Transcripts For CNN Fareed Zakaria GPS 20240707

Phase of this war on ukraine. Just today, President Putin has made overt Nuclear Threats against europe. I talk with the president of finland, who knows putin well. I also sat down with the president of south korea to ask about the threat from his neighbor to the north, who just declared itself a nuclear state. Also, hijabs burned, protests rage and chants of death to the dictator ring out in iran after a woman dies in Police Custody there. What will come of the demonstrations . I will ask an expert. But first, heres my take. Lets not play down what has happened this week. The leader of the Worlds Largest Nuclear Power publicly threatened to use Nuclear Weapons. In an address in moscow on wednesday, vladamir putin declared that russia would use all Weapons Systems available to us to defend the country. He emphasized it. This is not a bluff. It might be. Putins threat is an addon of traditional soviet doctrine. Now they contemplate scenarios which it could use Nuclear Weapons. But putin nose that the west has powerful Nuclear Weapons of its own and that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction has prevented any power from deploying them since 1945. These kinds of threats must ramp up china and india. But what does it tell us that putin decided to make his statement anyway . That the war is going very badly for him. This month, Ukrainian Forces routed the russian army in a stunning series of victories. Putins First Response was to open a new ferris wheel in moscow, urging people to relax and enjoy life. A few days later, realizing that the Relax Strategy was not working, he scheduled a National Television address during primetime, and then simply didnt show up. He did give the address the next morning, using the occasion to issue his nuclear threat. To understand how badly the ukrainian war has gone from putins point of view, consider his decision to announce a partial mobilization. Russia did not mobilize its population for the nineyear war in afghanistan. Moscow has mobilized its citizenry for war twice since 1914. First on the eve of world war i. And then to defend against the invasion of the country by adolf hitler and germany in 1941. For putin in particular, this is a bitter pill. His basic Social Contract with the russian people has been, stay out of politics, and i will give you a stable, peaceful country in which you can make a decent living. This mobilization is the first time he has had to violate that contract. And for the first time in his 22year reign, he faces opposition from both the right and the left. At least 1,300 War Protestors have been arrested since putins announcement. But more ominously, right wing nationalists are openly criticizing the government for not prosecuting this war with greater zeal, manpower and firepower. When a war goes badly, people look for someone to blame. In a dictatorship so centralized, its hard to see whom to fault other than putin himself. Ctns all raise the ante. In addition to teaeapons and mobilizing russians, hes signaled that four regions of ukraine will soon become part of russia. Crimea was incorporated by moscow in 2014. This will make it harder to negotiate a peace deal, because under russian law, these areas would then be part of russian territory. Annexation makes it easier to claim that ukrainian attacks on those territories are not part of a contested conflict but attack on russia itself, requiring any and all means to respond. Of course, this will not deter the ukrainians. They know that russia has invaded their lands, destroyed their cities, tortured their people, and killed and wounded tens of thousands. They will fight to regain their country. And putins threats are not going to stop the west from aiding and arming ukraine. So what is putins game . And where does he go from here . No one knows, including perhaps putin himself. He has given some signals to indias president and president erdogan from turkey that he wants to negotiate. But the russian leader seems to be playing a highstakes game, which he knows that the outcome could be catastrophic. Its still hard to see how even if he loses this war, anyone in moscow could dislodge him. More than perhaps any major nation in the world, russia is now ruled by one man. There are no institutions, no central committee, no monarchy, nothing. The largest country in the world with the most Nuclear Weapons, is ruled by one man. It is as he once described it, a vertical of power. And that vertical looks more unstable than ever. All of this suggests that we have entered one of the most dangerous periods in International Affairs in our lifetimes. Go to cnn. Com fareed for a link to my the Washington Post column this week, and lets get started. On tuesday, finlands invasion of ukraine, calling it a cruel and unprovoked war, and a blatant violation of the charter of the United Nations. He called on u. N. Members not to accept, condone or normalize such aggression. And this was all before putins nuclear comments. His nation shares an 800mile border with russia, and the war in ukraine triggered the finns to apply for nato membership in may alongside sweden. I want to become to the program the president of finland. Thank you for joining us. Thank you very much, sir. Tell us what you think putin is going to do now. You have met him so many times. He does appear to be cornered in some ways. He does appear to be becoming more reckless with these Nuclear Threats. Tell us what your analysis of his State Of Mind is. I see he is actually in poker terms, he has put all in, and he is a