Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20150323

Near record 10 Million Barrels a day. Of the 50 or so oil related stocks that i follow only about ten, 20 are up over the past month. All down more than 20 . Goodrich petroleum down more than 40 . One group that has been completely i think ignored, the offshore drillers. Theyre down worse, when youve got the hercules offshore. You cant even mention it now. All difficult. Ensco, a very modern rig system. The number of rigs coming on is shocking. People dont understand its about supply not necessarily demand. The tenyear treasury yield at 1. 92 or so. Again, down from our recent highs. But lets not forget jim. Yes, were down in the near term, but were actually higher than we were by about 30 basis points for our lows so far in the year. Excellent. Also in our road map this morning, shares of Gilead Sciences are down. Could be the big stock story of the day. The Company Warning of complications related to its hepatitis c drug. Chuck schumer calling for an investigation into Lumber Liquidators and its products. And starbucks ending the ride of race together on customers cups but Howard Schultz says the campaign will live on in other forms. Meantime, we begin a new week for the markets. 22 points away from the nasdaqs alltime closing high of 5,048. The alltime intraday high was 5,132. The dow and the s p coming on their first weekly gain in the last four weeks. As we noted, crude oil is pulling back again this morning, after last weeks 2 gain and no matter how low oil goes jim, the producers here the producers in america, the producers in africa nobody seems to really want to cut production. Saudi arabia getting close to 10 Million Barrels a day once again. They dont care. No but the 42 43 level has been sticky. During your show on friday thats when the spike came up it was an expiration day. The one thing i will point out is the really great guys i deal with, mr. Mears, and rich kinder they have said theres real demand at 4243. That is when nonhedge funds come in, but actual buyers. Keep track of that level. It has held twice now. There are two important things also to watch for in oil. And ive been the oil geek here. Youre not a geek. This is so key to this market. Yes, it is. I think so. Ive been out there saying i think theres some its not just lower gas prices. There are negative impacts. A journal story today about how Business Investment has been reduced. Weve been trying to report on this for a few months. Youve done a great job. You understand that when we see a cutback, and youve been in midland, youve been to these places, these are growth areas and we could see we saw some texas Federal Reserve numbers last week that showed there is a slowdown. We make it up with the dardens of the world, but lets keep track of it. This is where employment flourished. 23 of all new jobs created in the last five years have come from texas, so the thesis is this. As the numbers come down will it skew the data to give us a false read that the u. S. Economy is slowing down . Well wait and see anyway. Two things with crude oil. Number one, theres a law up in north dakota that if your rig is shut down for a year, youre done. So theres some concern now that as people have laid down rigs in the fall as we roll into the summer, youre going to have to see people drill a well. Because otherwise theyve wasted their capital spending. But take a look at ksu. They preannounced. Why . Because of energy. Typically, what happens is the rails have had a lot of Different Union pacific, this gives you a chance maybe to buy it. But theyre in fracking. Talking about how fracking sand has just decreased dramatically but, of course the wells themselves are using more frackingfrack ing ing sand because theyre going after high gradient. This is a convoluted way of saying production is so not peaking. The two words you just mentioned, if youre interested in oil at all, high grading. High grading is basically going after your most productive and cheapest cost of production, so you shift from over here to your best wells, and thats what weve seen, so people are getting greedy. That ones at 35 bucks. Lets just move it over here. Right. The saudi arabia news is very negative. Although no one really expected them to blink. It just comes out that nigeria is going to add no imports into this country. Mexicos fighting for share. Canadas fighting for share. Gasoline not going to go up. Theres a Goldman Sachs note saying, you know how they word these things, they said theres a Downside Risk to their 65 end of year price target for crude oil. Its not going to bounce back like that. Mr. Moncrief said it will push back. It was tremendous. I think that were going to have a lower price for a longer time than people realize. Okay. I would agree with you, by the way. Based on what weve seen. And youve done a ton of work. Nobodys cutting production. Nobody. And the one country Goldman Sachs noted i think it was barclays or goldman this morning said youve got to watch libya. Libyas been swinging by about 500,000 barrels a day. So its kind of like which way is libya going to go . Actually may have an impact on your market. What else is on your radar . I think its time to not buy biotech. Some interestingly negative news on Cystic Fibrosis. A gilead call. Seems very minor to me, but it doesnt matter, its going to drive the group down. We are seeing i think we in the Biotech Sector j. J. Was on. Been on a big run. Why . Because of takeover talk. If hes on squawk, theres no takeover coming. Its peaking right here. A downgrade saying enough is enough. Just be aware. If you havent bought from this group yet, youve got time. Going to come in a little. Biotech. Yeah. The numbers have been theyve been staggering. We tried to do this on the show friday, and i didnt want to use the b word. I didnt want to use bubble. Because i have no idea. But the statistics on the number of companies that are not only up, but up double digits this year, i said this and tell me if you agree. I dont know whats beginning to happen with most of these names, but i do know this. 90 of the drugs are not going to become blockbusters, period. The markets trading as if they are. A lot of these companies have really terrific formulations that are in phase one and phase two. So many things can go wrong in the interim. I mean thats a company i think has a shot at making things big. I think cautions as warranted there as the oil stocks down 20 , 30 , might get interesting eventually. I just dont want people to get hurt. Okay so i just you probably saw me counting on my fingers and toes. Ive got all 150 members of the ibb in a screen here on my fax set. The month of march, there was 140 stocks on my screen. How many biotechs are down this month . 12. Out of how many . 150. Thats that just shows you a little overheating. I dont want to call it the end of the world because then you suddenly find pharmacyclics. So this group is just frankly, what you have to do is watch the crosscurrents. These are battlegrounds, and before, there were no battles. 12 stocks of those 150 are up more than 20 this month. Theyre up 62 45 34 and 37 , names ive never even heard of. But now i have. Theyre very big on needs. Immuno therapy. I just noticed that health care is very expensive, but health care seems to have won in this world of health care versus oil. I know they dont sound like that they should maerkttter, but theres big money going into health care, so youll see a lot of the Health Care Stocks percolate up. But thats a totally different skill set, right . I know some really smart people in health care. They know they put gasoline in their car. Thats about the extent of their Oil Knowledge and vice versa. But i think they come back to Cardinal Health they come back to amirisource bergen. And theyve rewarded them. Biotech into this. Im just saying when i hear the numbers that you just gave me i feel less confident plowing in right now and would like a pullback. Even regeneron. Hey, give us a chance here. Let it cool. Theres nothing wrong with that. Other places to go. Noted. Mankind, by the way, the worst performer over the past month. That is not working. Their breathalyzer is not really working. I want to get the right use for that, but i have to tell you that mankind is not the place. Lets move on to the company that were drinking. Starbucks announcing that its baristas will no longer be asked to write race together. The coffee chain will continue other aspects of its campaign aimed at sparking discussions about race. Just days ago on a fine program you may have heard about called mad money, he defended his companys race together initiative. A. L. All were doing is potentially do something catalytic to start a discussion. Were simply trying to raise the awareness, the level of empathy and compassion necessary to bridge the Cultural Divide that exists in this country today. If a customer or a barista wants to opt out of it it is not mandated. Its simply an act of kindness. So that ends now. Whatever you think about the initiative its taken a lot of criticism. No matter how good of a thing you try to do youre going to get slaughtered by it. Mankind and diabetes its a breathalyzer. Just pointing that out. You cant know every stock by heart. You have to. You know about 3,900. Ill give you a break. So this i didnt know that the right on cop part was going to end here. I now think that the next stage for this if i were mr. Schultz is what larry cramer is doing in usa today. That was a very thoughtful section with conjunction with starbucks about knowledge of race which i think is so important. So knowledge of race in a multimedia way, and starbucks sponsoring that, is i think welcome. I think this was a difficult issue, the race together issue, is theres many reasons we all feel at home going to starbucks and i think it made some people feel less at home. This is a huge topic. Its hard. Were a business program. The stock has not seemed to be impacted. Look hes trying to do a good thing. And were leaving it at that. Trying to do a