow the crew to escape on launch on liftoff if there was a problem. This for the Lockheed Martin manager are the most critical minutes. Can this get orion into the right altitude for its first rotation around the earth, its first orbit around the earth. That will take a couple of hours. Then the second trip around the earth will take orion to an altitude of 3600 miles. That is 15 times higher oh, you can see the curvature of the earth now. 15 times higher than the International Space station so that it can begin a very high speed descent to earth. 20,000 miles an hour. So the heat shield can be tested at 4,000 degrees handing in the pacific four and a half hours from now. At 2 35 in. We should have the reaction control system activated. Youre hearing nasa tv there. At approximately five minutes after launch two minutes from now, it will enter its first high radiation excuse me. It will reach still looking good. It will be reaching its the desired altitude as it begins its first orbit. 3 16 in. Good engine control. We will have a stage one separation here in two minutes. 3 30 in. Were standing by for the partial thrust mode in the boosters. All right. If you wait in just about 15 more seconds, guys, youre going to see the youre going to see something. Youll see the star board boosters core jetisen. Main engine cutoff. We have cutoff. Gosh. There they go. There they go. Good separation of the boosters. Four booster now powering up to full power mode. All right, guys. Back to you. We will keep you posted as this flight continues, this historic flight of the first capsule capable of carrying humans which will go higher today than any has the apollo missions, we hope. We will know that in a few hours. Back to you. In watching that and being nervous, and once again faber was right long ago. That was very exciting to watch. But weve done it a bunch i mean, i dont know how many shuttle flights were, through there were a lot. Is the technology with the boosters and Everything Else, is it totally different. Was there reason to think that there was, you know, a lot of uncertainty as the weather we would pull it off this time . Or was it sort of similar in terms of the thrusters that are initially taken up . Its not totally different. This is not a new rocket. What would be more interesting would be the second test mission theyre going to do with this in 2017 or 2018. That will be a brand new rocket which will be more powerful. So it was not so. Okay. So it wasnt like the first time weve done it. Weve done hundreds of flights, right . Oh, no, no, no. Well, this particular rocket has launched seven times before. This was its eighth launch. Okay, good. I got the tell you guys, it was amazing being here. Just amazing being here. Just the rattle, everything. It was fantastic. You could feel the earth move, right . Yeah. You could feel it, for sure. Cool. All right. Thank you, jane wells. Good job. Finally, jane. Im glad we stayed with it. The pictures at the end, you think b of everything being so peaceful and calm and quiet. But those were some violent pictures with the launchers. As the countdown to the jobs report goes, lets get to dom chu with a look at the sectors likely to move after the employment numbers. Regardless of what it is, certain sectors react . First of all, i dont know how im supposed to follow jane wells doing a rocket launch. I dont think anybody does a playbyplay better on cable news than jane wells. Lets talk about the jobs report. An Investment Group looked at the last two years of monthly job reports and looked at the s p 500. Asked which sectors do well, say, if we beat the expectations for jobs. Right . So we look at oneday changes. The single best performing sector on the s p 500 if we get a better jobs number than expected is the financials sector. Its up by almost a percent if we get a better number. Second place almost just as good. Industrial stocks up about. 9 . And materials up almost that amount as well. Cyclical and tend to do well if we get a better jobs number. That makes sense. Which ones do the worst if we miss the jobs number . Technology quite flat. Financials, the same. Discretional almost cyclical. If we get a worse than expected jobs number, these are the sectors that get impacted the most here. Over the past couple of years, recent history at least here, this is the kind of market that weve had. A biased one toward the upside. Thats why none of these are negative, per se. And just for a little bit more color, we asked our partners over at kensho about which particular stocks tend to be winners and losers in the s p not in the s p but the large cap overall. And mohawk industries, they make flooring, theyre nearly 2 on average over the past 23 jobs reports. And theyre positive 95 of the time. Ensc o positive 96 of the time. Become over to you guys. Thank you very much. The dow taking aim at the 18,000 mark, but how much tolerance will markets have for an overly strong or weak jobs number today . Joining us now is chief Investment Officer at private bank. Gentlemen, welcome to both of you. Jim, i know that you have been fairly positive on the markets. Were looking at 18,000 snoupz th now. Is this what you expected and what happens next . I thought the market, becky, would come up to the 2,000 area last year and then thought it may struggle therough the rest f the year. Its gone a little bit higher than that now. I think right now were in a goldilocks period. Weve got a day after day good reports on the economy, suggesting real growth in the United States is accelerating. And weve got no inflation or Interest Rate pressures whatsoever that show up. The market could go quite a bit higher. I am suspicious as we move towards full employment here that if we grow in excess of 3 without throwing up some wage pressures, fear or evidence of inflation picking up, and i think the market may struggle with that eventually. But right now its a oneway Freight Train north, i think. May struggle with that eventually. Thats a longer term picture, though, right . I think next year is going to be a little bit more challenging. I dont i dont i think the year may be flat overall, but i think its going to be volatile. We may have some pullbacks. I just think, you know, to me theres three things that bug me. We probably have the calmest most confident sentiment of any time in this recovery. I think its not giddy but its calmer thanst ever been. It has been against a big dose of fear. And i think thats kind of dissipated. Secondly, you know, market is risen 50 in the last three years from about 12 times earnings to 18 times earnings. Thats a big increase in values in a short order. And then i think were going to start resetting Interest Rates next year. And i just think its hard to suggest we move away from zero Interest Rates in this massive program. I think its going to be a little bit more turbulent next year, more challenging than what most seem to think at the moment. Zach, how about you . Theres certainly an argument that the markets come a long way very quickly. But you also have the comparisons with whats happening around the globe. Right. And i had to agree with jim. Were both looking at the same data. Fundamentals are fantastic. I think the only thing i would maybe quibble with is that credit spreads are beginning to widen a little bit. It appears that lenders are starting to pull back their horns. This is a something that went negative in 2007 about a year or so before we had the turbulence in 2008. But beyond that, certainly economic backdrop is great. I think the jobs situation is looking very good. Having artificially low Interest Rates whether it was for the fed or foreign buyers, it will ultimately some day end with two hot inflation coming along the way. I dont know when. Ive been waiting for it for awhile. But the key is valuation. I think valuation is the markets biggest headwind. And im looking for a single digit return next year. Unfortunately i dont know what the sign is. Is it going to be positive . Is it going to be negative . Its going to be pretty flat, but it could be in the negative territory next year. We have the jobs report coming up in less than an hour and 15 minutes. Jack, what are you expecting . Jim, same question. Im calling for 238,000 private payroll jobs. Its a little bit better than economists forecast. Jim . Im right around the 230 number. I think more important, becky, is going to be how much more does the Unemployment Rate drop and what does that average Hourly Earnings number do. If we continue to get drops to the Unemployment Rate thats going to start to change mindsets on wall street. In terms of where the fed moves, you mean . And quit rate, for example. It just spiked. You know, i think were finally starting to see employees emboldened in their jobs. I think its not far theyre going to start to grow. Great talking to you. Thanks. Coming up, Vladimir Putin warning his nation of tough time ace head. David gordon is going to join us next on how the sharply falling ruble can cripple the russian economy. Were going to talk about that and a lot more in just a moment when squawk returns. Will that be all, sir . Thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. And often even more. