cnn political commentator, maria cardona, ross douthat and sheera senner. i want to start with you. this is really your bread and butter. a month ago we were talking about do the democrats really have a chance to take over the house and now today, sorry about the peter brady thing, now today we're sitting here thinking do republicans have a chance of taking over the senate. how big of a shift are we dealing with here? >> yeah, there has certainly been a large shift but let's remember, there is still almost a year to go until the election and if poll numbers can flip this quickly in a month, they can flip even more quickly many times between now and november 2014. that said, yes, there certainly has been a shift, especially in the senate, where republicans need to pick up a net of six seats to gain control of that chamber, and seven senators very vulnerable democratic senators are up for re-election in states that obama lost in 2012. that is not good math, especially if the national landscape is shifting towards republicans. >> maria, you run in these