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American airline shares up added to the s p at the end of the week. Well hear from ceo doug parker. Apple reportedly in talks with programmers about plans to launch Online Tv Service this fall. The end of an era, microsoft reportedly dropping the Internet Explorer brand. First up futures falling amid a slide in february housing results as the fed gets ready to kick off the meeting. Its the biggest miss on starts according to the spoke since 07. Holy cow. Hard to build a house in february. We were among the weakest countries in the world during the month of february. Its funny what the feds going to doen they look at february building homes fewer when we had half as many people in the country, household formation not good, rents going up. Its worrisome. Its worrisome. You cant lose housing. Housing punches above its weight as john stupmf would tell you. Looking past it . No. You dont need if they get rid of patient word its happening at a time i would like to see march data because ive got to tell you, february data indicates that you should be cutting rates, not raising them. Of course thats im not be facetious, if you had that data, and rates were 2 youd want to take them down to 1. 75. All of that said obviously weather. But this economy just is not going the way its supposed to because that number is so low, as to basically say you must have thought the country shut down. The country did not shut down. Yeah down 17 . Unbelievable. Your guess on tomorrow. They come up with a new word for patient. Main thing going for them gasoline. Yellen at this time last year said the spike in inflation would not be long lived. Theyve got gasoline back under 2 bucks, thats what makes retail and restaurants so great. Theyve got that. But this housing number is worst than the weather is the way i would put it. We remember the taper tantrum, what we called stocks reaction to bernanke back in the day. Now the patience panic. That is what were in for . Step back for a second and recognize that as powerful as we think the fed is and theres a great article in the papers how the Ripple Effect of dollar in the end the fed is looking at what we were. Theyll insert Something Else this data was not strong weve got to see more. Youre data dependent, youre looking at data. One of the things about the fed, a transparent fed, people feel like theyre sending the wrong direction. Theyre look agent dateing at data dataness uneven. Oil bowelo 43. Opec leaving their forecast for nonopec supply unchanged. They think later in the year we might get change in output. Im looking at the numbers, a very Good Oil Company announced a secondary, it shows you how these guys need cash flow 4. 5 million shares a very good company i was looking my guys rbn, who i use, they come out with an interesting report. Peripheral fields beginning to get shut down. The field in utah new field was there, theyre not drilling. Youre going to see at this Time Next Year not drilling issues are going to start making so our depletion is for real but its this Time Next Year. This First Quarter is breakout quarter for Oil Production in the country. Thats goppinging to hurt airlines. S p one of the greatest mutual funds. Take them out, they have allergan, perfect, what a great win, add american. Who knows what theyre up to next. They are really fantastic managers. Market weighted. American is going to be added to s p as of the close of trading march 20th. As jim says replacing allergan acquired by actavis. This morning, doug parker of american was asked about fuel prices and hedging. Take a listen. The falling fuel prices helps. Were seeing more of that benefit than most competitors because were not locked into higher prices. The fuel price this year versus last year at todays prices todays curves 4. 5 billion lower than what we paid last year. That certainly helps our earnings. Parker added if they had been in the s p last year they would have been the secondbest performer. I think behind southwest. Southwest has been terrific. Now, first of all, i love doug parker, hes a straight shooter. Second, think industry selling six times earnings because people felt jet fuel would go up mcnerney, no one can get enough planes. I think americans good. I like southwest more because it never had losses during the badness. Parker tells a great story. Youre doing fine i wouldnt sell it. Up 113 last year. I used to cover u. S. Air for the journal back in the day and buffett learned a tough lesson on u. S. Air. He said something around frankly new york airline is ever going to be a wonderful business. I wonder if thats now changed. I think its changed because there was a consolidation that no one ever thought could happen. Should these guys should united consin nenttinental be able to america . I dont think so. We dont have the competitive flow we used to have. So the Airline Business is fabulous. A lot of what buffett didnt like was rampant vor voracious competition. That day is over. The competition is over which is why you see full planes. It isnt like people are traveling like they didnt used to. Its like the railroads, you dont see a lot of people saying im taking norfolk, southern. No they split the country up. Split it up. Amazing what theyve done. Win for everybody but except flyers. Thats a different story. Meantime, apple this morning, reportedly planning to launch a Web Television service in the fall. Sources saying the tech giants in talks with programmers to offer a bundle of 25 channels including abc, fox. Comcast will not be part of the service, available on apple devices like apple tv. Calling it the skinny bundle. I read this. All right. Im going to be selfish. Are you kidding me . Youre not going to have nbc . Its a big network. Sunday night football. The report suggests this is not a done were not at the end of the chapter. Obviously if youre a Cable Company, this is what youve been most fearful of. But the Cable Companies are resourceful, dont want to wright them off. Channels, you get past channel x and theres 180 that youre watching summit hula cross. Look at that. Which is pretty good. Right. Great lacrosse team. I know guy likes dell barton. Everybody has their own channel. If i can cut out 397 channels and just get the ten i want i probably would pay more so i dont have to go through 397 channels to find better call saul. Apple tv perhaps the longest wait for a refresh of any product apples ever made right . Is this finally it . If they do this they always remember a great article about how they ruled the banks and banks were fearful. Apple pay, im installing at bar san miguel. Im working overtime to get that done. Dont worry, my bank will check for fraud. I think this is long awaited. What they touch is working. I had mark benioff on the watch people writing stuff for the watch, this not a watch. Its not a watch. It is a Health Device that masquerades as something that tells time. This apple tv is what we want because i want sunday night football. Youre not going to get me to subscribe, i have to have sunday night football. This is what Everybody Knows this is like when someone does a single in the old days of 45 you turn the other side over you didnt want it you but they didnt have thats an amazing metaphor the b side. Listen to that. Like, wow. It was really except sam kochkoch i couldnt think of anybody who did it. Pure cable place. Cable companies. In the end, the Cable Companies have not nine live but was like 437 lives. I work ford a Cable Company people said jim you look like your curry favor. Im wearing a green tie, cur rig favor. The kind of news that jack ma likes to hear alibaba a wall street upgrade. Well tell you about that in a little while. Creator of Google Wallet, what hes up to now when it comes to the world of mobile payments. Take a look the premark. Trying to get two days up in a row in march. Have not been able to do that yet. Havent had to days of the dollar up. With that premark looks weak. More squawk on the street from post 9 in a minute. You can find a new frontier. Theres nothing stopping you and a lot helping you. Technology thats with you always. This is our promise. Its never been better to wander because wherever you go, youll find us doing everything we can, so you can. Chinese ecommerce giant alibaba up graded from hold to buy, price target of 99. The Regulatory Risk surrounding counterfeit items appear to have subsided. We know what the stocks done. I big lockup. X out alibaba yahoos like minus 4. This is interestingly timed because i think that a lot of people feel the stocks been softened, so to speak, like they just shelled it and shelled it. Now you can land the troops my issue i dont like too many things going none china i dont understand. Chinese domestic seems weaker export seems weaker. Whatever they they want to dump here. The mccau number ridiculous. You dont want to be levered to china now though the marks up huge. Because of the jawboning from officials about stimulus. Geez, i think they dont want anything overheating now. And the stock can bounce a little but theres a lot of stock. Ive nerve seen this is happening wednesday, expiration, 337 million shares open for trade. If ma calls everybody and says dont sell you have i dont think theres a lot of risk here if you buy yahoo . I think you should be buying yahoo thinking back to the ipo, it was pricing and you lost interest quickly. Singles day. Singles day. Look theres no doubles day, no doublesingles day no triple whatever i play house of cards. But i do think that that was it. I mean it got come on you dont have multiple days of that kind of spin. And everyone went crazy. Went from 118 to 120. You think the ipo priced to have that quickly follow . You think the ipos ahead of singles day . You know what . Who