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 89. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to squawk box. The ruble having a rough few weeks. The dow is up 15 against the russian currency. Meanwhile oil prices, they just keep falling. Down more than 10 over the last 30 days. A topic weve talked a lot about on squawk box recently. Joining us now is david gordon. His first time back with cnbc since taking his new role as president. Good morning to you. How are you, andrew . Im great. Mr. Putin less so, i imagine. What do you make of his recent comments . And what can he do about the Oil Price Situation . Well, he cant do very much. And thats his problem here. That the russians were unwilling to sort of decide with the saudis and others cutting back. So the saudis have said were not going to take any crude off the market and prices are going to fall. And putin is stuck with that. He has to manage it rather than affect it. When you say manage to the extent he can manage it, what does that mean . We talked to your former colleague ian bremmer just a couple days ago. Do you think if prices stay where they are, what happens in russia . Well, i think basically that the rubles going to come under a lot of pressure. They spent some 2 billion yesterday trying to slow down the descent of the ruble. It means theres going to be more inflation. What the russians are trying to do now is to protect their foreign exchange. Theyve got over 300 billion so they still have a lot of room here. I think putins going to really double down. Hes going to try to, i think, find one or two speculators, domestic people to arrest and focus on and try to stem saying im going to call for tough measures. I mean, hes going to lock somebody up . I think hes going to lock somebody up, yeah. Locking somebody up is going to do what . I think its going to potentially scare others domestically by from betting against the ruble. Thats not going to stabilize the ruble. Thats the point. Its not going to stabilize the ruble. So just going to score political points . Yes. So a lot of this, putin right now is at the phase of blaming the troubles on outsiders, blaming it on the west. I think were entering a dangerous moment here. He gave his big state of the nation speech yesterday, really focused on crimea as the homeland of the russian nation. I worry that theres a bigger chance now that he makes a more assertive military move into beyond the don bass region in ukraine. He does that to distract from Everything Else going on . Yeah. Right now hes in distraction mode. His numbers are still very high, andrew. But that he doesnt have a mechanism now to manage the ruble directly. Because all the pressure is going down, he doesnt want inflation, hes not willing to come up with a strategy. What he said yesterday in the state of the nation speech, there was no strategy there at all on real quick before we go, if you were to be his adviser, you would tell him to do what . I would say right now you have to spend some money in trying to minimize the downward pressure on the ruble and the Silver Lining for you is that things are even worse for the ukrainians. And so you dont have to push as hard as youve been pushing. Fair enough. David, appreciate it very much this morning. Thank you. Thank you. Coming up, Guggenheim Partners as a Global Investment power player. 220 billion under management. And the chief Investment Officer scott minerd will tell us how theyre putting that money to work and what he calls the dark side of falling oil prices. Bre. And. Exhale. Aflac and a gentle wavelike motion. Ahhhahhhhhh. Liberate your spine. Ahhhahhhhhh. Aflac and reach, toes blossoming. Not that great at yoga. Yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. Ahh four days . Yep. See why speed matters, at aflac. Com. Theres a french fry shortage in japan. Restaurants there are rushing to secure fry supplies after a dock workers dispute on the west coast caused a monthlong slowdown. The operator of restaurant chain gusto plans to fly in 200 tons of french fries. Japan is already facing a butter shortage after a heat wave in the summer stifled dairy output. Thats weird. It seems like potatoes are not that hard to come by. Also seems like in japan they wouldnt care that much if they didnt get french fries. But once youre introduced to them you love them . I call them freedom fries. But everybody cares about them. I always think of them as being a healthier society. A lot of fish. It is an island sort of, right . Lot of seafood there. When we come back this morning, if you need to job look to the sky. Our ongoing series where the jobs are is next. Stick around. Squawk box will be right back. Are all the green lights you . No. Its called grid iq. The 4 51 is leaving at 4 51. They cut the power. Itll fix itself. Powers back on. Quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. Thrillingly predictable. Oh and could you turn on air conditioning im starting to sweat. Ill just do it myself. Useless. Thats nice. Sets the mood. Have your entire house within reach, even when your devices arent. Introducing relay by wink its like a robot butler, but not as awkward. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Jpmorgan keeping the title top ranked Investment Bank during the first three quarters of the year. Its now raked in 17 billion in revenue so far. Goldman sachs taking the second spot. Also canada giving the green light to burger kings purchase of tim hortons after that inversion deal closes. I dont know if we want to call it an inversion. On the line there. The new company will be based north of the board e. And apple trying to get a Digital Music lawsuit dismissed. The new evidence shows two of the plaintiffs didnt purchase ipod models covered by this large class action lawsuit. A wave of retirements would royal the skies in this installment of where the jobs are, we look how generational shift is creating new demand for air Traffic Controllers. Were joined from long island with more. Mary . Im inside the colleges simulator. Youre seeing a replica of vancouver airport. Its here the students train, they learn how to assist the planes to take off and land at the three runways. Over the next decade the faa needs to hire 10,000 new air Traffic Controllers. The people charged with monitoring more than 87,000 flights that take off and land in the United States every day. The skies may be friendly, but theres a constant need for people who keep the order. Air Traffic Controllers. They have to be hired before their 31st birthday. Theyre required to retire at the age of 56. Gayle runs the program at middle Tennessee State university. She says demand is strong because sequestration curtailed hiring last year and because a lot of the over 14,000 controllers that work today were hired after thousands were fired in 1981. This is a professor at dowling aviation college. Theres going to be a large number of controllers leaving by their 56th birthday. So the faa needs to hire over 1700 new controllers next year. And almost 6400 in the next five. Accepted applicants will go through the faas formal Training Program followed by a couple years of on the job training. Once certified they can earn six figures. It used to be that if you were top graduate at one of these programs you were pretty much assured a slot in the faas air Traffic Controller training pra m. But that changed this year. The faa opening up the admissions process to the general public. It declined to answer any emails or questions about whether or not this has yielded them a better crop of candidates, but the students here of course continue with their studies hoping it will give them a leg up in getting into the air Traffic ControllerTraining Program. Becky, back to you. I didnt realize the stringent requirements. You have to be hired by the age of 31 . Thats right. You have to start the program that takes place in oklahoma city. They have an academy there, the faa. And you have to be 31 by the time you start that program. If youre 32, youre out basically. And 56, thats when you leave. You have to leave by 56. But, again, retirement age starts at 50 so you do have this turnover of all these experienced controllers. And you need them there because you need them to help train the new ones coming on as well. Wow. All right. Mary, thank you so much. Great seeing you. Sure. Partners announcing a triple play this morning. Mutual funds getting flagged by morning star for the first time. Also guggenheim has been outperforms their peers over the past