good thing is a good thing. Im not saying trying to do a good thing is a bad thing, because thats oxymoronic. But i also feel its something you talk at home you talk at school. Its easier at home to talk about because you want to tell your kids how you know whats the right thing to do. Than it is talking coffee. I think the one thing weve learned last year in particular is that in social media, everythings going to be a controversy in some form of fashion. I have villanova in one of my pools. Oh cramer you better stick to stocks. Just trying to have a little fun. Right. But, you know, karen cramer always had a good view on this. She said, listen unless youre a rhinoceros shut up. Ive got the greatest tweet ever to read to you. This was directed to me and squawk on the street. Whos the idiot producer that selected loud mouth sully cnbc to facilitate this morning. Not interested in his diarrhea mouth. Is there a biotech that can cure diarrhea mouth . Im going to go with parago. That might be the way to deal with this. Youre good. Coming up the coauthor of becoming steve jobs says it is the first book to get it right. And as we head to break here we are very fracturely down. More when we return. Say youre a finance guy. A farmer. A researcher. You used to depend on experience. The internet. Your gut. Today you can use ibm watson analytics. It can make sense of all kinds of data. Uncover hidden correlations and new opportunities. And give recommendations with more confidence on who will buy. What to make. Where to plant. Which helps you make smarter decisions. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. And watch shares of Lumber Liquidators once again today because Chuck Schumer is calling for the Consumer Product Safety Commission to investigate the company and its flooring that is made in china. The democrat from new york wants the product tested and ordered it recalled if it is deemed to be unsafe. All of this, of course comes after a recent 60 minutes report suggesting that the flooring did not meet key environmental standards. Jim . Look the company has said that anybody who wants it tested, theyll test it. The company has been very forthcoming. Do i think the company has survivability . I think that we talked about it endlessly on the network, that this is a senator calling for an investigation where theres been an investigation. Weve learned that congress they listen to what the shorts say. They listen to what the media says and they call for investigations. Its kind of the process. I dont know whether they can get any more on limber liquidators, but its a pretty wellplowed field. So it sounds like youre not too concerned about necessarily another knockon derivative effect because the investigations are already occurring. Exactly. I think what happens is if you own Lumber Liquidators, youre either completely unconscious and in a comatose state, or you recognize the risk. And anything between that is just ridiculous. All right, pepsico announcing it has appointed Richard Fisher to its board. Just days ago, he retired as president and ceo of the dallas Federal Reserve after a decade on the job. The pepsi ceo says fisher brings a deep knowledge of financial matters and breadth of Global Experience and expertise in International Trade and regulatory matters. No doubt, fishers a smart guy. But does he know the soda business . I think that ingenuity trying to build a board of people who really have a more broad look overseas. And domestically in terms of finance. Economics. I will tell you that Richard Fisher i have said on this air that he was often wrong, because hes antiaccommodation. I add him to the pepsico board for that. You add him for his ability to provoke discussion. Hes probably one of the foremost discussion provokers. What is he going to bring to the board . How do we market frito lay . How do we move volumes and cases of pepsi and diet pepsi . Theres sometimes more to it than you want a board member whos got a worldly view if youre an international company. I think when you look at boards these days youve got to have a multinational perspective. Would he be my choice . I dont know. Hes a smart guy. Bottom line do you think he will give pepsi shares a pop . No. If you buy it on that, wow. That would be a bad call. Buy pepsico because it is done very well. There are people on boards who are academics, and they often dont bring anything to the bottom line but theyre provoke provoking in a room. If youre a big building national, you want to have a little radar screen on that. Fair enough. Up next it is jim cramers mad dash. You see how short i am. Thats the key reason why we have the segment. How short i am. Only on mondays. This monday, as a matter of fact. Were going to count you down to the opening bell. Take a look at the futures as we head to a break. The s p and dow may open a couple points up. The nasdaq may open a couple of points down. Interesting individual stock stories. More squawk on the street from the nyse right after this. When the moments spontaneous, why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . 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And the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why weve built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. All right, its time now for the mad dash. Lets get to a couple stocks that need to be on your radar. Cyberark. A great growth stock group that has been in a funk. Cyber security stocks. Bank of america says this is the time to buy. I have to tell you, this group is redhot. Remember Palo Alto Networks and fire eye, they will also go up on this call. Stock number two this morning. Okay heres one thats been sitting there, yahoo. Merrill likes it. This is the first time ive heard this in a long time on an earnings basis, they are saying tumblr is going to be a material Growth Engine for yahoo. So its not just japan and alibaba for once. This is so important that i want to show you how i want to get the attention on this yahoo call. This is me really. Its okay. Is it . I drank a lot of milk. Its an orange crate cart. Whats our third stock . I mentioned vertex. Going to be down the most because of some issues with a Cystic Fibrosis drug. Dont panic. This is the pullback in biotech. Expect it. Live with it. Well come out of it. Just got an email based on our conversation earlier, 70 of the ibb is up over 50 weeks. Youve got to be kidding me stock four. Im trying. What can i say . What can i do . Give me the box. Carnival downgraded by deutsche bank. I dont know if thats the right call. Is it a dollarbased call . So smart. So smart. Or just a lucky guess. They are building ships now that have so many people out of royal caribbean. I dont know i dont know. But other ships are built in the eurozone though. You are building a ship thats being built in euros, too. Theyre all built in italy or German Shipyards for the most part. Whats on mad money tonight . We have 3m. Thats rare. A rare interview. Very rare. And such a great guy. What a great multinational. Core portfolio holding. Were going to look forward to that on mad money. Watching carnival. Jim says a very very important call on yahoo that fundamentally has to do with earnings. The opening bell now just about three minutes away. A little more than that. Were going to bring it to you. All the news you need to know. Were back right after this. The lightest or nothing. The smartest or nothing. The quietest or nothing. The sleekest. Sexiest. Baddest. Safest,. Tightest,. Quickest,. Harshest. Or nothing. At mercedesbenz we do things one way or we dont do them at all. The 2015 cclass. See your authorized mercedesbenz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedesbenz financial services. Its more than the cloud. Its security and flexibility. Its where great ideas and vital data are stored. With centurylink you get advanced Technology Solutions from a trusted it partner. Including cloud and hosting services all backed by an industry leading Broadband Network and people committed to helping you grow your business. You get a company thats more than just the sum of its parts. Centurylink. Your link to whats next. You are watching cnbcs squawk on the street live. The opening bell set to ring here in just seconds. We are expecting likely a mixed open. The dow, s p, and nasdaq futures not indicating a huge move but there are a lot of really interesting individual stories today. Yes. And one of the things you come in on monday and you try to look for anomalies. Heres one. Raymond james goes by genworth. They have policies that have been really difficult to fund. A little 7 stock will get people going. Longterm care is so hard. I should correct a quote that i said. The ibb is up 70 in the past year. Wow. Youre watching the opening bell. The s p 500 at the cnbc realtime exchange. And here down in town at the big board, amn health care staffer, celebrating its 30th anniversary. Over at the nasdaq the Oklahoma City National Memorial and museum in recognition of the upcoming 20th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing. Hard to believe that it was 20 years ago. Another one where we all remember where we were. Yeah. Just a terrible day in america. There you go. Lets get back now to the markets. We are seeing the bells ring. Were starting to see some stocks trade. Weve got a lot of individual names on our radar right now. The dow opening up 13 points. Its very interesting, because apache was downgraded today. Apache happens to be one. The ceo was on the new ceo. Im kind of attracted to that just because ive always felt that that company was very undervalued. That stock going up today. Its very interesting to see these oils trying to maintain a bid at a time when i think oil is really not going to be higher. But one thing to watch also with oil is debt. There is record oil and gas debt issuance. But interesting article, i think it was in the ft this morning also noting that hey, this is a cheap way to shore up your Balance Sheet if you want to be more aggressive, taking advantage of opportunities down the road