knows . It really has, i didnt know i used to joke with david, david introduced plea to the concept of singles day, theoretical concept, jim, singles day. Well timed. It was. Fortuitous timing. Yes. Leave it at that right . Kind of wow that was good timing. Yes. It is something that would mark the end of an era for microsoft, the verge is reporting that the companys killing off the Internet Explorer brand and will use a new name for the upcoming browser successor, project spartan. Explorer will exist in some versions of windows 10 mainly enterprise compatibility. You dont think theyll make the number. I think whats at stake, can they do the 53 cents and i think thats going to be very hard for them to do. And i, you know i look at this product and, yes, they need to rebrand. Its not rebranding. Its not like rebanding lets say youre making alpo, you make alpo, new and improved two. Do we want to see a headline that said cramer compared to Internet Explorer to dog food . Theyre trying to get xbox make it its like when you go to campbell soup. They dont talk about microsoft is a downer name. They ought to come up with Something Else. You know they cant call it applesoft, but that would probably do better. Microapple. Pressure regarding for enexchange. You have to do more than talk the companytalk. They have to split the company up. Until then numbers have to come down across the street because its obvious if youre killing this off, its not because the product is doing real well. Interesting. Right on the alpo ive been using fresh sticks that dogs love the fresh sticks then dont want the chinese dog food. They know about chinese dog food. Isnt that something . I think if you asked any dog owner, they would probably say i dont give press the boo ya button. Cramers mad dash, count down to the opening bell. Dows had triple digit moves 6 of 7 sessions but for a total move of down 150 points. More squawk on the street in a minute. Grind virtually any kind of food waste into an unending source of electrical power for a city . When emerson takes up the challenge its never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. Emerson. Just about nine minutes till the bell on tuesday. Cramers mad dash ahead of the market open big call on by goldman on actavis. Goldman reinstates actavis with conviction buy. Talking 24 number in 2017 which puts the stock around here. I have Bret Saunders on roh tonight. The cloegingsing of the deal with allergan. They did a huge amount of stock, Equity Offering and its holding up. Brent saunders watch him tonight. I think hes extraordinary. Hes put together a growth pharma we dont have those. People feel its done with smoke and mirrors because of the inversion. Allergan was a great company. If he can monetize allergan the stocks going higher. Allergan expands the pipeline in different ways. Botox is a pipeline within a pop pipeline. Many offline uses that can be commercialized. Its the great miracle drug of the era when it comes to muscle relaxation. Works for migraines, different muscles people need relaxed. Studies galore and actavis will take advantage. People feel david pyott didnt do enough with botox. I thought he did tons. Or perhaps marketed in a way long term created perceptions that maybe fought against thats it. Thats it. What happened with botox, that it got a bad name, so to speak, being for brazilian supermodels. He used botox, even those hes 44 to show how great it is. Try makeup that can also do it. And mgm. We have land and buildings, great name for activist, aut to convert to reit for some of the stock, real estate value, 70 upside base. Fast money has the ceo. Caught up with mccau. This has the least mccau of the mccaus. I dont think this is a bad call at all. Comes a day after Morgan Stanley cut wynn arguing damage is more structural than thought. 50 decline, comemunists dont like the junkets. That country is dictatorship, people always think, if its capitalists, it cant be dictatorship. Thats wrong. Chinese decided were not going to let people gamble the way they used to. Its like the old day of come niche they dont want to show people who are rich. Only thing left buy expensive watches, apple watches. Suspicious of names heavily levered to mccau . Very much so. Stay away. Some of my favorite companies, steve wynn, an amazeing guy. Sheldon adelson, politically not talking about that but businessman fantastic. Tough to watch. You cant own them. Steve i have worshipped him from the day, philadelphia when my father said this is the Great American businessman, be like him. Hes still stuck with china. Big risks, not always they dont always pay off. No. Exactly right. Chinese were a wild card. Who thought theyd go this way . Opening bell in 5 30. Dont go away. Theres nothing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. So why pause to take a pill . And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . With cialis for daily use, you dont have to plan around either. Its the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. 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Just chatting with the ceo of Northrop Grumman on the podium. Lockheed martin amazing stocks, as people recognize the sequester didnt hurt them. A lot of overseas sales. This mans a remarkable remarkably friendly to shareholder ceo as lockheed martin. Ive tried to have him on the show. Candidly, they are shy. Shy. Camera shy. Theres a few of those. Thats okay. Meantime i dont foe if you knew this st. Paddys day, youve got the green tie on i have green socks on. One of the highest upward biases day of the year 90 upbardward bias since 2000. March 23rd, 80 . Now theres a great stat. Not sure what to do with it but that would show we would have a turn. I just you know ive got to tell you, i havent been to ive been to ireland, four five times. A lot of fun. Annual st. Patricks day meeting. Best performer in terms of gdp growth employment a country voting on a referendum for always sartyusterity. Look at joy of it. Greece should pay attention. Msarich rejecting a proposal from simon mall group. Believes the unsolicited 16 build under values the company. Approving new measures to defend against possible takeovers. None of this is ever clean, especially in the last year or two. No. Boy, Real Estate Investment trusts, such a big move and theyre so big, often overlooks the size. That would be a great deal for simon if they can get. They sent me three things today, how horrible, i love you, but its horrible. It a great deal for simon if they get this done. Period. End of story. S p at the top of the screen. See how much green there is on st. Patricks day. Thats why. Here at big bore Northrop Grummans retiring cfo jim pauler and nasdaq kelya services doing the honors. Another company for whom green is an important color. Exciting. Ive got to tell you, if we can break the streak because we have been this is a marks that worn a lot of people done in its own great way. Restaurants and retail have been good. Some biotech has been good. Cut numbers, cut numbers, and internationals, people are tired of cutting numbers particularly tech stocks. Wed like to see if youre if youre long, this is a key day because theyve got the fed tomorrow. Like to come in believing that maybe things get better get a little head of steam. You say Cable Companies have long lives. Yes. Comcast, time Warner Cablevision close to the bottom of the s p list this morning. It is jarring. I remember the news that came out, came out in the evening but apple, and jim cramer on twitter, i know why hes saying invest, dont trade. These things are long time coming. I know there was the leak we worked for comcast and the articles said that comcast somehow thinks it soured. I dont know anything about this. If you ask people they prefer not to have those our 472 channels. You know the channel that has the chamber of commerce of some meeting discuss the zoning board of committee of of neighborhood come on guys. Dsw, shoe business, doing okay, 5 gain. Great company. 35 beats by 7 cents and comps up 7. 6. 7 is gold number. If you have comps 6. 7, stocks take off. Designer shoe warehouse, doing a remarkable job. I thought if they didnt get the stock up someone would come after them. Thats a fun place to shop. Another comp in the six range, burlington. Look at that chart, amazing. Twoyear chart of burlington. Its like a cold weather play. Hasnt fallen below the 50day in ive got to go back to july of last year. Its been remarkable story. I remember the old burlington stores. It is when its cold its good. As you can tell from columbia sportsing good. The cold weather hurt the housing business it didnt hurt burlington stores. Interesting call on gm today. Morgan stanley i hate that call my Charitable Trust own temperatures that guy said short, sell that guy, Morgan Stanley, just by the way, for the 18th straight month running, what, 7 , the fastest pace in a year. That fellows a negative fellow. If you policed it Morgan Stanley resumed with under weight 28 target. Buyback for those shortterm focused, not longterm focused. I read it. Come on, man. Its not so bad. Really. I mean i think that calls going to be dead wrong. My Charitable Trust owns it. I think its going to be dead wrong. That company has a lot of things going for it most of all a turn in europe. I own gm i care about a turn in europe. The u. S. Is incredibly strong. Talking about that not only were european auto sales up 7, p. I. I. G. S up 10. Spain good. And Investor Confidence a miss on estimates highest level in 13 months. The combination of thinking patient is not going to removes and europe is stronger. Its making people feel maybe were maybe europes Getting Better enough that the dollar advance will be slower which is all that you need. You dont need the dollar to go down. You just need the advance to be not as rapid so people can hedge and do some things so theyre not torn asuner. Trillions of dollars in bonds issued by dollarbased bonds and thats my worry with petrobras. You need to see pressure taken off. The velocity in the move is too fast. This will be very good. Any corporate treasurer would agree with you. The last six weeks its like whack a mole. Oh, no realp mexican peso 15. 