three years. With us now scott minerd, hes global cio at guggenheim. Overseaing roughly 20 billion in assets. I like to think of this segment here as a sort of continuing segment on the differing opinions about what oil prices do to the world at 60. And i like your analysis which looks at some of the negatives. And just to summarize, it puts pressure on countries like russia. Right. That makes it harder for europe to recover. Makes it harder for our multinationals. Right. So eventually we might look like our equity markets have had their run based on Lower Oil Prices. I think so, joe. I think that as Oil Prices Continue to put pressure on prices in europe and the deflationary pressures mount, were going to have to see the euro continue to depreciate. And as i remind people, even if mcdonalds sells as many hamburgers in paris next year as they did last year and the margins stay the same, the translation game is going to put pressure on s p earnings. So i think by the time we get into the First Quarter, perhaps maybe it will take until the Second Quarter before we start to see the data, people are going to start to realize that theres pressure on multinational earnings, s p 500 earnings could stall out here. And maybe even go into reverse. And i dont think thats something that the market do you also acknowledge that theres been a nice supply component that is positive. But youre saying that the demand isnt keeping up with it. Its not necessarily the growth is slowing, but the demand isnt keeping up. And this could be selffulfilling in terms of growth slowing over in europe. Exactly. When you look at estimates on demand for next year, most people are expecting that oil demand will actually fall by about a Million Barrels a day. Mostly as a result of efficiencies weve built into the system. Then when you look at the United States, fracking activity is still going on. Typically the average cost of a new well in fracking is somewhere between 45 and 50. So there is no incentive to reduce the increase in supply. So in a world where you sort of have inelastic demand for energy, most people dont change that place on price. You also dont think that draghi is going to be able to do whats necessary to stop this. I dont think so. Why . Is it because germany just we were talking about that earlier. Theyre not comfortable printing money, are they . They never will be ever again. Well, the republic sticks in their mind. It does. And theyre a country that theyre doing pretty well. They dont care if everybody else does. Thats whats so screwed up about these multispeed economies all under one umbrella. It doesnt work, does it . For the germans, this is even more about imposing discipline on the rest of europe. So, you know, their view is if they take a little bit of pain, this is good for the European Union because itll impose discipline on the peripheral countries. But its sunny and nice down there. Its not germany, right . Theyre all working on their porsches and everything. But there are places its nice to be on the ol live fields. And the other thing people have mifs in the story is despite the fact they havent made progress on structural reform and neither have we by the way. But we started going down the entitlement state path but we didnt get as far as they got. But we made some good progress. And were seeing what happens to gdp when we do that too. In the long run, thatll be an interesting thing for us. But unit labor costs are going down. Spain is becoming more competitive. Italy is becoming more competitive. With a devalued euro and time, italy is a manufacturing company. Theyll pick up some speed. But for the near term, given the preoccupation with prices and the downward pressure, draghi has a gun to his head to find a way to increase the balance sheed. And he doesnt have enough assets to buy. You look other there on all the 10year stuff in those country . Theyre amazing. Theyre like half of what they are and you wonder why money is coming in here. 2. 3 doesnt sound great, but its better than 1. Im not going to say exactly where they are. Germanys at 70. 70 basis points, but italy and spain are down. Spain yields less than 2 far 10year note. Anybody who says they think the markets here are going to have a tough time, how do you match that up when you look at whats happening overseas . Look, in the near term i think were living through the shortterm affect of what is like a tax cut with the decline in gas prices. We have strong seasonals in the market right now given all the pension money thats getting invested. And the 401 k money starts coming back. For the near term i think equities are moving higher and going to do well. But by the time we get into the first or Second Quarter of next year and we start to see the dark side of all of this, i think people are going to start to question whether this really is, you know, sustainable and add into that, becky, something that a lot of people are not focused on is the collapse of the polar vortex. You know, the unseasonably cold winters of last year and the beginning of this year is looking pretty cold. If you remember, we actually had a contraction in gdp in the First Quarter last year. If we were to get another weak First Quarter, people could Start Talking about recession and that sort of thing. That would certainly do some damage to the equity markets. How are the dodgers going to do next year . Win the world series. Really . That easy. Wow. All right. What happened this year . How many games do you go to . I probably get to about 30. 30 games. Beautiful park. Did you go to as many games before . No. But when thing i will tell you, the difference between today and going before is and i realized this the first time. Better seats. Well, theyre much better seats, but its like going to work. You know, the fans and the employees know you and you spend time with them. Cy young and mvp . Yes. Pretty impressive. The last time that happened . Dont ask me. Doesnt mean its not fun though, right . Its fun. What a great venue to watch. Its nice. Come on out and join me at a game. Wait a second. Really . Yeah. These guys are living the dream out there. Their offices are right over the water. Then they go to the ball game when the days over. He spends a little time at the gym. Its great. Andrew makes my life sound like its a vacation. It sounds wonderful. Hes getting to where youre some sort of entitled one percenter. No, no, no. I would like to live that life. I think going to the game and hanging out at the beach part of the bitterness that comes out . No. This is not envy. I envy what youre doing but not in that way. I think andrew should work for me for awhile and see if he feels that way. He could be a tough boss, i think. I dont think you could take him. Coming up, disneys big run. The stock is up more than 10 since june. And the company just announcing a dividend hike of 34 . Were going to talk to an analyst about the prospects for the house of mouse. But first, Morgan Brennan has an update on Dairy Farmers. Hey, andrew. This is anessa. She produces 120 pounds of milk a day. Shes what you call a cash cow. Weve got milk a the break. Location. Location. shouting location. Heres the location that matters the most. Here. Or here. Or here. Its wherever this is. To get customers to come here and stay here, youre going to need an app that connects to all your systems. So they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. Before the competition does. Its tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Welcome back, everybody. A record year for Dairy Farmers thanks to the combination of high prices and record low feed costs. Morgan brennan joining us now. Here in wisconsin its what farmers are calling a perfect storm. Its record high prices coupled with those record low feed costs. And that has led to prices of allergy from raw milk to butter to cheese to hit fresh highs this year as production has slowed in every major milk producing region in the world except the u. S. Now, that pushed dairy exports to their highest value ever in the first half of the year, but still not enough to meet demand. So here at Mystic Valley farm dairy, 400 cows produce nearly 4,200 gallons of milk each day. And thats a much needed windfall after several tough years. Its allowed us to sort of do some maintenance and updating on some of our equipment that maybe didnt get to be updated when the prices werent as good. Were going to have some money stored so we can work off of that and not have to go back in debt. Thats really important, because prices are already starting to come off significantly for 2015. Its a class three, class four milk futures dropping around 16. Thats a big drop from the recent peak of 24. So all of the milk of this farm goes to a cheese manufacturer. And ultimately ends up on your pizzas in new york city. A fun fact for you. If wisconsin were a country, it