because some of your friends and neighbors might not be doing as well. You mentioned earlier, goodrich. They have refinanced using the equity market. When you see that that makes them safe to own. And i think thats important. I dont think everything is a big, black hole. The hyg has not really been hit. I think the whole notion that the oil patch is going to take us apart has not worked versus the darden trade. Were going to see sonic reports in. Sonic is a classic one of these situations that does well because youve got a few extra bucks in your pocket. Interesting call from ubs on staples. I like that call. I like that call. Because the combination stock is down 11 for the year. Theyve got the office depot you know, these amalgums have worked. The ones that have worked the best have been in semiconductors. If you take a look avago raised the price target 131 to 160. I like the stocks in the Semiconductor Group like cyprus where you have connectivity. The connectivity internet of things is spurring a lot of really good semiconductor stocks, whether it be corvo, avago, cypress. It is certainly not a pc market. Pc do not look at the companies that go i said dont worry about cgate. Im worried about cgate. I dont care. The stocks that are down big tend not to recover in a given year. Corvo was my stock of the month last month. If you go to the website of corvo not cuervo corvo. When you look at corvo, what you see is an actual website that says listen we are now able to do better against apple and samsung. If i were apple and samsung, say wait a second could you not put that at least on the website . But that is about no longer being pitted against each other to be able to get business. I like that. Sky works jim, look how good you are. That was the next company i was going to ask you about. Put together a remarkable company and stocks not done going higher even though its up 40 for the year. Piper jeffrey downgrading. Theres competition in storage. Wherever theres competition, youre going to be able to find someone whos able to make a call. Emc chart was breaking down. Apple was down critically on friday. A lot of people were worried, they needed to stop focusing on the ticktotick apple. I do want to read the new steve jobs biography. Whats interesting is that were finally starting to see some of these smaller mid Cap Technology names really grab not only market share but finally some of the headlines for the nimble storages against dmc. Mxpi. Free scale. These companies, they are simply not going to let anyone else in their segment, which is why the ceo of intel, when they did that preannouncement, that was beginning of what i regard to be you can no longer make a lot of money in companies that are based on the pc. Because the world is going mobile. When you have a salesforce. Com, when he comes on the show and says everyone can control their business through their hand held, thats a gamechanger and thats why youre seeing those stocks that put chips in there. When you look at cyrus logic, you combine your cell phone with a device thats small and you find magnificent sound, who needs a pc . Okay these are interesting calls. But there is one call out there this morning which to me may be the most gutsy call of the day. Maybe i can find it. A gutsy call. You know what it is its Raymond James going a strong buy on genworth. Down 59 over a year. Maybe they reserved enough in the longterm. Health care ahs was lifted. These things were written in the 90s before we had a better idea about the longevity. The longevity, whether it be because of biotech, whether it be better medical system is hurting the companies that wrote longterm care policies. When they didnt expect the cost of longterm care to go as high. You are able to get 24hour help roundtheclock help if you have one of these policies trying to make it so its only 12hour help. That is an ultimate battleground. And youre not going from a neutral to a bye. Like we dont like it. Youre beginning to a strong buy. Laying it out there on the table. I dont know if people realize all the oil names that have been routed out. Its not an oil name. Genworth is the worst s p 500 stock over the past 12 months. The reserves keep going up and up and up. Why . Because this is basically one of the worst mistakes that an Insurance Company could ever make. Because if you take a look at the travelers, they didnt make that mistake. Travelers, 52week high last week. Allstate is holding in. Those are all about not as much price competition as we thought. All right, one quick one before we get to bob here. Big call on pfizers. Talking about manage care. They were talking about a new drug whenever i see these new drugs, an oncology franchise, that is postmenopausal, advanced breast cancer. I dont want to give people false hopes. But pfizer theyre talking about a 13 billion franchise. That is huge. So many names on the move this morning here. Lets give jims brain a break here. No, im loving it going back to pepsico. Look at dupont. Dupont said listen were not putting health i find to have someone who is brilliant and provocative about the world in a changing world where its greece, we havent even mentioned greece. Where its mexico versus canada. Where is your producer where is the idiot producer that put me on tv this morning. Sally shin. What did i say we should talk about this morning . Greece. Producer . They said whos the idiot producer that put me on. Very sweet girl. Shes fantastic. Hate to call her idiot. You think she doesnt take that personally . No, for putting me on. Oh okay. We talk about greece. Nbg and grek, the National Bank of greece. This is the week. Theyre running out of money. April 7th is when i think theyre out of money. And its going to be back on the radar screen as sick of it as we are. The rest of europe is made up. There was a cartoon it was Angela Merkel as a cyclops. And greece with a slingshot. And thats where they are right now. Theyre talking about reparations from world war ii. There was a German Company that last week went sbainto a Tourism Office and paid reparations. Voluntarily. Bob pisani on the floor. Angela merkel is meeting with the Greek Foreign minister. Well see if anything comes out of that. We see oil down. Thats very interesting. The euro is strong. So not surprisingly europe and germany are a little bit on the weak side. Biotechs weak, no surprise there. Techs an early leader but i want to show you how remarkable the Global Market situation is. I have to keep reminding people that we are essentially at multiyear historic highs, right across the globe here. The u. S. Is just near an historic high. Germany is down. Lets call it 2 off the historic high. Japan closed at a 15year high. And china, i have been watching a remarkable run in china. Im talking Mainland China now. I want to show you the shanghai stock market which closed up another 2 today. This is now nine Straight Days on the upside. Its got to be up 9 in the last six or seven days. This is just year to date on the shanghai exchange. I get asked a lot of questions about how to invest in china, particularly the Mainland China shares. Fortunately, theres many ways to do it now. A lot depends on what youre looking for. If you look at china a shares the big one is the ahsr. Thats 300 of the largest stocks listed, thats up almost 9 this year. But they have a companion. This is deutsche. Has a companion small cap one that consists of 500 Small Cap Stock companies, thats up 31 . Now, why is that happening here . Thats buzz chinese Small Cap Stocks are benefiting from all these statements by Chinese Government officials about stimulus policies in china. That tends to favor Small Cap Stock stocks. Just put up the ahsr thats the big one. And you can see you can see the bottom line is its been moving up straight, outperformance compared to the big cap ever since the chinese officials have been making statements about the stimulus. Lets move on talk about the u. S. Here in the United States. You know russell closed at an historic high on friday. The s p 500 were just there. 2108, 2109. The historic high is 2117. Were five points away from a closing historic high there. The dow, were about 120 points away. 18,288 that was on march 2nd so were 100 points away from a new high on the dow. This is closing high that im talking about. The big one and i think we could reach it this week the nasdaq. That was march 2000 we hit the historic high. It was 5,048. So we are 26 points away even though the nasdaq is down were 26 points away from a historic high. If you look at whats been moving this week, were close to the end of the month, strong dollar. Weak oil has really crushed the commodity group. Also the crummy economic numbers has put a lot of pressure on some of the high beta names. So Cyber Security and some of the tech names. Internet names arent really advancing at all this month. One high beta group you guys were talking about is the biotech group. And were seeing ibb, which is a market cap weighted index that theyre playing thats down today because of vertex. A great run. 6. 7 overall on the month. Theyre very heavily weighted. Thats a market cap weighted etf. I get asked that all the time. Guys, back to you. All right, bob, thank you very much. Now lets talk to Rick Santelli at the cme group. What else might be on your radar and focus today, sir . Well i think we have to continue to focus on whats going on in europe. Foreign Exchange Markets seem to be somewhat in control. And of course, it seems to be a continued weak dollar and equities seem to follow, at least the european equities for sure. If we look at a twoday of tens, were drifting down about ready to test 190. Open the chart up to december 1st. Havent seen a test to this level since the first few days of february, at least on a closing basis. If we look at whats going on in boons, a lot of sideways action on the twoday champltrt. Notice the low yield. 