Arrrrrr rrr look, kyle, cartman is totally miserable, even more miserable than he was before, because hes had his dream and lost it. Its not fair its not fair. I wanna die i wanna die you are up there. Captioning by captionmax www. Captionmax. Com from Comedy Centrals world news headquarters in new york, this is daily show with trevor noah. cheers and applause captioning sponsored by Comedy Central trevor thank you so much. Welcome to the daily show. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Im trevor noah. My guest tonight from fivethirtyeight. Com, nate silver is here, everybody. Lets get straight into it with an international controversy. The queen of england, known mostly for her hat collection and her 1975 hit single Bohemian Rhapsody yesterday got into a spot the trouble. We begin with a private conversation at a garden party thats causing an international commotion. Talk about an embarrassing international incident, Queen Elizabeth caught on camera criticizing the chinese government. Trevor oooh i knew she was going to snap one day. Come, shes been bottling that up inside for 90 years. When the queen blows up, its all going to come out like bleep happened ages ago. bleep , china. You can kiss my wrinkley royal ass, and you, too, churchill, you fat bastard. I dont want to be the queen. I want to date boys. So what does the queen say. Trevor thats it . She called the chinese rude . Thats not the queen being scandalous. Thats just the queen being british. laughter every british person thinks that everyone else is rude. It doesnt matter how polite you are. You could throw your coat over a rain puddle for them, and stale theyd be like, really . A Leather Jacket . Evidently im not worth the fur. So rude. , of course, the idea of a world leader standing in front of a microphone and hurling insults at people is absolutely something we have to get used to. laughter thanks to the fakd that america is growing ever closing to electing a halfmelted pushpop. In fact, since the rise of trump, there has been at its peak at its peak a 1,150 spike in americans goog ling, how i can move to canada . Yes, this is a real thing which im sure canadians are loving. I bet theyre like, sure, were all slippery hosers until you run into trouble, eh . Whats that about . And you realize you cant just move to canada. Canada actually has requirements to immigrate. They want people with ph. D. Es or people who are Business Owners or people who are stanley cups. You cant just move to canada. Look, if youre really trying to escape a mad man im not sure moving to canada gives you enough distance from a trump presidency. Like if Jeffrey Dahmer was your roommate, moving next door wouldnt be much better. We escaped. Whats going on over there . Whats he cooking . Smells good. Audience oooh trevor look the notion of escaping a trumppock lisp by leaving america is dumb because many of the forces that gave rise to donald trump is being felt all over the world. Immigration pressures, terrorism, a struggling middle class. These are all the indgreetients necessary fair trump outbreak, and theyre learning this in the netherlandss. Tempers flare in the netherlandss as protesters fight plans by officials hohouse european migrants in their home town. Heres the antiislam Freedom Party and hes no stranger to controversy. He compared islam to nazism and called on a ban of the koran. Trevor dear lord. Is it me, or does that look like the son that trump has . laughter applause that is a trump child. Look at that. Thats the same style trump would have if he had human hair. Thats exactly the same thing. And geert doesnt just look like trump and talks like trump, he tweets like donald trump. This is an actual tweet. He tweeted this, make the netherlandss great again. At what point are we going to acknowledge, people, that great means language. Its coded language. Just like trump, geert doesnt mince words with other countries. Today i have a message for the the turks. Your government is fooling you into believing that one day you will become a member of the european union. Well, forget it. You are no europeans. And you will never be. So, turkey, stay away from us. You are not welcome here. Trevor man. This guy is so mean. How would he like it if someone spoke to him like that . Said, hey, you look like a middleaged, floating in a river. He wouldnt like that. The only thing that gives you some solace is the fact that no matter how tough a dutch politician talks, you know that he still has to ride home on his bicycle afterwards. laughter stay out of my country. Blingbling. Its easy to laugh at this nigh gooi and not take him seriously. They were bigtime colonizers and they invented apartheid and clogs. Yeah. Should have probably ended on apartheid. But actually you know what . Apartheid is over, but clogs still live on. Yeah. And, honestly, i dont know why i was so surprised to discover that theres a dutch trump. I mean, trump already sounds look a dutch word for something you order from an amsterdam prostitute. Does. Trump. It sounds like that. You want trump . Okay, but i need 600 for a bucket