fighter. So it is very difficult to see him accepting any kind of defeat. That surely makes the situation very crucial. You said i remember in early february, before the russian invasion, that something you sensed had changed about putin, that he used to be very careful, incremental, calculating, but that he was he was behaving in a much more aggressive fashion. Just in your conversations, what do you think happened . Everyone is perplexed by this. Everyone thought putin was yes, he may be a nasty guy, but it was a pattern of carefulness. And he seems to have become very reckless. What do you think has happened . If we go years back, we see or at least i have seen some kind of development in his thinking. Hes frustrated, because of the situation in ukraine after 2014. And then progressively, i have felt that his frustration is growing. Very obviously, he just decided to get this thing somehow, or at least try to solve it. Do you think that there is a possibility that he will expand his war aims . People talk about moldova, obviously, you must be you have to be careful watching. You have a long border with russia. We havent seen any sign in finland. Actually, its more calm than for years. So i think that he has enough now headache in ukraine and it doesnt seem very obvious that he could make any maneuvers elsewhere. Not now, and not in the nearby future. Do you think that some of putins change may have come about because of the isolation of covid, that he was only listening to a small group of advisers . Because you saw him many times before that. Do you sense that period of two years of total isolation has played a part here . Yeah. I met him last time approximately a year ago, last october. And yes, it seems that hes quite alone. There werent very many people, so he has been careful with covid and maybe thats why the people surrounding him are not that many anymore. And i actually dont know who are nearby. Stay with us. When we come back, im going to ask the president this question winter is coming. 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Its often thought that europeans are used to lets say, to a life that we try to better and better. First, we are very weak to face difficulties. But i would say that ukrainians gave an excellent example that there is stamina amongst people when difficulties come. And difficulties which we are facing are minor if compared to those ukrainians are meeting. So i believe that we european people can take it. And have resilience. Specifically, one of the big issues that people worry about is italy. Italian elections, assuming Madame Maloney comes to power. This is a threeparty coalition. Two of the parties have been openly prorussian. Is that likely to change the dynamic if the italians go into the European Council and say, you know, we dont want our as some of the parties have been saying we dont want to have to pay for this. We dont want Italian Households to bear the brunt of this war with russia. No, i actually dont believe that would be a problem. The other issue is that italy and the economy is not in very good shape at the moment. That might raise questions and discussions on some part of solidarity, financial solidarity in europe. I guess that might be even bigger or real problem. Are you saying that the italians will need money from the European Union so they are unlikely to try to break ranks . I wouldnt say that so directly, but nevertheless, their finances are not in very good shape. We have to keep that in mind, too. Let me finally ask you sort of where we began, which is where Do We Go From Here . There are people who think you just need to show as much military force, push the russians back, and then there is another school that says you need to start searching for some diplomatic solution. The ukrainians, as you know, are very opposed to that right now. What would your advice be to the west . I am a man of peace, and i think that every possible deed looking for peace is important. Thats why i strongly support president macron and olaf shotz, keeping the idea open to discuss with the kremlin. Also, i have to admit that at the moment, i dont see so very much possibilities to reach the peace. Given your long relationship with vladamir putin, would you be willing to reach out and meet with him and try to see if there is a deal to be had . Hmm, well, i havent had any contact with him, but if the situation would be such that we find the possibility of getting something positive done, i would. Surely after discussing with president zelenskyy also. But ive not been asked to do, and i dont see at the moment any possibilities to have anything positive done. Mr. President , pleasure to have you on. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Next on gps, another world leader in another dangerous neighborhood. I talk to the president of south korea about china, taiwan, north korea, when we come back. But, at upwork, we found her. 