15. Its very tough. Very tough. Apple which we know crossed 130 not long ago. Thats almost a dollar gain of 1. 26 on the tv report. People get excited. Apple. Continual parade of kind of cool things. And i think that this is within you pick up the paper and say, that makes sense. But you say nbc, can they do it without nbc . I dont know the answer. We work for nbc. Oil, as we mentioned, fell below 43 earlier in the morning. Retail gas, retail gasoline that we buy at the pump down for nine straight days. Big piece in usa today, average could go back to 2. Bullish. From 2. 42. A year ago 3. 51. I saw that again. A lot of people are worried about what happens to oil. Take a look at deal a huge number of refinances the break even has been lowered. Do not fret the notion of the oil patch there is so much private equity that exxon wants to be in. You dont want to sweat the program. Its a couple of states its colorado, maybe the magellan put in a very big pipe. The big problems boxen, enen bakken crude, flammable, why everybodys worried about it. Looking at housing names today, obviously thats going to be tough, right . I mean got to be careful. Housing is case by case. Toll brothers has a tremendous pipeline very very very good city stuff thats doing quite well. Urban. Highend urban. Raising price, raising price. I dont want to sell the group on this. I worry about the economy. Theyve got to snap out of it. Micron, one of the worst performers as well. Cutting numbers. Rbsc cuts numbers. Anything pc is just insectsecular decline. Microns in your pc not enough flash. Under armour is that a new high on ua . Strong call. Strong call from fbr. When i spoke to kevin plank last week, this guy wants to take over the world, and hes succeeding. They have 135 Million People in map my fitness, you look at Weight Watchers its in trouble. Map my fitness, extraordinary, extraordinary product that people love fitbit they love and so what people do this is like under armours decided to become a tech company that also sells apparel. And they have highend apparel that does a lot of things that apparel doesnt do. Should nike be worried. If i were nike nike runs scared. Under armour wanted duran, which is great but they got stephen curry, who is lethal. I love the fact that kevin, currys much better. High on under armour is 78. 17, were basically there. I think that is a great stock and a great company. Kevin plank is amazing. Technologys extraordinary. With all of that dow down 90 points. Lets get over to bob pisani on the floor. A weak open dow one point off 100 points. Weve seen this a lot in the last several weeks. Housing starts one of the weakling. Down fractionally for major names. Look at lennar d. R. Horton pulte, Toll Brothers on the weak side. We had a horrible february Housing Starts number. I was the real estate reporter 20 year ago, i look at numbers carefully. 897,000, 14 below expectations. These expectations are wide range. They really missed it it. I dont know if they cant figure out the weather or not, what the analysts are doing. The reason im optimistic northeast 56 decline, midwest 37 decline. Theres where the bad weather United States. Clearly affects areas that had the worst. Heres the only reason im not willing to blame everything on bad weather. Look at permit numbers because permits dont require construction. They file for something. Theoretically we should be doing better. Permits up 3 . Gain in multifamily, up 19 , Single Family down 6 . Its kind of hard to decide here. I want to say permits indicate well have a good spring. But its very split here. So id say we need another month of data to determine any downturn. But its very clear, a long string of disappointing economic numbers. This is not just the first economic number thats been disappointing. Industrial production in february capacity utilization, Housing Market index, retail fed surveys all misses expectations. The only one that has been not disappointing, nonfarm payroll services. Nonfarm payroll ises the most important thing weep have very good reasons to suggest the fomc may remove patient word but not going to stop being patient on this data. Thats my point. I think shes going to manage expectations for a very very slow rate hike im feeling september is more likely than june. Right now Energy Stocks weak. Take a look at names. New lows on the west texas intermediate. Big names are down fractionally. I thought yesterday with new lows on energy encouraging, not only didnt drop but up fractionally. This started the same way yesterday. Energy down fractionally and ended up fractionally. Were doing this again today. Watch this carefully here. It does look like energys not quite dropping as much as the underlying commodity here. Meantime you heard about American Airlines the airlines on the upside going into the s p 500, understandably. American is the big gainer in the airline groups. All of the rest jetblue, united delta, southwest on the upside. Europe weve been lower all morning. The Investor Confidence index in determineny, weaker. Its up 5 on the month overall, constant currency. France nearly also on the upside. Down right now. The shanghai composite, little engine that could keeps going up and up. Almost another 2 gain. 1. 6 there. No big news but clear implication, i hope you heard the premier yesterday saying they would continue to use stimulus if it needed to. They had many other tools at their disposal sounding very much like mario draghi saying whatever its going to take. Another big winner right now, domestic china market. Right now the dow down 103 points. Bob pisani. Over to the bond pits check in with Rick Santelli at cme in chicago. Good morning, rick. Good morning, carl. Well if you look at intraday ten, what you can glean from this chart, theres not much to glean from this oneday chart we made low yields after the housing data came out at 8 30 eastern and it was soft housing data. Some of the weakest starts since the fall of 2013. If you open the chart up to february 1st, a clearer picture. Certainly we are in a range. Its not as tight as some of the ranges but its tight about a quarter point. This is what you want to pay tension to. Right around 2. 17 to 2. 20 above the market. If you look at the spread between 10s and 20s, and this is important, if the feds going to embark on a removal of accommodation, but theres some debate, what you want to glean from the chart starting summer 2012 the flattest since then but the flattest is around 120 basis points. Were sitting at 140. Weve steepened a bit. Maybe some of the flatteners which is purports to be the trade, but theres second thoughts associated with it of it. Not just the last couple of days. For about the last month. Look at whats going on overseas in the bunds, twoday chart reveals sideways. But sideways under 30 basis points is significant. Because as you look at february 1st of the bund the way we looked at our ten, notice their range is tighter and it would make a lot of sense considering how small their yield is. But their range is 30 to 40 basis points. The fact that were below that is significant. So many traders will see how to acts once it gets close to 30 basis point level. Lets look at foreign exchange. Two day of the euro versus dollar, its building a little bit. Now granted, as you open the chart up to february of this year as well on the euro versus the dollar were still at very extreme levels. No market goes in one direction for ever. The same could be said with the perspective of the dollar versus the yen, also starting in february. Yes, its not at the extremes but its certainly hovering the extreme line. Carl, back to you. Thank you very much. Rick santelli. As we said earlier, oil prices have recovered but not much. Better bert that cupha coombs. We come off of the lows but trade lower. Now for a sixth straight day here. And weve got april options expiring on wti nymex crude, biggest position for strike price at 40. Not sure if well see that today but expire this afternoon. That could make for more volatility. We are trading may brent crude contract now. Take a look at complex, continues to be under pressure here. One of the things people are watching whether the talks with iran bear fruit. Also the dynamic on the election in israel if you get a new Prime Minister there might be more amenable to some treaty with iran the u. S. And others getting a treaty that could bring more oil back on to the market which is not what the mark is looking at. Despite weaker dollar for a second day, we are not seeing any carry through in commodities, certainly not in the metals. Theyre giving back all of their gains from yesterday. Thank you. Well talk to you soon. A new valuation for pinterest. Shares of rack space up sharply since Taylor Rhodes became the ceo six months ago. His unique strategy for moving beyond the cloud. Having trouble putting two up days together. Dows down 131. Back in a moment. The road. It can bring out the worst in people. But the mclass scans for danger. Corrects for lane drifting. And if necessary, it will even brake all by itself. It is a luxury suv engineered to get you there and back safely. For tomorrow is another fight. The 2015 mclass. See your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedesbenz financial services. [ male announcer ] at Northrop Grumman, we know in the cyber world, threats are always evolving. At first we were protecting networks. Then, we were protecting the transfer of data. And today its evolved to infrastructure. Finance. And military missions. Were constantly innovating to advance the front line in the cyber battle, wherever it takes us. Thats the value of performance. Northrop grumman. Opinions. Theres no shortage in this world. Who do you trust . Whose analysis is accurate . How do you make sense of it all . A simple unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts. Is that too much to ask . Nope. Equity summary score powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. And its only on fidelity. Com. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. Can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver . According to a regulatory filing pinterest has raised 367 million in its recent funding round. That values the startup around 11 billion, 11 billion. Pinterest plans to use money for international expansion. Its now one of the most highly valued startups in the world, jim. These are things that worry people. Constantly have this are you kidding me how can it be valuable . What would it be valued if it were a public company, wouldnt it show you theres overvaluation overvaluation . These guys round after round goes higher. I hope theyre realistic. Things have to go right. Box, a company a like round after round, finally its like wow, what did we do here . Theyve raised 764 million and probably not done. And this subsequent rounds to come. Look, you have to look at instagram, that turned out to be just be aware, when people talk about overvaluation, theyre looking. Speaking of startups, trouble for uber in south korea. The korea times reporting a handful of employees detains by violating the countrys transport law. South korean employees plan to summon the ceo and if he does not comply an arrest warrant could be issued. He was originally indicted in december, amid charges of running illegal taxi business. Uber corekorea says uber fully cooperated with the police. Uber does not believe employees have engaged in misconduct or illegal behavior. Youve got to be on your game when youre in every Single Market. Youll get attacked in every Single Market because theyre disruptive. I love it. I use it. I love it. Even 40 billion valuation . That was within i was hoping would be 20 25 but this is a this is one that yes, im going to say a truly valuable company because it disrupts a market that was ripe for disruption and its very wellrun. I know theres another player in it, but ive got to tell you, its an impressive algorithmic study how to disrupt an industry. For one just asking for it. Thats why. This United States the greatest those of us who use it are like okay this one where like shake shack valuation, very different in terms of the amount of the size but people love the product. People will buy the stock. Already a noun a verb. Uber. Like a kleenex. Every cell phone should come with it download it. Stop trading with jim in a moment. The dow weakening to lows of the early part of the session, down 176. Dont go away. Will you help us find a house for you and your brother . Woooooah youre not just looking for a house. Youre looking for a place for your life to happen. Zillow [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. So if you get a trade idea about, say organic food stocks schwab can help. With a trading specialist just a tap away. Whats on your mind lisa . Id like to talk about a trade idea. Lets hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. So you can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. Now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. Its never been easier with so Many Networks all in one place. Get live tv whenever you want. The xfinity tv go app. Now with live tv on the go. Enjoy over wifi or on Verizon Wireless 4g lte. Plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new Verizon Wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. Visit comcast. Com wireless to learn more. Take a look at the dow, down 164. S p down 20. Lp the inverse of yesterday. Same stocks that are up down two bucks, up two bucks yesterday. The two to watch today, carl bank of america, pushed it hard citi pushed it hard. These would be the stocks if you think theres a turn it would be those. Banking group strong fed tomorrow quizzical. A tough market. Its wearing people down. It really is. You want to do stop trading . If we have a minute here. You know look ive got to tell you, big stop trading name espr, people say what do you do up there when youre not talking to each other . Theyve got a cholesterol pill. The cholesterol drugs you heard about yesterday are needles. You know i prefer pill to a needle any day of the week unless youre really kind of masochist. Ive got them. And then Brent Saunders the wonderful activist which, again, i think you want to watch activist. If that stocks down there brent is talking a great game of 24 a share in 2017. Its a growth pharma thats the company that allergan deal closed we got our email from david pyott, i have got my new email david pyotts done. A good run. Did he ever. Real shareholder value. Talking about health care it is almost dominating the new high list today. Actavis, regeneron. Malloncot is cheaper than actavis. People have endlessly undervalued look at that thing. That is humming. It was much much lower. Its going higher. Its undervalued considering traditional pharma. Say hello to tim tebow. On the scout team for five minutes. An open mind what everybody says about chip. Mad money, 6 00 p. M. Simons here to tell us whats coming up next. Big moves, keep everybody up to speed. Lower for longer but case against nearterm rally in oil. Apple tv look like its the talk of the summer. Well have analysis. And the logic that art cashin says janet yellen is about to em employ on two days of fomc. Hour two on squawk on the street. Say youre a finance guy. A farmer. A researcher. You used to depend on experience. The internet. Your gut. Today you can use ibm watson analytics. It can make sense of all kinds of data. Uncover hidden correlations and new opportunities. And give recommendations with more confidence on who will buy. What to make. Where to plant. Which helps you make smarter decisions. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. 80 of the poor in africa are rural farmers. 96 of them are doing rainfed agriculture. Theyre all competing with each other; theyre all making very low margins making enough to survive but not enough to get out of poverty. So kickstart designs low cost irrigation pumps enabling them to grow high value crops throughout the year so you can make a lot of money. Its all very well to have a whole lot of small innovations but unless we can scale it up enough to where we are talking about millions of farmers, were not going to solve their biggest challenge. This is precisely where the kind of finance that citi is giving us is enabling us to scale up on a much more rapid pace. When we talk to the farmers and ask them whats the most important thing. First of all they say we can feed our families. Secondly, we can send our children to school. Its really that first step that allows them to get out of poverty and most importantly have money left over to plan for the future they want. Good tuesday morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street im Carl Quintanilla with sara eisen, simon hobbs, post 9 at the new york stock exchange. Faber is off. Tough tape especially coming off of yesterday. Weve yet to put two up days together this month. Oil not help falling below 43 a barrel earlier this morning. Thats where we start our road map. Oil prices fall, the Oil Services Sector seeing big declines. How you should be playing these stocks. Apple planning a Web Tv Service to debut this summer. Find out what it means if theres more upside for apple shares. And wall street under pressure ahead of todays fed meeting. Investors weary of possibility of Interest Rate increase. A read on what to expect from janet yellen. A live shot of capitol hill. Jack lew giving his annual testimony on the state of the International Financial system before the House Financial Services committee. Headlines from that testimony, of course, well bring it to you as soon as it crosses. Sometimes an image says it all. Happy st. Patricks day, art. The rest of the day to yourself, sir. Nice to see you. Good morning. Congratulations. Are you surprised that the strong bid we had in the last two hours of yesterday didnt follow through this morning . Yes but as carl pointed out weve had a difficult time putting together backtoback updays through the month of march. I think its a kind of sense of the indecisiveness of the markets exemplifies indecisiveness of the players themselves, cant be sure things data dependent yet data looks weak and fed might want to inch closer to liftoff if you would. Well, certainly we expect them tomorrow to formally announce theyre opening the way to a rate rise by removing the word patient on future Interest Rate rises but you suggest janet yellen might employ some poker logic here. What do you mean . Well its pretty simple. If she takes the word out, it doesnt compel her to raise rates. And she has a press conference immediately after, so she can calm the marks if they look like theyre destabilized by the removal at 2 00 in the statement. If they leave the phrase in by their own definition they are postponing any rate move for two months because they said it will be at least two months after the word patient comes out. Some people would be horrified that the idea that the leader of the most powerful central bank in the world will change the tenor of what shes saying on two days of trading. No i think its simple, the theory of games, kind of logic that wars are fought with. Youve