would be the fourth largest cheese producer in the world. Bigger than italy. Guys, back to you. I know its early, but have you had any milk this morning . Any cheese . I have not this morning, but we got here yesterday and i have to tell you ive been going crazy on the dairy. Especially the fried cheese curds. Enjoy it while youre there. Thank you. When we return, for the first time in more than a decade, barbie has been dethroned. Elsa now officially from disneys frozen taking the number one spot on the wish list for girls. Disneys stock up more than 22 today. We will talk to a disney analyst when squawk box returns. Welcome back to squawk box. Disney is on a tear. That stock up more than 30 over the year. And the Company Giving some of that money back to shareholders. All that plus the frozen doll elsa unseating barbie for the first time as the top toy of this Holiday Season. Joining us is tony wibal who covers disney. Joseph, why were you giving me a look of no reason. Nailed it. He told me if i memorized it, it will sound right. Even though the stocks on a tear, youre cautious on this stock. Yeah. Weve been saying the cost of programming is one of these things youve got to keep a bike eye on. I think the corner is missing this massive step. Our numbers are actually lower in the quarter. But the streets missing the fact theres an extra week in the fiscal year. Do you see this as a longterm issue or just the next quarter . Disneys good. The bet this year is on advertising. Disneys your low beta bet right now. Thats why its outperforming and you have viacom on the downside. Thats a reflection of the issues in the overall ecosystem. Youre seeing this go with this dish and cbs dispute. How do you see that sort of playing out . Everything has its roots back in netflix. At the end of the day youre having tv viewership slipping to where it can no longer cover production. Rerun programming are done. Youve got to invest a lot. Nfl rights skoi rocketing. And so you cant afford that with just advertising and you have to get affiliate fees. But they cant keep paying a 10 increase in fees when theres so many competitive things out there. Content needs to go from point a to point b. We think happens is fragmentation. I think theres going to be a group of people who will pick a bundle of content. And is it those people who are they never bought the package. Are they people who are going to cancel their package and say im going to take this new cbs over the top. Im going to buy hbo to go and netflix and create my own bundle . Or theyre going to be or Cable Companies or somebody else are going to start bundling this for you. I dont think im going to want to buy cbs, hbo, netflix separate. Its complicated. Thats a fragmented world. You have those options. Certain people will want to have everything. And actually getting a cable of satellite package is the most efficient way to get everything. But for certain people, they might be fine with just a netflix and an hbo. I think about the tv ecosystem being held together with really kind of three pillars. Sports, hbo, and broadcast. Two of these three are talking about being able to go direct. Thats a threat to the ecosystem. They also dont think theres a coincidence this centers around cbs. Its a longer conversation. So come on back. When we come back this morning, the wait is almost over. The november jobs report is 30 minutes away. Our panel is ready for instant analysis. Dont go anywhere. Jobs friday is on squawk box. Thats coming up in just a moment. Youre driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pickup truck slams into your brand new car. One second it wasnt there and the next second. Boom youve had your first accident. Now you have to make your first claim. So you talk to your Insurance Company and. Boom youre blindsided for a second time. They wont give you enough money to replace your brand new car. Dont those people know youre already shaken up . Liberty mutuals new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. Call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch to Liberty Mutual insurance and you could save up to 423 dollars. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. For that moment, where right place meets right time. And when i find it i go for it. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so youre always connected, wherever you are. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. The countdown is on. Its the final countdown nine straight months of job growth on the line. The longest stretch since 1995. Nine times. Our jobs panel is here to help guide us through the numbers. Their assessment of the labor market and what it says about the state of the economy is just ahead. Will the numbers sway the feds policy. How is the drop in oil prices affecting job growth, the consumer, and other areas of the economy . And what should you be doing about your investments as we head into the final weeks of 2014 . Were going to break it down, get you the numbers, and instant reaction as a special hour of squawk box jobs report friday begins right now. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im joe kernen. And youre looking at me. Oh, no. You are looking live at the Labor Department in washington. You see someone just walked in front of that. If you were wondering what time it was, that is the time. Exactly right now unless were on a delay. Were less than 30 minutes going to get the employment report. Our jobs panel is ready to go as we do on every first friday unless its some weird calendar event. Usually its the first friday of every month and were looking at whether the jobs report is going to signal that were breaking out of the sort of economic slowness weve been in for years. The other Big Development this morning that you saw live here this morning, the launch of orion, the experimental spacecraft thats going to orbit the earth twice. And travel 3600 miles into spate. Then they want a fast reentry to see if it can withstand the friction of the atmosphere. And land in the Pacific Ocean in about three hours from now. It was an amazing sight to watch. We watched to where the boosters broke off. They have a gopro mounted to the top of the rocket maybe not a gopro. It showed the launcher being tossed off. It probably wasnt gopro, maybe it was. Nasa is hoping one day this ship will carry a crew to mars. Although orion is a nasa project, a development has been contracted out to Lockheed Martin. Among the other stories on our radar morning, cbs still on dish network this morning. The two sides failing to reach a deal by last nights deadline but the network says it will continue to be distributed by dish while those negotiations continue. Also president obama is going to be announcing his nominee for new secretary of defense today. Its expecting to be ashton carter. And uber now valued at more than 40 billion. It is official. Its reportedly in talks to sell more than a billion dollars in convertible debt. This coming just after the Ride Sharing Service raised 1. 2 billion in its latest funding round. Six months ago it was worth 18 billion. We will see where this ends. We are less than 30 minutes from the jobs report. Less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. Weve been watching the futures this morning and there are some green arrows. Dow futures up by about 28 points above fair value. S p futures up by two and a half. And the nasdaq up by seven points. This comes after a slight decline yesterday. If youve been checking out what happened in europe. We have seen green arrows in europe this morning. The cac and the dax up. Ftse up by. 8 . This comes after draghis comments yesterday that pushed up the euro briefly. Its down once again this morning. Its sitting around a fiveyear low. And a couple of stocks to watch this morning. Lets start with American Eagle outfitters. It is warning that holiday earnings will fall short of estimates. The teen retailer says that weak mall traffic and online competition is hurting its sales. Gap posted better than expected samestore sales. The big driver was old navy. The retailer recently lowered its earnings guidance. And discount retailer five below offered a disappointing outlook. The Company Also Named a new ceo. Lets get to our jobs panel. Were going to have predictions in just a minute, but right now we want to focus on the economy, the labor market, and the fed. Austan goolsbee is from university of Chicago School of business. I just like to remind him to be aware of Milton Friedmans legacy. I should have done this every time hes on. Never seems to help that much. Kevin hasett is a senior fellow and director of economic policies at a play where they value enterprise and entrepreneurial spirit. The American Enterprise institute. Hey, mark. Mark zandi is almost like the pope in terms of infallibility on his adp numbers. You go, guy. Thank you, joe. Yeah. Amazing. And gary stern is former minneapolis fed president. Welcome one and all. Its easiest for me, austin, just to go left to right and start with you. We were at the business round table, i dont know if you got to see that. These guys are like you. Theyre still the best word we got out of them was okay on the economy. And for 2015, for the year theyre talking 2. 