16 basis points and change. So sideways but sideways at historic low closing yields. Now, lets look at the Foreign Exchange side as i referenced earlier. A monthtodate chart. Weve had about six sessions since the low close in the euros, as you see on the middle of that chart. Even though it most likely according to traders is just getting even with the market for a trade that was long in the tooth, many still believe the next big trade is going to be a sale. Monitor that 110 level. Thats what they think is good resistance. If we want to look at the dax, which i also referenced today, one of the rare down sessions it has is it continues to forge ahead in a highway lane of course thats bedded with quantitative easing u. S. Style. Year to date on the hyg, could have picked the jnk. Theyre both etfs that expressed valuations for high yield. As you can see, it is not going straight up. It certainly has base from its down trend that was established early in the year. Brooip brian, back to you. Now lets take a closer look at oil prices. Bertha coombs at the nymex, where saudi arabia is in focus. Yeah saudi arabia if anyones expecting for saudi minister to blink, he is not ready to do that. To a certain extent, hes doubling down. Sort of saying look the market is going to take care of the prices here. We are not cutting back. In fact, saudi arabia is almost near report levels of production near 10 Million Barrels a day. Take that u. S. Producers. And we have seen here in the u. S. , even as the rig count has come down dramatically, production here as well continues to move higher as a lot of those shale rigs are very, very efficient. Nonetheless, with the dollar pulling back today, the euro now above 109, we do see a little bit of a breather and despite the fact that Energy Prices started off in the red overnight, theyve now moved modestly positive. Well see if that continues as far as metals. The dollar giving a little bit of a boost, particularly to the industrial metals. Copper getting a little bit of strength and also a bit for palladium as well. All right bertha thank you very much. Coming up one of private equities power players david ruben ruben rubenstein in a live interview. Also, rick tetzeli, coauthor of becoming steve jobs. See what he has to say about apples cofounder. Were going to be right back. It was only a matter of time. A new report revealing interest in the apple watch does appear to be growing. While the report found the consumers are hesitant to buy the first generation of the product, it says the apple watch will likely create a positive awareness of wearables. The report also found that traditional watches are here to stay as well, as most consumers see wearables as a complimentary product rather than a substitute. Perfect. Programming note coming up on squawk alley, saying the first book to get it right. I think its important to note that this is a Health Delivery system, the watch, that also tells time and its perfectly legitimate to believe that you have two arms, youll wear both. Right now, it sounds like what are you doing with both . If i can have something that is able to tell me some vitals about myself i am not going to be so concerned that i also have another watch. Eventually maybe just decide that you only need one watch. But i need this watch, and i need it badly. Ill tell you what if all these new wearable products start containing a heart rate monitor, i would love to go long any of the hospital stocks. Ill tell you why. We all go through periods of stress in our life. We have spikes, we have this and that. How many folks are going to start freaking out if their heart rate goes up. The holy grail is blood pressure. They dont have it down yet. Theyll get there. They dont have it yet. But when they get there, it will go directly to your cardiologist and it will save lives and that is why this device is beginning to be a win. Its going to be a win. Its going to be a big win. Up next it is stop trading with jim. And later itunes was barely in existence, and any streaming that was done on the internet was probably done illegally. So over the course of our show this whole new pathway to content delivery evolved. Well there you go. How advertising and media really have changed over the course of mad men. The series about ready to enter its final season. Squawk on the street will be right back. O. I am a fully automated Investment Advisory service. I can help you choose investments. Monitor them. And rebalance your portfolio. I can do a lot of what humans can. Except have a real conversation. If youd like that, you can always speak to someone at schwab. They arent algorithms. Try not to hold it against them. Say hello at intelligent. Schwab. Com theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. Now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. Its never been easier with so Many Networks all in one place. Get live tv whenever you want. The xfinity tv go app. Now with live tv on the go. Enjoy over wifi or on Verizon Wireless 4g lte. Plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new Verizon Wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. Visit comcast. Com wireless to learn more. Good morning. 6 54 a. M. Out in portland, oregon. Time now for stop trading. Ive got to tell you, nice biotech selloff. Nice big cap rally. Wanted to keep an eye on Sherwin Williams. Theyre saying listen, the raw cost benefits of lower oil are kind of in the stock. This is the kind of call youve got to be very careful of because if you look at the charts, again, i think a lot of analysts look at charts. Maybe not this fellow. But Sherwin Williams looks like it was rolling over. So does whirlpool. The companies that build that go into homes are not doing well right now in terms of their stocks. But i still think theyre having real good spripgngs. I look at owens corning, if it comes in thats what you should buy. Mad money tonight, what do you got . 3m is a company i used to idolized. And inge thulin doesnt do any tv. Such a smart man. So much stuff. I cannot wait to sit down with him. Cannot wait. A stock that has been hot over 12 months. Cooled off just a bit. D. They should go over that. Its a false worry for them. What is 3m . Theyre in everything. A lot of health care. A lot of technology. They do a lot of safety. They also have a lot of office supplies. Theyre in everything. And theyre in where they can be number one. And thats what were going to talk about. Number one in so many different things. A postit note as a reminder to watch the show tonight. Coming up break news on existing home sales in minutes. Plus, a live interview with David Rubenstein. Keep it here on cnbc. You can find a new frontier. Theres nothing stopping you and a lot helping you. Technology thats with you always. This is our promise. Its never been better to wander because wherever you go, youll find us doing everything we can, so you can. Its more than a network. Its how you stay connected. With centurylink as your trusted Technology Partner you get an industry leading Broadband Network and cloud and hosting services. Centurylink. Your link to whats next. At mfs, we believe in the power of active management. Every day, our teams collaborate around the world to actively uncover, discuss and debate investment opportunities. Which leads to better decisions for our clients. Its a uniquely collaborative approach you wont find anywhere else. Put our global active management expertise to work for you. Mfs. There is no expertise without collaboration. Can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver . Good morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Im sarah eisen with simon hobbs live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. Carl and david are off today. Just us. Lets take a look at the markets. We are seeing the first backtoback gains for the dow and the s p. The nasdaq would have been going for a sixth day in a row, but it actually is lower right now. Down about a quarter of a percent. Thats where our road map starts kicking off another week in the green. The dollar lower. Oil prices weakening. David rubenstein on the fed, oil prices and the strong dollar. What is a monday without news on apple. A new call on the watch. New price targets. And a new steve jobs biography. But first, we go to diana with some breaking news on existing homes. Existing home sales in february up 1. 2 to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4. 88 million units. Thats right along with expectations. A little lower, expecting 1. 7 . Sales up 4. 7 year over year but we have to remember last february was not a strong year. Even the realtors saying they would characterize this as under five million, and still underperforming. Median home price at 2,260 dollars. Theyre saying were seeing a reacceleration in pricing. Why . Heres your headline folks. Inventory. 1. 89 million homes for sale. Up slightly 1. 6 month to month. We should see an increase of about 6 more homes for sale on the market. Were seeing barely 1. 5 . So again, we only have a 4. 6month supply of homes for sale. Very unhealthy. Pushing Prices Higher and keeping folks from being able to find what they need therefore not listing what they need. Realtors are now saying that its all about inventory. Theyre pushing the builders to build more. Theyre not so concerned about that the underwater problem because they say if you cant sell your home you cant buy a home its all a wash if youre buying and selling. So again, it is a big inventory problem. Theyre hoping to see it bounce back. And theyre not blaming the weather for any of februarys weakness. They say it could be a slight thing in the northeast, but were going to get that back in march and april. So inventory, not weather. Thank you, diana with the breaking news on housing. In the meantime stocks relatively mixed. Weve lost about 20 points on the dow in the last few minutes after some rare backtoback gains for the s p and the dow. Last week the nasdaq trying for a sixday winning streak. Crude is also in the green after wiping out earlier lotszs searlier losses after saudis minister said the saudis will not bear the brunt. Joining us now, jp morgans chief u. S. Economist. David, lets talk about the markets first of all. It feels like the tenner has changed. Last week we got 2. 