got to give yourself the optimum flexibility and i think thats what she wants to do. The way they do that theyre data dependent and move on the Economic Data which by the way hasnt looked so hot lately. Todays Housing Starts yeah blame the weather but its the latest in a string of misses in the economy. Its been absolutely dreadful. If you look at the way they normally compute their inflation guidance guidance, they are going to be lowering that. Its not only is it not going to hit their target they may have to lower it from earlier expectations. A weird thing is the day before a fed statement has a mild upward bias but its one heck of an uphill drive today because of whats happening in europe and elsewhere. Arguably the markets are positioning for something more hawkish but the indication is its going to be more dovish. She can stress the poor data, manufacturing down three straight months at the same time, theres that possibility that she focuses on the dollar to a greater extent and the dots come down. Well the docs will be per flexing for the viewers that dont know. The dots relate to the estimates of the individual participants where they think certain economic targets will be. They have been more hawkish than the fomc has been. But i suggest to you if you look at bonds and if you look at the stock market yesterday, people are looking for at least a neutral, if not, dovish outcome from the state. What happens interesting today is the dollar is weak somewhere stocks are weaker. Usually stocks following the dollar the other way around. Yesterday the weak dollar helped stocks rally. Is that notable here . Its notable but its a trial separation than a divorce, you know . I think its very shortterm aspect. Oil, we mentioned earlier, opecs forecast yesterday, gold is moving in 10 increments thats weird. It is. I think thats part of the relative indecisiveness in this market. People dont have a commitment. You know to simons point about the strength in the final two hours yesterday that looked like people who were perhaps bidding during the day hoping that prices would fall and get a bargain and when they failed to do that in the final two hours they had to pay up and thats what they were doing. I dont find deep commitment here. You can see some of the big players have already moved their target over to europe theyre not so sure how much they want to stay invested in the u. S. Market. A vix expiration this week . Does that mean more chop than normal or not . Its quadruple x, that could be a problem. And were going to have an eclipse at the same time. All of the magic mumbo jumbo traders look for will be colliding friday. Can you remember the prayer that you revealed in your note overnight . Young men for centuries told on the presentation of the first corkscrew in ireland. I havent committed it to memory, i must say. Save that for next time. A great read. Art tashcashin from ubs. Bagpipes 1 30. When we come back oil Services Names seeing big declines today and over the last pont month as oil dips to new lows. Is this a buying opportunity . In my world, wall isnt a street. Return on investment isnt the only return im looking forward to. For some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. Which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. Our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. Start investing with as little as fifty dollars. If your life was gold how long do you think oil is falling for the sixth day in a row. Wti off of its lows of the morning but still, sitting near sixyear low, amid concerns that a glut in the United States is outpacing storage capacity. Big oil Services Names face continued selling pressure. Halliburton, 11 decline, just over the past month. Joining us now to discuss, baird Senior Analyst dan leaven who covers oil services and equipment. Before we get into the specific names, what do you think of the idea out there today a potential deal with iran over Nuclear Ambitions could add to the glut in oil, because they would release all of the new oil into the market . Yeah absolutely. I think thats going to be a challenge for the markets, as we look at global overall supply and demand balance. If we getfully kind of resolution in iran i rainranians talked about bringing 1 million baseballs a day in short order and now were 1 million to 2 million over supply. Absolutely thats a real risk and a real concern, as we look at the oil markets going forward. With brent down to 52. 91, lower for longer how you see the price of oil. A i think a lot of colleagues would agree. How much of that is already priced in . How much has been felt by the cost cuts and layoffs . I think were still very early in this process. Weve been saying lower for longer since back in about october. Prior to the opec decision and were sticking with that. The biggest driver rig productivity. Great for the oil Service Firms and emps efficient at extracting oil and the productivity of the Shale Oil Wells continues to go higher. The challenge is we dont believe theyve corrected enough. We think theres a lower crude price environment coming. For those looking at great franchises long term we think theyre going to fine better buying opportunities over the next 6 to 12 months. What are throws better buying franchises . What are names people should look to jump into at some point . The name most comfortable is schlumberger. Blue chip name in the space. You more expose sure to International Marks hit less hard than the u. S. Where were seeing rapid rig count declines rapid pricing declines. Thats a place to get better exposure. In terms of other names, im neutral now, but would look to get more aggressive in the future, halliburton followering the baker hughes transaction. Thats going to be a name youre going to want to own but you have to get the deal closed. You are v. To go through a lot of pain in interim to get the integration done. For those that want to get involved, i would tell them to wait but if you want to go now, id prefer baker hughes given the halliburton transaction. You more protection from the downside as well as leverage to. Upside if the stock starts working. What happens if you get a positive shock from the politicians . Talking about the export ban on oil being lifted. If that were possible if lawmakers would get behind it ihs has a report out suggesting 400,000 to twice it that number of jobs could potentially be created, particularly in the transportation of oil out of the country. I mean people worry that actually it would send the price of gasoline higher. Do you believe it would send the price of gasoline high or or lower as we heard yesterday. I think that when we talk about gasoline prices and ihs has a better perspective into the downstream issues than i do in the services space, but my take is if we did lift the band a narrowing in the gap between brent and wti. But it wouldnt be a huge benefit for consumers because we just would be normalizing close to where were at now from a jobs perspective, oil patch perspective, great for companies but i dont think wed see the full flow through into the consumer because theyre benefitting from low prices today and the changes would be very minute. With the price changes you mentions halliburtonbaker hughes deal which has yet to close. Do you expect more consolidation in the sector. I think consolidation in the Services Sector is a significant theme well see over the course of many years. I dont expect many transactions announced this year because we have a significant disconnect between buyers and sellers expectations. Sellers thinking about recovering back to where we were last year and buyers hoping for Bargain Basement prices. Outside distressed scenarios i dont see a lot of m a happening this year. As we get into 16 and 17 we could see more consolidation. Focused on the monthly jobs report and impact on oil and gasp it seems Like Services companies have born the brunt of the layoffs across the oil industry. Do you expect more to come . If so, how many are we talking about . I would expect more job cuts to come. A lot of companies have said were taking it at a quarter or a month at a time and the rig counts have continued to decline, i would not be surprised to see additional cuts across the oil firms especially the second quarter. I would expect to see announcements of additional cuts when we hit april earnings season. Thanks very much, dan leben, good to see you. Thank you. Apple might be launching a serious alternative to cable this fall. Thats according to reports. What does it mean for the stock and the stock of all of the Cable Companies . More on that after the break. Hey, girl. Is it crazy that your soccer trophy is talking to you right now . It kinda is. Its as crazy as you not rolling over your old 401k. Cue the horns. Just harness the confidence it took you to win me and call td ameritrades rollover consultants. Theyll help with the hassle by guiding you through the whole process step by step. And theyll even call your old provider. Its easy. Even she could do it. Whatever, janet. For all the confidence you need td ameritrade. You got this. The eclass has 11 intelligent driverassist systems. It recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. Warns you about incoming crosstraffic. Cameras and radar detect dangers you dont. And it can even stop by itself. So in this crash test, one things missing a crash. The 2015 eclass. See your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedesbenz financial services. Help an oil company overcome minus 47 degree temps, 5 foot ice, and 16 foot waves, to safely keep crude oil flowing 365 days a year. When emerson takes up the challenge its never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. Emerson. Apple reportedly planning to launch a Web Tv Service this fall