3 , 2. 4 . Were counting on 3 . Where are you . You an the fed, no. I think were less than 3 . I still think were going to get some boost from the from Lower Oil Prices or smaller than people want. And i think europe, they can have as many green arrows they want today, theyre going to be shot by those green arrows by the end of the year. I think europe is a huge cloud over the whole world economy. So that must be what youre keen on then, austan. I thought that would give a little it doesnt take a lot i think it will give us a little boost, i just dont think it will be that much of a boost. Now were a big oil producer. Were going to get a consumption boost but probably an investment hit. Because nobody wants to invest in new oil field machinery. One more question then weve got to go, but what happened . Are we not a 4 economy ever again . We cant even get to 3 . Is something fundamentally different about us now we cant look forward to nothose solid ds every again . I dont think it is ever again. Though 4 was never sustainable. But over 3 is achievable, its just going to be awhile. We cant go back to what was driving the bubble and that takes some time. All right. Kevin, what do you think of all this . All this conjecture. Is it a different place now . Is the world different because the globalization that its just too hard for us to do that now . No, i dont think so at all. I think that basically four of the last five quarters have been pretty good. The reason were coming into the low twos is we had that fourth quarter. I think its going to be pretty well. There were observations in a row above 3 except for the bad one. I think that the economy has mostly healed since the financial crisis. And a lot of the stuff holding us back after the financial crisis has more or less been healed. The longterm unemployment problem is Getting Better. Thats a very positive sign for next year. And now to someone that friedman gives a rash. Mark zandi, do you have an 800 billion stimulus in your back pocket we can do again to get this economy finally moving . That had its day, thats why were doing so well at this point. Exactly. Id agree with that. That is why were doing so well right now. We dont need any more stimulus. That is what we needed in 2009. We got it. Thank goodness. And it was very helpful for the economy. Do you think the president has some actual shovel ready stuff ready now . Or it would be like the shovel ready stuff we had ready back then . Can we really do infrastructure now . I think democrats and republicans have a lot of shovel ready projects. I think infrastructure in this country is wholly inadequate. I could take a map of the United States, close my eyes, put my finger anywhere and find a project within a few miles of my finger that has a higher return than the 10year treasury yield. But it would be in a state that maybe should take care of itself and that the federal government is just too far away from to really be the person or the entity that does it. Fair enough. But the federal government is a huge player in infrastructure. Always has been, always will be. So we need the federal government engaged if theyre going to get good rail, good airports, good everything. And i think its bipartisan, right . I dont think thats a democratic issue. Its a democratic and republican issue. But there are totally different ways to approach it. We have the people on and they dont get they have theyre not together on this at all how to do infrastructure. Thats true. Mark, if you want to do infrastructure right, just auction it off. Let the private sector run it. Why not sell the airports, sell the interstate highway system and let some private vendor keep it up. It would be way better than what we got . I think we should let a thousand flowers bloom, right . Because we have many flowers we need and we should try everything and theres many ways of doing this. We should try all of them. Some will work and some wont work. Joe, let me just say, were in a 3 world and i disagree. We are going to 4 because the missing ingredient in all of this is housing. At some Point Housing will kick in because the level of construction is way too low. We have a minute. And gary made it all the way in here in studio. Then they put him on the far right side of the four boxes so hes had to sit around. Ive been informed. Now you know what to say after listening to this. Im pretty optimistic. I think the economy in the near term can grow 3 or better. Longser term, the key is going to turn out to be productivity. Im surprised nobody has mentioned it. Productivity recently has been disappointing. But i dont see anything in the fundamentals that suggests thats going to persist. In fact, i suspect that whats happening to productivity is to some extent its being depressed by responses to regulation. Theres been a lot of hiring, but its in areas like compliance and audit and Risk Management which is very appropriate under the circumstances. But where its hard to measure the output of value added to these activities. When we get beyond some of this, i would expect productivity is going to do better and the longterm performance to the economy will be better as well. Austan was bristling when he thought you were throwing down. But then he said it was appropriate. You okay now . He then brought it back. Yeah. Look, the last productivity number was actually pretty decent. I think hes 100 right that productivity will come back, that were not in an era of stagnation thats going to last forever. But the i was getting my dander up if it was going to be attributed to the government policy, because i think youve seen that same thing in all the advanced countries of the world. Everybodys following a different policy. You always come up with that. And has the advantage of being correct. Hes always got that. Never obamacare or regulation or high corporate taxes. Its always that the whole world did and theres no regulation in those other countries. You would have nothing. Yeah. And if i had a full head of hair then i wouldnt be bald. Those are the facts. I think thats part of the problem here. Youre still you know, i cant help it that i have great hair. Dont get mad about it. Anyway, we will have more from our panel in just a little bit. Austan was not taking the bait as much today . I kept trying and trying. Smooth. Why would he . Because then it sort of lowers himself to my level which he doesnt want to do. Right . Thats why i got more time. Its not over. When we return, price wars at the pump. How low will fuel prices go . A game of cat and mouse when it comes to your wallet. Squawk box on this very special jobs friday. Were going to return in just a moment. Before they earned enough cash back from bank of america to help spread some holiday cheer. Before earning 1 cash back everywhere, every time; and 2 back at the grocery store. Thank you even before they got 3 back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through, a couple was inspired to use their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to throw the ultimate Ugly Sweater Party of the season. Thats the spirit of rewarding connections. Apply online or at a bank of america near you. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around 329 a month. Im just looking over the company bills. Up . Is that what we pay for internet . Yup. Dsl is about 90 bucks a month. Thats funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. Wow thats fast. Personally, i prefer a slow internet. There is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. Dont listen to the naysayer. Switch to comcast Business Today and get 50 megabits per second for 89. 95. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Take a look at futures, see how the market is setting itself up ahead of the job numbers. Dow jones looks it would open 32 points higher. Nasdaq up a little over seven points. All that could change at 8 30 when we do get those job numbers. And keep an eye on tyson foods. Goldman sachs adding to the conviction buy list. Arguing that the poultry producers value is underappreciated especially in light of its recent acquisition. And gas prices just keep plunging. Yesterday we showed you that some cities are already seeing prices dip below 2 a gallon. Thats an about face from when we started the year. The National Average at the beginning of 2014 was 3. 30 a gallon. Today the average, 2. 