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Kim jongun said his country would never give up its nukes and rejected any negotiations on denuclearization. The new law also allows pyongyang to make a Preemptive Nuclear strike in the event of an imminent threat. I had the opportunity to talk to the man who leads the nation on the other side of the dmz, the demilitarized zone, president yoon sukyeol. Hes been on the job only a few months and is new to being a politician, but he had some very interesting things to say. President yoon, pleasure to have you on the program. It is my pleasure as well, fareed. Mr. President , there are so many crises Around The World. Ukraine, the issues surrounding taiwan, for example. It seems that we may have forgotten about the issue of north korea. So i want to ask you to tell us from your perspective, what is what is happening in north korea right now . Is the threat or the danger from north korea increasing today . Translator i am aware that more attention is being put on ukraine because a real act of aggression is taking place, a real war is taking place in ukraine. So i understand that more attention is going there. And with respect to taiwan, china is increasing its tensions. For example, sending aircraft above the territory of the taiwan strait. However, at least for south korea, the most imminent threat is north Koreas Nuclear missile threat. Situation. However, as the Head Of State of my country, as well as the korean military, i would like to note that our alliance with the United States is expanding its horizons to economic fields, as well as cuttingedge technologies. Therefore, we will Work Together in order to contribute to global peace and stability, as well as expanding freedom to the worlds citizens. When nancy pelosi came to the region, after visiting taiwan, she visited south korea and you did not meet with her personally. You said you were on vacation. This is south koreas closest ally, its only military ally. It seemed to many people that this was an odd or unusual decision for you to make, and that it was really not about a vacation, it was that you were trying to be nice to china. How do you respond to that . Translator with respect to her visit during my vacation, it was upon invitation of the speaker of the Korean National assembly, and on this occasion, there might be some different opinions about whether the president should meet her, even though hes on vacation. I decided to have a pleasant and fruitful phone call, not only with Speaker Pelosi, but six other members of the house of representatives. And we had a really productive and friendly conversation. And Speaker Pelosi also understood my situation, that i was on vacation, and she respected it as well. And with respect to my position on the issue of the taiwan strait, i have always been clear on my position. And whenever and wherever im asked about this issue, i will always provide a consistent answer. So just to be clear, your position on this issue, if china were to attack taiwan, do you support the United States coming to taiwans Military Defense . Translator in the case of Military Conflict around taiwan, there would be increased possibility of north korean provocation. Therefore, in that case, the top priority for korea and the u. S. Korean Alliance would be based on a robust defense posture. We must deal with the north korean threat first. When you say we must deal with it first, are you saying that you would ask the United States to first fulfill its obligations toward south korea before getting involved in taiwan . Translator it wouldnt be appropriate to reply about a u. S. Priority. Because both the Korean Peninsula and taiwan are very important to the u. S. And are to be defended by the u. S. With allies and partners. So both issues have significant importance. President yoon, you have come to politics in an unusual way in south korea. You are not a politician. In fact, i think you announced that you were going to run for president eight months before you became president. You entered politics eight months before you became president. Is this part of this wave of people who are outside of the establishment, outside of politics, Around The World, who are finding their way into politics because people have lost faith in Political Institutions Around The World . What do you think explains your success . Translator before getting to the point, let me tell you about my story. And why i placed so much importance on our alliance with the United States. Whenever i ask a scientist, they say we must cooperate with america because they have the most Technological Prowess in the world. And if i ask a soldier, they say the United States has overwhelming capability in terms of their military power. We have much to learn from the United States system to further advance our society and economy. As well as our politics. As a lawyer, why did i decide to enter the world of politics . Because it is to reestablish these values of the rule of law, freedom, the market economy, and democracy. Because many people lost faith in these universal values. Mr. President , thank you so much for joining us. Next on gps, after a young woman died in Police Custody in iran, angry protests are popping up across the nation. Where will the protests lead this time . Ill be back in a moment. Ever wonder what everyones doing on their phones . Theyre investing with merrill. Think miss allen is texting for backup . No shes totally in charge. Of her portfolio and daniel g. Shes building a greener future and hes. Running a pretend restaurant. And phil . Phil has questions, but none of them are about his portfolio. 