of human feces and a snorkel. Im not using my snorkel this time. Its not just in europe. Even in the east, the trumpiness is. In the president ial race, the mayor Rodrigo Duterte is expected to land a big victory. The donald trump of the philippines. His speeches won his plenty of fans. Hes being seen as the alternative to traditional candidates in the philippines. He often bragz of sexual conquests. He offered himself as a gift to the young bride. translated i dont have any money to give, but i could give your wife something else, and this is for the wives only. Men, im sorry, but you dont get anything because im not a queer. Trevor okay, thats thats obscene and homophobic, and, also, bleep way to cover up the fact that you forgot to bring a real gift to the wedding. I guess all the registry items were taken. What a way to remember your wedding day. We exchanged rings and the president said hed smash me and not you. Aaah. You know in 10 years somebody is going to use that as ammunition a fight. Im sorry, which one of the us did the president want to bleep again . Exactly. Were going with the blue sheets. And if you thought that was the only time this guy talked about his dick on the campaign trail, are you mistaken. translated my two girlfriends right now, i pick you up at thing at the boarding, and then we go to a hotel. Just for a short time. Now that im olding i can only do short time. Just one thrust and thats it. If theres no viagra, ill have a difficult time. Trevor you know, i never thought id say this, but thank you, donald trump, for only talking about your penis in the abstract. And, also, i dont want to pry, but if your dick doesnt work, maybe you dont need two girlfriends. laughter i cant be tied down, babe. I have so much sexual disappointment to give. laughter so just like trump, duterte is loud, unpredictable, and dick obsessed. Oh, and in addition to that, he brags about his terrible brutality. Trap tranthe extreme lawandorder platform has many fans. He is promising to bring contact capital punishment. And vowing to protect police and soldiers if they follow his shoot to kill orders. Are there any funeral parlors down here . Now is the time to set one up. Ill supply the dead bodies. Trevor how did this man win the presidency of anything, let alone a country of 100 million people. It makes you wonder who he was running against, sauron . A syringe full of aids . What it shows sualthough america might have its own set of problems right now, dont forget, a lot of those problems can exist everywhere in the world. So rather than try and flee, maybe you do need to make America Great again. Because it turns out, theres a lot of places like home. Well be right back. How do they make starburst taste so juicy . They use wicked small fighter jets to shoot the juiciness into every starburst. [ pilot ] its about to get juicy. Whoo i feel so aliii. It takes guts. [ female announcer ] starburst. Unexplainably juicy. Get rid of weeds with the new scotts turf builder weed and feed. Youre dead now twice as effective, scotts weed grip Particle Technology strangles weeds with the death grip while greening your lawn. Get 10 off at participating retailers. While greening your lawn. catchy upbe music well this is my equation for success. I developed the 4 ps. Politeness, patience, practice and. Promotion heeyaw heeyaw bees not included. Ms new coffee nut m ms they wont make you shake. New chili nut m ms mouth will not catch fire. Try m all and vote for your favorite take any day, and squeeze some magic into it. cheers and applause . Trevor welcome back to the daily show. You may have been distracted lately. Its getting warmer out. Youre busy celebrating cinco de mayo, and face de mayo, and i think you may have a drinking problem. The point is while everyone is focused on donald trump, the democratic race is still on. And last night, one more state was feeling the bern. A big win for Bernie Sanders in West Virginia. Bernie sanders winning big last night. Another primary win for Bernie Sanders is prolonging the democratic race. Trevor thats right, losing isnt in bernies vocabulary, and neither is hair brush. You know, just when you think sanders is finished, he bursts back to life. Hes got the tenacity of john snow and the body of what the red woman actually looks like. And were not talking about a narrow victory here. Sanders beat clinton by 15 points, 5136 . 