72. And those lower prices are sparking gas wars on the highway. Lets talk more about the low price battle. Patrick is gas buddy. Coms Senior Petroleum analyst. Good morning to you. Good morning. Help us understand where gas prices are going. Even between now and the holidays at this point. You will see the downward direction continue. Certainly more motorists will be gaining access to sub sub2dollargallon gas. It could show up here in the next couple weeks in texas, south carolina, missouri. The low price, low tax states have the opportunity to see some stations under 2. I know theres a lot of anxious folks out there who think the average prices will get that low. But not quite yet. But it remains good news for folks filling up. And in terms of states where youre not going to see gas prices go down as much, what should you expect there . Opposite there. High gas tax states are probably not going to see it. California, connecticut, hawaii, alaska. Anywhere where gas taxes tend to be far higher, areas of big cities, chicago, new york, l. A. Not going to see near those prices. Here in chicago we see prices well above 3. San francisco, new york citys getting close to seeing their average. Explain the rest of it. Who is capturing that margin then . Well, its not even the margin we have to talk about differentials in spot prices between the gulf coast, the west coast. Obviously proximity. Location, location, location. Being in oklahoma, close to curbing, gulf coast refineries, infrastructure. You talk about new york and of course theyre trying to get access to canadian crude but the price is going toob higher. So its all about where you are. Were just talking about the next couple weeks. Look at it a little farther. What do you think it really looks like . It looks like a much better year for motorists. We could see the National Average lingering under 3 a gallon likely through march or april. Thats when well likely see the 3 surge come back. Keep in mind 2015 will not see the high prices that we saw in 2015. The yearly average this year set to close out somewhere in the high 3. 30s. 2015 could see even a lower yearly average perhaps in the three teens or three twenties. How far will it go . Thats going to set the tone for 2015. Do we know are consumers changing their behavior in terms of how they actually act at the gas station . Meaning, there have been studies that have been done about when gas costs a lot, people dont fill up their tank. Theyll go half way. What are we seeing now . Well, were likely seeing fewer trips to the gas station. Price is coming down. Folk who is are putting in a set 10, 20 amount are getting more bang for their buck. So thats the loss here for gas stations is folks are making less stops at the gas station because they can afford to put more in their tank at the same time. So gas stations trying to do a better job of bringing the customers in because theyre going to be visiting less frequently as prices come down. And you can speak to this. The real money at a gas station isnt actually the gas. Oh, sure. Absolutely. Although right now at some stations, not the 1. 99 station, but some stations it certainly is the gas. Profit margins at some stations still very healthy at 30 cents a gallon as they pass the discounts on a bit slower. But most of the money still coming inside the station. Okay. Were going to thank our guest this morning. Patrick, thank you for being on this morning. Thanks for having me. Up next, well get some final predictions from our expert panel. And the most important thing investors need to watch when the numbers do hit, here are the futures at this point. Which have been up most of their day. Up about 39 points on the dow. Up four on the s p. And up 11 now to the tones of alford and the brass. I see jim sounds like dating game. Remember jim what was his name . Twhat do i do . You need to catch the 4 10 huh . The Equipment Tracking system will get you to the loading dock. There should be a truck leaving now. I got it. Now jump off the bridge. What . In 3. 2. 1. Are you kidding me . Go. Right on time. Right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. We call that predictable. Thrillingly predictable. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Welcome back to squawk box. Shares of starbucks tasting very good to investors right about now. The stock trading near an alltime high. Coffee giant unveiling a fiveyear growth plan. Plans plans to add stores, alcoholic beverages, mobile ordering, and doubling revenue. Ceo Howard Shultz is going to be on closing bell this afternoon. Youre not going to want to miss that. We are just a few minutes from the widely watched november jobs numbers. It is now time to play predict the payrolls with our panel. Everyones got their prediction sticks ready to go. Our theme is a Holiday Season one. Its all about ugly christmas sweaters. Kevin, were starting with you. Whats your prediction . Im coming in at 212 because i think the retail employment isnt going to go up as much because everybodys buying from amazon and exports arent hiring. Austan . At the university of chicago here where we come to hear the whispers of friedmans ghost. He says joe doesnt know what hes talking about, but hes saying 222. Mark, how about you . 220. Thats not just to undercut austan. Let me say this. I think the odds are unusually high that we could get a hot number, a number that is higher than expectations. A lot of Little Things coming together suggests a better number than whats being anticipated. Rick, your call. 230. 230. 230,000. And i picked it for a very easy run. The seasonally adjusted numbers are losing their variance. Theres a whole story as to why the five and three year comps, the credit crisis, rating change are gone. So 230 and were going to compress in this area. Steve, youre high high mand right now. Rick is high. I got 211. Thats just for the private sector. I dont know how to predict the government spending, government hiring. And ive got an error rate of plus 33. Im the optimist so far. 240,000. Looks to me like hiring has been faifrl. Joe, whats your number . I went out to 90 places on pie and its 3. 14159653593238 dlsh youre not going to let me finish . No. Im the pessimist today. S 200 k, and rurew. I went out all the places. Did you do the math yourself . Stick around. Up next it is the november jobs report weve been waiting for. Well have the numbers and the instant reaction. How much money do you have in your pocket right now . I have 40, 21. Could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement . I dont think so. Well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. Welcome back to squawk box, everyone. We are just a few seconds away from the november jobs report. Weve been watching the futures ahead of that. At this point at least there are some green arrows. Dow up by 38 points. S p futures up by close to four points. And the nasdaq up close to 11 points. A lot of this is betting on what the jobs report is going to be. Expectations are from 220 to 230. But we were talking in the break, Steve Leisman said this one could be all over the map. Hampton pearson is standing by waiting to give us the numbers. Ill send it to you. 321,000. November nonfarm payrolls increased by 321,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 5. 8 . Average Hourly Earnings up 0. 4 . The 321,000 is the biggest monthly gain since january of 2012. That average hourly increase of. 4 is the biggest monthly hike since june of 2013. Private sector jobs in the month of november increased by 314,000. The revision, september revised uptowards 256 to 271. The net increase of 44,000 over those previous two months. Job gains widespread across the board leading the way. Professional and business services. That sector alone up 86,000 jobs in november. The biggest monthly gain there since november of 2010. The Labor Force ParticipationHolding Steady at 62. 8 . Job gains with the revisions now have averaged 278,000 for the last three months. 224,000 for the previous 12 months. Another interesting note in this particular set of data, the average work week in november was 34. 6 hours nap is the highest since may of 2008. And the socalled Unemployment Rate now stands at 11. 4 . A year ago it was 12. 7 . Lots to talk about, guys. That certainly is. Lets get reactions. Only one person had a three handle. But that was actually a three handle. Times ten to the second. 3. 