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In dozens of cities across iran, protestors, led by women, are angrily rising up against the government. At least 1200 people have been arrested, and dozens reportedly killed in the clashes so far. The igniting incident was the death of masha amini, after she was taken to a Reeducation Center by the Morality Police because she allegedly was not wearing her hijab correctly. The Regime Response to the protest has been ever more oppression, arrests, deaths and internet blackouts. So can the government weather this unrest as it did in 2009 and 2019 . Joining me now is our friend, kareem, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for international peace. And alleges always a superb iran watcher. So explain at one level for most people, why are they still arresting thousands of women for the hijab . Clearly, alienating women. What is the rationale . Fareed, were now in the 43rd year of the Iranian Regime after the 1979 revolution. I think this is a reminder that Islamic Republic of iran is incapable of reforming and incapable of changing its ideology. Theres three idealogical pillars left of this revolution, death to america, death to israel, and a mandatory hijab for women compulsory. And the hijab is real the flag of the Islamic Republic, a symbol of its islamic piety, and its really the weakest of these three pillars. Not even irans antiimperial allies are going to support the idea that women should be beaten for showing too much hair. You tweeted about this. I think its really interesting. What the regime has become and maybe in its origin always was, a strong patriarchal almost, there was a sort of men against women. It is also turned into a regime of old people against young people, right . Absolutely. You look at the institutions ruling iran, and theyre all engineer rat rick, old men. The Supreme Leader is 83 years old. If you look at the institutions that hes empowered and in turn empower him, theyre all led by geriatrics men. One is 95 years old, head of two powerful institutions in iran. This is one of the tragedies. When you look at the images of the protestors who died, young, modern women with their lives ahead of them. And you look at the photos of regime officials, they have one foot in the grave. So the crucial question becomes, the regime is cracking down hard. So far in the past, these crackdowns have worked, sad to say, even the green revolution. Will the crackdown work this time . I think what we have to watch are the internal fissures within the regime. I love in iran. I dont doubt there is appetite for fundamental change within society. That i dont doubt, but for popular uprisings to succeed, you need not only pressure below but divisions at the top. So will we start to see fissures within the regime, within the security forces, witness the Revolutionary Guard . So far we havent seen that. Theres an interesting caveat, which is the Uncertain Health of the 83yearold Supreme Leader, and what the Revolutionary Guards are thinking about that. If he dies, there has to be a kind of election among an elite group of mulahs. Do we know who is likely people think that the current president could be elevated to that position, and hes another super hardliner. Yes. I think when he dies, what is likely to happen is a raul castro type situation. A weak leader who replaces a powerful leader. My hope is that iran evolves into denmark, but ive learned not to conflate hope and analysis. What can happen after that is an iranian putin type figure, someone from the security or military establishment, who throws out shiite nationalism and replaces it with iranian nationalism. I hope im wrong about that. But i could see things evolving like that. One of the reasons thats likely is the thing that one has to realize is, and theres no good answer here, but american sanctions and super sanctions have massively empowered the security services, the Revolutionary Guard, these people that are head of the smuggling operation, everything comes in through them. So given this dilemma, which is dealing with the terrible regime, on the other hand the sanctions do empower, castro used to say if the americans were to relax the sanctions, i would do something to force them to reimpose them, because thats what keeps me going. What should the u. S. Do . The challenge of u. S. Policy towards iran is on one hand youre trying to prevent the regime from becoming like north korea and trying to help the society become like south korea. To counter their nuclear and regional ambitions, you have to use pressure. If you dont want to use military pressure, that requires economic sanctions and isolation. But in a way that does empower these isolationists within the regime. So we have to figure out, how do we counter the regional and night nuclear ambitions, but at the same time have a strategy which is trying to champion the cause of change in iran. Then we would try to open up contacts with society, we thought that in a Sense Capitalism and commerce were the assets that would break these dictators. Possible . I think we at least have to think intelligently about it within the u. S. Government. Up until now, the biden administrations sole strategy has been to revive the nuclear deal that donald trump exited. Im confident with the u. S. Government and people like elon musk and our great minds in silicon valley, we can think about constructive, creative ways about championing the cause of change in a country, which the vast majority of the people do want change. Kareem, its always so insightful. Youre just terrific. Thank you for having me, fareed. Next on gps, prepare to be inspired by three people who want to change the world. Jose andres the achieve, lawyer even, and the Prime Minister of barbados, with three big ideas, when we come back. Unlike pepcid, which stops working after 9. 