43 of sanders voters said theyll defect to trump in the fall if clinton is the nominee. Trevor wow what . I mean, i knew some of bernies voters up young, but i didnt realize they were children. Like, fine im just going to go vote for trump hillary is stupid and she smells like benghazi why would you say that . Youre going to vote for trump . I mean, bernie had a great win here and the truth is this particular win was kind of inevitable because West Virginia democrats arent theyre really an interesting case. You know, they always seem to be voting against candidates more than they vote for them. And right now, they hate hillary, because in march, she said she would get rid of all the coal jobs, or as theyre known in West Virginia, the jobs. And back in the 2012 primary, even though obama was a sitting president , 41 of West Virginia democrats voted instead for a fellow named keith judd, a man who tried to extort money by sending a pack package that include a semen stained playboy. They would rather vote for a criminal who doesnt know how to ejaculate away from a magazine. Hillary won West Virginia by flon points because the guy worse than her upon barack obama. West virginia hated obama since they found out he wasnt a white guy covered in coal. Lets just wipe this off. Oh, my god its not coming off its not coming off so Bernie Sanders has definitely been on a roll lately, and theres one person who has noticed. Donald trump this morning reacting to his wins last night tweeting, i dont want to hit crazy Bernie Sanders too hard yet because i love watching what hee is doing to crooked hillary. Crazy bernie is the new nickname. I call him crazy bernie because hes not very good. Trevor why dont you just call him crazy because you think hes crazy. Thats a strange reason, donald trump. Its also impressive, though. Donald trump gave bernie a nickname and thats how you know he takes him seriously as a threat. Although crazy bernie is not donalds best work. Im sure you could have done better with that. America tried that insoul their bread and people still love that bleep . So, donald trump, you need to work harder. And it turns out donald trump isnt the only one in the nickname game. The d. N. C. With a nickname of its own for donald trump, dubbing him dangerous donald. laughter trevor first off, what are you doing, d. N. C. . You realize that trump has tricked you into playing his game. And i get why you want to play it, because its a lot more fun than your regular game, which is to be a rational adult, but any time you play trumps game on your own turf, you lose. In this case you picked dangerous donald, which just makes him sound cool. You sound look a mom warning your kid. Dont you go off with that dangerous boy on his Harley Davidson and his shirt and tank top and those muscles and hes so where are you going why did you drop your panties . There are so many other d words you could have chosen for donald trump, deceitful, dumb ass, dickhead, dur aingeed, dufus. Or if you try to beat him at his game, you can add another d word to that, definitely going to be president. Well be right back. cheers and applause i would like three weeks vacation. Two is standard. Im not standard. Three weeks. Ok. In my gentlemans quarters, we sip champagne and peruse my art collection, which consists of renaissance classics and more avantgarde pieces. Yes, i am rich. Thats why i drink the champagne of beers. The Gillette Mach 3 turbo still feels better after 10 shaves than a disposable on its first. Mach 3 blades have twice the coatings. For a closer shave with zero redness. Get an incredible experience shave after shave after shave. 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With premium pepperoni and 100 real cheese. Ding hot pockets wendy hates dirty lawn furniture. Thats why she uses scotts outdoor cleaner plus oxiclean. It cleans all of wendys lawn furniture without damaging any of wendys lawn. Scotts. Its good out here. Scotts. cheers and applause trevor welcome back to the daily show. My guest tonight is the founder and editor in chief of fivethirtyeight. Com. Please welcome nate silver. cheers and applause . Trevor thank you for being here. Of course,. Trevor thank you so much. Everyone in the building is such a big fan of yours. Well, im a big fan of the show. Trevor yeah, you are, you are a math rock star. Thats what you are. We have a long history this, show and fivethirtyeight. High moments, low moments. Trevor lets talk about some of the high moments that you have been experiencing. I mean, you what what are your numbers right now in terms of predicting correctly how the races have panned out . Were 52 out of 57 in individual states so far. Trevor thats a high number. But we were skeptical of trumps chances for most of the last year. A lot of people were, but we were among the skeptics. Trevor youre a data journalist, and so i guess the pressure is on you to get most things you get most of your theres a little bit of a thing where in baseball if the umpire makes a bad call, thats when you notice. You know, yeah, i mean, we tend to get things right, and i think we have a pretty good record of saying when is something really kind of crazy and unusual versus a tossup, where you have a close race. We havent seen Something Like the trump nomination on 38, at least in my life. You have to harken back, i think, to the 60s, almost. But everything we thought we knew about politics was kind of wrong this cycle. laughter we thought the republicans had fun, you know, they would have a dance with the beginning rism, for example, or the herman cane but in the end kim back and pick a sensible, right wing candidate. And they were way crazier than i imagined. Trevor are there any numbers that help you understand why that happened . Or is this a complete outlier situation . Or is donald trump just a parallel universe happening to us right now . I know the segment earlier about politicians in europe, so you do see people like this in other places around the globe. And maybe one thing that surprised me the most about trump is the whole kind of what they call the three legged stool where you have fiscal conservatism and family values and americas leader of the free world. Trump doesnt care about that stool. He just cares about enraging people and the strongest correlate of trumps support that weve been able to find is the number of racist google searches in an area. This is not trevor what are racist google searches . I mean, use your imagination. Yeah. laughter . Trevor hmmm. And there are some myths. People say, for example, that, oh, trump is about the working class. We ran some numbers on this. Trumps median voter is making about 72,000 a year in household income. Trevor thats a really interesting point because a lot of people say trump is appealing to the working class. Trump is appealing to the man at the bottom, the downtrodden. But a lot of wealthy people, people above what people consider theyre not kasich voters or rubio voters who are make lots and lots of money. Theyre people who are upper middle class and i think feel as though their moment is passing them by. And, of course, its overwhelmingly trevor what is thur moment, the apocalypse . What does that mean . Why would they vote for trump, though . It doesnt seem like you know, when you look at the polls, which are always changing, which are always moving around, this is what you have to do all the time, how do you make sense of the noise . Because theres a trump that says i mean, theres a poll that says trump is six point or eight points away from hillary, but on the other hand, they go, theres, like, a secret poll where people dont talk to somebody, and if people dont have to speak to somebody then they support trump. Theres a theory that people people dont want to declare their support for trump. In the primaries that wasnt true. He underperformed in some states, like iowa, overperformed in new york and other states. If you ever have met a trump supporter, not the quiet type, necessarily. Not the silent majority. Its the noisy plurality. Trevor im picturing the trump supporter you met. I used to play poker for a living and the phrase in poker is, a chip and a chair. Means he has one of two tickets to a dance, and a lot of things can happen wars can happen, recessions can happen. There was a list of biggest Global Threats and number nine was a trump presidency. What if the polls are close and theres a Global Financial panic and trump wins because of the Global Financial panic about trump winning. Im not epityler kidding about this. There are feedback exploops trevor you look terrified. laughter im loving this. You are literally terrified. You are the de facto data journalist, and you you are terrified right now. Are you seeing something in the numbers youre not telling us . Its may. Hillary is ahead right now. If you won the election today Hillary Clinton would win right now for sure. But Michael Dukakis was leading in 1998 in may. Bill clinton was way behind in 1992. So things can shift. I do think, ultimately, trump is going to face demographic headwindses. If you look at the democratic base, which means plaque people, hispanic people, and increasingly asian people, pie the way, plus white cosmopolitan liberals, probably people in this room, probably. Trevor thats you guys, the cool people, yeah. The cool people. The other half, is women, and that i think is the problem donald trump might have trouble getting over is the 70 unfavorable rating among women. Trevor but the women love him, though. Well, certain types of women. Hes had several wives. Thats not enough for a majority, though, unfortunately. laughter . Trevor let me ask you a question. You have the numbers. You believe in the the numbers. If you knew it was ending, would you tell us or would you get a head start for yourself . laughter . So i wouldnt move to canada. Trevor why not . Im a patriot, trevor. I might move to bellingham, washington, or something, just right over the border pup dont have to renounce your citizenship, and a 15minute drive if anything goes awry. Trevor thats admirable of you, i like that. Still in the country but one foot out. Thank you so much for being here. Nate silver, everybody. Well be right back. applause this is a fingerprint. And with touch id it does way more than unlock your phone. 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With fans clamoring for our next hit album, we return to our extravagant private studio, where we turn gold into platinum. Yes, i am rich. Thats why i drink the champagne of beers. cheers and applause . Trevor thats our show for tonight. Join us tomorrow night at 11 00. Here it is, your moment of zen. Would you like to enjoy some salad. I might be. You have been very impressive. Everybody wants a yoga girl, right, jason . Thats right. And i know you want me to toss your salad, too, dont you. On captioning sponsored by Comedy Central