14 you added that. That was there. You added it. I think you should have just gotten rid of the decimal point and added a comma, and you would have been in better shape. At least it says my work indicates and we all laugh. We dont all kind of laugh, you do. I kind of laugh. My work copying pi came closer. Austan goolsbee, mark zandi. Austan, come on. Thats a huge number. Good number. If we get three months of that in a row, i think people would absolutely completely change their tune. That is a really big number. You know, kevin, after i dont know what it was. I guess it was the worry about oil affecting some of our trading partners. Earlier this week, they said thats off the table now. Maybe its back on the table now, dont you think . Well, i still dont think so. I think the markets are going to be terrified of that. This is a humongous number and the upward revisions were fantastic. The economy is doing way barn we expected. We would have been closer to this if we had seen the revisions. But we were forecasting off of much lower numbers. How come the futures are weaker . Theyre worried the fed is going to tighten sooner. Zandi, what crappy formula you used for adp. What the hell happened this time . I told you it was going to be higher. Boom. Its a boom number. Its not jobs. Its average Hourly Earnings up. 4 . That means wage growth, if you look at it it is now accelerating. That is key to the economic outlook. The other key number is the weekly hours. Thats a new cyclical high. Its not only the jobs, its the hours and wages. Everything is moving into high gear now. And it feels more like a boom economy than even a strong one. You saw me write this down. How many private sector jobs, least man . 314. Im impressed. Thats your work. This is an important report. Some of it is probably seasonal. I have the sense that Holiday Hiring was earlier than usual, probably bigger. Some of that may come off in december because if you believe that some of the hiring would have otherwise occurred later. But it fits with what weve been seeing in the employment data. Ive been hearing by way of anecdotes by firms that follow various industries. It fits with the general tenor of the book. It fits with everything except with what we heard from ceos earlier this week. I think theyre the outliers. We had them come in yesterday and talk about a 5 economy. Im skeptical that trend job growth is quite this high. I would be saying the same thing if we came in at 150. That makes sense. Come on. We got to move the show across the pond at this point. What you have is i think the fed looks through this number one time. I think its on a short leash here. I dont think its going to believe that wage growth is running at a 0. 4 monthly clip. I dont think its going to believe that job growth trend is over 300,000. Note what happened. The reason is because two months in a row youve had half a million combined come back into the workforce. The unemployed rose actually by 115,000. So still looking at slack in the labor market. I dont think that when i look at this number i think garys right. There are seasonal issues here. A very light seasonal adjustment mark. The actual not seasonally adjusted number here which i will give you in just a second was, like, 400,000 or Something Like that. Steve, look up retail jobs and transportation. Thats where the couriers are. That would address garys point about seasonality. Retail total is 50,000. Okay. Thats pretty good. But the notion that the retailers are preparing for a good season, i dont know if you saw the council for Shopping Centers number running for the month of november. So thats a little bit and i dont know. Ian shepardson said the nrf number is not credible. That 11 decline. And we have some numbers coming out next week in the allamerica sur vie that are going to say this is going to be a rosy surface. You know how you square the circle about ceos . Theyre multinational corporations. So theyre theyve got the whole world in their vision. And the rest of the world is clearly struggling. If you have operations in europe, japan, china, asia. Youve got a different perspective on things. But if youre domesticicly oriented, those companies are doing well and feeling a lot better. So i think the ceos have a broader perspective. And thats coloring reviews on how the economy is going to go. Are you ready to say trend job growth is north . No the trend is still probably 225, 230, somewhere in there. But the key statistic here is those Hourly Earnings. Because this suggests that year over year Hourly Earnings is now well into the 2s headed towards the 3s. And that will jump start more consumer spending. That will support more housing activity. Thats the key to a stronger economy. It feels like were right there. I might put a note of caution on this. And that is with gdp growth being okay but relatively modest, this might be an indicator that our productivity numbers continue to just be in the basement. That basically all output growth has to come from hiring more people. In the short run, thats great. But in the long run, thats our problem. We have a former fed president sitting with us. Gary, if youre the fed and see these numbers whats that mean in expectation of raising rates next year . The fed is going to be pleased from these numbers. As far as raising rates, i think the fed has lots and lots of flexibility because inflation is so quiescent. I still expect theyll raise rates in the middle of the year for a couple of reasons. One is they havent been trying to talk us out of that date very hard if at all. Secondly, you cant wait until circumstances are absolutely perfect before you start to act. So you think about this and say clearly the situation is Getting Better from the Economic Performance point of view. Clearly theres a lot of concern and uncertainty in the market about when theyre going to get started. That you can put some of that behind you and so forth. So i think the fed has got flexibility, but i think midyear is still a good guess. Rick, talk about the market reaction. The first knee jerk reaction was that the futures came down. Now theyve bounced back again. How are traders figuring what this means . On the equities, youre right. The s p futures went negative for awhile. Theyre both close in levels. Heres the markets that arent at the same place they were before the number. The euro, the yen. You know, the yen doubled down on its losses. The euro was almost unchanged. Its now down a boat load. See, those are the lasting issues. And you know what . This is a wonderful number. I wish id even gone higher. How many years after the recession . This growth probably would have happened much sooner if we werent misallocating resources and regulations and higher costs based on things like health care. But were here. And what we used to do when the we had stogies and playing poker. It was check to the highest bidder. I think its absolutely crazy that with this type of job growth with the average Steve Leismans been pointing to that i said that it bugs them we dont have high inflation. But that would mean, you know, dont have your rates much higher than 1. 25 , 1. 5 . But to be where were at makes no sense at all. If they wait longer, theyll be blamed for hurting the economy and theyll skew statistics for another four generations. Thats the closest rick gets to sending them a thank you note that ive heard in a year. I would never send them a thank you note. They created a sixyear cure for a twoyear flu. Mark, i still have wage growth at 2. 11 . I want to get away from the semantics of this discussion that seems to in general talk about wage inflation. Thigh talk about wage pressure. We are so far away from wage pressure. We could be at 3 or 4 even on wage hikes and it still not create the impluls. The other thing is oil prices. You heard draghi talk about it yesterday. It means 0. 4 down on the inflation rate in europe. Its going to have an effect here on the headline at least with concern about what happened to the core. While the enflags rate clarifies itself and whether or not we have a still disinflationary impulse. Steve, when was the last time the United States had more than a last quarters of inflation . 1890 i rest my case. But when was the last time we had an eightyear Financial Recovery from financial crisis and global disinflation all over the place . This is the key point about the last time central bankers went nuts. Probably in the 30s. Wage growth is not inflationary unless its greater than productive plus inflation. Were not even close to that as steve points out. I thought that was discredited a whole time ago. Which is so much in conventional wisdom, theres no academic backing for it. There is none. But even if you buy wait. Even if you buy into it and a lot of people do buy into it and the fed seems to to a significant degree, then were not even close to that. At 2. 5 , we need to be at 3. 5 to 4 before it becomes an inflation issue. Were not there. I want to bring in brian belski. Brian, what do you think of these numbers . What would you be advising clients as a result . I think theyre great numbers. And it backs up what weve been saying in our year ahead for 2015 as u. S. Stocks continue to set the pace for the rest of the world. 