7 gain on the s p 500. Where do we go from here, do you think . The s p has had a rough start to the year primarily on the back of the u. S. Dollars strength. Its weighed on earnings. I think in every show thats what youre talking about with your ceos and guests. Weve gone from 122 in the euro to start the year down to 105 last week. We got a little reprieve. Janet came out telling us shes probably going to go earlier than people thought, but shes also going go slower than people thought. I think thats taken some of the pressure off the dollar. Its been a heck of a run and something weve been pushing on pretty hard here at jeffries for a while. But if the dollar can stabilize, i think the s p can do a bit better and its going to sort of really come down to the dollar for almost all asset classes. Its oil, its the dax, its the nikkei, its emerging markets. A stable dollar will actually generate some countertrend moves, at least for a little while. Okay, you lay out the groundwork. Is your advice for people to double down here . Look i think the opportunity here is really not in the u. S. Still. I think the opportunity is still in europe. I think the Bigger Picture trend is for a weaker euro excessive Monetary Policy easing coming out of europe and to some extent, also in japan. It doesnt mean we cant have some periodic perky periods. I guess i did say ppp there. But its not going to be the story of the year for us. Mike where are you now on the fed and the dollar . Right, so obviously last week was a dovish message. We still have a june call that were tenuously holding on to but we need strong data for that to play out. But if thats true, isnt the market getting ahead of itself . If you still believe theyre going to hike in june . And not really being that dovish, are they . Or is it about the rate rises further down the line . I think what we got last week is more suggestive of Something Like a september rate hike and i think the market has probably pushed back expectations a little bit. So were definitely on our heels. I think we need to see some good jobs numbers for a june hike to come through. But we definitely see them hiking sometime later this year. Not sure if its june or september. They lowered their growth forecast by about a quarter percentage point per year. We think a lot of that looks like its a dollar effect and about what we would have done as well. Were kind of neutral on the dollar here. Do you think that the fed successfully talked down the dollar . It is weakening off of a pretty weak week last week or is this an adjustment because obviously the fed is worried about it and then its going to go back up . I think it is a bit of a fed story recently. Were also pretty optimistic on places like europe where we think the data is looking better, in part because of what they referred to as excessive. Thats helping the european economy. We think that also helps to stabilize the currency here. What about the breakout weve had on the russell 2000 . From your take that perhaps the opportunities are elsewhere, i assume youre thinking thats kind of a defensive move rather than as some people would say a confirmation of the breadth of the rally . It could be, or it could be that people are getting nervous about the large multinationals that have much more currency exposure. Some of these big companies, 40 , 50 of what they bring home comes from something overseas and weve just seen the dollar index move you know move in a way it hasnt in many decades. In fact, back to the 80s in some cases. I hate to sort of sound like a broken clock. I really think were all trading the dollar here. Were going to watch the ecb, the bank of japan, and the fed, but really its beginning to depend on whether the dollar can stabilize as to whether the u. S. Equity market feels good for a little while. If we go back down to 103, 104 in parity, its going to be a little more sloppy trading in tus. Stan fisher, do you expect him to emphasize this message, that its not so much about when, but more about the pace of tightening and its not going to be aggressive . Yes another theme is uncertainty. Theyre uncertain about when theyre going to lift off, how fast theyre going to go and dont expect the fed to kind of hold our hands and tell us each step of the way whats going to happen six months down the line because they dont know. Can i ask you about oil. I was alarmed to read over the weekend that the etfs now control about a third of the active contracts in oil, partly because of this big rush in from Retail Investors who may not realize that it means that there are Higher Oil Prices further down the line. And they may have put themselves into a lossmaking situation. What is the view on oil, and can you call oil etfs at this stage . I think its really difficult to call oil etfs right now. I think there are reasons we could see a further decline in Energy Prices which would be a good thing for the economy, that has been a big support for the consumer in the last few quarters. But i think the situation is really fluid and i dont have a very strong view on the outlook ahead for oil. And perhaps it was unfair to ask you, but thank you. Michael feroli from jp morgan. David as well. Starbucks making a change to its race together campaign. Howard schultz telling employees that as previously planned, as of yesterday, theyre no longer being encouraged or required to write race together on cups. But schultz says the companys effort to promote discussions of racial issues is far from over. The Campaign Last week set off a wave of criticism on social media and everywhere. Heres Howard Schultz responding last week to our own jim cramer. Theres no part of this on any level thats about marketing or pr or trying to get more business. I dont think its going to hurt business. We certainly have not seen that in the last 24 hours. This is going to have a long tail to it. I think people trust the brand. I have faith that they wont put any customer in the situation where theyre being handed something they dont want to carry. It was a weird annual meeting, because they had a two for one stock split, and yet everyone was talking about this race campaign. I think youve got to admire Howard Schultz for still i mean can you imagine a major company, one of the big consumer package companies actually getting that through the Marketing Department . What alarmed me in the statement, to the staff, i know this hasnt been easy for any of you. So my concern would be that the backlash at the main street level was quite harsh. He also emphasized its not a pr exercise. Weve got another update in consumer news this morning. Announcing david fisher has been elected to the pepsico board of directors. Interesting in the face of all of this global macro uncertainty that they would bring on a former fed president. Interesting if he doubles down on the new york fed and his attempts to neutralize the power to a greater extent. That is gaining traction. All my worlds colliding there. Coming up, David Rubenstein on the u. S. Economy, when the fed will raise rates. Is he investing in the energy sector, and how much. Well talk to him about plenty as we look at the dow, up 54 points. Squawk on the street will be right back. I have a wandering eye. I mean, come on. National gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. I could choose you. Or i could choose her if i like her more. And i do. Oh, the silent treatment. Real mature. So you wanna get out of here . Go national. Go like a pro. President obama set to deliver the keynote address at the select usa Investment Summit this afternoon. Its part of a first ever governmentwise initiative to promote Foreign Investment into the United States and new data suggests theres some work to be done here on attracting foreign money. Government data released last week found that Foreign Direct Investment in the u. S. Fell nearly 60 last year. Joining us exclusively from the select usa summit David Rubenstein, cofounder and coceo of the carlyle group. Its good to see you again, david. My pleasure to be here. Do we have a problem in the United States attracting Foreign Investment . Its surprising given the fact that the u. S. Is outperforming when it comes to the Global Economy right now. I wouldnt say its a problem, but i think secretary of commerce has been a really good job of trying to make sure people realize that its important that we encourage people to invest here. I think as a result of her efforts, more money is coming into the United States and a result of many other things. Because the dollar is very strong now, it may discourage some companies from wanting to invest here and i think the point of this conference is to say that despite the strong dollar, there are many other good advantages to invest in the United States. Im so glad you brought up the dollar. Its a subject of much debate here on squawk on the street, and on a lot of our programs here on cnbc. Do you agree with the treasury secretary that its in our best interest to have a strong dollar . Is it really a badge of honor, or is it net negative for our economy . Every treasury secretary has to say, and they do want a strong dollar. If theyve said anything else, there would be a difficult situation. The dollar is stronger now than maybe some people would really prefer. I think the dollar has gone ahead of where some people probably thought it would be. Its risen 27 against the euro since last year. 15 this year. I think its a bit of a problem for some u. S. Companies that want to export because its made exports more difficult. And its maybe discouraged some people from wanting to invest in the United States. But overall, i think the dollar being strong is a good thing for the United States because people want strong currencies. And they want to know when they invest in a country if currency is going to remain strong. The dollar may get stronger. So some people may get a stronger dollar as a result of that and a benefit to them. What about you at carlisle . Where