according to the wall street journal. The service could feature a bunch of big named broadcaster, available only on apple devices. Josh lipton live with more on that story. Good morning, josh. Good morning, carl. You know when i spoke to apples eddie cue last week the itunes chief told me that we are beginning to see as cue said the reinvention of tv and told me Consumers Want to watch what they want when they want and where they want. Apple ceo tim cook of the recent Shareholder Meeting echoed those same comments discussing apples new partnership with hbo in which hbo streaming service will be available on apple devices for 15 per month. Cook and cue, they both know Consumers Want to watch tv everywhere and apple could be in the position to meet that demand. Apples launching of a Web Tv Service could help boost sales of the hardware already to dater the company has sold 25 million apple tvs. And the companys making moves to make that device more competitively priced slashing the price tag from 99 to 69. An Online Tv Service could potentially work on all ios devices. Consumers want to watch tv and movies on screens large and small and turn to apple. In the last quarter alone, apple shipped 75 million iphones and 21 million ipads, financial annists covering apple think that the tech giant is paving the way for grander ambitions in the tv market in your living room and they say a streaming tv service has the potential to help that process along. Carl back to you. Josh lipton out west. Sticking with apple and the Web Tv Service, lets bring in the Technology Analyst at btig. Good morning to you. Good morning, carl. A lot of discussion theyre going to do to the bundle what they did to the album. Is that true . Apple is whenever apple enters any market, people are feelful. What josh said is right, key number 75 million iphones they sold last quarter and ecosystem of half a billion people with iphones globally. But as far at tv is concerned this isnt a huge shock. Theyve been talking about this being an area of interest for a while. Youve seen developments with sling tv maybe sony talked about stuff, verizon talked about an over the top service. This shouldnt be a huge shock to people. Just a Natural Evolution of apple trying to capture you more into their ecosystem. Its been a while. Those who have waited for a refresh on tv out of apple have waited a long time. Youre saying now is the moment because its sort of the moment for everybody . I think thats one factor. But a year ago the wall street journal, i think the same author, wrote about apples initial attempts in the space. I think at the time they were talking about partnering with Cable Companies using a managed service because they were worried about the quality. Apples all about quality. With a managed service they can give you better quality of services as far as video stream. Look at the article from last night, this has nothing to doit and managed services. Theyre going full over the top, could be more disruptive it to the Cable Companies. Maybe apple wanted to do this earlier. Was frustration in dealing with Companies Like comcast, which is not new, that has led them to the next step of going full over the top for the service offering. How should we think of the grander ambition here for apple . Is it in a hardware television, is it something that you can watch on your ipod or ipad or iphone . What is the big picture look like here, say, one year out or even a few years out . We know that the vast majority of the profits are the iphones. A lot of that is extending the experience im think just use apples own words, listen to the management team, a lot of ways theyre trying to make your life better and where your life has frustration points are in the living room with what Little Development that has occurred with the set top box. You can provide a car experience, some people take that to the next step and say, you make a car, you dont necessarily need to make a car to improve someones experience in the car. Beauty of apple is as they negotiate in these industries if someone says we dont want to deal with you, apple, apples cash Balance Sheet is the ultimate gun they can put to anyones head and say well enter the market to a greater gee. Look at what apple is talking about, if comcast doesnt want to be part of that im not sure apple cares, they can get a fair amount of customers anyway. Look at sling tv. No broadcast, i think rico talked about 100,000 subs with no broadcast at all. The immediate point as to what their aims are here this is not about a physical set top box, this is not about a television, is it . This is about an app that lives somewhere else. Thats very important for the ecosystem, very for for the connectivity of apple watch and using that as remote control. Youre commoditizing the screen. That isnt where the game is clearly, with what theyre attempting to do here. This is an app that can sit anywhere provided your tv can connect to the internet. Customers are paying more for the screen size of the 6 and 6 plus but not paying for the greater amount of glass. Theyre paying for whats behind it. What were hearing about now has nothing to do with a new large tv. However, you know this is the first part. If next they can integrate things in television and make it a better experience apple is not only about the User Experience its about style. Theyre charging 10,000 for a watch. If they can make a better tv this can be the first step. If you take the brains out of the television which is what theyre doing, and say i will have it as an online app, theres no greater functionality to be gained from the tv. You can have it as a sleeker design but i suggest their aspirations move on somewhere else. You can have screens of tv screens that bill onuild and the wall. Can they chew gum and walk at the same time . Just because theyre doing one thing doesnt mean they cant evolve the product into an attractive Television Product or they call it a large display. Because theyre going in the living room doesnt mean they cant do things in auto to solve the issue that exists there. Im sure you noticed weakness that comcast, Time Warner Cable had at the open are you willing to write off the bundle and are these stocks at the highest that going to be at for a while . Thats a rich greenfield question. Look at article in the wall street journal a year ago, how rich and i have looked at this evolution. We thought they would have to partner with Cable Companies. This article today is not about partnering with comcast, its going over the top and that could be more disruptive than how we thought this mobile Video Service wouz going to emerge over time. Interesting times, walter. Thank you so much. Good to see you again. Straight ahead on the show will today and tomorrows fed meeting cause market fireworks . Investors expecting the word patience to be dropped from the feds statement, opening the way to a rate rise potentially in june. But what happens next . Jacks heart attack didnt come with a warning. Today, his doctor has him on a bayer aspirin regimen to help reduce the risk of another one. If youve had a heart attack be sure to talk to your doctor before your begin an aspirin regimen. Who do you work for . Your boss . Yourself . Your family . Our Financial Advisors are free to realize a plan to fit your familys unique needs. Well listen. Well talk. Well plan. Baird. Now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. Its never been easier with so Many Networks all in one place. Get live tv whenever you want. The xfinity tv go app. Now with live tv on the go. Enjoy over wifi or on Verizon Wireless 4g lte. Plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new Verizon Wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. Visit comcast. Com wireless to learn more. Good morning. Im sue herera. Heres your cnbc news update. Israelis are going to the polls to decide the political fate of Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu. Polls show a tight race. In a last ditch effort to appeal to his right wing base netanyahu reiterated his pledge to prevent the establishment of a palestinian state. Apple in talks and with program to offer a small bundle of tv net works. The wall street journal says the service would have 25 channels and be available across all devices. Apple is looking to price the new service at 40 a month and launch in september. Sothebys teaming up with ebay to launch a new Online Auction plats form. The first auctions will begin on april 1st with a new york themed sale which will include 13 letters from the facade of the old yankee stadium. In 2014 sothebys reportedly saw a 25 rise in online bidding. Oprahs holding an auction, contents of her condo up for bid on april 25th, more than 500 items up for sale including art, furniture, and clothing. The proceeds will benefit win fridays south African School for girls. Thats your cnbc news update at this hour. Back to you guys. Yesterdays rally has turned into a loss down 142 points on the dow. Lets get a Market Update now with bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Hello. Important thing today is cant put together any string of up or down days now. Look at s p 500, very choppy trading in the month of march. Mostly to the downside at least on europe the u. S. Side of things. S p 500, not far from the lows of the day. Right now led down by energy and material stocks 21 declining to advancing stocks. The big Economic News story today, of course the housing numbers. February Housing Starts well below expectations at 897,000. While most appears to be due to the weather, the northeast and the midwest, i want to see what happens in the month of march to convince me about that. Overall, modest declines in big housing names, everything is down fractionally. I would not call this