2015 is going to see that transition back to fundamentals, back to common sense, and back to where good news is good news, and bad news is bad news. And clearly the fed is going to be this quote, unquote, data dependent. But with this type of number you cannot refute the strength of the u. S. Economy. And we have to get more comfortable on that fundamental train. What did you think of the knee jerk reaction where the futures dropped down on this strong number . I thought we were in the point where good news is good news. No. No. I mean, you know, we published our report on monday morning early and weve been marketing all over toronto and new york. The bottom line is people remain very reactive, becky, very shortterm focus especially given the fact that the majority of Portfolio Managers are on the wrong side of a trade. So i think as we kind of continue to accept the full trend, becky, i think were still in the midst of a 20year bull market. Were five and a half years in. And the more that the u. S. Economy continues to improve and we see this correlation trade between earnings, Interest Rates, the economy, the dollar. I think the more people are going to be comfortable with respect to owning u. S. Stocks. The most concerning thing i heard today was from jim paulsen. And as you know he was very positive for a long time. Rode the stock market higher as it was going along. But he is a little concerned about what happens next year. Looking for a flat year next year because weve risen so far. Because hes concerned about just how jup lent things are at this point. What do you say to somebody like that . With all due respect to jim, i love his work and weve known each other for a long time but he doesnt have the Great Fortune like we do to talk to all sets of clients all over the world all over the place. And what we know is that clients remain very reactive and doubting of this trend. We did not doubt we are going to see a much more volatile year in 2015 as the fed tries to tap dance around jobs and improving economy here in america. But a declining economy and emerging markets in europe and what impact that has on america, we think all that is noise. But youve seen how on a shortterm basis that people continue to react. As long as you see that type of reaction, thats going to create opportunities for those investors that are fundamental and look at the path and the trajectory of fundamentals in america. And that type of reaction is going to continue to lead those people to underperform. Thats why we remain steadfast with our bullish forecast. We think single digit returns are very likely for america. Leisman, is this it, tenyear off to the races . I dont know. Does it go back below i dont know. You have all this tremendous pressure from europe, joe. Keeping things down. I dont know you can get there. What do you think . Is this it . Is he gone . Ill tell you what. Its real easy, guys. 230 to 238 is kind of your neutral zone. Think star trek here. If we start to settle above 238, i think we can get all the way up to 260 by the end of the year. I dont think thats going to happen. I still think that if we dont break out of that range and we start to dip back below the 225 to 227 level, the draw towards the end of the year is going to be closer to 214, 215 which is still my call. But like i said, if we within the next two trading days close above 238, buckle up irene youre going to the moon. Dont think its going to happen, but thats what you want to watch. Okay. Folks, thank you. Thank you, everybody. Brian, austan, kevin, mark, gary. Well see you guys soon. Find out what you should be doing with your money. Well hear from jim cramer in just a bit on what the data and investors need to watch at that open. And a programming note, dont want to miss Rick Santelli on meet the press. Thats where hes going to be this sunday on nbc. Were back in a moment. You total your brand new car. Nobodys hurt,but there will still be pain. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do, drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had a Liberty Mutual new car replacement, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. New car replacement is just one of the features that come standard with a base Liberty Mutual policy. And for drivers with accident forgivness,rates wont go up due to your first accident. Learn more by calling switch to Liberty Mutual and you can save up to 423. For a free quote today,call Liberty Mutual insurance at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back to squawk box. Lets give you some of the highlights of the november report. On average the country has added 224,000 jobs each month for the last 12 months. This year alone we added 2. 65 million jobs. Average Hourly Earnings was an important number. Expected to be up 0. 2 but was up 0. 4 . One more bit of data this morning is trade. The big headline here, oil imports dropped to their lowest level in five years. Main reason the decline in Energy Prices down 19 cents today. Still to come, jim cramer on what investors need to take away from the jobs report. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise the ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Get the future of phone and the phones are free. Comcast business. Built for business. Lets get down to the new york stock exchange. Jim cramer joins us now. Good morning, jim. Good morning, how are you . Great. Even better now we have these great job numbers. Do you believe them and think the market will go on a tear from here . The market has done well without great job numbers. When you see super job numbers, this calls into question people on the fence about what the fed is going to do. I typically dismiss people who say stop worrying about the fed and let this catch fire. Now its caught fire. The debate will have more gravitas. Its been rallying because we expected a good number. This is baked in. We need to see something that says europes turning. Something that says china is turning if we are going to get lots of companies to participate. Otherwise this is not the kind of number that will ignite the market. The market is already ignited. You want to play the game called a close . Do you think today turned out to be a great day or not so much . You could have the market be flat and there will be whole groups. Financials have to fly here. They do. This is their time. Tenyear is doing exactly what the financials want. It will not be the time for some of the industrials. People say wait a second. Europe is not doing well. China is not doing well. I think you are going to see a shift, a big rotation. If we are at 5. 8 and get a couple more 300 pluses and still at zero, dont you think some people are finally going to say, oh, my god and we are going to have to go up faster than people thought or not . Yes. I have been waiting to be able to i would like to say no consistently. 300,000, i totally agree and say okay, i dont want to see the purchasing power of my savings eroded either. I am joining the camp that says if you dont think there is going to be a raise, there has to be a raise. I dont know when. This is very strong number. Its the kind of number that is too strong for some. Okay. Mr. Cramer, well see you in a couple of minutes. White house reaction to the jobs data. Jason furman will join us in a couple of minutes. [woman] can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . [girl] can it tell the doctor how long i have to wear this thing . [man] can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver . I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me. Zero heartburn prilosec otc. The number 1 doctorrecommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. [ inhales deeply ] [ sighs ] [ inhales ] [ male announcer ] at cvs health, we took a deep breath. [ inhales, exhales ] [ male announcer ] and made the decision to quit selling cigarettes in our cvs pharmacies. Now we invite smokers to quit, too, with our comprehensive program. We just want to help everyone, everywhere, breathe a little easier. Introducing cvs health. Because health is everything. Welcome back. Weve been watching the numbers after the jobs report. 321,000 jobs. Futures initially stumbled. Now they are back up. I dont have a high degree of confidence. I think we are too low. This is people thinking weve got to get moving on the rate increases. You needed to be a total blowout. Maybe we cant count on europe forever to keep us deflationary. We start at 5. 8, we should not be at zero. Interesting to watch gas prices today. Interesting statistic. Carl will talk about it in a moment. Have a great weekend, everybody. See you monday morning. Right now its time for squawk on the street. I got work to do i got a job baby i got work to do good friday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. 321,000, the november jobs number blowing away estimates. Biggest gain in almost three years. Futures did take a delayed bounce on that news. Bonds take a hit. Yields back above 2. 3. Big question is the fed now in a box. Our road map begins with the