are you investing . How does the u. S. Look relative to places like europe . I know youve been bullish on japan in the past where the stimulus there is flowing and their equity markets at least have outperformed. Well carlyle invests all over the world, so we dont invest only in the United States. Probably about half of our investments are in the United States, but about half therefore around the rest of the world in more than 40 different countries. Everyone has its pluses and minuses. So we are still aggressively investing in the emerging markets, in china, and in latin america, among other places sub saharan africa. We do think the japanese economy will strengthen. Not that much competition in japan to us. Therefore we find that appealing as well. Generally, we think the dollar is not going to be a problem to invest around the world for us. We have a lot of funds that are in different currencies. And we are not really that worried about the strong dollar. Well that is an interesting statement, coming from you. What about the overall market volatility that weve seen across assets. Does it feel normal to you in a world where we have to position for higher Interest Rates, or is there something more worrisome going on with all these swings . I think people want to see what the Federal Reserve is really going to do. The Federal Reserve has said for quite some time theyre assessing the situation. Theyre going to be patient. Now theyre saying theyre not using the word patient anymore. But still, i think people would like to actually know what the fed is going to do and when they do it i think there will be less volatility. Theres just some uncertainty in the market. So whatever the fed decides to do with respect to increasing Interest Rates. When it happens, i think that will reduce volatility. You do. And what about the valuations were seeing . All of the major indices are trading right around record high. Does it seem frothy to you, or fair . Theres no doubt that prices are high by normal standards, and isnt that attractive for investors to find high prices. We do think they will probably recede a bit. And when the Interest Rates do go up in the United States probably will put some pressure take some pressure off of the high valuations. So i think valuations will come down a bit, but theres no doubt theyve been frothy a bit in the United States. Now, theyre discounted a bit in europe. We think the prices there are about 25 below comparable assets in the United States. And prices in some of the emerging markets are pretty attractive right now, too. So those equity markets have more room to run up . Well i think that the u. S. Market has run up a fair bit. I dont know that it can keep doing what its doing. I do think, therefore other markets are attractive. But in the end, the United States has many other strengths though. Its a god place tood place to invest. Just have to be very careful what price you pay. I know you talked a lot about the opportunities in energy specifically, and carlyle just closed a 2. 5 billion international fund. How much have you been investing . How aggressive have you been with these low valuations in energy and where are you investing here . Well we have about 9 billion total of dry powder available capital to invest in Energy Around the world. The fund youre referring to was an international only fund that we just closed and that is to invest outside the United States. And we do think that because oil prices are so low now, relatively speaking 50 below the peek the peak, we do think oil prices will come back and gas prices will go up as well. So generally we think if you can buy now at relatively low prices and hold on for a few years, youre going to do quite well. So were very bullish on the energy sector. Wed say probably there is no other sector in the world that were as bullish on as we are in energy. And where are you in terms of the investments in energy using that 9 billion and buying companies or distressed assets or distressed debt . Where are you in that process . Well, were buying a combination of things. We have a large presence in the United States through ngp, doing investments in energy oil, and gas in the United States production. We also have a large investment in europe and around the world in other types of energy areas. Storage, transmission, Energy Investment and production. So its many different types of Energy Investments that we do. Not just one type of Energy Investment. Got it. Do want to ask you about sort of the news of the day. Ted cruz the senator from texas, announcing on twitter that hes going to be running for president. I know you dont get affiliated with either party or weigh in but is this country in need of that much of a shakeup . You know, i think anybody that wants to run for president should be free to do so. Im not getting involved in it. And ill just watch it like everybody else and Pay Attention to my investments more than anything else. What do you think is the most important issue that businesses are looking for in this Campaign Cycle . I think what businesses want is the ability of the congress and the executive branch to work together. I think one of the issues that members of the Business Community would like to see is trade legislation passed by the congress in this session. I think that would do a great deal for the u. S. Economy. Particularly the Pacific Related trade agreement. If that could get done i think that would do a great deal for the u. S. Export market and also be very good for the countries that sign on to it. So were very focused on trade legislation. Thats probably the highest priority right now. All right, got it. Always valuable to hear from you, david. Thank you for joining us from the conference. David rubenstein, the ceo of carlyle. Coming up tomorrow, well be joined by commerce secretary Penny Pritzker on these issues. Shes a big part of the event with president obama signing trade deals, attracting u. S. Investment, and how were going to stay competitive. Lets take you live to virginia, where senator ted cruz after announcing that he will run in 2016 is now taking the stage. Lets take a listen. The daughter of irish and Italian Catholic family working class. Her uncle ran numbers in wilmington. She grew up with dozens of cousins because her mom was the second youngest of 17 kids. She had a difficult father. A man who drank far too much. And frankly, didnt think that women should be educated. And yet this young girl pretty and shy, was driven. Was bright. Was inquisitive. And she became the first person in her family ever to go to college. In 1956 my mom, eleanor, graduated from Rice University with a degree in math. And became a pioneering Computer Programmer in the 1950s and 1960s. [ applause ] lets bring in our chief washington correspondent john harwood. So the first to declare, john. Simon, ted cruz is jumping out ahead, casting himself as a full spectrum conservative. By announcing at liberty university, hes saying to evangelical christians who are a key part of the Republican Base that he is their champion. Many republicans, simon, are backing away from social issues because of changing views on samesex marriage and that sort of thing. Hes also casting himself as the most aggressive and decisive. Hes jumping in earlier. Everybody else is testing the waters exploring, that sort of legal status because theyre not willing to spend money on campaigns at this point. Jeb bush is raising tons of money. But ted cruz is trying to stick out that right flank and well see how many people chase him there, simon, and how many choose to distance themselves from cruz to make a point to the rest of the party that theyre more electable. You know, john a lot of people have made much of the fact that obviously the bushes are able to raise a lot of money. The clintons are able to raise a lot of money. Is the field still open or did the finances with the magnitude we expect trump all, do you think . I think its wide open simon. Finances are important. They dont govern everything. And if you have a small number of very wealthy donors even if you dont have broad financial support, the super pack system can let you stay in the game and make an impact beyond what in conventional terms your support would be. We saw that are wick santorum for example, in 2012. He had a couple of rich donors who managed to sustain him in the race a lot longer than expected. But look, weve got a ton of candidates. Youve got Jeb Bush Scott walker marco rubio as the sort of establishment first tier but youve got a whole range of other people. Chris christie in new jersey still intends to get in the race. Rick perry, former governor of texas. Youve got ted cruz. Youve got all sorts of people who are going to make an impact here. And we just dont know how this fields going to shake out over the next six months. But we do expect an accelerating beginning of the formal declarations. Rand paul is expected to go in about two week. Going to be a fascinating race. John, thank you. Ted cruz the first to declare for 2016. Coming up on the show, why adoption of the apple watch must be more gradual than expected and what it means for the watch industry. Callens proprietary apple watch survey next on cnbc. A new survey finds that although consumers are growing more interested in apples smart watch, that theyd also be interested in owning more than one watch. Take a listen to what the ceo of tag hoyer told us about the apple watch. I think the apple watch is perfectly designed and it looks like an apple watch. That is quite an achievement. You design a watch that looks like an apple watch. It was not easy. Imagine they would have done a round watch, it would not have looked like an apple watch. So all in all, i think its a brilliant design for apple. Even if for my own taste i prefer a little bit more sexy. But everybodys different. He did suggest it could hit the bottom end. Oliver is one of the analysts behind the survey. The main takeaway seems to be by fossil. Its got 10 upside here. Yes. We are excited, simon, about fossil. What i would say i agree, consumers care about sexiness. And i think traditional watches really will play a role in the future of smart watches. We think smart watches will be a 10 billion market over time. But traditional watches wearables, and the fashion component is really important. So i think traditional watches can play alongside an apple watch as well. I mean, i think to many people its blindingly obvious that theyre two very different functions. You might have an apple watch to control the music, the lighting the internet of everything around your home. Thats very different to a traditional watch, which might be a family heirloom. Two very different things. Yeah but i think traditional and luxury is about innovation. So we will see traditional makers playing in this market. Fossil has michael coors as well as tory burch and kate spade and theyre all interested in participating. I think the wearables theme will evolve. Consumers are worried about battery life theyre worried about pricing. As we look to version 2. 