a severe response given how greatly disappointing that number was overall. Energys the other big story. Of course see west texas intermediate at new lows here. Once again, today, we are seeing Energy Stocks down. Remember we saw this yesterday and then in midmorning we saw energy turn around even though it wasnt much of a rally in the underlying commodity itself. Im going to watch to see if we get that turnaround. Exxon the first big one that turn around late yesterday. Well see if that happens today. Look at xle, energy etf, nearing new lows once again for that. We will see if we can bounce like we did yesterday. A lot of attempts a lot, including a big one at the end of january and beginning of february to buy etfs around this. Not a particularly successful trade. Retailers, some of the smaller retailers lower today, bondtons lower, aeropostale, ubs did cut the price car tet at aeropostale. One big cap, target which has had a terrific run overall. That stock, as you can see, up fractionally today. That is historic high for target. Thanks for running us through the movers bob pisani. Part one of the feds twoday policy meeting kicking off today. Markets in the red. The dow, once again, negative for the year. Its down 130 points right now. The euros creeping higher against the dollar notching its first run of gains after the monster rally for the greenback. Will the fed lose patience, the wore and open the door for higher Interest Rates. Drew everyone most people expect the word patient to be dropped. I think the bigger question is how, if at all, will janet yellen and the fed address whats happened with the u. S. Dollar . Well i dont necessarily think they have to. Unless the fed is willing to restart quantitative easing and ease again nothing they can do about the dollar because other Central Banks will ease if the feds not willing to, right . Think can they just allude to it . The fed will send a powerful message, even if they just put it in statement or if she addresses it in the q and a, wont she . Look back at 1998 they didnt talk about it. They werent going to talk about it during the Asian Financial crisis i dont know when they would have its important to note, whether the fed hikes rates and everyone else cuts the results going to be the same. The only question for the fed to ask is where they want to end up after all of this has run its course. They also have to bear in mind the dollars actually being somewhat offset by oil, right . Decline in oil is helping the u. S. Economy rising dollar probably a little bit. On net it a rough wash. Jennifer how do you think the market specifically the fixed income market currencies and rates, are set up for whats going to be announced tomorrow . Actually i think the market might be a bit expecting a bit too dovish of comments coming out of the fomc meeting this week. We believe that the dollar wont be addressed in the statement. It will likely be part of the q a, as expected but we believe theyre going to downplay the Dollar Strength given of course some of the relief from oil and also you know at the end of the day the dollars the traernryeasurys responsibility not the fed. We think the fed will be for positive on the Economic Outlook. Yellen set this up in her Humphrey Hawkins testimony, removing patient, moving to reasonably confident that inflation will reach their 2 target. I think the market how far, is perhaps expecting the committee to be more dovish. That could be a bit of a shock to the market tomorrow. All right. Drew what about that Economic Outlook . You think its just the weather, the cold weather, thats leading to all of these data misses . Certainly. I dont expect the fed to focus on it. Janet yellen doesnt care whether or not i had a back ache from shoveling, right . If you couldnt get somewhere to buy the thing, you couldnt buy it. You couldnt break ground on the house, you couldnt have a housing start. Permits went up by 3 . Clearly firms are preparing to do things. Its just they werent able to get them done. You know the problem for the fed of course is that this will probably move into march as well. So a lot of the data for q1 is all weather messed up and theyll have to look past that and i think they will. The same that that theyll combine the dollar and oil impacts and look past both of those. Drew you raise the more important question where they end up having gone through this. Where do you think they end up . I think once the fed hikes theyre going to hike a couple of times in a row and not going to be in this on again off again scenario. From a fed perspective, two pieces of information, market impact, real economy impact which takes 6 to 9 months. Buying yourself six weeks makes no sense. Dont you look at yl janet yellen and think every bone in her body is to be possibly dovish as she can be. Last couple of appearances not the case but until that case even bent over backwards. Theres a difference between doing it where we were at and where we are now. I would point out in her past iterations in the fed, she was not ats dovish and janet yellen adjusts to the leadership role. It will be different from anything weve seen before out of her. Jennifer, youre shaking your head and nodding your head. I dont believe that we can ultimately put yellen in the dovish bucket. Shes a pragmatic chair and shes been gradually moving towards a centrist position for well over a year now. So again, i think that the fed, unlike previous cycles i think the feds going to be level early to the initial rate hike and a slow path as opposed to normal fed, normalization which would be late to the game and quickly raising rates. So i agree that in will be a couple of backtoback increases, expecting 75 basis points best case before the end of the year. Interesting 24 to 48 hours. Thank you both for joining us on the fed. Lets bring in the additional wisdom of steve liesman, senior economics reporter exclusive reports of the cnbc fed survey. Steve . Simon, lets me put all of this discussion about the fed in context of the markets. What our panel of 38 respondents, economists Money Managers and analysts see is an environment of rising Interest Rates and muted stock market gains. Lets talk about the s p 500 and outlook of the panel. 2081 the close yesterday. By june if you zoom in you see it going down thats the outlook. Until it comes by the end of the year, 5 gain over that period of time. Next year slight gains. 2247 for a total gain over the twoyear or year and something period of about 8 . Muted stock gains. Lets show you Interest Rate environment seen by the panel. What you see here 2. 14. By the end of the year up 2. 6 from the current level of 2. 08. What is 2016 look like . You can see those Interest Rates coming up again, 3 . Over 3 on the tenyear by the end of 1016. Take a look where the panel sees the fed funds market going. 25 basis points. Gradually creeping up to 3 . The end of rate hikes in this psyching. Some commentaries about the markets from our pant participants. Europes negative Interest Rates are awesome and powerful force. Market agents underestimate how much they encourage rising asset prices. But lynn points out, the fed may seek a smooth and slow exit for monetary ease stock and bond markets initially will bolt for the door. On the other side a lot of contradictory commentary scott wrenn, it will take the fed years to normalize the rates. The cyclical bull market still has room to run april lot of divergent opinions about the federal reserve, the im pack on the economy, Interest Rates and stocks and thats why youre seeing all of this volatility up 300 one day, down 150. Could be a visit from the ghost of fed Interest Rate hikes future today. Triple digit moves in seven of the past eight sessions. Steve liesman. Like Goldman Sachs getting into the world of shadow banking. Later, kevin oleary are weigh in on what a Web Tv Service from apple could mean from the media industry. Barbara just bought a bike. She wrote a tweet about it. You cant learn much from that. But take data from millions of tweets combine that with your companys supply chain and sales data. Apply ibm analytics and expertise, and all of a sudden, you can learn which bikes to build what to make them from, where to sell them. Because barbara and the world just told you how to build a better bike. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. 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If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any symptoms of an allergic reaction stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Why pause the moment . Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. For a free 30tablet trial go to cialis. Com today on trading nation how to protect your portfolio if the fed loses patience. Are oracle shares worth your money ahead of earnings . Catch it every day, 2 00 eastern time hour. Squawk on the street is back right after this. So open an account with schwab. And when a market move affects, say a Cloud Computing stock youre holding, we can help you decide what to do. With tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. So when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out. You can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. Have a look at utility sector. The only major s p group that is up on this down day. Dom chu at hq with more. By a quarter of a percent. One that goes really in opposite directions here in terms of the way the Interest Rates move. So its a down day for the markets overall but one that little sliver of green there is holding up for utilities. Among the leaders today, nrg energy and Aes Corporation and ameren, some sectors in focus as we head towards day one. And day two of the fed Interest Rate meeting. Back over to you. With an ipo expected to price tonight, Goldman Sachs is highlighting the role of the shadow Banking System in the economy. Mary thompson has more on that. You know since the financial crisis banks have been dialing down on lending to a certain part of the economy because of steep Capital Requirements in place for riskier loans. This is fueling rise of the shadower of unregulated Banking System. Goldman sachs taking a baby step with the Goldman Sachs bdc Business Development corporation. Bdcs provided credit to low rated middle market firms. Goldmans bdc expected to price between 20 and 21 a share, 6 million shares in 900,000 share overallotment trade under gsbd. Now Goldman Sachs declined to comment but a lawyer says other banks are keeping an eye on the ipo to see if its a way to provide funding without making outright loan that carry hefty requirements. It doesnt require a bank set aside additional capital. Goldman, according to a filing will hold 20 stake in the firm investing alongside its clients benefitting from Capital Appreciation in the high dividends bdc is expected to pay out, as required to distribute 90 of its income. For goldman a small investment so any risk is reputational than financial. If it underperforms, according to the analyst. Goldman Asset Management arm does face a tough market right no bdcs with competition from lenders and asset quality of bdcs at low level. So wall street will be watching. Thank you so much. Over to the cme. Collect in with Rick Santelli and get the santelli exchange. Good morning, carl. Happy first of twoday fed meeting. Id like to welcome our special guest, former fed governor from 01 to 06 mark olson. Thank you for taking time this fed cycle. Thank you very much for inviting me. Listen, you know last night i was doing research and National Bureau of Economic Research dictates theres been 11 Business Cycles since the end of world war ii going to 2009 and out of the 11 cycles broke it down roughly 58 months of expansion, 11 months of contraction, each Business Cycle shy of 70 months. Is our fed on borrowed time with regard to the unbelievably large amount of accommodation thats been in the system basically since 2008 . Excellent question. Weve never been here before. Were in uncharted territory. We have never been in an environment where weve had an extended period of expansion and yet the fed very much in a mode of providing stimulus in the economy. So weve got two things we need to worry about. One the size of the Balance Sheet and the other direction of Interest Rates. So its time to start making a move and start making some adjustments. And the first thing i think is the signal that will come today. I expect the word patience might be dropped the key, what will it be replaced with . I see. Very excellent point. It might be replaced with another word that would borrow some time. I guess i think my guess is that it will be a sinynonym of flexible. The debate on the forum, theres not a lot of ph. D. S on the trading floor, and i dont mean to dismiss those who have or havent, but the discussion is indepth regarding misses opportunities when the economy was doing pretty good in 2011 or 2012. Now rushing to remove accommodation at a time when many believe the worst time considering direction of other Central Banks. So what happens really bugging the fed to do it right now . Youve got the dual mandate. Remember, youve got one segment of it jobs that are moving exactly in the right direction and giving us a sense the economys on track which i believe it is. But remember from the last statement they said the near term inflation is down. And the 2 inflation target is still very important to them. And try to tighten when inflation is still in a negative mode or even flat will be a very difficult thing for i think the fomc to do. Remember, it is the role of the fed, Monetary Policy to take away the punch bowl when were getting started. That was gone long ago. So now what do you do . When we still have either a flat or negative inflation, thats a conundrum. I see. And in the final half a minute that we have sir, there is now debate that some of the recent movement in the european markets is because many in the european zone are questioning timing of the fed, questioning whether the removal will happen or the normalization will happen in 2015. So yes or no do you think theres a rate hike by the u. S. Central bank this year . Yes. Definitely a rate hike. Awesome. And definitely some contraction of the Balance Sheet. Excellent. Mark thank you for being concise. I like one word answers to direct questions. Look forward to talking to you the next fed meeting. Simon. Back to you. My pleasure. Look forward to it. Ive been googling here some of the sin know nism nisms for flexible, soft springy, spongy could be an interesting meeting. Up next crude oil down for the sixth day in a row. How low will it go . Well take you live to the nymex when squawk on the street comes right back. Now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. Its never been easier with so Many Networks all in one place. Get live tv whenever you want. The xfinity tv go app. Now with live tv on the go. Enjoy over wifi or on Verizon Wireless 4g lte. Plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new Verizon Wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. Visit comcast. Com wireless to learn more. You can see there markets slipping today in trading. Conoco phillips trades slipping after the Company Announced a threeyear plan to cut Capital Spending to 11. 5 billion from a prior 16 billion level. Under the new plan the Company Expects spending on Major Products to decline while spending on certain drilling projects to increase does expect lower and more volatile oil prices in the foreseeable future. Back over to you. All right. Speaking of oil prices, thanks, dom, we are looking at Wti Crude Oil back above 43 a barrel barely. Bertha coombs is at the nymex with more. Good morning. The thing that traders are talking about, we have seen rig counts come down you have seen Companies Like conoco and others saying they are not going to expand on their capital expenditures, but production is still high. So really, to find stability in prices in oil we need to see production start coming down particularly here in the u. S. This afternoon were going to be getting the inventory numbers from the American Petroleum institute and the government inventory numbers tomorrow so that is now the focus. Seasonally this is when we start to see a bit of a turn. Traders are expecting tomorrow well see another big build, but as we get towards later march, you start seeing more of the refiners come online, more of the refiners start to build up supplies and pump up their refining for the summer driving season. Seasonally that could also add a bit of a floor. We are likely to make a run at 40 at wti. Will we stop in the high 30s. Thats the big question. Another run at 50 when it comes to brent prices. As oil and Energy Prices continue to move lower today, we are seeing a little bit of a bounce on gold and silver as they touch a fourmonth low ahead of the fomc meeting, but its really very weak as far as the move that we are seeing on the gold futures, guys a lot of cautiousness there even as we are seeing the dollar lower for a second day. Back to you. All right. Thanks for running us through the action at the nymex. Energy and materials by the way, the two worst performing groups right now, op the s p. Lets send it over to jon fortt with a look at whats coming up next on squawk alley. Yeah well where theres disruption theres often opportunity. A look at apple tv. The over the top service that the company is ready to roll out. Will it have a big impact. Rack spaces ceo thinks the cloud is maturing and he can make money not competing on price. Well dig into that. One of the creators of Google Wallet will join us to talk about the creating landscape of payments in mobile all coming up on squawk alley. Your moms got your back. Your friends have your back. Your dogs definitely got your back. But whos got your back when you need legal help . We do. Were legalzoom, and over the last 10 years, weve helped millions of people protect their families and run their businesses. We have the right people onhand to answer your questions backed by a trusted network of attorneys. So visit us today for legal help you can count on. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. In new york state, were reinventing how we do business so businesses can reinvent the world. From pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping, biotech to clean energy. Whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started. Only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that Partner Companies with universities, and Venture Capital funding for high growth industries. See how new york can grow your business and create jobs. Visit ny. Gov business another day and another triple digit move for the Dow Jones Industrial average. Today its lower. Yesterday it was higher. The dow down about 134 points. The s p 500 down half a percent. As we can see its an outsized move lower for the Dow Jones Industrial average. The nasdaq is holding in there, down 0. 2 . A lot has to do with correlations with other assets classes. Oil dropping below 43s a barrel. Its now just above that. And, of course, the dollar which is actually weakening ahead of the fed meeting and the announcement tomorrow. Yep. Fomc front and center waiting for janet yellen the statement and News Conference tomorrow, of course. In the meantime lets send it over to squawk alley where it is tuesday. Thanks guys. It is 8 00 a. M. At pinterest headquarters in san francisco, california 11 00 a. M. Here on wall street and squawk alley is live. Happy st. Patricks day. Jo

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