24 hour protection. Prilosec otc one pill, 24 hours, zero heartburn. You dont know how much pressure you put on your septic system. But ridx does. In a 21 month study, scientists proved that rid x reduces up to 20 of waste build up every month. Take the pressure off with ridx. Medium latte, halfcaff, no foam. Quite the personalized order. I know what i like. Ive been meaning to ask you, carl. Does your firm offer personalized Index Investing . Hmm . So i can remove a stock that doesnt align with my goals. Im a broker, not a barista. What about managing gains and losses to be more Tax Efficient . Not a wizard either. Looks like schwab Personalized Indexing can. Schwaaab learn more about Personalized Indexing at schwab today. 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Youll also hear from chef jose andreas, as well as the Prime Minister of barbados, whose speech on Climate Change last years u. N. General assembly went viral. They all had big ideas that would make a big difference. So in the case of chicago, arne duncan, after he came out of the obama administration, returned to chicago and wanted to work in deep community, in south and west side of chicago. When he was the head of Chicago Public schools, he witnessed firsthand what it was like to have the devastating effects of gun violence in communities. So we started working block by block with individuals who were most at risk of gun violence, either as the perpetrator or the victim. We have an 18month program where we hire individuals. We started with men, we now work with men and women, and we have a full, wholistic program that includes high school diploma, includes social and emotional support, includes group support, includes coaching and mentoring, and job skills and training. This is actually the first chance that they have accessed this kind of opportunity. First chance that anyone outside of the gangs was hiring. The first chance that anyone actually cared enough to see individuals and support each other. The results are indisputable. So both the city and the state have now matched our philanthropic funding and are taking it to scale. Which is a great [ applause ] jose, let me ask you about the biggest food crisis in the world right now, which stems from the russian invasion of ukraine. What can be done about that, and what is being done about it . Do you think its enough . No, i dont think were doing enough. But i want to make sure im very clear, ukraine has plenty of food to feed ukraine. People are going to be asking me they support the efforts of the world Central Kitchen. Why are you cooking and feeding ukraine . Its not a problem of lack of food. Its a problem of a country that is at war, and a problem of logistics. What we did was organize the logistics to make sure nobody would be left without food. World Central Kitchen last week, we reached 160 million meals, produced by 550 restaurants. Almost between 1. 5 million to 2 million meals delivered a day. Around 7,500 places. I want to take this moment to say we got two cooks that were sleeping in a place south of kharkiv and a missile hit the community center. Many people died and two of our volunteer cooks died in that missile. When you see what i saw in bucha, when you see what i saw in irpin, everybody if youre not speaking loud because you have social media, that this war, and no war makes any sense, and that President Putin of russia right now, they have been killing for the last 200 days, children and women and elderly. No near any military location. They are killing people that could be you or i. This war must end yesterday, and we all need to speak louder about it. [ applause ] Prime Minister, i wanted you to close for us by reminding us in a sense why bill and Hillary Clinton restarted cgi, because of the urgency of the of the threats and the sometimes lack of progress. You know, when the u. N. Set up its millennial grows, poverty was cut enormously. And then we faced a series of challenges. And now were in a very different place where theres a lot of work to do. I know you talked to the u. N. General assembly this morning about this. Tell us about that. The bottom line is that the world looks too much like it did 100 years ago. But we should know better, because we have the experience of 100 years ago. We have educated people and we have a United Nations that is supposed to make a difference. Regrettably, there are few countries for whom Political Action, from whom Political Action is needed. We need it to reform the International Financial architecture. We need it to reform the u. N. We saw the worst aspect of it when russia cheered the u. N. The month it went into ukraine. You have a United Nations that still looks like an imperial order. Until we recognize that when that body was formed, there were only 50 Nation States in the world. Today, there are over 193. And we need to ensure that there is greater equity. How do you have a g20 that leaves out the African Union that has 1. 4 billion people. [ applause ] we have to level out the Playing Field and give people an opportunity to make a difference. [ applause ] i want to thank the Prime Minister, jose andres, Laurene Powell jobs, the Clinton Global Initiative for that discussion. And thank you to our viewers for being part of my program this week. I will see you next week. Siness. dock worker right on time. vo make it even smarter. We call this enterprise intelligence. Tech when you have auto glass damage. Choose safelite. We can come to you and replace your windshield. Grandkid here you go tech wow, thank you customer and grandkids bye tech bye dont wait, schedule now. 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And im going to make sure donald trump is not the nominee, and if he is the nominee, i wont be a republican. Okay. Congresswoman liz cheney taking a stand saying shell do whatever it takes to keep trump and other election deniers out of office including campaigning with