0 and ahead, those will be solutions that will be solved. So the market should get interesting. Oliver, do we have to talk about different geographic markets when it comes to demand for the apple watch . As i understand theres much more vibrant luxury demand for these kind of products over in china. Japan has a great luxury market. Is that where theyre going to be when it comes to buyers of this product . The longterm story for luxury goods is emerging markets exposure. I think that will continue to be true. If you think about apple, tim murk mercury is my partner here. The brand transitions to a real experiencial kind of brand. So i think its a balance of both. When we come back what will push the euro to hit parity with the dollar . Its a story having a huge effect on american business, on stocks, on other assets. Well talk to a Technical Analyst on currencies, next. So why pause to take a pill . And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . With cialis for daily use, you dont have to plan around either. Its the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. 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Service members. The pentagon calling it mostly a scare tactic but is encouraging anyone on that list to exercise caution. As of now, it has made no decision to pull them off duty or to provide personal protection. The governor of okinawa has ordered. Pans Defense Ministry to suspend all work at a site where a key u. S. Military base is to be relocated. He said a concrete block thrown into the sea for a drilling survey of the reef at the site may have damaged some of the coral there. Pepsico has elected Richard Fisher as a member of its board. Fisher served as president and ceo of the dallas fed from 2005 to 2015. And taylor swift is staying one step ahead of porn peddlers who want to use her name on the web. She bought a couple domain names. It comes a couple months before the names become available to the public. That is your cnbc news update this hour. Back the you guys. The dow and the s p are higher. The euro regaining losses after a wild week of swings. Currencies following that fed statement from janet yellen. The euro still down nearly 20 against the dollar in the past 12 months, leading investors to wonder if parity is still on the horizon. But with earnings of major u. S. Corporations taking a beating, is the dollar strengthening becoming a bigger threat . Joining us the head of Global Technical strategy mcneill curry. I cannot tell you how many people over this weekend asked me if the euro was going back to parity and are worried about their european vacations, and that euro going all the way down to 11. Now its back over 109. Do you see it happening . Yeah, definitely. I think the larger trend for the euro to the downside is still very much intact. What were seeing is a period of decent volatility. Last wednesdays move was the largest wed seen since 2009. The eurodollar short and the long position to become one of the bigger ones in financial markets. And the turn last week has led to a lot of people questioning that theme but i dont think its damaged the longer. Is that over with . Even if the dollar goes back to its strengthening ways is it still beginning to be double digit kind of moves . I think probably most of thats behind. Were looking for a move and then the parity. So if you do the math out from almost 140 down to 111, and 111 down to parity is you know obviously the meat of the move is behind it. But that doesnt mean its not going to be an impressive move. The trend we saw has been impressive, to say the least. But a move from 111 down to 110 down to parity is still a pretty big move. Changing the subject slightly, though connectedly to gold, why are you getting more bullish . We have been bullish gold since november of last year. I think the big thing is if you look at gold and other currencies, gold is still a pretty decent bull trend. The fact that gold and the dollar, what were really calling for is a breakdown in the correlation between gold and the dollar that really hasnt been intact. I mean, it was over the course of the past month or so, but since november of last year, thats broken down. If you think back to november and january, gold rallied and the u. S. Dollar rallied. So we think that that negative correlation is going to continue to wither in the short term. The setup for gold is still very constructive. But to be clear, what are the levels youre talking about . Its not huge moves, is it . Well, a move back up to the january highs, 1,300 or there abouts and right now were trading 1170 or there or so. Jeffrey told us in the beginning of the hour that it was all about currencies. That that is the lead right now. Do you see that as a lead for stocks throughout 2015 . In other words, the euro rebounds, stock rebounds. How close is that going to be . I think its beginning to be a driver and certainly you can look at the differentials between large caps and small caps or the s p and the russell 2000 where the russell has been outperforming the s p for some time. But i also wouldnt lose sight of Interest Rates as well. The rebound in the euro or the pullback in the dollar has also transpired against the backdrop of u. S. Treasury yields starting to roll back the downside and that u. S. German tenyear spread starting to narrow a little bit. Currency markets are a huge driver make no mistake about it. But Interest Rates markets are still pretty important as well. All right. Well watch it as we wait for the next fed meeting. Joining us from bank of america, as the nasdaq just looks positive here. The dow up 35. Lets send it over to dom chu for a market flash. Happy monday simon and sarah. Were watching shares of kansas city southern, which are moving in the opposite direction. It cut its fullyear Sales Outlook and gave weak guidance for the current quarter, citing sluggishness, and the Railroad Operator also says that guidance affects slower carload growth as well as the weakening of the mexican peso against the dollar. Railroad companies in focus, ksu certainly under some pressure in todays up market. Back over to you. Coming up on the program, an injection of glamour. Matthew weiner and jon hamm on the age of streaming, netflix, and the possibility of a mad men spinoff. Squawk on the street will be right back. Which leads to better decisions for our clients. Put our global active management expertise to work for you. Mfs. There is no expertise without collaboration. Friday night, buddy. You are gonna need a wingman. And my cash back keeps the party going. But my Airline Miles take it worldwide. [ male announcer ] it shouldnt be this hard. With creditcards. Com, its easy to search hundreds of cards and apply online. Creditcards. Com. E announcer ] your love for trading never stops. So open an account with schwab. And when a market move affects, say a Cloud Computing stock youre holding, we can help you decide what to do. With tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. So when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out. You can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. In new york state, were reinventing how we do business so businesses can reinvent the world. From pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping, biotech to clean energy. Whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started. Only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that Partner Companies with universities, and Venture Capital funding for high growth industries. See how new york can grow your business and create jobs. Visit ny. Gov business welcome back to squawk on the street. Lets get down to the cme group. Rick santellis got the santelli exchange. Good morning, rick. Good morning, sarah, and good morning to andy brenner, my first guest of the week. Thanks for taking the time. Thanks for having me again. Really appreciate it. All right, lets start at the first issue, and that is it seems as though were not going to see normalization of rates. Theres a lot of ways to describe it. Moving the goal post seems to be the conventional way to do it. Whats your take honor mallization . I had Richard Fisher on friday. On normalization . I had Richard Fisher on friday. Regardless of your thoughts about whether were hiccupping on the u. S. Economy or the european economy is hiccupping globally certainly zero seems to have a litany of potential problems down the road. Should we continue to stay there. Your thoughts . No question about it. Ive never seen the fed micromanage the economy to the extent they are. What really surprised us last week is theyre now the ones that come out and manage the dollar. I thought that was the treasurys responsibility. Micromanaging the economy, and we wonder if theyll ever get off zero Interest Rates. They will. We still look for two rate increases this year. And well see how the economic numbers come out over the next six or eight weeks, to see how soon they will come. I want to caution viewers, not necessarily something that will happen tomorrow, next week, or next month, but the notion of global liquidity, whether its studying the october 15th flash crash, and treasuries are the unbelievable volatility in Foreign Exchange or all the growth in etfs. What do you say on the liquidity topic . Rick, the one thing that keeps me up at night is not the bubbles that are being created in stocks and high yield and elsewhere. Its the lack of liquidity. And what i see on a daytoday basis is when you go and try to get something done you know if youre in treasuries youll still get it done, but its much thinner than it used to be. But try to get that done in corporates or emerging markets or high yields and ive never seen it as bad. The position limits that dealers take and the capital that they put towards secondary markets right now, its the smallest ive ever seen. Its terrible. Unreal. Last topic. It wasnt that long ago that this country believed that you really shouldnt export food you should feed your people first. But the notion of how we export it and what its done to the capacity of our farming business thats why we have nonfarm productivity. Its off the charts. What about oil . What about energy . It seems as though the saudis are trying to price frackers out of business. Are we fighting with one hand tied behind our back and if we are, why . Im not sure that were not fighting with two hands behind our back. With regulations that the federal government has imposed with exporting oil and the infrastructure about exporting, i mean why cant we help out our friends in europe . Why do they have to be dependent upon russia for their oil . Lets get something going. Lets start exporting, and lets start exporting now. We have the capacity. We have the production. Lets export it and take in those hardearned dollars. All right. Andy i completely agree. I guess were beginning to have to continue to press that button. Now lets go back to hobbs. Simon hobbs. Two major points well made rick. Thank you. In the meantime, the final season of mad men premieres in less than two weeks, april 5. Kayla sat down with the shows top names sunday afternoon. It was a very fun day. A very interesting conversation with the cast of mad men. The final installment is called the end of an era. Very aptly titled. It could apply to the shows impressive run on the air. Nearly eight years, four Golden Globes and 15 emmy including best drama four years in a row. I sat down with the shows writer, creator, and executive producer matthew winereiner to talk about making a blockbuster show as the content business is being turned upside down. When we went on the air, there was no streaming, no iphone, no ipad, no twitter, and just if youre looking at oh im looking at the 60s and they started in 1960 and its 1969 that must have been an incredible time of change. Im like were in the middle of an incredible time of change. What has the introduction of streaming a and social media done to your business . How would it be different if you were pitching mad men today . I think it was part of the idea and follows from the sopranos that you did not have to have your product appeal to the entire audience, mass audience to succeed financially. That getting a sector of it there were enough people in the United States to financially support it. So there was a lot of more diverse and specific and language specific entertainment. Now that you have streaming, its opened it up. There are a lot more jobs for people like me. Theres a lot more entertainment with immediacy for people like me. For a long time mad men was a sunday night phenomenon. About three years ago, netflix came into the picture. What did that do for your audience . Did it give it a second life . You cant look at netflix and not say its positive to have a secondary market the same way that syndication was. A whole bunch of people in a continuing story line who werent there at the beginning get to catch up and we definitely got a boost in terms of people who were like i never saw that but maybe ill see that. Better call saul a spinoff of the blowout success of breaking bad. Will we see a spinoff of mad men . Is that in the cards . That is not in the cards. Why not . Its just not what i wanted to do. Different strokes. We have 92 hours of the show and thats a lot more than there were of breaking bad. And as far as im concerned, the last three seasons could be a spinoff. You dont want to overstay your welcome. And i dont think saul is or breaking bad is in any way. Its just a different kind of story. I didnt want to exhaust the machinery that tells the story. As much as i love the idea that people are attached to the characters, something for mad men and leaving it the way. A lot of the actors disagreed and said we wish there were an opportunity for a spinoff, but without Matthew Weiner behind it that idea was very shortlived. We talked about the sunday night phenomenon and about the instruction of streaming. Mad men one of the very first shows to be syndicated on syndicated on netflix. He said it makes him sad that madmen or any show with a set time and date is not the water cooler phenomenon or it doesnt have the Community Around it. Doesnt everybody put their big shows out on sunday night . It used to be though. People would wait around for it. 10 00 p. M. Monday morning, they would talk about it around the water cooler. He loved that. Even though netflix opened up a new audience the fact that it is shifting to someone like him is a little bit sad. I stopped watching it. You took the draper divorce pretty hard. I liked it better when they were married. You interviewed her. We did. John ham. Yes. We had some interesting conversations. Well have more from the conversation with john hamm in squawk alley. He has some interesting thoughts about the business of streaming and what it does for an actor. Youll want to hear what he has to say. Better looking in person or on the screen. Listen to you two. For goodness sakes. He is a very good looking man in general. Spoken like a real journalist. Coming up, it is the steve jobs buyingfy that has apple employees tweeting. The author will be joining squawk alley live in just a few minutes. Revolutionary by every standard. And that became our passion. To always build Something Better airplanes that fly cleaner and farther on less fuel. That redefine comfort and connect the world like never before. After all, you cant turn dreams into airplanes unless your passion for innovation is nonstop. Now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. Its never been easier with so Many Networks all in one place. Get live tv whenever you want. The xfinity tv go app. Now with live tv on the go. Enjoy over wifi or on Verizon Wireless 4g lte. Plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new Verizon Wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. Visit comcast. Com wireless to learn more. So many questions for so many about the oil industry at the moment. The price of crude and gasoline moving forward. We are joined now from the annual wheel conference in new orleans where a lot of the Major Players are presenting to investors this week. Take it away jackie. Good morning to you simon. Thats exactly right. Some of the main themes coming out of these presentations and my conversations with about the billions of dollars in Energy Investments that are sitting on the sidelines right now. These are allocations that these investors have. Theyre here today to figure out not only when to play them but how to play them. Also what were talking about here visibility right now, very limited. Not necessarily sure investors are going to get the clarity they need. And a lot of companies are saying there could be Downside Pressure to oil prices for the next two to three months. Specifically, we heard from the schlumberger ceo. He was expecting 10 or 15 down from where it was last year. He also was saying even though rig counts are down 45 , we probably are not going to see production declines until 2016. So youll see a little bit of a drop in the second half of the year and flattening Oil Production here in the United States but no drop until next year. Also, he admitted its difficult to operate in this environment when his customers are making drastic and unpredictable cuts. Were going to have more headlines out of the conference. Back to you. Valuable to get those comments from some of the energy giants. Thank you for now. Over to john forthwith a look at whats coming up next. We have one of the authors of the new book becoming steve jobs. Were going to talk about why theyre more appreciative of this book. Also meerkat. Were going to look at what it does next. And john hamm talks about the impact of netflix and amazon. All that and more coming up on squawk alley. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Its more than the cloud. Its multilayered security and flexibility. With centurylink you get advanced Technology Solutions. Including cloud and hosting services all from a trusted it partner. Centurylink. Your link to whats next. I love my mileageplus® explorer card. Were saving our united miles. For a trip to hawaii. We love free checked bags. Ive saved 75 in checked bag fees. No foreign transaction fees means real savings. We can go to any country and spend money the way we would in the u. S. One of the best things about priority boarding is you can just get on the plane and relax. I put everything on the explorer card. I really want my united miles. Good monday morning. It is 4 00 p. M. In sweden. Also 11 00 here on wall street and squawk alley is live. Good monday morning. Joining us is ed lee, managing editor at reed code who joins us here and good monday to you. To you guys too. With us as always john fort. Lets start with apple. A new report says interest in the apple watch continues to grow. It does say consumers are his to buy the first generation of the watch, but the device itself will create a quote, positive awareness of wearables. They think the company is probably working on a car. He doesnt know for sure. But he does say with selfdriving cars, this is the future and it might